Poli Sci whole course

Hybrid Warfare

"incorporate(s) a range of different modes of warfare, including conventional capabilities, irregular tactics, and formations, terrorist acts including indiscriminate violence and coercion, and criminal 334disorder." - Its Hybrid Threat Training Circular presented three hybrid conflict scenarios: offensive operations, defensive operations, and stability operations. - emphasizes predictability and engaging in combat in contested zones (areas that are highly populated and/or of economic importance).

U.S. faces several challenges: Latin America

(1) Asymmetrical power and wealth of the U.S. cast doubt on the legal, psychological, and operational equality needed for a genuine partnership. (2) Many Latin American states have formed their own trade blocs and actively trade with Europe and Asia. (3) Global competition provided by Europe and Asia for goods and services produced in the Americas. (4) Making use of organizations (Example: OAS) in making decisions. (5) The nature of future U.S. leadership - choice between historic use of unilateral action or move toward multilateral action. -- Most important political stability - refers to conditions of nation-states with respect to continuity, predictability, orderliness in governance, and transference of power. -- Efficiency and effectiveness of democratic governments in meeting social and political challenges is also needed (corruption is a big problem), (poverty is a huge problem).

Cold War What caused the U.S. to change its foreign policy toward a long-term involvement outside of North America?

(1) Lack of agreement over the future of Germany, (2) Communization of Eastern Europe, (3) Russia's reluctance to withdraw its forces from Northern Iran, (4) Possible communist victory in Greek Civil War, and (5) Soviet pressure to force open and possibly control the Turkish straits. U.S. initially adopted Kennan's thesis Truman doctrine (containment)

American military power should only be used for three purposes:

(1) to defend the approaches to U.S. territory, (2) to serve as second-chance forces if deterrence fails or unexpected threats arise, and (3) to provide finite essential deterrence against attacks on the United States and its forces overseas.

What follows is a brief historical survey of arms control and disarmament measures: 1946-1957

- 1946-1957 - Disarmament was the primary focus but not much was really accomplished between the U.S. and USSR. - The first nuclear disarmament proposal was the 1946 Baruch Plan, which sought to place all aspects of nuclear energy production and use under international control. The Soviet Union rejected the proposal. - 1953 - Eisenhower proposed the Atoms for Peace Plan, which sought to get states to cooperate on the peaceful development and use of atomic power. Although this proposal did not lead to disarmament, it did lead to the creation of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which is still in existence today. - 1957 - Open Skies Treaty was proposed. It focused on reducing the fear of surprise attack by exchanging blueprints of military installations and allowing each side to carry out aerial surveillance of the other's territory. The Soviet Union interpreted this proposal as simply an excuse for the U.S. to legitimize its spying, in which it was superior in the first place.

What follows is a brief historical survey of arms control and disarmament measures: 1958-1972

- 1963 - Limited Test Ban Treaty (LTBT), also called the Partial Test Ban Treaty (PTBT), signed between the U.S. and USSR. Outlawed nuclear testing in the atmosphere, underwater, and in outer space. - 1968 - Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), initially signed between the U.S. and USSR, but later expanded to include any nation that was willing to sign. Renewed every five years since 1970. New nations have periodically signed while every once in a while a nation will opt out. As of today, Israel, India, Pakistan and North Korea are nonsignatories; although North Korea had previously signed but withdrew. Iran has signed the treaty. States such as China, France, and Cuba did not sign until recently. Four basic provisions for all signatories: 1. Nuclear states will not share nuclear weapons technology or provide nuclear weapons to nonnuclear states. 2. states will not attempt to acquire nuclear weapons technology or nuclear weapons from nuclear states. 3. Nuclear states will help nonnuclear states develop the technology necessary to produce nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. 4. Nuclear states, primarily the U.S. and Soviet Union, would begin the process of disarmament. 1972 - Antiballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty and Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT) I, signed between the U.S. and USSR. These two treaties are often treated separately but they were negotiated at the same time.

What follows is a brief historical survey of arms control and disarmament measures: 1973-1988

- 1973-1988 - Still a focus on arms control but perhaps in name only as each side fixated on numbers and attempted to match each other's capabilities, rather than freezing the numbers of weapons. - 1974 - Vladivostok Accords between U.S. and USSR signed and SALT II begun. Both agreements set ceilings on strategic launchers and addressed MIRVing and bombers. Two new issues complicated the SALT II negotiations: the U.S. cruise missile and the Soviet backfire bomber. The most important point to remember is that SALT II was never ratified by the U.S. Senate. - 1981 - Reagan moved away from arms control, arguing that such measures allowed the Soviet Union an unfair advantage. Instead, he pursued arms modernization and expansion. In response to the Soviet Union's superiority in theater weapons, particularly its new mobile SS-20, Reagan unveiled his "zero option" policy in 1981 wherein the Soviet Union would eliminate its existing Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles (IRBMs—SS-20) targeted at Europe in return for a U.S. pledge not deploy its Pershing II and Ground Launched Cruise Missiles (GLCMs) in Europe. These missiles are the "theater" weapons referenced above. The USSR rejected Reagan's zero option proposal. The deadlock was broken in 1987 by the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, wherein both sides agreed to get rid of these weapons. Notice that this treaty was an actual disarmament treaty, not simply arms control. - Reagan also began a new round of strategic arms talks known as Strategic Arms Reduction Talks (START). Again, not arms control but actual reductions in the numbers of weapons. START I called for a reduction in the number of warheads and launchers on both sides. Reagan referred to his nuclear agenda as nuclear "build-down" wherein each side would reduce the size of its nuclear forces while simultaneously proceeding with its own nuclear modernization plans.

What follows is a brief historical survey of arms control and disarmament measures: 1989-2001

- 1989-2001 - The rise to power of Gorbachev, the fall of communism, and the end of the Cold War provided the background for this period. - A broadening of arms control to include reductions in conventional forces, and several unilateral acts that produced never-before-seen reductions in both U.S. and Soviet nuclear forces. - START I treaty was officially signed by George H. W. Bush and Gorbachev in 1991. START I reduced each side's nuclear arsenal to no more than 6000 strategic warheads. - START II was signed by George H. W. Bush and Boris Yeltsin in 1993 and further reduced the number of strategic warheads to approximately 3500 for the U.S. and 3000 for Russia. It also eliminated MIRVs on ICBMs. Although both sides ratified the treaty—it took Russia nearly a decade to do so—the treaty ended up never being enforced because Russia withdrew from the treaty in 2002 after the U.S. withdrew from the ABM treaty. Although the treaty basically "fizzled out" the U.S. continued to reduce its nuclear arsenal and the last of the MIRVed MX ICBMs were decommissioned in 2005 (the U.S. had deployed 50 in Wyoming in the late 1980s)

U.S. Interests, Challenges, and Opportunities Lecture 21 Middle east

- 3 major themes since WWII 1) Containment of Soviet Expansionism. 2) Securing oil resources in the Gulf region. 3) Supporting Israel and ensuring its survival. -- We have had other interests such as containing radical Arab regimes and coping with nationalist movements and Islamic fundamentalism. While progress has been made in the Israel-Arab peace process (Camp David - Egypt; Oslo Accords-Palestinian; Jordan more neutral, etc.) forces of extremism still pose problems. -- No more Soviet Union, but instead there are radicals in the form of Islamic fundamentalists (Hamas, etc.). Nation-states that still vow to eliminate Israel (Iran, and to a lesser degree Syria) and extremists within Israel (usually those opposed to any type of peace agreement with Arabs) Further complicating matters is the fact that the U.S. does not get along with Iran and Syria. -- This is the one region of the world where we have the greatest number of enemies. -- The U.S. continues to play the role of mediator and the guarantor of Israeli security (and moderate Arab states). End of the Cold War and the consequences of the Gulf War created new realities in the region. 1) Soviet Union lost its superpower status in the region. 2) Myths of Arab unity and the pro-Arab nationalist i-deas were shattered - more interested in pursuing self-interest. 3) Arab states became increasingly indifferent to the plight of the Palestinian people - explains, in part, the PLOs decision to directly negotiate with Israel (PLO erred in siding with Iraq during Gulf War - alienated other Arab nations). 4) Pro-American regimes in the oil-rich states (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, etc.) emerged as key players in the region after the war. 5) U.S. strengthened its ties with the Gulf States and enhanced its role as their protector.

Policy Recommendations for the 21st Century lecture 21 Latin America

- A foreign policy committed to partnership - not dominance. - Educate and persuade the U.S. public about the changing conditions in Latin America. - Active participation by MNCs. - Expanded cultural exchange and tourism. - Emphasize the usefulness of acceptable immigration policies. - Emphasize trade, investment, drug-trade control, political stability and economic growth - leadership but not dominance and exploitation.

Human Rights

- Americans and others from the Western legal tradition tend to define human rights as being defined by civil and political rights, but other legal cultures place considerable emphasis on social and economic rights. --UN Declaration on Human Rights emphasizes both The central proposition dominating the human rights movement is the idea that all humans have certain basic unalienable rights and there is a universal obligation to enforce and protect those rights. Many questions, though, arise from this declaration: which rights? who enforces? at what cost?, etc. The assertion of a set of universal human rights is a relatively recent phenomenon. Historically, the superiority of the sovereign authority of the state has meant that rulers routinely have been able to do with their citizens whatever they were physically capable of doing. Now that the Cold War competition no longer dominates the FP agenda, the issue of human rights has emerged as a major FP concern for many governments, including the U.S. - technological innovations have also increased accessibility to information concerning human rights abuses in various nation-states. ---The growth of NGOs (nongovernmental organizations) has also facilitated an increase in information and knowledge about human rights issues

arms control and disarmament.

- Arms control seeks to place restraints on the use and accumulation of nuclear weapons. - Disarmament has the final goal of actually eliminating the weapons. - A third strategy appeared toward the end of the Cold War - defense, which took the form of SDI as already discussed. - Critics of arms control argued that the agreements were unverifiable and only weakened the ability of the U.S. to guarantee its own national security. - Supporters even criticized arms control agreements because oftentimes the ceilings were so high that the two superpowers went right on producing, modernizing, and deploying their nuclear weapons.

