SCM Quiz 6 Chapter 4

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coefficient of correlation

A measure of the strength of the relationship between two variables is referred to as the A. coefficient of determination. B. coefficient of correlation. C. standard error of the estimate. D. standard deviation of the estimate.

41.2 ; 41.96 ; the​ check-processing center should observe seasonality in its processing requirements.

A​ check-processing center uses exponential smoothing to forecast the number of incoming checks each month. The number of checks received in June was 38 ​million, while the forecast was 42 million. A smoothing constant of 0.20 is used. ​a) Using exponential smoothing and given alphaα​, the forecast for the month of July​ = ? million checks received ​(round your response to one decimal​ place). ​b) If the​ check-processing center re ceived 45 million checks in the month of​ July, then using exponential smoothing and given alphaα​, the forecast for the month of August​ = ? million checks received ​(round your response to one decimal​ place). ​c) Exponential smoothing may not be an appropriate method to use for the​ check-processing center​ because: A. the​ check-processing center's forecast is very hard to make as its processing requirements should have a very high variability. B. the​ check-processing center should observe seasonality in its processing requirements. C. the​ check-processing center should observe a cyclical trend in its processing requirements. D. the​ check-processing center should observe an increasing trend in its processing requirements.

41.6; 42.1; the​ check-processing center should observe seasonality in its processing requirements.

A​ check-processing center uses exponential smoothing to forecast the number of incoming checks each month. The number of checks received in June was 40 ​million, while the forecast was 42 million. A smoothing constant of 0.20 is used. ​a) Using exponential smoothing and given alpha​, the forecast for the month of July​ = ? million checks received ​(round your response to one decimal​ place). ​b) If the​ check-processing center received 44 million checks in the month of​ July, then using exponential smoothing and given alpha​, the forecast for the month of August​ = ? million checks received ​(round your response to one decimal​ place). ​c) Exponential smoothing may not be an appropriate method to use for the​ check-processing center​ because: A. the​ check-processing center should observe an increasing trend in its processing requirements. B. the​ check-processing center should observe a cyclical trend in its processing requirements. C. the​ check-processing center's forecast is very hard to make as its processing requirements should have a very high variability. D. the​ check-processing center should observe seasonality in its processing requirements.

D. Disney is the largest employer in the region D. All of the above C. helps minimize wait times in quenes B. forecasts help plan for labor, material, and budget needs

How Analytics Enhance the Guest Experience at Walt Disney World In the tourist mecca of​ Orlando, Disney World reigns as king. With​ 60,000+ employees​ (called "cast​ members"), Disney is a driving force not just in Central​ Florida's economy, but in the use of operations management tools. This​ article, in the magazine​ Analytics, describes the careful planning guests​ don't see taking place​ "behind the​ scenes" to run the operation smoothly. It also examines the role analytics​ (mathematical analysis of business​ problems) plays in ensuring the guest experience is maximized. The article​ states: "Forecasting serves as the analytical foundation for operations planning at the Resort. It all starts with the park attendance​ forecast, which lays out the expected attendance at each park. These predictions are strongly considered when setting park hours and performing other strategic planning. More granular forecasts are required for each individual​ area, such as guest arrivals at the hotel front desks. The company recently launched a new labor demand planning​ system, which generates forecasts for every​ 15-minute period at many locations throughout the​ property, including park entry​ turnstiles, quick-service restaurants and merchandise locations. These forecasts help the resort plan labor effectively to ensure guest service standards are​ met." Another innovative way the resort uses forecasting is for attraction wait times. The most popular attractions use​ Disney's FASTPASS systemlong dash—a unique virtual queuing system that allows guests to receive a ticket with a designated​ 1-hour window of time when they can return and skip the regular line. From a central command center underneath the Magic​ Kingdom, forecasting models are executed every​ 5-10 minutes to project the return patterns of FASTPASS guests based on entertainment schedules and the number of FASTPASS tickets that have been distributed. The forecasts are posted at the front of the attractions to help guests choose whether to enter the​ line, take a FASTPASS ticket or return to the attraction later in the day. These wait times are also available on​ Disney's Mobile Magic smart phone​ app, which shares​ real-time information about the parks throughout the day. Critical Thinking​ Questions: 1. Why is Disney a major economic force in Central​ Florida? A. Employees at the company are paid higher wages than the​ region's area. B. The President of Disney developed FASTPASS. C. Disney is very popular among local residents. D. Disney is the largest employer in the region. 2. Why is forecasting important to​ Disney? A. It helps set the​ parks' open/close hours. B. It helps determine how many workers should be scheduled. C. It projects attendance each day. D. All of the above. 3. The FASTPASS system A. was originally developed for use at​ Disney's EPCOT park. B. keeps track of how many hours each guest stays in the theme park. C. helps minimize wait times in queues. D. drives the Disney forecasting system. 4. Every business needs to forecast the future because A. inventory systems require customer plans. B. forecasts help plan for​ labor, material, and budget needs. C. planning keeps customers satisfied and encourages them to return. D. forecasts are needed to schedule deliveries.

