Syria

Children forced to work

- - Children in debt, unemployed, and financial resources depleted - Children forced to drop out of school and become breadwinners - Other got to become child brides - 75% of households have children working, nearly half of these kids are joint or sole breadwinners - Don't have the essential childhood experiences

EDUCATION LOST

- 1/3 schools in syria destroyed, damaged, used to shelter all the displaced, used for military purposes - won't we able to break out of poverty in the future - Save the children support 53 schools in north west syria and have helped 34,500 kids access pre-school and primary school shit

HUMANITARIAN CRISIS

- 13 million syrians in need of aid and 3 million in hard to reach areas - Over 90% need shelter now - Around 75000 found UN refugee camps and often lack access to basic services like education or healthcare - 54% of syrians are food insecure - (because of inflation, link to isis forcing prices up and sanctions) - 1/3 don't have clean water or sanitation - Life expectancy has fallen by 15 years since the pre war levels- are now 55 years or less, before it was 70

Impact on Italy

- 500,000 refugees landed in italy from 2014 onwards - Led to upset - 2018 election saw two anti-immigration parties, far right Lega Nord and populist five-star movement formed a coalition government with around 50% of the vote - resentment - There was, for example, the mayor of a major Italian city (legal nord) who argued that immigrants should be dressed as animals and hunted down, or the League politician who recently claimed to be happy on hearing of the death of immigrants trying to arrive by sea. BUT - In October 2007, extraordinary anti-immigrant sentiment exploded into violence toward Romanian immigrants and Roma in general. - The Italian government responded with roundups of Romanian immigrants and summary expulsions of some two hundred, mostly Roma, disregarding E.U. immigration rules. - In 2008, mobs in several areas around Naples attacked Roma communities, setting homes alight, and forcing hundreds of Roma to flee. The camp in Ponticelli was set on fire each month between May and July 2008. - According to a May 2008 poll 68% of Italians, wanted to see all of the country's approximately 150,000 Gypsies, many of them Italian citizens, expelled.[The survey, published as mobs in Naples burned down Gypsy camps that month, revealed that the majority also wanted all Gypsy camps in Italy to be demolished. - On 13 December 2011, an armed attack occurred in Florence. Two market traders from Senegal, 40-year-old Samb Modou, and 54-year-old Mor Diop, were killed by Gianluca Casseri, who wounded three other Senegalese traders in another market.- [The attack was racially motivated according to authorities. - Italy always been racist

ISIS OPPRESSION

- Areas controlled by ISIS often see members of other religious groups persecuted or killed - Been identified to have carried out genocide against the Yazidi people - ISIS invaded Sinjar province and Yazidis had to flee - 5000 men killed in the genocide and 7000 women and girls were sold as slaves to ISIS fighters - In 2018 Nadia Murad was enslaved by ISIS and used as a sex slave - They took child soldiers, over 1500 child soldiers were said to be fighting for ISIS and over 60% were suicide attackers - ISIS threw gay men from the top of high buildings

Rise of Crony Capitalism

- Before, there were attempts at agrarian reform from Assad, like redistribution of land etc - These neoliberal policies benefited only a small portion of society. Under Hafez al-Assad, loyalty to the regime was a crucial aspect of his consolidation of power, and the Baath Party became its main influence vehicle for patronage. - The corruption and low productivity sprawling from it, when met with privatization measures, led to the entrenchment of a new, crony capitalist upper class made out of a small elite strongly tied to the ruling family. - A notorious example is the Makhlouf family, with Rami Makhlouf, Bashar's cousin, "estimated," as Yassin-Kassab and al-Shami write, "to control some 60 per cent of the economy." To quote Achcar again: "With a personal fortune estimated at $6 billion, Makhlouf owns or controls an impressive list of companies in a wide range of sectors: banking, insurance, oil, industry, real estate, tourism, media, and so on." - The model promoted by Hafez led to the complete crushing of all independent workers' and peasants' unions, women's movements and youth unions, all of which by the end of his rule were, in Yassin-Kassab's and al-Shami's words, "entirely absorbed into the state machinery."

