North Korea
political purge
eliminating rivals and family members, government officials that are a threat
problems resulting of decapitation
plot would break the long-standing US policy that bans such action, but it could be changed; has to be initiated from inside Kim's circle and he has strong security; drones are noisy and slow; China might get of NK's shenanigans and hire NK conspirators to kill Kim; Kim's sudden death may trigger an automatic military response
problems resulting of a preventive strike
1% of failure has catastrophically high costs; no perfect intelligence of where the nuclear weapons are: most likely mobile systems that are harder to find, track, and target; North Korea is mountainous which is perfect for hiding things, and the cornerstone of NK is to resist American threats; even if a strike takes out every missile, NK still has a large, trained, and equipped army; SK's economy would collapse; requires surprise which is impossible because of spies and allies of NK
problems if preventive strike is successful
1.5 million North Koreans would be in desparate need of humanitarian aid; toxic air from bombs in NK; NK's economy and infrastructure would be ruined; stored nuclear and chemical weapons would be scattered and could fall into the hands of terrorists; China and SK would recieve millions of NK refugees; NK would require an interim government and China would be unhappy with the US next to them
Korean War
1950-1953; Kim Il Sung wanted to reunify the Koreas
impact of the Korean War
3 million citizens killed/wounded; 4 million died fighting; ended in a truce, not a treaty
single ideology
America wants to destroy North Korea and is dangerous-hatred towards the US; glorification of the state over individuals; state can do no wrong, the leader is always right
factors that support acceptance
China has the willingness to put pressure on NK; NK has means to level Seoul and kill tens of thousands of American's stationed in SK; the world is already accustomed to dealing with NK; NK realizes that using nuclear weapons will result in complete destruction; Americans have lift with potential of nuclear destruction during the cold war; Kim Jong Un might die: he is obese, has bad habits and bad health; the president of SK wants to have open talks with NK-at odds with Trump
3 generations of Kim family names
Kim Il-Sung, Kim Jong Il, Kim Jong Un
single leader
Kim Jong Un is seen as a god-like figure who doesn't need to go to the bathroom; compared to the sun: get too close and you're burned, get too far and you freeze; weekly village meetings to praise the leader; Kim portraits required in houses; pictures and statues of Kim family dominate the public
capital of North Korea
Pyongyang
capital of South Korea
Seoul
reassurances that NK will not use its missiles
Seoul isn't panicking; Kim isn't crazy nor suicidal; Kim acted with brutal efficiency to consolidate power: he killed his half-brother; his thoughts are thought out and deliberate; family has ruled for 3 generations and survival is the main goal; Kim is young: he has power, family, and wealth; gambling all of that could result in his utter destruction
helpers of North Korea during the war
Soviet Union and China
governments after Korean War
authoritarian
38th parallel
border between North and South Korea known as the demilitarized zone (DMZ)
control of culture
constant propaganda from loudspeakers on a loop on the streets; control of foreign films, broadcasts, art, and ideas: police search the homes, people are arrested and executed; state-owned fake department stores used a propaganda to show a prosperous economy; weekly meetings for indoctrination; omnipresent propaganda in public spaces: statues, portraits, songs, parades, announcements
Mussolini
created the term "totalitarianism" from totalitario
what acceptance would require
deal with a weaponized NK and accept the reality that NK has missiles and there are no good military options
single party
democratic republic of North Korea
use of terror
filming in North Korea and smuggling it out leads to execution; punishment of extended family: guilt by association; 1/100 political prisoners tried to defect; work and prison camps have grown tremendously; people spend months in prison being beaten, tortured, starved; neighbors watch each other and tell authorities - act as spies; public torture and executions to set an example of what will happen to traitors; people that are tortured are often released so that they will spread the message of punishment
reason for NK to use a missile
if NK feels that the survival of the regime is at stake
judicial system that serves the state
if the law is broken, prison camps or execution; protects the state and Kim power in its decisions; no jury trials or lawyers; certain laws against the state guarantee harsh punishments
aspects/features of a totalitarian government
judicial system that serves the state; single leader; single party; single ideology
predictors of songbun placement
loyalty and obedience to the government, family status, ancestral: if family had a role in WWII during Japanese invation or the Korean war
control of communication
no internet, computers, radios; no access to the outside world-access leads to jail or execution; state TV shows propaganda regarding stores in the capital showing productivity and state approved shows; phones only work inside of North Korea
options with dealing with North Korea
preventive strike, decapitation, acceptance
what decapitation would require
removal of Kim and his inner circle by assassination, and replace his leadership with a more moderate regime
Kim Jong Un's main goal
reunify the Koreas
ideology
set of ideas, values, and beliefs
policy of containment
strategy adopted by the US to prevent the spread of communism
songbun levels
the loyal "core" class, the wavering "basic" class, the "hostile" class
what a preventive strike would require
the most massive military strike since the Korean war; commitment of troops and resources is much greater; must be executed so swiftly that North Korea has no time to respond