Politics in the Timeline of Trump
How much legislation did he push through Congress?
- 2,000 bills signed into law - 7,500 pages of new law
What resources were at stake?
- 85% of competing elections the person with the most money wins
How popular was Barack Obama and what were the historical implications?
- Immediately after the midterm election (Nov. 3-9, 2014), Obama had low approval ratings - 40% Approve 54% Disapprove 5% No opinion Net Approval: -14 - In the last half century, only once did a sitting president have an approval rating that low after the midterm elections - George W. Bush had an approval rating of 33% after the 2006 midterm ¯Unless it improved, it likely would spell defeat in 2016.
What was the threat of terrorism?
- In 2014, 71% of Americans said terrorist attacks were "very" or "somewhat likely" "over the next several weeks", the highest level since 2003.
- What is NAFTA? - What are its main provisions? - What have been the costs and - How has NAFTA affected Mexico? - benefits of NAFTA to the United States?
- NAFTA is a formal agreement that establishes clear rules for commercial activity between Canada, the united states, and mexico - it is overseen by a number of institutions that ensure the proper interpretation and smooth implementation of the agreement's provisions - free trade commission - NAFTA coordinators - NAFTA working groups & committees - NAFTA Secretariat - commission for labor cooperation - commission for environmental cooperation benefits ¯Quadrupled Trade ØBetween 1993-2015, trade between the three members quadrupled, from $297 billion to $1.14 trillion, which boosted profits, and jobs while lowering prices for consumers. ¯Lowered Prices ØLower tariffs also reduced import prices. That also lessened the risk of inflation and allowed the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates low. ðThat's especially important for oil prices since U.S. imported $144.2 billion in oil from Mexico and Canada. ðNAFTA lowered the prices of fresh vegetables, chocolate, fruit (except bananas), and beef. ¯Increased Economic Growth ØNAFTA boosted US economic growth by as much as 0.5% per year. The sectors that benefited the most were agriculture, automobiles, and services. ðUS farm exports to Canada and Mexico grew 156% compared to 65% to the rest of the world ðNAFTA consolidated auto manufacturing and drove down costs, increasing competitiveness with foreign producers ðNAFTA boosted U.S. service exports to Canada and Mexico from $25 billion in 1993 to a peak of $106.8 billion in 2007. ¯Created Jobs ØNAFTA exports created 5 million new US jobs ¯Increased Foreign Direct Investment ØSince NAFTA was enacted, U.S. foreign direct investment in Canada and Mexico has more than tripled, boosting profits for U.S. businesses by giving them more opportunities to develop, and markets to explore. costs ¯Trade Deficit with Mexico ØBetween 1993-2015, trade between the three members quadrupled, from $297 billion to $1.14 trillion, which boosted profits, and jobs while lowering prices for consumers. ¯Manufacturing Jobs Lost Ø683,000 US jobs went to Mexico, 80% which were in manufacturing. Hardest hit industries were in motor vehicles, textiles, computers, and electrical appliances ¯US Wages were Suppressed ØSome companies used the threat of moving as leverage against labor unions problems with NAFTA for mexico ¯Mexico's Farmers Were Put Out of Business ØMexico has lost 1.3 million farm jobs. ØThe 2002 Farm Bill subsidized U.S. agribusiness by as much as 40 percent of net farm income. When NAFTA removed trade tariffs, companies exported corn and other grains to Mexico below cost. Rural Mexican farmers could not compete. ¯Maquiladora Workers Were Exploited ØBy removing tariffs, NAFTA expanded the maquiladora program, where United States-owned companies employ Mexican workers near the border to cheaply assemble products for export back into the United States. ØNow, 30% of Mexico's labor force. The workers have few labor rights or health protections. ¯Mexico's Environment Deteriorated ØIn response to NAFTA's competitive pressure, Mexico agribusiness used more fertilizers and other chemicals, costing $36 billion per year in pollution. Rural farmers expanded into marginal land, resulting in deforestation at a rate of 630,000 hectares per year. ¯Access for Mexican Trucks ØNAFTA would have allowed trucks from Mexico to travel within the United States beyond the current 20-mile commercial zone limit. In 2008, the House of Representatives prohibited the DOT from implementing it without Congressional approval because of concerns of road safety and opposition from US truckers.
How did the Democrats do in the 2014 midterm elections? What did exit polls show?
- The Democrats lost control of the U.S. Senate for the first time since 2006. - The Republicans won 24 of the 36 Senate seats up for grabs, defeating the Democrats 52 percent to 44 percent in the combined popular vote for the chamber. - The GOP picked up 9 seats, accounting for the largest gain by either political party in any Senate election cycle since 1980. ¯In the race for the House of Representatives, the Republican Party won 247 of the 435 seats in the chamber. - This increased the GOP advantage by 13 seats, their largest majority in the chamber since the 1928 elections. ¯Republicans won 24 of the 35 gubernatorial races contested in 2014, giving them executive control of 34 states. ¯Republicans flipped 11 state legislative chambers. ¯The 2014 electorate was very unhappy with the Democratic leadership - Nearly 6-in-10 voters (59%) indicated they were dissatisfied or angry with the Obama administration. - A third of voters going so far as to say that their House vote was meant to express opposition to Obama. - Fifty-five percent of voters had an unfavorable opinion of the Democratic Party. ¯The 2014 electorate was unhappy with Democratic initiatives. - 71% worried about a terrorist attack. - 70 percent thought the economy was not so good or poor and 59% thought is was staying the same or getting worse. - 49% said the Health Care bill went too far
- What is USMCA? - What are its major provisions?
