BitU M28
What nations are expected to suffer the most severe near-term consequences from climate change?
Africa is the continent most vulnerable to climate change, the central regions to be specific. Some of the other most susceptible areas include India, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq.
What natural processes in Earth's past are responsible for the fossil fuels we burn today to power our civilization? If these fuels represent stored energy, how was this energy captured?
All fossil fuels are the product of stored solar energy which provided the exogenous input to allow plants and animals on earth to grow. The chemistry formula CH4 + 2O2 --> CO2 + 2H2O, also named as combustion reaction, shows how fossil fuel produces carbon dioxide.
Why might we be concerned with surviving the Anthropocene?
An Anthropocene is a period during which human activity has been the dominant influence on climate and the environment. We would obviously be concerned with surviving this because if we don't, the planet will face drastic consequences: coastal flooding, desertification, shifts of arable land, mass extinction, extreme, unpredictable weather shifts, mass migration, and misery.
In the "civilizational evolution" models of Adam Frank and collaborators, does a transition to clean energy sources prevent civilizational collapse in all cases?
No, in the models/graphs that they have shown, a resource change cannot overcome planetary dynamics, once they get past a certain threshold.
Why would a nuclear exchange that decimates 100 to 1000 cities (or more) be considered an existential threat to humanity?
If there was a nuclear exchange that decimated 100 to 1000 cities, this would be considered an existential threat to humanity because it meets both required criteria. The first being that it would threaten one or more bases of civilization, and the second being that if it were to happen, it would exist and persist due to the nature and power of nuclear weapons.
List some examples of "close calls" involving nuclear weapons.
Some close calls involving nuclear threats include the Cuban missile crisis, in which President Kennedy was incredibly close to launching nuclear warheads in retaliation to Russia planting warheads in Cuba, which is in very close proximity to the United States. Additionally, Stanislav Petrov chose not to report what was thought to be 5 American ballistic missiles incoming towards Russia, if he had reported this to the authorities they very likely would've retaliated back to America and started a war but luckily the radar was faulty, and Stanislav choose not to report the incoming missiles.
Relate the parable of the "Tragedy of the Commons" to the situation of contemporary human civilization.
The "tragedy of the commons" is the notion that individuals consume a common resource to the point that it is overwhelmed by the demand, with not enough individuals considering replenishing or investing in ways to guarantee that the resource is not depleted. This same situation is happening right now, with the depletion of natural environments and resources that are being destroyed for economic profit all across the globe.
What is the "Anthropocene"?
The Anthropocene is the term for a new geological epoch that we are in right now. The Anthropocene denotes the period of time where human activity has a significant impact on geology and ecosystems. Because of this, there is a hot debate between geologists and environmentalists regarding what to call the time period we are in right now. An example of human impact includes climate change.
List some ways in which we might halt or reverse the recent dramatic increase in carbon dioxide concentration in Earth's atmosphere.
We can reverse the effects of carbon dioxide concentrations by eliminating deforestation, reducing emissions from electricity and automobiles, cleaning up factories, making electricity more efficient, and converting or replacing inefficient and small power plans into electricity systems.
Since the conclusion of World War II, has the US ever used nuclear weapons?
no but we threaten
Since the conclusion of World War II, has the US ever attacked an opposing nation with nuclear weapons?
no but we threaten
Does climate change reasonably present an existential threat to human civilization? To humanity as a species?
yes lmao
List some likely near-term consequences of carbon dioxide-induced climate change.
Coastal areas will flood due to global sea levels rising. More extreme and unpredictable weather everywhere. Desertification in Sub-Saharan Africa and Southwest United States. Increased disease transmission. Mass extinctions, especially for larger mammals, but also for a lot of smaller mammals and plant species.
What nations are chiefly responsible for carbon dioxide emissions, historically (integrated over time) and currently (per annum)?
Historical: The United States Currently: China
In the "civilizational evolution" models of Adam Frank and collaborators, what happens to the populations of planets that do not effectively and proactively transition to clean energy sources?
In his 2018 publication, Frank hypothesizes that civilizations who fail to transition away from fossil fuels are doomed to die off, and the remnants of their once-powerful civilization would return to dust. He questions what geological remnants a past civilization would leave, and that possibly this has occurred on other planets already.
Why is it important to avoid substantial further increases in the carbon dioxide concentration in Earth's atmosphere?
Increases in carbon dioxide can create many tragic events, especially if the temperature exceeds a 1.5 degree increase or if carbon dioxide concentrations reach 560ppm (the climate danger threshold).
List some aspects of climate change that make it a particularly difficult challenge for humans to confront effectively.
