Critical Thinking - Chapter 11

Identify the questions that must be asked of each inductive generalization that is examined.

Are the premises true? Is the sample representative? Is the sample large enough?

"The Cancer Institute has found that there is a strong link between exposure to ultraviolet rays from the sun and skin cancer. So, exposure to ultraviolet rays causes skin cancer." Which type of causal argument does this argument exemplify?

Argument about a general relationship

The presence of a similarity between analogies is evidence that there is another similarity (or other similarities). What type of argument claims this?

Arguments from analogy

Identify the ways in which an inductive generalization can be made stronger.

By using phrases such as "probably" and "possibly" in the conclusion By making the conclusion less sweeping

Identify an indicator phrase for inductive arguments.

Chances are that

"Every time one billiard ball strikes another, it causes the other to move." Which of the following terms did philosopher David Hume use to refer to the pairing of events in this statement?

Constant conjunction

There are standard tests for determining whether an inductive argument is strong or weak.

False

Which of the following occur when the reference class of a statistical argument is changed to one which is more specific?

It can lead to a different conclusion. It can alter the strength of the argument.

Read the following argument: "Just 42 percent of Oxford students come from out of state.Amanda is an Oxford student.So, Amanda does not come from out of state." Identify a true statement about this argument.

It is a relatively unreliable argument.

"Fifty-five percent of the students of Requford High have siblings. Nadia is a student of Requford High. So, Nadia has siblings." Which of the following statements is true of this statistical argument?

It is unreliable.

In the context of inductive generalizations, identify the true statements about an opinion poll.

It usually involves a margin of error. It is an excellent source of inductive generalizations.

Identify important indicator words and phrases that can be used for inductive arguments.

It's plausible to suppose that Probably It's reasonable to believe that Likely

Which of the following terms are examples of causal terms?

Makes Produces Affects Changes

Which of the following statements are true of arguments from analogy?

Most arguments from analogy are inductive arguments. They are either strong or weak.

Nick and Naomi are sophomores at The Palmsbridge High School. Nick is part of the school choir. So, Naomi is also probably part of the school choir. Identify a dissimilarity between the girls that would be relevant to this argument.

Nick likes singing while Naomi doesn't.

"Logas, Aziz, Ali, and Ren are all creative and enjoy playing the guitar. Logas, Aziz, and Ali also enjoy singing. So, Ren must also enjoy singing." Identify a statement that increases the strength of this argument from analogy the most.

Ren may have sung at some time.

An agency wants to conduct a poll on whether first-degree murderers deserve capital punishment. Identify a question that ensures the most reliable and objective polling results related to the issue.

Should murder convicts be given the electric chair?

"All the dancers that Melanie knows weigh less than 80 pounds. So, all dancers must weigh less than 80 pounds." Identify the restated conclusion that makes this argument stronger.

So, many dancers probably weigh less than 80 pounds.

Identify the features of the conclusion in a good inductive argument.

The conclusion should not claim more than the premises can support. The conclusion should be appropriate to the evidence offered by the premises.

"80 percent college students work part-time to pay for their college tuition. Clara is a college student. So, it is likely that Clara works part-time to pay for her college tuition." This is an example of:

a strong statistical argument.

"Less than 5 percent of single Americans live with their parents. Brenda is a single American. So, Brenda probably does not live with her parents." This is an example of:

a strong statistical argument.

"English is the mother tongue of 80 percent of the American population. Brooke is an American. So, English is not Brooke's mother tongue." This is an example of:

a weak statistical argument.

"All the children Nathan knows in his apartment building are students of Grenolia High School. So, all the children in his apartment building are probably students of Grenolia High School." In this example, the population as a whole is:

all the children in Nathan's apartment building.

A(n) is a comparison of things based on similarities those things share.

analogy

East is to west as north is to south. This is an example of a(n):

analogy

A has characteristic X. B has characteristic X. A has characteristic Y. Therefore, B has characteristic Y. This is the general form of a(n):

argument from analogy.

New York and Los Angeles are both large cities in the US. New York has a population of more than 3,000,000. So, Los Angeles must have a population of more than 3,000,000. This is an example of a(n):

argument from analogy.

Sofia has an IQ above 120. Andrea has an IQ above 120. Sofia is an above-average student. So, Andrea must be an above-average student. This argument is an example of a(n):

argument from analogy.

