GOVT CH 9
Planning Campaigns
-During primaries, presidential candidates engage in retail politics .•Meet voters directly at individual level During the general, strategies shift to wholesale campaigning. •Meet voters indirectly through campaign ads, events, and media coverage
The 2018 midterms
-Included campaigns for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, as well as 35 Senate elections. -Democrats gained a House majority by capturing Republican suburban districts and capitalizing on Republican open seats. -In Senate elections, Democrats captured two seats (NV and AZ) but lost other races, allowing Republicans to retain their Senate majority. -2018 results showed a strong gender gap, with higher rates of Democratic voting among women
Campaign Fundamentals
-Many factors affecting elections are out of candidate's control. -Two have important implications on electoral outcome. •Economic conditions •Party ID
Getting the Word Out
-Most campaigns are conducted indirectly through media, news coverage of events, and, most importantly, paid advertising. -Ads have evolved considerably over time, but several features remain common, including (1) arresting images and (2) bold text. Candidates know they must fight for voters' attention.
Functions of elections
-Selecting Representatives The most visible function of American national elections is the selection of officeholders: members of the House and Senate and the president and vice president. Candidates can an incumbent, a politician running for reelection, or a challenger.
How Do People Vote?
-Some people are issue voters. -Most people use voting cues •One's partisanship (the single best predictor of one's vote) •Incumbency •Receiving help from a lawmaker •Candidate's personal traits (gender, race, age, religious beliefs) •Retrospective evaluations -Cues work in concert with political information
Do Campaign Ads Work?
-Studies of campaign advertising find that, most of the time, campaign ads fail to capture voters' attention enough to focus on the content and consider the candidate's message. -In 2016, for example, Republican Jeb Bush spent millions of dollars on campaign ads but they did little to improve his vote share. -Research has found that ads can boost voters' interest in the campaign and stimulate a desire to learn more about candidates. -They can also serve to effectively highlight differences between candidate
Counting Presidential Votes
-The citizens cast votes, known as the popular vote. Number of electors for each state equals the state's number of House members (varying by population) plus the state's number of senators (two per state). Together, they make up the electoral college who formally select the president
Counting Presidential Votes
-The winner of the presidential election is determined by the Electoral College. Voters actually vote for the candidate's pledged supporters (electors), who then vote for the president. -The number of electors each state has equals that state's number of House and Senate members. -Because most electors are determined through a winner-take-all system, candidates tend to focus on large states (with lots of electors) and swing states, at the expense of smaller and less competitive states. To win, a candidate needs only a majority of electoral votes and does not need to win the popular vote.
The path to 2018: the 2016 elections
-Trump ran a unique campaign, with limited advertising, a weak ground game, and willingness to deviate from the standard Republican platform. -Democrats in 2016 selected Hillary Clinton—the choice was history as Clinton was the first woman to lead a major-party presidential ticket in America. -The overriding factor driving the 2016 results was turnout, especially the failure of the Democrats' get-out-the-vote drive compared to the more modest Republican effort. -Clinton won more votes overall, but Trump prevailed in the electoral colleg
success in the early contests
-While success in the early contests is not a sure predictor of receiving the nomination, a poor showing in the early contests is likely to lead to an early exit. Because of the importance of these early contests, many states band together to form regional primaries. They also try to frontload, or move their primaries and caucuses earlier in the year to exert more influence on the outcome. At the Democratic National Convention, some officials serve as superdelegates, and they are free to serve any candidate at the nomination.
What Influences Turnout?
-Why do people bother to vote at all, given that any individual vote is not likely to decide an election? (paradox of voting) -Turnout higher among whites, older citizens, and more educated citizens. -Turnout lower among Americans who are angry with the government or think government does not affect them. -Turnout also impacted by structural design (e.g., photo ID laws, voting by mail policies, etc.)
split ticket
A ballot on which a voter selects candidates from more than one political party.
straight ticket
A ballot on which a voter selects candidates from only one political party.
caucus
A local meeting in which party members select a party's nominee for the general election.
incumbent
A politician running for reelection to the office he or she currently holds. (page 288)
proportional allocation
All Democratic primaries use proportional allocation of delegates reflecting each candidate's vote share, while some Republican primaries are proportional allocation and others are winner-take-all.
