ATS Modules 6-9

Over the next several decades, we expect much more warming that the global average in the following regions (check all that apply)

- Arctic Ocean - Eurasia - North America

The Fourth US National Climate Assessment found that the frequency of very heavy precipitation has (check all that apply)

- Been associated with a greater incidence of mesoscale convective systems - Increased over most of the United States with the largest increases in the northeast

Long before sea levels rise enough to permanently inundate a city, they will almost certainly (check all that apply)

- Cause nearly constant nuisance flooding ("sunny day floods") - Drive people away from coasts by making catastrophic flooding much more common

Observational records of land surface temperature (check all that apply)

- Consistently show about 1 Celsius of average warming since 1975 - Show much more rapid warming than in the global average

Emission scenarios for projection of future climate in models were formerly called Representative Concertation Pathways (RCPs) and are now called Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 6.0 indicate that CO2 emissions will peak in which years and then decline thereafter?

2020, 2040, 2070

Over the past 50 years or so, about what percent of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion has been taken up by land plants and soils?

25%

Over the past 50 years or so, about what percent of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion has been taken up by the oceans?

25%

Storm surge refers to

A dome of ocean water pushed ashore by high winds during a storm

The Fourth US National Climate Assessment found that record high temperatures have been more frequent than record low temperatures in the 21st Century by about

A ratio of 3-to-1

CO2 emissions due to manufacturing and shipping exported goods from China accounts for what percentage of the amount emitted within Chinese borders?

About 10%

Emissions of CO2 due to fossil fuel combustion are

About the same in India as in the European Union

Emissions of CO2 due to fossil fuel combustion are

About twice as much in the United States as in the European Union

For at least 60 years, carbon in land ecosystems has

Accumulated as plants grow faster than they decompose

Globally, the percentage of people living in extreme poverty (defined by the UN as earning less than $2 per day in inflation-adjusted income) has

Fallen by a factor of 10 since 1800

In the global average over the past 50 years, the energy intensity of income (kw-hr of energy used per dollar of income earned) has

Fallen by about 40%

In the United States over the past 50 years, the energy intensity of income (kw-hr of energy used per dollar of income earned) has

Fallen by about 60%

Since 1980, the amount of CO2 emitted by China per dollar of income earned has

Fallen by about a factor of 5

Among countries, the rate of income growth (percent per year) is

Fastest in low-income countries, slower in middle-income countries, and slowest in the richest countries

Greenhouse plants grown in elevated CO2 typically

Grow faster and larger than usual

Dissolved CO2 in the surface ocean is

Isolated from deep water because warm water floats on cold water

Rapid warming in the far north has led to

Net CO2 uptake due to invasion of trees and woody shrubs into tundra system

As the world's climate warms, how much do oceans warm compared to land?

Oceans warm less because of evaporative cooling

Over the past decade, global energy production by

Solar and wind has overtaken coal

Maps of annual precipitation simulated by global climate models tend to get

The overall geographic pattern about right but the details wrong on regional scales

Before the industrial revolution atmospheric CO2 was

pretty steady for thousands of years

The Fourth US National Climate Assessment found that annual precipitation has (check all that apply)

- Decreased in much of the west, southwest, and southeast but increased in the Great Plains, Midwest, and Northeast - Increased most in the spring and fall

In addition to changes in rainfall, a warmer climate generally promotes more evaporation which leads to changes in soil moisture, reservoir storage, and river flow. Which of the following regions are expected to experience much drier soils? (Select all that apply)

- Europe - Southern Africa - The United States - South America

The US National Climate Assessment is (check all that apply)

- Finds that virtually all observed climate change in the past 250 years is caused by human activities - Similar to Assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), but focusing on the United States and written in simpler language for public audiences

Observations of ice sheets made by laser altimeters on satellites show (check all that apply)

- Ice may be accumulating across most of Antarctica, but the rates are very slow - Some of the fastest ice loss in the world is occurring in West Antarctica - Greenland is rapidly losing ice, especially in its south

Observed trends in precipitation over land since 1950 show (check all that apply)

- Increased rainfall over the United States and Western Europe - Decreased rainfall over the Mediterranean region and East Asia

Warmer climates promote wildfires because (select all that apply)

