Ch.8 Finance
Payback and Internal Rate of Return. A project has perpetual cash flows of C per period, a cost of I, and a required return of R. What is the relationship between the project's payback and its IRR? What implications does your answer have for long-lived projects with relatively constant cash flows?
8. For a project with future cash flows that are an annuity: Payback = I / C And the IRR is: 0 = - I + C / IRR Solving the IRR equation for IRR, we get: IRR = C / I Notice this is just the reciprocal of the payback. So: IRR = 1 / Payback For long-lived projects with relatively constant cash flows, the sooner the project pays back, the greater is the IRR.
Internal Rate of Return. In a previous chapter, we discussed the yield to maturity (YTM) of a bond. In what ways are the IRR and the YTM similar? How are they different?
The yield to maturity is the internal rate of return on a bond. The two concepts are identical with the exception that YTM is applied to bonds and IRR is applied to capital budgeting.
Payback Period and Net Present Value. If A Project With Conventional Cash Flows Has A Payback Period Less Than Its Life, Can You Definitively State The Algebraic Sign Of The Npv? Why Or Why Not?
A payback period less than the project's life means that the NPV is positive for a zero discount rate, but nothing more definitive can be said. For discount rates greater than zero, the payback period will still be less than the project's life, but the NPV may be positive, zero, or negative, depending on whether the discount rate is less than, equal to, or greater than the IRR.
Net Present Value. Suppose A Project Has Conventional Cash Flows And A Positive Npv. What Do You Know About Its Payback? Its Profitability Index? Its Irr? Explain.
If a project has a positive NPV for a certain discount rate, then it will also have a positive NPV for a zero discount rate; thus the payback period must be less than the project life. If NPV is positive, then the present value of future cash inflows is greater than the initial investment cost; thus PI must be greater than 1. If NPV is positive for a certain discount rate R, then it will be zero for some larger discount rate R*; thus the IRR must be greater than the required return.
Modified Internal Rate of Return. One of the less flattering interpretations of the acronym MIRR is "meaningless internal rate of return." Why do you think this term is applied to MIRR?
The MIRR is calculated by finding the present value of all cash outflows, the future value of all cash inflows to the end of the project, and then calculating the IRR of the two cash flows. As a result, the cash flows have been discounted or compounded by one interest rate (the required return), and then the interest rate between the two remaining cash flows is calculated. As such, the MIRR is not a true interest rate. In contrast, consider the IRR. If you take the initial investment, and calculate the future value at the IRR, you can replicate the future cash flows of the project exactly.
Capital Budgeting Problems. What are some of the difficulties that might come up in actual applications of the various criteria we discussed in this chapter? Which one would be the easiest to implement in actual applications? The most difficult?
The single biggest difficulty, by far, is coming up with reliable cash flow estimates. Determining an appropriate discount rate is also not a simple task. These issues are discussed in greater depth in the next several chapters. The payback approach is probably the simplest, followed by the AAR, but even these require revenue and cost projections. The discounted cash flow measures (NPV, IRR, and profitability index) are really only slightly more difficult in practice.
Internal Rate of Return. It is sometimes stated that "the internal rate of return approach assumes reinvestment of the intermediate cash flows at the internal rate of return." Is this claim correct? To answer, suppose you calculate the IRR of a project in the usual way. Next, suppose you do the following: a. Calculate the future value (as of the end of the project) of all the cash flows other than the initial outlay assuming they are reinvested at the IRR, producing a single future value figure for the project. b. Calculate the IRR of the project using the single future value calculated in the previous step and the initial outlay. It is easy to verify that you will get the same IRR as in your original calculation only if you use the IRR as the reinvestment rate in the previous step.
The statement is incorrect. It is true that if you calculate the future value of all intermediate cash flows to the end of the project at the IRR, then calculate the IRR of this future value and the initial investment, you will get the same IRR. However, as in the previous question, what is done with the cash flows once they are generated does not affect the IRR. Consider the following example: C0 C1 C2 IRR Project A -$100 $10 $110 10% Suppose this $100 is a deposit into a bank account. The IRR of the cash flows is 10 percent. Does the IRR change if the Year 1 cash flow is reinvested in the account, or if it is withdrawn and spent on pizza? No. Finally, consider the yield to maturity calculation on a bond. If you think about it, the YTM is the IRR on the bond, but no mention of a reinvestment assumption for the bond coupons is suggested. The reason is that reinvestment is irrelevant to the YTM calculation; in the same way, reinvestment is irrelevant in the IRR calculation. Our caveat about blocked funds applies here as well.
