Cognitive Psychology Exam 3
According to Simon and Newell, what are the basic characteristics of the human information-processing system?
1. The system is serial: that is, our brains only work on solving one thing at a time. 2. Elementary processes take less than one second of time to complete. 3. Inputs and outputs are stored in a limited capacity short term memory. 4. Long Term Memory is larger than short term memory but slower to process input and output.
Think about the things that influence our perception of risk, Which heuristic is involved when we use media coverage to determine risk or base rate probability? How has the media historically done a poor job of fostering accurate perceptions of risk?
AVAILABILITY HEURISTIC is used when we use media coverage to determine risk or base rate probability. The availability heuristic is a mental shortcut that relies on immediate examples that come to a given person's mind when evaluating a specific topic, concept, method or decision. The media exaggerates things to get more viewers
What is an algorithm? What are the advantages and disadvantages of using an algorithm?
Algorithm: Think about it as a recipe. If you follow the recipe exactly, theoretically you should get a consistent product every time you do it. ADVANTAGE: You should get the same thing every time you do it. DISADVANTAGE: You have to do it exactly the same way every time for it to work (like a recipe).
What is the availability heuristic?
Availability Heuristic - When we ask ourselves how easily I can retrieve from memory an instance of this? If I can't think of many times this has happened than it is unlikely... but if I can think of times it has happened then I will think it is likely to happen.
What is base-rate neglect?
Base rate neglect - not paying attention to the statistical evidence towards something.
How does Bayes' Theorem help us evaluate the results of medical screening?
Bayes theorem- combines a base rate probability and a conditional probability to give us a posterior probability ( prior probability + conditional probability = posterior probability)
What is Bayes' Theorem? What does it allow us to do? Do people follow it when making decisions?
Bayes theorem- combines a base rate probability and a conditional probability to give us a posterior probability ( prior probability + conditional probability = posterior probability) Bayes theorem allows us to calculate the probability that something will happen given evidence for or against that something. No, people don't follow it when making decisions because emotions cloud their judgement.
What are framing effects?
Framing effects- How options are worded
What is the Expected Utility Model? Do people follow it when making decisions? Be able to calculate the "best" of two options involving gains or involving gains and losses.
The EXPECTED UTILIY MODEL allows us to determine what the best choice is when making decisions. The expected utility model allows us to combine the probability with the $ value to give us which choice is the better of the two. For example... 45% probability of winning $200 or 50% probability of winning $150 Take the probability of winning and multiply that by the amount to be won... (.45 x 200 = you win $90, .5 x $150 = you win $75) ... option one is better (on average). No, people don't tend to follow this model when making decisions because emotions cloud their judgement.
What is the certainty effect? The pseudocertainty effect?
The certainty effect results from a reduction of probability from certain to probable and it makes people more likely to take the chance. The pseudo certainty effect is peoples tendency to perceive an outcome as certain when in reality it is uncertain.
What is functional fixedness? We will discuss two classic studies of them and you should know the details from these studies.
When we have one use for a tool so we only want to use that tool the one way.
What is a heuristic? ?
any approach to problem solving that employs a practical method not guaranteed to be optimal or perfect, but sufficient for the immediate goals.
What is the difference between conditional, deductive, and inductive reasoning?
conditional reasoning - from a condition if/then statement deductive reasoning - using logic, conclusions are valid as long as logical rules are followed inductive reasoning - making inferences conclusions are probabilistic
What does it mean to be rational or have reason?
to behave or think logically
What is a conditional statement? Given one, be able to identify modus ponens, modens tollens, affirmation of the consequent, and denial of the antecedent.
A conditional statement is an if then statement. antecedent comes before (its the if part) consequent comes after (its the then part) modus ponens - is when you are told that the if part is true so you can conclude that the then part is true. modus tollens - is when you know that the then part is false so you can conclude that the if part is false affirmation of the consequent - when you are told that the then part is true so you can conclude that the if part is also true denial of the antecedent - when you are told that the if part is false so you conclude that the then part is false
What is a syllogism? Understand how to evaluate them for validity.
A form of reasoning in which a conclusion is drawn from two given true facts. Its a three statement set of items. You can use Ven diagrams to test their validity.
We will discuss other examples of real-world problem solving - know the basic information of what the problem was and what the proposed solution was.
Gick and holik asked people to rid the country of the dictator but the mines between the army and the dictator could only hold a few pounds of weight. The answer was to send the people across one by one. People didnt always get that so a second problem was given to them to see if they could make the connection between the two. People didn't always make the connection but... Results when participants were told they could use the second problem to solve the first, they are more likely to solve the first problem...
