Climate Change Midterm

Economic Update (2014)

" a big study by a blue-ribbon international group, the New Climate Economy Project, and a working paper from the International Monetary Fund. Both claim that strong measures to limit carbon emissions would have hardly any negative effect on economic growth, and might actually lead to faster growth."

Further Perspective (includes 100 GtC reduction through reforestation)

"2005 - reduction at 3.5% /year for 350 ppm by 2100. 2013 - 6% per year. 2020 - 15% per year

Climate Change has been a important factor in Political Instability

"High food prices brought about by climate change have helped fuel the current unrest in the Middle East."

Possible with Existing Technology

"Humanity already possesses the fundamental scientific, technical, and industrial know-how to solve the carbon and climate problem for the next half century."

Heading to an Ice Free Planet?

"If humanity burns most of the fossil fuels, doubling [560 ppm] or tripling [840 ppm] the preindustrial carbon dioxide level [280 ppm], Earth will surely head toward the ice free condition, with sea level 75 meters (250 feet) higher than today. What would it mean for our globalized society if there were no stable coastlines for centuries? What would it mean for civilization if the sea level rose 3 feet every 20 to 25 years (12 to 15 feet a century) for centuries as it did at the end of the last ice age 14,000 years ago

Ocean Food Web

"It isn't just the coral reefs which are affected - a large part of the plankton in the Southern Ocean, the coccolithophorids, are also affected. These drive ocean productivity and are at the base of the food web which supports krill, whales, tuna and our fisheries. They also play a vital role in removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, which could break down."

Russian Heat Wave & Global Food Security

"Russia's grain harvest shrank from nearly 100 million tons to scarcely 60 million tons as crops withered. Recently the world's number three wheat exporter, Russia banned grain exports in a desperate move to rein in soaring domestic food prices. Between mid-June and mid- August, the world price of wheat climbed 60 percent."

Arctic is the canary in the coal mine

"The Arctic is often cited as the canary in the coal mine for climate warning. Now, as a sign of climate warning, the canary has died. It is time to start getting out of the coal mines."

extreme rainfall

"The answer to the oft-asked question of whether an event is caused by climate change is that it is the wrong question. All weather events are affected by climate change because the environment in which they occur is warmer and moister than it used to be.".

Melting of the glaciers of the Hindu Kush-Himalayan-Tibetan plateau

"Tibetan glaciers have been melting at an accelerating, alarming rate over the past decade, raising the threat that many of the glaciers could be gone by midcentury." This creates water problems for 1.3 billion people.

Widespread Drought in Coming Decades

"We are facing the possibility of widespread drought in the coming decades, but this has yet to be fully recognized by both the public and the climate change research community." "If the projections in this study come even close to being realized, the consequences for society worldwide will be enormous." Aiguo Dai National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

Economics of Moving Rapidly to 100% Renewables

"When you actually account for all the costs to society - including medical costs - of the current fuel structure, the costs of our plan are relatively similar to what we have today," Jacobson said.

Crop Yields

"Yields increase with temperature up to 29˚ C [84˚ Fahrenheit] for corn, 30˚C [86˚ F] for soybeans, and 32˚ C [89.6˚ F] for cotton but that temperatures above these thresholds are very harmful." The study concluded, based on current growing regions, that on the slowest of the IPCC warming scenarios (i.e. scenario B1), in which CO2 is stabilized at around560 ppm [3˚ C], corn and soy "yields are predicted to decrease by 30-46% before the end of the century." On the highest and most rapid warming scenario (i.e. scenario A1F1 [5˚C]) corn and soy yields are predicted to decrease by 63-82%.