Chap. 12 notes from book:

- Bill Clinton and George W. Bush pursued bottom-up negotiations, top-down negotiations, in which leaders meet and seek an agreement - first North Korean nuclear weapons agreement was negotiated by the Clinton administration. - In return, North Korea would receive emergency energy assistance and would be removed from the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism. - In April, Vice President Pence asserted that the "era of strategic patience" which Obama had embraced in dealing with North Korea was over. In July, North Korea countered with its first successful test of an intercontinental ballistic missile. -On May 24, Trump cancelled the summit in response to the strongly worded negative response by North Korea to Pence's suggestion that the Libyan model (denuclearization and removal - The next day Trump changed his 304mind about canceling the summit, citing "a very nice statement" from North Korea. - Trump also announced the end of "provocative" joint military exercises between the United States and South Korea and his hope to remove the thirty-two thousand U.S. troops in South Korea, - denuclearization. Kim refused to see him, and North Korea issued a statement complaining of the U.S. "unilateral and gangster like demand" for denuclearization. - He had proposed that North Korea would denuclearize, trading all of its nuclear weapons, materials, and facilities for an end to economic sanctions. This offer was virtually the same as those offered by Clinton and Bush. North Korea rejected it, proposing to dismantle its Yongbyon - annual joint force exercise in August, North Korea indicated that it would resume nuclear testing. Within one month, it carried out seven weapons tests, including launches of two short-range ballistic missiles. - nuclear strategy during the Cold War was not static; it changed several times. It also lacked internal consistency.3 There often was a distinction between how policy makers described their strategy was and what it actually meant in terms of action. Recall from chapter 1 that the former is known as declaratory policy, and the latter as action policy. - On July 16, 1945, the first atomic bomb was detonated at 5:30 a.m. in the New Mexican desert. - None of these weapons was preassembled; it took thirty-nine people over two days to put them together. - U.S. nuclear monopoly ended in 1949 - 1957, it is estimated that the United States probably had three thousand nuclear bombs, and the Soviet Union had a few hundred.6 - The long-predicted Soviet buildup got under way in the mid-1960s; - "parity" was used to characterize the U.S.-Soviet nuclear relationship. - The first war plan to identify atomic bomb target lists was Broiler in the fall of 1947, which called for thirty-four bombs to be dropped on twenty-four cities. - or if deterrence (the use of force to prevent something unwanted from happening) - The nuclear component of this strategy was massive retaliation. - guaranteeing not only the security of the United States but also that of its European and Third World allies by threatening the Soviet Union with massive destruction in retaliation for aggressive behavior. - The Eisenhower administration felt that the Truman administration's pledge of help to any country threatened by communism had given the initiative to the Soviet Union. - Two recurrent lines of criticism of massive retaliation were leveled. 1) concerned its credibility 2) was that massive retaliation was ill suited to the changing U.S.-Soviet nuclear relationship. - Massive retaliation was U.S. declaratory policy. - the two primary contingencies spoken of by policy makers: retaliation and preemption (striking first in self-defense when a threat is imminent). - The first coordinated effort to establish a nuclear action policy came in 1960, when President Dwight Eisenhower approved the establishment of a National Strategy Target List - The Kennedy administration differed in how to structure deterrence and gave attention to a problem not yet fully addressed: how to fight a nuclear war. - flexible response: under which the United States would have a range of conventional and nuclear options from which to choose in deterring 308and responding to Soviet aggression. - three new features into U.S. nuclear thinking: 1. More attention was given to the use of tactical nuclear weapons, more manageable 2. A new targeting policy was adopted 3. The administration looked into two measures that might limit the damage done to the United States in case of nuclear war - Robert McNamara initially estimated that U.S. forces must possess assured destruction, the capability to destroy 25-30 percent of the Soviet population - SIOP remained a capabilities (action) plan rather than an objectives (declaratory) - Nixon administration introduced the principle of sufficiency: which required strategic equality between the United States and the Soviet Union rather than the possession of a minimum level of retaliatory threat.16 This was seen as providing crisis stability, - post Cold War: about whether nuclear weapons were still a stabilizing force in world politics or a source of instability. - At the beginning of 2019, the U.S. nuclear stockpile included 3,800 nuclear warheads (1,750 of which were deployed) and over 800 ballistic missiles and aircraft. - today, as Trump has reversed Obama's policy of declassifying these numbers. - Two other debates are embedded in the debate over numbers. 1) deals with the readiness and reliability of U.S. nuclear warheads, 2) debate centers on the cost of modernizing and expanding the U.S. nuclear arsenal. - The first presidential statement of U.S. post-Cold War policy was Bill Clinton's 1997 Presidential Decision Directive 60 (PDD-60). According to PDD-60, the U.S. military should no longer prepare to win a protracted nuclear war, - contained a requirement to plan for nuclear strikes against states that have "prospective access" to nuclear weapons - in George W. Bush's nuclear weapons policy was to add flexibility to U.S. nuclear strategy by constructing a wider range of scenarios in which nuclear weapons might be employed. - Operations Plan (OPLAN) 8010 contained nuclear strike options against combat forces and options for use of support equipment against six potential enemies: Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, Iraq, and Syria. - the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START). - One of the most controversial aspects of his NPR is advancing the integration of nuclear and conventional forces in military planning and training exercises, - They "include, but are not limited to, attacks on the U.S. allied or partner civilian populations or infrastructure, and attacks on U.S. or allied nuclear forces, their command and control, or warning and attack assessment capabilities - without a clearly defined firewall separating the two, a conventional war might escalate into a nuclear one. - the interaction of nuclear and conventional weapons is especially important in two of the most controversial - Deterrence: The United States is concerned with deterring attacks both on its own homeland (direct deterrence) and against its allies (extended deterrence). - direct deterrence was more easily achieved than extended deterrence - Two different strategies have been used to implement a deterrence strategy. 1) is to set up trip wires, 2) to leave the door open to a nuclear response should deterrence fail. - Two primary failure patterns exist: 1) A fait accompli. Hostile policy makers detect no U.S. commitment and feel that they can control their risks in challenging the United States. 2. A limited probe. The challenging action is easily reversed or expanded depending on the nature of the U.S. response. - led the George W. Bush administration to move away from deterrence to preemption. - deterrence has two dimensions. It contains both a threat, "Cross this line and we will attack," and a promise, "If you do not cross this line, we will not harm you." - A re-emerging deterrence challenge facing the United States involves NATO. It is both external and internal. - it would pre-position U.S. military equipment -

Cold War U.S. Interest, Challenges, and Opportunities

- Cannot be isolationist given our past - Economic interests: markets, oil reserves - Security interests: prevent a revival of the Cold War

Policy Options: Pros and Cons Lecture 20 Japan

- China - We can continue to de-link economic issues from human rights concerns or link the two together. -- Can't get too caught up in optimism about China's economy. -- Still has problems (corruption, graft) - Security - new problem of China making quick gains in nuclear capabilities - ramifications within East Asia and extending to South Asia (India and Pakistan). - Japan - main issue is economic policies and trade between U.S. and Japan: protectionism (tariffs, quotas, etc.)

Russian Sanction

- Cold War sanctions against the Soviet Union were commonplace. The first significant post-Cold War sanctions were placed in response to Russia's annexation of Crimea and its role in the Ukrainian crisis. - 1954 Soviet Union transferred control over Crimea to Ukraine . - This transfer of control took on a great deal of significance in 1991 with the fall of the Soviet Union.

The China Trade war

- During his presidential campaign and early in his presidency, Donald Trump often claimed that tariff wars were easy to win. At least with respect to trade with China, this has not proven to be the case. - How do trade wars end? --

Economic Instruments of U.S. Foreign Policy

- Economic statecraft involves the deliberate manipulation of economic policy to promote the goals of the state. - Nation-states can take different approaches toward economic statecraft: 1. Economic Nationalism 2. Economic Internationalism 3. Economic Structuralism

U.S. Nuclear Strategy - how to use nuclear weapons, whether as deterrent or in actual fighting:

- For the first decade or so there was no real nuclear strategy or doctrine. - The first formally declared nuclear strategy came from the Eisenhower administration: massive retaliation. Massive retaliation was a warning to Moscow that an attack, nuclear or conventional, against the U.S. or its allies would be met by a full-scale nuclear response, and not, as in Korea, by a limited conventional one. The goal was to deter the Soviet Union from attempting to expand its power, particularly into Western Europe, by threatening to annihilate it. This declaration was intentionally vague. Massive retaliation was criticized for two main reasons: 1. It lacked credibility - would the U.S. really use nuclear weapons to protect another nation? We hadn't done so in Korea so many doubted that our declaratory policy would actually translate into action policy. And nothing is worse than a deterrent policy that has no credibility. 2. Massive retaliation was ill-suited to the changing nuclear relationship between the U.S. and the USSR - it assumed that the U.S. had an invulnerable retaliatory force, which was not the case as the nuclear arms race heated up and the Soviet Union began to equal the U.S. in capability.

Free trade

- Free trade is both an instrument of foreign policy and a strategic orientation for organizing economic power.6 - There is nothing inevitable or natural about free trade. - international free trade systems exists trade systems exist because they serve the interests of the dominant power.

The Debate

- George Shultz—former Secretary of State --use of force must always be a last resort --power (the use of force) and diplomacy are not alternatives—they must go together - Caspar Weinberger—former Secretary of Defense --6 major tests to be applied when we are weighing the use of U.S. combat forces abroad: 1. Do not commit forces overseas unless our national interest is at stake—or that of our allies. 2. If we put combat troops in harm's way we should do so wholeheartedly and with the clear intention of winning. 3. If committing troops we should have clearly defined political and military objectives. 4. The relationship between our objectives and the forces we have committed—their size, composition and disposition—must be continually reassessed and adjusted if necessary. 5. Before the U.S. commits combat forces abroad, there must be some reasonable assurance we will have the support of the American people and their elected representatives in Congress. 6. Commitment of U.S. forces to combat should be a last resort.

The Baruch Plan (chapter 12)

- Henry Stimson, who argued that the United States could not keep a nuclear monopoly for long. - such nuclear proliferation, he favored placing nuclear power under international control. - against Stimson was a group led by Secretary of State James Byrnes. Distrustful of Soviet motives and fearful of its power, Byrnes argued against any sharing of nuclear secrets. - 1945, the first international discussions about the future of nuclear power took place in Washington - This was followed by a foreign ministers meeting in Moscow in December, during which the United States, Great Britain, and the Soviet Union agreed in principle to create a United Nations (UN) - The Acheson-Lilienthal Committee issued its report in March 1946. Its fundamental conclusion supported Stimson's position. - use. In return for the United States taking this step, all other countries would agree not to develop nuclear weapons. - phrase "immediate and direct enforcement" would carry any weight. - dead." His plan gave the Atomic Energy Authority the power to inspect nuclear facilities, made it illegal to possess an atomic bomb, and allowed for the seizure of facilities o - Since a unanimous vote of all twelve members of the UN Atomic Energy Commission was needed, the plan was defeated. - The Soviet Union detonated its first nuclear device on September 23, 1949.

U.S. Interests, Challenges, and Opportunities Lecture 21 Latin America

- In the post-Cold War period, U.S. national interests in Latin America have been defined as: (1) maintenance of political stability through establishment of democracy, (2) protection of human rights, (3) good governance, and (4) effective government. Specific policies have included: (1) stopping the drug trade, (2) managing the flow of illegal immigrants, (3) deterring corruption in government, (4) discouraging the military from seizure of power. In the economic sphere, U.S. interests include reliable access to markets, minerals, materials, manpower and monetary linkages. -- Special emphasis currently is on economic growth and reduction of poverty. In the military sphere, U.S. interests include access to bases, facilities, allies, and common commitments against perceived foreign threats.

