SCM 515 Final

Network Techniques

--PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) Mostly used for R&D projects/more D --CPM (Critical Path Method)/ mostly for construction projects Originally, PERT was strictly oriented to the time element of projects and used probabilistic activity time estimates to aid in determining the probability that a project could be completed by some given date. CPM, on the other hand, used deterministic activity time estimates and was designed to control both the time and cost aspects of a project, in particular, time/cost trade-offs.

Precedence Diagramming

--an AON network method that easily allows for leads and lags within the network. E.g. the following restrictions: Finish to Start - Activity 2 must NOT start before Activity 1 has completed Start to Start - An activity can not begin until its predecessor has been underway for a specified amount of days. Finish to Finish - A predecessor activity must be complete before a specified amount of days before the successor activity can be completed. Start to Finish - An activity cannot be completed before a specified amount of days after the begin of the predecessor activity.

//////Types of Control and responses

1. Cybernetic control - means steer. Focuses on the outputs. First order - focus on the outputs. Standards are fixed. Second order - system constantly monitored. When a deviation is spotted, corrective action is taken. It has a negative feedback loop (it acts to reduce deviation from standard by placing efforts in the opposite direction to correct differences from standards).Standards vary according to a fixed set of rules. Third order - Second order - system constantly monitored. When a deviation is spotted, corrective action is taken. It has a negative feedback loop (it acts to reduce deviation from standard by placing efforts in the opposite direction to correct differences from standards).Standards vary according to a variable set of rules. 2. --Go/No-Go control-- -First Testing to see if some preset condition has been met Most of project management is go/no-go Use cannot be based on the calendar. Some will take place at milestones, some will take place when work packages are completed, others will be on-going. -Second Data to be collected will match the critical elements of the project plan Actual is compared to what was expected in the plan Regular reports are given to the PM and senior management -Phase-Gated Processes Controls the project at various points throughout its life cycle Most commonly used for new product/service development projects Project must pass gate to continue funding 3. -Post control- Controls that are applied after the fact Purpose is to mainly improve the performance on future projects Usually a final report is prepared comparing the plan with reality Sometimes called "lessons learned" Benefits future projects more than the present one

Telltale signs of project trouble to monitor

1.Muddy Waters. Project plan is often the starting point for project trouble, especially if it is unduly long or confusing in its goals, scope, deliverables, and processes. 2.Mysterious stakeholders: full and detailed stakeholder descriptions and analysis is key to avoiding late problems and delays. Incomplete documentation of all stakeholders is a majors risk for any project. 3.Unconstrained constraints: knowing how much leeway there is in your schedule and budget for each task, and where delays or cost overruns can be made up, keeps a project out of trouble. 4.Suspicious Status Reports: Status reports that are unclear, inconsistent, late, or lack specific measures are a red flag for coming trouble. Vague or overly optimistic language like "very soon" or "marginal increase" in costs also indicate trouble ahead. 5.Discord and Drama: Unhappy team members can cause major trouble in the project, though hard to detect early on. Meeting minutes can show team members who are consistently missing, have low participation or seem to have excessive objections and complaints.

////////The termination process

1.Termination by extinction 2.Termination by addition 3.Termination by integration 4.Termination by starvation 1.Extinction Extinction occurs in any scenario where the project goes away and is not extended in some form Successful, Unsuccessful, Changes in environment, Take too long, Murder When work on a project stops, some organizational work continues When a decision is made to terminate a project by extinction, the most noticeable event is that all activity on the substance of the project ceases 2.Addition If a project is a major success, it may be terminated by institutionalizing it as a formal part of the parent organization Project personnel, property, and equipment are often simply transferred from the dying project to the newly born division Applies to an in-house project While the project goes away, project personnel and assets are transferred to the new business 3.Integration The most common way to terminate a project The project comes into the business It is absorbed (distributed) into the existing structure That structure absorbs the assets of the project 4.Starvation Termination by starvation involves greatly reducing the budget of a project Used when it is politically dangerous to cancel a project Reallocation of Resources Away from Project Business conditions, political considerations, active w/o activity

