Intro To Climate Change exam 1 UH

• Most common is the normal distribution

- Also known as the bell curve - Peak values most common - Tail values least common

• Sustainability

- Capacity to meet the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs - Balancing mitigation attempts with economic impacts can cause resistance

Two types of statistics

- Descriptive -- Inferential

Affect is both global and local

- Economic interdependence enhance the global component

Climate is dynamic

- It has changed in the past - Will change again in the future

• Changes in climate occur on different scales and vary in magnitude and direction

- Natural cycles - Human actions

Water covers more than two-thirds of the planet

- Occurs naturally in all three states of matter - Changes in state can have a dramatic impact on climate - 96.5% of water is in the ocean - 68% of remaining freshwater is ice - Remainder of freshwater is in groundwater, lakes, etc

• Climate scientists have a wide variety of duties

- Requires cooperation from government, universities and private sector

• Geographic Information Systems (GIS)

- a "system designed to capture, store, manipulate, analyze, manage, and present all types of geographical data" - helps identify and predict ECV differences place to place - Users can get information they need efficiently without combing through a large amount of unwanted data

Climate Change

- a change in the state of the climate system, identified by changes in the average conditions and the variability of its properties, which persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer, due to natural or anthropogenic processes and forcings

Argo

- a global-scale ocean observation network composed of small, drifting and diving robotic probes that measure conductivity and temperature profiles. They transmit data when at the surface

TOPEX/Poseidon

- a joint venture between France's CNES and NASA, launched in 1992, that measured ocean surface topography - Eventually replaced with JASON/JASON2

Geospatial climatology

- a powerful, emerging method of study that examines spatial patterns of climate and their relationships with geographic features, as defined by climate scientists at Oregon State University

Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM)

- a principal example of climate mapping, from Oregon State University, which seeks to address elevation challenges in characterizing climate analysis over complex terrain • Climate can be greatly impacted by changes in elevation • Previously, data was extrapolated to explain changes over elevation • PRISM addresses elevation changes using regression analysis - Finer resolution in data is possible

Polar-orbiting satellites

- a satellite with a revolution that traces a fixed plane while Earth rotates on its axis positioned in the plane.

Climate normals

- a tool used to characterize surface climate conditions at a specific location using just a couple ECVs - "expected values" - Available for approximately 9,800 sites Ex

• Automated Surface Observing System(ASOS)

- an automated, electronic system that replaces the need for some of the COOPs manual observations - Data is considered cleaner since they are automated • First-order data

• Climate Change Initiative (CCI)

- an open climate data record, created by the ESA, for 13 ECVs

Scientific Method

- as a process entailing systematic observation, measurement and experimentation, and the formation, testing and modification of hypotheses - Used as a template for scientific investigations

• Conservation of matter

- matter can be neither created nor destroyed, but can change in chemical or physical form -Mass deposition made during carboniferous period, which are released through the burning of fossil fuels - Adds carbon dioxide to atmosphere at greater rates

- In situ

- measurements obtained by direct contact with the sample • Can be used to calibrate remotely sensed data • Considered to be more accurate

Median

- middle value in a set of ranked observations, so there are an equal number of values above it and below it

Cryosphere

- portion of the hydrosphere in solid form • Most ice is found in the polar regions • East Antarctic Ice Sheet seems to be unaffected, however, it is believed wind direction is helping to save this ice sheet from melting

Cycles

- regular fluctuations of similar magnitude and time span that can be identified in a data series -More complex procedures needed to handle this type of data - Data correction can remove seasonal cycles from data

Lithosphere

- relatively cool, crusty, outer layer encompassing Earth's surface to the deeper, hotter portions where rocks become more elastic and melt (called the upper mantle)

Climate

- state of a complex system consisting of five major components, the atmosphere, the hydrosphere, the cryosphere, the lithosphere and the biosphere, and the interactions amongst them

Trend

- the general tendency of the values to increase or decrease over time for a series • Most linear data will utilize a line of best fit

• Peer Review Process

- the objective, professional evaluation of scientific studies and published papers - Ensures that data and findings are accurate and accurately reported - Ensures for a high level of both credibility and quality

Essential Climate Variables

- those quantities with measurable values that define the current state of Earth's climate system, and allow us to study its processes and predict future states - Easy to measure and are fully monitored - Over 50 variables from all spheres - Help to paint a picture of what is going on *** look at picture in chapter 2 notes online.