GERMANY FEAR OF REFUGEES

- Cologne New Year's Eve Attacks in 2016, when a series of sexual attacks assaults took place across the city which were mostly attributed to males from middle east and northern africa - Across germany, 1200 women women were victims of sexual assault on this single night - Explosion in number of hate crimes perpetrated against refugees. Over 3500 attacks on refugees in 2016 )over 16 a day) and over 1000 arson attacks setting fire to refugee shelters and accommodation - less peace and coherence in country - AfD rising on immigration row, threatening stability of CDU - In the eastern German city of Chemnitz, the site of continued far-right protests and clashing counter-demonstrations, there has hardly been a moment's rest. - Earlier in the week, the death of a 35-year-old German-Cuban, Daniel H., allegedly at the hands of Iraqi and Syrian-born men who are now in custody, was used as a rallying cry for far-right extremists. - Rumors swirled online around his death, and incited anger from many right-wing supporters. Authorities, however, were quick to debunk the myths. "The mobilization was based on anti-foreigner comment, false information and conspiracy theories," governor of Saxony, Michael Kretschmer, told reporters earlier in the week. - The region of Saxony, where Chemnitz is located, is a stronghold for the anti-Islam far-right party, the Alternative for Deutschland, and has long struggled with neo-Nazi aggression. - In 2018 right-wing extremists and hooligans took the streets, harassing those who looked foreign and shouting xenophobic slurs. The next day, violence reached a pinnacle as 6,000 right-wing protestors mobilized in the streets, facing off against 1,500 counter-demonstrators and overpowering ill-staffed police forces. - Authorities have since opened at least 10 cases after extremists who were seen making Hitler salutes. - Some held German flags and chanted, "We are the people" and "Merkel has to go." - A moderator urged crowds to avoid violence. An hour later, a second right-wing demonstration began, organized by far-right political party Alternative for Deutschland (AfD), the main opposition party in the German parliament alongside anti-Islam, xenophobic citizen's organization PEGIDA. HOWEVER - Some think this has been exaggerated to promote far-right anti-immigration feelings and many germans welcome refugees warmly -Using viral Hashtag #WelcomeChallenge, people have organized mass donations. In online videos, Germans have taken to social networks to explain what they have done for refugees and to urge their friends to do the same. In a Facebook group that has 10,000 members, Germans try to match up requests for donations and services with volunteers. This campaign and others appear to have been a success so far: Many reception centers and groups say they are receiving so many donations that they cannot accept all of them. In some villages and cities, refugees have been welcomed by residents who awaited them at reception centers. For instance, in the city of Hof, as many as 3,000 people greeted new arrivals last week. While there is no conclusive data on volunteer numbers, a study by the Bertelsmann Foundation said there could be anywhere between 500,000 and a million people helping the new arrivals settle in.

URBANISATION

- Drought migration (proposed link between global warming and syrian conflict) - 75% of syrian farmers experienced total crop failure - So, 1.5 mill people moved away - Many of these people were unskilled and illiterate - they became unskilled and lived in slums - Not enough help from government and pressure got put on hospitals and schools - People thought this drought put 3 million extra Syrians into extreme poverty - Added to this are some 1 million Iraqi refugees who came to Syria in 2006-2007 (around 7% of the total Syrian population), now residing in the country. - Raised housing costs and straining public services PEOPLE THINK THIS PUSHED PEOPLE TOGETHER, AND THIS POPULATION MOVEMENT EXAGGERATED EXISTING PRESSURES, CREATING CONDITIONS FOR UNREST TO DEVELOP

Economic Impact

- Estimated cost of rebuilding Aleppo (rebel stronghold) and Raqqa (ISIS stronghold) is about $67 bill - Pre War, there were 6 UNESCO heritage sites, including Palymra. ISIS destroyed Palymra - Used to be bigger than that of Australia - Total loss amounts to $254 bill, UN economists estimate - Over 50% unemployed - 69% in extreme poverty and 90% spend over 50% of income on food - $254 bill GDP losses from conflict, four times Syria GDP in 2010 - $16 bill estimated economic losses to the agriculture sector

American led military intervention

- From 2013 onwards, USA along with other western countries started a military campaign against ISIS. - Mostly conducted through arial attacks as coalition government were reluctant to put soldiers on the ground - Over the past 4 years 16,000 US and allied airstrikes have been carried out against ISIS - By start of 2019 there were 2000 american troops in syria - Over 1 bill dollars of training and equipment was supplied to help rebels - They worked closely with kurdish fighters in north and east and managed to reclaim much of land captured by ISIS in 2014 - Coalition has claimed that 98% of territory once controlled by ISIS has now been retaken, including major city of Raqqa DIFFICULTIES - Although the US started started trying to get Assad out of office since Obama era, UN security council failed resolutions means US and its allies could be accused of acting illegally if they removed Assad - There's a fear that if Assad is toppled, extremists could take over (like in Libya with ansar al-sharia) FAILURES - Raqqa has been left practically uninhabitable and many civilians killed - Coalition forces estimate civilians deaths at 1124 however the independent monitoring organisation Airways puts real figure are over 2500

