Climate change ecology

Glacier Debate

It is not yet known how much of the retreat is due to global warming that previously occurred and caused unstable conditions or how much is owed to the recent warming of Earth.

Over the six scenarios presented by the IPCC (B1, A1T, B2, A1B, A2, A1F1), a temperature increase of ___ is predicted by 2099.

1.8-4.0

The Vostok ice core is important because...

It provides a long term climate record. It has information about CO2 and temperature. It is a continuous time series. D. All of the above.

The same biomes that occur over thousands of ___ from the poles to the equator, occur in mountains over thousands of ___.

Kilometers, meters

Krill

Krill are an incredibly important food source of many animals in the Antarctic, including many fish, whales, and even penguins.In the last thirty years, krill population has also declined much like the penguins. However, krill decrease is as high as 80%.

In the Yosemite region there has been a significant increase in the ___ temperature.

minimum

neighborhood size

number of individuals that an indiviudal can interact with in its lifetime within a given radius

density

number per unit area

limit cycles

numbers vary between high and low values

overgrowth competition

one individual grows upon or over another

Based on a Web of Science analysis, how many papers were found that presented evidence to refute the statement: "Global climate change is occurring, and human activities are at least part of the reason why"?

0

When did the IPCC first state unequivocally that the earth's climate is being affected by human activities?

2001

About what proportion of US citizens are Dismissive or Doubtful about global warming?

25%

The pre-industrial CO2 level was about ___ ppm.

280

The current C02 level is about ___ ppm.

394

For every one degree rise in temperature, bud burst happens how many days earlier?

5

Atmosphere and Captured Energy

62% of the thermal radiation absorbed by the atmosphere warms Earth. The other 38% is turned back to space.

The level of CO2 today is higher than it has been in the past ___ years.

650,000

In the IPCC report, "likely" means ...

> 66% chance

Edith's Checkerspot

A butterfly that is endangered and native to California. It is rare and lives in localized colonies and is closely associated to its larval food source: dwarf plantains and Indian paintbrush.

Keeling Curve

A figure produced by Charles Keeling's studies in Hawaii that shows the variation in atmospheric carbon dioxide since 1958. It is credited as the first to bring to the attention that human activity is affecting Earth's atmosphere (shows a positive trend in atmospheric CO2).

Muir and Riggs Glacier

A glacier duo also of Alaska, though these are located in Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve. In 2004, the Muir glacier was noted to have retreated out of much of its 1941 area, where it was as thick as 65m in come areas. Riggs glacier has retreated 3 km as opposed to Muir's 20 km.

Pedersen Glacier

A glacier in the Kenai Fjords National Park. Since 1920, the glacier has declined to a period in 2005 where a grassland has taken up residence where this glacier and its lagoon once sat.

Changes Due to Warming

Density changes, range shifts, phenology, morphology/behavior, and frequencies.

Studies of range changes since the 1960s can be confounded by which factor?

A lack of significant climate change Effects of landscape modification and landuse change Not enough time for species to respond D. All of the above

The disappearance of glaciers will lead to a decrease in stream flow in the Andes. This impact will be ____.

Abrupt

Glacier retreat is underway in ____ Andean countries.

All

The most extreme warming has been experienced in the __.

Arctic

Elevation and Habitat

As a result of the rain shadow and elevation, temperature and rainfall increase as you go up a mountain. This causes specific vegetation communities to appear at different elevations on the same mountain.

Changes in the Antarctic Ecosystem

As a summary, as the Antarctic is warming, the pattern of sea ice formation is changing (being made less available).

Temperature and Latitude

As latitude decreases, temperature increases as you move from the poles to the tropics. Climate change is predicted to cause isotherms to shift to more northern latitudes (poleward) so that more Northern Latitude experience higher temperature.

Altered Habitats Due to Climate Change

As the climate changes, temperature and rainfall patterns are predicted to change with elevation, no doubt causing a shift in the vegetation communities. The scenario shown for example indicates that a 3.5C and 10% change in temp and precipitation respectively would cause huge shifts in vegetation communities. Paleologic evidence show this has happened before, so it can most likely happen again.

Rain Shadow

As we remember, a rain shadow effect occurs when a moist air current rises along a mountain side: the cooling of the air causes precipitation as the current can no longer hold moisture. Once the current reaches the other side of the the mountain, it no longer has any moisture left.

According to what we learned in class, climate skeptics tend to have different ___ than those who believe in climate change.

Attitudes and Norms

If we want to get people to take action to stop climate change, we can work to change their behaviors, attitudes and values. Which of these is most likely to change?

Behaviors

When permafrost melts ___ are released into the atmosphere.

