Overpopulation, Underpopulation and Optimum Population

Boserup on Population

Believed people have resources/knowledge/technology to increase food production - population growth has enabled agriculture development to occur innovation needed, so agriculture techniques updated to match population increase = growth of development and food supply.

Malthus on Population

Believed there is a finite population size in relation to food supply. In 100 years ratio of population to food = 16:6. Food is ceiling to population growth - negative correlation of wheat prices and marriage. Increased above ceiling = war, famine and disease. Pop = exponential, food isn't.

Australia Case Study

Current population 22 million, projected pop for 2050 is 35 million (60% increase) = rapid pop growth. This boom in the pop is as a result of net migration much more than natural increase. Australia is a huge country with an abundance of natural resources.

Australia Social Cohesion

Ensuring an affluent society in 2050 depends on decisions made now. Not diversity itself that causes conflict, it's when ppl see or perceive that other groups are doing better. Pop growth increases problem, it also brings prosperity. In 40 yrs there will be more immigrants from that area and stronger links in terms of trade and culture. New waves of migrants could create conflict. Over yrs, nation has absorbed millions of migrants but not without conflict. Original wave created divide between indigenous pop and the Europeans. Recent immigration has caused social problems based on inequality and unfairness. There have been insurrections in the cities over the last decade. A series of racially motivated mob confrontations took place in the Sydney beachfront suburb of Cronulla in 2005. Soon afterwards, ethnically inspired violence occurred in other suburbs. In Melbourne, in 2009, Indian students protested against racist attacks by gathering outside the hospital where one of the victims was admitted. The tension is, also, showing in some schools. There have been angry scenes as citizens in the Sydney suburbs of Camden, Bankstown and Liverpool protested against plans for Muslim schools. Australian cities are fairly pleasant places to live despite their impact on the environment and on particular groups, like those who are pushed out of the housing market into the private rental sector; and those who are located far from services and employment. Gaps in Australia's society won't be religious and racial - they'll also be based on age. Baby boomers getting older, putting pressure on hospitals in a health system that;s getting increasingly expensive. As voters, these people will have power to protect their interests, while younger people will be paying the tax bill. Decision-makers need to look at the inequalities that exist already, because if more ppl are added, then the problems will be exacerbated. Housing, transport, education and healthcare need to be accessible and affordable. Leaders need a clear vision.

Overpopulation

GDP per capita begins to decline. It is a function of the number of individuals compared to the relevant resources, such as water and essential nutrients they need to survive. It can result from an increase in births, a decline in mortality rates, an increase in immigration or a depletion of resources. Overpopulation occurs when there are too many people relative to the resources and technology locally available to maintain an 'adequate' standard of living - is also about how resources is used - need sustainability.

Optimum Population

In theory optimum population of an area is the number of people, which, when working with all the available resources, will produce the highest per capita economic return - i.e. the highest standard of living and quality of life.

Australia Conclusion

Many problems meaning optimum population is very likely not 55 million. Water is main problem.

Australia Urban Areas

More than 90% Australians live on coastline, 75% in state capital cities. Warnings that city already strained. Brisbane gridlocked, Sydney and Melbourne are showing signs of disintegration, transport systems breaking down, leaving residents frustrated. All parts of infrastructure (hospitals, educational facilities) must be improved. Need more sewage treatment plants that will last 100 years. Some say they can organise a growth in Melbourne and Sydney 4-7 million however must have lived in a very open space, very sparse area and like the opportunity to go beach or national park less than an hour's drive from city centre. Is a car dependent country with low urban density, ppl are spread = increase in transport needs as they travel to jobs in cities. Air conditioned = pollution, suburban sprawl makes a more carbon-intensive world. Future of housing is high or medium rise apartment blocks with families living close to facilities. Gardens will be smaller and shared. New rail system in place as sustainable transport. Now 55,000 a day use it compared to 14,000 on buses - Perth. Triguboff argues skyscrapers (up not wide) are the answer - invested interest. Wants an increase pop as is a huge business opportunity for him. Lack of investment and development in poorer suburbs will cause wealth polarisation between it and the cities which has access to opportunities. Expanding cities place demands on local councils which are responsible for infrastructure and services. Seaside town if Torquay under pressure of sprawl.

Underpopulation

Occurs when there are far more resources in an area e.g. of food, energy and minerals, than can be used by the number of people living there.

Australia Water Supply

Possible water will become too scarce in the world's driest populated continent. Growth of Gold Coast may stop as water becomes too costly. If Canberra continues to grow there will be less water for areas downstream. All cities faced problem of no water for industry, electricity and homes. To support more ppl they must have new water strategy - use less, decrease per capita water consumption. Surrounded by sea - gov have started building desalinisation plants. These operations use lots of electricity and water has to be pumped from coast - may be unsustainable.

Australia Economic Growth

Some entrepreneurs want a pop of at least 55 million arguing that without this growth their economy will stall, like Japan's during 90s - however, they probs just want money for businesses (bias). 43% of labour force (Baby Boomers) will give up work in next 20 yrs - tax raised to fund retirement - need working age immigrants. But added pop might cause cities to break down (not enough water/energy). Lots of migration programmes however most migrants go to Melbourne, Sydney, Perth and Brisbane, and help create a city-building boom. So there are still skills shortages (rural), further calls for migration, and a vicious circle is in place. They want migrants to go to mineral mines - they just go city. Some businessmen say slow growth is necessary otherwise fragile environment might be destroyed as rainfall, river flows and soils cannot increase. There will just be an increase in number of ppl on narrow coast strip.

Australia Food Supply

Sprawling suburbs also jeopardise food production. E.g. in Sydney basin, farms provide 18% of state's food. Soon 20,000 new homes built. 40 yr ago was bush, now since older ppl are retiring and not many young ppl want to farm so land is sold to developers. Currently produces enough food for 50 million a year but most exported. More than half produced in Murray Darling River Basin which consumes 80% of country's water. Basin in crisis due to drought yet still produces because of irrigation (water the SOURCE of a lot of Australia's problems). Farmers have learnt to be efficient and so productivity has managed to be maintained. Rainfall unreliable and prone to droughts. On windy days the country's fragile soils can be blown away over a 1000 miles. Sept 2009 dust storms overwhelmed Sydney and Brisbane. Provided a dramatic example of problems of the loss of arable topsoil. In past 200 years about 70% of nutrients have been lost from soil. The solution is more sustainable farming practices, less ploughing, more crop rotation and resting the land.

Carrying Capacity

The maximum population that can survive indefinitely in an environment.

Australia Energy Supplies

Thermal power stations cheap to run due to abundance of coal supply. However, driven by steam and cooled by water they will be badly affected by water shortages. Higher price of carbon emissions means coal power will become more expensive and renewable energy may be more viable. Within 10 to 20 years they could generate 10% of its electricity from solar power. With price of petrol and electricity releasing more land on the urban fringe is reckless. Running air con in these sprawling suburbs on hot days can double energy use. Building practice should return to more traditional standards that are adapted to the climate. Buildings need to be lighter coloured, better orientated and to be smaller so air con consumes less fossil fuel.