WX Prediction II

Dr. Fujita called mesovortices:

"Mini-Swirls"

Which of the following hurricanes had the highest ACE value?

Hurricane Ivan

The Atlantic tripole signature gives you an idea where the focus of _______ motion is directed at, as this signature is typically seen during _______ impact years.

upward / above average/high

Like the TNA, wet years of the West African Monsoon seem to be related to the __________.

warm AMO

A La Nina will most likely not be as strong/last as long during a _______ setup.

warm PDO

The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season was a huge year for named storms (19 - tied for 3rd all time). However, _______ made landfall in the U.S.

zero hurricanes

The 1926 "Great Miami" Hurricane would have been the costliest U.S. hurricane in 2018 dollars at __________.

~ 236 billion

There was a __________ pressure gradient between where Alma Pinder and Everett Albury rode out the 1935 Labor Hurricane (~ 12 miles).

~ 73 mb

__________ of the intense (major) hurricanes have their origins as easterly waves.

~ 85%

A __________ typically leads to blocking/ridging in Greenland.

- NAO

Which of the following is NOT included in calculating the ACE index?

-Size of the storm -Subtropical storms -Tropical Depressions

In April 2010, a TNA Index of _______ was recorded, which is the highest all time since NOAA began keeping track of the TNA Index in _______.

1.40 / 1948

The MDR (Main Development Region) is located between __________.

10N to 20N from Africa through the Caribbean

As the PDO turns cold there is typically a _______ lag before the AMO will turn cold as well.

15-20 year

When you get to _______ that is considered a hyperactive season in the Atlantic basin.

17 named storms

Which hurricane caused ~ 20 feet of flooding south of Lake Okeechobee?

1928 Hurricane

Which of the following hurricane seasons had the highest total ACE value?

1933

The PDO/AMO are closer to a _______ cycle, where El Nino/La Nina are closer to a _______ cycle.

30 year / 1-2 year

While the 1926 Atlantic hurricane season was not a hyperactive season by named storms, it was still hyperactive by ACE units. It was the _______ highest Atlantic ACE year of all time (1900 to present) with _______.

3rd / 230 units

When the MJO pulse is in the the Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico, you are _______ more likely to get tropical development.

4 x times

Mesovortices are typically __________ feet in diameter.

50 to 200

When the MJO pulse moves in phases/octants _______, _______ in the Atlantic Basin is strongest.

8, 1, 2, & 3 / upward motion

The MJO is being used more and more in temperature forecasting. During the December/January/February time period, you would expect below normal temperatures in the eastern U.S. during phases/octants __________.

8, 1, and 2

Mesovortices can lead to winds up to __________ higher than the ambient winds are already moving.

80 mph

During the 1938 "Long Island Express" Hurricane, the lowest pressure recorded over Long Island, NY was __________.

942 mb

Which of the following would MOST likely lead to tropical development off the SE U.S. coast?

A 1025 high centered in New England

Which of the following would lead to the biggest increase in wind speeds at landfall?

A Cat-3 hurricane moving at 60 mph hitting the coast at a perpendicular angle (90°)

Which of the following is a true statement?

Because the GFS has a tendency to underestimate the strength of the subtropical ridge, as a forecaster you will typically have to adjust the GFS track to the left

Typically, the region between Hispaniola and South America is hostile to intensification until late in the tropical season. Which of the following scenarios would be best to avoid rapid weakening in this hostile region?

A hurricane moving at 15 knots, increasing in latitude away from South America

Which of the following scenarios would most likely lead to rapid weakening?

A slow moving small Cat-5 hurricane moving up the western coast of Florida

Hurricane Charley turned right, partly due to frictional effects. What real life example did I use to help explain the Hurricane Charley example?

A small/fast moving car drifting into the right shoulder of the road

Which of the following statements is/are true?

A small/fast moving hurricane approaching the west coast of Florida from the south, will likely be pulled to the right partly because of frictional effects.

Which of the following scenarios will lead to the max potential wind speeds a hurricane has to offer (verification of higher winds speeds over a large area with higher gusts)?

A strengthening Cat-3 (125 mph) hurricane making landfall

Which of the following scenarios would BEST lead to a hurricane being able to rapidly intensify?

A weak Cat-1 hurricane that has spent 12 hours over land, and is now over open water

This survivor's mother was severely injured in the 1935 Labor Hurricane.