POVERTY AND UNEMPLOYMENT

- Government mismanagement made it harder to get the water after the drought - There's a lack of natural resources, oil reserves are small and generally of poor quality - Unemployment rate was 10% pre-conflict - 12% in extreme poverty - The sharpening of social schisms in the country was also exacerbated by increasing growth in youth unemployment. - High birth rates, combined with free education, had created a great number of young, educated Syrians that the labor market could not absorb. - With over half the population under the age of 25, it is estimated that around 250,000 people were entering the labor market each year before the revolution. - Literacy rates and healthcare expenditure had increased steadily despite the deepening of the social gap, already experienced during the socialist period under the Baath, as demonstrated by the increase in the GINI index of inequality from 33.7 in 1997 to 37.4 in 2004. - Daraa, the largest city in the Hawran valley, located just a few kilometres from the Jordanian border, was already deeply impoverished due to the depletion of water resources, forcing some farmers to turn from the agricultural sector to opening chicken farms. In early March 2011, just days before protests broke out, an International Crisis Group team reported that "local residents warned of an explosive situation; any spark might cause it to detonate." - Previously marginalised groups, particularly Alawis, found employment in the new army and security services, while the urban working and middle classes benefitted from subsidised goods and jobs in the bureaucracy." SAY IT WAS URBANISATION AND THEN REBUT BY SAYING IT'S WIDER ECONOMIC PROBLEMS

UK HUMANITARIAN RESPONSE

- Hardline approach to accepting refugees and took fewer than 50,000 asylum seekers (equivalent to less than 1 asylum seeker per 1000 people versus 3.5 per 1000 in sweden) - Doesn't accept people from boats, but selects them from camps in syria and surrounding countries - New asylum seekers can only claim (£36.95 p/w) if in severe need VULNERABLE PERSONS RESETLLEMENT PROGRAMME - Seeks to help the most vulnerable (elderly, kids, disabled, victims of sexual abuse and torture) - Allowed 20,000 spaces for refugees to come, of which 10,000 have now been taken - Over 7,000 individuals resettled have been children - - We are the second biggest aid donor to Syri- 25 million food rations supplies by UKAID

Turkey impact pressure on services

- In total Turkey has spent about 25 million dollars, 10 million has been used to ensure healthcare for all refugees - They can get citizenship after 5 years but can't get work permits. They end up in the informal sector and are willing to work for lower wages than local turkish population. Influx of refugees is having a harmful effect on some workers in Turkey, especially low skilled workers - Tourism from britain and russia decreased 60 - Now that there's 50,000 syrians in istanbul, there's pressure on jobs and rent rises - 30%-40% of border province hospitals give services to syrian refugees - Anger at erdogan politicisation of issue Osama Domane*, one of 3.5 million Syrian refugees in Turkey, recalled being "terribly humiliated" by Turkish security forces upon reaching the country, and was cynical about Erdogan's professed support for Syria's opposition. Ousuma Domane (MEE) "I despise Erdogan for using Syrians for his own propaganda," he told MEE. "It is unethical for a politician to claim to fully ally with the [Syrian] opposition, all the while working for his own benefit regardless of the damages it brings to the Syrian people." Domane concurred. "It's complicated for us, we have no options, as the other candidates had promised their people that they would send Syrian refugees back home and open relations with the Syrian dictator [Assad]," he said. "Erdogan is the least worst option for us to maintain some dignity. Is he the best? Absolutely not and he never will be. But we can only accept it and live with it." But despite many refugees' critiques of Erdogan, several Turkish opposition parties' campaign platforms seen as hostile to refugees - including the Republican People's Party (CHP) candidate Muharrem Ince's vow to restore relations with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad - led them to be fearful of any change to the political status quo in their host country. HOWEVER - Turkish economy has fared well, turkish economicy expanded by 4% at end of 2015 and 5% in 2016, annual GDP about 800 bill dollars, cost of resettling refugees less than 1% of GDP - Syrians most likely to vote for Erdogan and once naturalised they can vote. This would keep Erdogan in power, which is good for him as he's been there since 2014, when he won 52% ("There were those who did not even like the prophet. I, however, won 52%")