- United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) ¯To begin in 2020; reviewed every 6 years; could expire in 2036 or go to 2052 ¯Higher Pay for Auto Workers ØIn 2020, 30% of vehicle production (40% in 2023) must be done by workers earning an average wage of at least $16 per hour - 3x the pay of the average Mexican autoworker. ØMexico must give workers the right to unionize and each country can sanction the other for labor violations ¯More Auto Parts from Member Nations ØAutomakers can qualify for zero tariffs if 75 percent of their vehicles' components are manufactured in the U.S., Canada or Mexico, up from 62.5 percent under NAFTA. Ø70% of steel and aluminum used in cars will have to come from U.S., Canada or Mexico. ¯Canada Loosens Dairy Restrictions ØCanada will ease restrictions on its dairy market and allow American farmers to export about $560 million worth of dairy products, which is about 3.5% of Canada's total $16 billion dairy industry. ¯New Digital Provisions ØNo duties on products purchased electronically, such as music or e-books, and protections for Internet companies so not liable for content their users produce. ¯Dispute Process Unchanged ØThe Chapter 19 dispute-settlement mechanism, which hears binational anti-dumping and countervailing duties cases, remains untouched in the new agreement. ØInvestor-state dispute settlement will be gradually phased out between the US and Canada, but remains in place for certain sectors between the US and Mexico, after trying to use local remedies for 30 months. ¯Tariffs Exemptions ØIf the U.S. imposes new auto tariffs, Mexico and Canada would be able to export up to 2.6 million passenger vehicles to the U.S. annually without any tariffs. ¯Intellectual Property Rules Stiffened ØExtends copyright terms from the previous standard—the life of the author plus fifty additional years—to the life of the author plus seventy years. ØExtends certain protections for pharmaceutical patent data from eight years to ten years, a change opposed by generic drug makers. ØFor first time, law enforcement officials can stop suspected counterfeit or pirated goods in any of the three countries. Harsher punishments for pirated movies online and civil/criminal penalties for satellite/cable signal theft.
What checks does the Congress have on the President?
- amend block/legislation - amend budget - override veto - investigation, impeachment, removal - confirmation for executive officials confirmation for federal judges - ratification of treaties - declare war
How successful was he in his judicial appointments?
- appointed 28% of all active judges in a single term
How did it change over office?
- consistently has the support of republicans and opposed by democrats (89% 2017 to 86% 2020) - flatline support and flatline opposition - less likely to draw other people to the other side
Who ran for the Republican nomination?
- cruz - paul - rubio - carson - florina - huckabee - santorum - pataki - graham - perry - bush - trump - jindal - christie - walker - kasich - gilmore
How enthusiastic were Democrats in 2016?
- democrats were less enthusiastic - turnout for primaries and caucuses turnout for democrats dropped 18% form 2008 to 2016 - compared to republicans rose 57% from 2012 to 2016
- How bad a problem is illegal immigration? - Where are they from? - What measures did Trump take to combat it? - What and where is the border wall? - How did Trump finance it?
- estimated unauthorized immigrant population in the US lower in 2015 than in 2009 - more than 8 million unauthorized immigrants are in the labor force - they have an opportunity to work - we focus on the immigrants not the business that are hiring them - mexico (6.72 mil) - central and south america (1.78 mil) - asia (1.17 mil) ¯The southern U.S. border has about 650 miles of barrier that take a variety of forms. ØIn more-urban areas, tall "pedestrian" fences are in place to stop people from crossing. ØIn remote areas, the government uses "vehicle barriers" made from old railroad tracks. ØIn mountainous areas and long stretches that follow the Rio Grande, there is no man-made structure. ¯Trump has promised to build at least 500 miles of new fencing by early next year, and his administration has completed about 110 miles so far (most is replacement fencing). ¯ ¯ ¯Sources of Funding: $5.1B is a DHS routine appropriation; $2.5B is a DoD routine appropriation; $3.6B DoD national emergency funding = $11.2B ¯The White House plans to divert $7.2 billion more from this year's military budget, bringing the total amount of money available for the project to $18.4 billion, enough to complete nearly 900 miles of new barriers by 2022. ØOf that, just $5.1 billion has been authorized by lawmakers. The rest is coming from Defense Department funding, primarily through the Pentagon's counternarcotics accounts and military construction budgets. ¯The Trump administration faces legal and physical challenges to hit its construction targets in Texas, where much of the land already is under government control, there are hundreds of riverfront farms, ranches and other properties in private hands in Texas.
What were economic conditions, real wages, and the trade deficit as the 2016 election approached?
- from 2007 to 2014 85% of Americans saw a drop in real wages (the value of your money)...while earnings of the top 14% went up - growing trade deficit with china during the Obama years - the difference between imports and exports - they are selling much more to us
What about health care costs and public feelings about the Affordable Care Act?