///////Fundamental reasons for project failure

A project organization is not required Insufficient support from senior management Naming the wrong person as project manager Lack of customer support Poor Planning Technical Reasons Adequate human resources, tools, or material are not available The project profit becomes significantly lower than expected, due to too high project cost or too low project revenue

////////Different ways a project can terminate:

All projects end... The objectives have been completed, or It no longer makes sense to continue Project termination need not necessarily mean project failure or premature abandonment. It is a situation when a given project is supposed to be closed or finalized because there's no more need or sense for further continuation. A project may be terminated for a variety of reasons, including: -Successful completion of the endeavor. -Some teams move on to other projects -Other times, members go their own way The client may be happy, mad, or anywhere in between Failure and Success are two basic reasons for terminating projects.

Earned Value Analysis

An approach for monitoring project progress that relies on the budgeted cost of activities completed to ascribe value. The earned value chart depicts schedule progress, actual cost, and actual progress (earned value) to allow the determination of spending, schedule, and time variances.

Burnup and Burndown Charts

Burndown chart is created with scope on the vertical axis and time on the horizontal axis. The remaining work that needs to be completed to finish the project at various points in time is plotted on the chart which creates a downward sloping line. The slope of the plotted line corresponds to the rate of progress with a steeper line being associated with a greater rate of progress. A burnup chart contains the same axes as the burndown chart, but two different lines are plotted on it. The first set of data plotted is the amount of work completed to date, and the second set of data is the total amount of work yet to be completed. Both the burnup and burndown charts provide the PM with a straightforward approach for monitoring and communicating overall project progress. Choice is matter of personal preference.

Crashing a Project

Crashing a project means to throw additional resources at the critical path without necessarily getting the highest level of efficiency To speed up, or expedite a project Of course, the resources to do this must be available Crunching a project changes the schedule for all activities Crunching a project often introduces unanticipated problems Using additional resources does not always guarantee better results Reducing critical activities completion time Time and costs are interrelated Faster an activity is completed, more is the cost Change the schedule and you change the budget Thus many activities can be speeded up by spending more money This will have an impact on schedules for all the subcontractors

////Controlling Creative Activities

Creativity is hard to control Too much control will stifle creativity Three general approaches -Process Review - focus on the process of reaching outcomes, not on the outcomes -Personnel Reassignment - reassign those who do not produce to other jobs -Control of Input Resources - focus on efficiency (efficiency is not creativity, but creativity is not inefficiency!

ETC and. EAC

ETC is Estimated Cost to Complete, and it is how much more money you expect to spend to complete the remaining work on the project. EAC is Estimated Cost at Completion, and it is how much you expect the project to cost (total budget) when it's complete.

//////The Characteristics of good Control Systems

Flexible Cost effective Useful Ethical Timely Accurate Simple Easy to maintain Fully documented

Report Types

For the purposes of project management there are three distinct types of reports: routine, exception, and special analysis. Routine reports are those issued on a regular basis; exception reports are useful for decision making and they are issued prior or post a decision has been made to inform other managers and to document a decision; special analysis report are used to disseminate the results of special studies conducted as part of the project or as a response to special problems that arise during the project.

Forms of data collection

Frequency counts - Tallies of occurrences of events. Often used for complaints, number of times an event happens, days without a specific event, similar items. This data is usually easy to collect and is often reported as events per unit time or events as a percent of a standard number. Raw numbers - dates, dollars,hours, physical amounts of resources used, and specifications are usually reported this way., often reported as direct comparisons with an expected or standard number. Also, variances. Subjective numeric ratings - subjective estimates, usually of a quality, made by knowledgeable individuals or groups. Indicators: used when the PM cannot measure some aspect of system performance directly he finds an indirect measure or indicator Verbal measures example "quality of team member cooperation","morale of team members".