Let's first focus on nuclear weapons and their role in U.S. military strategy as a function of U.S. foreign and security policy - more interesting and compelling than conventional weapons:

- July 16, 1945 - the first atomic bomb was detonated outside Alamogordo N.M. During WWII, Albert Einstein first wrote a letter to FDR and then later met with him to express his concern that the Germans were trying to harness the power of the atom to create a new weapon. FDR realized that he could not allow such a thing to happen so he commissioned the Manhattan Project, a group of scientists who gathered together in Los Alamos, N.M., to beat the Germans in creating an atomic weapon—the Germans never were successful. Several weeks later the U.S. used this new weapon by dropping an atomic bomb on Hiroshima and then one on Nagasaki in hopes of ending the war with the Japanese. It worked and the Japanese soon surrendered. - 1949 - The Soviet Union detonated its first atomic bomb. - 1952 - The U.S. tested its first hydrogen bomb. An atomic bomb is based on fission, where a large, radioactive atom, usually Uranium-235, or Plutonium-239 is split, causing a chain reaction. Hydrogen bombs, instead, are the product of fusion, where a small atom, Hydrogen, is "fused" with another Hydrogen atom to create immense amounts of energy. Hydrogen bombs are also called thermonuclear bombs because of the intense amount of heat they produce. - 1953 - The Soviet Union tested its first hydrogen bomb. - 1957 - An important year because the Soviet Union successfully tested an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) and it launched Sputnik into orbit. An ICBM is launched into the atmosphere, travels ~ 20,000 miles an hour, and can travel from the Soviet Union to the U.S. in approximately 30 minutes. These two events were quite significant because they demonstrated to the U.S. that the Soviet Union could reach U.S. cities with nuclear weapons. Prior to this point, the primary means of delivering a nuclear weapon was by intercontinental bomber, a capability the U.S. excelled in and the USSR did not. Moreover, bombers tended to take a much greater amount of time to reach their targets, and after Pearl Harbor, the U.S. was more prepared to deal with this threat. The Soviet Union's newfound missile capability led to the idea of a "missile gap," which was the belief that the Soviets were, or soon would be, far ahead of the U.S. It turns out that no missile gap existed, except perhaps in reverse—the USSR may have tested first, but the U.S. was more skilled in actually manufacturing missiles and was way ahead of the Soviet Union in the late 1950s and early 1960s. This idea of a missile gap was similar to the previous "bomber gap" when the U.S. believed, based on faulty intelligence data, that the USSR was vastly superior in terms of bomber capability—again, not so. - By the late 1960s there was basic parity between the two superpowers. The Soviet Union was superior in ICBMs and had a quantitative advantage in terms of the size of their nuclear weapons, while the U.S. had the advantage in Submarine Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBM) and bombers and it had a qualitative advantage in terms of the accuracy and reliability of its nuclear weapons. - In the 1970s, the U.S. replaced its single-warhead ICBMs and SLBMs with Multiple Independently-targeted Reentry Vehicles (MIRVs). Simply stated, instead of only having one warhead on a launch vehicle (a rocket), the U.S. could now put 3, 6, even 10 warheads on one launcher. The U.S. pursued this technology for three primary reasons: 1. the USSR was about to equal the U.S. in the total numbers of launchers it had. 2. the USSR was working on an antiballistic missile system that could threaten the U.S.'s ability to retaliate against the USSR—could weaken deterrence. 3. MIRVing was a relatively inexpensive way to increase U.S. nuclear strength.

U.S. Nuclear Strategy

- Kennedy shared Eisenhower's belief that deterrence was the proper role for nuclear weapons. Herein exists a great irony with respect to the creation of nuclear weapons: the most powerful and destructive weapon in the history of the world (exactly what nations and rulers have always wanted) and the realization is that it can't be used—it's too powerful and destructive. - JFK realized that massive retaliation was not credible and did not take into account the Soviet Union's increasing strength. The Soviet Union had to be made to believe that the U.S. would actually use its nuclear weapons if need be; therefore, JFK actually addressed the challenge of how to fight a nuclear war. He replaced massive retaliation with flexible response. Flexible response would provide the U.S. with a range of options to choose from, not simply an all-or-nothing option that was not believable. Instead, graduated deterrence would serve as the basis for nuclear strategy, i.e., U.S. leaders could escalate and/or stop on the nuclear ladder depending on actions taken by the Soviet Union. The Kennedy administration officially incorporated three new features into U.S. nuclear thinking: 1. Emphasis was given to the use of tactical nuclear weapons in the hope that because of their less destructive nature they might be more manageable. 2. A new targeting policy was adopted that emphasized attacks on military forces and installations (counterforce targeting) instead of attacks on population centers (countervalue targeting). Again, the belief was that counterforce targeting was less provocative than countervalue targeting and, thus, could be managed. 3. Looked to civil defense (building underground bomb and fallout shelters) and damage limitation.

Policy Recommendations for 21st Century Japan

- Moderation and cooperation instead of confrontation and hostility should guide U.S. foreign policy. - Work behind the scenes rather than through public rhetoric. "Patient accumulation of partial success." Cossa - "Toward a New Pacific Strategy" Woo - "East Asia's American Problem" - Constructive Disengagement

Policy Recommendations for 21st century South Asia

- Neutral Policy - U.S. should not favor either India or Pakistan. Of course this is complicated by our relationship with China - geostrategic triangle. - Foreign Aid, Investment, and Trade - cut off military aid as well as arms sales. They would benefit more from economic aid - do so through multilateral efforts rather than bilateral. Increase private aid and investment. - Democracy and Human Rights -- U.S. has to accept that neither country has or will have Western-style democracy. - Regional Issues -- Kashmir dispute - Nuclear Issue -- Contain the growth of nuclear weapons in the region --- China has to be included (selling weapons and technology to Pakistan)

How Trade Wars End

- No single ending exists for trade wars. Rather, a number of possibilities must be considered. Five deserve particular attention: 1. One side wins 2. A draw 3. A cease fire 4. Return to a global free trade system 5. The emergence of trading blocs

The path to Mogadishu

- On October 3, 1993, a 160-person special assault team consisting of Army Ranger and Delta Force troops, nineteen aircraft, and twelve vehicles targeted the Olympic Hotel in Mogadishu, Somalia to apprehend warlord Mohamed Farrah Aidid and two of his top leaders. - The raid was expected to be completed in one hour. Instead, it became a seventeen-hour overnight battle in which eighteen U.S. soldiers died and eighty-four were wounded before being rescued by an international military force. - The path to Mogadishu began in January 1991, when Somalia's dictator was overthrown by an alliance of tribal warlords. With his removal from power, the alliance collapsed and the warlords began competing for control of the government. - In response, a cease-fire was organized by United Nations (UN), and relief efforts began. - In March 1993, the mission of UN forces in Somalia was officially changed from providing humanitarian aid to nation building and promoting stability throughout the country.

What do we mean by "intervene" or "intervention?

- One definition states that an intervention designates any activity that deliberately seeks to change the political leader(s) or the constitutional structure of a foreign political regime. An additional component is that the activity is done without the consent or against the wishes of the legally constituted or recognized authority. Note that this is different from war per se—though military intervention can certainly lead to full-scale war. Example—Vietnam. The legitimacy of intervention is also controversial. At issue is the notion of sovereignty. Intervention violates a nation-state's sovereignty. Of course, the intervening state usually asserts that it has legitimate reasons for violating another state's sovereignty. What are some of those reasons?

Policy Recommendations for 21st Century Middle East

- Peace Process - U.S. must continue its efforts to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict and bring peace to the region (possible?) - So far has done so as a mediator - may need to play a more active role - insertion of troops. - In order to have peace, abide by UN Security Council Resolutions 242 & 338: If peace is to be achieved, Arabs must guarantee peace and recognition to Israel, and Israel must give up seized territories it conquered in the '67 war. - Strengthening the UN - empower international organizations to promote collective security and economic and social welfare. Price?—both in cost and sovereignty? Will Israel comply? - Deterring wars or regional conflicts -- Confrontation is between forces of moderation and extremism -- Containment strategy now applied to Iran, Iraq, Libya (Triple containment) -- Promote democracy - not likely to succeed - Supporting allies and promoting economic prosperity -- Can be military and/or economic -- Less need for military buildup with collapse of Soviet Union - Controlling the Arms Race -- Can't allow nuclear proliferation

Middle East

- Strategic location at the hub of Africa, Asia, and Europe. - Wealth in resources - oil. - World's major religions originated in the area: Judaism, Christianity, and Islam. U.S. involvement in the Middle East began with the end of WWII when it inherited the position of France and Britain as the guardian of western interests.

Strategic Trade

- Strategic trade competes with free trade as the foundation for American international economic policy.7 - Its advocates maintain that the comparative advantages enjoyed by states in international trade is due not to a country's resource base or historical factors but to imperfections in markets that have been deliberately created by government policy - .despite positive statement such as this, strategic trade policy often crosses the line into protectionism.

ABM Treaty

- The ABM treaty limited each side to two (later modified to one) ABM site, either around the capital or an ICBM field. Neither side was allowed to develop, test, or deploy ABM components. The ABM treaty was intended to be of unlimited duration. Why did the U.S. agree to such a treaty, i.e., voluntarily limit its ability to defend the state with an ABM system? Of course, every treaty is written with escape clauses and the U.S. did so by formally abrogating the treaty in 2002, arguing that the treaty was written for and designed in an age that no longer existed. Essentially allowed the U.S. to more fully explore missile defense technology and systems. - SALT I set limits on the number of fixed launchers for ICBMs and it also set numerical limits for SLBMs. Notice that it did NOT reduce the number of weapons, it simply put in a cap or ceiling which each side could not surpass. Also, the ceilings were not equal on each side given the difference in each side's force structure—ceilings were higher in some cases for USSR. SALT I did not address theater weapons (ballistic missiles with shorter ranges), bombers, MIRVing, or cruise missiles. The treaty was of limited duration and expired in 1977. While some criticized this treaty for not doing enough to "control" the arms race between the U.S. and USSR, many considered it to be quite significant because the two superpowers actually came together and cooperated on an arms control treaty.

U.S. Nuclear Strategy

- The Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 demonstrated that deterrence wasn't as gradual as had been thought and was, instead, more absolute. Even the launching of one nuclear weapon would have been catastrophic and the fear, or realization, was that once one had been used, there was no stopping the escalation and a nuclear holocaust would ensue. - Robert McNamara, JFK's Secretary of Defense, argued that instead of fighting a nuclear war, the only role for nuclear weapons was to deter war. Therefore, emphasis had to be placed more on the ability of the U.S. to inflict widespread devastation on the Soviet Union. The concept of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) was born. - MAD ensured a second-strike capability so that each side was held hostage to the other. Moreover, it stipulated countervalue targeting, since population centers were very vulnerable. The idea was that even if the Soviet Union were to think that it could launch a first strike against the U.S., or vice versa, the U.S. could survive such an attempt and would then launch a second-strike against the USSR's population centers wherein millions and millions of people would be annihilated. Therefore, any attempt to launch a first strike was akin to committing suicide b/c each side knew that the other would be able to retaliate and would do so. - MAD served as the primary nuclear doctrine throughout most of the Cold War. Subsequent administrations altered it to one degree or another, but for the most part, it remained in force. - Ronald Reagan came to office and was not too thrilled about being "held hostage" by the Soviet Union. He felt that MAD was too risky and relied on the Soviet Union to be rational and look out for its citizen's interests, something he doubted. He also did not like the risk that was present in terms of accidental or unauthorized launches, something MAD perhaps could not address. Instead, he felt there had to be a way to defend the U.S. from nuclear weapons, as opposed to the offensive threat that MAD was based on. - So, in 1983, Reagan announced his Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), which was to be primarily a space-based defense system designed to "shoot down" and destroy incoming nuclear weapons, primarily from ICBMs and SLBMs. The system would use lasers, particle beams, and rail guns, technology that had either not yet been developed or was still in its infancy. Because the system was designed to use this futuristic technology, be space-based, and was announced in the early 1980s, the press derisively referred to SDI as Star Wars. SDI was very costly and was officially defunded by the Clinton administration in the early 1990s. - Although SDI eventually died off, that does not mean that missile defense disappeared altogether. Subsequent administrations have funded missile defense efforts to various degrees. Moreover, instead of an all-encompassing shield as proposed by SDI, new efforts at missile defense are smaller in scale with the general goal being to protect a missile silo field or a city. - Overall, the post-Cold War international arena has seen a decline in nuclear forces in both the U.S. and Russia, a point I will expound upon in the next lecture on arms control and disarmament

Cold War foreign aid

- The relative importance of military and economic aid varied considerably during the Cold War. - policy makers increasingly viewed foreign aid as an instrument for furthering American national security; more than 60 percent of foreign aid was being given for military purposes. -

Whatever policies are implemented, the U.S. needs to work with other countries if it has any hope of reducing the flow of illegal drugs into the country.

