Final: Comparative Government

"10 Stages of Genocide"

"All cultures have categories to distinguish people into 'us and them' by ethnicity, race, religion, or nationality ... One of most important classifications in the current nation-state system is citizenship in a nationality. Removal or denial of a group's citizenship is a legal way to deny the group's civil and human rights." "Classification and symbolization are universally human and do not necessarily result in genocide unless they lead to dehumanization. When combined with hatred, symbols may be forced upon unwilling members of pariah groups..."

affective polarization

"Ordinary Americans increasingly dislike and distrust those from the other party. Democrats and Republicans both say that the other party's members are hypocritical, selfish, and closed-minded, and they are unwilling to socialize across party lines. This phenomenon of animosity between the parties is known as affective polarization." -The Origins and Consequences of Affective Polarization in the United States, Iyengar et al.

SOCIAL MEDIA

(1) Reduce the frequency and intensity of public performance -Demetrication (2) Reduce the reach of unverified accounts. -Identification (3) Reduce the contagiousness of low-quality information. -AI flagging

Let's review: What is ethnicity?

1. Membership in the group is reckoned primarily by descent by both members and non-members (i.e., common ancestry) 2. Members are conscious of group membership and view it as normatively and psychologically important to them 3. Members share some distinguishing cultural features, such as common language, religion, and customs. 4. These cultural features are held to be valuable by a large majority of members of the group. 5. The group has a homeland, or at least ``remembers'' one. 6. The group has a shared and collectively represented history as a group. Further, this history is not wholly manufactured, but has some basis in fact.

A Tale of Two Rebellions

1991: First Darfur rebellion 2003: Second Darfur rebellion

Maintaining Patriarchy: Resources, Law and Culture What are ways that men maintain hierarchy—materially, ideationally and legally?

As agricultural revolution increases men control of agricultural surplus, they seek to monopolize power and wealth Patrilineal system (in which titles and property are passed from fathers to sons) reproduces men's control of wealth and power Restrictions on education, access to certain jobs, exclusion from military, owning of property Sexual difference becomes barrier to prevent women's access to dominant coalition Men have an incentive to prevent sexual revolution and the upending of the power structure—reinforcing unequal distribution of resources

Overthrow of Bashir

Bashir arrested by military on April 11, 2019 and Transitional Military Council takes over, with Hemedti, head of the Rapid Support Forces, as Deputy Chairperson

Darfur 2003: What Went Wrong?

Ethno-regional Fall Out "A majority of Darfurians, particularly non-Arabs, gathered with Turabi. He tried to utilize them, especially those in the army, to consolidate his position against Bashir." -High ranking NIF/NCP official who sided with Bashir "Hassan al Turabi had a prescient vision of Darfur...He learned from history. The Mahdi [the Islamo-nationalist revolutionary leader in the 1880s who liberated Sudan from the Turco-Egyptian colonial regime] had faced the elite of northern Sudan who rejected and ridiculed Mahdism. So he turned to the west and stormed the Nile from Kordofan and Darfur." -Signatory of the Memorandum of Ten that called to weaken Turabi' s control of the ruling party The Outbreak of the 2003 Darfur Civil War

Women in highest paid positions in state

Heads of state: 6.6% Heads of government: 6.2% Speakers of parliament: 20.5% Deputy speakers: 25.3%

Implications of the Robbers Cave Experiment: Spontaneous Group Formation

However, in-group solidarity is strengthened by out-group competition Group difference and competition can lead to denigration and negative views of outgroup One gets positive utility when group does well especially at expense of out-group

Social Insurance

Life at subsistence is risky; need support network: self-defense force to protect village from raid; share harvest with fellow farmer whose crops hit by pestilence Problem: individuals opt in when need help; opt out when don't Network is in perpetual deficit; it will collapse

The challenge with these types of solutions...they represent big, slow-moving structural changes...urbanization, markets, states, nationalism...what about more immediate, smaller scale interventions?

What about social interventions like the soccer league Mousa and colleagues started? What are the promises and limitations of such an approach to facilitate social contact to reduce social divisions and inter-group cooperation?