Constrained Resource Scheduling methods

Heuristic Approach An approach, such as a rule of thumb, that yields a good solution that may or may not be optimal Optimization Approach An approach, such as linear programming, that yields the one best solution

//////Ancillary goals of the project

Improve understanding of the ways in which projects may be of value to the org Improve the processes for organizing and managing projects (maturity in PM) Provide information and experience for entering new markets Provide a congenial environment in which project team members can work creatively together Identify organizational strengths and weaknesses in project-related personnel, general management, and decision making techniques and systems Identify and improve the response to risk factors in the firm's use of projects Allow access to project policy decision making by external stakeholders Improve the way projects contribute to the professional growth of project team members Identify project personnel who have high potential for managerial leadership

//////When to Terminate a Project

It may be easy to terminate a project that is finished But it can be very difficult to terminate a project prior to its completion. It causes frustration for those stakeholders who sincerely believed - and in most cases still believe -- that the project could produce the results they expected, or still expect.

Gantt (Bars) Charts

Oldest method of presenting project schedule information. Shows planned and actual progress for a number of tasks displayed as bars against a horizontal time scale. --helps decide where to allocate resources --More useful to demonstrate senior management progress of project than managing project//

//////Elements of the final report

One of the major aims of termination is development and transmittal of "lessons learned" to future projects One way to do that is through a project history The final report is the history of the project The precise organization of the report is not of great concern; the content is Several Subjects should be addressed in the final report= Project performance (What was achieved; successes, challenges, failures) Administrative performance (Reports, meetings, project review procedures, HR, financial processes) Organizational structure (How structure evolved, how it aided/impeded progress) Project and administrative teams (Performance of the project team, recommendations) Techniques of project management (Planning, budgeting, scheduling, risk management, what worked what did not ...) For each element covered in the final report, recommendations for changing current practice should be made and defended Equally important are comments and recommendations about those aspects of the project that worked unusually well The fundamental purpose of the final report is to improve future projects

Fast-Tracking

Overlapping the design and build phases of project Fast tracking is when you look at activities on a schedule that are normally done in sequential order and instead try to work on them in parallel. That is, working on sequential activities in parallel Fast-tracking is another way to expedite a project Mostly used for construction projects Can be used in other projects Refers to overlapping design and build phases Increases number of change orders Increase is not that large A good rule of thumb is that sequential activities can sometimes be fast-tracked by up to 33% In other words, if you're fast-tracking, you can start the second of two sequential activities when the first activity is 66% complete

Differences between CPM and PERT

PERT is typically used to manage the uncertain activities within a project, which is why it often works well in research-based environments where the outcomes are uncertain. CPM, on the other hand, is used to oversee the well-defined activities of a project. PERT works best for jobs or activities that are non-repetitive in nature, whereas CPM is the opposite. It is typically best for repetitive jobs where the outcome or result is predictable or known. CPM and PERT both treat time and cost differently. In PERT, time is the major factor that is controlled and monitored. Cost is not considered. CPM is a method that controls both time and cost and evaluates the time-cost trade-off for activities within the project. Unlike PERT, CPM provides only a one-time estimate, which is possible because CPM deals with activities that are repetitive in nature and have known outcomes

Problems due to availability of project management software

PMIS= software application Computer paralysis. Loss of touch with the project and its realities PMIS verification needed. Verify that real problems exist Information overload. Too many reports, too detailed Project isolation. PMIS reports replacing useful communication between PM and management Computer dependence - Reactive instead of proactive because of reliance in computer PMIS misdirection - some subareas are overmanaged, and other subareas receive inadequate attention.