Amazon fires

Amazon could be committed to destruction from drought driven fires from which it will never recover

Climate Lag (Thermal Inertia)

Another 0.6 °C (1.08 °F) of warming is in the pipeline. There is a lag time between the cause (increased greenhouse gas emissions) and the effect (increased temperatures). 1/3 = first few years ½= 25 years ¾ = 250 years Nearly full response = 1000 years

Melting of the Permafrost

As the permafrost thaws it releases carbon dioxide and methane, which is 25 times more potent as a greenhouse gas than CO2 over a 100 year time period , but is 86 times more potent than CO2 over a 20 year time period. The magnitude of this amplifying feedback "represents an important unknown in the science of global warming; this feedback has not been accounted for in any of the IPCC projections."

US Cities with 18% or more sea level incursion at 12 feet Sea Level Rise

Boston New York Washington, D.C. - (Reagan National & the National Mall) Sacramento, CA

Population and Food

By 2030 the population is likely to increase from a little over 6 billion today to 8 billion. the demand for food by 2030 is predicted to increase by 50%.

Wildfire Threat in the US

CO2 is stabilized at around 560 ppm, California loses 50% to 75% alpine and subalpine forests and on the high IPCC emissions scenario (i.e. scenario A1Fi) California loses 75% to 90% of alpine and subalpine forests by the end of the century. In regards to the rest of the forests in the American West, Professor Tom Swetnam, one of the world's leading fire ecologists, maintained in an interview that he thought by the end of the century we could lose half the forests in the West from wildfire.

California Agriculture and Food Security

California produces nearly half of US grown fruits and vegetables

US Cities with 18% or more sea level incursion at 5 feet Sea Level Rise

Cambridge, MA Atlantic City, NJ Jersey City NY City - (Kennedy & LaGuardia) Virginia Beach Huntington Beach, CA Miami Tampa St. Petersburg Charleston, S.C New Orleans Galveston, TX

Climate Change induced drought leads to War

Darfur Arab herders and African farmers lived in relative peace until the droughts came. 300,000 people have died in the conflict Though it is still an open question, climate models show that global climate change was responsible for disrupting the African monsoons.

Switching from Coal to Natural Gas

Dead End on CO2 levels Methane Leakage Natural Gas Displaces Renewables

Extreme Heat

During the period from 1951-1980, extremely hot summers covered just 1 percent of Earth's land area. This had risen to 10 percent of the Earth's land area by the period from 1981-2010. The odds of such extreme summers were about 1-in-300 during the 1951-1980 timeframe, but that had increased to nearly 1-in-10 by 1981-2010. "It follows that we can state, with a high degree of confidence, that extreme anomalies such as those in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 and Moscow in 2010 were a consequence of global warming because their likelihood in the absence of global warming was exceedingly small."

Global Climate Change = Global Food Scarcity

For every 1˚ Celsius (1.8 ˚ Fahrenheit) rise above the norm, wheat, rice, and corn yields fall by 10 percent.

What is Global Warming?

Global Climate is the average weather over a long period of time for the whole globe. While there can be variations year to year the average of the weather over time and space indicates that the globe is warming.

The Consequence of this Second Approach

Global temperature increase over preindustrial temperatures = Likely 4 °C This analysis from Kevin Anderson at the Tyndall Centre, included some positive feedbacks, but does not include the most dangerous feedback - the melting of the permafrost. The melting of the permafrost = increase warming by approximately 4° C. The human community would be carried into and well beyond the 5° C world

Water

Half of the world's 6.7 billion people depend on rivers whose freshwater source is mountain glaciers. 70% of our fresh water resources are used for irrigation of crops. Thus if you have water problems you are going to have food problems.

Reviews of Literature

IPCC National Academy of Sciences US Global Change Research Program Assessment Copenhagen Diagnosis NOAA State of the Climate

Human Contribution to Climate Change, 1996

If the warming is due to greenhouse gases, then troposphere will warm and the stratosphere will cool, which is what Santer and his colleagues discovered was happening.

Melting of Permafrost Possibly Adds 4˚ C

If this carbon were released from the soils it has been estimated that it would alone increase atmospheric CO2, levels by nearly 800 ppm, which is double the amount of previous estimates.* Half the land-based permafrost would vanish by mid-century on our current emissions path.** (3˚ C; 5.4˚ F). Some put this number at 2˚ C*** (3.6 ˚ F ). Some studies sat 60% of permafrost will melt by 2200.

