Ch. 14
Artificially created random numbers must have the following characteristics:...
1) The random numbers must be uniformly distributed. 2) The numerical technique for generating the numbers must be efficient. 3) The sequence of random numbers should reflect no pattern.
_____________ simulation replaces a physical system with an analogous physical system that is easier to ______________. In computer mathematical simulation a system is replaced with a mathematical model that is analyzed with the computer. Simulation offers a means of analyzing very ____________ systems that cannot be analyzed using the other management science techniques in the text.
Analogue; manipulate; complex
-The purpose of the ______ _______ process is to generate the random _________, demand, by sampling from the probability distribution P(x). -The partitioned _________ wheel replicates the probability distribution for demand if the values of demand occur in a _________ manner. -The segment at which the wheel stops indicates demand for one week.
Monte Carlo; variable; roulette; random
Monte Carlo -The more periods simulated, the more ___________ the results. -Simulation results will not _______ analytical results unless enough trials have been conducted to reach steady state. -It is often difficult to validate results of simulation that true steady state has been reached and that simulation model truly ___________ reality. -When analytical analysis is not possible, there is no analytical standard of ____________, thus making validation even more difficult
accurate; equal; replicates; comparison
The _________ must determine if the model's starting conditions are correct (system empty, etc.). Must determine how ________ model should run to insure steady-state conditions. A standard, fool-proof procedure for validation is not __________. Validity of the model rests ultimately on the ______________ and experience of the model developer.
analyst; long; available; expertise
As simulation models get more __________ they become impossible to perform manually. In simulation modeling, __________ numbers are generated by a mathematical process instead of a __________ process (such as wheel spinning). Random numbers are typically generated on the computer using a numerical technique and thus are not ______ random numbers but pseudorandom numbers.
complex; random; physical; true
Many realistic simulation problems contain more ____________ probability distributions than those used in the examples. -However there are several _____________ add-ins for -Excel that provide a capability to perform simulation analysis with a variety of probability distributions in a spreadsheet format. -___________ ______, published by Oracle, is one of these. -It is a risk analysis and forecasting program that uses _______ _______ simulation to provide a statistical range of results.
complex; simulation; Crystal Ball; Monte Carlo
Verification The analyst wants to be certain that the model is ____________ correct and that all operations are logical and mathematically _________. Testing procedures for validity: -Run a small number of ______ of the model and compare with manually derived solutions. -Divide the _______ into parts and run parts separately to reduce the complexity of checking. -_________ mathematical relationships (if possible) for easier testing. -Compare results with actual _____-world data
internally; correct; trials; model; Simplify; real
Monte Carlo Process -A large proportion of the applications of simulations are for _______________ models. -Technique for selecting numbers __________ from a probability distribution for use in a trial (computer run) of a simulation model. -The basic principle behind the process is the same as in the operation of ____________ devices in casinos (such as those in Monte Carlo, Monaco).
probabilistic; randomly; gambling
Outcomes of simulation modeling are _____________ measures such as averages. Statistical results are typically subjected to additional statistical ____________ to determine their degree of accuracy. __________________ limits are developed for the analysis of the statistical validity of simulation results.
statistical; analysis; Confidence