CO2 and methane

What is the most important greenhouse gas?

Carbon Dioxide

What are 3 components of the earth's orbit that affect climate cycles?

Eccentricity, Precession and Tilt

According to the IPCC report, since 1750 ___ has increased markedly as a result of human activities.

Carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide

Earth's Climatic Variation

Caused by the uneven heating of the surface by the Sun. The spherical shape of the earth combined with the angel at which it tilts contributes to this.

Some of the best long term phenological records are for ___.

Cherry trees and grapes

Recent Rise in Sea Level

Data of the annually averaged sea level at 23 geologically stable sites with long term records shows a rise in sea level. Specifically, the data indicates a rise of 18.5 cm or 7 inches in roughly the last 100 years in the three year average. Many attribute this to global warming.

Global Temperature Trends

Data shows that at the same time that carbon dioxide was increasing in the atmosphere, so was mean temperature. Since the 1980s, the Earth has become consistently warmer than average: Over the past 100 years, the average temperature has increased by 0.6 C.

Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover

Decade averages in snow cover found between March and April in the Northern Hemispheres shows a decrease in snow cover of North America since 1950.

Annual Variation in Antarctic Sea Ice

Every year, a large ice sheet forms and thaws across and extending from the continent. At the end of summer it is small, but at the end of winter it is fairly large. Algae grows under this ice.

What are the 3 principles of American Journalism?

Fairness, Balance and Accuracy

A glacial Lake Outburst Flood mostly occurs when ice rapidly melts during the spring, causing increase in stream flow.

False

Appealing to the public's sense of safety and framing climate change as a "dangerous" issue affecting our safety is the most successful communication strategy.

False

In the future, it is predicted that there will be more warming in the summer relative to winter.

False

The percentage of Americans with the highest belief in climate change (Alarmed, Concerned, Cautious) significantly increased between 2008 and 2011.

False

D.C. and the Cherry Blossoms

Festivals are planned for the peak bloom of the cherry blossoms. However, because of the climate change, the bloom comes earlier and earlier each year: now it is 5 days earlier than it was 30 years ago, even though the festival dates are the same.

Examples of Phenological events do NOT include ____.

Foraging and predation

Over the last 500 million years, the earth has ___ experienced cycles of warm and cool periods.

Frequently

Shift in Location of Suitable Habitats

From the change in butterfly distribution, we can assume that the southern latitudes and lower elevations have now become unsuitable to live in.

Based on what we learned in class, reporting on global climate change is challenging because ...

Issues are global and the field is rapidly changing.

Grinnell's "Yosemite Transect" provides an excellent opportunity to assess shifts in small mammal communities. Which of these is NOT a reason why?

It is in an area that has experienced significant land use change.

Harp seals primarily rely on sea ice for ___.

Their entire life cycle.

Which of the following is NOT an example of a positive feedback?

Higher productivity, more prey for polar bears, increase in polar bears

Ice Algae

In order to survive, krill larvae must constantly eat. Sea ice is particularly advantageous for them in that it will shelter them and provide algae that grows on the underside for them to eat. The message here is that the ice is essential to juvenile krill.

WHich if the following factors is NOT a major cause of glacier melting and retreat?

Increase in human exploitation of glaciers

The IPCC report states: "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal". What evidence do they provide for this?

Increases in global average temperature Increases in global average temperature and widespread melting of snow and ice Rising global average sea level D. All of the above

The number of climate change articles in US newspapers are __________.

Increasing

What does IPCC stand for?

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Krill Life Cycle

Krill live for about 5 to 6 years. During the breeding seasons from December to March, and hatch in the depths rather than at the surface. Juvenile krill grow in the winter where their primary food item is ice algae.

What is photo-period?

Length of daylight.

Over the past 100 years in Yosemite, the upper elevational limit increased for most of the ___ species, but none of the ___ species.

Low elevation, high elevation

Mountains are likely to be refuges for ___ elevation species but may be ecological traps for ___ elevation species.

Low, high

Analysis of Climate Impacts on Species

Many studies have concerned themselves with looking for evidence that the climate change has had an effect on living organisms. By 2006, 866 studies concerning more than 1500 species have found a change on biota.

The Greenhouse Gasses

Methane and nitrous oxide are the 2nd and 3rd most significant gasses, both of which are mostly produced due to agricultural process (Fuel processing and waste disposal for methane, too). Carbon Dioxide is the most significant however.

Refugia

Microclimates in which species survive long term climate change and later re-colonise

Of the Climate Impact Studies...

More than 80% of the species studied exhibited changes that would be predicted to climate change. Furthermore, authors also identified changes that would be predicted due to warming.