- U.S. also has to do a better job of being consistent in prosecuting drug offenders: plea bargaining, minimum sentences, early parole, etc., all send conflicting messages both domestically and internationally. - U.S. drug policy is also tied in with the economic and political conditions and policies in Latin America and East Asia.

Africa: U.S. Interests, Challenges, and Opportunities Lecture 2

- U.S. has been unable to clearly define its interests in Africa outside of the Cold War paradigm. - In addition, the political volatilities and economic vulnerabilities facing nearly every African nation complicate the ability of U.S. policy makers and the public to clearly identify strategic and economic interest in Africa. For the most part, Africa's problems are not entirely of its own making. Centuries of exploitation, colonial rule, and the international slave trade have deprived them of economic progress. - The combination of economic decline and political instability has led to increased state repression, rather than democracy.-

Into Afghanistan chapter 13

- U.S. involvement in Afghanistan began following the 1979 Soviet invasion. Carried out by some 50,000 Soviet troops, the Reagan administration saw the invasion as an attempt to increase Soviet influence in the region. - .were forced to increase their military presence to over 110,000 troops. - .Mujahideen, a loose coalition of Islamic forces, but gradually embraced a search-and-destroy strategy in an attempt to establish control over strategic areas. The strategy failed, and peace talks began in 1982. - led to soviet withdrawal in 1989

Drug Policy

- Upward of 7 million drug users in the U.S. (3% of the population) about a 1/3 of whom are cocaine addicts. The internationalization of drug trafficking has had a profound impact on the U.S. Historically, societies that have failed to cope with and deal with drug abuse were ultimately subverted and conquered. Ex. China. - Any effective drug policy would need to deal with both supply and demand issues. There are periodic calls in Congress and occasionally in the media to enlist the military in fighting drug trafficking. The military, though, doesn't think that drug-busting should be a function of the armed forces. - Because of its democratic form of government, the U.S. is often constrained in the options and methods it can pursue in drug policy

What follows is a brief historical survey of arms control and disarmament measures: 2002 -present

- With the backdrop of the U.S. withdrawing from the ABM Treaty and Russia withdrawing from START II, there was international concern over the future of continued nuclear disarmament between the U.S. and Russia. - 2002 - Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT) signed by George W. Bush and Putin. A rather surprising development given that the two of them began and concluded this treaty within a couple of days, the details of which were seemingly sketched out on a dinner napkin. In a sense, SORT bypassed START II and the never-negotiated START III treaty. Its primary provision calls for each side to reduce its warheads to approximately 1700-2200 warheads each. SORT has been criticized for three primary reasons: 1. The reductions are not required to be permanent; warheads could be placed in storage and later redeployed. 2. There are no verification procedures. 3. Reductions are required to be completed only by the end-date of the treaty, 12/31/12, as opposed to employing various phases as had been done in START I. Current arms control and disarmament measures tend to focus primarily on proliferation issues with respect to "rogue" states such as North Korea and Iran as well as other states or actors (primarily terrorist groups). Can't forget Iraq as a target of these antiproliferation efforts.

NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement)

- among Mexico, Canada, and the United States came into effect in 1994. - Nafta talks began in 1991 -President Bill Clinton signed the agreement into law on December 8, 1993. - At the core of the NAFTA agreement were provisions to eliminate most tariffs on goods traded between the three countries. Some were to be eliminated immediately, others were to be phased out over fifteen years. Particularly affected by the NAFTA agreement were agriculture, automobiles, and textiles. Other portions of NAFTA established intellectual property rights protections, labor and environmental safeguards, and a dispute resolution system. - George H. W. Bush, whose administration negotiated NAFTA, promised to negotiate labor and environmental protections in order to secure getting fast-track authority from Congress.

At the height of the Cold War when the Soviet Union was our arch enemy:

- defense planners had a 2 ½ (some argue only 2) war capacity: the simultaneous ability to fight major wars in Europe and Asia and a smaller conflict somewhere else. - To do so meant to be able to: deter and fight wars using strategic, theater, tactical, and battlefield nuclear weapons, employ large numbers of conventional forces, construct alliance systems, and make use of arms transfers, etc. - After the fall of communism and the Soviet Union, many thought that such a military force was no longer needed, and that a "peace dividend" would result. - However, by the mid-1990s it became obvious that while the Soviet Union no longer existed we still had plenty of enemies (Iraq, Iran, North Korea, etc.) as well as problem areas (Bosnia, Somalia, Rwanda, etc.) where military power was still needed or could be used to accomplish various goals.

Foreign Aid chap 11

- primary goals the areas of humanitarian assistance, development, and democratization, or is the purpose of foreign aid to advance core American national security interests? - The existence of multiple goals means that foreign aid policy often runs the risk of working at cross-purposes: foreign aid given to support governments fighting terrorism or promoting regional stability may negate efforts to promote democracy. Types of foreign aid: - remittances: private foreign aid from individuals living abroad, are now among the most important sources of funds for Third World states. - Traditional foreign aid is distributed by the State Department and affiliated agencies such as the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). Nontraditional foreign aid flows from other agencies, such as the Environmental Protection Agency, the National Institutes of Health, the Department of Energy, and most importantly, the Department of Defense. - increased importance of public-private collaboration and philanthropic foreign aid. The bottom line is that USAID, the primary source of foreign aid in the U.S. government, is now a minority shareholder in foreign aid. - 1st economic aid given for the purpose of advancing U.S. political and security objectives. This is the biggest category. Monies given in this category have supported such diverse programs as the Camp David Accords, the building of democracy, antinarcotics efforts, anti-terrorism plans, and attempts to counter weapons proliferation. - The second largest category of foreign aid is military assistance. These monies go to help allies maintain and train their armed forces, as well as fund purchases of U.S. military equipment. - The third category is bilateral development assistance. These aid programs are generally administered by USAID and have a long-term development focus on strengthening the economy, environment, health care delivery systems, and political institutions of recipient states. - The fourth category of foreign aid is humanitarian economic assistance. This aid tends to be short-term and emergency focused. Refugee assistance, emergency food aid, and disaster relief account for the bulk of this spending. - The fifth category is multilateral development assistance. The smallest segment of the foreign aid budget, it consists of funds contributed to such international development organizations as UNICEF, the World Bank, and the African Development Bank. U.S. aid to multilateral organizations - The final category of foreign aid is nonemergency food aid. The Food for Peace program, also known as PL 480, is the primary instrument for distributing nonemergency food aid. It makes surplus U.S. agricultural goods available to Third World states in local currency and at concessionary prices.

Counterterrorism

- terrorism is violence employed for the purpose of political intimidation. Where counterinsurgency strategies focus on winning the collective "hearts and minds" of the public, military-oriented anti-terrorism policies focus on taking out individual leaders and crippling terrorist organizations. The weapon of choice in combatting terrorism is air power. -

Embargo

- third economic instrument -refusal to sell a commodity to another state. Embargoes (and the more subtle concept of export controls) played an important role in U.S. Cold War foreign policy.

Humanitarian Intervention

--a case where intervention is meant to serve humanitarian, not overtly political, purposes. --one of the most notable examples is Operation Restore Hope in Somalia --Laudable as they may be, humanitarian interventions raise a host of troublesome moral, legal, and political questions: - What level of human suffering is necessary before intervention is warranted? - If intervention is necessary to relieve human suffering in Somalia, Rwanda, etc., then why not in countless other places: Sudan, Sri Lanka, Cambodia, Liberia, etc. where poverty, starvation, ethnic violence, and the inhumanity of governments toward their own people occur daily? - Is the restoration of law and order a legitimate reason to intervene? - To protect or promote democracy?

Cuban Sanctions

-When Fidel Castro came to power in 1959, Cuba was heavily dependent on the United States; 67 percent of its exports went to the United States, and 70 percent of its imports came from the United States. - Under the terms of legislation passed in 1934, the United States purchased the bulk of Cuban sugar at prices substantially above world market rates. - Relations between the United States and Castro deteriorated quickly. In February 1960, Castro concluded a barter deal with the Soviet Union in which Cuban sugar was exchanged for Soviet crude oil. - President Obama moved to restore normal diplomatic and economic relations with Cuba.

Trade agreements

1. Bilateral trade agreements: govern the terms of trade between two countries. For much of the post-World War II era, bilateral trade agreements were viewed as a second-best method for strengthening the U.S. economy and promoting U.S. interests abroad.--- that thought changed post 9/11 2. Regional trade agreements have held an uneven place in U.S. thinking about their merits in conducting international economic policy. The Historical 280Lesson and the Dateline section earlier in this chapter examined the original NAFTA agreement and the New NAFTA agreement, respectively. -- This section looks at two other recent attempts at creating regional trade agreements: the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). -- Five issues were particularly difficult, because they raised serious domestic political and economic consequences for some states: (1)The length of patents for drugs held by pharmaceutical companies. (2)Protection of the environment, wildlife, and worker rights. (3)Reduction of tariff protections by the United States, Canada, and Japan for dairy, beef, and poultry producers. (4)Opening up of TPP member automotive industries to foreign competition (with Japan being the primary target market). (5)Restrictions on trade of tobacco products (agreed to by the United States in return for an investor-state dispute mechanism

What have been and are some of the suggestions for U.S. drug policy?