31.50; 14.29

Income at the architectural firm Spraggins and Yunes for the period May to July was as​ follows: Month Income​ (in $​ thousand) May 35.7 June 32.6 July 28.1 Assume that the initial forecast for May is 30 700 and the initial trend adjustment is 0. The smoothing constants selected are alpha ​= 0.2 and beta ​= 0.2. Using​ trend-adjusted exponential​ smoothing, the forecast for the architectural​ firm's August income is ? thousand dollars. ​(Round your response to two decimal​ places.) The mean squared error​ (MSE) for the forecast developed using​ trend-adjusted exponential smoothing is ? ​(thousand dollars right parenthesis squared. ​(Round your response to two decimal​ places.)

31.27; 12.89

Income at the architectural firm Spraggins and Yunes for the period May to July was as​ follows: Month: Income​ (in $​ thousand) May: 35.7 June: 32.6 July: 28.1 Assume that the initial forecast for May is 30,700 and the initial trend adjustment is 0. The smoothing constants selected are alphaα ​= 0.1 and beta β ​= 0.2 Using​ trend-adjusted exponential​ smoothing, the forecast for the architectural​ firm's August income is ? thousand dollars. ​(Round your response to two decimal​ places.) The mean squared error​ (MSE) for the forecast developed using​ trend-adjusted exponential smoothing is ? ​(thousand dollars right parenthesis squared dollars). ​(Round your response to two decimal​ places.)

355; 400; 445

Lori Cook has developed the following forecasting​ model: y ​= 40.0 ​+ 4.50​x , where y ​= demand for Kool Air conditioners and x​ = the outside temperature​ (degrees ​Fahrenheit) ​a) When the temperature outside is 70degrees ​F, demand forecast​ = ? air conditioners ​(enter your response as an​ integer). ​b) When the temperature outside is 80degrees ​F, demand forecast​ = ? air conditioners ​(enter your response as an​ integer). ​c) When the temperature outside is 90degrees ​F, demand forecast​ = ? air conditioners ​(enter your response as an​ integer).

339; 381; 423

Lori Cook has developed the following forecasting​ model: y ​= 45.0 ​+ 4.20​x where y ​= demand for Kool Air conditioners and x​ = the outside temperature​ (degrees ​Fahrenheit) ​a) When the temperature outside is 70degrees° ​F, demand forecast​ = ? air conditioners ​(enter your response as an​ integer). ​b) When the temperature outside is 80 degrees° ​F, demand forecast​ = ? air conditioners ​(enter your response as an​ integer). ​c) When the temperature outside is 90 degrees° ​F, demand forecast​ = ? air conditioners ​(enter your response as an​ integer).

556.7; 65.8; 4535

Sales of​ Volkswagen's popular Beetle have grown steadily at auto dealerships in Nevada during the past 5 years​ (see table​ below). Year Sales 1 455 2 495 3 520 4 570 5 580 ​a) Forecasted sales for year 6 using a​ 3-year moving average is ? sales​ (round your response to one decimal​ place). ​b) The MAD for a​ 3-year moving average based forecast is ? sales ​(round your response to one decimal​ place). ​c) The MSE for a​ 3-year moving average based forecast is ? sales ​(round your response to the nearest whole​ number)

625.7; 8.4; 101.7

Sales of​ Volkswagen's popular Beetle have grown steadily at auto dealerships in Nevada during the past 5 years​ (see table​ below). Year Sales 1 450 2 510 3 516 4 555 5 595 ​a) Forecasted sales for year 6 using the trend projection​ (linear regression) method are ? sales ​(round your response to one decimal​ place). ​b) The MAD for a linear regression forecast is ? sales ​(round your response to one decimal​ place). ​c) The MSE for the linear regression forecast is ? sales ​(round your response to one decimal​ place).