In Pounds et al. 1999, the authors report ____.

Multiple, synchronous population crashes

What is an inductive argument supporting global warming?

Nearly all scientists that have looked measure a significant increase in temperature since the industrial revolution

Antarctic Temperature

The western Antarctic peninsula has registered the largest increase in temperature on the planet! It's temperature has increased almost 6 degrees C over the past 50 years.

What is phenology?

Observing the timing of biological events in relation to changes in season and climate

Shift in Phenology

On average, plants and animals have shifted phenological 5.1 days early on average per decade. Trees, however, have not shifted much in phenology. Contrarily, birds, some of which are pollinators, have shifted closer to 6 days on average.

Phenology in Perspective

Organisms take advantage of the predictable seasonal cycles to "time" certain natural events when they would be most favorable. This is a product of evolution. Examples of this would be the migration of birds before the coming of the winter or the blossoming of the flowers just after the last freeze.

Latitude and Extinction

Patterns of Edith's checkerspot show an extinction of many populations in the Southern latitudes (except at mountain ranges in the higher altitudes) between 1860 to 1983.

What cue is commonly used by tropical migratory birds to determine spring arrival date to their breeding grounds?

Photo-period

Maslow's Hierarchy of needs tells us that we must meet our ___ and ___ needs before meeting our ___ and ___ needs.

Physiological and safety, Social and esteem

Annual Use of Greenhouse Gasses

Power stations and industrial processes release the most greenhouse gases. In addition, 72% of the gases are carbon dioxide, 18% are methane, 8% nitrous oxide, and 1% are other gases.

Reduced sea ice and rapid ice melting causes mortality for __.

Primarily pups

Over the past 100 years in Yosemite, high elevation species experienced ____.

Range contractions

Over the past 100 years in Yosemite, low elevation species experienced ____.

Range expansions

Range Shift and Root et al.

Range shift is another impact of of climate change. Root predicted that the range of species might shift poleward or up in elevation to find areas that suit their metabolic tolerances.

Trophics Levels and Krill

Since many carnivores depend on krill and high-order carnivores depend, in turn, on these carnivores, a reduction in ice algae causes a disruption of population of krill. Less krill means less penguins if they cannot find anything else to eat, again, lower their population and the higher carnivores.

Penguin Density Changes

Since the 1970s, emperor penguins have seen a decline of almost 50% of breeding pairs in certain parts of Antarctica.

Summary of Camille's Butterfly Study

The change in temperature and rainfall in the Southern latitudes and low elevations has caused the food plants of the butterflies to die earlier; in fact, too early that the larva have not finished development. Therefore, the butterflies can no longer live in this environment.

There are many reasons that polar regions are unique. Which of these is NOT one of them.

Sole contributor to sea level rise

Krill and the Sea Ice Importantce

Summer food and the extent of winter sea ice are thus key factors in the high krill densities observed in the southwest Atlantic Ocean. Krill need the summer phytoplankton blooms of this sector, where winters of extensive sea ice mean plentiful winter food from ice algae, promoting larval recruitment and replenishing the stock.

In the case of winter moth and oak trees, both egg laying and budburst have advanced, but arrival date of pied flycatchers has not. This results in a ___.

Temporal mismatch

Krill and the Sea Ice: Temporally

Temporally, within the southwest Atlantic, summer krill densities correlate positively with sea-ice extent the previous winter.

Krill and the Sea Ice: Spatially

The changes in ice formation have had a major effect on krill. Spatially, within their habitat, summer krill densities correlate positively with chlorophyll concentrations.

Cherry Blossom and Flowering

The cherry blossom is an important cultural symbol in Japan. As such, the records of when they blossom are very well kept. It was not until the early 1900s that significant variation was seen in the flowering time. Since that time, there has been a steady advancement of earlier flowering time following 1952.

What is bud burst?

The day when a tree or a plant's leaf or flower opens

Greenhouse Effect

The effect caused by rays from the sun in which they reach the Earth's surface, are radiated from Earth, but then are captured by "greenhouse gases." This effect is what keeps Earth's surface at 14 degrees Celsius. 75% of the surface heat captured by Earth is because of these gasses.

Benefits of the Greenhouse Effect

The greenhouse effect is actually natural and beneficial: without it the Earth's avg. temperature would be -18 degrees Celsius!

Increasing sea surface temperature (SST) has what effect on the cloud formation layer that is important to cloud forests?

The layer rises in height

What did the Panos report recommend to improve media coverage of climate change issues in developing countries?

