Strategy, Technology & War Midterm

4 waves in military tech revolution

1. The industrial revolution, powered by fossil fuels and electricity 2. Communications revolution that happened in the 1930s and 1940s, which was powered by the internet and telephones 3. Information tech - From the late 60s to the early 90s, this was powered by computers and Moore's law, the rise of precision strikes. The strikes weren't great at hitting moving targets, but were good at hitting stable ones 4. Autonomous equipment powered by robotics

2 problems in the cold war

1. stop the soviets 2. don't allow the arms race to get out of control

Frederick Terman

A Stanford professor tabbed as the "father of Silicon Valley", he was pivotal in Stanford playing catch up to other Ivy League institutions, and encouraged students to build R&D companies, sitting on the board of some. and hired students to work in teams on projects. Failure was an accepted part of the culture, and the company had money coming in from the NSA, CIA, Pentagon. It became known as Microwave Valley, and there were several Stanford military companies. During his time at Stanford, he expanded the science and engineering departments to win more research grants from the department of defense and fostered good relations between Stanford and the tech industry

Counter-Force vs Counter-Value

A counter force is a target that has military value, such as a missile launch silo. The strategy of a military counterforce is to destroy an enemy's nuclear strike capability before they can launch A counter value is targeted an enemy's assets that are of high value but not actually a military threat, like civilians or cities

Force Multiplier

A factor that increases the effectiveness of an item or group. Think about North Korea, and what they have been able to achieve because of their nuclear capability

Lockheed

A military company founded in 1912. In the 1950s it became relevant as it purchased a lot of military equipment from R+D companies. It built the Lockheed U-2 stealth plane in 1960, when it had 20,000 employees (in 1950 it only had a few thousand)

B-36 Bombers

A plane designed in 1949 to carry nuclear bombs, it was the first manned aircraft with intercontinental range that didn't need to be refueled B-36 bombers were obsolete the day they were produced. The planes were designed to take advantage of German air defense systems in WWII but weren't sophisticated enough to bypass Soviet air defense systems.

Link 16

A system of the US Navy data network, it allows destroyers to talk to drones flying above

Beacon Technology

A way of companies using cyber tech to target customers with increased accuracy, but could potentially impede on privacy. Allows companies to track the location of their customers to as specific a point as down an aisle. Using this tech, they can send notifications offering discounts on even specific items that the company knows the customer is interested in and is nearby Very precise location tracking, connects via bluetooth

Limited War

All capabilities (Nuclear weapons) aren't used

Blackhat

Hackers who break into cyberspace for malicious intent or for personal gain. They break into networks to steal, modify, or destroy data; they often make the network unusable for those authorized to use it. Blackhat hackers are different from white hat hackers, who hack into systems in order to discover vulnerabilities in the system's security, generally hired

Precision Guided Attacks

Allow you to lock onto targets and hit them accurately. They save the lives of many pilots and airplanes because you don't have to fly over a heavily defended area to attack it

Amazon and the CIA

Amazon developed a 600M cloud computing platform for the CIA and other govt intelligence agencies, which could usher in a new era of cooperation with tech companies and government. Government is spending lots of money on information tech with intelligence community because they have decided that they need to buy innovation

Amplifier

An electronic device that increases the power of a signal. They exist on the ocean floor so that signals can get across the world.

Systems Engineering (tech strategy)

Asks the question: "what does it do?" Example: Hunt missiles, surveillance

Small and Medium Sized Enterprises

During the surge of Silicon Valley investing, SMEs were responsible for the locus of innovation rather than giant defense contractors like Lockheed Martin Tax and regulation changes allowed PE and VC firms to invest endowment and money and pension fund money up to 10-15% of their portfolio into these specialized defense companies. General partners were compensated via the 2 and 20 scheme