What happens if we take a less radical and more politically palatable emissions reduction path?

In this scenario we will put the carbon reduction challenge in context with deforestation and some other non-CO2 emissions. Let us start with some optimistic assumptions: Deforestation (accounts for 12 -25% of CO2 emissions) : from current levels we will cut these in half by 2040 and close to zero by 2060. Greenhouse gas emissions (i.e. nitrous oxide and methane) to feed a growing global population (which cannot be reduced to zero): we will cut the emissions intensity of food production by over 60% over the next four decades

rainfall

Increase in the Amount of Rain Falling During Heavy Precipitation Events

study on natural catastrophes

Increase in weather related natural catastrophes

False Economy Regarding Delay

Its 2011 report, the IEA says, "On planned policies, rising fossil energy use will lead to irreversible and potentially catastrophic climate change . . . . Delaying action is a false economy: for every $1 of investment in cleaner technology that is avoided in the power sector before 2020, an additional $4.30 would need to be spent after 2020 to compensate for the increased emissions."

US presses treatment of Ocean Acidification and the Kardashians

Kardashians get 40 times more coverage then ocean acidification

Major Institute Studies

NASA NOAA Hadley Tyndall Potsdam

scientific journals

Nature Science PNAS Climactic Change Geophysical Research Letters

Obama's Policies will not reach Paris Pledge

Obama Suite Of Policies coupled with State Policies, as they stand. Reduce emissions 300 million to 350 million tons CO2e by 2025 compared to 2005 levels Paris requires : reduction of 1,000 million to 2,000 million tons of CO2e by 2025 compared to 2005 levels . Current Policies fall 300% to 600% short of the Paris Pledge. President Barack Obama hailed the US as "the global leader in fighting climate change" during the Paris Climate Agreement.

China Drought

October 2010 through early 2011East China's Shandong Province, one of the country's major grain producers, is experienced the worst drought in 200 years. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization issued a special alert in Feb. 2011 about major potential shortfalls in China's wheat crop and the resultant price shocks that could be felt around the globe. China accounts for 1/6 of the world's wheat According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization over 1/3 of China's wheat production has been affected by drought. In addition, "2.57 million people and 2.79 million head of livestock faced shortages of drinking water."

Destroying the Great Forests of North America

Pine Bark Beetle Destruction Western US = 69 million acres (as of 2012) (4x the size of Ireland) British Columbia = 35 million acres (2x Ireland) (as of 2009) The Boreal Forests of Canada and Russia hold much more carbon than other forests in the world.

wind and solar

Powering the World 50 Times Over with Wind and Solar

Confronting the Base Load Myth

Reliability of energy is "met by generating plants collectively, not individually." its not constantly running

EPA Adminstrator

Scott Pruitt - as attorney general of Oklahoma sued the EPA 13 times "The New York Times reported in 2014 that he and other Republican attorneys general had formed an "unprecedented, secretive alliance" with major oil and gas companies to undermine environmental regulations. One of the firms, Oklahoma's Devon Energy, drafted a letter for Pruitt to send to the EPA in 2011. Pruitt printed the document on state letterhead and sent it off, almost verbatim, to Washington."

How much has the earth warmed?

Since the 19th century: CO2 has increased from 280 (ppm) to 400 ppm The planet has warmed 1.0 °C (1.8 °F )

Destroying our Great Forests

The Amazon Rain Forest

Amazon moving from Carbon sink to Carbon Source?

The Amazon Rainforest has suffered an extreme drought that usually only happens every 100 years, but happened in 2005 and 2010. Millions of trees have died and these trees will release the carbon they have stored for over 300 years. 'The two droughts will end up adding an estimated 13 billion tons of additional CO2 into the atmosphere. This is equal to the combined emissions in 2009 from the world's largest emitters - China and the US.'

