SCM Quiz 6 Chapter 4
coefficient of correlation
A measure of the strength of the relationship between two variables is referred to as the A. coefficient of determination. B. coefficient of correlation. C. standard error of the estimate. D. standard deviation of the estimate.
41.2 ; 41.96 ; the check-processing center should observe seasonality in its processing requirements.
A check-processing center uses exponential smoothing to forecast the number of incoming checks each month. The number of checks received in June was 38 million, while the forecast was 42 million. A smoothing constant of 0.20 is used. a) Using exponential smoothing and given alphaα, the forecast for the month of July = ? million checks received (round your response to one decimal place). b) If the check-processing center re ceived 45 million checks in the month of July, then using exponential smoothing and given alphaα, the forecast for the month of August = ? million checks received (round your response to one decimal place). c) Exponential smoothing may not be an appropriate method to use for the check-processing center because: A. the check-processing center's forecast is very hard to make as its processing requirements should have a very high variability. B. the check-processing center should observe seasonality in its processing requirements. C. the check-processing center should observe a cyclical trend in its processing requirements. D. the check-processing center should observe an increasing trend in its processing requirements.
41.6; 42.1; the check-processing center should observe seasonality in its processing requirements.
A check-processing center uses exponential smoothing to forecast the number of incoming checks each month. The number of checks received in June was 40 million, while the forecast was 42 million. A smoothing constant of 0.20 is used. a) Using exponential smoothing and given alpha, the forecast for the month of July = ? million checks received (round your response to one decimal place). b) If the check-processing center received 44 million checks in the month of July, then using exponential smoothing and given alpha, the forecast for the month of August = ? million checks received (round your response to one decimal place). c) Exponential smoothing may not be an appropriate method to use for the check-processing center because: A. the check-processing center should observe an increasing trend in its processing requirements. B. the check-processing center should observe a cyclical trend in its processing requirements. C. the check-processing center's forecast is very hard to make as its processing requirements should have a very high variability. D. the check-processing center should observe seasonality in its processing requirements.
D. Disney is the largest employer in the region D. All of the above C. helps minimize wait times in quenes B. forecasts help plan for labor, material, and budget needs
How Analytics Enhance the Guest Experience at Walt Disney World In the tourist mecca of Orlando, Disney World reigns as king. With 60,000+ employees (called "cast members"), Disney is a driving force not just in Central Florida's economy, but in the use of operations management tools. This article, in the magazine Analytics, describes the careful planning guests don't see taking place "behind the scenes" to run the operation smoothly. It also examines the role analytics (mathematical analysis of business problems) plays in ensuring the guest experience is maximized. The article states: "Forecasting serves as the analytical foundation for operations planning at the Resort. It all starts with the park attendance forecast, which lays out the expected attendance at each park. These predictions are strongly considered when setting park hours and performing other strategic planning. More granular forecasts are required for each individual area, such as guest arrivals at the hotel front desks. The company recently launched a new labor demand planning system, which generates forecasts for every 15-minute period at many locations throughout the property, including park entry turnstiles, quick-service restaurants and merchandise locations. These forecasts help the resort plan labor effectively to ensure guest service standards are met." Another innovative way the resort uses forecasting is for attraction wait times. The most popular attractions use Disney's FASTPASS systemlong dash—a unique virtual queuing system that allows guests to receive a ticket with a designated 1-hour window of time when they can return and skip the regular line. From a central command center underneath the Magic Kingdom, forecasting models are executed every 5-10 minutes to project the return patterns of FASTPASS guests based on entertainment schedules and the number of FASTPASS tickets that have been distributed. The forecasts are posted at the front of the attractions to help guests choose whether to enter the line, take a FASTPASS ticket or return to the attraction later in the day. These wait times are also available on Disney's Mobile Magic smart phone app, which shares real-time information about the parks throughout the day. Critical Thinking Questions: 1. Why is Disney a major economic force in Central Florida? A. Employees at the company are paid higher wages than the region's area. B. The President of Disney developed FASTPASS. C. Disney is very popular among local residents. D. Disney is the largest employer in the region. 2. Why is forecasting important to Disney? A. It helps set the parks' open/close hours. B. It helps determine how many workers should be scheduled. C. It projects attendance each day. D. All of the above. 3. The FASTPASS system A. was originally developed for use at Disney's EPCOT park. B. keeps track of how many hours each guest stays in the theme park. C. helps minimize wait times in queues. D. drives the Disney forecasting system. 4. Every business needs to forecast the future because A. inventory systems require customer plans. B. forecasts help plan for labor, material, and budget needs. C. planning keeps customers satisfied and encourages them to return. D. forecasts are needed to schedule deliveries.