B-52 Bomber

Built by Boeing in the 1950s, these were long range, jet powered strategic bombers. They are still used today, and can carry the massive weight of a hydrogen bomb. They were based in Northern locations in the US, so that they could fly over the poles in order to hit Russia. The US used denial and deception with these planes by making it appear like the US would fly them over the poles, but they were actually building bases in Spain, Turkey, Ukraine. They wanted to launch through Ukraine b/c Soviets didn't have radar there These planes had the ability to fly higher but were best at flying at around only 300-500 feet, where they were able to avoid radar detection. Pilots flying them in the Cold War were not told that flying one of them was a one way mission, and that they couldn't hold enough fuel to get the pilot back

Good things about nukes

Cheap defense (of both Europe and Middle East) Drive down frequency of wars Conservative political behavior We could spend less of our budget on military allowing us to spur consumption Smaller peacetime military

Automation Revolution

Cheap sensors, data storage, communications leads to autonomous equipment/processes powered by AI and robotics. Also had advanced data analysis

Nitro Zeus

Code name for a cyber attack plan that the US planned to go after Iran with if the talks broke down

Stuxnet

Computer worm that inflected the software of at least 14 industrial sites in Iran. The worm did not need to be installed by a user, and thus was different from a virus - rather, it can replicate itself over a computer network. The worm allowed its authors to see spy on industrial systems and even cause the centrifuges to spin so fast that they tore themselves apart. The worm could even be spread between computers both using windows even if not connected to the internet. Believed to have been created by the US and Israeli governments. Major takeaway: Nations are now spending millions to be able to develop cyber-weapons like this, and expect it to increase. Problem: now that the malware is out in the public, it can be reverse engineered and used on other things

Computer Vision

Computers recognizing objects. Non military application : Camera can see when a box is moved across a checkout line and can also see when it is scanned so it helps Walmart to make sure things were scanned. Can help find missiles on a satellite

STRATCOM

Controls the nuclear missiles, bombers, and satellites that detect missile launches/explosions

Joint Improvised Explosive Device Defeat Organization (JIEDDO)

Created in 05,06. Anytime something explodes and is an unconventional use of explosive is an IED. Set up to defeat IEDs in Iraq, they received permission to acquire technology that fell outside the rules and regulation of the federal acquisitions system. They were comprised to deal with sudden threats and to prepare for battlefield surprises Goal was to think about new ways of dealing with asymmetric warfare and didn't have any restrictions that they could use.

Littoral Combat Ship

Designed to have few crew members, to be smaller and more agile and to work near shore

First Nuclear Age

Don't have to fire a nuclear weapon to use it - use them to deter, communicate seriousness of purpose Words matter - What you say matters. Think about telling Russia you will take out missiles from turkey and not telling the public. Tone of discussion matters Nuclear Head games - want enemy to think you will take certain actions Individuals matter - who is in charge is crucial. You have to play the man Institutions matter - Getting risks wrong - What if you incorrectly predict that your enemy won't attack? Tech-Strat lag - Tendency for tech to develop more rapidly than its strategic application Thinking about unthinkable - this lowers the chances of war because leaders begin to think about issues that they wouldn't have otherwise thought of, sensitizing them to things they should avoid, embrace

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles: 4 Types

Drones: 1. Hobbyist Drones - Readily available for purchase, preassembled systems. There is a risk that they could have GPS indipendent flight systems and deliver payloads like explosive, biological/chemical agents. Could even be used in large numbers to do swarm attacks against people, government 2. Midsize Military and commercial drones - Not generally available to public, used for surveillance but can be used in future to be armed with explosive payloads or precision guided munitions 3. Large military specific drones - Often include armed drones, need military infrastructure to operate, high level of tech and sophistication, can deliver big payloads, jam systems. Are not stealth so can be hit by air defense systems 4. Stealth combat drones - Highly sophisticated tech, many countries trying to produce them, but only the US operates them right now, can be completely invisible Biggest risk is that the technology continues to advance and finds its way into the hands of people/states that will use them to deliver explosive, biological/chemical agents. US needs to be prepared for a world proliferated with drones. They could increase conflict because of cross border strikes or make the world safer (reduce states ability to give safe haven to criminals)