GERMANY HUMANITARIAN RESPONSE

- Open doors policy for those who need to escape war (after Alan Kurdi's death) - Over 200,000 January through August 2015 - Have somewhere safe; don't need to stay in unsafe refugee camps CRITICISM - Encourage more syrians to make the dangerous journey across the mediterranean because they know they'll be safe in Germany - In 2016, the year after policy was put into place, there were 22% more deaths in the Mediterranean (the atlantic) - It will be easier to get refugee status which encourages more human trafficking and people smuggling, putting more people at risk

ARAB LEAGUE SANCTIONS

- Sanctions stop countries trading with syria and stops senior syrian government officials from travelling abroad - EU imposed sanctions too, quite bad as before the war, oil exports were 1/5 of syria's international trade, and 90% of these went to europe - Many believe those hit the worst are ordinary, vulnerable Syrians as they can't purchase vital needs, but regime leaders are still up in comfort - Arab league thought this would put pressure on leaders - UN report finds sanctions meant there was a 300% rise in price of wheat flour and 650% rise for rice, fuel prices doubled in 18 months - Link to increased poverty in syria, 90% spend over half of income on food PEACE ATTEMPTS FAILED: - On 2 November 2011, the Syrian government agreed to an Arab League peace plan to the effect that its army would no longer be deployed in violent crackdowns against peaceful demonstrators, tanks would be withdrawn from the cities, all political prisoners be released, a dialogue with the opposition begun within two weeks and Arab League and foreign media allowed to monitor the situation. - When on 6 November at least 23 demonstrators were killed, the Arab League considered this a first breach of promise by Syria. - On 12/13 November Syrian opposition groups counted 300 demonstrators and other opponents of the government allegedly killed since 2 November. - The Arab League therefore threatened to suspend Syria's membership of the League if it wouldn't execute the peace plan before 16 November.

Mental health issues syrian children

- Save the children finds 70% of syrian children had PTSD and many had speech impediments, nightmares, bed wetting - Constant state of fear means 1/4 children have serious mental health issues

DEATHS FROM ASSAD REGIME

- Total of 222114 civilians killed at hands of parties to the conflict from march 2011 to september 2018 - parties included russian forces, syrian regime forces, extremist islamic groups, armed opposition, international coalition forces, kurdish self management forces - Over 90% to assad - 106 uses of chemical weapons - Over 68000 barrel bombs dropped on rebel areas, 97% victims civilians

Lebanon Impact of Refugees

- Tourism in the area has been impacted because people think violence will spread across the border - Trade routes across the middle east are now blocked - Economic growth in Lebanon was over 10% in 2010, but since war it's been below 2% - Many think that refugees have made this worse, 51% of syrian refugees are below survival minimum expenditure basket, HOWEVER - Not much money is seen to be spent on refugees, so they can't be seen as a major source of economic slowdown - It was already a poor country, struggling to provide basic services (only 18 hours of electricity a day and water 3 days a week) - 23% off 15-17s attend school out of refugees in lebanon - Refugees not able to claim lebanese citizenship - Over 50% living in shelters that don't meet basic standards bc of overcrowding and poor sanitation

EU IN SYRIA

AIDS - Since 2016, as a result of EU aid, 7 mill got access to clean, safe water - 11.3 million vaccines administered - 23 million emergency health services were provided MARE NOSTRUM - Funded by the Eu and run principally by itaian authorities - Italian navy undertook seach and rescue missions off the coast of Libya. Lasted for around a year, until ended in 2014 due to criticism ISSUES - Seen as encouraging migrants and people smugglers to make the journey - -After operation ended number of deaths in Mediterranean increased in 2015 and 2016. From just over 3500 in 2014 to just under 4000 in 2015 to just over 5000 in 2016 EU-TURKEY DEAL - Any refugee who tries to enter europe via boat will get returned to Turkey and the EU will take a refugee from Turkey who's applied formally - EU will take their share of refugees, but they can't access by boat - They argue this discourages dangerous smugglers ISSUES - Turkey is not necessarily a safe place for refugees to be - VU amsterdam looks at the human rights abuses that happen in refugee resettlement camps - Düziçi refugee camp is in fact a detention centre. -refugees not allowed to leave the camp and are also locked in cells with little to no opportunity to contact the outside world. - refugees transferred from Greece to Turkey are faced with arbitrary and unlawful arrests. - As a result of recent changes in Turkish asylum legislation, asylum seekers in Turkey now run the risk of being deported back to their country of origin without due process. BUT European commission says: the number of deaths in the Aegean decreased from 1,175 in the 20 months before the Statement to 130. That is almost one million people who have not taken dangerous routes to get to the European Union, and more than 1,000 who have not lost their lives trying

ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALISM

BEGINNINGS - US-UK invasion of Iraq and sudden withdrawal - Blair couldn't draft a strategy for post-Saddam Iraq and this resulted in a lack of Iraqi civilian support; and widespread lawlessness and violence in major cities like Baghdad and Basra - Grievance, sentiments of victimhood against the increasingly incompetent state builders, as well as increasing Islamist resistance, left many Iraqis feeling their best chance of survival, representation, or identification lies with extremists - They could leverage nationalism, perceived victimhood, support for Islamism, and their promises of a caliphal utopia - Snowden revelations led to a hasty withdrawal from Iraq, freeing up further vacuum in which jihadists could operate - As Sunnis kept getting criticised by Shias, ISIS promised to restore Sunni power. Spread from north to across the Middle East was seen - ISIS wanted to destroy the west US INTERVENTION - In 2014, US starts bombing IS, launching pentagon training programme - In 2015, Russia calls for Air Strikes. Meant to hit IS, but just hit some anti-assad rebels - Canadians came and Kurdish friendly fire killed a soldier BUT - ISIS ABLE TO EMERGE DURING INSTABILITY AND POWER VACCUUM CAUSED BY CIVIL WAR IN SYRIA - WITHDRAWAL FROM THESE COUNTRIES WASN'T THE PROBLEM, IT WAS ALSO POWER STRUGGLES WITHIN THESE COUNTRIES Arab Spring created an ideal environment for terrorism to grow and thrive. "Terrorists realized they could exploit the confusion and vacuum in power created by the uprisings," says a U.S. intelligence officer stationed in Libya during the Arab Spring movement. He says terrorists used social media to stoke civil unrest and take advantage of the chaos. In the Arab Spring's wake, Egypt and Tunisia disbanded the security structures that had helped keep jihadists in check, and freed many Islamist and jihadist political prisoners. In Libya, parts of the country fell entirely outside government control, providing openings for violent terrorist movements. "Many of the regimes weakened or deposed by the Arab Spring were among Washington's most effective counterterrorism partners," noted Juan Zarate in an analysis written in June 2011. A senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Zarate said the political upheaval created "new space" for al-Qaeda and associated terrorist movements to operate where none existed before.

Counterpart to UK intervention

COULDN'T GET IT AT FIRST (2013) - David Cameron said he would respect the defeat of a government motion by 285-272, ruling out joining US-led strikes. - The prime minister's call for a military response in Syria followed a suspected chemical weapons attack on the outskirts of the capital Damascus on 21 August, in which hundreds of people are reported to have died. - The US and UK say the Assad government was behind the attack - a claim denied by Damascus, which blames the rebels. - After the vote Prime Minster David Cameron said it was clear Parliament did not want action and "the government will act accordingly". Defence Secretary Philip Hammond had told BBC's Newsnight programme that he and the prime minister were "disappointed" with the result, saying it would harm Britain's "special relationship" with Washington. - But he said he did not expect Britain's decision to "stop any action" by other countries. Labour leader Ed Miliband said on Friday that the House of Commons had spoken "for the people of Britain". - "People are deeply concerned about the chemical weapons attacks in Syria, but they want us to learn the lessons of Iraq," he said. - "They don't want a rush to war. They want things done in the right way, working with the international community." - He said Britain "doesn't need reckless and impulsive leadership, it needs calm and measured leadership". - George Osbourne: "I hope this doesn't become a moment when we turn our back on all of the world's problems." - The result of the vote was condemned by former Liberal Democrat leader Lord Ashdown, who tweeted that in "50 years trying to serve my country I have never felt so depressed [or] ashamed". - He later told the BBC that by doing nothing President Assad will use chemical weapons more "those weapons will become more commonplace in the Middle East battlefield" and "we will feel the effects of that as well". - The defeat comes as a potential blow to the authority of Mr Cameron, who had already watered down a government motion proposing military action, in response to Labour's demands for more evidence of President Assad's guilt. - The BBC's political editor Nick Robinson said the prime minister had now lost control of his own foreign and defence policy, and as a result he will cut a diminished figure on the international stage. - He added that some strong advocates of the transatlantic relationship were worried that America may now question the value and reliability of Britain as an ally.

