Cognitive Psychology Goldstein 4th Ed Chapter 13
Validity, 387
Quality of a syllogism whose conclusion follows logically from its premises.
Inductive reasoning, 370
Reasoning in which a conclusion follows from a consideration of evidence. This conclusion is stated as being probably true rather than definitively true, as can be the case for the conclusions from deductive reasoning.
Deductive reasoning, 387
Reasoning that involves syllogisms in which a conclusion logically follows from premises. See also inductive reasoning.
Heuristics, 371
A "rules of thumb" that provides a best-guess solution to a problem.
Wason four-card problem, 393
A conditional reasoning task developed by Wason that involves for carts. Various versions of this problem have been used to study the mechanisms that determine the outcomes of conditional reasoning tasks.
Neuroeconomics, 385
An approach to studying decision-making that combines research from the fields of psychology, neuroscience, and economics. Illustrated by the "ultimatum game".
Social exchange theory, 395
An important aspect of human behavior is the ability for two people to cooperate in a way that is beneficial to both people. According to the evolutionary perspective on cognition, application of this theory can lead to the conclusion that detecting cheating is an important part of the brain's cognitive makeup. This idea has been used to explain the results of the Wason four-card problem.
Stereotype, 373
An oversimplified generalization about a group or class of people that often focuses on the negative characteristics. See also Illusory correlation.
TEST YOURSELF 13.1 2. How is inductive reasoning involved in everyday experience?
Anytime we make a prediction about what will happen based on our observations about what has happened in the past, we are using inductive reasoning. Examples: Noticing the types of questions asked on an exam, and using that to study for the next exam. Placing an order with a company since we had good service last time. We often are not consciously aware we are using inductive reasoning--when we sit a chair--it's automatic--would be too time consuming if we had to approach every experience as if it were the first time.
Belief bias, 388
Tendency to think a syllogism is valid if its conclusion is believable or that it is invalid if the conclusion is not believable.
Reasoning, 370
Cognitive processes by which people start with information and come to conclusions that go beyond the information. See also Deductive reasoning; Inductive reasoning.
MAKING JUDGMENTS ➢ The Availability Heuristic, 371
Heuristics are shortcuts people use from past experiences to help guide their decisions. Errors occur when an easily remembered event is less probable, demonstrated from the "relative prevalence of various causes of death" study.
Status quo bias, 383
Tendency to do nothing when faced with making a decision.
Risk aversion strategy, 384
The idea of saving 200 lives with certainty is more attractive than the 2/3 probability that no one will be saved.
Evolutionary perspective on cognition, 395
The idea that many properties of our minds can be traced to the evolutionary principles of natural selection. See also social exchange theory.
Dual systems approach, 397
The idea that there are two mental systems, one fast and the other slower, but have different capabilities and serve different functions.
Law of large numbers, 375
The larger the number of individuals that are randomly drawn from a population, the more representative the resulting group will be of the entire population.
TEST YOURSELF 13.1 7. What is the myside bias? Describe Lord's experiment on attitudes about capital punishment.
The myside bias is the tendency for people to generate and evaluate evidence and test their hypothesis in a way that is biased toward their own opinions and attitudes. Subjects with differing views on capital punishment read the same research, some of which showed evidence for and some evidence against cp as a deterrent to murder. The responses reflected the attitudes they had at the beginning of the experiment. One possibility is that people's prior beliefs may have caused to focus on information that agreed with their beliefs and to disregard information that didn't.
Representativeness heuristic, 373
The probability that an event A comes from class B can be determined by how well A resembles the properties of class B.
Falsification principle, 393
The reasoning principle that to test a rule, it is necessary to look for situations that would falsify the rule .
Base rate, 374
The relative proportions of different classes in the population. Failure to consider base rates can often lead to errors in reasoning.