Net Present Value. It is sometimes stated that "the net present value approach assumes reinvestment of the intermediate cash flows at the required return." Is this claim correct? To answer, suppose you calculate the NPV of a project in the usual way. Next, suppose you do the following: a. Calculate the future value (as of the end of the project) of all the cash flows other than the initial outlay assuming they are reinvested at the required return, producing a single future value figure for the project. b. Calculate the NPV of the project using the single future value calculated in the previous step and the initial outlay. It is easy to verify that you will get the same NPV as in your original calculation only if you use the required return as the reinvestment rate in the previous step.
The statement is incorrect. It is true that if you calculate the future value of all intermediate cash flows to the end of the project at the required return, then calculate the NPV of this future value and the initial investment, you will get the same NPV. However, NPV says nothing about reinvestment of intermediate cash flows. The NPV is the present value of the project cash flows. What is actually done with those cash flows once they are generated is not relevant. Put differently, the value of a project depends on the cash flows generated by the project, not on the future value of those cash flows. The fact that the reinvestment "works" only if you use the required return as the reinvestment rate is also irrelevant simply because reinvestment is not relevant in the first place to the value of the project. One caveat: Our discussion here assumes that the cash flows are truly available once they are generated, meaning that it is up to firm management to decide what to do with the cash flows. In certain cases, there may be a requirement that the cash flows be reinvested. For example, in international investing, a company may be required to reinvest the cash flows in the country in which they are generated and not "repatriate" the money. Such funds are said to be "blocked" and reinvestment becomes relevant because the cash flows are not truly available.
International Investment Projects. In October 2011, automobile manufacturer Daimler AG announced plains to invest $350 million to manufacture an entirely new Mercedes-Benz model at its Alabama plant. Daimler AG apparently felt that it would be better able to compete and create value with U.S-based facilities. Other companies such as Fuji Film and Swiss chemical company Lonza have reached similar conclusions and taken similar actions. What are some of the reasons that foreign manufacturers of products as diverse as automobiles, film, and chemicals might arrive at this same conclusion?
There are a number of reasons. Two of the most important have to do with transportation costs and exchange rates. Manufacturing in the U.S. places the finished product much closer to the point of sale, resulting in significant savings in transportation costs. It also reduces inventories because goods spend less time in transit. Higher labor costs tend to offset these savings to some degree, at least compared to other possible manufacturing locations. Of great importance is the fact that manufacturing in the U.S. means that a much higher proportion of the costs are paid in dollars. Since sales are in dollars, the net effect is to immunize profits to a large extent against fluctuations in exchange rates. This issue is discussed in greater detail in the chapter on international finance.
Capital Budgeting in Not-for-Profit Entities. Are the capital budgeting criteria we discussed applicable to not-for-profit corporations? How should such entities make capital budgeting decisions? What about the U.S. government? Should it evaluate spending proposals using these techniques?
Yes, they are. Such entities generally need to allocate available capital efficiently, just as for-profits do. However, it is frequently the case that the "revenues" from not-for-profit ventures are not tangible. For example, charitable giving has real opportunity costs, but the benefits are generally hard to measure. To the extent that benefits are measurable, the question of an appropriate required return remains. Payback rules are commonly used in such cases. Finally, realistic cost/benefit analysis along the lines indicated should definitely be used by the U.S. government and would go a long way toward balancing the budget!
Net Present Value. Concerning NPV: a. Describe how NPV is calculated and describe the information this measure provides about a sequence of cash flows. What is the NPV criterion decision rule? b. Why is NPV considered to be a superior method of evaluating the cash flows from a project? Suppose the NPV for a project's cash flows is computed to be $2,500. What does this number represent with respect to the firm's shareholders?
a. NPV is simply the sum of the present values of a project's cash flows. NPV specifically measures, after considering the time value of money, the net increase or decrease in firm wealth due to the project. The decision rule is to accept projects that have a positive NPV, and reject projects with a negative NPV. b. NPV is superior to the other methods of analysis presented in the text because it has no serious flaws. The method unambiguously ranks mutually exclusive projects, and can differentiate between projects of different scale and time horizon. The only drawback to NPV is that it relies on cash flow and discount rate values that are often estimates and not certain, but this is a problem shared by the other performance criteria as well. A project with NPV = $2,500 implies that the total shareholder wealth of the firm will increase by $2,500 if the project is accepted.