Sudan Timeline

• 1820-1821: northern Sudan incorporated into Ottoman Empire (Sudd swamp prevented penetration into southern Sudan) • 1885: Islamo-nationalist revolution against corrupt and repressive Ottoman rule • 1896-1899: British conquest of Sudan and colonial rule • 1916: Fur Kingdom annexed • 1920s: Adoption of "closed-door" policy to keep South Sudan "protected" from North Sudan • 1956: Sudan independence as one country • 1963: Outbreak of first civil war in South Sudan • 1972: Addis Ababa Peace Agreement ends first civil war • 1983: Outbreak of second civil war in South Sudan • 1989: Omar al-Bashir comes to power via coup d'état supported by Islamic Movement • 1999-2000: Power-struggle between Bashir and leader of Islamic Movement • 2003: Outbreak of Darfur Civil War • 2005: Signing of Comprehensive Peace Agreement • 2011: Independence of South Sudan

Mount Everest analogy

"The internet...allows networked movements to grow dramatically and rapidly, but without prior building of formal or informal organizational and other collective capacities that could prepare them for the inevitable challenges they will face and give them the ability to respond to what comes next." (Tufekci, xiii) For example, how to shift tactics beyond mass demonstrations, how to effectively negotiate with the incumbent regime, how to ensure unity and collective decision- making in absence of a hierarchical organizational structures.

Political Polarization in Contemporary America Why is polarization especially disconcerting?

**partisanship --> policy preferences, not vice versa, which makes compromise especially difficult **rise of mega-identities—partisans sorting along political lines but also racial, religious, educational, and geographic ones -lack of cross-cutting cleavages further narrows room for compromise and reduces social contact **media echo-chambers --> alternative realities

Darfur as a Textbook Case of Weak State Theory of Civil War

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Is Non-Violence a More Effective Weapon for Political Change?

-Constructed the Nonviolent and Violent Conflict Outcomes (NAVCO) project—in which each campaign had a major disruptive political goal (such as regime change) -Identified 323 campaigns -Evaluated whether successful in contributing to and achieving its goal within 2 years from end of its campaign -For example, Darfur civil war 2003-2006 (when Darfur Peace Agreement was signed) and Sudan Uprising 2018-2019

F&L article is influential but what is missing?

-largely neglects external factors (such as conflict spillover or military support from external actors) *state capacity varies significantly within countries -GDP per capita is a crude measure of state capacity -little attention to historical factors and legacies *state capacity varies significantly within countries -focuses on ethnic fractionalization (i.e., number of divisions within a state) but not the distribution of power and wealth across societal groups *power and wealth concentrated in Nile River Valley at expense of periphery -overlooks the informal institutions that natural states use to keep the peace

How does non-violence work to disrupt politics and achieve change?

-tends to build much larger and more diverse coalitions (as barriers to participation are much lower) than rebel groups ◦ consider for example how few women participated in the Darfur rebellions vs Sudan Uprising -large coalitions increase the costs of repression—security forces have to kill or arrest a lot more people to stop the movement— but of course people are unarmed which lowers the costs of repression... -however, killing unarmed civilians vs armed ones backfires, further eroding legitimacy of regime and leading to defections, including from security forces, which is especially likely to tip balance in favor of opposition ◦ In contrast armed rebellions may galvanize society and lead them to rally in support of regime (even if they are not particularly sympathetic to the incumbent regime) against groups painted as "terrorists" ◦ This rally-around-the-ruler effect is especially strong if external actors intervene to support rebels -organizations and structures built for non-violent resistance more readily repurposed for trying to make the democratic bargain stick ◦ Whereas violence begets more violence—and hard to put violence genie back in the bottle once unleashed

Dominant Coalition

1.) Peace hinges on these VS credibly committing not to fight with each other. The key bargain is I will refrain from using my control of violence to expropriate your wealth if you do the same. 2.) Cementing this bargain is the understanding that access to the DC is exclusive. And those in the DC dominate the economy—control right to land, trade, taxation. Thus, let's not fight and destroy our wealth but let's cooperate to exploit everyone else! 3.) VS is only as powerful as network of supporters it can mobilize. Critical to keep network intact—by offering security, patronage and leveraging social ties

What is an ethnic group?

A type of social identity—distinguishing characteristics of individuals that can form the basis of inter-personal association Distinct from other identities, ethnicity is based on common culture (e.g., language and custom) and real or perceived common descent That is members recognize a common genealogy or ancestry In short ethnic groups represent extended (in some cases very extended) kinship groups As based on common descent, ethnic differences are often ascriptive (that is ascribed at birth; inherited)

What did agricultural revolution change?