TEST YOURSELF 13.1 3.3 Describe how the following can cause errors in reasoning: representativeness heuristic
The representativeness heuristic is based on the idea that people often make judgments based on how much one event resembles another event. Errors due to this heuristic have been demonstrated by asking subject to judge a person's occupation based on descriptive information. Errors occur when the representativeness heuristic leads people to ignore base rate information. In other situations, judgement errors occur when people ignore the conjunction rule and the law of large numbers.
Risk aversion, 381
The tendency to make decisions that avoid risk.
Confirmation bias, 376
The tendency to selectively look for information that conforms to our hypothesis and to overlook information that argues against it.
TEST YOURSELF 13.1 8. What is the confirmation bias? Describe Wason's experiment on sequences of numbers.
A confirmation bias is broader than the myside bias because it holds for any situation (not just for opinions or attitudes) in which information is favored that confirms a hypothesis. Operation of this bias was demonstrated by Wason's number sequence task. The subjects were asked to identify a rule that applies to series of triples of numbers. Wason made up a role for the construction of the given sequences of numbers. For instance, the three numbers "2-4-6" satisfy this rule. To find out what the rule is, Wason said the subjects may construct other sets of three numbers to test their assumptions about the rule the experimented has in mind. For every three numbers the subjects will be coming up with, the experimenter will tell them whether it satisfies the rule or not, until the subject comes up with the right rule. Almost all subjects formed this hypothesis and tried number sequences that only prove their hypothesis and very few actually tried to make up a number sequence that might disprove their hypothesis. Wason's Rule Discovery Test proves that most people do not try at all to test their hypotheses critically but rather to confirm them.
Illusory correlations, 373
A correlation that appears to exist between two events, when in reality there is no correlation or it is weaker than it is assumed to be.
Ultimatum game, 385
A game in which a proposer is given a sum of money and makes an offer to the responder as to how this money should be split between them. The responder must choose to accept the offer or reject it. This game has been used to study people's decision-making strategies.
Permission schema, 394
A pragmatic reasoning schema that states that if a person satisfies condition A, then they get to carry out action B. The permission schema has been used to explain the results of the Wason four-card problem.
Syllogism, 387
A series of three statements: two premises followed by a conclusion. The conclusion can follow from the premises based on the rules of logic. See also Categorical syllogism, Conditional syllogism.
Mental model, 389
A specific situation that is represented in a person's mind.
Categorical syllogisms, 387
A syllogism in which the premises and conclusion describe the relationship between two categories by using statements that begin with All, No, or Some.
Risk-taking strategy, 384
Decision-making strategy that is governed by the idea of taking risks. Often used when a problem is stated in terms of losses. See also Risk aversion strategy.
Framing effect, 384
Decisions are influenced by how the choices are stated.
TEST YOURSELF 13.2 7.1 How does the way choices are presented affect the decisions people make?
Decisions can depend on how choices are presented, or framed. Evidence includes the differences in behavior with opt-in versus opt-out procedures, the results of Slovic's experiment involving decisions about a mental patient, and people's response to the Tversky and Kahneman lethal disease problem. When a choice is framed in terms of gains, people tend to use a risk aversion strategy, but when the choice is framed in terms of losses, people tend to use a risk-taking strategy.
TEST YOURSELF 13.2 6.1 How does context affect decisions?
Decisions can depend on the context In which they are made. The number of available choices, the types of decision-making that preceded this decision, and hunger or strategic can all affect decisions.
Expected emotion, 381
Emotion that a person predicts he or she will feel for a particular outcome of a decision.
DECISION MAKING: CHOOSING AMONG ALTERNATIVES, 378
Emphasis on how people make judgments that involve choices between different courses of action May involve personal or professional decisions One basic properties: Decisions involve both benefits and costs
Availability heuristic, 372
Events that are more easily remembered are judged to be more probable than events that are less easily remembered.
DECISION MAKING: CHOOSING AMONG ALTERNATIVES ➢ Decisions Can Depend on the Context Within Which They Are Made, 382
Evidence that decision can be influenced by context come from experiments that show that adding alternatives to be considered as possible choices can influence decisions.