1. Education - "Just Say No," DARE, TV ads, etc. 2. Drug treatment - help users stop using drugs 3. Better law enforcement - intelligence gathering, etc. 4. Seizure and confiscation - target assets of suspected/convicted drug dealers 5. Death penalty - traffickers smuggling drugs into the U.S. 6. U.S. government subsidies to farmers abroad who agree to crop substitution 7. Expanded use of the military as mentioned above - interdiction, etc. 8. Extensive spraying of drug fields 9. Decriminalization - take out the profit

Two main trade strategies

1. Free Trade - often the most overlooked of all economic instruments in FP. Definition: flow of trade based on supply and demand, free from governmental regulations, controls, promotional activities (e.g., subsidies), etc. The U.S. uses its access to its markets as an inducement to get other states to adopt policies favored by the U.S. Examples? "Power of exclusion." - Strategic or "Fair" Trade - has gained prominence over the past several decades and in principle is quite different from free trade. Definition: imposing retaliatory trade sanctions of one form or another against states engaging in unfair trading practices. Advocates of strategic or fair trade favor it to free trade because they say that the comparative advantage enjoyed by states in int'l trade is not due to a country's resource base, but to imperfections in markets that have been deliberately created by gov't. policy. Critics of strategic trade say that governments are ill-suited to identify sectors of the economy that need special attention

A Survey of Economic Instruments

1. Tariffs - a tariff is a tax on foreign-made goods entering one's country. The primary danger in using tariffs is retaliation. 2. Embargo - a ban on selling goods to another country. Played a prominent role in U.S. cold war FP. Not without controversy-many experts have debated their effectiveness, e.g., Cuba. There can also be negative ramifications, e.g., negative economic impact on ordinary citizens. 3. Boycott - refusal to buy a product(s) from another state. Again, controversy over whether they are really successful. 4. Quota - quantitative restriction on goods imported from another state. 5. Cartel - an agreement among firms or countries to restrict competition, e.g., OPEC. 6. Dumping - sales of goods in foreign markets at net unit prices below those charged to domestic consumers. 7. Devaluation/Revaluation - lowering/raising the value of a currency relative to those of other key currencies or gold. 8. Grants and loans 9. Nontariff Barriers (NTB) - restrictions on goods or services coming into a country other than those involving a tax. For example, labeling requirements, health and safety standards, license controls, etc. 10. Sanctions - penalties imposed on another state in order to coerce it into changing a policy or prevent an action from being taken. Again, debates concerning effectiveness, negative ramifications, etc.

Four common stages in the life cycle of cyber threats have been identified: .

1. The discovery of a vulnerability and the development of a cyber tool to exploit it. 2. At the introduction stage, the existence of the cyber tool is not well known. No defense is likely to exist, giving an attacker a major advantage. 344 3. Knowledge of the cyber tool is still limited in the growth stage, but it is known to exist. At this point the attacker has an incentive to use the cyber tool aggressively, since defenses will soon be developed. 4. In the maturation stage, defenses are in place and the offensive value of the cybertool steadily diminishes. At the same time, the cyber tool is no longer under tight control. It is now possessed by a large number of states and other actors, which use it for their own purposes on a wide range of targets; many of them are still vulnerable.

The following summarizes the Disengaged America perspective:

1. The major threat to U.S. national security comes from an overactive foreign policy. Events beyond U.S. borders are not as crucial to U.S. security as is commonly perceived; moreover, the United States has little power to influence their outcome. 2. The United States' responsibility to other states is minimal. The primary responsibility of the United States is to its own economic and military security. 3. The United States' responsibility to the global community is also minimal. The issues on the global agenda, especially as they relate to the Third World, are not the fault of the United States, and the United States can do little to solve them.

Conditions that Encourage Intervention

1. Unstable political order—the greater the ethnic, religious, economic, or ideological conflicts w/in a society, the greater the possibility that an external govt. (including the U.S.) will intervene to serve its own interests. 2. Political loyalties that are directed to external political entities or ideologies rather than to the nation-state's predominant political institutions and authorities. 3. During the Cold War, the nuclear stalemate forced the USSR and U.S. into using irregular warfare and subversion to ensure stability—e.g., U.S. throughout Latin America. What do we see today that is comparable in a sense? The U.S. and USSR have even developed doctrines to justify their interventionary activities: U.S. Monroe Doctrine and Roosevelt Corollary, Carter Doctrine, etc.; USSR Brezhnev Doctrine which was?

Thucydides Trap

1. View U.S.-China relations as the coming of a new Cold War. If this is true, the logical starting point for U.S. foreign policy is to replicate the policy of containment practiced during the Cold War. Those who reject this starting point argue that China and the Soviet Union are not alike, the military challenges they present differ, their level of economic interaction is much higher, and the American society supporting containment no longer exists. 2. Focus the development of policy options and challenges on how the United States and China view world politics. An often-cited obstacle to cooperation is the American sense of exceptionalism (see chapter 3), according to which the United States sees itself either as the indefensible state or the aggrieved and exploited state. Both versions place other states in a subordinate position. Similarly, many see reestablishing China's leadership role in world affairs as a driving force in its foreign policy. 3. Focus on how the United States and China approach solving foreign policy problems. In the case of the United States, the emphasis is on immediate problem solving, in which a solution is identified and put into place with the expectation that success will soon follow. China, on the other hand, is defined by many observers as having a long-term perspective. Incremental gains and the avoidance of direct conflict are seen as underlying their development of policies.

Cold War Policy Options: Pros and Cons2

1. Withdraw? - not feasible 2. Minimal contact? - also probably not feasible 3. Substantial engagement to support liberal democratic and free market system? - very feasible The question is how much and what is the best method for doing so? 4. Maximum engagement? - not likely U.S. is probably not able to assume such a large responsibility.

Several guidelines for effective diplomacy:

1.) Be realistic - it is important to have goals that match one's ability and resources. It also means realizing that similar to one's own domestic constraints, the opponent also has to deal with domestic opposition of one form or another. 2.) Be careful about what is said - the experienced diplomat plans out and weighs words carefully. Not wise to make a statement at one point and then later have to "eat" those words. Leads to a loss of "face" and/or bargaining position and power. 3.) Seek common ground, maintain flexibility, and distinguish between central and peripheral values. Avoid overly dogmatic statements. 4.) Understand the other side - several aspects:o Appreciate the opponent's perspective even if you disagree with it.o Information about the facts, personality, and point of view of the opponent is invaluable - "Know thine enemy."o As a corollary, make sure the enemy knows you because it helps to avoid costly/deadly misperceptions. Of course, doing so is quite difficult since most governments want to keep certain secrets and deny enemies, even allies at times, important and sensitive information. 5.) Be patient - can be dangerous to set deadlines, either for yourself or the opponent, unless you are in a strong enough position to follow through. Setting a deadline for the use of force, for example, means that once the deadline has passed, force must be used or you have to back down and will then be perceived as incapable of making credible threats, i.e., other actors will not respond to future pronouncements of intentions. 6.) Leave avenues of retreat open - always have an out for yourself and the opponent. Helps to "save face" and possible confrontations and conflict over the loss of it.

Five functions of diplomacy:

1.) Facilitates communication between the political leaders of states and other entities in world politics.o The most elementary function is to be a messenger.o The value of this function is especially evident when it is absent, e.g., North Korea.o However, this function has somewhat declined in importance because of the technology explosion. 2.) Negotiation of agreements - trying to find common ground among two or more divergent positions.o It is difficult for negotiation to take place when one or more of the actors is intransigent in their positions.o Also difficult when states pursue their own self-interest to the point of not recognizing the self-interest of others, or perhaps infringing on the rights of others. 3.) Gathering of intelligence or information about foreign countries or other actors. o Cannot ignore the fact that diplomats and other foreign policy representatives are constantly gathering information and assessing the strengths and weakness of enemies and allies alike.o There's a paradox in that great powers seek to deny their enemies access to information about their military capabilities, yet at the same time they try to impress their enemies with selected military information for the sake of deterrence. 4.) Minimization of the effects of friction in international relations.o Nation-states and other actors are bound to have differences of opinion and disagreements both minor and major in scale. Diplomacy, when and where present, offers the opportunity to work through disagreements in a peaceful manner.o This process is otherwise referred to as conflict management or, on a grander scale, program management. 5.) Symbolizes the existence of a society of states.o The rules by, and organizations within, which the country abides and belongs to.o In fact, "rogue" states are those states that don't seem to be able to play by the rules or who seem to wish to remove themselves from the society of states.

The study of decision making considers what kind of process decision making is, what factors influence how decisions are made, and what decisions are actually taken. Doing so is easier said than done for several reasons:

1.) First, no single decision-making process exists. As we'll see there are many competing explanations for foreign policy processes and choices. Moreover, decisions may be made by an individual, a small group, an organization, or some combination of these entities depending on which part of the process is examined. 2.) The notion of a "decision" is itself somewhat misleading. It implies that a choice is made at a specific point in time. In reality, decisions are seldom final or decisive and they tend to lack concrete beginning and end points. 3.) The relationship between the policy process and policy outcomes is imperfect. Good decision processes don't necessarily lead to good policy outcomes. Likewise, sometimes poor policy processes fortuitously result in good policy outcomes. It is true, though, that good processes tend to lead to good outcomes and we would prefer good processes even if they do not always lead to good choices.

Events in Russia help determine the role of NATO

1.There is a political vacuum because the revolution was unintended - i.e., outcome is still in doubt. A somewhat functioning democracy but ruled by Putin, a former KGB official. Also, economy is so bad, corruption so rampant, and apparent closer ties with China pressures to resort back to authoritarian/totalitarian style govt. 2. Power and bad memories, not economic logic or democracy, will dominate events. 3. The true democrats are in a district minority Notice that Haig's conception of NATO's role is based on Russia, not EU or Eastern Europe. Our actions? (1) Our approach must have a humanitarian dimension. (2) We should target economic assistance to the micro, not just macro economic policies, (3) certain geopolitical facts, as old as European history, will not change (Soviets have long been imperialist). Through NATO, U.S. must remain a military, economic, political and moral power. Thoughts on the future of NATO? Add other East European countries, Baltic States, others? Even Russia added? What will they do (can they do) if we don't add them? Eastern Europe and Russia Now has at least 27 different and separate states Different historical and cultural backgrounds Baltic states have a Western cultural background - others are more Eastern, including Muslim and Christian, etc., influences.

Africa: Policy Options: Pros and Cons

3 Views 1) Conservative - disengage from Africa altogether - Economic, geopolitical, etc. are not genuine interests. 2) Limited engagement - select a few promising nations for economic interests. 3) New activism in Africa - support democratization, development and economic initiatives - replace military assistance with economic.

Policy options: Pros and Cons Lecture 21 Middle East

5 factors to consider: (1) Domestic politics, (2) decision-making process, (3) economic variables, (4) Geopolitical variables, (5) personality traits of U.S. presidents. 1) Interest groups and Congress play a role in shaping and influencing U.S. foreign policy - American-Israeli Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) lobbies both President and Congress for managed economic and military aid for Israel -- Media also plays a role. -- Cultural and religious ties with U.S. 2.) With a pro-Israeli Congress, AIPAC, media attention to Israel, and close advisors sympathetic to Israel, it is unlikely that a president will adopt an anti-Israeli stance. 3.) Economic variables - Persian Gulf War was fought to prevent a hostile power (Iraq) from gaining control of the region's oil resources. 4) Geopolitical - strategic location - how to keep close ties with Israel while simultaneously not triggering conflicts with Arab states. 5) Presidential personalities and predisposition - Ex. Carter and right of Palestinians to live in peace and dignity. - Now instead of containing Soviets, we have to contain mischievous regional powers. - U.S. has been tempted to use force not only to defend its vital interests (Ex. Gulf War and oil) but also to enforce peace (no fly zones and protecting Kurds).