Agricultural-based societies settled down, led to increase in population, warfare and hierarchy ¡ Surplus becomes captured by men --> male-male alliances Patrilocality—families lived near man's relatives, weakening women's social support and allies **Need to maintain defense may have contributed to patrilocality—don't want to lose too many males Sedentary farming led to baby boom—both by increasing women's fertility, increasing available calories, and increasing demands for large families--> requiring women to invest more in reproduction ***Also may have contributed to polygyny and increasing number of women from outside village

Agricultural Revolution, State Formation and Patriarchy

Among hunter-gatherers more egalitarianism Why? Men and women both contributed productive resources to household --> Increasing women's bargaining power Women had more exit options due to greater mobility and/or proximity to family --> increasing women's bargaining power Women in hunter-gatherer families were less likely to live far from their mothers and families, giving them a support network --> increasing women's bargaining power Women had fewer children (due perhaps to the higher energy requirements from a mobile lifestyle, lower BMI, irregular menstrual cycles and longer interbirth intervals) --> reduced opportunity costs --> increasing women's bargaining power

Key Dynamics of Sudan Uprising

Bashir arrested by military on April 11, 2019, ruling party dissolved and leading members arrested; Transitional Military Council takes over Protesters sustain demonstrations calling for civilian government On June 3, 2019 security forces massacre protesters at sit-in site in Khartoum In August 2019, Constitutional Declaration signed leading to formation of Sovereignty Council between military and civilians until elections are held in 2022 A comprehensive peace agreement was signed on 31 August 2020 between the Sudanese authorities and several rebel factions to end armed hostilities, including in Darfur. Various piecemeal peace agreements were signed between 2006 and 2020

Bashir Coup-proofed His Regime, But at Cost of Civil War and Genocide

But Bashir was happy to let the periphery burn as long as he kept dominant coalition happy and averted revolution In December 2018 the revolution came to Central Sudan triggered by rise in food prices and shortages Sudan had two previous mass uprisings that overthrew military governments in 1964 and 1985

What dimension of causal chain do dictators try to break? How?

Censorship is the suppression of speech, public communication, or other information Dictators still try to suppress; for example Facebook, Twitter and other foreign social media are banned in China Nonetheless China is largest social media market in world thanks to Weibo, WeChat and other Chinese platforms Suppression is double-edged sword It denies governments valuable information about society and its grievances "In the networked public sphere, the goal of the powerful often is not to convince people of the truth of a particular narrative or to block a particular piece of information from getting out (that is increasingly di4cult), but to produce resignation, cynicism, and a sense of disempowerment among the people." -Zeynep Tufekci, Twitter and Tear Gas, p. 228.

Athenian Democracy (6th century BCE)

Citizens meet in Assemblies to debate and vote on policies Majority rule prevailed Assemblies created laws, enforced them and acted as judges Only men could participate; women and enslaved people were excluded Aristotle: Again, the male is by nature superior, and the female inferior

How Ethnic Attributes Facilitate Cooperation Between Co-ethnics

Common descent --> Dense social ties ¨ Ethnic ties are blood lines ¨ Dense social networks (family members have overlapping social connections) Dense network ties mean: ¨ Coethnics see each other a lot more (periodicity) ¨ Easier to track someone down from your ethnic group (reachability) Periodicity and reachability increase enforcement of cooperation Shared culture --> Common language ¨ I can communicate with my co-ethnic but not someone from another ethnic group ¨ Co-ethnics can function together more efficiently (efficacy) Shared culture + Conscious of and value group membership --> Shared norms and social sanctioning ¨ Kikuyu always help each other out; to not help out a fellow Kikuyu is to betray the tribe ¨ Co-ethnics more likely to punish each other for failing to cooperate (reciprocity)

What is difference between coup d'état and civil war?

Coup d'état: French for "stroke of state" or "blow against the state" Dissidents use partial control of state to displace rivals from control of remainder of government It is a threat from inside the government; dissidents use soldiers, weapons, materiel and logistics to overthrow ruler from within Very difficult to execute because of strong monitoring capabilities of state Civil war: large-scale political violence between government and group of citizens organized in rebellion Organized rebellion is based in society—not within state Dissidents face challenge of building own private military force to challenge state rather than leveraging state itself; costs of mobilization are much higher Distance from state gives them some breathing room to organize and train but also makes it more difficult to overthrow ruler

How do you assess the effectiveness of Darfur armed rebellion versus Sudan Uprising?

DARFUR CIVIL WAR: Fighting against regional political and economic marginalization, for the overthrow of Bashir regime, and for inclusive and democratic governance Ongoing since 2003 At least 300,000 killed Up to 3 million displaced Outcome: various under implemented peace agreements SUDAN UPRISING: Revolt against poor economic conditions, corruption and to oust Bashir and National Congress from power and enable democratic transition 9-month period between Dec 2018- August 2019 250+ people killed Thousands arrested Outcome: Bashir removed from power, ruling party dismantled, new constitution promising more democratic institutions and inclusiveness...but many challenges remain

Colonialism, Weak States and Civil War

Decolonization from the 1940s through the 1970s gave birth to a large number of financially, bureaucratically, and militarily weak states. These states have been at risk for civil violence for the whole period, almost entirely in the form of insurgency, or rural guerrilla warfare. -Fearon and Laitin 2003

How Can We Test The Social Sanctioning Mechanism versus Other-Regarding Preferences?