/////Balance in a Control

Placing too much weight on easy-to-measure factors Emphasizing shorter-run results at the expense of longer-run objectives Ignoring changes in the environment or goals Overcontrol by the top management "If it is not measured, it is not important"

//////Dimensions of success

Project efficiency -meeting both budget and schedule Customer impact/satisfaction - meeting the project's technical and operational specifications Business/direct success -level of commercial success and market share Future potential - difficult to evaluate -opening new market, developing new line

Resource Loading

Resource loading describes the amount of resources an existing schedule requires Gives an understanding of the demands a project will make of a firm's resources Resource loading mainly involves your manpower or employees In resource loading each employee is assigned a task or a percentage of a project (X percent of the whole). Usually, it's 25 percent of the whole. Then the employee is assigned other tasks until he or she reaches 100 percent booked The downside to resource loading is that employees cannot be 100 percent booked. Other things may arise to take away their time, such as unexpected problems that need to be fixed. An employee should always be under 100 percent booked

//////The purpose of formal change control system

Review all changes Identify all task impacts Translate impacts into scope, cost, and schedule Evaluate the benefits and costs Identify alternative changes Accept or reject Communicate Ensure implementation Report

The Resource Allocation Problem

Scheduling processes in PERT/CPM focuses on time assignment rather than allocation of physical resources CPM/PERT ignore resource utilization and availability With external resource utilization and availability It is, however, a concern with internal resources Schedules need to be evaluated in terms of both time and resources Types of resources should be addressed: Direct resources and their specific amount Indirect resource for enabling to use direct resources (shadow resources) Time (cannot save and store it, but can spend more or less of it) --Time Use and Resource Use-- Time limited: A project must be finished by a certain time Resource limit: A project must be finished without exceeding some specific level of resource usage Overdetermined: when time, cost, and scope are fixed

///////Project Success & Failure

Success: a project reaches success when its goals and objectives are accomplished on time and under budget, deliverables are produced as expected by stakeholders, and the final product is accepted by and handed over to the customer (end-user) Failure: a project is regarded as failed when its requirements are not met; the customer refuses accepting the product; technical issues that can't be resolved by using existing tools and technologies; an unanticipated loss or lack of human, funding and other valuable resources; the project effort becomes counterproductive because initial goals and objectives are unmet.

Conventions for estimating progress at the task level:

The 50-50 Rule - Fifty percent completion is assumed when the task is begun, and the remaining 50 percent when the work is complete. Generous at the beginning, excessively conservative toward the end of tasks. The 0-100 percent rule. This rule allows no credit or work until the task is complete. HIghly conservative. Critical input use rule. This rule assigns task progress according to the amount of a critical input that has been used. The proportionality rule. This rule is based on proportionalities, but uses time (or cost) as the critical input. It divides actual task time-to-date by the scheduled time for the task (or actual task cost-to-date by total budgeted task cost)to calculate percent complete.

Early Finishes and Late Finishes Cancel Out?

The answer is generally "no" Why? Workers won't admin to finish early Resources may not be available

Goldratt's Critical Chain

The critical chain method is a technique that modifies the project schedule to account for limited resources by adding duration buffers that are non-work schedule activities to maintain focus on the planned activity durations. Critical chain is completed after determining critical path by entering resource availability and the resulting schedule produces a resource-constrained critical path, which is usually altered from the original. Critical chain focuses on managing remaining buffer durations against the remaining durations of task chains. -Execution - Priorities: A resource with more than one task open should normally be assigned to complete any task jeopardizing any project's Critical Chain before completing any feeding path task [Critical Chain has priority] Completion: When there is work available it should be progressed at the fastest possible speed (without compromising quality) until completed -Review - Buffer Management: The amount each buffer is consumed relative to project progress tells us how badly the delays are effecting our committed delivery date. If the variation throughout the project is uniform then the project should consume its project buffer at the same rate tasks are completed. The result is a project completed with the buffer fully consumed on the day it was estimated and committed Remaining duration: Tasks are monitored on their remaining duration, not their percentage complete. If the remaining duration stays static or increases, then Project Managers and Resource Managers "watching the buffers" know exactly where a blockage or potential delay is occurring and can take decisive action quickly to recover Main features that distinguish critical chain from critical path are: Use of (often implicit) resource dependencies vs activities dependencies in CP Identification and insertion of buffers: Project buffer Feeding buffers Resource buffers (companies are usually reluctant to give more resource) Monitoring project progress and health by monitoring the consumption rate of the buffers rather than individual task performance to schedule

//////The Fundamental Purposes of Control

The regulation of results through the alteration of activities. (PM is the regulator of the project activities and must protect its project assets, Human resources, and financial resources. The Stewardship (the care, handling, and management) or organizational assets.