Foreign Aid

6 basic types: (1) Economic Political/Security - largest category in terms of dollars. Advance U.S. political and security objectives; (2) Military - money to allies to help them maintain and train armed forces and procure American military equipment; (3) Bilateral development assistance - generally administered by U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). General goal is to help recipient state improve economy, environment, health care delivery systems, and political institutions, e.g., Peace Corp; (4) Humanitarian economic assistance - tends to be short-term and emergency focused; (5) Multilateral Development - e.g., UNICEF, World Bank, etc.; (6) Non-emergency food aid.

What is the difference between diplomacy and foreign policy?

A British diplomat once said, "Foreign policy is what you do; diplomacy is how you do it." How you do what? Interact with other individuals, actors, and nation-states in the international arena.

Reformed America

According to proponents of the Reformed America perspective, U.S. foreign policy has traditionally been torn between pursuing democratic - ideals and empire (one power center ruling a hierarchically structured grouping of states).7 The United States wants peace—but only on its own terms; the United States supports human rights—but only if its definitions are used; the United States wants to promote Third World economic growth—but only if it follows the U.S. model and does not undermine U.S. business interests abroad. - 1. The primary threat to U.S. national security is a continued fixation on military problems and an attachment to power-politics thinking. 2. The United States' responsibility to other states is great, provided that they are truly democratic, and the United States must seek to move those that are not democratic in that direction. 3. The United States' responsibility to the global community is also great and centers on the creation of an international system conducive to the realization of traditional American values.

Back to 2nd issue - NATO - to expand or not to expand... (recently added Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic)

Alexander Haig - NATO's continuation is in the national interest Although Cold War is over, our role is not finished. Western Systems triumphed, not values per se

Global trade agreements

At the global level, free trade in the form of global trade agreements became a major U.S. foreign policy priority for the post-World War II international system. - a central role in establishing the Bretton Woods system. - core institutions was the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), which succeeded in lowering national tariffs and other barriers to free trade.

Taiwan

Brief historical background: Chiang Kai Shek etc. - Both China (PRC) and Taiwan believe that their government should speak for all of China. Neither side will accept being ruled by the government of the other. China (PRC) has stated that if Taiwan declares its independence then the PRC will invade Taiwan (Taiwan is not recognized by the international community as a sovereign nation-state). This does not prevent other nations from dealing with Taiwan as a separate autonomous country. - Challenge for the U.S. is to figure out how to simultaneously maintain friendly relations with both China and Taiwan. Taiwan Relations Act - redefined relations with Taiwan as "unofficial" and everything from weapons sales to trade, from visa procedures to cultural exchanges, must be done on an "unofficial" basis.

WMD

Collectively, chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons are referred to as weapons of mass destruction (WMD).

Compellence vs. Deterrence

Compellence more of a police task than deterrence (see chapter 12), which is a military task.

Covert Action

Covert action refers to an activity designed to produce a result in a foreign country w/o the role of the U.S. being evident. The American role should be so well concealed that it cannot be uncovered by investigatory techniques and can be plausibly denied. Typically, then, covert actions or operations are clandestine activities undertaken abroad against foreign governments, installations, or individuals with the expressed purpose of directly influencing the outcome of political events. --Conceptually different from espionage activities or intelligence gathering which are generally not designed to influence events directly. Because of the secretive nature of covert actions, detailed and reliable information about them is difficult to obtain --For many years very little was known about covert actions and the government organizations that conducted them—starting to change because of the presence of investigative journalists, congressional committees, and other oversight organizations in Congress. Several government agencies have been and are involved in covert actions: CIA is regularly involved, other organizations in the Department of Homeland Security, military units occasionally involved as well as others who support, e.g., State Department, etc. What are some of the forms of covert action? --financial support and technical assistance to political parties, support of private organizations (labor unions, business firms, etc.), covert propaganda, paramilitary or political action operations designed to overthrow or to support a regime.

Cyber war fare

Cyber warfare refers to attacks on computers or information networks.

Economic Statecraft chp 11

Defined as a deliberate manipulation of economic policy to promote the goals of the state, economic statecraft is an age-old instrument of foreign policy. - but critics often see the exercise of American economic power as a part of a foreign policy of imperialism and domination. - but critics often see the exercise of American economic power as a part of a foreign policy of imperialism and domination. 1. Day-to-day economic exchanges under the heading of free trade are generally—and incorrectly—defined to be outside the scope of economic power. 2. 274Economic power is often said to fail when it does not produce a change in policy in the target state. Underappreciated is the added cost that economic sanctions place on the target state, even without a policy change. 3. Economic power has often been judged a failure because it is examined out of context. Policy makers often turn to it when no other instruments are available or to accomplish the almost impossible, such as removing Fidel Castro from power. 4. Economic statecraft suffers because writers on world politics underestimate the importance of symbolic actions to policy makers and domestic pressure groups.

Monetary strategies

Financial transactions can also be used to further foreign policy goals. This may occur at the strategic level, such as when the United States allowed the value of the dollar to float or provided debt relief funding after the 2008 global financial crisis. It may also occur at the tactical level, such as in blocking the ability of an individual, corporation, or government to access its funds held in the United States or in other countries.

Humanitarian

Humanitarian military operations grew out of an earlier generation of efforts referred to as peacekeeping operations. Carried out by neutral UN forces, their original purpose was to provide a way to stabilize an international or domestic conflict without involving U.S. or Soviet forces or creating a situation in which one side had "lost," providing a second-best solution for each side.

The United States faces three major asymmetric conflict challenges today:

Hybrid warfare, insurgencies, and terrorism. The distinctions between them are fluid, and elements of each may be present to some degree in any given conflict situation.

Policy Recommendations for the 21st Century U.S.

Interdependence of products, markets, and investments requires an open-market policy by the U.S. NAFTA, Pacific Trade Agreement and any other new linkage that can be created can only be beneficial to the U.S. Have to work in bilateral and multilateral fashion depending on the issue.

To Intervene or Not Intervene

Is there a role for American military intervention in the NWO? --there are many views on what (if anything) should prompt intervention - Some neoisolationists argue that there are no current or prospective external threats to our interests great enough to justify intervention. - Others would use intervention to create the kind of stable and prosperous world they believe offers the greatest chance for peace and prosperity at home - Some believe that we should intervene to promote American values of democracy and human rights, as well as to relieve suffering even if there is no direct security threat to the U.S.

Disengaged America

It is a perspective most often associated with the libertarian perspective on U.S. foreign policy.23 The Disengaged America perspective sees retrenchment as necessary because the international system is becoming increasingly inhospitable to U.S. values and unresponsive to efforts at management or domination. - Optimal solutions to foreign policy problems will no longer present themselves to policy makers; even if they do, domestic constraints will prevent policy makers from pursuing such a path. - In the Disengaged America perspective, foreign policy must become less of a lance—a tool for spreading values—and more of a shield—a minimum set of conditions behind which the United States can protect its values and political processes.

Ordinary State

It now requires adjustment to a new role orientation in which the United States is an Ordinary State.3 This change in outlook is necessary, because international and domestic trends point to the declining utility of a formula-based response to foreign policy problems—be it rooted in ideology, concepts of power politics, or some vision of regional order. 1. The greatest threat to U.S. national security lies in trying to do too much and in having too expansive a definition of its national interest. 2. Responsibility to other states must be proportionate and reciprocal to that of other states to the United States. 3. The United States' responsibility to the global community is to be a good global citizen—nothing more and nothing less. .

Japan

Japan has had phenomenal economic success since the end of WWII - in large part due to U.S. support: both militarily and economically. -- Militarily: Japan agreed following WWII to cap defense expenditures at 1% of GNP. -- U.S. would supply protection Japan could focus on rebuilding its economy -- U.S. provided stable and large market for Japan's export-driven economy. Lately, the U.S.-Japan relationship has centered on economic concerns with the U.S. more and more frustrated with Japan's protectionist policies led to huge trade deficits for the U.S. What most Americans don't realize, though, is that Japanese investment in the U.S. is behind that of Great Britain, Canada, and even the Netherlands - yet no one is complaining about these countries. Japan Model - pursue economic growth through nationalist policies - protectionism. Another big issue with Japan is nuclear nonproliferation. -- U.S. and other countries want to avoid a resurgence of Japanese militarism at all costs—includes nuclear weapons.

China

Major issues are (1) regional security, (2) trade, (3) human rights, and (4) Taiwan.

Cold War Policy Recommendations for the 21st Century

Many states and areas suffering from triple crisis: nationalism, bad economic system and policies, and weak political systems. Changing for the better in some countries and regions. 1. Follow option 3. Most scholars and analysts see this option as the best, but there is disagreement in some sectors. 2. Treat each nation individually? 3. Support Russia - perhaps the most dangerous and delicate state in the region, yet probably also one of the most important, if not the most important. 4. Continued expansion of NATO: Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic already added. Fuller membership for Slovenia, Croatia, Slovakia 5. Other states in SE Europe: Bulgaria, Romania, Macedonia, former Yugoslavia and important issues/concerns - independence movements 6. Don't forget other states in the region besides Russia and former Eastern Bloc countries, a.) Central Asian States ("Stan" states) - terrorism, raw materials b.) Baltic states - continue to support c.) Ukraine, Belarus - democracy movements d.) Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan - ethnic and religious disputes

Latin America

Monroe Doctrine - basis of U.S. Foreign Policy in this hemisphere for nearly two centuries - has survived despite the end of the Cold War. - Nature of Latin America - 34 independent countries of varying size, including French, Dutch, and British influences. - Can categorize Latin America into 4 regions: North America, Central America, South America, and Caribbean.

Counterproliferation

One final arms control and disarmament strategy is counterproliferation. Unlike the other approaches outlined here, which rely heavily on diplomacy, counterproliferation historically involved the use of military force to 350deter countries from acquiring and using WMD against the United States. Today, the use of force can be extended to include cyberattacks.

GATT (WTO)

Organization that promotes freer trade among members by serving as a forum for (1) negotiating agreements to reduce tariffs and other trade barriers and (2) resolving trade disputes.

Pragmatic America

Pragmatic America perspective holds that the United States can no longer afford foreign policies on the extreme ends of the political spectrum. Neither crusades nor isolationism serve .America well. Some world problems require U.S. attention, but not all do. What is needed in U.S. foreign policy is selectivity, a strong dose of moderation in means and ends.10 To supporters of this view, the end of the Cold War vindicated a policy of moderation. 1. The primary threats to U.S. national security continue to be military in nature. 2. The United States has a responsibility to other states on a selective basis, and only to the extent that threats to the political order of those states would lessen American security. 3. The United States' responsibility to the global community is limited. More pressing is a sense of responsibility to key partners, whose cooperation is necessary to manage a threatening international environment.

Policy Options: Pros and Cons U.S.