Dictator Game

Habyarimana et al.: A Neat Test of Social Norms and Sanctioning Mechanism

Dictator Game: experimental game in which "the offerer" (Dictator) allocates two coins to two "receivers" Used to test how selfish people are: Do they keep all money for themselves or give some away? Game designed so Dictator has to give at least one coin away Do proposers favor co-ethnics over others (i.e., give them more of their money)?

How has digital technology fueled this unprecedented historical moment? But what are its limitations?

Discussion 1.) Tufekci opens the book with the Mount Everest analogy. Discuss the analogy and the implications for political change. 2.) Why is digital technology so effective at facilitating mobilization? What are the mechanisms? 3.) What are its limitations?

Has Social Media Made Mobilization Too Efficient?

During Civil Rights Movement, mobilization required intensive face-to-face planning, organization and coordination behind-the-scenes—facilitated by groups such as the Southern Christian Leadership Conference and Student Nonviolent Coordinating Committee (SNCC) This enabled what Tufekci would call tactical resiliency or breadth—not just demonstrations, such as March on Washington, but also sit-ins, boycotts, Freedom Rides (breaking laws against segregation in inter-state transportation), and voter registration that increases leverage, power and ultimately change

Types of Social Identites

Dynamic: may be chosen or born into, visible or invisible, stable or shifting Multiple: everyone has multiple social identities Sociological: society decides which identities are flagged and which differences matter Salient: certain social identities feel more prominent in certain situations and contexts

State, Ethnic Diversity and Public Goods

Ethnic diversity --> low public goods?? Andreas Wimmer argues this argument suffers from a lurking variable problem. He argues both ethnic diversity and low public goods are a function of historically weak states

Competing Incentives

Ethnic exclusion removes coup threat, but leads to civil war; Ethnic inclusion prevents civil war, but increases coup risk.

Ethnicity as Social Insurance What is needed to sustain this support network? How does ethnicity help overcome this collective action problem?

Ethnic identities are sticky and observable ◦ Hard to change identities and easy to identify Limits free-riders ◦ Hard to opt in to get help when times for an individual are bad Limits exit ◦ Hard to opt out and shirk on obligations to group

One prominent hypothesis points to role of agricultural revolution

Farming technologies deepened gender inequality and gendered beliefs and norms Descendants of societies that traditionally practiced plough agriculture today have less equal gender norms, measured using reported gender-role attitudes and female participation in the workplace, politics, and entrepreneurial activities To test for the importance of cultural persistence, they examine the children of immigrants living in Europe and the United States They find that even among these individuals, all born and raised in the same country, those with a heritage of traditional plough use exhibit less equal beliefs about gender roles today

Implications of the Robbers Cave Experiment

First, some ethical considerations. At time (1954) there was no institutional review board oversight. Today there are much more stringent safeguards, especially to protect vulnerable populations like children. There needs to be informed consent from parents that their children will be involved in research study (it was advertised just as camp). Participants have right to exit/leave at any time. Careful consideration must be given to potential harm to participants and how to mitigate that.

How has digital technology fueled this unprecedented historical moment?

From information to action Tufekci neatly describes the causal chain of societal action: information dissemination --> to the generation of individual will and agency --> individual will and agency to protests --> protests to social movement action.

Implications of the Robbers Cave Experiment: Spontaneous Group Formation

Humans are social animals and have incredible capabilities to form strong social groups, even among non-kin This represents a powerful bases for cooperation—and a key source of survival Remember: our brains are hard-wired for group living. The evolved cognitive faculties and physiological responses that enable us to sustain cooperation in a hostile environment continue to shape our social interactions.

"10 Stages of Genocide"

I. Classification II. Symbolization III. Discrimination IV. Dehumanization V. Organization VI. Polarization VII. Preparation VIII. Persecution IX. Extermination X. Denial

non-rival

If somebody benefits from a good, it doesn't reduce the amount available for others

IMPACT OF COVID-19

In the summer of 2020, 77 percent of Americans said that the country had grown more divided since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic • 2.8 standard deviations higher than the mean response in the thirteen other countries studied • 1.6 standard deviations above Spain, which had the second highest response

Powersharing is Key to Solving Civil War in Weak States. How?

Logic of the Coup-Civil War Trap: Ethnic powersharing is necessary to establish peace and overcome the "strong societies-weak states" problem (Migdal 1988) ...but bringing rivals into the central government lowers their costs of taking power for themselves.

