Chapter 5 Risk Analysis Assessing the risks of natural Hazards

Variables which may influence frequency include

-Sea surface temperature -Wind patterns from an El Nino -Extreme weather -Geological events -Unplanned and fast development in costal areas -Trends in population shifts -Environmental changes

what is DDS?

Decision Support Systems (DSS) that takes into account Hazard areas, critical infrastructure (water, electricity and gas supply, communication network, transportation network, schools, hospitals, fire stations, and police) and disaster zones is described and categorized by geospatial measures. that can be an effective tool for decision makers and stakeholders.

RISK = LIKELIHOOD (or probability/frequency/hazard) X Type of Disaster true false

False RISK = LIKELIHOOD (or probability/frequency/hazard) X CONSEQUENCE (or impact/loss/vulnerability)

what are Direct tangible losses

Fatalities Injuries Cost of repair Loss of inventory Response costs by a business of community

what are Involuntary risks ?

Involuntary risks are those associated with activities that happen to us without our prior knowledge or consent. Also, they are often seen as inevitable. Voluntary risks are those associated with activities that we decide to undertake, such as driving a car, riding a motorbike or bullighting.

what are Indirect Losses

Loss of income by displaced employees Sales that did not occur Increased costs for skilled employees Loss of productivity of employees Employee sickness Increase in disruptive behavior or crime

R = H x V x cp

R: Risk H: Hazard (likelihood or probability) V: Vulnerability (impact/severity) cp: Community Perception

5 Point Scale to Measure Community Perception

Rank5- very severe occurrence with large impact on number of people, critical infrastructure.Priority to invest in hazard protection and disaster mitigation measures immediately Rank 4 -Sever occurrence with severe impact on some people, few essential services and or the environment - community consent to invest in hazard protection and disaster mitigation measures immediately Rank 3 - somewhat severe occurrence with major impact on few peopled or essential services - community consent to invest and mitigate measure in select areas Rank 2 - Occurrence(s) with significant impact on some people and or essential services - not a priority but community consent to invest in mitigation measures Rank 1 - minor impact on some people and/or essential services, consent to invest in hazard protection and disaster mitigation measures

Perceived Consequences

Risk= p X L* (* is a power that depends on a number of factors)

Determining Risk Acceptability is influenced by several factors What are they (PPEE)

Several factors influence the determination of risk acceptability; Personal Political/social Economic Environmental (not mentioned in the book)

Quantitative Analysis of Risk

Statistical measures to derive numerical references of risk. Specific measurable indicators - loss in dollars, probability or frequency of specific event(s), number of injuries and fatalities. Prioritization of risk is carried out based on assessed risk values. This step is a must for the purpose of allocation of resources and development of mitigation strategies.

what is the ALARP diagram and what does it show?

The ALARP stands for (as low as reasonably practical) diagram shows the high (intolerable) risks at the top and the low (acceptable) risks at the bottom. The region in between is the 'Tolerable Region', in which risk should be reduced by as much as is feasible The ALARP principle is that the residual risk shall be reduced as far as reasonably practicable..

Climate variations which occur over a long period can significantly impact frequency or severity of a disaster. True False

True

Qualitative Analysis of Risk

Uses descriptive ways to define and categorize the likelihood and consequences of risk. It is a common practice to use qualifiers to represent a range of possibilities.

Vulnerable population - age; single mothers; type of dwellings; unemployed; language; immigrants; visible minority; family income etc.

Vulnerable population - age; single mothers; type of dwellings; unemployed; language; immigrants; visible minority; family income etc.

Vulnerable population are consistent of and categories by

Vulnerable population - age; single mothers; type of dwellings; unemployed; language; immigrants; visible minority; family income etc.

Dissonance:

denial of risk; a past event is viewed as a freak occurrence unlikely to be repeated.

conditions with highest priority form mitigation and contingency planning (immediate action). Almost certain likelihood of catastrophic consequences

extreme risk

the risk is high by the consequences are low. Risk addressed immediately by mitigation and emergency preparedness and contingency planning (prompt action). Almost certain likelihood and minor consequences

high risk

The level of risk is expressed as a likelihood (frequency/probability) of the occurrence, multiplied by its consequences ________ or __________

impact or loss

What is the objective of risk analysis

is to determine the likelihood of an extreme event (hazard) and possible consequences that could result from it. The goal is to provide accurate and detailed information for decision makers that are responsible for mitigation of disasters.

conditions with additional mitigation contingency planning (advisory in nature) Low likelihood and low consequences

low risk

likelihood is low but consequences are high- low likelihood and extreme consequences

moderate risk

Determinism

not believing in random element of hazardous events.

Probabilistic

random nature of hazards is well understood, but sometimes leads to a fatalistic 'Act of God' syndrome.

what are Disaster impacts used to measure

the consequences of disasters. They include but are not limited to: Social disruption Economic disruption Environmental impacts

Risk analysis takes in factors such as social-cultural, economic and environmental impacts. True False

true