TEST YOURSELF 13.2 1.2 What are some examples of situations in which people do not behave to maximize the outcome, as the utility approach proposes?
Evidence that people do not always act in accordance with this approach includes gambling behavior, choosing to drive in the face of evidence that it is more dangerous than flying, and the behavior of contestants on quiz shows like Deal or No Deal.
TEST YOURSELF 13.2 4.1 What are expected emotions? Describe how expected emotions are related to risk aversion.
Expected emotions are emotions a person predicts will happen in response to the outcome of a decision. There is evidence that people are not always accurate in predicting their emotions. This can lead to risk aversion. An experiment by Kermer demonstrates the difference between predicted emotions and the emotions actually experienced after making the decision
DECISION MAKING: CHOOSING AMONG ALTERNATIVES ➢ How Emotions Affect Decisions People Inaccurately Predict Their Emotions, 381
Expected emotions are one of the determinants of risk aversion.
Premise, 387
First two statements in a syllogism. The third statement is the conclusion.
TEST YOURSELF 13.1 3.1 Describe how the following can cause errors in reasoning: availability heuristic
Heuristics are shortcuts people use from past experiences to help guide their decisions. Errors occur when an easily remembered event is less probable, demonstrated from the relative prevalence of various causes of death.
Expected utility theory, 378
Idea that people are basically rational, so if they have all the relevant information, they will make a decision that results in the most beneficial result.
TEST YOURSELF 13.1 3.2 Describe how the following can cause errors in reasoning: illusory correlations
Illusory correlations and stereotypes, which can lead to incorrect conclusions about relationships between things, are related to the availability heuristic, because they draw attention to specific relationships and therefore make them more "available"
Incidental emotions, 382
In a decision-making situation, emotions that are not directly caused by the act of having to make a decision.
Mental model approach, 389
In deductive reasoning, determining if syllogisms are valid by creating mental models of situations based on the premises of the syllogism.
DECISION MAKING: CHOOSING AMONG ALTERNATIVES ➢ How Emotions Affect Decisions Incidental Emotions Affect Decisions, 381
Incidental emotions can be related to a person's general disposition, something that happened earlier in the day, or the general environment such as background music.
MAKING JUDGMENTS ➢ The Nature of Inductive Reasoning
Inductive reasoning is the basis of scientific investigations in which observations are made, data are collected, and conclusions are drawn. Factors that can contribute to the strength of an inductive argument: 1) Representativeness of observations 2) Number of observations 3) Quality of the evidence
TEST YOURSELF 13.1 1. What is inductive reasoning? What factors contribute to the strength of an inductive argument?
Inductive reasoning is the basis of scientific investigations in which observations are made, data are collected, and conclusions are drawn. Factors that can contribute to the strength of an inductive argument: 1) Representativeness of observations 2) Number of observations 3) Quality of the evidence
MAKING JUDGMENTS ➢ Preconceptions, Attitudes, And Judgment, 376
Judgments are sometimes in error because we are seduced by various heuristics that lead us to ignore some evidence and thereby reach a faulty conclusion. Another influence on Judgement is the knowledge, attitudes, and preconceptions that people bring to the situation
TEST YOURSELF 13.2 4.2 Describe the Kermer experiment in which subjects rated their expected happiness before gambling and their actual happiness after the results were known.
Kermer et al. (2006). Tendency to avoid taking risks "losses loom over gains" loss has bigger impact than same amount gain • Each subject was given $5 • they could either win $5 or lose $3 depending on the flip of a coin • subjects rated their happiness before the exp. started and then predicted how their happiness would change if they won the coin toss (gain $5, end up with $10) or lost it (lose $3, be left with $2) • After coin toss, which some subjects won and some lost, they did a filler task for 10 minutes, then rated their happiness • the positive effect of winning and negative effect of losing turned out to be equal • people will rationalize their losses and not feel as bad as they predicted and the forget to take these coping mechanisms into account when predicting expected emotions
MAKING JUDGMENTS ➢ Preconceptions, Attitudes, And Judgment Lord 1979 Experiment, 376
Lord identified two groups of people, those in favor and those opposed to capital punishment. All the subjects read the same research, some providing evidence that it does have a deterrent effect on murder and some that showed no deterrent effect. When asked is the evidence convinced them one way or the other: Those in favor found the research to support it and those opposed found the research against it most compelling.