Points to role of materialist and constructivist factors in comparative politics

Materialist: emphasizes the causal importance of material and economic capabilities ***E.g., differences in upper-body strength affecting control of plough that in turn increases control of household's resources Constructivist: ideas are formed based on the collective views developed and maintained within a society or social group that may or may not map onto materialist foundations ***E.g., despite technological change that reduces physical barriers to operating farm equipment, societal norms that suggest it is inappropriate for women to operate power tools

Categories of state capacity

Military capacity --> state's ability to deter or repel challenges to its authority with force -aligns with Weberian idea of state having monopoly of violence Bureaucratic/administrative capacity --> ability to penetrate society and effectively provide services Max Weber also paid a lot of attention to this, emphasizing the importance of a professional, meritocratic state bureaucracy that adhered to rational-legal rules)

"Why Do People Kill People?"

Modern Phenomenon When ethnicity trumps class Sense of Exploitation

Ethnic group size

Most ethnic groups are quite small (Han more exception than rule) For example, based on definition used above, average country has 5 ethnic groups Ethnicity serves a number of different purposes but one important one is a coordination device—in which members can realize mutual gains, but only by making mutually consistent decisions Ethnicity can shape expectations of coordinated behavior and cooperation. How?

What are solutions to ethnic divisions?

Nation-building—change the boundaries of the social group and social norms of expectations of reciprocity I have an obligation to other members of the nation Nationality becomes the new coordination device Market forces—gains from trade bring people from different backgrounds together and who may specialize in different economic activities that can facilitate inter-ethnic trust In India medieval port towns Muslims and Hindus developed strong economic ties, leading to lower levels of religious riots despite higher levels of diversity Why? Less social inequality, higher levels of trust, and development of inter-religious organizations to hold authorities accountable. Urbanization—urban areas draw in people from different backgrounds and can serve as potential mixing bowls especially with rising levels of education, social networks change, inter-ethnic marriage, and occupational opportunities Note, however, that urbanization can also intensify ethnic competition and divisions if... Cities are segregated --> High-levels of inequality --> Uneven educational and employment opportunities The impersonal state—state acts as a third-party enforcer and treats all citizens equal before the law -Effective provision of public goods -Bureaucracy based on merit and professionalism -State as safety net—replacing the social insurance of ethnic or kinship groups

Why, if social constructs are simply made up (they exist only because humans agree they exist), are they so hard to change?

Of course, if they underwrite existing power and social structures, change can lead to significant shifts in power and wealth Constructs become entrenched and reinforced through societal coordination on these ideas—and upheld by all kinds of institutions (rules and practices)—mass, simultaneous shifts in beliefs and coordination on a new set of ideas is difficult

Take Away

Offerers are more likely to favor their co-ethnics than others but only when visible. Implication? Expectations of reciprocity, enforced by concerns about being seen to violate a social norm, sustain cooperation.

Implications of Ethnicity, Shared Norms and Cooperation

One of the fundamental problems that humans face is social cooperation. As much as we are hard-wired for group living, we also are self-interested utility maximizers constantly facing PD-type games. Hobbes emphasized the importance of the Leviathan as the solution to the cooperation problem—in the form of an all-powerful third-party enforcer to whom we relinquish some of our freedom in exchange for security. Ethnicity represents an alternative type of solution—potentially less hierarchical and more decentralized. In which individuals born into social groups revolving around shared cultural and ancestral ties internalize obligations and responsibilities to other members of the groups—and police the degree to which other members fulfill their obligations and responsibilities. As members know other members have internalized such norms, the identity becomes a powerful coordination device and key source of cooperation even in the absence of some third-party enforcer. But ultimately like the Hobbesian solution, ethnicity doesn't eliminate conflict but merely displaces it. Strong intra-ethnic institutions can increase the costs and barriers to inter-ethnic cooperation

Patriarchy as a Cornerstone of Comparative Political Development...but Why?

Patriarchy is a social system in which men not only dominate in political power but also socially (e.g., afforded privileges denied to women), economically (e.g., control of property and accumulation of capital) and even in morally (e.g., dominate religious institutions) One prominent hypothesis points to role of agricultural revolution

Why is non-violent resistance proving less effective?

Perhaps due to what Tufekci calls "tactical freeze"— and government learning to wait out the demonstrations

Social Divisions and Public Goods

Public goods tend to be under-supplied because of their inherent characteristics (why pay for them when you can get them for free) Need public authority to exercise its power to ensure it is provided But public authority needs resources to supply public goods—and to follow through in implementation Societal divisions can frustrate this. How? Societal divisions can frustrate this 1.) Affects expectations that rival groups will pay in (How do we monitor whether others are paying? Why would they pay to benefit nongroup members?) 2.) Related, how do we know the authority will not renege on implementation—and redirect to their group?