31.50; 14.29
Income at the architectural firm Spraggins and Yunes for the period May to July was as follows: Month Income (in $ thousand) May 35.7 June 32.6 July 28.1 Assume that the initial forecast for May is 30 700 and the initial trend adjustment is 0. The smoothing constants selected are alpha = 0.2 and beta = 0.2. Using trend-adjusted exponential smoothing, the forecast for the architectural firm's August income is ? thousand dollars. (Round your response to two decimal places.) The mean squared error (MSE) for the forecast developed using trend-adjusted exponential smoothing is ? (thousand dollars right parenthesis squared. (Round your response to two decimal places.)
31.27; 12.89
Income at the architectural firm Spraggins and Yunes for the period May to July was as follows: Month: Income (in $ thousand) May: 35.7 June: 32.6 July: 28.1 Assume that the initial forecast for May is 30,700 and the initial trend adjustment is 0. The smoothing constants selected are alphaα = 0.1 and beta β = 0.2 Using trend-adjusted exponential smoothing, the forecast for the architectural firm's August income is ? thousand dollars. (Round your response to two decimal places.) The mean squared error (MSE) for the forecast developed using trend-adjusted exponential smoothing is ? (thousand dollars right parenthesis squared dollars). (Round your response to two decimal places.)
355; 400; 445
Lori Cook has developed the following forecasting model: y = 40.0 + 4.50x , where y = demand for Kool Air conditioners and x = the outside temperature (degrees Fahrenheit) a) When the temperature outside is 70degrees F, demand forecast = ? air conditioners (enter your response as an integer). b) When the temperature outside is 80degrees F, demand forecast = ? air conditioners (enter your response as an integer). c) When the temperature outside is 90degrees F, demand forecast = ? air conditioners (enter your response as an integer).
339; 381; 423
Lori Cook has developed the following forecasting model: y = 45.0 + 4.20x where y = demand for Kool Air conditioners and x = the outside temperature (degrees Fahrenheit) a) When the temperature outside is 70degrees° F, demand forecast = ? air conditioners (enter your response as an integer). b) When the temperature outside is 80 degrees° F, demand forecast = ? air conditioners (enter your response as an integer). c) When the temperature outside is 90 degrees° F, demand forecast = ? air conditioners (enter your response as an integer).
556.7; 65.8; 4535
Sales of Volkswagen's popular Beetle have grown steadily at auto dealerships in Nevada during the past 5 years (see table below). Year Sales 1 455 2 495 3 520 4 570 5 580 a) Forecasted sales for year 6 using a 3-year moving average is ? sales (round your response to one decimal place). b) The MAD for a 3-year moving average based forecast is ? sales (round your response to one decimal place). c) The MSE for a 3-year moving average based forecast is ? sales (round your response to the nearest whole number)
625.7; 8.4; 101.7
Sales of Volkswagen's popular Beetle have grown steadily at auto dealerships in Nevada during the past 5 years (see table below). Year Sales 1 450 2 510 3 516 4 555 5 595 a) Forecasted sales for year 6 using the trend projection (linear regression) method are ? sales (round your response to one decimal place). b) The MAD for a linear regression forecast is ? sales (round your response to one decimal place). c) The MSE for the linear regression forecast is ? sales (round your response to one decimal place).