Constituencies: who chooses representatives?
American elections are elected in single-member districts, in which only the winner of the most votes takes office. Senators represent the entirety of one state; House members represent specific districts within the state.
Campaign finance
Among other responsibilities, the Federal Election Commission is tasked with regulating how much money political campaigns spend and how they can spend it. While the current set of rules was established by the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (BCRA), Supreme Court decisions such as Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission have modified these rules.
The Path to 2016: The 2012 and 2014 Elections
At first glance, the 2012 and 2014 elections were mirror-image contests: Democrat Barack Obama won reelection in 2012 and his party gained seats in both houses of Congress, but in 2014, Republicans regained control of the Senate and enlarged their House majority
The 2016 Elections: the Nomination Process
At the start of the 2016 nomination process, most analysts felt that Donald Trump had little chance of winning the Republican nomination because of his past behavior and unorthodox beliefs. However, the crowded Republican field actually made it easier for him to win by winning a plurality of votes split among so many contenders. Hillary Clinton, however, was assumed to sail toward nomination without difficulty, but instead faced a significant battle with Vermont senator Bernie Sanders, who challenged her from the left.
The Nomination: Primaries and Caucuses
At the state level, the primary and caucus nominees win delegates, who subsequently cast votes in the national convention to determine their party's candidate for the general election.
Campaign advertising: getting the word out
Campaign advertising is one of the principal methods for candidates to reach the electorate. Each year, various groups spend several billion dollars in campaign advertisements -Nearly every group runs campaign ads, and while most candidates' ads are positive, advocacy groups run uniformly negative campaign ads. Most ads rely on short, arresting images that evoke an emotional response by the viewer. Ads can be positive: people exposed to campaign ads generally report higher interest in campaigns, and know more about the candidates. While negative campaigning can backfire on the candidate who runs them, negative ads can be effective in the right context
balance support for issues
Candidates also work hard to publicize their campaign platform, in which they balance support for issues important to their party with issues important to the voters. Often, candidates are constrained in writing their platforms as they try to win support from their party elites, primary voters, and general election voters.
Candidates often
Candidates often contrast their own records or positions with those of opposing candidates or make claims designed to lower citizens' opinions of their opponents. Sometimes these interactions occur during a formal debate.
ballot
Different counties use different forms of ballots, and different rates of undervotes are reported depending on the kind of ballot used.
Congressional districts are single-member districts
Districts are geographically determined. •Senators represent entire states. •House candidates compete within congressional districts. Winning requirements •Plurality voting: getting the most votes •Majority voting: getting over 50 percent of the votes •Runoff elections: top two finishers in a head-to-head race
The general-election campaign
During the actual electoral campaign, candidates utilize a number of strategies to win their election. Depending on the office they are seeking, and the size of the constituency, candidates may contact voters directly through retail politics or indirectly via wholesale politics.
proportional allocation
During the presidential primaries, the practice of determining the number of convention delegates allotted to each candidate based on the percentage of the popular vote cast for each candidate. All Democratic primaries and caucuses use this system, as do some states' Republican primaries and caucuses
The National Convention
Each party hosts its own national convention, where delegates vote for the party's nominee, name the vice presidential candidate, and vote on the party platform. The convention is heavily publicized and gives the party an opportunity to increase its visibility.
Shaping policy
Elections involve a choice between candidates' policy platforms, the set of things they promise to do if elected.
Campaign Finance
FEC: Federal Election Commission is in charge of administering election laws. Hard money: money to help elect or defeat specific candidates •Amounts raised/spent limited Soft money: money used for mobilization and party building •Amounts raised/spent unlimited
Setting the stage
Following each election, party officials determine if a Congressional seat is going to be safe or vulnerable in the next election, and base their strategy on this assessment. In particular, party committees and candidates consider if an incumbent will run for office again, or retire and create an open seat, which nearly always results in a more competitive race than an incumbent election.