Maintaining Patriarchy: Resources, Law and Culture But just as power and wealth can be passed down, so can culture— customs, norms, traditions and social behaviors found in society

Rise of patriarchy and gender inequality leads to customs and norms about traditional gender roles These gender roles are constructed, or imagined, by humans—that can then serve as constraints on behavior and, in this case, to reinforce male dominance ***For example, sexual division of labor entrenched by the plough developed the belief that the "natural" place for women is within the home Socialization of norms of masculinity and femininity, such as warriors and princesses, help to reproduce social and political hierarchies Socialization --> internalization of beliefs and attitudes --> constraining of behavior, such as mobilization for gender equality

The Sheikh vs. the Field Marshall

Sheikh Hassan al-Turabi—Secretary General of the National Islamic Front President Omar al-Bashir—Installed as president in 1989 by NIF-backed coup

Habyarimana et al.: An Elegant Test of Social Norms and Sanctioning Mechanism

Social Norms and Sanctioning: Increase trust—generate expectations of reciprocity—because individuals know if one is found to be cheating by the group, she or he would be sanctioned (e.g., shunned, expelled) by other members of the group

The Rise of Social Movements

Social movements—loosely organized but sustained campaign in support of a social or political goal that aims to change or maintain society's structure or values Modern phenomena that scholars attribute to increases in education, mobility of labor, urbanization, industrialization, democratic institutions...and technological change

Social Divisions and Public Goods

Societal divisions can frustrate this...reducing provision of public goods...and making everyone worse off

Agricultural Revolution, State Formation and Patriarchy

Strikingly bonobos are one of few primates that are matriarchal What accounts for this? Older female bonobos control food but share it with other members Female-female alliances (non-kin*) protect female bonobos from predatory males—who are collectively punished by female bonobos working together *Interestingly, female bonobos are the dispersing sex and must leave their birthplaces before puberty and find another social set to join

Key Dynamics of Sudan Uprising

Sustained civil disobedience lasting 8 months Led by young people, professionals and women Show of solidarity with Darfurians- "We are all Darfurians"—who were scapegoated as undertaking acts of sabotage and terrorism during uprising

What Is Genocide?

The UN Recognizes Genocide as (a) Killing of members of the group; (b) causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group; (c) deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction, in whole or part; (d) imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group; (e) forcibly transferring children of the group to another group 2 Article II of the Genocide Convention considers genocide actions committed with the intent to exterminate, "in whole or part, a national, ethnical, racial, or religious group"

Race in US 2020 Census

The racial categories included in the census questionnaire generally reflect a social definition of race recognized in this country and not an attempt to define race biologically, anthropologically, or genetically. In addition, it is recognized that the categories of the race item include racial and national origin or sociocultural groups. People may choose to report more than one race to indicate their racial mixture, such as "American Indian" and "White." People who identify their origin as Hispanic, Latino, or Spanish may be of any race.

But how do we make the Eagles and Rattlers friends again?

They set up peace talks and called for disarmament—no more cussing and assaulting other group. This failed. They shared meals. But this ended up in food fights. They did shared experiences—lighting firecrackers but this nearly ended disastrously. They even brought in a minister to sermonize on brotherly love! But that merely reinforced in-group solidarity and out-group demonization. Sherif told all kids in both groups that someone from the outside was sabotaging the camps water supply and they had to fix the water problem and defend the camp. This created a super ordinate goal they could all work toward but also a common enemy. This worked.

Jacinda Arden

Third female Prime Minister of New Zealand Praised for effective response to COVID -19 Led the charge in banning semiautomatic weapons and assault rifles after Christchurch Mosque shootings in March 2019 that killed 51 people Only second elected head of government to give birth while in office New Zealand :first place to grant women's suffrage

What do they find? What does it tell us?

When offerer is anonymous, s/he keeps one coin and distributes the other to another player about 73% of time --> But no evidence that favors co-ethnics over other receivers When offerer is visible, similar results in terms of allocation --> But offerers are significantly more likely to give more to their coethnics (by 29% when perceive the receiver is their co-ethnic)--> Moreover, receivers expect that offerers will favor them if coethnics

Race in US 2020 Census

White - A person having origins in any of the original peoples of Europe, the Middle East, or North Africa. Black or African American - A person having origins in any of the Black racial groups of Africa. American Indian or Alaska Native - A person having origins in any of the original peoples of North and South America (including Central America) and who maintains tribal affiliation or community attachment. Asian - A person having origins in any of the original peoples of the Far East, Southeast Asia, or the Indian subcontinent including, for example, Cambodia, China, India, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Pakistan, the Philippine Islands, Thailand, and Vietnam. Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander - A person having origins in any of the original peoples of Hawaii, Guam, Samoa, or other Pacific Islands.