- Longer warm seasons mean forests become water stressed earlier in the summer - Fire weather (hot, dry, & windy) occurs more often in warm years - Warm air increases water use by forests and depletes soil moisture

As the global average temperature rises, which regions will likely receive less rainfall? (select all that apply)

- Mediterranean Region - Central America and the Amazon Basin - Southwestern USA

As the global average temperature rises, which regions will likely receive more rainfall? (select all that apply)

- Northern North America and Asia - Arctic and Antarctic - Central Africa and the Arabian Sea

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

- Publishes conservative and authoritative reports that are difficult to read - Periodically assesses published climate studies but does not conduct research on its own

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (check all that apply)

- Recent changes in the climate are widespread, rapid, and intensifying, and unprecedented in thousands of years - It is indisputable that human activities are causing climate change, making extreme climate events, including heat waves, heavy rainfall, and droughts, more frequent and severe

Observations of global average sea level show

- Rising water since the late 19th century with some acceleration in recent decades - The ocean is about 200 mm higher than at the beginning of the historical record

Observations of summertime land temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere since 1950 show that (check all that apply)

- Temperatures that formerly occurred on the hottest 1% of days are more than 10x more frequent now - Overall warming of about 1 standard deviation has occurred

Observations of global average sea level show (check all that apply)

- The ocean is about 200 mm higher than at the beginning of the historical record - Rising water since the late 19th century with some acceleration in recent decades

Major processes represented in climate models include (check all that apply)

- Variations in wind speed and direction. - Formation of cloud droplets and precipitation - Infrared radiation

The observed extent of summer sea ice cover in the Arctic Ocean shows (check all that apply)

- a decrease of about 50% since 1950 - accelerating ice loss in recent decades

Statisticians express variations of many quantities using a "normal distribution" that is often referred to as a "bell curve." A shift of the normal distribution to the right leads to (check all that apply)

- more frequent values that are above the previous average - much less frequent values that are far below the previous average - much more frequent values that are far above the previous average

Observed geographic patterns of warming since 1900 show (check all that apply)

- more warming on land than over the oceans - more warming over Canada than the United States

Under a low-emission scenario like RCP2.6, how much additional warming should we expect in North America by 2100 compared to today?

0.0 Celsius

Depending on the emission scenario, how much sea level rise us likely to by the year 2100?

0.4 m for RCP2.6 and 0.7 m for RCP 8.5

Climate models project how much warming (in degrees Celsius) in the year 2300 relative to preindustrial conditions using the following emission scenarios: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5 Incorrect answer:

0.5, 2.5, 8.0

Climate models project how much warming (in degrees Celsius) in the year 2100 relative to preindustrial conditions using the following emission scenarios: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5

1, 2, 4

The turnover (mixing) time of the deep ocean is about

1,000 years

The Fourth US National Climate Assessment found that annual average temperatures in the United States increased by about how much from 1895 to 2016?

1.8 Fahrenheit

Under RCP 8.5, global mean temperature is likely to increase 4 Celsius above preindustrial conditions by the year 2100. In that case how much warming would the middle of North America experience?

10 Fahrenheit

Depending on the emission scenario, how much winter snow cover is likely to be lost by the year 2100?

10% for RCP2.6 and 30% for RCP 8.5

Typical global models divide the world into grid boxes whose width is about

100 km for climate projection and 10 km for weather forecasting

Using the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario, what is the projected radiative forcing of climate in the year 2200

12.5 Watts per square meter

How high was the storm surge flooding above mean low water in New York City during Hurricane Sandy in October 2012?

14 feet

About what percentage of atmospheric CO2 is taken up by global photosynthesis?

15%

The Fourth US National Climate Assessment found that recent decades have been warmer than any time in at least the past

1500 years

Permafrost is permanently frozen soil found in far northern regions. Depending on the emission scenario, how much permafrost is likely to be lost by the year 2100 compared to today?

30% for RCP2.6 and 85% for RCP 8.5

Over the past 50 years or so, about what percent of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion remains in the atmosphere?

50%

Among countries, the mortality rate of children under 5 years of age varies by a factor of

60x

According to a 2011 study by the US National Research Council, wildfires are likely to burn how many more acres per year in Colorado due to global warming?

656% per degree Celsius

About what percentage of the global uptake of CO2 by photosynthesis is balanced by CO2 emitted due to respiration and decomposition?