Problem for the U.S. is that NATO, a defense-oriented organization, is the only important institution of European integration in which the U.S. retains membership. Three questions to ask concerning U.S. foreign policy toward Western Europe: 1. To what degree should U.S. policy be carried out through multilateral as opposed to bilateral institutions and methods? 2. What should NATO look like? 3. Should new structures of interactions between U.S. and Western Europe be established? Answer to first probably depends on issue and scope. Maastricht Treaty - formally authorized another institution, the Western European Union (WEU), to implement European Union decisions in the defense area. Answer to second - get to in a moment. Answer to third WTO may help resolve economic issues between U.S. and Western Europe.

Terrorism

Terrorism is a tactic of the powerless, or less powerful, directed against the powerful U.S. is concerned with both terrorist attacks directed at U.S. interests overseas as well as attacks here at home. Perhaps the main issue is how to deal with both state-sponsored and "free-lance" terrorism. Obviously, the U.S. would like to prevent terrorist acts before they happen. Easier said than done. What are some of the likely problems associated with preventing terrorist acts from occurring?

American Crusader

The American Crusader sees the United States as having won the Cold War and now being intent on enjoying the fruits of its victory as the dominant global power.15 Victory brings with it an opportunity to act on America's historical sense of mission. It builds on an important strain in the American national style that defines security in absolute terms. The objective is "unconditional surrender." 1. The international system holds real and immediate threats to American national security that must be unconditionally defeated. 2. The United States has a responsibility to help other states that are allies in its cause, because their security increases American security. 3. The United States' responsibility to the international community is great, but how that responsibility is defined is a matter for the United States to determine based on its historical traditions.

Human Rights and U.S. FP

The American response to international concerns with violations of civil and political rights has generally been to ignore them. In fact, the U.S. has been reluctant to give even its nominal and formal approval to human rights documents; although the U.S. did vote in favor of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights in 1948, but the U.S. did not sign or ratify any of the additional human rights documents during the 1950s. ---During the Eisenhower administration, the American Bar Association (ABA) opposed such documents on the grounds that human rights should be treated as domestic affairs not subject to international law. As we discussed earlier in the semester, President Carter emphasized human rights and made them a pivotal part of his FP. However, even he was not immune to the pressures of the Cold War. For example, he publicly supported the Shah of Iran in 1978, even though the Shah had a very poor record on human rights. How does, or should, the U.S. promote human rights around the globe? The chief method is through the spread of democracy. 1. Many would argue that the spread of democracy enhances national security - democratic peace argument. 2. Democratic states are the most reliable bulwark for protecting human rights, as understood from a Western legal tradition as explained above. 3. Democratic regimes tend to be, for the most part, more responsible and law-abiding members of the international community than are dictatorships. 4. Finally, the growth of the global economy is closely related to the combined effects of political democratization and free and open market-based economies.

Counterinsurgency

The US Army/US Marine Counterinsurgency Field Manual defines an insurgency as "an organized movement aimed at the overthrow of a constituted government through the use of subversion and armed conflict." - Counterinsurgency (COIN), the strategy the United States employs to defeat insurgencies, is defined by the 2006 Field Manual (FM3-34) as a protracted conflict that involves a mix of offensive, defensive, and stability 335operations. It requires that soldiers be both "nation builders as well as warriors."13 COIN is a strategy designed to get the support of the people that requires the coordinated use of military, paramilitary, political, economic, psychological, and civic actions. - Using a medical analogy, COIN operations are seen as moving through three stages: 1. Stopping the bleeding by providing the patient with emergency aid 2. Impatient care 3. Outpatient care

Iranian Sanctions

The United States has a long history of imposing economic sanctions against Iran. Carter ordered a freeze on all Iranian assets under the jurisdiction of the United States after the American embassy was seized and hostages were taken in 1979. Reagan imposed sanctions against Iran for its ties to the bombing of the marine barracks in Beirut in 1984. - Congress passed the Iran-Libya Sanctions Act (now the Iran Sanctions Act), which permitted the United States to issue penalties against foreign firms dealing with Iran. Originally set to terminate in 2001, the Iran Sanctions Act has been extended several times. - After 9/11, George W. Bush issued an executive order freezing the assets of individuals, organizations, and financial institutions supporting terrorism.

Foreign Policy Decision Making

The addition of "decision making" to foreign policy implies a focus on the people involved in the foreign policy process and on the part of the process that deals with choosing among alternative courses of action.

Quota

The fifth policy tool is the quota, a quantitative restriction on goods coming from another state. Because of GATT, quotas have not played a large role in foreign economic policy making for most of the post-World War II era. - Canada has ben the target of U.S quotas often

Rendition program

The most controversial post-Cold War covert action program became public on September 6, 2006, when George W. Bush acknowledged the existence of a rendition program; suspected terrorists were kidnapped and taken to prisons located outside the United States, where they were subjected to what he referred to as "tough" but "safe and lawful and necessary" interrogation methods. Others condemned the methods as torture. Interrogation techniques included feigned drowning (waterboarding), extreme isolation, slapping, sleep deprivation, semi-starvation, and light and sound bombardment.

America the Balancer

The starting point of wisdom from this America the Balancer perspective is that not all problems are threatening to the United States or require its involvement. The United States has a considerable amount of 361freedom to define its interests. 1. The primary national security threats to the United States are self-inflicted. They take the form of a proliferation of security commitments designed to protect America's economic interests. 2. The United States has a limited responsibility to other states, because the burden for protecting a state's national interests falls on that state. 3. The United States' responsibility to the global community is limited. American national interests and the maintenance of global order are not identical.

Trade

Trade - with over 1 billion people, China presents enormous opportunities for trade with the U.S. - While China is still a socialist country politically, its economy is becoming more and more capitalist. - China is also a large exporter to the U.S.

Africa

U.S. Africa policies have depended on the following: 1) Existing role and interests of the European powers 2) Level of Soviet influence in Africa during the Cold war 3) Perceptions of Africa—backward, etc.

East Asia

U.S. Interests, Challenges and Opportunities - Over the past two centuries, the U.S. has developed a wide range of interests in East Asia. -- Most have centered on trade as well as security concerns specific to the region. - Obviously, the sheer size of China (population) and its possession of nuclear weapons mean that the U.S. cannot ignore it. Factor in China's rapid rise in economic power and they become even more important. - Japan is also crucial given the size of its economy, our trade volume, as well as Japan's strategic location.

South Asia

U.S. Interests, Challenges and Opportunities - Value of South Asia to U.S. during Cold War was political and strategic, not economic. - U.S. has historically had a better relationship with Pakistan than with India, although India is a democracy and Pakistan is not. India had ties with the Soviet Union. ---The main reason the U.S. has to pay attention to South Asia is because of the fact that both Pakistan and India have nukes. Also need to pay attention to the Islamic factor in Pakistan. India has religious and separatist problems - Kashmir Geostrategic location of both Pakistan and India - While India is technically a democracy, it often lapses into fits of dictatorial rule. -- Economically, India presents far greater opportunities to the U.S. for trade and investment. -- Strategically, India can also be used as a buffer against China (India and China have never really gotten along)—although cannot pursue this too far b/c we would then have problems with Pakistan (Pakistan and India are historical adversaries) - The most important issue in South Asia is nuclear proliferation. -- Neither country has signed the NPT treaty -- Biggest problem is that India and Pakistan are long-time enemies - 3 wars since 1950's. -- Obviously we can't ignore two enemies with nukes pointed at each other

Policy Options: Pros and Cons Latin America

U.S. has to realize that there is wide disparity within and among Latin American states in their levels of development. Simply opening all of them up to free trade is not necessarily the best solution in all cases. It can lead to unemployment, declining wages in certain sectors, and labor unrest. In other words, cannot ignore the political implications of any given foreign policy option. U.S. has to be careful that with all of this activity in investing in Latin American countries, that they don't cause a backlash among those who resent U.S. interference. - Latin America is making progress, both politically (all democracies except Cuba) and economically (Mexico, Venezuela, etc.)

Post-Cold War

Western Europe and Eastern Europe International integration and economy-oriented competition. The U.S. and Western Europe have similar values - differences lie in economic priorities, which lead to conflicts of interest. --Security - burden sharing Relationship between U.S. and Western Europe revolves around (1) NATO, and (2) WTO (World Trade Organization). --From the former come issues now about what to do with respect to the former Soviet Union and the nations that have now broken away from the USSR and from the latter come issues concerning visions of a NWO, the nature of economic relationships, and the future of the welfare state.

U.S. Interests, Challenges, and Opportunities

Western Europe is an example of the fact that even in victory there can be many problems and frustrations. Unemployed autoworker, farmer, banker, etc. who are often negatively affected by global interdependence U.S. policymakers cannot ignore domestic interests and constituencies—and neither can other countries. Several issues have divided the U.S. and the EU Security (who is paying and who should pay more?) NATO (role of NATO now that the Cold War is over - come back to this later.) Human rights abuses - Yugoslavia and large minorities in other countries (Example: Hungarians in Germany). can lead to U.S. intervention. Economic (Example: subsidies to farmers, tariffs and quotas, monetary exchange (the new Euro), etc.) Refugees Events in world trouble spots such as the Middle East and how this affects U.S. and Western Europe (Example: oil). U.S. also faces the challenge of whether to focus on the whole of Europe, the EU, or on specific states and regions.

Windows of opportunity

Windows of opportunity, calculations by leaders that they can win, are contrasted with windows of fear, consequences of inaction so dire that leaders feel forced to try to go to war

Boycott

a refusal to buy a product or products from another state, represents the fourth economic instrument available to policy makers.

Rational choice model

also sometimes referred to as Expected Utility theory - human beings are rational and will do what is in their best interest. Their behavior is also purposeful. Rational choice theory is a normative theory, which establishes in a sense, a baseline for how decisions should be made. Several assumptions: A. Individuals know their preferences as well as the intensity of their preferences. B. These preferences are consistent, e.g., if A is preferred to B, then it cannot follow that B is preferred to A—unless new information is received concerning A and B. C. These preferences are also transitive, e.g., if A is preferred to B, and B is preferred to C, then it follows that A must be preferred to C. D. Individuals know the alternatives that are available. E. Individuals have access to information about the consequences of selecting each alternative. F. Individuals are able to calculate the probability of achieving a particular outcome - the probability that a given chosen alternative or course of action will succeed G. Individuals are then able to combine information concerning their preferences with the probability of alternatives succeeding to produce an expected utility of choosing any particular course of action or alternative. H. Individuals will then select the alternative that has the highest expected utility, i.e., they maximize utility, meaning they choose the "best" option.o However, many scholars have challenged these assumptions on several grounds: The primary critique is that individuals face constraints both personally and with respect to the environment in which they operate. As human beings, we are simply cognitively incapable of completing all the calculations stipulated by rational choice theory: forming preferences, assessing probabilities of alternatives succeeding, combining these two together, then maximizing, etc. It's simply too much and we simply do not make decision in this manner. Added to our own personal shortcomings, the decision environment may also pose constraints in terms of available time (time pressure), imperfect information, lack of information, or even too much information, as well as the complexity of the information, etc. More specifically, decision makers do not necessarily maximize utility. As Nobel scientist Herbert Simon argued, decision makers instead satisfice, which means that a decision maker searches for an acceptable choice, one that is good enough to meet a minimal set of requirements. Individuals are still rational, just boundedly so. Individuals may not necessarily have preferences, and they may not be able to calculate probabilities, etc. In response to these problems, scholars have suggested alternative decision-making models to rational choice.