ELINT

Electronic Intelligence: Electronic Intelligence is information derived primarily from electronic signals that don't have text

ELT

Extract, transform, load

Sidewise Technologies

Mature technologies applied to new problem areas. By mature, think of boring, old, and tech that wouldn't attract the attention of first rate scientists and engineers Examples: Hobbyist Drones, SCUD Missiles

Candygram

Fake cell phone towers set up by Snowden allowing him to intercept communications. Phones can be tracked even when signal or phone is off Good for keeping track of where certain targets or assets were. Tracked people via GPS

Dirtboxes

Fake telephone systems that act as a middle man - the connect your phone to a real network but you go through them first, at which point your phone can be spied on

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

Federal research facility formed at Cal in 1952, founded by Edward Teller (father of the hydrogen bomb) and Ernest Lawrence. Competitor to Los Alamos. Developed the warhead for the polaris missile, which required innovation to be able to fit the warhead into the head of the missile (which was small)

3 Kinds of aircraft

Fighters - Job is to hunt down enemy aircrafts and to protect ours. They are placed near the battlefield (way less fuel than bombers) Bombers - Offensive planes that drop munitions on enemy targets and that have much longer ranges. They are less agile and maneuverable, but have stealth tech Surveillance aircrafts - Perform reconnaissance missions

Corona

First spy satellite

John Rodman

Foreign Denial and Deception Committee in CIA

Laurance Rockefeller

Formed a limited partnership in 1958 that eventually became Venrock associates in 1969, providing funding (along with CIA) for U-2 Camera, SAMOS spy satellites that took pictures and helped to identify the power and frequency of russian radars, even Intel and Apple

Close in weapons system

Gatling gun that attempts to put up a wall of lead to stop cruise missiles (unsuccessful)

Himmelbelt

German air defense system that had radars and contained tons of weapons that met enemy bombers as they came in. Russia tried to model their air defense off of Germans

Leed Strategy

Give to tech someone, see what they do with it, good way to come up with new ideas and strategies

Second Nuclear Age

Greatest risk is in regions, where there are rivalries. Second nuclear age is decentralized Multiplayer game - 9 nuclear armed states. Multiplayer games are really complicated, because the third or fourth player can add strategies like double crossing. With 2 player games, the stronger player usually wins, but with multiplayer games that isn't always true Nationalism - It is a powerful driver, though it never really was during the cold war. People thinking their nation is better than other nations Terrorism - Risk of terrorism in the second nuclear age, wasn't in the cold war Second mover advantages - the ability to learn from those who have done it before. people know how to enrich uranium now

ICBMs

Guided ballistic missiles with minimum ranges of around 3,400 miles. Early on, they had limited accuracy and could only be targeted at large targets like cities. ICBMs tend to be based in submarines or in bases in undisclosed countries, which means having intelligence on those of your enemy is critical Cruise missiles (those with a jet on the back) can fly lower to the ground, where they are harder to detect by radar and are harder to intercept, and then can jump up. On the contrary, non-cruise missiles have a parabolic arc and can easily be seen in the sky

Strategic Air Command

Handled control and command for 2/3 strategic nuclear strike forces during the Cold War - ICBMs, and Land-Based strategic bomber aircraft. They also operated all reconnaissance aircraft and did a lot of the denial and deception for strategic positioning of bombers Good example of horizontal integration - a way of increasing info processing. taking people who do the same thing and putting them together owning the oil well, owning the transportation, owning the refinery, owning the gas station

Dollar Auction Game

How much would you pay for a dollar if the second highest bidder also had to pay Turns into a game of who can lose the least by winning the dollar. If we both bet infinity, person who wins is betting infinity-1 The idea is that there is no point in escalation Pork Chop Hill in Korean war - both wanted a psychological victory between NK/Chinese