The media should be encouraged to play a key role in the climate change debate. Scientists must break down the jargon used in relation to climate change issues. Important information should be made available in a variety of languages. All of the above

Pollinators and Phenology

The mismatching of phenological timing can harm important functions like pollination because, similar to the butterflies, the food plant can end up dying to early and upset the natural process.

Carbon Dioxide

The most important of the greenhouse gasses that makes up 0.038% of Earth's atmosphere. 72% of all greenhouse gas emissions are carbon dioxide, mostly through the burning of fossil fuels: easily the leading cause of global warming.

"Scientific consensus" on climate change refers to

The reality of human-induced climate change

Phenology

The study of the timing of natural events.

Review of All Range Shift Studies

There have been long-term range shifts in 30 different regions encompassing over 700 different species.The studies indicate that organism distribution is moving northward at 17 meters per decade and to higher elevation at 11 meters per decade.

Harp seals are UNLIKELY to be able to adapt to changing ice conditions because ___.

They are experiencing other threats such as hunting and by-catch

Harp seals are LIKELY to be able to adapt to changing ice conditions because ___.

They have specific life history adaptations to succeed in a seasonal and changing environment

Antarctic Food Web

To understand why the penguins are in decline, one must understand the dynamics of Krill, which form the base of the food web in the Antarctic.

As glaciers melt, the amount of hydropower produced is expected to increase.

True

GLOFs in the Himalaya have been increasing steadily over the past 50 years.

True

Melting glaciers can release persistent forms of atmospheric pollution such as Nitrogen and DDT.

True

Meltwater lakes forming on the surface of a glacier is an example of positive feedback.

True

Effect of Antarctic Temperature Change

Typically, ice formation starts in the coldest areas of the coasts in late March or early April and works its way up the coast. Now, however, the ice is forming two or even three weeks later. Also, heavy sea ice only forms 1/2 years out of every 5 years rather than 4 of every 5.

In 2007, the IPCC stated, it is ___ that the climate is warming.

Unequivocal

Data of Cherry Blossoms from Mt. Takao Japan

Unique in that this set contains both temperature and phrenological data. Peak flowering date has progressed to an earlier date, and average temperature for Feb-Mar has steadily increased.

The zone of accumulation is found where on a glacier?

Upper portion

CO2 as Measured by Ice Cores

Using ice cores, we can see the variation in atmospheric CO2 for the last 400 thousand years. This is because large changes in CO2 can be related to glacial/interglacial cycles within an Ice Age (Ice Age Cycles).

In 2007, the IPCC stated, it is ___ that humans are a major contributor to climate change.

Very Likely

Ice Age Cycles and Cores

While glacial cycles are are mostly related to a change in Earth's orbit, those changes influence the carbon cycle which will then also affect the glacial system. Since the beginning of the industrial revolution, the burning of fossil fuels has caused a rise in CO2 not yet reached by any previous cyclic spike in CO2.

Food Web Summary

With population reductions, either carnivores find a different source of food or they begin to die off.

According to the Panos survey, do developing country journalists believe climate change is an actual phenomenon?

Yes.

What is falsificationism?

You can never prove a theory true, you can only refute it.

deterministic models

able to predict population changes based on births and deaths

comsumptive competition

based on resources

presemptive competition

based on space, primarily plants

factors that affect distribution

climate, topography, soil, and biological characteristics of species

chaos

complex and unpredictable flucuations in numbers we cannot explain

An advancement of 2-5 days per ___ has been demonstrated over a wide variety of species.

decade

Many glaciers are expected to completely disappear over the next few ____.

decades

Overall ice and snow cover in the Arctic (North Pole) is ___. Overall ice and snow cover in the Antarctic (South Pole) is ___ .

decreasing, increasing

territorial competition

defense

multiple stable states

equilibrium population size reflects balance between food supply and predators

distribution

geographical and ecological range

exponential growth

increase in numbers in proportion to size

parasitod

insect that lays eggs in another species

poisson distribution

large number in a confined area

emmigration/immigration

leaving/entering

flucuation in natural populations

magnitude of change in numbers of individuals overtime

metapopulations

populations divided into discrete subpopulations

damped oscillation

populations oscillate around an equilibrium value getting closer in each generation

life table

predicts the population size of a given age class (absence of immigration and emmigration)

chemical competition

production of a toxin

simple model dispersal

random movement in homogeneous environment

stochastic models

random or variations in births and deaths due to chance

geometric growth

ratio of population in one year compared to preceeding year

Milankovich cycles vary on the scale of ____ of years.

thousands

Phenology comes from two Greek words: pheno and logos. What do they mean?

to show or appear; to study

competitive exclusion principle

two species cannot coexist on the limiting resource

competition

use or defense of a resource by an individual that reduces the availability of that resource by another individual