In the context of opinion polls, a disadvantage of call-in polls is that they have a significant percentage of nonresponses that make the sample population:

biased.

If one event constantly occurs before another, it can be considered to be evidence for a(n) -- relationship between the two events.

cause and effect

Every time we eat, we feel full. This statement is an example of a(n):

cause-and-effect relationship.

"Most Americans love baseball. So, my boss, Harvey, who is an American, probably loves baseball too." This is most likely an example of a(n) Blank______ argument.

cogent

An inductive argument that has all true premises and provides strong support for its conclusion is known as a(n)

cogent argument

Inductive arguments are evaluated based on the strength of the support that they provide for their conclusions because they:

do not guarantee that their conclusions are true.

Polling can be made objective by ensuring that the person taking the poll and the person responding have no or as little information about each other as possible; that is, polling should be:

double-blind.

A statement made about all or most members of a group is known as a(n):

generalization.

All mammals have hair. This is an example of a(n):

generalization.

A statistical argument is strong if the reference class:

has a lot of specific details.

In the context of an inductive generalization, a(n) occurs when the author of the argument rushes to judgment.

hasty generalization

An argument in which the premises are intended to provide support, but not definitive evidence, for the conclusion is known as a(n) Blank______ argument.

inductive

Most tasks can be mastered with practice. So, you can probably master playing the cello if you practice. According to the strict necessity test, this is a(n) Blank______argument.

inductive

Statistical arguments are evaluated like Blank______ arguments.

inductive

A(n) is an argument that relies on characteristics of a sample population to make a claim about the population as a whole.

inductive generalization

All the common house geckos in my apartment feed on insects. So, I guess, all geckos feed on insects. This is an example of a(n):

inductive generalization.

According to the strict necessity test, if an argument's conclusion does not follow with strict logical necessity from its premises, the argument should usually be treated as:

inductive.

If an argument makes a prediction, it is a good, but not foolproof, sign that the argument is:

inductive.

A statistical argument is considered to be strong if the conclusion:

is more likely true than false.

Most causal arguments are inductive because:

it is difficult to take every conceivable possibility into account when attempting to form causal arguments.

In the context of inductive generalizations, a sample is considered to be "large enough" when:

it is evident that a hasty generalization has not been formed.

"All the electrical engineers that Francis knows are men. So, all electrical engineers are men." This inductive generalization is weak because:

it overstates its conclusion.

Most induction indicator words or phrases can be, and often are, used for:

making predictions.

The range indicated by a combination of plus and minus signs within which the results of a poll are expected to lie is known as the:

margin of error.

In order to have a truly representative sample, it must be ensured that nothing is done at the outset of the selection process that would automatically eliminate any segment of the population. This can be achieved by Blank______ of subjects.

random selection

If each member of a population has an equal chance of being selected as a member of the sample population, the selection process can be considered to be:

random.

The group to which the statistics in a statistical argument apply is known as the

reference class

While evaluating an argument from analogy, the second thing that must be considered after verifying the truth of the premises is the:

relevance of the similarities.

A sample population that is like the population as a whole in all relevant ways is called a(n) sample.

representative

In a double-blind poll, neither the pollster nor the respondent should have any indication of the:

right answer.

A limited number of people or things of a certain type is known as a(n)

sample population

All the common house geckos in my apartment feed on insects. So, I guess, all geckos feed on insects. In this example, the house geckos in my apartment are a(n):

sample population.

An argument from analogy depends on the:

similarities between two or more things.

An analogy that uses the words like or as to show comparisons between things is known as a:

simile

Mario is as agile as a cat. This is an example of a:

simile

A deductive argument that is valid and has all true premises leading to a true conclusion is called a(n) argument.

sound

"Logas, Aziz, Ali, and Ren are all creative and enjoy painting. Logas, Aziz, and Ali also enjoy writing poetry. So, Ren must also enjoy writing poetry." This argument can be strengthened by:

stating that Logas, Aziz, and Ali are a diverse group.

90 percent children dislike eating vegetables. Dennis is a child. So, Dennis probably dislikes eating vegetables. This is an example of a Blank______ argument.

statistical

An argument that moves from premises regarding a percentage of a population to a conclusion about an individual member of that population or some part of that population is known as a(n) argument.

statistical

In a statistical argument, if the chances that the conclusion is true are greater than 50 percent, the argument is:

strong

Statistical arguments are evaluated along a continuum of:

strong to weak.

