MGMT 2

What are the steps in NGT?

1) group members familiarized with problem 2) group members working silently and alone to generate solutions 3) share ideas in a round robin fashion- each take turns sharing ideas 4) evaluate ideas round robin 5) vote privately from best to worst

What is the optimal size for a decision making group?

5 OR 7; smaller groups have better group dynamics

Why do we make decisions as managers?

Accomplish goals efficiently

What is the gambler's fallacy?

After 10 bad hands of poker, the 11th has to be good. Chance doesn't correct itself.

What two creativity techniques does synectics use in helping the group to generate better ideas?

Analogy and fantasy

What does the behavioral model assume about decision-makers?

Bounded rationality (limited knowledge- risk and uncertainty) and satisfice (select first alternative that is just good enough)

Under what decision-making condition do decisions get made in the traditional economic model?

Certainty

What does the traditional economic model assume about decision-makers?

Completely rational and always maximize (select best possible alternative) What you SHOULD do not what you ACTUALLY do

What are the four rules in brainstorming?

Criticism prohibited, freewheeling (more off the wall idea the better) is welcome, quantity of ideas is desired, combine ideas and improve upon them No bad ideas in brainstorming

What does the irrational/implicit favorite model of decision-making say about decision-making?

Early on in the decision making process, you select a favorite, but don't tell anyone. Compare others to "favorite, " distort facts, make your favorite look better; decision has already been made, make decision on gut/feeling "Kerry's love model"

What's the problem with synectics?

Generate and evaluate at the same time(BAD- should generate all then evaluate)

How is NGT different from brainstorming and synectics?

Generate ideas alone, very structured when you come back in to the group

What is the basic purpose of a brainstorming session?

Generate solutions to a problem

What is satisficing? How does it differ from maximizing? Is it irrational?

Go from alternative to alternative until you find something good enough; maximize considers everything- you can satisfice if you're maximizing, but you'd never know it); No, sensible considering limits

What in NGT does one try to eliminate to improve the decision-making process?

Group process to great extent

What is decision-making under conditions of certainty?

Guarantee A will lead to outcome A 100% of the time

In synectics, what is the job of the facilitator? Technical expert?

Helps generate ideas by using analogy and fantasy; helps evaluate ideas

What are some problems that can be encountered when using the Delphi technique?

If it takes too much time between each step, motivation goes down, so quality goes down

What is group decision making a function of?

Individual contributions + assembly affects- process loss (negative from group)

What is the availability heuristic? What factors cause you to overestimate the frequency of an event? Underestimate the frequency of an event?

Judge the frequency of an event by how easily the event is remembered (easy to recall, assume frequent; hard to recall, assume infrequent- not always true); Overestimate- emotional, easy to remember, anything that makes the event easy to stick out, recent, specific; Under- more times than not, not a problem

What are the defining characteristics of the Delphi technique?

Just like NGT with 2 differences- members never meet and remain anonymous

What is bounded rationality? What three things bound one's rationality?

Limited mental capacity, emotional state, and unforseeability of future events (keeps probability below 100%, uncertainty and risk)

What is decision-making under conditions of risk?

MOST COMMON. Know alternative, don't know where it'll lead to. If there's probability, it's risk 1 in 10 and 1 in 100000 are still both risk

What is a heuristic? What are the advantages of and disadvantages of heuristics?

Mental short cut to make a decision, similar to satisficing; allows to make decisions quicker, but can sometimes lead to a bias

Can inhibitions be totally eliminated in brainstorming sessions?

No (nonverbal evaluation)

Is decision-making a function of management

No, not one of the 5, but it's part of every step. Closest related to planning

What research is NGT based on?

Nominal group technique; 5 ind alone generate more ideas then 5 together

What's the difference between programmed and non-programmed decisions?

Non program- new, different, complex Programmed- the decision has already been made, doesn't require thought. standard operation

What types of decisions are made irrationally?

Non-program decision made in uncertain situations

In making decisions, do people pay more attention to descriptive, qualitative information or statistical, quantitative information?

Once you have the descriptive qualitative, it drives out the statistics (someone who has an interest in arts, but a management degree, probably wont be in management of arts)

What is the superhero technique?

Play like favorite superhero, use their powers to solve problems Limitless thinking, fantasy technique

What is an assembly effect?

Positive from group; process loss? Negative from group Anything positive is assembly

Do managers make more programmed or non-programmed decisions, in general?

Programmed. Most things have been faced before, rules, policy, procedure Every programmed has started as a non-programming

Under what decision-making conditions do decisions get made in the behavioral model?

Risk and uncertainty

What is the reasoning behind the Delphi technique?

Same behind NGT, group process gets in the way of making better decisions

How does the framing of a decision affect decision-making? Positive framing?

Terms of a gain; Negative framing? Terms of a loss People take more risks when they're losing

What are operations research techniques? What are they designed to do? What kind of data do they usually require? Are they an aid or substitute for managerial decision-making? What do managers need to think critically about when they use these techniques? Are they applicable to all decisions that managers make?

They are quantitative and statistical techniques to see which is best; require numerical data; used more in risk; AID in managerial decision-making

How do programmed/non-programmed decisions and the different decision-making conditions relate?

Uncertain- non-program Certain- program Risk- can be program or non-program

What is the representativeness heuristic? What's the problem with this heuristic?

Use stereotypes to judge the likelihood of an occurance (hiring a new manager who doesn't "match" how the older manager works- can mean new manager is better, not worse)