DECISION MAKING: CHOOSING AMONG ALTERNATIVES ➢ The Utility Approach to Decisions, 378
One of the advantages of the utility approach is that it specifies procedures that make it possible to determine which choice would result in the highest monetary value. Yet people do not always follow the strategy and regularly ignore the optimum way of responding based on probabilities. These observations and the results of many other experiments, have led psychologists to conclude that people do not follow the decision-making procedures proposed by expected utility theory.
MAKING JUDGMENTS ➢ Preconceptions, Attitudes, And Judgment Wason 1960 Experiment on Sequence of Numbers, 376
Methodology The subjects were asked to identify a rule that applies to series of triples of numbers. Wason made up a role for the construction of the given sequences of numbers. For instance, the three numbers "2-4-6" satisfy this rule. To find out what the rule is, Wason said the subjects may construct other sets of three numbers to test their assumptions about the rule the experimented has in mind. For every three numbers the subjects will be coming up with, the experimenter will tell them whether it satisfies the rule or not, until the subject comes up with the right rule. Results Most participants in Wason's experiment typically proceeded in the following manner: Given the sequence of "2-4-6", they first formed a hypothesis about the rule: A sequence of even numbers. Then they tried to test this rule by proposing more sequences of numbers that follow this rule. They tried "4-8-10", "6-8-12", "20-22-24". The feedbacks to all these sequences were positive. The subjects give a few more tries until they felt sure about their hypothesis and stopped since they thought they have already discovered the rule. The only thing is, this wasn't the rule. The rule was simply increasing numbers. Conclusion Almost all subjects formed this hypothesis and tried number sequences that only prove their hypothesis and very few actually tried to make up a number sequence that might disprove their hypothesis. The subjects did not ask questions to falsify their hypothesis because as much as possible, they do not want to break their own rules. Generally, people indeed find this difficult to do, for they do not want to face the possibility that their beliefs could be wrong. Wason's Rule Discovery Test proves that most people do not try at all to test their hypotheses critically but rather to confirm them.
TEST YOURSELF 13.2 9.1 What is neuroeconomics?
Neuroeconomics studies decision-making by combining approaches from psychology, neuroscience, and economics. The results of a neuroeconomics experiment using the ultimatum game have shown that people's emotions can interfere with their ability to make rational decisions. Brain Imaging indicates that the anterior insula is associated with the emotions that occur during the ultimatum game while the PFC may be involved in the cognitive demands of the task.
TEST YOURSELF 13.2 7.2 Describe the examples of organ donations, car insurance policies, and making judgments about the violence of mental patients., 383-384
Organ donor decision tends toward the status quo bias--where they do nothing--in this example with op-in or opt-out procedures. Countries vary in how organ donation is set up. Same for default or higher-rate insurance options. These have to do with whether a person chooses to make a decision to change. The way a choice is presented when forced to pick one alternative or another can influence that choice. In the case of the mental patient, one statement conjured up images of 20 people being beaten up, whereas the other is more abstract probability statement, that suggests there is a small chance that this patient will be violent. The two statements were: "20 out of every 100 patients similar to Mr. Jones are estimated to commit an act of violence." or "patients similar to Mr. Jones are estimated to have a 20 percent chance of committing an act of violence,"
Utility, 378
Outcomes that achieve a person's goals; in economic terms, the maximum monetary payoff.
TEST YOURSELF 13.1 6. Describe the male and female birth experiment. How did the results of this experiment relate to the law of large numbers?