A statistical argument is considered to be weak if:

the conclusion is more likely false than true.

"Harriet and Lavender both have younger siblings. Harriet is a responsible girl. So, Lavender must also be a responsible girl." This argument is weak because:

the number of relevant similarities is too few.

In the context of inductive generalizations, the larger group of people or things of a certain type about which predictions can be made using a smaller population of that type is called:

the population as a whole.

"Most babies weigh more than 20 pounds at birth. So, Jill's baby will probably weigh more than 20 pounds at birth." This argument is uncogent because:

the premise is false.

"Asia and Africa are countries. Asia is also completely surrounded by water. Therefore, Africa must also be completely surrounded by water." This argument is flawed because:

the premises are false.

A deductive argument can have good—that is, valid—argumentation and still be unsound if:

the premises are not all true.

Most high school students in America prefer experiential learning to traditional classroom learning. So, these days probably, high school students all over the world prefer experiential learning. This argument is weak because:

the sample population is not representative.

According to philosopher David Hume, if two events always happen one before the other, then:

they are constantly conjoined.

A statistical argument approaches 50 percent and offers evidence that their conclusion is more likely true than false. The best way to determine the reliability of this argument is:

to be practical.

In the context of inductive generalizations, the aim of an opinion poll about a certain issue is:

to determine what a large population thinks or believes about the issue.

An inductive argument that provides strong support for its conclusion but has one or more false premises is considered to be a(n) Blank______ argument.

uncogent

Statistical arguments that approach 50 percent and offer evidence that their conclusion is more likely true than false are strong but:

unreliable

In a statistical argument, if the chances that the conclusion is true are less than 50 percent, the argument is:

weak

Less than 10% of the students at Merklei University are vegetarians. Paula is a student at Merklei University. So, Paula is probably vegetarian. This is an example of a(n) Blank______ inductive argument.

weak

The fallacy that results from comparing two (or more) things that aren't really comparable is known as the fallacy of .

weak analogy

When arguers claim that two things share a certain similarity on the basis of other similarities while overlooking important dissimilarities, they commit the fallacy of:

weak analogy.

The first criterion that must be considered while evaluating an argument from analogy is:

whether the premises are true.

Inductive arguments have varying degrees of strength and weakness.

True

The criteria for constructing a good argument from analogy are the same as those for evaluating an argument from analogy.

True

Match the types of inductive argument to their corresponding definitions Strong Inductive Argument Weak Inductive Argument

An argument in which the premises provide evidence that the conclusion is more likely true than false. An argument in which the premises do not provide evidence that the conclusion is more likely true than false.

Identify the factors that have a negative effect on the reliability of a poll.

Dishonesty Slanted questions

In the context of evaluating the strength of an argument from analogy, which of the following ways should be used to make an argument from analogy stronger?

Ensuring that the conclusion is less specific Making the conclusion broader

A large sample guarantees that poll results will be accurate.

False

"Seventy-five percent of first-year college students are members of the school drama society. Aria is a first-year college student. So, Aria is probably a member of the school drama society." Identify the reference class in this example.

First-year college students who are members of the school drama society

Harry and Joe are both married 35-year-old men who live in the same neighborhood. Harry has a well-paid job. So, Joe must also have a well-paid job. Identify a relevant difference between Harry and Joe which would weaken this argument.

Harry has a college degree while Joe doesn't.

Kevin and Russell are both 30-year-old men, having dark skin, blue eyes, and wavy hair. Kevin is an electrical engineer. Therefore, Russell must also be an electrical engineer. Identify the flaw in this argument.

The similarities are irrelevant.

Identify the criteria that must be kept in mind while constructing an argument from analogy.

The similarities between the analogies should be relevant. The premises should be true.

Identify a true statement about arguments from analogy.

There are no direct methods for determining whether they are strong or weak.

"Richard and Michael are both great surgeons. Richard is ambidextrous. So, Michael is probably ambidextrous too." Identify a true statement about this argument.

There is only one relevant similarity.

In the context of opinion polls, identify the features of call-in polls.

They have a significant percentage of nonresponses. They are prime examples of self-selecting samples.

Read the following argument: "Tiffany, Heather, Amber, and Krissy are all tall and play basketball.Tiffany, Amber, and Krissy also play volleyball.So, Heather must also play volleyball." This argument would be strengthened if:

Tiffany, Amber, and Krissy had nothing much in common aside from being tall and playing both basketball and volleyball.