Climate Vulnerability

-Degree to which physical, biological, and socioeconomic systems are susceptible to, or incapable of coping with, adverse impacts of a variation in climate - Storms such as Katrina and Sandy have proven that modern society is not shielded from climateinduced social degradation

Private sector applications of climate observations

As much as $4 trillion of the economy is sensitive to climate • Use of climate data in business has expanded as data becomes more readily available

Common standards when creating graphical representations of data

Axes scales should be linear (Saffir-Simpson graph) or logarithmic (stream discharge)

Carbon Cycle

Carbon ties all subsystems together • Chemically or physically transformed between sphere due to the law of conservation of matter

Challenges in Sampling EVCs

Challenges to maintaining instruments in orbit • Varying observational capabilities needed • Quality data is needed - Data obtained from accurate, high precision instruments - Analyzed and deemed to have little bias

Climate Variability

Change in average state of the climate on all spatial and temporal scales separate from singular weather events - Occur with or without human actions

Current Climate Paradigm

Climate change first reported in the 1980s • In order to understand, we must look at all components, sub-systems and interactions.

IPCC is politically neutral

Consists of three working groups and a task force - Examines all aspects of climate and impacts - Releases assessment reports that outline findings

- Descriptive

Describes data as given- quantitatively

Atmosphere

Free-flowing, well-mixed envelope of gases at the interface of Earth and Space • Necessary for survival of life on Earth • Mainly nitrogen, oxygen and water vapor

Global Climate Observing System

GCOS) has aided in the collection and sharing of observations as they relate to the climate system -a multinational collaboration that involves data from a multidisciplinary range of physical, chemical and biological properties, and atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial processes.

greenhouse gases

Gases that contribute to the warming of the climate system

• Two types of orbits

Geostationary and polar

• Crust

Is thinnest under the oceans and thickest under continents • Houses a great abundance of resources, many of which are used as fuels -Lithosphere is broken into large plates, which move over the period of millions of years

Asthenosphere

Layers of rock below the lithosphere that bend more like a fluid and adjust to stress through plastic- like deformations

Regional climate centers support NCDC in data management

Linked with major universities - Allows for direct access for researchers and additional outreach in the community

Climate Data Record (CDR)

Project addresses the challenges of combining all past and present data together to make a long term record As sensors are replaced, they are replaced with sensors of better quality or with different observational capabilities

Big Ideas 2

Quantitative tools are necessary to organize and make sense of the voluminous climate data. • Changes in understanding and in computing capacity help advance the scientific understanding of the climate system. • Latest advance includes GIS analysis.

COOP system has limitations

Require a person to make observations at the same time to the same degree of accuracy

Fastest growing class of remotely sensed observations is satellite data

Sensors on board to monitor a variety of variables - Much more efficient at collecting data

-- Inferential

Tests of hypotheses, making predictions, drawing conclusions

Climate and Society

The importance of climate studies for human endeavors

Current evidence shows the Earth is not in a global radiative equilibrium

The system is gaining energy - Climate change is taking place

Two dimensional data

Two values associated with each point - General relationship found by clustering of points - Scatter plot or scattergram used

• Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

a U.S. agency that, though the Clean Air Act, monitors and regulates carbon dioxide and other harmful pollutants (among other duties).

Service climatologist

a career that studies climate with the foremost goal to society of disseminating climate observation. - Also provides decision support with future climate conditions - Serves as a salesperson of climate data and assists with understanding of data - Understand instruments used and can recognize issues in data

Unbalanced incoming and outgoing radiation cause

a climate shift according to the gain or loss of energy

State Climatologist

a climate scientist, appointed by the state, that serves in one of the regional climate centers, often with a dual appointment at a faculty or state government, serving as an expert to the state government and its residents.

• Ecosystem

a collection of living organisms within the nonliving substances they depend on or near the surface of the Earth - Changes in the climate affect ecosystems in many ways - Significant ecosystem disturbance signals a change in the climate system

• Spatial synoptic classification (SSC)

a hybrid classification scheme based on both manual and automated processes of identifying climate types - Can adjust descriptors on a daily basis - Seed days representative of climate type from season to season are used for comparison and identification of climate type - Output in calendar and map format • Allows for extrapolation of data

Applied climatology

a multi-disciplinary approach to "describing, defining, interpreting and explaining relationships between climate conditions and countless weather-sensitive activities" that focuses on how climatic variations affect humans and human interests

- Polar

a path through space, generally 800 to 1000 km (500 to 600 mi) high, that follows a fixed plane while Earth rotates on its axis within that plane.

Geostationary

a path, relative 36,000 km (22,300 mi.) high, through space that is at the same rate and direction as the rotation of Earth, thus staying directly above the same spot on Earth.

Global positioning system (GPS)

a satellitebased geospatial location system that uses radio frequencies to provide geographic reference information for most places on Earth, so long as at least four GPS-specific satellites are above the individual location's horizon

Balanced incoming and outgoing radiation cause

a stable global climate

Satellite Climate Studies Branch (SCSB)

a suborganization of NOAA's SMCD that exploits the capabilities of Earth-observing satellites to investigate climate variations in the atmosphere, land and ocean.