- growth in health care spending eats up family income, 2001-2019 - health care spending as a percent of income for a family of four (2001, 12.3%) (2009, 18.9%) (2019, 30.7%) - Obama says he is going to get health care costs under control - it did not health care costs continued to rise - Views of the Affordable Care Act unpopular through mid 2013 to mid 2015 - 50% disaprove - 44% approve in 2015
How have health care expenses changed over the last several decades?
- health care has increased dramatically per capita overtime - nearly doubled the cost of health care in the 2000's - health care spending exceeded economic growth
What are the potential effects of climate change in coming decades?
- health: weather-related mortality infectious diseases air quality respiratory illnesses - species and natural areas: loss of habitat and species cryosphere: diminishing glaciers - water resources: water supply, water quality, competition for water - agriculture, crop yields, irrigation demands - forests: forest composition, geographic range, forest health and productivity, wildfires. - coastal areas: erosion of beaches, inundation of costal lands, additional costs to protect coastal communities. - rising temperatures -
What was the state of immigration?
- immigration has been increasing since 1970 - continues to grow from 2010 to 2014 - 13.3% of the US population in 2014 is a new immigrant to the united states - its been a century since immigration has been that high - stopped the growth of unauthorized immigration during Obama period - increase of legal immigration, flatline of unauthorized immigration - perception of immigration on the economy continue to grow
- How did Trump perform during the Republican primaries? - Who were his chief rivals? - Why was he able to defeat them?
- increasing his lead in the polls - by the time the invisible primary ends he secures - 37% of the republican party - 17.4% for cruz - 11.4% for rubio - 9.2% for Carson - 5.4% for bush - trump knows how to work the media - trump recognizes media coverage whether good or bad is good publicity
What did history suggest about the Democrats winning a third term in the White House?
- it is very difficult for a party to win a third term in the white house - you would have to go back 80 years its only happened once - when George hw bush succeeded two terms of Ronald Reagan - history is not on the side of the democrats
Who were the Republican frontrunners for each of these resources?
- jeb bush (130 million) - ted cruz - carson - rubio - donald trump doesn't need to raise money - fundrasining matters a lot more when you don't have a personal fortune
How did they turn out in their party primaries relative to Republicans?
- more people turned out to vote for the republicans - michigan wisconsin ohio - turn out was down for democrats and more people wanted sanders
What has been the key causes of these changes?
- pecentage of jobs in manufacturing declined - tens of thousands of plants closed - manufacturing production increased -
What conditions were favorable to Republicans at the start of the 2016 presidential campaign
- rise in health care costs - Affordable Care Act not lowering health care premiums - obamas approval ratings - state of terrorism - drop in real wages
- How well did Trump perform in the 2016 presidential election? - What states did he flip?
- sweeps the deep south - west coast - new england - he wins the nomination ¯Electoral College - Trump 304 (306) to Clinton 227 (232) Most EC by Rep since 1988 ¯Popular Vote: Clinton 48.2% to Trump 46.1% Clinton 65,853,514 to Trump 62,984,828 5th time pop vote winner lost EC: 1824, 1876, 1888, 2000, 2016 ¯Most competitive states: MI, NH, PA, WI, FL (Margin < 1.25%) ¯States that flipped: FL, PA, OH, MI, NC, WI, IA
- What are B-Visas? - How problematic are B-Visa overstays? - Visitors from which countries are the greatest source of B-Visa overstays?
- temporary 90 days or less, conducting business - not student visas - most common - leading country overstay in 2015 - canada (93,035) - mexico (42,114) - brazil (35,707) - germany (21,394)
What role did the general election campaign play?
- the general election campaign had little or no bearing on the outcome - very few people changed their minds - in exit polls ¯60% decided before September (C52-T45), 74% before October (C51-T46) ¯26% decided in October/November (T50-C42) - because we have become a very polarized society
How was he able to maintain their support despite not being an especially religious candidate?
- they cared more about policy preference - strong anti abortion policy - he was pro-choice - recognized who his base was
- How widespread were visits from these countries in the years immediately preceding the Travel Ban? - How did the courts react? - How did the Trump Administration respond?
- this was largely done for symbolic - these countries were strongly vetted - didnt have an enormous impact from these countries ¯Nationals from the 6 countries already undergo greater scrutiny and vetting than those from other countries. ØBeyond the identity checks against criminal, terrorist, and immigration databases, and the fingerprinting and photographs that all foreign travelers to the United States undergo, nationals from the listed countries are required to pass further heightened security procedures. ¯None of the listed countries are part of the Visa Waiver Program, which allows nationals of 38 designated countries to travel to the United States for tourism or business stays of 90 days or less without first obtaining a visa. ØUnder the Visa Waiver Program Improvement and Terrorist Travel Prevention Act of 2015, nationals from Iran, Sudan, and Syria, and recent travelers to all six countries, are excluded from visa-free travel even if they hold citizenship in a participating country, such as the United Kingdom. ¯Nationals from Iran, Syria, and Sudan also faced increased scrutiny because the countries have been designated by the State Department as state sponsors of terrorism. This scrutiny includes a review by the Justice Department and other appropriate agencies to determine if a national security threat exists before a nonimmigrant visa can be issued.
How did it compare to his predecessors?