557.3; 69.3; 4,976

Sales of​ Volkswagen's popular Beetle have grown steadily at auto dealerships in Nevada during the past 5 years​ (see table​ below). Year: Sales 1: 450 2: 495 3: 518 4: 570 5: 584 ​a) Forecasted sales for year 6 using a​ 3-year moving average is ? sales​ (round your response to one decimal​ place). ​b) The MAD for a​ 3-year moving average based forecast is ? sales ​(round your response to one decimal​ place). ​c) The MSE for a​ 3-year moving average based forecast is ? sales ​(round your response to the nearest whole​ number).

622.5; 10.3; 120.1

Sales of​ Volkswagen's popular Beetle have grown steadily at auto dealerships in Nevada during the past 5 years​ (see table​ below). Year: Sales 1: 455 2: 502 3: 516 4: 575 5: 580 ​a) Forecasted sales for year 6 using the trend projection​ (linear regression) method are ? sales ​(round your response to one decimal​ place). ​b) The MAD for a linear regression forecast is ? sales ​(round your response to one decimal​ place). ​c) The MSE for the linear regression forecast is 120?1120.1 sales ​(round your response to one decimal​ place).

374.33; 373.40; 370.17; 374.02; 371.61; 372.33

The following table gives the number of pints of type A blood used at Damascus Hospital in the past 6​ weeks: Week Of Pints Used August 31 345 September 7 372 September 14 410 September 21 383 September 28 366 October 5 374 ​a) The forecasted demand for the week of October 12 using a​ 3-week moving average ​= ? pints ​(round your response to two decimal​ places). ​b) Using a​ 3-week weighted moving​ average, with weights of 0.20​, 0.30​, and 0.50​, using 0.50 for the most recent​ week, the forecasted demand for the week of October 12​ = ? pints ​(round your response to two decimal places and remember to use the weights in appropriate order long dash the largest weight applies to most recent period and smallest weight applies to oldest period.​) ​c) If the forecasted demand for the week of August 31 is 345 and alpha ​= 0.30​, using exponential​ smoothing, develop the forecast for each of the weeks with the known demand and the forecast for the week of October 12 ​(round your responses to two decimal​ places). Week Of - Pints Used - Forecast for Date August 31 345 345 September 7 372 345.00 September 14 410 353.10 September 21 383 ? September 28 366 ? October 5 374 ? October 12 - ?

C. short range

The forecasting time horizon that would typically be easiest to predict for would be the A. intermediate range. B. medium range. C. short range. D. long range.

D. seasonality

What is a data pattern that repeats itself after a period of​ days, weeks,​ months, or​ quarters? A. random variation B. cycle C. trend D. seasonality

A. can be determined using MAD

When using exponential​ smoothing, the smoothing constant A. can be determined using MAD. B. should be chosen to maximize positive bias. C. indicates the accuracy of the previous forecast. D. is typically between .75 and .95 for most business applications.

A. exponential smoothing

Which of the following is a quantitative forecasting​ method? A. exponential smoothing B. sales force composite C. market survey D. jury of executive opinion

c. Exponential smoothing

Which of the following is a quantitative forecasting​ method? A. jury of executive opinion B. sales force composite C. exponential smoothing D. market survey

Forecasting is exclusively an objective prediction.

Which of the following statements is NOT true regarding​ forecasting? A. A forecast is usually classified by the future time horizon that it covers. B. Forecasting may involve taking historical data and projecting them into the future with a mathematical model. C. Forecasting is exclusively an objective prediction. D. Forecasting is the art and science of predicting future events.

When excess capacity​ exists, cost can decrease.

Which of the following statements is NOT​ true? A. When capacity is​ inadequate, customers can be lost. B. When excess capacity​ exists, cost can increase. C. When excess capacity​ exists, cost can decrease. D. When capacity is​ inadequate, market share can shrink.

B. the variability around the regression line

With regard to a​ regression-based forecast, the standard error of the estimate gives a measure of A. the maximum error of the forecast. B. the variability around the regression line. C. the time required to derive the forecast equation. D. the time period for which the forecast is valid.


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