460ch4

Which of the following values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the SLOWEST to forecast errors?

0.10

A seasonal index for a monthly series is about to be calculated on the basis of three years' accumulation of data. The three previous July values were 110, 150, and 130. The average demand over all months during the three-year time period was 190 . What is the approximate seasonal index for July?

0.684

A forecasting method has produced the following over the past five months. What is the mean absolute deviation? Actual Forecast Error |Error| 10 11 -1 1 8 10 -2 2 10 8 2 2 6 6 0 0 9 8 1 1

1.2

Given an actual demand this period of 103, a forecast value for this period of 99, and an alpha of .4, what is the exponential smoothing forecast for next period?

100.6

Demand for a certain product is forecast to be 800 units per month, averaged over all 12 months of the year. The product follows a seasonal pattern, for which the January monthly index is 1.25. What is the seasonally-adjusted sales forecast for January?

1000 units

Suppose that the last four months of sales were 8, 10, 15, and 9 units, respectively. Suppose further that the last four forecasts were 5, 6, 11, and 12 units, respectively. What is the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) of these forecasts?

3.5

Given forecast errors of -1, 4, 8, and -3, what is the mean absolute deviation?

4

What is the forecast for May using a four-month moving average? Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. April 39 36 40 42 48 46

44

Given an actual demand this period of 61, a forecast for this period of 58, and an alpha of 0.3, what would the forecast for the next period be using exponential smoothing?

58.9

What forecasting systems combine the intelligence of multiple supply chain partners?

CPFR

Which of the following is NOT a step in the forecasting process?

Eliminate any assumptions

Which of the following statements comparing exponential smoothing to the weighted moving average technique is TRUE?

Exponential smoothing typically requires less record keeping of past data.

Which of the following is TRUE regarding the two smoothing constants of the Forecast Including Trend (FIT) model?

Their values are determined independently.

If two variables were perfectly correlated, what would the coefficient of correlation r equal?

a. 0 b. -1 c. 1 d. B or C

Taco Bell's unique employee scheduling practices are partly the result of using

a. point-of-sale computers to track food sales in 15 minute intervals. b. multiple regression. c. a six-week moving average forecasting technique. d. focus forecasting. e. A and C are both correct.

Computer monitoring of tracking signals and self-adjustment if a signal passes a preset limit is characteristic of

adaptive smoothing

Which of the following techniques uses variables such as price and promotional expenditures, which are related to product demand, to predict demand?

associative models

The last four weekly values of sales were 80, 100, 105, and 90 units. The last four forecasts were 60, 80, 95, and 75 units. These forecasts illustrate:

bias.

As compared to long-range forecasts, short-range forecasts:

deal with less comprehensive issues supporting management decisions.

Which time-series model uses BOTH past forecasts and past demand data to generate a new forecast?

exponential smoothing

A forecast based on the previous forecast plus a percentage of the forecast error is a(n):

exponential smoothing forecast

A fundamental distinction between trend projection and linear regression is that

in trend projection the independent variable is time; in linear regression the independent variable need not be time, but can be any variable with explanatory power.

For a given product demand, the time-series trend equation is 53 - 4x. The negative sign on the slope of the equation:

is an indication that product demand is declining

A six-month moving average forecast is generally better than a three-month moving average forecast if demand

is rather stable.

Yamaha manufactures which set of products with complementary demands to address seasonal variations?

jet skis and snowmobiles

One use of short-range forecasts is to determine:

job assignments.

The primary purpose of the mean absolute deviation (MAD) in forecasting is to:

measure forecast accuracy

A forecast with a time horizon of about 3 months to 3 years is typically called a:

medium-range forecast

Which of the following is not a type of qualitative forecasting?

moving average

Which time-series model below assumes that demand in the next period will be equal to the most recent period's demand?

naïve approach

Which of the following is not present in a time series?

operational variations

The two general approaches to forecasting are:

qualitative and quantitative.

The tracking signal is the:

ratio of cumulative error / MAD.

Time-series data may exhibit which of the following behaviors?

seasonality trend cycles random variations They may exhibit all of the above.

Forecasts are usually classified by time horizon into which three categories?

short-range, medium-range, and long-range

Which of the following is NOT a characteristic of exponential smoothing?

weights each historical value equally

What two numbers are contained in the daily report to the CEO of Walt Disney Parks & Resorts regarding the six Orlando parks?

yesterday's forecasted attendance and yesterday's actual attendance