Know what Hammerton (1973) did and found. Why do people make these sorts of mistakes?
Hammerton (1973) 1. If someone is a sufferer, there is a 90% chance that he will be recorded positively. 2. If he is not a sufferer, there is still a 1% chance that he will be recorded positively. 3. Roughly 1% of the population has the disease. In all experiments participants were asked to judge the probability that someone actually had the disease (and were diagnosed with it). In experiment 1, participants were given ALL of the above information. In experiment 2, participants were given all different amounts of the above information and in different orders. Some participants were asked to rate their confidence in their answer. RESULTS: The average answer participants gave was that the people were 85% likely to have the disease. People make these sorts of mistakes because People were overconfident (EVEN WHEN THEY DIDN'T HAVE ENOUGH INFORMATION TO CALCULATE THE PROBABILITY!). (PEOPLE IGNORED THE BASE RATE! --#3--)
What are the four stages of ill-defined problem solving, according to Goel (2010)?
I'll defined problems are solved via four stages: 1. Problem scoping- Using the knowledge that you have to try to understand the problem 2. Preliminary solution generation- Trying to come up with some ideas about what a solution might be. ("Lateral"-(side to side) Transformation) 3. Refinement- The process of starting to work toward a solution ("Vertical"-(up and down) transformation) 4. Detailing of solutions - Commitment to the method of solving the problem and the solution you get as a result.
What role do the anterior cingulate cortex and right lateral prefrontal cortex play in heuristic decision-making?
IT WAS A TWO STEP PROCESS IN PEOPLES BRAINS TO SOLVE THESE PROBLEMS... steps: 1. Anterior Cingulate Cortex (Brain area that was active during this study) - the part of the brain participants used to detect the conflict (everyone detected it). and 2. Right Lateral Prefrontal Cortex (Brain area that was active during this study)- the part of the brain the participants used IF THEY OVERCAME THE HEURISTIC AND WENT WITH THE BASE RATE.
What is the Wason Selection Task (traditional form)? Know the cards that people are supposed to turn over, given an example from the article and even examples not directly tested. Which card(s) do people actually turn over, and why?
In the wason selection task a series of cards is placed facing up for the participant. the participant is given an if then rule (a conditional rule) and are told that they need to turn over the minimum amount of cards necessary to prove that the rule has been broken. the question is which card do you need to turn over at minimum. Given the example in the article you are supposed to turn over the P and the not Q card. People actually - in the initial selection nobody turned over just the p and the not q, but in the revised selection, 4 out of 18 selected the correct answer and 4 out of 9 turned over the PQ because they picked the value that was in the then part of the statement instead of the not version of that (consequent error).
How does inductive reasoning differ from deductive reasoning?
Inductive reasoning - judging if something is valid/ makes sense .......................deductive reasoning - giving a conclusion based off whether or not evidence is valid.
Know each of the following types of logical fallacies by name and be able to identify an example: strawman, slippery slope, ad hominem, the gambler's fallacy, bandwagon, black-or-white, appeal to authority, appeal to nature, anecdotal, appeal to emotion, tu quoque, Texas sharpshooter. (Some of these may be covered the next day)
Logical Fallacies: Consistent Flaws Strawman - portraying someone's argument incorrectly so that it is easier for you to attack it. Slippery Slope - When you claim that if we allow this thing to happen than this thing will happen too, and then this will happen as a result and then this and this until it results in something very very very bad. Ad Hominem- Attacking Somebody on personal characteristics Gamblers Fallacy - Believing that the probability of something happening is more or less than it really is Bandwagen Black or white- there are only two possible scenarios here. appeal to authority- adopts a position because that position is affirmed by a person they believe to be an authority. appeal to nature- something is assumed to be good because it is natural or bad because it is unnatural. anecdotal- places undue weight on experiences of close peers which may not be typical. Compare with hasty generalization appeal to emotion- manipulation of the recipient's emotions in order to win an argument, especially in the absence of factual evidence. tu quoque- discredit the validity of the opponent's logical argument by asserting the opponent's failure to act consistently in accordance with its conclusion(s). Texas sharpshooter- committed when differences in data are ignored, but similarities are stressed
Understand the inductive reasoning tasks we did in class - Mastermind and the task of Bruner, Goodnow, and Austin (1956). What types of rules are possible for the Bruner et al. task? Which ones are the easiest and hardest? What strategies are available?