INRD

Independent Research and Development

End of classified work at Stanford

Innovation system comes to a turning point in the late 60's with student demonstrations and anti Vietnam war sentiment, student occupations. 35% of Stanford research funding in electronics was for classified work

Escalation Theory

Irrational reasons why people let war get out of hand

US CyberCom Organization

It is the part of the NSA responsible for offensive and defensive cyber capabilities. And synchronizes defense of US military networks Make it difficult for other nations to figure out what is goin on Use compartmentalization to protect yourself so others don't know whats going on. Also helps with hacker intrusions so that if he hacks in he only has access to one section Also had many D&D goals

Cofram (Controlled Fragmentation)

Lots of little fragments that blew up with a much more lethal pattern. The smaller fragments had a higher probability of injuring people but not killing them, which put pressure on the healthcare of the army

Cruise (Tomahawk) Missle

Major portion of flight path is conducted at constant velocity. Missiles much faster than B-52s. They launch from a surface platform and are medium to long range, meaning that in the Cold War you didn't have to fly deep into Russia to launch them. They are also accurate because they are guided missiles. However, if you do fire from close range they can do a lot of damage because they'll still have a lot of fuel in them. Can hold both nuclear and conventional warheads. Way to defend against them is with Gatling gun that puts wall of lead

Stealth

Make yourself invisible to the enemy. Fly in high and the enemy doesn't know you are there

Denial and Deception

Manipulate other nations perception by denything knowledge of what youre planning or doing and deceiving into thinking youre doing something you arent. We do it to increase the ambiguity by which we make decisions, which can delay another nation's action, helping the nation performing D&D to achieve its goals. You gain information about how another nation handles its business so that you can use that info to manipulate the information they are receiving or prevent them from getting it. Cyber D&D - relatively new, but becoming more and more important as tech involves Helps to accomplish the following four security objectives: Attention (divert attention of enemy), energy (valuable time and energy of an adversary wasted), uncertainty (create uncertainty around truth of stolen information), analysis (use deception techniques to predict and predict previously unknown attacks) Example: Stuxnet Computer Worm, which was used by the US to destroy Iran's nuclear program while making it appear as a series of accidents

Nuclear Warheads

Much bigger lethal area than normal munitions/submunitions. They have a lethality mechanism from the gamma rays, the neutrons, and the fire. They also cause everything around them to become radioactive. and the winds move the radiation thousands of miles away. Can use them for airbursts (fireball doesn't touch the ground, good for destroying military targets and to minimize collateral damage) or a ground-burst (destroy a society, sucks everything it touches into Mushroom cloud)

MIRV

Multiple Reentry Vehicles. This refers to a payload of ballistic missiles, each with the capability of hitting a different target

Creative Destruction

New structures destroy and replace older ones

Submunitions

Next step of controlled fragmentation. These were launched from artillery or from aircraft, and were projectiles that released little grenades at a predetermined time and spread over a wider area. Caused lots of destruction

Polaris 1 Missile

Nuclear armed missile launched from a submarine that was built by Lockheed during the Cold War. The main attraction of the missile was its stealth, and it was designed to be used for second-strike (a country's ability to respond to a nuclear attack with a powerful nuclear attack against the striker) counter-value (assets of value but not a military threat like civilians). It was replaced by the Poseidon Missile in the 1970s

Moore's Law

Number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit doubles every two years. computing power increases exponentially over time Implication: Information tech powered by computer power

Big Data Cloud

Where you store data, software. Companies used to have hundreds of computer centers in which they stored data

Active vs Passive Deception

Passive - Designed to hide real intentions from an enemy Active - Process of actively deceiving an enemy by providing info of intentions and capabilities that are false Perform deception through lies, exaggerations, understatements, concealment, equivocation

Ballistic Missile Defense System

Placed on naval vessels and set in an autonomous mode, mainly used in SK and Japan to protect them from NK