- trump approval more polarized than for any other president since Eisenhower - trump 87% - clinton 6% - never been a larger difference
How well did Trump do compared to recent Republican nominees?
- trump get around the same votes as mitt romney. - its not about how many votes you win its about where you win them
What was Trump's approval rating when he took office?
- trump off to rough start with public - 45% - there has never been a president with lower approval ratings - most Americans gave presidents a chance - tendency for approval ratings to keep going down due to polarization
How much did he make use of his pardon powers?
- trump pardoned a bunch of people early on - trump pardoned 11 people during the first 18 months in office - trump has granted more early-term pardons than recent presidents
What have been the major causes for these rising costs?
- us spends more money on health care than any other country in the planet - small share of people accounted for most expenses - most health care expenses was for hospitals and physicians -
Was Trump perceived as an outsider?
- yes - for all; 73% were for trump as an outsider - for independents; 70% - for moderates; 63% - 50% among registered leaned republicans because he was an outsider
- What is TPP? - What were its intentions? - Why did Trump refuse to join it?
Trans-Pacific Partnership ¯The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) was a proposed trade agreement between Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, Vietnam, and the U.S. signed on February 4, 2016. ¯Trump withdrew the US signature from TPP in January 2017, the agreement could not be ratified as required and did not enter into force. ¯The remaining countries negotiated a new trade agreement called the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which incorporated most of the provisions of the original TPP. ¯It contained measures to lower both non-tariff and tariff barriers to trade and establish an investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) mechanism. ØLowered tariffs on goods such as trucks, rice, and textiles. ØRequired countries to adopt stricter labor and environmental rules, provide stronger legal protections to drug companies, lengthen the term of copyright protection, give foreign investors a new way to challenge countries' laws and regulations, etc. ¯Debate in US over effects ØA study by Tufts University predicts that the TPP would damage domestic industries and could decrease the number of jobs in the United States. ØUS ITC said U.S. exports would increase $357 billion per year & add 0.5%to GDP ¯Investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) rules are designed to mediate disputes between a government and foreign investors. ¯It is an arbitration process that uses trade sanctions to pressure governments to compensate investors whose property is seized. ¯Although the US has a robust legal system, the TPP is expected to allow foreign investors to make ISDS complaints against the United States. ¯TPP opponents worry that foreign companies could argue that the way America regulates banks, the minimum wage, or the environment constitutes an unjust taking of their property, penalizing them for millions of dollars ¯Two aspects of ISDS that have raised particular concern. ØThe process is overseen by arbitrators rather than independent judges. ØISDS allows any foreign investor to complain. ¯Defenders of ISDS say concerns are overblown. The Obama White House said there are numerous trade deals around the world with ISDS provisions. The the US has only faced 13 ISDS cases under those treaties and has never lost a case. Moreover, the ISDS provisions in the TPP would have had stronger safeguards against abuse than those in previous treaties. ¯The TPP required every country to adopt the same long copyright terms that prevail in the United States: the life of the author plus 70 years. Countries whose laws are based on the previous "life plus 50" standard will now have to wait two extra decades before classic works from the 20th century are free for anyone to use. ¯The TPP also prohibits people from tampering with copy-protection schemes that protect movies, music, and other copyrighted works. ¯The TPP requires criminal penalties for people who commit copyright infringement on a "commercial scale." ¯These provisions wouldn't require the US to change its laws, since we're already in compliance. However, the treaty could become an obstacle if Congress wanted to repeal them in the future. lecture 6
What are the formal and informal powers of the President?
formal - the constitutional given powers: - is commander in chief of the armed forces - can pardon those guilty of crimes against the federal government - conducts US foreign relations, makes treaties and receives foreign ambassadors - appoints cabinet members, ambassadors, and federal judges - prepares the federal governments budget - keeps congress informed about the state of the country and the economy - proposes laws and programs to congress - approves or vetoes all bills passed by congress
Who did Trump's Travel Ban originally affect?
jan 27, 2017 - iraq - iran - syria - yemen - libya - sudan - somalia - halts us refugee resettlement program for 120 days - suspends syrian refugee resettlement indefinitely
What was the make-up of Congress when Trump took office?
see lecture 4
- What is DACA? - How were DACA recipients handled under Obama? - How did Trump change the nation's approach to DACA?
¯DACA was created through an executive order Obama signed in 2012. ØIt gives unauthorized immigrants under the age of 31 who came to the U.S. before age 16 (aka Dreamers) a chance to stay in the U.S. to study or work, provided they meet certain conditions such as being enrolled in high school or having a high school degree and not having a serious criminal conviction. ØThose approved for the program are given a work permit and protection from deportation for 2 years, and these benefits can be renewed. ¯About 1.1 million (or 78% of eligible) unauthorized immigrants applied for the benefits, according to a 2014 Pew Research Center estimate. ¯Trump administration stopped considering new applications for legal status September 5, 2017 but allowed any DACA recipients with a permit set to expire before March 5, 2020, the opportunity to apply for a two-year renewal if they apply by October 5. 2018 ØThe Department of Homeland Security will recognize DACA authorizations until they expire at the end of their two-year lifespans, which means the program runs out at different times for different recipients. ¯A pair of federal court orders — one issued in California in January, and one issued in New York in February — have slowed DACA's unraveling by allowing DACA recipients to apply for two-year renewals again. ØAs a result, it's impossible to know how many immigrants lost their work permits on March 6 — and how many will have new ones that last beyond March 2020.