Economic Truth about Climate Change

The Effects of Global Warming =30% Loss in the Economy Leading Economist Sir Nicholas Stern

Food Prices and Political Instability

The price of wheat went up 80% in 2010-2011. Government subsidies and ration cards in Egypt limited that price surge to 30% 40% of Egyptians income goes to food. This is true of poorer countries. (40% of Egyptians live on less than $2 a day) "Already countries such as Algeria, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar and Yemen have been snapping up supplies of wheat in the world market to forestall any hint of food price spikes—or regime change."

Degradation of the Oceans & the Ocean Food Supply

This has enormous ramifications for ocean ecosystems and for human beings because "coral reefs provide significant protein supplies to about a billion people

Wallace Broecker

To date, we have dealt with this problem as if its effects would come in the distant future and so gradually that we could easily cope with them. This is certainly a possibility, but I believe that there is an equal possibility that they will arrive suddenly and dramatically." "We play Russian roulette with climate, hoping that the future will hold no unpleasant surprises. No one knows what lies in the active chamber of the gun, but I am less optimistic about its contents than many.

What is required to hold the 2°C line?

To have a 64% chance (worse odds than Russian Roulette) of holding the 2°C line Developed countries like the US and Europe would have to: 1. Stop CO2 emissions growth this year (2011) 2. Reduce their emissions approximately 11% per year towards virtual total decarbonization by 2050. Developing countries, including China and India, which are allowed under prior International Climate Agreements to peak their emissions later, would have to Stop their emission growth by 2020. Reduce their emission 6% per year to 2050.

Greenland

Two Greenland Glaciers (Zachariae & Nioghalvfjerdsfjordenglacier) are in "rapid retreat"

US Position Do Not Be Deceived

US emissions pathway vs. Anderson and Bows for 2° C of equilibrium warming? The US had pledged prior to Paris to reduce emissions to 17% below 2005 levels by 2020, which is around 3% below 1990 levels. At Paris, the US Pledged to reduce emissions: "by 26-28 percent below the 2005 level in 2025, . . . To reach the new 2025 goal, the nation will have to double the pace." The emissions pathway of Anderson Bows requires that the US and other developed countries reduce emissions 56% below 1990 levels by 2020 and 98% per cent below 1990 levels by 2050

2012 Annual emmissions

US: 14.5% China: 26.9% India: 6.3%

1751-2012 cumulative emissions

US: 26% China: 10.7% India:3.0%

2040 - CO2 levels reach a level so that we cannot return to 350 ppm, which will lead to the destruction of most of the world's coral reefs

Warm water causes bleaching. Ocean Acidification

US Position under Pres. Obama (Contradictions)

While US carbon emissions have fallen over 10% below 2005 levels , US coal extraction is increasing so that the coal can be shipped overseas. Thus the US contribution to global warming is increasing because US extraction has increased and is as high as the peak in 2008.

variation of weather patterns

While the winter of 2009 - 2010, brought record snowstorms to Europe and the U.S. East Coast and the coldest temperatures in 25 years, Canada and much of the Arctic experienced the warmest winter on record.

Lonnie Thompson

Why then are climatologists speaking out about the dangers of global warming? The answer is that virtually all of us are now convinced that global warming poses a clear and present danger to civilization.

cold air arctic blanket

cause colder winters for some due to covering

4th generation nuclear

could be promising in the long term but likely cannot help us over the next two decades

revenue-neutral carbon tax

fee and dividend approach that puts a fee of $10/ton of CO2, increasing $10/ton/year, with 100% of the revenue returned to households. need to increase the fee every year

2100 emissions scenario

high: 900 ppm low: 550 ppm 2008 observed: 400ppm

when the shift took place from accurate reporting to a distorted sense of balance both in terms of information on anthropogenic climate change (ACC) and action regarding ACC

in 1988 and1989, the vast majority of coverage emphasized anthropogenic contributions to global warming, thereby mirroring the scientific discourse of the time

indicators of the world warming

increase in: temperature over land, tree lines shifting upward and poleward, species migrating poleward and upward, ocean heat content, sea level, air temp near surface, temperature over oceans, sea surface temp decrease in: glaciers, snow cover, permafrost retreating poleward, spring coming earlier, sea ice, ice sheets.