Siop 62

Plan for nuclear war. Goal was to take out counter value targets after initial strike

Realpolitik

Politics based on circumstances rather than ideology, moral or ethical premises

Bistatic Radar

Radar system that consists of a transmitter and receiver that are similar in distance to the expected target distance. This is different than a multistatic radar, which has a transmitter and a receiver side by side. It has a dish, an airplane, and a collector. Most radars hit the wing and a signal comes back, but bistatic radars measure the gap. These were used in Project Flower Garden

Fog of War

Rationality won't save us Maximize efficiency Empathize with your enemy Takeaway: McNamara would have been considered a war criminal if his side hadn't won the war

Siloed Project

Refers to projects with strict compartmentalization, meaning that different teams work independently and don't know about what the other is doing For example, people working on the means of delivering the atom bomb during the Manhattan project knew nothing about what kind of bomb they were delivering, only the weight and size

Microwave Valley

Refers to the many military spinoff companies that came out of Stanford

RMA's

Revolutions in Military Affairs: 1. Industrial warfare 1917 - planes and shit 2. Insurgency/Guerrilla Warfare - 1936 terrorism 3.WMD - 1945, long range missile deliver 4. Information Technology - precision weapons, unmanned vehicles, computer operations

John von Neumann

Says technological evolution increases instability. There are many dangers to technology, and it is still growing. We don't know the limits

Robert McNamara

Secretary of Defense under Kennedy and LBJ, during the Vietnam war. Famous for coming up with MAD. Proponent of Vietnam war and keeping nuclear arsenal up to date

Fiber Optic Lines

Send light impulses that carry internet data

Strategies for finding mobile missiles

Spies carrying cell phone cameras Hacking security cameras Automatic license plate readers Drones Hacking cell phones

Defense Support Program

System US came up with to detect missile launches from Russia less than a minute after it was launched, giving us around 29 mins to react

Project "Flower Garden" (Shoot the Moon)

The point was to use the moon as a bistatic reflector. The goal here was to use the moon as a reflector in order to detect "Tall King" signals, helping to identify Soviet radar placement. As the earth and moon rotated, Tall King signals could come into view and allow the Americans to plot the precise locations of Soviet radar placements

Networks

There are little formal constraints. They are based on relationships and trust, but are fragile because groups within networks can become excluded from one another

Mass Surveillance

Tapping into fiberoptic lines and other telecom hubs to gather a bunch of data with the goal of identifying trends

PRISM

Targeted surveillance. Program that allows the collection of information, readings of emails, viewing of internet activity. generally need to a court order to use. System is designed to find a needle in a haystack Stores cellular and internet data from US internet companies. collects foreign data from us companies. can say, give me access to a suspected's gmail who lives in europe

Missile Defense

Tech involved in the tracking and destruction of enemy attacking missiles, often placed on ships with vertical launching systems because fleets are a great target

Disruptive Technologies

Tech that has either really big implications or is disruptive in the sense that it alters the power structure in the business world. changes existing market and major players Example: E-Commerce, iPod

Complimenting Tech

Tech that is favorable to power centers and big corporations that reinforces their clout over smaller companies

Employee Retirement Income Securities

The act that allowed pension funds to invest in VC and PE funds in 1979, which lead to a rise in investment in military tech. VC and PE firms began investing money in defense related SMEs, which helped to keep funding flowing after a government decline in funding following the Cold War. Investments in this area used to be incredibly conservative

Napoleon

The last one to fight without military technology

Munitions

The material you put in the end of a missile or tank that is explosive

U-2 Planes

These were high altitude reconnaissance planes developed in 1960 by the US. Their goal was to fly over Russia and Iran to take pictures of the locations Russian missile launch facilities, particularly their long range ICBMs. In 1960, the Soviets shot down a US plane manned by Gary Powers

Fuel Air Explosives

They have sustained blast waves and utilize oxygen to create a high temperature intense explosion that have blast waves that last longer than conventional weapons