557.3; 69.3; 4,976
Sales of Volkswagen's popular Beetle have grown steadily at auto dealerships in Nevada during the past 5 years (see table below). Year: Sales 1: 450 2: 495 3: 518 4: 570 5: 584 a) Forecasted sales for year 6 using a 3-year moving average is ? sales (round your response to one decimal place). b) The MAD for a 3-year moving average based forecast is ? sales (round your response to one decimal place). c) The MSE for a 3-year moving average based forecast is ? sales (round your response to the nearest whole number).
622.5; 10.3; 120.1
Sales of Volkswagen's popular Beetle have grown steadily at auto dealerships in Nevada during the past 5 years (see table below). Year: Sales 1: 455 2: 502 3: 516 4: 575 5: 580 a) Forecasted sales for year 6 using the trend projection (linear regression) method are ? sales (round your response to one decimal place). b) The MAD for a linear regression forecast is ? sales (round your response to one decimal place). c) The MSE for the linear regression forecast is 120?1120.1 sales (round your response to one decimal place).
374.33; 373.40; 370.17; 374.02; 371.61; 372.33
The following table gives the number of pints of type A blood used at Damascus Hospital in the past 6 weeks: Week Of Pints Used August 31 345 September 7 372 September 14 410 September 21 383 September 28 366 October 5 374 a) The forecasted demand for the week of October 12 using a 3-week moving average = ? pints (round your response to two decimal places). b) Using a 3-week weighted moving average, with weights of 0.20, 0.30, and 0.50, using 0.50 for the most recent week, the forecasted demand for the week of October 12 = ? pints (round your response to two decimal places and remember to use the weights in appropriate order long dash the largest weight applies to most recent period and smallest weight applies to oldest period.) c) If the forecasted demand for the week of August 31 is 345 and alpha = 0.30, using exponential smoothing, develop the forecast for each of the weeks with the known demand and the forecast for the week of October 12 (round your responses to two decimal places). Week Of - Pints Used - Forecast for Date August 31 345 345 September 7 372 345.00 September 14 410 353.10 September 21 383 ? September 28 366 ? October 5 374 ? October 12 - ?
C. short range
The forecasting time horizon that would typically be easiest to predict for would be the A. intermediate range. B. medium range. C. short range. D. long range.
D. seasonality
What is a data pattern that repeats itself after a period of days, weeks, months, or quarters? A. random variation B. cycle C. trend D. seasonality
A. can be determined using MAD
When using exponential smoothing, the smoothing constant A. can be determined using MAD. B. should be chosen to maximize positive bias. C. indicates the accuracy of the previous forecast. D. is typically between .75 and .95 for most business applications.
A. exponential smoothing
Which of the following is a quantitative forecasting method? A. exponential smoothing B. sales force composite C. market survey D. jury of executive opinion
c. Exponential smoothing
Which of the following is a quantitative forecasting method? A. jury of executive opinion B. sales force composite C. exponential smoothing D. market survey
Forecasting is exclusively an objective prediction.
Which of the following statements is NOT true regarding forecasting? A. A forecast is usually classified by the future time horizon that it covers. B. Forecasting may involve taking historical data and projecting them into the future with a mathematical model. C. Forecasting is exclusively an objective prediction. D. Forecasting is the art and science of predicting future events.
When excess capacity exists, cost can decrease.
Which of the following statements is NOT true? A. When capacity is inadequate, customers can be lost. B. When excess capacity exists, cost can increase. C. When excess capacity exists, cost can decrease. D. When capacity is inadequate, market share can shrink.
B. the variability around the regression line
With regard to a regression-based forecast, the standard error of the estimate gives a measure of A. the maximum error of the forecast. B. the variability around the regression line. C. the time required to derive the forecast equation. D. the time period for which the forecast is valid.