The Arctic Paradox & Global Weirding

loss or arctic sea ice changes in atmospheric pressure and winds potentially resulting in more severe winter storms in eastern US and Eurasia

underestimated

rate of sea ice melt, melting of great ice sheets, sea level rise, rate of ocean acidification

10 indicators og human fingerprint

shrinking thermosphere rising tropopause nights are warming faster than the days 32 billion tonnes of CO2 per year less oxygen in the air less heat escaping into space cooling of the stratosphere more heat returning to earth more fossil fuel carbon in air more fossil fuel carbon in coral

Copenhagen International Accord, 2009

the United States and more than 100 other countries agreed ( a non-binding agreement) to work toward holding global temperature increases to no more than 2 °C (3.6 °F) (over the preindustrial period from 1850.

Drought I

the levels of aridity of the recent multiyear drought or the Dust Bowl and the 1950s droughts will become the new climatology of the American Southwest within a time frame of years to decades

Basic argument of Boykoff in general terms.

the press's adherence to balance actually leads to biased coverage of both anthropogenic contributions to global warming andresultant action

Nuclear

too expensive

Major Decline of Snow Pack in California

under the B1 scenario [3 ˚ C], . . . Sierra snowpack is reduced 30-70%. Under A1fi [ 5 ˚ C], . . . snowpack declines 73-90%

2060

~ 650 - 700 ppmv CO2 3.6° C Equilibrium Warming*

2070

~ 650 - 700 ppmv CO2 4° C Equilibrium Warming with Fast Feedbacks.

2090

~ 900 - 950 ppmv CO2 ~4.5 - 4.7° C Equilibrium Warming*

Hansen Proposal to reduce to 350 ppm (1 °C)

1. 130 GtC left in carbon budget 2. Must store another 100 GtC in biosphere 3. Reduce fossil fuel emissions globally by 6% per year starting 2013

US press

1. Putting US reporting in Context - Differences Among Countries in Reporting 2. Insufficient Coverage 3. Reporting that is not factual reflecting political ideology

Post Election 2016

115th Congress 180 climate science deniers 142 - House ( 59% of Republicans) 38 - Senate (73% of Republicans) Received more than $82 million from fossil fuel industries

10 hottest years globally

15 of the hottest 16 years on record have all occurred since 2000. In 2014 , 13 of the 15 hottest years on record occurred since 2000 and the odds of that happening without global warming is 1 in 27 million. For the past 40 straight years (since 1976) the global temperature has been above the long term average (i.e. 1951 to 1980 average)

Annual Global temp anomaly

1990s was the warmest decade at the time. Every year of 2000s warmer than 1990s average 1980s warmest decade at the time. Every year of 1990s warmer than the 1980s average

Committed Warming

2.1° - 2.6 ° C 1. Present Warming - 1.0° C 2. Thermal Inertia - 0.6 ° C 3. Aerosols (?) - 0.5 - 1.0° C

Committed Sea Level Rise

4 feet plus

Destroying the Base of the Ocean Food Chain

40% decline in Ocean Phytoplankton since 1950 linked to the rise in ocean sea surface temperatures According to the lead author marine biologist Boris Worm, "Phytoplankton are a critical part of our planetary life support system. They produce half of the oxygen we breathe, draw down surface CO2 and ultimately support all of our fishes." "If this holds up, something really serious is underway and has been underway for decades. I've been trying to think of a biological change that's bigger than this and I can't think of one."

The Most Prestigious Scientific Experts in the Relevant Scientific Fields

97-98% of climate researchers support the ACC outlined by the IPCC