What factors enabled Trump to defeat Clinton?
¯Democrats less enthusiastic ¯Outsider in Anti-Establishment Year ¯Maintained Evangelical Support ¯Beneficiary of Sexism ¯African Americans & Latinos Less Enthusiastic ¯Galvanized White Working Class
What is the Invisible Primary?
¯Frontloading of primaries means candidates need to be well known and well resourced at the start of the nominating contests in order to be competitive ¯The year leading up to the presidential primaries - the so called "invisible primary" - candidates compete for the following resources: - Money - Endorsements - Social Media - Media Coverage - Poll Standing - Candidates attempt to expand these resources through: - Advertising and voter communication - Rallies and fundraisers - Debates and candidate forums
What background characteristics distinguished/favored Trump over his Republican rivals?
¯Grand Hyatt Hotel (1974) Turned deteriorating Commodore Hotel into lavish Manhattan cornerstone. ¯Trump Tower (1980) Iconic skyscraper on 5th Ave ¯New Jersey Generals (1983) Bought USFL team. Team and league ended 2 years later. ¯Wollman Rink (1986) Renovated for Mayor Koch $350k under budget. ¯Trump Airlines (1988) Bought for $365 million Eastern Air Shuttle, but it never turned a profit. ¯40 Wall Street (1995) Bought for $1MM, renovated for $35MM, worth $500MM. ¯Trump Entertainment Resorts (1995) Casino entity filed for bankruptcy 4 times. ¯The Apprentice (2004) Successful TV show ¯Trump International Tower Chicago (2005) - 2nd tallest hotel in Chicago. ¯Trump University (2005) Un-accredited, for-profit school ¯Trump Mortgage (2006) US home-loan lender failed amidst housing crash
What are its major provisions?
¯Length of Coverage Under a Parent's Health Insurance Policy: Young adults can have their health care covered on their parents health insurance policies until 26 years of age. ¯Coverage of Pre-existing Illness: Pre-existing illnesses cannot be denied insurance benefits ¯Ceiling on Health Insurance Coverage: Ends lifetime ceilings on the cost of health care. ¯Medicaid Expansion: It originally called for a major expansion of Medicaid but a Supreme Court ruling enabled states to opt out without losing any of their current Medicaid program benefits. For states that expand their Medicaid Programs, 100% of the related cost is paid for by the Federal government for the first 3 years, and then 90% until 2020. ¯Medicare Benefits: Guaranteed Medicare benefits are safe, and many preventive screenings are now free - such as immunizations, mammograms and colonoscopy. ¯Cost of Prescription Medications: Prescription medications will cost less because the so-called "doughnut hole" (the gap in payment for prescription drugs under Medicare Part D) will decrease over time, until it is eliminated in 2020. à ¯Health Insurance Transparency: Required all participating health plans to provide a uniform and easy-to-understand summary of their coverage for all enrollees and applicants. ¯Establishment of Health Insurance Exchanges: You can buy coverage through state health insurance exchanges, which are online marketplaces where companies compete for consumers, or through the federal website. The Supreme Court ruled that states can opt out of establishing exchanges. Where states have not established exchanges, enrollment can be done through the federal website. à ¯Employer Health Insurance Coverage: If you like your employers health insurance coverage, you don't have to do anything. However, if you don't like the coverage, you can buy coverage through your states health insurance exchange (or the federal program where there is no state exchange). à ¯Individual Mandate to Have Health Insurance: Most taxpayers who don't have health insurance (by March 31, 2014) have to pay a special tax on their annual tax return. This would not apply to persons who have Medicare, Medicaid, or employer insurance. à ¯Benefit in States with Expanded Medicaid Programs: Low to middle income persons and family members less than 65 years of age may be eligible for a subsidy to help pay their health insurance cost. At present, persons with incomes up to $44,680 are eligible for a tax credit refund for purchasing their health insurance. à ¯Medicare Payment to Hospitals and Health Insurance Companies: Starting in 2013, Medicare payments to hospitals will be decreased if they have too many patient re-admissions within 30 days. Thus, patients may get more in-home support. This will also decrease the cost of in-hospital care. Insurance companies must use more of the premiums they receive for patient care rather than administrative costs, or send their consumers rebates.
What has happened to manufacturing jobs/wages/plants/productivity in the United States over the past several decades?
¯Many Manufacturing Jobs Lost ØOverall Jobs declining ØPlants Closing ¯Causes: ØOutsourcing/Offshoring ØTechnological Advances and Automation ØInternational Trade ¯Tradeoff: ØWinners and Losers ØNet gains vs Sector Gains
- How was Clinton hurt or helped by African American and Latino turnout and support? - Was sexism a factor?