98%

During the 21st Century,

All of the above

Nitrogen is a nutrient for land ecosystems that

All of the above

Rising CO2 can lead to net carbon removal from the atmosphere as long as

All of the above

In China, CO2 emissions from burning coal are

Almost 10x as much as from burning gas

Globally, CO2 emissions from burning coal are

Almost twice as much as from burning gas

Three main components of every global climate model are

Atmosphere, ocean, and land

Historical changes in land use patterns over the 20th Century caused carbon to

Build up in wealthy countries as forests regrew after farms were abandoned

The discovery of rising CO2, its seasonal cycle, and carbon sinks were made

C. D. Keeling in 1960

The following are all known to explain net carbon uptake by land ecosystems

CO2 fertilization, nitrogen deposition, forest regrowth, and boreal warming

Since 1970, global energy production by

Coal and gas has roughly tripled

Sea ice in the Arctic is at its minimum for the year. By 2100, how much is Arctic sea ice likely to decline relative to today (depending on the emission scenario)?

Correct answer: 50% for RCP2.6 and 100% for RCP 8.5

Global climate models are:

Deterministic models based on the application of known physical principals to project the current climate state forward in time

In India, the CO2 emissions intensity of income (kg CO2 emitted per dollar of income earned) is about

Equal to that of the United States

The absorption of heat radiation by carbon dioxide in air and its important role in determining Earth's climate was first studied by

Eunice Foote in 1856

Across Southern Europe, droughts that historically were the worst in a century are expected to occur how often in the 2070s under a medium-high emission climate scenario?

Every 10 years

After fossil fuel combustion ends, CO2 in the atmosphere will

Gradually equilibrate with the deep ocean over thousands of years

As the global average temperature rises, what will happen to the global average rate of precipitation?

It will increase

The term "greenhouse effect" was first used to describe the effect of selective absorption of outgoing radiation on Earth's climate by

Joseph Fourier in 1822

The energy intensity of income (kw-hr of energy used per dollar of income earned) tends to be

Least in low-income countries, highest in middle-income countries, and moderate in the richest countries

In India, the CO2 emissions per person is

Less than half the global average

In India, CO2 emissions from burning coal are

More than 10x as much as from burning gas

In the United States, the CO2 emissions per person is

More than three times the global average

According to the Kaya Identity, CO2 emissions can be understood as the product of

Population, income per capita, the energy intensity of income, and the carbon intensity of energy

Per person, emissions of CO2 due to fossil fuel combustion are

Slightly more in China than in the European Union

Emission scenarios for projection of future climate in models were formerly called Representative Concertation Pathways (RCPs) and are now called Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Each is designated by a number that indicates the

Radiative forcing by the enhanced greenhouse effect in 2100 (in Watts per square meter)

Scientists first suggested that land ecosystems were accumulating biomass based on

Radioactive carbon in the oceans from nuclear bomb tests in the 1960s

Experimental fumigation of outdoor forests with elevated CO2 has revealed that

Temporarily accelerated growth slows down due to nitrogen limitation after a few years

The amount of CO2 which can dissolve in the oceans is controlled by

The same chemistry that makes fizz in soft drinks and beer

Decades before it was observed in the real world, simple climate models in the 1960s predicted accurately that

The upper atmosphere would cool while the lower atmosphere warmed as CO2 was added to the air

TRUE OR FALSE: Climate models use the same equations as weather forecast models.

True

Compared to reconstructions of global average temperatures measured by thermometers since the 1800s, global climate models generally simulate

about the right amount of warming

Dissolved CO2 in seawater derived from fossil fuel combustion is

almost totally confined to the warm surface ocean

Climate models handle future emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases by

considering a wide range of self-consistent emission scenarios for the future that are developed by social scientists

The rate of population growth (percent per year) is now about

half what it was 50 years ago

The height of storm surge flooding in most coastal locations

increases logarithmically with the return time of the flood (10 year, 100 year, 1000 year)

Studies of past drought in the western USA using tree rings suggest that Western droughts due to global warming are likely to be

much worse than any droughts the region has seen in more than 1000 years

Compared to reconstructions of global average temperatures measured by thermometers since the 1800s, global climate models generally simulate...

too much warming when only greenhouse gas forcing is used, and not enough warming when no greenhouse gas forcing is used