Payback Period. Concerning payback: a. Describe how the payback period is calculated and describe the information this measure provides about a sequence of cash flows. What is the payback criterion decision rule? b. What are the problems associated with using the payback period as a means of evaluating cash flows? c. What are the advantages of using the payback period to evaluate cash flows? Are there any circumstances under which using payback might be appropriate? Explain.
a. Payback period is simply the break-even point of a series of cash flows. To actually compute the payback period, it is assumed that any cash flow occurring during a given period is realized continuously throughout the period, and not at a single point in time. The payback is then the point in time for the series of cash flows when the initial cash outlays are fully recovered. Given some predetermined cutoff for the payback period, the decision rule is to accept projects that payback before this cutoff, and reject projects that take longer to payback. b. The worst problem associated with payback period is that it ignores the time value of money. In addition, the selection of a hurdle point for payback period is an arbitrary exercise that lacks any steadfast rule or method. The payback period is biased towards short-term projects; it fully ignores any cash flows that occur after the cutoff point. c. Despite its shortcomings, payback is often used because (1) the analysis is straightforward and simple and (2) accounting numbers and estimates are readily available. Materiality consider-ations often warrant a payback analysis as sufficient; maintenance projects are another example where the detailed analysis of other methods is often not needed. Since payback is biased towards liquidity, it may be a useful and appropriate analysis method for short-term projects where cash management is most important.
Internal Rate of Return. Concerning IRR: a. Describe how the IRR is calculated, and describe the information this measure provides about a sequence of cash flows. What is the IRR criterion decision rule? b. What is the relationship between IRR and NPV? Are there any situations in which you might prefer one method over the other? Explain. c. Despite its shortcomings in some situations, why do most financial managers use IRR along with NPV when evaluating projects? Can you think of a situation in which IRR might be a more appropriate measure to use than NPV? Explain.
a. The IRR is the discount rate that causes the NPV of a series of cash flows to be equal to zero. IRR can thus be interpreted as a financial break-even rate of return; at the IRR discount rate, the net value of the project is zero. The IRR decision rule is to accept projects with IRRs greater than the discount rate, and to reject projects with IRRs less than the discount rate. b. IRR is the interest rate that causes NPV for a series of cash flows to be zero. NPV is preferred in all situations to IRR; IRR can lead to ambiguous results if there are non-conventional cash flows, and also ambiguously ranks some mutually exclusive projects. However, for stand-alone projects with conventional cash flows, IRR and NPV are interchangeable techniques. c. IRR is frequently used because it is easier for many financial managers and analysts to rate performance in relative terms, such as "12%", than in absolute terms, such as "$46,000." IRR may be a preferred method to NPV in situations where an appropriate discount rate is unknown or uncertain; in this situation, IRR would provide more information about the project than would NPV.
Average Accounting Return. Concerning AAR: a. Describe how the average accounting return is usually calculated and describe the information this measure provides about a sequence of cash flows. What is the AAR criterion decision rule? b. What are the problems associated with using the AAR as a means of evaluating a project's cash flows? What underlying feature of AAR is most troubling to you from a financial perspective? Does the AAR have any redeeming qualities?
a. The average accounting return is interpreted as an average measure of the accounting perfor- mance of a project over time, computed as some average profit measure due to the project divided by some average balance sheet value for the project. This text computes AAR as average net income with respect to average (total) book value. Given some predetermined cutoff for AAR, the decision rule is to accept projects with an AAR in excess of the target measure, and reject all other projects. b. AAR is not a measure of cash flows and market value, but a measure of financial statement accounts that often bear little semblance to the relevant value of a project. In addition, the selection of a cutoff is arbitrary, and the time value of money is ignored. For a financial manager, both the reliance on accounting numbers rather than relevant market data and the exclusion of time value of money considerations are troubling. Despite these problems, AAR continues to be used in practice because (1) the accounting information is usually available, (2) analysts often use accounting ratios to analyze firm performance, and (3) managerial compensation is often tied to the attainment of certain target accounting ratio goals.
Internal Rate of Return. Concerning IRR: a. Describe how the IRR is calculated, and describe the information this measure provides about a sequence of cash flows. What is the IRR criterion decision rule? b. What is the relationship between IRR and NPV? Are there any situations in which you might prefer one method over the other? Explain. c. Despite its shortcomings in some situations, why do most financial managers use IRR along with NPV when evaluating projects? Can you think of a situation in which IRR might be a more appropriate measure to use than NPV? Explain.
a. The profitability index is the present value of cash inflows relative to the project cost. As such, it is a benefit/cost ratio, providing a measure of the relative profitability of a project. The profitability index decision rule is to accept projects with a PI greater than one, and to reject projects with a PI less than one. b. PI = ( NPV + cost ) / cost = 1 + ( NPV / cost ). If a firm has a basket of positive NPV projects and is subject to capital rationing, PI may provide a good ranking measure of the projects, indicating the "bang for the buck" of each particular project.