Social Divisions and Public Goods: "Drained-Pool Politics" Fairgrounds Park Pool in Saint Louis

everyone is worse off

non-excludibility

once provided you can't stop anyone from benefiting from that good **free rider problem: individuals have an incentive to use good without contributing towards cost

Darfur 1991: What Worked?

see diagram on slide -- DC working

What dimension of causal chain do dictators try to break?

the causal chain of societal action (Tufekci 2017) information dissemination --> to the generation of individual will and agency --> individual will and agency to protests --> protests to social movement action. answer: the generation of individual will and agency

political sectarianism

the tendency to adopt a moralized identification with one political group and against another "Whereas the foundational metaphor for tribalism is kinship, the foundational metaphor for political sectarianism is religion, which evokes analogies focusing less on genetic relatedness than on strong faith in the moral correctness and superiority of one's sect." p. 533

WHERE DO YOU SEE AFFECTIVE POLARIZATION IN YOUR LIFE?

• 1960: 4-5% of partisans say they would feel "displeased" if their child married someone belonging to the opposite political party • 2008: 27% of Republicans and 20% percent of Democrats say they would be "somewhat" or "very" upset if their child married outside their political party • 2010: 49% of Republicans and 33% of Democrats oppose interparty marriage *Similar measures used to predict ethnic conflict/division

OMAGH, NORTHERN IRELAND

• 2007: Stanford's Center for Deliberative Democracy holds a Deliberative Poll in the Omagh District Council-area of Northern Ireland to gather citizens' input on the future of local schools

Social identity

• A type of social identity—distinguishing characteristics of individuals that can form the basis of inter-personal association • We all have multiple identities that can form the bases of social cooperation or divisions • We have talked about gender; talk we will talk about ethnicity

Consequences

• Changing inter-personal behavior (e.g., less interpartisan marriage and friendships) --> reinforcing societal divisions • Skewing cognition! • Finkel et al report on an experiment showing an identical clip of protestors clashing with police--> liberals rated the protesters as more violent when they believed it was an anti-abortion protest (a conservative cause) rather than a gay-rights protest (a liberal cause), whereas conservatives exhibited the opposite pattern

How Governments Strike Back

• Chinese censorship is especially sophisticated • Government does allow criticism on social media, even scathing criticism but tends to censor when posts tending were concentrated within a single geographical area and called for collective action. • Employ 50-cent Army • During critical events and anniversaries, the 50-cent army is mobilized to flood social media with posts to create alternative focal points

DELIBERATIVE DEMOCRACY FORUMS

• Contact • Reduced prejudice • Warmer feelings • Discussion rooted in fact • Model for cooperation • Visible changes

The Information Revolution Represents a Powerful Threat to Dominant Coalitions

• Dominant coalitions have struggled to keep societal de facto power at bay with the advent of information revolution and social media • Especially when it comes to eliminating information dissemination that is so critical to social movements

CONSEQUENCES OF POLARIZATION

• Empowering foreign disinformation • Polarization creates lack of social trust, increased willingness to believe lies about opponents, share on social media --> vicious cycle • Threatening democratic institutions • Democratic hypocrisy • Increased tolerance for political violence •Endangering U.S. global leadership • Gridlock makes it hard for government to function • Decreased credibility of democracy

Weak state theory of civil war

• Fearon and Laitin argue that most post-World War II civil wars involve opposition using the technology of insurgency—small, lightly armed bands practicing guerrilla warfare from rural base areas (a la Mao and CCP)—to challenge the central government • "Insurgents are better able to survive and prosper if the government and military they oppose are relatively weak-badly financed, organizationally inept, corrupt, politically divided, and poorly informed about goings-on at the local level" (Fearon and Laitin 2003, 80) • Even worse, weak governments inflamed armed rebellion through indiscriminate violence • Topographical factors like mountainous terrain favor insurgents

RESULTS

• Increase in support for policies that would involve greater religious mixing in schools • Protestant and Catholic participants reported seeing each other as more trustworthy

What dimension of causal chain to dictators try to break? How?

• Information manipulation in information age • Distracting society with bizarre stories and information; • Inundating society with information, including misinformation; • Attacking the legitimacy and credibility of information sources.

First, what is civil war?

