Forecasting

what are market related factors that affect the rate of diffusion

Type of innovation adoption decision (e.g., does it involve switching from familiar way of doing things?) Communication channels used Nature of "links" among market participants Nature and effect of promotional efforts

What are the assumptions for the basic bass model

Diffusion process is binary (consumer either adopts, or waits to adopt). Constant maximum potential number of buyers Eventually, all will adopt the product. No repeat purchase, or replacement purchase. The impact of word-of-mouth is independent of adoption time. Innovation is independent of substitutes. The marketing strategies supporting an innovation are not explicitly included. Uniform influence or complete mixing. That is, everyone in the population knows everyone else, or is at least able to communicate with, or observe everyone else.

what are product related factors that affect the rate of diffusion

High relative advantage over existing products High degree of compatibility with existing approaches Low complexity Can be tried on a limited basis Benefits are observable

How is the assessor pre-test market model related to forecasting

It is used to forecast market share for new products in established categories

How would you estimate parameters using analogous products

Select analogous products based on the similarity in environmental context, market structure, buyer behavior, marketing-mix strategies of the firm, and innovation characteristics.

What are different methods for forecasting new product sales

chain ratio method judgemental methods scenario analysis diffusion model pre-test market methods test-market methods

Which forecasting methods would you use for early states of development

chain ratio method judgmental methods scenario analysis diffusion model

What are main ways to estimate the parameters (p and q) of the bass model

estimate using data from few sales periods estimate using analogous products

What are forecasting models that we consider for new products

forecasting using the estimated market share forecasting the pattern of new product adoptions (bass) forecasting market share for new products in established categories (assessor pre-test market)

Why is it important to know when customers will adopt a new product

it helps in planning major investments with respect to the product

What do we use assessor pre-test market model

new products established markets repeat-purchase products

Which forecasting methods would you use for later stages of development

pre-test market methods test-market methods

How would you estimate parameters from the first few sale periods

regression specialized nonlinear estimation

What are extensions to the basic bass model

varying market potential incorporating marketing variables incorporating repeat purchases multi-stage diffusion process incorporating network structure

What does the bass diffusion model answer

when will customers adopt a new product or technology?

What is essential in order to use the bass model

you need to have an estimate of the parameters p and q