Demographic Transition Model

Describe the fifth stage of the Demographic transition model.

A stage 5 was not originally thought of as part of the DTM, but some northern countries are now reaching the stage where total population is declining where birth rates have dropped below death rate.

How might a country transition from stage 1 to stage 2?

Improvements in food supply, better medical understanding, improved water supply, better sewage, etc.

What are two successful strategies for lowering birth rates?

Improving Education and Health Care, family planning.

What would a stage 4 DTM look like as a population pyramid?

Surfboard

What would a stage 1 DTM look like as a population pyramid?

Tent

What would a stage 3 DTM look like as a population pyramid?

Tombstone

What do the DTM look like as population pyramids?

1-Tent 2-Pyramid 3-Tombstone 4-Surfboard 5-Peppershaker

What countries are examples of stage 1?

Afghanistan, Ivory Coast.

Stage 4

Birth and death rates both low; population growth very low or zero

Stage 3

Birth rates decline sharply and death rates decline a bit more; growth still occurs, but at a reduced and declining rate

Describe the third stage of the Demographic transition model.

Birth rates now fall rapidly while death rates continue to fall. The total population begins to peak and the population increase slows to a constant.

Describe the second stage of the Demographic transition model.

Birth rates remain high but death rates fall rapidly causing a high population growth (as shown by the total population graph)

Describe the fourth stage of the Demographic transition model.

Both birth rates and death rates remain low, fluctuating with 'baby booms' and epidemics of illnesses and disease. This results in a steady population.

Describe the first stage of the Demographic transition model.

Both high birth and death rates fluctuate in the first stage of the population model giving a small population growth (shown b the small total population graph)

Stage 2 is referred to as what?

Early Industrial

What country is the DTM based on?

Europe

What countries are examples of stage 5?

Germany, Sweden, (UK)

Stage 1

High birth rates and high death rates; population growth slow; agrarian society

Stage 2

High birth rates, but death rates decline; growth not from increase in births, but from decline in deaths

What countries are examples of stage 3?

Ireland, China, New Zealand, Brazil

Example of a Stage 5 country

Japan, Italy, etc.

What countries are examples of stage 2?

Jordan, Thailand, Egypt, Kenya, India

Stage 3 is referred to as what?

Later Industrial

"Stage 5"

Much of Europe now or soon in population decline as birth rates drop far below replacement level

Are there any countries still in stage 1?

No

What would a stage 5 DTM look like as a population pyramid?

Pepper Shaker

Stage 4 is referred to as what?

Post-Industrial

Stage 1 is referred to as what?

Pre-Industrial

What would a stage 2 DTM look like as a population pyramid?

Pyramid

The DTM is a story of what?

Rags to riches

How might a country transition from stage 2 to stage 3?

Societies become more urban and less rural, declining childhood death in rural areas (fewer kids needed), increasing urbanization, city living raises cost of having dependents, women enter labor force, etc.

What countries are examples of stage 4?

United States, Japan, France, UK.

What is the fifth stage of the DTM characterized by?

Very low CBR, Increasing CDR, Negative NIR, over time, few young women in child-bearing years.

The DTM only predicts what?

changes in birth/death rates over time

Stage 4: Low Growth

•A country reaches Stage 4 when the CBR declines to the point where it equals the CDR and the NIR approaches zero. •This condition is called zero population growth (ZPG); demographers sometimes look to the total fertility rate (TFR) that results in a lack of change in the total population over a long term. •Many European countries have reached Stage 4 •Several social customs can explain a country's movement into stage 4: more women in the labor force, increased variety and access to birth control methods, increased income & desire to participate in activities that are not "child friendly", and higher death rates (esp. eastern Europe) b/c inadequate pollution controls.

Stage 2: High Growth

•Characterized by a strong population growth: a very low crude death rate but the crude birth rate remains the same. •2 parts: 1st part is the period of accelerating population growth; 2nd part is a slower growth rate but the gap between death rates and birth rates is high. •Many countries entered stage 2 around the late 18th century and early 19th century as a result of the Industrial Revolution. Major improvements in technology allowed for the accumulation of wealth; some of this wealth was used to make communities healthier places to live, improve sanitation, and personal hygiene. •Countries in Europe and North America entered Stage 2 about 1800 but Stage 2 did not diffuse to most countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America until 1950. •Countries in Europe and North America moved into stage 2 because of the medical revolution - the diffusion of medical technology to Africa, Asia, and Latin America - which reduced the many traditional causes of death in LDCs. •Most African countries remain in Stage 2.

Stage 1: Low Growth

•Most of humanity's history has been occupied at this level. •Crude birth rates and crude death rates varied A LOT from one year to the next. •People depended on hunting and gathering for food. •The agricultural revolution, the time when humans stopped hunting & gathering and started domesticating plants & animals, took place during this stage. •However, human population remained low in this stage since food production was still unreliable •No country is in Stage 1.

Stage 3: Moderate Growth

•This occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply; the CDR continues to fall in Stage 3 but at a slower rate than in Stage 2. •The rate of natural increase is more modest in this stage; people are choosing to have fewer children for several reasons: decline in infant mortality, movement into urban/suburban areas, occupations that are oriented around offices, shops, factories rather than subsistence agriculture. •Europe and North American countries moved into this stage in the 1st part of the 20th century •Most countries in Asia and Latin America have moved to this stage in recent years.