• Large-scale armed conflict between the government and its citizens organized in armed rebellion • State (or pro-state actors) vs armed rebel movements (domestic rebel organizations using force to extract policy concessions from the government) • Leads to at least 1,000 battlefield deaths during course of war • Effective resistance from rebels

Key People and Groups

• Nile River Valley Arabs: ethnic groups located along the Nile River valley in central Sudan and who have historically dominated the state • Fur: non-Arab/African ethnic group in Darfur and historically organized as a kingdom • Zaghawa: non-Arab/African ethnic group split between Chad and Sudan • Sudan Liberation Army (SLA): rebel movement that emerged in Jebel Marra, Darfur in 2002 and attacked El Fasher in April 2003 • Janjaweed: pro-government militias recruited from many Arabpastoralist groups in Darfur that were used in counter-insurgency • Omar al-Bashir: president of Sudan since 1989; at first more of a figurehead; from Nile River Valley; indicted by International Criminal Court for genocide and war crimes in 2009 • Idriss Deby: president of Chad since 1990; supported by Bashir regime; from the Zaghawa • Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA): South Sudan-based rebel movement who fought in the Second Civil War and dominated new state of South Sudan

Consequences: A Threat to Democracy

• Polarization changes the democratic game from an iterated one to a zero-sum game • A win for the other side is a devastating blow for our side • How do we know this evil, undemocratic other group will uphold democracy in the future? • Partisans in a polarized context become more willing to accept violations of democratic principles, rules and procedures • It is not that they don't realize these illiberal practices are happening. • Instead they are willing to sacrifice fair democratic competition for the sake of preventing the other side from coming to power.

Polarization and Democratic Backsliding

• Polarization thus presents aspiring authoritarians with a structural opportunity: They can undermine democracy and get away with it. (Svolik 2019)

Potential Concerns about the Non-Violent Resistance is Better Argument

• Some caution is warranted as selection effects likely are at work --> non-violent resistance is more likely to emerge in places and times when it is more likely to succeed (e.g., when government is weak and in capital—close to the center of power where violent resistance is much more difficult) • In contrast, greater space for violent resistance much farther from the capital city—its emergence may or may not be linked to strengthen of government While selection effects likely are at work, human agency can change the structural conditions shaping these processes Perhaps most important can peripheral groups project power in the center through new social movements, coalitions or parties that represent a cross-section of society—as evidenced by Sudan Uprising

COMPARED TO OTHER WESTERN DEMOCRACIES

• Stanford study compares feeling thermometer data in nine Western democracies between 1975 and 2017 • Of the nine countries, only four demonstrated increasing sectarianism. Sectarianism increased most rapidly in the United States • On average, the eight other Western democracies saw a small decline in outparty hate over the period of study, while the United States saw a slight increase in hate • By 2017, out-party hate was greater in the United States than in any other country studied

BREAKOUT DISCUSSION: ELECTORAL REFORM

• What is proportional representation? How is it different from single member districts? • How does ranked choice voting work? How does it differ from the predominant system in the United States? • What problems do these reforms solve? Are there any potential downsides?

Key Ingredients of Political Sectarianism

• othering—the tendency to view opposing partisans as essentially different or alien to oneself; • aversion—the tendency to dislike and distrust opposing partisans; and • moralization—the tendency to view opposing partisans as iniquitous "when all three converge, political losses can feel like existential threats that must be averted— whatever the cost" (p. 533)

Motivations

○ Economic Instability □ Rakhine one of the poorest states in Myanmar ○ Ethnic Tensions □ Military Seizure of Rohingya Land (Redistributed to Buddhists)

Motivations

○ Religion and "extremism" □ Sinicization ○ Political Control □ Greater Influence in Central Asia ○ XUAR's natural and economic resources □ Belt and Road Initiative

Similarities & Differences

○ Religious Muslim minority □ Very Small Ethnic Minorities (In proportion to the national population) ○ Institutionalization/ Industrialization in China ○ Economic Incentive in China ○ Estimated Death toll □ Myanmar: 25,000 □ Uighur: 130,000 every three months

The Rohingya in Myanmar What's Happening in Rakhine State?

○ The Tatmadaw, or Burmese military, has been killing members of the Rohingya, a majority-Muslim ethnic minority that lives in Rakhine State, near the border between Myanmar and Bangladesh. ○ Over half a million Rohingya have fled into Bangladesh □ Government has been receptive to displaced people ○ Over 350 Rohingya villages have been completely or partially destroyed □ Burning

What Is Happening in Xinjiang?

○ Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR) □ Largest region □ Produces ⅕ of world's cotton ○ Xinjiang Vocational Education and Training Centers by the Government of China □ Approximately 1 million interned □ 85 camps ○ Internment, forced sterilization, and separation of Uighur children □ Forced to pledge loyalty to CCP □ Conditions for the interned include: crowded cells, lack of toilets, beatings, rape, torture ○ Population growth rates have fallen dramatically in XinJiang, in Kashgar and Hotan they have fallen by 84% between 2015 and 2018 The psychological impact of extremist religious thought on people must never be underestimated," 9 Xi Jinping (April 30, 2014)