The 2016 General Election
For most of the 2016 race, Clinton was in the lead and was widely favored to win while Trump, largely because of his poor performance at the debates and due to allegations of sexual harassment, fell further and further behind. However, late-breaking questions (though never criminal charges) about Clinton's use of a private email server blunted her lead. Trump also benefited from much higher than expected turnout in rural communities, which helped him win in several normally Democratic Midwestern states. Turnout for Clinton was lower than the high levels seen in 2008 and 2012.
Who (usually) wins
Generally, vote decisions for presidential and congressional elections are made independently, particularly in normal elections, as evidenced by weak coattails and the frequency of split ticket voting, as opposed to straight ticket voting.
The "fundamentals"
Many important factors are beyond their control. Political scientists call these factors the fundamentals. In part, the fundamentals include the rules that govern elections, such as photo ID requirements for voting, which in turn shape voter turnout in ways that hurt some candidates (usually Democrats) and help others. Another fundamental is how many people in a candidate's district share his or her party ID.
Presidential elections
Many of the rules in presidential elections are similar to the rules of congressional elections, but there are important nuances.
ground game or "get out the vote"
In addition to building name recognition, candidates try to mobilize their supporters and build a strong ground game or "get out the vote". They are increasingly likely to use social media sites to coordinate with supporters.
Determining Who Wins
Most House and Senate races are determined using plurality voting, meaning that the person who received the most votes wins, while others use majority voting, which requires that to be declared the winner, a candidate has to receive more than 50 percent of the votes. -In majority voting systems, when no candidate receives more than 50 percent of the vote, a runoff election is held between the top two finishers.
The 2014 Congressional Elections
National conditions in 2014 favored the Republican Party and its candidates. President Obama's approval rating had declined steadily since his reelection, enough so that he did not campaign with many Democratic candidates to avoid hurting their election efforts. The Republican advantage translated into modest gains for the party in the House and larger gains in the Senate where Republicans gained nine seats and took control of the chamber
Presidential Elections: The Convention
Presidential (and vice presidential) candidates officially nominated at party conventions. •Delegates from all 50 states attend. •Candidate with a majority of the delegates' support becomes the nominees -Convention also used to establish (1) party platform and (2) promote the party.
How do people vote?
Some people are issue voters; they are interested in politics, they research candidates, and they vote accordingly Most citizens find gathering information on all the candidates costly, so they rely on voting cues as shortcuts to a reasonable vote. Cues include incumbency, partisanship, personal economic experience, and candidates' personal characteristics. Citizens who use cues and are politically well informed are more likely to cast a reasonable vote.
Stages in the Campaign
Targeting specific seats •Open seat: elected position for which there is no incumbent Before the campaign •Keep constituents happy. •Raise money for campaign. •Build and maintain campaign staff/organization.
Consequences of the 2016 election
The 2016 election moved America from divided government to unified Republican control of the presidency and Congress. Even so, it is important to remember that Trump and his fellow Republicans will face the same policy constraints that shaped policy under the Obama administration and previous presidents.
The 2012 Presidential and Congressional elections
The Republican field of challengers was led by Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor. While he faced serious opposition for much of the primary season, he was well positioned to win the Republican nomination throughout. President Obama won his re-nomination with no significant opposition, as is customary for incumbent presidents. Most Americans had largely made up their minds fairly early in the campaign, and few were open to persuasion. Under these conditions, voter mobilization played a crucial role, and Obama's campaign was much better organized to get people to the polls, both for early voting and on Election Day. In the end, Obama defeated Romney by a slight margin in the popular vote and by a somewhat larger margin in the electoral college
Understanding the 2016 and 2018 elections
The essential question in 2018 was whether voters would support the Trump-Republican policy agenda on: •Tax cuts •Reductions in domestic spending and increases in military spending •Loosening of business and environmental regulations •Reestablishment of tariffs •Further restriction on immigration•Selection of conservatives to the federal judiciary -For Democrats, 2018 represented an opportunity to block this agenda, provided they could regain control of at least one chamber of Congress.
coattails
The idea that a popular president can generate additional support for candidates affiliated with his or her party. Coattails are weak or nonexistent in most American elections.