¯Nationally: 2016 (11%) (65C-29T) | 2012 (10%) (71O-27R) ¯Clinton support down 14 pts in AZ, 12 pts in NV, 10 pts in NM, NC, 7 pts in CO, 6pts in PA ¯Since 2012, the number of Hispanic eligible voters has increased by 4 million to 27.3m, accounting for 37% of the growth in all eligible voters during that span. ¯Warning Signs: Ø57% of Latinos dissatisfied with direction of the country. Ø% of Latinos who say Dems have more concern for them than Rep dropped from 61% (12) to 54% (16) Ø69% of Latino registered voters said they were"absolutely certain" they would vote, down from 77% who said the same in 2012. Sharpest declines - 13 percentage points - among Millennial Latinos (from 74% to 62%). ¯African American turnout down from 12% of electorate to 11% (93O-6R) to (88C-8T) sexism is alive and well ¯Timeline ØFeb 2013: Clinton's term as SOS ends - 58% Favorable - 32% Unfavorable ØSept 2013: Clinton announces considering run: - 54% Favorable - 33% Unfavorable ØApril 2015: Week Clinton Announced - 46% Favorable - 45% Unfavorable ØFebruary 2016: Week Primaries Began - 52% Unfavorable - 41% Favorable ¯50% were bothered a lot by Trump's comments (voted for Clinton 83-11) but 50% were not (voted for Trump 82-13) ¯52% said Clinton qualified to be President (voted for Clinton 86-9), 47 % said she was not (voted for Trump 90-5)
What are the advantages and disadvantages of offshoring, automation, and free trade?
¯Offshoring ØProduction of less-expensive goods (e.g., t-shirts, toys, etc) has moved offshore. Manufacturing in the U.S. is disproportionately a high-end activity (e.g., heavy machinery, tools, cars) ¯Unintegration and Outsourcing Ø"For every job in the factory, there are eight in the supply chain." ØMany service jobs involved with manufacturing are not done by people in manufacturing: movement (trucks/trains/planes), marketing (salespeople), and maintenance (security/food/grounds) ¯Automation and Technology ØManufacturing has been a pioneer in labor-saving technology, making manufacturing more efficient ¯International Trade ¯Offshoring is when production operations are performed in another country. ¯Benefits: ØOffshoring reduces labor costs if the country's hourly labor rate is lower. ØOffshoring creates more skilled employment opportunities in administrative and operational roles within the United States. ØOffshoring allows companies to maintain complete control over the operation and production of the business ØOffshoring creates new revenues by fostering a demand in destination countries for products, particularly high tech items. ¯3 moves can cause a spike in manufacturing: American companies bringing manufacturing back from low-cost countries (reshoring), American companies manufacturing more in the United States, and foreign companies manufacturing in the United States (foreign direct investment). reasons for offshoring - cost savings - market expansion - speed to market - access to talent - develop new products - develop new services - automation saves money advantages of free trades - lower prices - greater variety - increased employment - increased quality - increased living standards - better relations disadvantages - loss of some domestic jobs - decrease in profit for some domestic businesses - decline of some domestic businesses - trade hurts certain sectors of the economy
What is the Paris Climate Agreement?
¯Overall temperature goal ØThe Earth has warmed about 1°C since pre-industrial levels, because of all the greenhouse gases we've put into the air. As part of the Paris deal, countries are aiming to overall total global warming to less than 2°, and possibly even keep it down to 1.5°C, in recognition that many dangerous impacts are likely to occur above that level. ¯Overall Emissions Goal ØCurrently global emissions aren't expected to peak until 2030 or later, which would make it extremely difficult, if not impossible, to stay below 2°C. Countries agreed on aiming for peak emissions "as soon as possible." ¯Pledges Will Get Reviewed Every 5 years. ØCurrent climate pledges offered by nations don't come anywhere close to keeping us below 2°C of global warming, so countries agreed to submit new and stronger pledges every five years, starting in 2020. ¯Financing for Poor Countries ØThe deal requires developed countries to help poorer countries adopt clean energy and adapt to climate impacts. Developed countries set a non-binding goal of $100 billion per year in investment by 2020, and more over time. ¯Loss and Damage ØPoorer countries pushed for compensation from richer countries for their impact on global warming. The US opposed this, and the deal "does not involve or provide a basis for any liability or compensation." But it set up committees to deal with displacement and other related issues. ¯Transparency measures. ØThe deal calls for yet-to-be-determined reporting and monitoring measures to ensure that countries are actually cutting their emissions as much as promised. The deal calls for a "transparency framework" that is "facilitative, non-intrusive, non-punitive manner, respectful of national sovereignty, and avoid placing undue burden s." ¯Legal status. ØThe climate pledges themselves are not binding — if a country fails to cut emissions as much as it had promised, there are no penalties or anything. But the transparency mechanisms and 5-year revisits are.
What are the different types of relative deprivation?
¯Relative deprivation describes being deprived of something a person feels entitled to. ØFor example, they used to have it, expected to have it, or see that others have it. ¯Three primary forms of deprivation ØEconomic deprivation - fewer material benefits than others ØSocial deprivation - fewer advantages than others ØPolitical deprivation - less voice than others
What did the political landscape look like when Trump took office?