Once nuclear weapons were created and deployed, the U.S. and Soviet Union realized that perhaps they had opened the proverbial Pandora's Box and that they needed to do something to contain this new destructive power. During the Cold War, two strategies were pursued:

arms control and disarmament.

Regional Security

as the most powerful nation in the region, China is best suited to help. Specifically, China can help the U.S. deal with North Korea as well as any other nation-state that may want to cause problems (besides the problems they, themselves, cause).

Economic internationalism

associated with terms such as capitalism, Laissez-faire, economic liberalism, and free trade. - The main thrust of economic internationalism is to separate politics from economics. Naturally, they oppose tariffs and other trade barriers as well as government subsidies and the like. - Classic economic liberalism would take the state completely out of economic control. Adhere to Adam Smith and his notion of the invisible hand, i.e., the economy is self-regulating. This type of capitalism has few adherents today. Instead, most modern economic liberals favor using the state to ensure that competition and the unequal distribution of wealth don't get out of hand. They do so by using intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) to help regulate international economic exchange, e.g., IMF, WTO, etc. Still, though, less interference and regulation is preferable.

Economic nationalism

associated with terms such as mercantilism and strategic or fair trade. The core of the economic nationalist doctrine is the idea that the state should harness and use the country's economic strength to further national interests. By extension, economic nationalists also advocate using a state's power to build its economic strength and otherwise advance its economic interests. Those who subscribe to this approach are not, and cannot be, true capitalists. Capitalism holds that business and the economic sector should proceed largely or completely unimpeded by government. In contrast, economic nationalists want to interfere in, some even want to control, the economy in the interest of the state. Economic nationalism has been and remains very much part of the policies of all nation-states. What are some of the ways in which mercantilist practices are evident both historically and currently? 1. Imperialism and neoimperialism - imperialism has for the most part disappeared but many claim that neoimperialism (indirect control) continues to exist. 2. Economic incentives and disincentives - the use of carrots and sticks to promote the state's national interests. 3. Protectionism and domestic economic support - suspicious of imports of goods and services which promote interdependence on the grounds that such policies undermine state sovereignty and weaken the national economic strength. Would tend to favor erecting trade barriers to foreign competition in order to protect national industries. Also favor granting government subsidies to important national industries. 4. In short, economic nationalism requires government interference with the economy through economic barriers and/or through internal incentives.

Bureaucratic Politics model

bargaining along regularized channels among players positioned hierarchically within the government.o - Decisions are not the result of rational behavior; instead, choices are the outcomes of bargaining games.o - It is perhaps best explained by the saying, "Where you stand depends on where you sit," meaning that the Secretary of State will generally prefer diplomatic options, while the SecDef will tend to prefer more forceful solutions, and political advisors will favor whatever helps the president politically. - Foreign policy decision making is the result of "pulling and hauling" among various participants in the decision-making process.

covert action

covert action is conducted in secret. It seeks results by altering the internal balance of power in a foreign state. As is the case with cyber operations, a great deal of confusion exists over its fundamental characteristics. In popular usage, covert action is all but synonymous with secret paramilitary operations. Forms of covert action: 1. support for individuals or organizations 2. propaganda 3. economic operations 4. paramilitary

Economic Sanctions

economic sanctions: "the deliberate withdrawal of normal trade or financial relations for foreign policy purposes."12 It is important to recognize that sanctions are "not forever." They are intended to bring about change in targeted countries, and when that is accomplished, they are to be removed. - One problem is the pursuit of incompatible goals. - second problem is that economic sanctions are often imposed because policy makers find themselves needing to demonstrate resolve when they are unwilling or unable to use military force. - third problem is the response by other countries. Often described as black knights, some states provide economic support to the sanctioned country for political reasons, which lessens sanction effectiveness.

genocide

genocide, as one group seeks to eliminate another ethnic group from its territory.

definition of diplomacy

he art of telling someone to go to hell in such a way that they actually look forward to the trip." Kidding aside, diplomacy involves direct, government to government interactions, acting upon the people in other governments who are able to do the things we want their states to do. We could, of course, broaden this definition to include other actors besides the governments of nation-states. Diplomacy can be considered the central technique of foreign policy implementation, the only truly direct technique.

How is diplomacy carried out?

he diplomat always seeks to reason or persuade rather than to bully or threaten. Is this pattern necessarily true? Perhaps not as history shows that on numerous occasions diplomats have had to make threats, etc. to deter other actors from pursuing particular courses of action. It is probably fair to say that constant or excessive bullying and threatening is likely to be counterproductive.

Models of foreign policy decision making

help scholars, students, etc. describe, explain, predict and evaluate how U.S. foreign policy is made. Models are analytical tools designed to serve as a simplified representation of reality. - We cannot say, however, that decision makers choose to implement one of these models of foreign policy decision making, anymore than we can say that each of us chooses a decision model with respect to our daily decisions in life. - We also cannot say that these models are right or wrong—they are only useful or less useful in helping us explain foreign policy decision processes and choice. - kinds: rational choice model, organizational process model, bureaucratic politics model, small group decision making, elite theory and pluralism

Economic structuralism

holds that the conduct of world politics is based on the way that the world is organized economically. Familiar theme of haves and have-nots, and that the haves exploit the have-nots. Marxism and dependency theories are common approaches in economic structuralism.

Cold War: Dean Acheson argued that America's containment policy had to have a military component led to NATO in 1949

initially an American nuclear umbrella placed over Western Europe. When West Germany was added to NATO, USSR's response was to form the Warsaw Pact, including the militarization of East Germany. U.S. also wanted the West European economies to be successful as well and to do so they encouraged integration. "dumbell theory" - two large economic entities, U.S. and Western Europe linked by NATO would emerge to successfully counter Soviet power in Europe. Also led to Marshall Plan - $14 billion in economic aid (that's $100 billion in today's dollars!!). Up until the end of the Cold War, most U.S. FP regional objectives were designed to confront communism: containment or rolling back etc. Ex. through SEATO and CENTO.

Irredentism

irredentism, where a state reaches out and tries to bring its kin group into the state by expanding its boundaries.

Tariff

is a tax on foreign-made goods entering the country. Typically, tariffs are applied either to protect domestic industry against foreign competition or to raise revenue, but they can also be manipulated to serve foreign policy goals.

peacemaking

is often used to describe the challenge facing the intervening military forces.

Direct Foreign Investment (DFI) versus Portfolio Investment

main purpose is to facilitate economic development - DFI can take the form of multinational corporations (MNC), joint ventures, branches, affiliates, and partnerships. DFI actually enters the developing (or developed for that matter) country and creates and operates production facilities. Different from portfolio investment, which involves the purchase of stocks, bonds, and other financial assets. ---The positives of DFI can include contributions of capital (money), jobs, taxes, credit, skills, training, modern technology, export opportunities, and ties with the global economy ---The negatives of DFI can include the exploitation of local capital and labor, a brain-drain of local talent, tax avoidance and transference, unusual advantages over local industries/companies, and distorted pricing of imports.

Non tariff barriers (NTB)

nontariff barriers (NTBs) to trade is a second policy option. NTBs are a modern variation on traditional tariffs and can range from labeling requirements, health and safety standards, and license controls to taxation policy; they have become powerful tools to protect firms from foreign competition or remedy a balance-of-payments problem. - U.S. use of NTBs dates from the 1930s, when the Buy American Act required the government to purchase goods and services from U.S. suppliers if their prices were not unreasonably higher than those of foreign competitors.

In text book pay attention to:

pages 87-93

Small group decision making, elite theory, and pluralism

please read your textbook concerning these decision-making models. - Another important model with a slightly different focus is Groupthink. o - Groupthink is a theory or model of defective decision making. More specifically, groupthink addresses defective decision making on the part of a cohesive decision-making group in which loyalty to real or perceived group norms takes precedence over independent, critical judgment.o - Two types of conformity: 1.) Conformity from group pressure on the individual. Direct pressure from members of the group against dissenters, usually from the emergence of self-appointed "mindguards." 2.) Conformity from stress-induced cohesion. Time pressure may cause members of the group to withhold dissenting opinions for the sake of reaching consensus on a decision.o - What are the consequences of groupthink and its resulting defective decision making? 1.) Incomplete survey of alternatives. 2.) Incomplete survey of objectives. 3.) Failure to examine risks of preferred choice. 4.) Failure to reappraise initially rejected alternatives. 5.) Poor information search. 6.) Selective bias in processing information at hand. 7.) Failure to work out contingency plans.o - Just because a decision turns out to be a mistake, and was made by a group, does not necessarily mean that groupthink existed. In other words, group decisions can be flawed for reasons other than groupthink.o - Perhaps the most famous example of groupthink is the Bay of Pigs invasion (often referred to as a fiasco) in 1961 in the JFK administration.

Separatism

separatism, where one ethnic group seeks to leave a state and form a new one in order to better protect itself.

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA),

signed in July 2015, placed limits on Iran's stockpiles of enriched uranium, and called for a reduction in UN nuclear related sanctions and U.S. sanctions against other countries fordoing business with Iran.

Human Rights

this is very rarely a single-issue consideration. i.e., usually coupled with trade and/or military technologies transfers. Of course, the big question is should it be? One argument is that trade privileges (Ex.: MFN—now referred to as PNTR, Permanent Normal Trading Relations) should not be granted or extended unless China improves its record on human rights (including/excluding Tibet question). In other words, using the stick instead of the carrot. The other argument is that withholding trade will not "cause" China to improve its human rights record and will only lead to unnecessary hostilities (instead, increased trade will bring about an improved, albeit slowly, record on human rights.). Behind this argument is the sovereignty issue - we shouldn't be interfering in China's internal affairs. - Where one falls on this issue depends partly on how one views the world - realist vs. idealist. - Business diplomacy - bringing about improvements in human rights conditions in China through trade . - Discuss MFN (PNTR) status and link to human rights in china -- MFN means that the tariff preferences granted to one nation must be granted to all other nations exporting the same product - nondiscrimination. -- Actually, nation-states such as China are not repeatedly "granted" MFN status - they already have it but could have it taken away - is a "big deal." PNTR simply solidifies the trading relationship and makes it harder to revoke China's privileges b/c of human rights violations. Discuss.

Organizational Process mode

views foreign policy as organizational output.o - One of the key concepts of the organizational process model is that of Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs), which are routinized courses of action. In every government organization there are SOPs, which help determine how the actors in that organization may/will behave. Organizations do not attempt to estimate the probability distribution of future outcomes, as rational choice theory states. Instead, they avoid uncertainty by having and resorting to these SOPs.o - This model is clearly grounded in the notion that decision makers are boundedly rational. Because of numerous constraints such as time pressure, cognitive effort, and cognitive skills, which result in an individual's or group's inability to maximize, they instead satisfice (instead of optimizing, they look for alternatives that are good enough).o - The best explanation of an organization's behavior at time t is t-1, and the best prediction of behavior at t+1 is t.

Coercive diplomacy

which adversaries engage in hostile actions that fall just below the level of overt military conflict. - .