Authoritarian Government

EVIDENCE OF THIS - From 1971 onwards, Syria was ruled by an authoritarian dictatorship by Al Assad family - In 1982 Hasfez Al Assad massacred 20,000-40,000 Sunni Muslims looking to challenge the regime - Bashar won 99.7% of vote in a sham election - Simply criticising government could lead to arrest - There is a secret police called Mukhabarat. Human Rights Watch has identified 27 torture sites in Syria CONSEQUENCES - Syrians in cities like Damascus were protesting the streets to demand the release of political prisoners; abolition of emergency laws; end corruption; and have more freedom - 15 boys were detained for writing graffiti and one was killed - In Daraa several hundred went to protest, with 3 being killed by live fire GOVERNMENT RESPONSE: - In 2011, Assad launched a probe into deaths in Daraa and Latakia and established a committee to study lifting of emergency law - These were accompanied by more repression; as security forces carried out mass arrests of activists and journalists - 2 days after speech, weekly protests started across Syria FUEL - Chemical weapon use prevented chance of peace

UN NEGOTIATION TALKS

GENEVA TALKS - These were talks driven by the UN Security Council permanent members - Attempts were made in 2014, 2016 and 2017 - These attempted to bring together the government forces and the rebels - These talks broke down over the question of Assad's role - Syria couldn't engage with this because 1) they thought it was dominated by western forces and the UN and 2) some actors took a clear, blunt line urging for Assad to be removed - Hillary Clinton led American talk, saying removing Assad was essential - Syrian foreign minister said that "no-one in the world has the right" to do this - Iran was not involved because they knew they'd back Assad - Opposition forces were represented by the Syrian National Coalition who were exiled. This meant they had no strong links, connection with what was happening on the ground. ASTANA TALKS - They were held in Khazakstan, already a step away from being western centric - Dominated by Russia and Turkey - Iran involved right away - Leaders were people actually fighting on the ground - Lead to ceasefire agreements and opportunities for humanitarian aid to be delivered to Syria - On 4 May 2017, at the fourth round of the Astana talks, representatives of Russia, Iran, and Turkey signed a memorandum to establish four "de-escalation zones" in Syria. The largest one of those included the Idlib Governorate and adjoining districts of Hama, Aleppo and Latakia Governorates; the other three zones were set up in the northern rebel-controlled parts of the Homs Governorate, the rebel-controlled eastern Ghouta, and along the Jordan-Syria border. In those areas, combat operations would be halted as of 6 May 2017; it also envisaged suspension of flights of military aircraft in those areas, as well as the creation of conditions for humanitarian access, medical assistance, the return of displaced civilians to their homes and the restoration of damaged infrastructure. - Less fighting in tese areas DE-ESCALATION ZONE DID NOT HELP - Expired after 6 months - Many thought this just concentrated fighting in other parts of Syria - In these 6 months, they moved to the east to deal with ISIS, and after this they moved back. Many thought this looked like battle management - The government has also stepped up attacks on the Eastern Ghouta suburbs of Damascus, killing more than 287 people since December 29 (space of less than 2 months) the SOHR said on Monday. The military offensive has tightened the siege on some 400,000 people who are trapped in the suburbs with limited access to food and medicine. WHERE BOTH FAILED - Didn't involve ISIS or Kurds

SECTARIAN TENSION

GROUPS AND WHAT THEY WANT - Shia Alawites are 12% (minority) but they're the party in power - Assad and his family are Shia Alawites - During the war, Shias signed up to to support the regime in the National Defence Force - Sunnis make up 70% of the population - They tend to be poorer and excluded from positions of power - This is also the religion of most extremist groups - Kurds want their own state - They also want to fight ISIS VIOLENCE - Some accused the government of encouraging sectarian agitation - In Homs, government workers were offered extra stipends of up to $500 a month to fan sectarian fears posing as opposition supporters - This included placing graffiti with "The Christians to Beirut, Alawites to the grave) - Al Jazeera reports that Alawites were scared of Sunni hegemony, as they were oppressed by them in Ottoman times - Some said in cities like Homs, Alawites can be killed or abducted if they go into Sunni neighbourhoods - Ib March 2013 though, FSA commander Abu Sakkar was seen cutting organs from dead body of a Syrian soldiers saying: "I swear to God, you soldiers of Bashar, you dogs, we will eat from your hearts and livers! O heroes of Bab Amr, you slaughter the Alawites and take out their hearts to eat them!" - He said this was revenge as he found a video of this soldier sexually abusing a woman and her daughter - Others show Assad loyalists raping, torturing, and killing sunnis, including kids ETHNIC AND RELIGIOUS TENSIONS ARE UNDERLYING FACTORS