¯Republican control of Congress 2017-2019 ØHouse of Representatives - 241 Republicans vs. 194 Democrats ðHouse Speaker: Paul Ryan (R-WI-1) ðMajority Leader: Kevin McCarthy (R-CA-23) ðMinority Leader: Nancy Pelosi (D- CA-12) ØSenate - 52 Republicans vs. 48 Democrats ðMajority Leader: Mitch McConnell (R-KY) ðMinority Leader: Chuck Schumer (D-NY) ¯Republican control of Congress 2019-2021 ØHouse of Representatives - 235 Democrats vs. 199 Republicans + 1 Ind ØSenate - 53 Republicans vs. 47 Democrats ¯Conservative leaning Supreme Court ØChief Justice: John Roberts Ø5 Justices consistently vote conservative (Thomas-71, Alito-69, Roberts-65, Kavanaugh-55, Gorsuch-52), 4 Justices consistently vote liberal (Ginsburg-86, Breyer-81, Sotomayor-65, Kagan-59)
How often did he make use of his informal powers such as executive orders, memoranda, press conferences, tweets?
¯Set Legislative Agenda ¯Shape Interpretation of Legislation ØExecutive Orders: a directive to an executive agency (published, cited, and prestigious) ØPresidential Memoranda: directive to an executive agency ØPresidential Proclamations: a statement issued on a matter of public policy (often ceremonial) ØStatements of Administrative Policy: comment on pending legislation on Congress issued through the Office of Management and Budget ØSigning Statements: written comment issued upon signing a bill into law ¯Control Information ØExecutive Privilege: power to withhold information to protect deliberative process, national security, or the public interest ØOffice of Management and Budget vs. Congressional Budget Office ¯Influence Opinion (aka Bully Pulpit) ØMedia Access ØSocial Media/Rallies ¯Conduct Foreign Policy Initiatives ØSend Troops without Declaration of War ðStatus of Forces Agreements: govern the disposition of US Forces stationed abroad ØBuild International Coalitions ðSole Executive Agreements: Between President and foreign state (not legally binding) ðCongressional-Executive agreements: Legally binding agreement between the US and a foreign state, but easier to enact (majority of both chambers vs. 2/3 of Senate) - trump had 42 executive orders after 200 days - trump makes use of rallies 5 to 1 rallies to news conferences
What is the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act?
¯The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, known as Obamacare or the ACA, was signed into law on March 23, 2010 ¯The 2,300 page law is the largest overhaul of the US healthcare system since the 1960s. ¯Its aim is simple - to extend health insurance coverage to some of the estimated 15% of the US population who lack it. Those people receive no coverage from their employers and are not covered by US health programs for the poor and elderly. ¯To achieve this, the law requires all Americans to have health insurance, but offers subsidies to make coverage more affordable and aims to reduce the cost of insurance by bringing younger, healthier people into the medical coverage system. ¯Republicans said the law imposes too many costs on business. They have also decried it as an unwarranted intrusion into the affairs of private businesses and individuals. ØDuring Obama's presidency, the House of Representatives, controlled by the Republicans, took dozens of symbolic votes to repeal the law and forced a partial government shutdown over the issue. ¯After the law was passed in 2010, Republicans launched several legal challenges. On June 28, 2012 the US Supreme Court declared it constitutional. ¯Efforts to repeal the law have failed up to this point in time.
How did the United States attempt to curtail the emission of greenhouse gases in recent years?
¯The U.S. adopted new "corporate average fuel economy" standards for light-duty vehicles produced between 2012 and 2025, and for heavy-duty vehicles for 2014-2018 —requiring automakers to meet an average miles-per-gallon standard for their products or pay a penalty. ¯The Department of Energy began setting energy conservation standards for appliances and other types of equipment, and building code standards for commercial and residential buildings. ¯The EPA established the Clean Power Plan which sets goals for each state to cut carbon pollution and allows states to come up with their own plans to meet those goals. ¯The EPA began developing standards to address methane emissions from landfills and the oil and gas sector. ¯Entered into the Paris Climate agreement ¯The U.S. pledged $3 billion to the Green Climate Fund, an international pool of funding intended to help countries adopt less-polluting energy sources and cut emissions. ¯The efforts put the U.S. on a path to reduce emissions 17% below the 2005 level by 2020. To reach the new 2025 goal, the nation would have had to double the pace.¯Withdrew the United States from the Paris Climate Accords ¯Stopped payments to the Green Climate Fund ¯Proposed freezing requirements for new cars/trucks at 2020 levels thru 2026 ØWould drop the fleetwide fuel efficiency average from 46.7 mpg to 37 mpg by 2026 ØWould hike U.S. oil consumption by about 500,000 barrels per day by the 2030s ØWould save automakers more than $300 billion in regulatory costs and reduce the projected cost of a new vehicle by $1,850. ¯Opened vast stretches of land and water offshore to oil and gas drilling. ØIn 2017, the administration shrank two of Utah's national monuments -- Grand-Staircase Escalante National Monument and Bear Ears -- by 51% and 85% respectively and opened them to oil and gas development. ¯Announced that it would no longer require oil and gas companies to install monitors that detect methane leaks from new wells, tanks and pipelines. ¯Replace the Clean Power Plan with the Affordable Clean Energy rule ØWould allows states to set their own emissions standards for coal-fueled power plants. ¯
what role did they play in Trump's victory?
¯The theory helps explain why Trump won the election Ø"Revolutions are made not by those with 'nothing left to lose,'... but precisely by those with something to lose — and a fear that they are, in fact, about to lose it," wrote Michael Kimmel in Angry White Men. economic - 50% people who perceived their personal finances worse were more likely to support donald trump social - 54% of more trump supporters say whites are losing out political - nobody is listening to you or no one cares 86% for trump
How did Trump do with evangelicals?