//////Timing of The Project Audit

There should be audits early in the project's life. The sooner a problem is discovered, the easier it is to deal with. Audits done early are useful to the project. Adits done later in the life cycle are of value to the parent organization.

Heuristic Methods

They are the only feasible methods used to attack large projects While not optimal, the schedules are very good Take the CPM/PERT schedule as a baseline and analyze resource usage period by period, resource by resource They sequentially step through the schedule trying to move resource requirements around to levelize them Resources are moved around based on one or more priority rules The heuristic can either start at the beginning and work forwards Or it can start at the end and work backwards Many of the heuristics are extensions of the ones used for one project Multi-projects are too complex for optimization approaches

Metrics to measure the effectiveness of any resource allocation

Three important parameters affected by project scheduling are: --Schedule slippage (it is the act of missing a deadline)-- The time past a project's due date Slippage may cause penalties Different projects will have different penalties Expediting one project can cause others to slip Taking on a new project can cause existing projects to slip To mitigate schedule slippage it is to: Identify root causes of the schedule slippage: it could happen because of poor or ambitious time estimation done on the planning phase, ambiguous project requirements, interpersonal conflicts in the team, and many other factors Forecast a likely delivery date: for example utilizing CPM (Critical Path Method) that will help you in identifying slack (possible leeway) of the tasks Address the identified causes and rectify these problems effectively. Identify some methods to neutralize/mitigate the schedule slippage: for example by adding more resources to make some critical tasks completed faster, or by making some trade-offs Negotiation with the project customers to communicate and discuss the current situation --Resource utilization-- The percentage of a resource that is actually used Excess resource utilization and uncoordinated multi-project scheduling can be expensive We want a schedule that smoothes out the dips and peaks of resource utilization This is especially true of labor, where hiring and firing is expensive Utilization vs Efficiency --In-process inventory-- This is the amount of work waiting to be processed because there is a shortage of some resource Similar to WIP in manufacturing Holding cost is incurred The organization (or the project manager) must select the criterion most appropriate for its situation

Uncertainty of Project Completion Time

When discussing project completion dates with senior management, the PM should try to determine the probability that a project will be completed by the suggested deadline—

Resource Leveling

While resource loading mainly deals with manpower, resource leveling deals with both time (project starting and ending date) and resources, including manpower and budget It is a (project management) "technique in which start and finish dates are adjusted based on resource constraints with the goal of balancing demand for resources with the available supply". Resource leveling is the part of the scheduling process in which the start and end dates of tasks are driven by resource limitations (feasible vs infeasible schedule) Like resource loading, resource leveling also has its problems. It is hard to determine in the beginning which tasks will be on the critical path. Also, delaying a task could cause the entire project to fall behind schedule Less hands-on management is required May be able to use just-in-time inventory Improves morale Fewer personnel problems When an activity has slack, we can move that activity to shift its resource usage May also be possible to alter the sequence of activities to levelize resources Small projects can be levelized by hand Software can levelize resources for larger projects Large projects with multiple resources are complex to levelize --Resource Loading/Leveling and Uncertainty-- Resource availability, needs, etc may fluctuate over time such that resources required and capacity available may not be constant Methods to address this issue: Attempt to level demand Alter supply of human resource availability Disruptions, emergencies, maintenance, personnel issues, inefficiencies Schedule scarce resources between 85-90% capacity

Calculating Activity Times

it is vital to good project management to be meticulously honest Found by using the three time estimates (optimistic, pessimistic, and most likely). These are an expression of the risk associated with the time required for each activity. Formula: TE = (a + 4m + b)/6 Variance == ((b-a)/6)^2