Hierarchies

They simplify complex problems and find solutions. They have strict chains of command, and are sometimes criticized for restricting employees's ability to find creative solutions to unexpected problems

Integrated Circut

This is a set of electronic circuits on a small chip of semiconductor material generally made of silicon. They are composed of millions of components like transistors, resistors, capacitors. Integrated circuits replaced the need to pick up each component, and transistors were a key part. They take weak signals and amplify them. These circuits were key because of their light weight (the feature most valuable to military companies), which was much lighter than having a bunch of individual components. They could be put into nuclear warheads and it wouldn't sacrifice range The biggest advantages of integrated circuits are that their costs are low because they are printed with many components instead of with each transistor separately, and they also consume far less material. Additionally, they consume little power and their components switch quickly as a result of the components being close together and their small size

Human Intelligence Program (HUMIT)

This is just a general term that refers to a program of intelligence gathering by human agents and infiltration. During the Cold War, Russia's program was better than the US's, but the US had better signal gathering intelligence (intelligence gathering by the interception of signals, either communication or other electronic signals). Hard for US to get americans into russia during cold war

Strategic Defense Initiative "Star Wars"

This was a proposed missile defense system that was designed to prevent the US from nuclear attack by ICBMs and submarine-launched ballistic missiles The goal here was to deploy ground-based systems as well as orbital deployment systems to focus on strategic defense instead of the offensive mindset of MAD It was proposed by Reagan who was criticized because people thought it would throw off the balance of being in a state of MAD and might reignite an arms race Could have been denial and deception with Russia; force Moscow into spending a lot of money

Tall King

This was a type of Soviet radar used during the Cold War, and was effective in detecting incoming bombers. Thus, it was used in conjunction with air defense systems. The US needed to find these radar systems, or else their B-52 bombers would not be able to travel into Russia because they would be picked up To counter this, the US used bistatic radars with the moon as a reflector to plot the precise locations of these signals in order to find corridors into the Soviet Union for bombers

Multifold Trends

Trends that are independent of one another but become particularly powerful when converging. This was how Silicon Valley exploded in the 1950s-1970s. The Cold War meant that lots of money was coming into SC for research, there were integrated circuits, risk capital was changing in that the tax code was made more favorable and innovation moved away from big company labs to institutions like Stanford, Harvard, MIT, Columbia. Out came integrated circuits and in they went into Lockheed systems (who buys inputs from smaller companies)

Influence Campaign

Trying to create favorable conditions to your strategic goals by manipulating intelligence, diplomatic, economic, political, religious, cultural, social info in order to manage information to change an opponent's perceptions and misdirect their actions

In-Q-Tel

VC arm of the CIA. Finds innovative tech solutions to support the missions of the CIA. They help speed up the product development of the companies they invest in so that the technology can be used by the government

Big Data Analytics

Velocity - real time Variety - lots of different kinds Volume - it is a lot whereas you used to just have soundbugs, you now have those, video recordings, temperature recordings, tons of others

Carrier Wave

Waveform that is modified with an input signal for the goal of carrying information. Wave is a higher frequency than the input signal

Fuse

What sets off a bomb, initially were timed to go off at a specific time, but later were calibrated to explode when near an enemy. Some infrared, some heat seeking

Paul Davis

What we are used to using as our strengths might not be our war strengths in the future , thus, we need strategy

Escalation Theory

instigation or manipulation to intensify risk of war or general intensity of war. vietnam Ladder: Double down on what you're doing Increase the size/volume, introduce other pressues elsewhere-Do other things like a blockade

Transistor

semiconductor devices that are used to amplify or redirect electronic signals. very important for the development of integrated circuits, which was responsible for the rise of silicon valley and its connection to the military prior to transistors were vacuum tubes, these were much smaller and more lighweight

Declaratory, operational, real strategy

what you say you'll do, what the plans and policies by the military are, what the president will actually do