Descriptive statistics

a succinct quantitative summary of the characteristics of a variable or data set • Many types can be used - Each has advantages and limitations - Selecting the appropriate measure is the first step to understanding the data set

Open System

a system that exchanges both energy and mass with its environment

Closed System

a system that exchanges energy but not mass with its environment

Mitigation

actions that reduce sources of gases which contribute to the warming of the climate system and enhance the mechanisms that remove them from the atmosphere

Argo (2)

aids in calibrating remote sensing platforms and also is able to measure ECVs at the depths of the ocean • Arrays such as Argo are being used in other scientific communities and to monitor additional climate variables

• Plant and animal species

also react to changes in climate

• Ozone

alters the thermal profile 20-30km above the surface - A variant of oxygen, ozone is a triatomic molecule, consisting of three oxygen atoms rather than two in the most common form of oxygen, and highly concentrated in the stratosphere - Serves as a protective barrier against UV Radiation

Time series

an analysis accounting for climate observations taken over time that may have internal patterns, such as trends or seasonal variations

• Köppen classification system

an empirical approach to organize Earth's many regional climate zones that uses native vegetation is an indicator of regional climate as well as patterns in mean annual and monthly temperature and precipitation • Shortcomings include that the underlying connection of vegetation to climate will be destabilized by changes in climate

statistical analysis

analysis, interpretation and presentation of large quantities of data

• Pie graphs

are used to represent how pieces of data relate to the data as a whole

• Dynamic climatology

assumes that Earth's climate system is governed by the well-known laws of physics (principally thermodynamics, radiative transfer, etc.) and behaves accordingly

trace gases

atmospheric gases with much smaller concentrations, often making up less than a hundredth or thousandth percent of the atmosphere, yet still have a significant impact on the climate system

• United States Climate Reference Network (USCRN)

began in 2002 to address inadequacies in data - Stations in areas likely to be unchanged so as to provide best chance at long term record

Climate is variable

but is changing at an unprecedented rate due to the burning of fossil fuels

• Information with a directional component

can be displayed on a radial graph

• Warming in one layer

can cause cooling in another, as is shown in the figure to the right. • As the troposphere warms, the stratosphere cools.

• Carbon cycle Continued

carbon moving through living entities (bio), non-living entities like rocks (geo) in the form of a myriad of compounds (chemical), it is part of a biogeochemical cycle

Climate modelers

climate scientists who not only use observational climate data bus also create a whole new class of information by representing Earth's climate system virtually to experiment with different kinds of ECV observations and quantities • Come from throughout the scientific community • Play an important role in helping understand the climate system in terms of forecasting the future change

• Fossil fuels

coal, oil and natural gas that formed from the layering and compression of organic sediment

• Standard Deviation

common measure of the spread of the values about a middle position in a group

Satellite Meteorology and Climatology Division (SMCD)

conducts research and develops new satellite products to improve and increase use of satellites in measuring ECVs • Includes: - Atmospheric Variables - Land Surface Variables - Hydrological Cycle Variables - Environmental Hazards - Climate Variables

• Climate Prediction Center (CPC)

delivers outlooks for climate variables for time periods of weeks to years with respect to normal values - Example 30 day temperature

Primitive equations

equations that quantify the motions of the atmosphere

The climate system

evolves over time due to its own internal dynamics and due to external forcings like volcanic eruptions, solar variations and because of human actions that change the atmosphere and the terrain due to land use

Applied Climate Information System (ACIS)

gathers together archived climate data and presents it to the user in a visually amenable format

Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES-East, GOES-West) -

geostationary weather satellites, one over South America near 75° W longitude and one over the eastern Pacific Ocean at 135° W longitude to provide a complete view of much of North America and adjacent portions on the Pacific Atlantic Oceans

• Climate change

heightens the vulnerabilities of societies and ecosystems

Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites (CICS)

hosted by the University of Maryland to serve as a liaison between federal scientists and those in academia so that they may work together toward similar goals in utilizing satellite technologies for climate system investigations

• Frequency distribution

how many of each value exists in the group, within a simple, one-dimensional set of numbers

• Observations of ECVs fall into two categories:

in situ and remote sensing

Hydrosphere

includes all water, in all forms on, under and over Earth's surface

Biosphere

integrates all living beings and their relationships with the lithosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere and atmosphere • Collection of all ecosystems worldwide • Every part of Earth supports life of some sort • Can be broken into produces, consumers and decomposers - Relationship between these is known as a food chain - Food web consists of all the food chains in a single ecosystem

troposphere

interacts with other spheres and sub-systems as it is lowest layer of the atmosphere