It is difficult for people to deal with social issues and global epidemics that do not directly influence them. If the issue has external and scientific factors such as thermal inertia, there is nothing a person can do to help. The issues of global warming are largely statistical and happen on large historical scales. This means that we have faced issues like climate change for many years and the effects of our actions are not recognized immediately. Individually, our impact seems helpless.
In addition to transitioning to clean energy sources, what other sorts of changes seem necessary for our civilization to withstand the likely consequences of climate change?
On top of using clean energy sources we must stop deforestation to slow the advancements of climate change, more forests/plants means that more CO2 is pulled out of the atmosphere. We also have to work on reducing the emissions from automobiles, whether that is just finding more efficient ways to power vehicles or moving to electric cars. Another large component of CO2 production if manufacturing; we have to find ways to make industries emit less emissions. One of these industries is the cement industry. To make cement calcium carbonate is super heated to make lime, a key component in the mix for cement, but a by product of this is the release of CO2. This along with many others are the industries that need to find more efficient ways to produce their products.
List two ways in which humans have overcome natural limits to the increase of our population on Earth.
One way that humans have overcome our natural limits in population is with modern medicine. Diseases used to take out large chunks of the population at a time, which significantly limited how much a population was able to grow. Now with medicine. there are many fewer deaths due to disease, there is less of an impact on the human population caused by disease. Another way that humans have overcome our natural limits in population is with technological advances, especially in farming. A lack of food prevented a larger sustained population in the past. However, with technology and the advent of things like fertilizers, mass producing food has become much easier. With more food available, larger populations are also now possible.
Why does the carbon dioxide concentration in Earth's atmosphere reliably decrease every Northern spring and summer, and increase every Northern fall and winter?
The CO2 levels decrease every year when the northern hemisphere experiences spring and summer because that is when the majority of plant life on earth returns to life, converting larger amounts of CO2 into O2. On the other hand when the northern hemisphere is in the winter the opposite is happening. With mach of the vegetation dying off for the winter there is less plant life to convert the CO2 back into O2 so the CO2 levels will rise.
What is the chief reason why the human population is no longer constrained by the supply of food?
The chief reason we have been able to overcome natural limits to the supply of food is due to the technological advances of the post-1800 time period. These technological advances radically changed this natural limit.
What is the chief reason why carbon dioxide levels in Earth's atmosphere are increasing from year to year?
The main reason as to why CO2 levels are increasing year to year is the use of fossil fuels and the Earth's increasing population.
Was the movie "Dr. Strangelove" (1964) correct to be concerned about the possibility that unauthorized attacks with nuclear weapons might lead to global devastation?
The movie "Dr. Strangelove" was right to be concerned about the possibility that unauthorized attacks with nuclear weapons might lead to global devastation. One example would be the Cuban Missile Crisis, which occurred two years before the movie was released (and which the movie drew inspiration from). That event already showed that unauthorized attacks with nuclear weapons were already a distinct possibility. In the 80s, the Soviets created a "Dead Hand" system that would automatically launch nuclear weapons in the case of an attack. This system was strikingly similar to the system that was described in Dr. Strangelove, displaying how accurate some of the predictions made in the movie were. This system was only one "Doomsday Machine" that existed (with a Doomsday Machine being anything that is able to destroy over 100 cities), so global devastation via nuclear weapon was certainly possible (even if not probable).
What sort of examples can bolster arguments for the critical nature of an existential threat?
The nature of the greatest existential threat is a threat that is current, has had prevelance within the past, and would affect more than just one country or civilization. We must consider nuclear weapons when understanding existential threats. There is a constant fear and threat of a nuclear winter, and nuclear weapons are possessed by many countries. There have been close calls of the past, and a past of tension and distrust between countries holding nuclear weapons (the Cold War for example). Such close calls include the famous Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 along with many others. The United States has even used nuclear weapons in the past on Japan causing the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people. This "dance with death" highlights the critical nature of an existential threat.
List two important criteria for any existential threat to be considered critical.
There are 2 criteria for the greatest existential threats to humanity: 1) It should threaten one or more important bases of civilization 2) It should exist and persist (non-hypothetical) Cuban missile crisis?
Name some ways in which Stephanie Burt's poem, "Dinosaur: A Love Poem," plays with our notions of human and non-human intelligence, and individual versus collective fates.
This poem plays with our notions of human and non-human intelligence and individual vs. collective fates in several ways. First, it is clear that the narrator of the poem is a dinosaur, though it is written in a way that human poets usually write. Standard turns of phrase like "heart flutter,"mouth dried out," and "get hot" become dinosaur-related phrases, like "feathers flutter," "thermoregulation fails," and "my tongue dries out inside my jaws." The reader recognize the meanings of these phrases even as they are written in a dinosaur context, and even sympathize with them. In this way, the poem plays with our notions of human and non-human intelligence.