People also make errors in reasoning by ignoring the importance of the size of the sample on which observations are based. We can understand why this result would occur by considering the statistical rule called the law of large numbers which states that the larger number of individuals that are randomly drawn from a population, the more representative the resulting group will be of the entire population. Conversely samples of small numbers of individuals will be less representative of the population. Imagine that there is a very small hospital that records only one birth each day. Over a period of a year there will be 365 births, with about 50% being boys and 50% being girls.--clearly percentages that are not representative of the overall population. People often assume that representativeness holds for small samples, and this results in errors in reasoning.
DECISION MAKING: CHOOSING AMONG ALTERNATIVES ➢ How Emotions Affect Decisions, 381
People with damage to an area of their prefrontal cortex, who suffer from flattened emotions and an inability to respond to emotional events, have impair decision-making. One explanation for this effect is that these people find it difficult to evaluate the emotional outcomes that may result from different decisions, although other reasons are likely to be involved as well People Inaccurately Predict Their Emotions Incidental Emotions Affect Decisions
DECISION MAKING: CHOOSING AMONG ALTERNATIVES ➢ Decisions Can Depend on How Choices Are Presented, 383
People's judgments are affected by the way choices are stated or framed (framing effect) because of the way a stated problem can highlight some features and deemphasize others.
TEST YOURSELF 13.2 3. What is the relation between anxiety, optimism, and decision making?
Personal qualities unrelated to brain damage have also been linked to decision-making. Anxious people tend to avoid making decisions that could potentially lead to large negative consequences, a response called risk avoidance. Another example is the quality of optimism, which is often considered a positive personal quality. However, optimistic people are more likely to ignore negative information and focus on the positive information, causing them to base their decisions on incomplete information. Too much optimism can therefore lead to poor decision-making.
TEST YOURSELF 13.2 6.2 Describe the prescribing medication experiment, the cesarean delivery experiment, and the parole board study.
Physicians were asked whether they would prescribe arthritis meds to a hypothetical 67-yr-old pt, 72% opted to prescribe when their choices was to prescribe a specific med or not prescribe anything. When a 2nd possible med was added , making to choice more difficult, so the choice became whether to prescribe med 1 or med 2 or nothing, only 53% opted to prescribe medication. In the cesarean delivery experiment,
MAKING JUDGMENTS ➢ The Nature of Inductive Reasoning In Everyday Life
Plays a major role in everyday life because we often make predictions about what we think will happen based on our observations about what has happened in the past.
Conjunction rule, 375
Probability of the conjunction of two events (such as feminist and bank teller) cannot be higher than the probability of the single constituents feminist alone or bank teller alone).
Opt-out procedure, 383
Procedure in which a person must take an active step to avoid a course of action--for example, choosing not to be an organ donor.
Opt-in procedure, 383
Procedure in which a person must take an active step to choose a course of action--for example, choosing to be an organ donor.
TEST YOURSELF 13.2 2. Describe what the behavior of contestants on Deal or No Deal tells us about what determines their decisions.
Research from analyzing 100s of games concluded that the contestants' choices are determined not just by the amounts of money left in the briefcases, but by what has happened leading up to their decision. If things are going well, and the "bank" begins offering more and more, they are likely to be cautious and accept a deal early. In contrast, when doing poorly, and the "bank's" offers go down, they are likely to take more risks and keep playing. Theory is that those doing poorly want to avoid the negative feeling of being a loser, so take more risks in the hope of "beating the odds" and coming out ahead in the end--emotions determine their choices.
DECISION MAKING: CHOOSING AMONG ALTERNATIVES ➢ Neuroeconomics: The Neural Basis of Decision Making, 385
Studies how brain activation is related to decisions that involve potential gains or losses. Research shows emotions are associated with activity in specific areas of the brain.
Conditional syllogisms, 391
Syllogism with two premises and a conclusion, like a categorical syllogism, but whose first premise is an "If... then" statement.