• U.S. Historical Climatological Network (USHCN)

is a sub-network of the COOP network to address specific climate concerns • Represent the best of the best COOP sites • Represented a usable dataset but was time-consuming to maintain

A system

is an arbitrary portion of the universe with fixed or movable boundaries which may contain matter, energy or both

23% of the Northern Hemisphere

is covered in ice during the winter months

Adaptation

is the adjustment in natural or human systems to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities

National Weather Service

is the direct contact for collecting this information • Dates back to Thomas Jefferson

Human activities

link humans to the Earth's natural systems making climate change more complex

• Standard Score

mean is set to zero and each deviation is set to 1 • Indicates how many standard deviations separate a particular value from the mean of the distribution, either positive or negative, for a normal curve

Remote sensing

measurements obtained from a distance

Polar orbiting satellites

miss the geographic poles due to the gravitational field of the Earth

Monitoring ECVs

must be a consistent, continuum of observations to paint the big picture • Predicting change requires a quality reference point on which to validate models

• Less than 1%

of water exists in the vapor phase • Hydrosphere is a closed system, but is dynamic - Movement is caused by changes in temperature and salinity

National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)

part of NOAA that aims to deliver "analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for weather, ocean, climate, water, land surface and space weather to the Nation and the world."

• Pedosphere

portion of the lithosphere at its upper-most extent, which forms the world's soils • Includes all organisms in the soils • Water flows through cracks and permeates deep into the lithosphere • Freeze-thaw cycle can trap greenhouse gases

• NOAA's GOES

satellites provide data for much of the globe, but cannot collect highly refined data near the poles

Distribution

shape of a frequency graph that is repeatable

• Analyzed scattergram

shows the type of relationship between values based upon shape of the cluster

Variance

square of standard deviation - Provides a measure of the average squared deviation

Recurrence interval

statistical measure based on historic data representing the average reoccurrence of a similar event over an extended period of time - Commonly used with flood data

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

tasked with evaluating scientific data and determining how it will impact the globe - The IPCC was formed by the U.N. Environmental Programme (UNEP) to evaluate the state of climate science as the basis for policy action, and informing scientists, public policy-makers and, ultimately, the public

• Lapse rate

temperature changes with increase in altitude

where is global warming going?

than any other location - Much of this energy is likely stored in the deep ocean

Earth's climate system establishes

the environmental conditions and sets boundaries for weather

Range

the arithmetic difference between the smallest and the largest values of the group

• Average deviation

the average amount of spread of the numbers from the middle value

• Thermosphere

the highest layer of the atmosphere, with a temperature inversion , where gases absorb highly energetic solar radiation

National Climatic Data Center

the physical place where the collected climate observation and model products, as well as non-digital global records, are stored.

Climate science

the scientific discipline generally focusing more on the physical processes on Earth that can affect or force climate to change

Climatology

the scientific discipline that investigates Earth's climate system, focusing on how it functions, what drives its changes, and how it varies in both space and time - Both empirical and theoretical

Mesosphere

the second highest layer of the atmosphere, with a lapse rate

• Stratosphere

the second lowest layer of the atmosphere, with a major temperature inversion and an underlying isothermal layer (the ozone shield)

• Mean

the sum of a set of values divided by the number of observations in the same set ((x1, x2, x3....xN )/ N)

Mode

the value that occurs most frequently or appears most often in a data set

COoperative weather Observer Program

uses citizen observational data to construct a record of trends for temperature and precipitation

• Regional climate analysis

where scientists define clear geographic bounds to a spatial area and identify the intrinsic climatic characteristics that describe that area for a specific time • Require a classification scheme - Genetic classifications deal with why climate types are where they are - Empirical classifications infers type from environmental impacts

Modes by which Climate is defined

• Climate is more encompassing and enduring than weather • Atmosphere is a continuum with energy and mass being exchanged constantly. • Use weather variables and observations over long periods of time to get a glimpse at climate

Importance of the Climate System

• Each of the last three decades has been warmer at the surface than any preceding decade since 1850

Big Ideas

• Earth's climate has always and will always change. • Related components of Earth's climate are not static. • Some ECVs have changed drastically in the last million or so years. • We do not know how these changes will impact humans.

Climate Forecasters

• Falls under the purview of the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)

Central Tendency

• Most commonly used: mean, median or mode

atmosphere 2

• Typically studied by its temperature profile • Can be broken into layers based upon the lapse rate (change in temperature with height)

Climate Variability vs. Climate Change

• Variability relates to natural fluctuations on a smaller time scale • Range of variation and change are a response to the interactions of many mechanisms • Differentiating between the two is done by matching causes to a forcing agent