DOCTORS WITHOUT BORDERS

HOW HAVE THEY HELPED: - In 2017, MSF gave out 23,000 relief kits and carried out 10,000 major surgical interventions - They gave hygeine and winter supply kits to families and provided medical supplies and support to emergency facilities in the Northern Idlib area after 10s of 1000s were displaced - Victims of explosives were also treated in Raqqa LIMITATIONS: - MSF got not operations in ISIS controlled areas - This is because leadership has given no assurances about safety and impartiality in these regions - They also haven't been given access to government held areas - In an attack on Eastern Ghouta 15/20 MSF facilities were hit by bombing or shelling - This limits MSFs ability to help people

Failures of Russian Response

HURT ORDINARY CIVILIANS - Some said they just used this whole thing to demonstrate and test new military technology. showcase their power to the rest of the world. - Suggested that as many as 7000 civilian casualties were directly attributed to russian air strikes - Bombing of aleppo left city totally destroyed REBELS R STILL WANTING 2 FITE - "Assad's forces remain over-stretched and it is not clear that the regime has the resources to maintain activities on multiple fronts, let alone engage in a long siege of Aleppo or move towards actually taking control of the city," Julien Barnes-Dacey, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, writes in a February report. - "Unlike elsewhere, the rebels are less likely to be willing to surrender, even under siege conditions, given the strategic importance of the city," Barnes-Dacey says. - So it's best to see the current advances in Aleppo and elsewhere as demonstrative of the back-and-forth nature of the Syrian civil war, in which momentum and territorial gains have shifted back and forth between the parties.

RUSSIA RESPONSE (aim achieved)

KEEPING IN ASSAD - - Over 71,000 russian air strikes conducted (over quadruple the coalition total) - veto activity in UN - airstrikes were on rebel held areas - by late feb 2016, 60 daily airstrikes - 209 syrian oil facilities destroyed, stopped isis oil trade and supply routes in syrian desert - Helped syrian army capture 400 towns - Ranjit Gupta wrote, in an article published by The Commonwealth Journal of International Affairs, that the Russian reinforcement was "godsend for Assad, greatly boosting the regime's sagging morale and that of its armed forces." -Gupta continued: With robust air cover provided by Russian airstrikes Assad's forces can start liberating and holding territory, particularly in the extremely strategically vital corridor connecting Damascus and Aleppo. Russian help provides Assad's military the distinct possibilities to regain the upper hand in the conflict, particularly in northwestern and western Syria at least - Assad got his increased negotiating power This offensive has left Aleppo basically encircled: the 300,000 to 400,000 Syrians in rebel-held parts of the city will only get food and medicine if Assad lets them have it. Tens of thousands have already fled the city, further worsening Syria's dire refugee crisis. Strategically, these advances have put Assad in a much stronger position. While it looked like he was on the road to defeat in the fall of last year, he's now got the upper hand militarily — which gives him more leverage in any negotiations over Syria's future.

UN SECURITY COUNCIL

PROGRESS - UN's job is to maintain peace globally, a task which is undertaken principally by UN security council - decides when international laws have been violated and can authorise military and other forms of response; it has the power to authorise military action against a state or government - It can propose and adopt resolutions - 2249 november 20015 condemnation of isis. Permitted countries to take necessary measures to destroy ISIS (say it's effective as ISIS is now gone) - 2016 access for humanitarian aid. Called on all sides in the war to permit aid workers and supplies to enter the country. WHO IS VETO-ING: - Russia votes because of support of Assad because they are allied with him for geo-political reasons - China doesn't want to allow UN to remove leaders for human rights issues, cos then it would be in a mess - These are permanent members of the security council - One or the other has votes stuff like prosecution of assad for war crimes. This allows him to keep doing his clownery (torture points and stuff) - Use of explosive weapons, responsible for 53% of civilian deaths has gotten worse since 2011 and worsened in 2014