MAKING JUDGMENTS How confirmation bias influences our judgment Table 13.2 Potential Sources of Errors in Judgments, 377
The confirmation bias acts like a pair of blinders-- we see the world according to the rules we think are correct and are never dissuaded from this view because we seek only evidence that confirms our rule. As we saw in the Lord experiment, these blinders created by our attitudes can influence our judgement in ways that extend beyond how we go about solving a problem. However remember that judgments are often accurate and useful, but research designed to determine mechanisms involved in making judgments has focus on situations in which errors occur.
TEST YOURSELF 13.1 5. What is the conjunction rule? Describe the experiment involving Linda the bank teller and indicate how it relates to both the representativeness heuristic and the conjunction rule.
The conjunction rule states that the probability of a conjunction of two events (A and B) cannot be higher than the probability of the single constituents (A alone or B alone). DEMO: Description of a Person Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated and antinuclear demonstrations. Which of the following Alternatives is more probable? 1. Linda is a bank teller. 2. Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement. The correct answer to this problem is statement # 1 which has a greater probability of being true, although 85% of subjects picked statement # 2. Because there are more bank tellers (A) and feminists bank tellers (B), stating that Linda is a bank teller includes the possibility that she is a feminist bank teller.
TEST YOURSELF 13.1 4. How can failure to take into account base rates cause errors in reasoning? Be sure you understand how the judging occupations experiment relates to the representative heuristic and base rates.
The description of Robert wearing glasses, speaking quietly, and reading a lot matched the subjects image of a typical librarian. Best they were influenced by the fact that the description of Robert matches their conception of what a librarian is like. they were ignoring another important source of information--the base rates of farmers and librarians in the population. The effects of knowing the base rate increased correct judgments, One study showed that when any descriptive information is available, people disregard base rate information, and this can potentially cause errors in reasoning. Correctly applying j descriptive information when available is important for correct judgments.
Conclusion (of syllogism), 387
The final statement in a syllogism, which follows from two premises.
TEST YOURSELF 13.2 1.1 What is the basic assumption of the expected utility approach to decision making?
The utility approach to decision making is based on the idea that people are basically rational, so when they have all of the relevant information, they will make decisions that result in outcomes that are in their best interest.
TEST YOURSELF 13.2 5.1 What is some evidence that incidental emotions affect decisions?
There's a large amount of evidence that incidental emotions can affect decisions. Examples include the relationship between the weather and college admissions, and Lerner's experiment showing a relationship between emotions like sadness and anger and decisions regarding how to set buying and selling prices.
Myside bias, 376
Type of confirmation bias in which people generate and test hypotheses in a way that is biased towards their own opinions and attitudes.
TEST YOURSELF 13.2 8.1 Describe the "What Would You Do?" demonstration., 384
What Would You Do? Imagine that the US is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual disease that is expected to kill 600 people. Two alternative programs to combat the disease have been proposed. Assume that the exact scientific estimates of the consequences of the programs are as follows: • If Program A is adopted, 200 people will be saved • If Program B is adopted there is a 1/3 probability that 600 people with be saved and a 2/3 probability that no people will be saved. Which of the two programs would you favor? • Now consider the following additional proposals for combating the same disease: • If Program C is adopted, 400 people will die • If Program D is adopted, there is a 1/3 probability that nobody will die, and a 2/3 probability that 600 people will die. Which of these two programs would you pick?
MAKING JUDGMENTS ➢ The Representativeness Heuristic, 372
While the availability heuristic is related to how often we expect events to occur, the representativeness heuristic is related to the idea that people often make judgments based on how much one event resembles another event. 1) Making Judgments Based On Resemblance Demo: Judging Occupations--not taking into account base rates 2) Making Judgments Without Considering The Conjunction Rule Demo: Description of a person (bank teller / feminist) 3) Incorrectly Assuming That Small Samples Are Representative Demo: Male & Female births--not considering the law of large numbers
Decisions, 370
making choices between alternatives
judgment
the ability to make considered decisions or come to sensible conclusions.
Backfire effect
the finding that an individuals support for a particular viewpoint could actually become stronger when faced with corrective facts opposing their viewpoint