Alma Pinder

The title of Dr. Fujita memoirs was:

An Effort to Unlock: Mystery of Severe Storms

_______ flow off Africa will typically lead to more SAL coming off the continent and also _______ off the coast.

Easterly / upwelling of cold water

Typically, when you have a/an __________ pattern, the MJO pulse likes to "hang out" more in the __________ Basin.

El Nino / Pacific & La Nina / Atlantic

Which survivor's house floated to the railroad tracks?

Everett Albury

True or False: El Nino/La Nina always produces the same weather pattern?

False

True or False: Hurricane Camille had a larger peak storm surge than Hurricane Katrina?

False

True or False: Mesovortices are connected to the clouds above, just like a mesocyclone.

False

True or False: The MJO is only used in hurricane forecasting?

False

Which of the following weather models have a tendency to recurve storms out to sea too quickly (even if the bias is not as pronounced)?

GFS HMON HWRF

Which of the following hurricanes did I use as a great example of making sure you keep a close eye on a storm surviving a hostile environment?

Hurricane Andrew

The only Hurricane Hunter plane crash in the Atlantic Basin was during:

Hurricane Janet

Which index includes the size of a storm?

Integrated Kinetic Energy Index

IMO, the greatest weather book ever written is:

Isaac's Storm

Which of the following is something I recommend repeatedly throughout the tropical forecasting lecture series?

It is up to you as a forecaster to choose the tropical tips you like... Each tip is not perfect, but gives you a good general idea of the overall pattern

On more of a random side note... __________ went to Guam during the 1992 hurricane season, missing Hurricane Andrew, which destroyed his house.

Jim Leonard (pioneer of hurricane chasing)

Which of the following meteorologists came up with the linkage between upward motion in the tropics and troughs digging further south, leading to early winters (Harsh December)?

Joe Bastardi's Dad

Warm April waters in the Gulf of Mexico/SE U.S., especially during __________ years, can be used as a 'predictor' for hurricane impact forecasting.

La Nina & cold PDO

When looking at the Western Caribbean Index, one thing to consider is a current _______, which will act to _______ the piling of air in the Caribbean.

La Nina / enhance/help

The _______ is one of the better indicators of _______ hurricane impact seasons along the U.S. coast. Especially, in combination with warm April Gulf of Mexico/SE U.S. water temps.

May - NAO / high

IMO, mesovortices should really be called:

Microvortices

What South Florida subdivision had unbelievable destruction, likely caused by several mesovortices during Hurricane Andrew?

Naranja Lakes

In ~ 1995 when the AMO flipped warm, you saw the TNA Index flip mostly __________?

Positive

Joseph D'Aleo has a/an _______ theory to explain why the wake of cold April waters negatively affects a region for hurricane development/impact.

Shadow

Is a slow moving storm more likely to maintain strength on the Gulf side of Florida or the Atlantic side of Florida?

The Atlantic side because of storm structure. Less upwelling/less dry air.

If you notice a strong trough over Japan, and 6-10 days later a hurricane is approaching the East Coast of the U.S., which of the following is most likely?

The hurricane will start to curve out to sea, most likely missing the East Coast of the U.S., heading towards the North Atlantic

Major hurricanes (well defined inner core) that moves across land often do not regain their intensity once back over water because:

The land disrupts the inner core of the hurricane, while the outer bands over water continue to have healthy convection

Which of the following statements is true?

The northeast quadrant of a hurricane is typically strongest (wind and surge) because of storm structure and the circulation off land vs. water.

True or False: Forecasting is an art. It is up to you as a forecaster to choose the tips that work best for you. Experience, as always, is the key!

True

True or False: We are currently in a warm AMO?

True

When identifying the Atlantic tripole signature, you are looking for:

Warm SST anomalies in the north Atlantic, cold SST anomalies in the central Atlantic, & warm SST anomalies in the south Atlantic/MDR

_______ storms are steered by _______ winds, while _______ storms are influenced more by _______ winds.

Weaker / lower level, stronger / mid and upper level

With a cold PDO/warm AMO setup you typically see _______ ACE values in the Atlantic Basin and _______ ACE values in the Pacific Basin.

above normal / below normal

Which survivor from the 1935 Labor Hurricane rode out the worst of the storm in a boxcar?

Wilbur Jones

Who wrote, "Storm of the Century - The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935"?