¯Trump courted Pentecostal and evangelical pastors, created an evangelical advisory board, and integrated them into the campaign. ¯Made use of Christian television (e.g. DayStar Network). ¯Jerry Falwell, Jr: "Evangelical theology is all about forgiveness," ¯Evangelicals comprised a record 26% of the electorate, and more than 80% of white born-again voters voted for Trump. ØClinton received just 16% of the white evangelical vote, the lowest share ever received by a Democratic presidential nominee.
How did Trump modify the ACA by executive order?
¯Trump signed an executive order on October 12, 2017 to alter the ACA (https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/10/12/presidential-executive-order-promoting-healthcare-choice-and-competition) ¯It directed Labor Department to study how to make it easier for small businesses to join together & buy health insurance through nationwide association health plans. ØThe department could give employers in the same industries more flexibility to offer group coverage across state lines, providing them with a broader range of policies at lower rates. ¯The order allows consumers to buy short-term policies, which don't have to comply with ACA's protections for those with pre-existing conditions. Also, it looks to broaden the ability of employers to give workers money to buy their own coverage through health reimbursement arrangements, known as HRAs. ¯Critics worry the order may free these association health plans from several key ACA regulations and from state oversight, allowing them to sell plans with lower premiums but skimpier benefits. That could draw younger and healthier customers away from ACA and send premiums soaring for sicker people left in the exchanges. ¯Trump also indicated that he would withhold the cost-sharing subsidies that the government currently pays insurance companies in order to reduce deductibles and co-pays for many low-income people, which will likely lead companies to leave the ACA exchanges. ¯Individual mandate eliminated ØThe individual mandate is the requirement that U.S. residents have health insurance or pay a penalty. It was intended to keep the premiums for ACA policies low by ensuring that more healthy people entered the market. ØThe 2017 Republican-backed tax overhaul legislation reduced the penalty for not having insurance to $0. ØEnrollments have declined and premiums have increased. ¯States allowed to add "work requirements" to Medicaid ØThe federal government helped pay for states (37 chose to) to expand Medicaid eligibility beyond families to include all low-income adults, and to raise the income threshold, so that more people would be eligible. ØUnder Trump, if they get approval from the federal government, states can now require Medicaid beneficiaries to prove with documentation that they either work or go to school. ØTens of thousands of people were kicked off of Medicaid, not because they were ineligible under the work requirement program, but because they had trouble actually following through on the reporting requirements — dealing with websites, trying to figure out how to report hours effectively, and all the rest." ¯Cost-sharing reduction subsidies to insurers have ended ØThe govt paid insurers to motivate them to stay in the ACA insurance exchanges and help keep premiums down. ØThe Trump Administration ended these subsidies in 2017 ØInsurers addressed this by increasing the price of the silver plan on the health insurance exchanges, so govt ended up subsidizing more people, increasing govt costs. People who make more than subsidies have been priced out. ¯Funds to facilitate HealthCare.gov sign-ups slashed ØThe ACA created Navigator programs and an advertising budget to help people figure out the federally run insurance exchanges and sign up for coverage. The Trump Administration cut funding for the program suppressing enrollments.
What are some of the problems with the legislation?
¯Under Obamacare, states were supposed to expand the number of people who qualified for Medicaid, which had been reserved for the poor, and in return the federal government would provide the states more funding. ØThe Supreme Court, though, said states could choose not to participate in Medicaid expansion. As a result, poor and working-class families who don't qualify for Medicaid find themselves having to pay for private insurance. ¯Insurance companies backed out of participating in Obamacare because fewer Americans than anticipated signed up; that in turn raised insurances costs for everyone, which further drove down participation. ØFor some middle-income Americans, the subsidies available for buying Obamacare policies were not generous enough and the fines for not having coverage were too small to encourage them to enroll in plans. ¯Premiums rose by an average of 24% in 2017. This increase was predicted at the start of the law, and government subsidies to help pay for insurance were also supposed to increase, but those who should be covered by the Medicaid expansion weren't eligible for those subsidies.
How did Trump react to the Agreement?
¯Withdrew the United States from the Paris Climate Accords ¯Stopped payments to the Green Climate Fund ¯Proposed freezing requirements for new cars/trucks at 2020 levels thru 2026 ØWould drop the fleetwide fuel efficiency average from 46.7 mpg to 37 mpg by 2026 ØWould hike U.S. oil consumption by about 500,000 barrels per day by the 2030s ØWould save automakers more than $300 billion in regulatory costs and reduce the projected cost of a new vehicle by $1,850. ¯Opened vast stretches of land and water offshore to oil and gas drilling. ØIn 2017, the administration shrank two of Utah's national monuments -- Grand-Staircase Escalante National Monument and Bear Ears -- by 51% and 85% respectively and opened them to oil and gas development. ¯Announced that it would no longer require oil and gas companies to install monitors that detect methane leaks from new wells, tanks and pipelines. ¯Replace the Clean Power Plan with the Affordable Clean Energy rule ØWould allows states to set their own emissions standards for coal-fueled power plants. ¯