Mastermind (the color dot and you have to guess them in the right order game. Bruner et al. (Gave participants 81 cards which differ from each other in 4 ways: 1. shape on card 2. number of boarders on card 3. color of shapes on card 4. number of shapes on card. Had researcher ask participants to point out cards until they guessed the rule. The types of rules included the following: Simple rules - one feature of the card Conjunctive rules - one feature of one card and one feature of a different card. Disjunctive rules - one feature of one card or one feature of another card. Negative rules - not this feature Relational Rule - # of this feature matches # of that feature. the easiest rules are ... the hardest rules are ... strategies - Focus Gambling (pick a card that's different on every dimension than one), random search, scan and search
If we build a computer model that can accurately mimic human problem-solving performance, can we claim that the model is solving the problem is exactly the same way that a human would, using the same processes and mechanisms?
No
Are people rational? What is the notion of bounded rationality?
People are not always rational because sometimes emotions get the best of them. Bounded rationality means that our rationality is bounded by our tolerance for emotion, the amount of information given to us, and the time available for us to make a decision.
What mistakes do people make when performing deductive reasoning tasks? We will see some examples.
People sometimes fall for biases that cloud their judgement.
What is meant by prior probability, conditional probability, and posterior probability? How do they relate to one another and how do they fit in with the theorem?
Prior probability - the base rate (how likely something would happen at all in a certain area/ probability of a hypothesis being true) Conditional Probability - the evidence (what you know about the situation/ evidence that the hypothesis is true) Posterior Probability- Final probability given that the prior probability and the conditional probability has been taken into account. They relate to one another and fit into Bayes theorem because the theorem combines a base rate probability and a conditional probability to give us a posterior probability ( prior probability + conditional probability = posterior probability)
What is a problem space? Understand how they are constructed and what the branches and levels mean. We worked through an example of tic-tac-toe in class.
Problem Space- any problem can be demonstrated as an upside down tree. Each step you take brings you to a different part of the trees root and there are a plethora of possibilities of branch tips (solutions) you could end at. Picture the bottom of an upside down tree as problem space
What is a problem? What are its three components?
Problem: A problem is a situation without an immediately apparent, standard, or routine way of reaching a goal. Every problem has three critical components: 1. A goal state (what you're working to achieve) 2. An initial state (what you start with) 3. Operators (the materials you have to use that could help you solve the problem)
Understand each of the problem sets in Tversky and Kahneman (1981). Why do people choose the way they do in each case?
Problems 1 and 2: Framing Effects and Risk Researchers give participants the choice to pick between the following choices: With program A- 200 people will be saved and 400 will die With program B- there is a 33% chance that 600 people will be saved and a 66% chance that 600 people will die People tend to choose A. Researchers give participants the choice to pick between the following choices: With program C- 400 people will die. With program D- there is a 33% chance that 600 people will be saved and a 66% chance that 600 people will die. Prospect Theory: Gains vs. Losses Ie. If you have the chance to win $10 or loose $10.. you like gaining $10 less than you dislike loosing $10. Prospect Theory: Probability weighing Ie. Giving a poor person the chance to win ten dollars means more to them than giving a rich person the chance to win ten dollars means to them. Also ... as we get low in probability values, our mind makes us think we have more than a chance than we do... but as the probability gets very high, our mind makes us think we have less than a chance than we do. Problems 3 and 4 (Simon, 1995) Problem 3 Make a choice: A- Pick a sure chance of winning $40 B- Pick a 25% chance of gaining $1000, and 75% chance of losing nothing Problem 4 Make a Choice: C- Pick looing $750 D- Pick a 75% chance of loosing $1000, and a 25% chance of losing nothing Problem 5-7 Failure to Account for Contingencies Problem 5 Choose either A- A sure chance of winning $30 B- 80% chance to win $45 Problem 6 Choose either C- A sure chance of $30+ if you move on to the second stage (with a 25% chance to move onto the second chance) D- 80% chance to win $45 (people treated choice C as a sure chance Problem 7 Choose either E- 25% chance of winning $30 F- 20% chance of winning $45 Problems 8 and 9- Failure to account for similarity and outcomes Problem 8: Admission is a play to 10$. You had a 10$ bill but lost it. Would you still pay the 10$? Problem 9: Problem 10: Would you be willing to drive 20 min to save 5$. Participants were more likely to drive 20 min to save $5 on a 15$ calculator than they were to drive 20 to save $5 on a $125 calculator People tend to take more risks when the information is given in a positive way vs when it is presented negatively.
What does it mean to reason by analogy when it comes to problem solving? How does the Gick and Holyoak (1980) study show this?
Reasoning by analogy means reasoning by making connections to similar circumstances... gick and holaks study shows this because the participants are given two stories to see if they can make the connection between the two stories to solve the first problem.