Willie Drye

The upper-air pattern over Eastern Asia can provide clues/hints on the upper-air pattern over the Eastern U.S. 6 to 10 days later. What example did I use to explain this?

Yanking on a rope

Weather is just trying to reach a _______. When the Pacific Basin is cold, you typically see more topical activity in the __________.

balance / Atlantic Basin

With the Western Caribbean Index, the _______ the pressure difference (in millibars) between _______, the less likely the tropical development in the region.

bigger / 10° N , 70-75° W subtracted from 20° N, 70-75° W

A Modoki El Nino is associated with the warmest waters in the __________.

central Pacific

The movement of the Bermuda/Azores high is very important to follow during the Atlantic hurricane season. The _______ the Bermuda/Azores high is to Africa, the more likely you are to have _______ off the African coast into the MDR.

closer / SAL & closer / upwelling of cold water

The _______ looks like a horseshoe of cold SST anomalies wrapped around a smaller pocket of warm SST anomalies in the Pacific Basin.

cold PDO

With a _______ setup, you have a lack of energy focused in the Pacific. To make up for this lack of energy, you will typically see a/an _______ in tropical activity in the Atlantic basin.

cold PDO/La Nina / increase

One of the main problems with tropical cyclone development in 2009, was the amount of _______ in the MDR (Main Development Region).

cold SST anomalies

As the land _______ you increase surface _______ pressure.

cools / high

There are two types of _______. I explain this with __________.

divergence / a slower car losing distance to a faster car in front of it

9 out of 10 tropical cyclones that develop __________ longitude re-curve harmlessly out to sea.

east of 35° W

Higher amounts of Western Sahelian rainfall are associated with a stronger __________ jet over West Africa. Less vertical wind shear.

easterly

You have seen by now that I'm big on natural cycles. I feel like most of these tropical tips play off each other, just like the natural cycles of the PDO, AMO, El Nino, & La Nina. With that said, in my opinion, the key to being a great forecaster is _______.

experience

Studies have shown that hurricanes are __________ more likely in the Gulf of Mexico/Western Caribbean during the "rising" phase of the MJO.

four times

The linkage between hurricane activity and early winters (Harsh December) is a bigger indicator during the __________.

front part of the season (November 15th - January 15th)

Western Sahelian rainfall, typically leads to more _________.

hurricane development hurricane landfalls major hurricane development major hurricane landfalls

When trying to forecast an early winter (Harsh December), _______ hurricane seasons seem to be the common dominator.

hyperactive

Mesovortices are microscale features found in eyewalls of __________ tropical cyclones.

intense / intensifying

A/An _______ hurricane at landfall will more readily verify higher wind speeds over a much larger area and also have the potential for higher wind gusts. An example of this is ________.

intensifying / Hurricane Katrina (Florida landfall)

You typically see an upwelling of colder water off the eastern Africa coast during the __________ of the Indian Ocean Dipole.

negative phase

When using the TNA (Tropical North Atlantic) Index, _______ numbers represent _______ than normal SST anomalies.

positive / warmer

Enhanced convection over the western Indian Ocean and suppressed convection over eastern Indian Ocean is associated with the __________ of the Indian Ocean Dipole.

positive phase

You typically see more robust/amplified easterly waves coming off Africa during the __________ of Indian Ocean Dipole.

postive phase

You will naturally see pressures start to _______ in the NE U.S. later in the hurricane season as the land _______ much quicker than the water.

rise / cools

The placement of the 500 mb ridge is very important in regards to impact for the U.S. coastline. You want to see _______ heights in the NE U.S. if you want _______ of pressure south into the Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean/SE U.S.

rising / lowering

The 1933 Atlantic hurricanes season is second all time with 20 named storms (2005: 28 named storms). One important factor I point out in the lecture, there was likely more than 20 named storms because of the absence of _______.

satellites

ou typically see __________ easterly waves and more landfalling major hurricanes during _________ of the West African Monsoon.

stronger / wet years

Warm SST anomalies would be associated with _______, while cold SST anomalies would be associated with _______.

surface low pressure / surface high pressure

Mesovortices move very quickly, only impacting an area for a few __________.

tenths of a second

When you typically have cold April SST anomalies in the Gulf of Mexico/SE U.S., hurricanes have a tendency to:

track south of Florida/Gulf of Mexico through the Caribbean

You typically see a lot of _______ during _______ years.

trough splitting / La Nina