Supply Chain Chapter 4

Which of the following statements about time-series forecasting is true?

It is based on the assumption that the analysis of past demand helps predict future demand

A time-series model uses a series of past data points to make the forecast

TRUE

Cycles and random variations are both components of time series

TRUE

Demand for individual products can be driven by product life cycles

TRUE

The forecasting technique that pools the opinions of a group of experts or managers is known as:

jury of executive opinion

A naive forecast for September sales of a product would be equal to the forecast for August

FALSE

Increasing the number of periods in a moving average will accomplish greater smoothing, but at the expense of:

sensitivity to real changes in the data

Which of the following is not present in a time series?

operational variation

Which of the following is not a type of qualitative forecasting?

moving average

Which of the following uses three types of participants: decision makers, staff personnel, and respondents?

Delphi method

Which time-series model uses BOTH past forecasts and past demand data to generate a new forecast?

Exponential smoothing

Which of the following statements comparing exponential smoothing to the weighted moving average technique is TRUE?

Exponential smoothing typically requires less record keeping of past data

In trend projection, a negative regression slope is mathematically impossible

FALSE

Mean squared error and exponential smoothing are two measures of the overall error of a forecasting model

FALSE

The larger the number of periods in the simple moving average forecasting method, the greater the method's responsiveness to changes in demand

FALSE

In trend projection, the trend component is the slope of the regression equation

TRUE

One advantage of exponential smoothing is the limited amount of record keeping involved

TRUE

Seasonal indices adjust raw data for patterns that repeat at regular time intervals

TRUE

The sales force composite forecasting method relies on salespersons' estimated of expected sales

TRUE

Gradual upward or downward movement of data over time is called:

a trend

Which of the following techniques uses variables such as price and promotional expenditures, which are related to product demand, to predict demand?

associative models

The fundamental difference between cycles and seasonality is the:

duration of the repeating patterns

Time-series data may exhibit which of the following behaviors?

trend, random variations, seasonality, cycles

Which of the following is NOT a characteristic of exponential smoothing?

weights each historical value equally