What is the representativeness heuristic? How are the Linda and Jack stories examples of it?
Representativeness Heuristic -We judge how likely something is based on how well the description matches our idea of a stereotype. The Linda and Jack stories are examples of the availability heuristic because they describe a person and then give two options of what the person might be. People are swayed to pick the option that best matches the stereotype that the person was described as.
How did Rips (2001) study deductive versus inductive reasoning? What were the results?
Rips designed a study with 4 conditions. Participants were exposed to different syllogisms in each condition. Condition A was deductively correct and causally consistent. Condition B was deductively correct and causally inconsistent. Condition C was Deductively incorrect and causally consistent. Condition D was deductively incorrect and causally inconsistent. He found that inductive reasoning and deductive strength are processed the same way.
What role does the prefrontal cortex play in solving well- vs. ill-defined problems, according to Goel (2010)?
Solving ill defined problems often requires creativity, the right prefrontal cortex is therefore associated with creativity because the right side of the brain is required to solve ill defined problems. The left prefrontal cortex is required to solve well defined problems.
According to Simon and Newell, what is the difference between a "scan-and-search" strategy and a "progressive deepening" strategy? Which one do people typically do? Why might they do this?
The most efficient form of problem solving is the scan and search strategy. The scan and search strategy involves identifying a node on the tree and going to it. progressive deepening - pick one close to us, then another and another... with the progressive deepening strategy we can only look at a very limited path in the tree because we have a very limited short term memory. People typically use the progressive deepening strategy because they don't like to take steps back while they are problem solving
Know what DeNeys, Vartanian, and Goel (2008) did and found.
They describes a person to participants and asked participants to tell them who that person was based on their description. Incongruent - heuristic and probability (base rate) lead to different choices Jack is 45 ad has 4 children. He shows no interest in political and social issues and is generally conservative. He likes sailing and mathematical puzzles. Engineer or Lawyer? ... (.base rate engineer... heuristic = lawyers)... people are told there are 5 engineer and 995 lawyer Congruent (control) - heuristic and probability (base rate) lead to same choice Marco is 16. He loves to play soccer with his friends, after which they all go out for pizza or to someone's house for homemade pasta. (base rate and heuristic both lead you to the same response... base rate= sweetish, heuristic = Italians)... Neutral (control) - cannot use heuristics, must use probability (base rate) only Jim is 5 ft. and 8 in. tall, has black hair , and is the father of 2 kids.. does he support bush or Clinton? (no stereotypical/base rate info..) Heuristic (control) - cannot use probability (base rate), must use heuristic only Dug lives in Buffalo. He hangs out with his buddies every day and likes
Understand what Carraher, Carraher, and Schliemann (1986) did and found. What sort of mistakes did the children make?
They looked at street venders and asked them questions regarding the price of their merchandise that required a certain mental process. Then they took the children into a lab and had them fill out a test that required completing the same mental processes. The children did better on the street than on the test even though the questions were the same. Researcgers concluded that was because the questions were presented differently.
What is the modified Wason Selection Task? We will discuss three examples. Know the cards that people are supposed to turn over and the ones that they actually do. Why is the modified version so much easier for people?
They related it to college age people, sealed and unsealed envelopes, a person entering the country who has a cholera vaccination, and its easier for people because they can relate to it.
What is the difference between a lateral transformation and a vertical transformation through problem space, according to Goel (2010)?
Trying to come up with some ideas about what a solution might be. ("Lateral"-(side to side) Transformation) The process of starting to work toward a solution ("Vertical"-(up and down) transformation)
What is the difference between a well-defined and an ill-defined problem? (Goel refers to these as "well-structured" and "ill-structured", but the concepts are the same.)
Well-define problems - problems in which all of the three critical components of problems are present. Ill Defined Problems - problems in which at least one of the critical components of problems are unclear.
What are the heuristics of random search, hill-climbing, and means-ends analysis? Be able to identify the heuristic in use when solving the Rubik's Cube, the Hobbits & Orcs Problem, the Tower of Hanoi, and cryptarithmetic problems.
random search: (like a guestimate, you guess and see if it works then if it doesn't you guess again and again and again... until you get it right) Hill climbing: You keep making steps that you feel will help you to get closer to the solution, until you reach the desired solution. Means-ends analysis: a method used in artificial intelligence which involves setting up smaller sub-goals which complement the end aim or goal and then constantly re-evaluate the performance of those sub-goals. Hill Climbing Heuristic Ie. Rubik's Cube Random search ie. Hobbits and Orcs problem the Tower of Hanoi, and cryptarithmetic problems ie. Means-ends analysis