Types of Organizations
The limits on campaign contributions differ by group type. PACs are limited in how much hard money they can give directly to candidates. Soft money is unlimited money that PACs can use to support campaign advertising and the mobilization of voters, as long as it does not explicitly support or oppose a candidate. Political parties are limited in the amount of hard money they can give to candidates, but they are not limited in their "independent expenditures" to support a candidate. Campaign finance reform is difficult because it requires balancing the right to free speech with the idea that the rich should not dominate campaigns and decide outcomes
The effects of money in politics
The majority of the money spent in campaigns is allotted to television ads, which can be extremely expensive. Campaign financing is not a predictor of success: to have a chance at winning, candidates have to raise money, but raising a lot does not guarantee outcomes. There is little evidence that campaign contributions alter legislator behavior, or that contributors "buy votes."
Who votes, and why?
The paradox of voting is: why does anyone vote, given that voting is costly, and the chances of affecting the outcome are so small? The number of people in the turnout is generally around 50 percent of eligible citizens for general elections and about 30 percent for primaries and caucuses. Turnout is lower among younger citizens, nonwhite citizens, and less educated citizens. Many people who vote do so because they feel an obligation of citizenship, while many of those who don't vote are angry with the government and feel that the government's actions will not help them.
Before the campaign
There are many things incumbent politicians can do before the actual campaign to make themselves more secure. Most incumbents maintain a permanent campaign, constantly working to build support by traveling around their district and talking with constituents. -Candidates work to start fund-raising well in advance of an election in order simultaneously to run a good campaign and keep strong competitors at bay. They also work to attract talented people to join their campaign staff.
The Electoral College
Today there are 538 electors in the EC.Number of electors is based on membership in Congress. 435 Representatives + 100 Senators + 3 for Washington, D.C. = 538 To become president you need a majority of 538, or...27
Stages in the Campaign
Two major objectives during the general election •Name recognition •Voter mobilization: "get out the vote" (GOTV). •Candidates/organizations determine tenor of campaign. •Debates often contrast candidates' own records or positions with those of opposing candidates
runoff election
Under a majority voting system, a second election held only if no candidate wins a majority of the votes in the first general election. Only the top two vote-getters in the first election compete in the runoff. (page 290)
Primary election
Which candidates get the party's nomination? •Several types of systems •Open primary •Semi-closed primary •Closed primary
General election
Which of the nominees gets to holds office? •House of Representatives (two-year term) •President (four-year term) •Senate (six-year term
Primaries and caucuses
Winning convention delegates •Proportional Allocation •Winner-take-all •Superdelegates Front-loading
Retrospective evaluation
a voter's judgment of an officeholder's job performance since the last election
Bipartisan Campaign Finance Reform Act (BCRA)
also known as McCain-Feingold Act, outlawed soft money and created a "stand by your ad" disclaimer requirement. Citizens United v. FEC changed campaign finance rules by removing all restrictions on independent efforts funded by corporations and union
two stages of elections
n Congressional races, there are two steps to getting elected. First, the primary of each political party determines which of several candidates will receive the nomination to run in the general election. Different states hold either open primaries, semi-closed primaries, or closed primaries, and state law sets the timing of these elections. In the general election the voters determine who the actual officeholder will be.
Promoting accountability
the election process also creates a way to hold incumbents accountable. When citizens choose between voting for an incumbent or a challenger, they can make a retrospective evaluation. -They consider the incumbent's performance, asking, "Has he [or she] done a good job on the issues I care about?"
Fund-Raising
•Funds help incumbents ensure aggressive campaigns, and deters opposition. -Develop campaign platforms. -Build campaign staff
Normal elections
•High reelection rates of incumbents •Independent evaluations of presidential and congressional candidates •Example: in 2004, Americans were generally satisfied with the job of elected officials and reelected a president as well as over 90 percent of congressional incumbents
Nationalized or wave elections
•Many voters vote against incumbents. •Focus typically on one issue •Example: in 2010, many Americans were concerned about corporate bailouts, health care reform, and the perceived ineffectiveness of legislation meant to stimulate the economy, leading to Republicans taking control of the House
Permanent campaign
•Time when most sitting House members, senators, and presidents work throughout the lection cycle to secure their reelection