INSERTION OF INTERNATIONAL INTERESTS

REGIONAL POWERS - Iran wanted to counter the influence of Saudi Arabia and spread its own influence in the area -Iran employed hundreds of officers on the ground - Oil rich gulf states now start to send funds to rebels to counter Iran's influence - Turkey supports rebel group "Free Syrian Army" - They were accused of funding jihadists - Turkey is afraid of Kurdish autonomy in Syria because it may fuel separation amongst Kurds in Turkey - They let ISIS pass through territory - It has launched a war against the YPG, saying they are terrorists - Israel was concerned about growing influence of Iran - They were upset about high tech weapons in hands of Hezbollah - In mid 2012, Hezbollah invaded to fight alongside Assad RUSSIA - Assad is pretty much Russia's only ally in the whole middle east - If assad was to fall, Russia would lose key foothold in Middle East and also access to Syrua's warm water ports to the Meditteranean - Moscow supplies Syrian army - Russia also has a geo-political interest. In 2011, NATO intervention in Libya was meant to protect civilians, but ended up with the killing of Gaddafi. Russia doesn't want this to happen again AMERICA - For a while, US wanted to overthrow Assad; but never went about it as they feared what might replace him - US worked and trained armed Syrian Democratic Forces - This is mostly made up of Kurdish fighters called the YPG - Aim is to drive IS out of north of syria - Turning point was when US administration decided that Assad's government had used chemical weapons- crossing a "red line" - Before this, US simply worked to provide aid - Now, people see US' aim is to achieve a negotiated political settlement to establish an authority that can provide basic stability and administer state institutions; protecting the rights of all Syrians; securing unconventional and advanced conventional weapons and countering terrorist activity - BUT trump's election and 2017 Assad use of chemical weapons -> trump sends strikes to air base INTERESTS INVOLVED AND SYRIA'S ETHNIC TENSIONS HAVE TURNED THE CONFLICT FROM A CIVIL WAR INTO A REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT BUT In 1982, most of city of Hama was flattened when assad tried to fight islamic brotherhood, things were conflicted in syria before international involvement. also important to know that upon trump's election, he decided not to do anything. Trump's Middle Eat Peace Plan finished

Counterpoint to influence of international military intervention

US DIDN'T DO SHIT FOR SOME TIME! - In 2011, US just condemned violence saying the Syrian government should just "address the legitimate aspirations of its people" - Clinton said US would probably not intervene as they saw Assad as a "reformer" - Sanctions - Condemning assad on "wrong side of history" - Asked assad to step down - 2013 finally funded rebel group AND THEN - In 2017, trump decided to halt CIA programme THERE WAS IMPACT EVEN BEFORE INTERVENTIONS - U.S. sanctions on Syrian banks have made the transfer of funds into the country nearly impossible. Even when a transaction is legal, banks are reluctant to process funds related to Syria for risk of incurring violation fees. This has given rise to an unofficial and unregulated network of money exchanges that lacks transparency, making it easier for extremist groups like ISIS and al Qaeda to divert funds undetected. The difficulty of transferring money is also preventing aid groups from paying local staff and suppliers, which has "delayed or prevented the delivery of development assistance in both government and besieged areas," according to the report.

The Red Cross/ Red Crescent

WHAT IS IT - works on principles of humanity, impartiality, neutrality, independence, voluntary service, unity, universality PURPOSE/ MISSION - Provides humanitarian assistance, to "make life bearable" for the communities struggling - Mitigate issues present in the area - Syrian Arab Red Crescent is the key health care provider in Syria, providing free basic and emergency health care. The Red Crescent is the only humanitarian actor that has been able to run health services also in the hard-to-reach areas. - Syrian Arab Red Crescent plays a key role in ensuring access to safe drinking water and sanitation. Providing people with hygiene kits is one of the priorities for maintaining health of vulnerable people. - The Red Crescent provides the internally displaced people with basic shelter and household items such as mattresses, blankets, sleeping bags, tarpaulins and kitchen sets. SUCCESS - British Red Cross and SARC have provided 580,000 food items. - People have received over 1.5 million other items such as blankets and mattresses. - Cash grants support Syrian refugees in Lebanon - They have helped the Lebanese Red Cross to reach 2,900 Syrian refugee families and Lebanese host families. This support is given through cash grants that allow people to buy essentials including food and blankets, and pay the rent. - Giving money helps make their support more flexible and effective because families can buy what they need most. It also puts more money into the local economy. STRUGGLES: - (by june 2013) 20 Syrian Arab Red Crescent Society members have lost their lives since the start of the conflict. In many cases they were victims of the deliberate targeting of vehicles clearly marked with the Red Crescent emblem. - - Equally worrying is the rise in deliberate attacks on health workers and facilities, which are protected under international humanitarian law. - Other practices, such as placing military equipment within hospital grounds, endangering staff and patients, or carrying out reprisal attacks against health workers suspected of informing on opposition activity, have added to the burden on the health system. - As a result, medical staff have fled abroad, leaving women to give birth in unsafe and unsanitary conditions, or people suffering chronic conditions unable to access treatment EVIDENCE OF THIS - In April 2019, red crescent worker abducted by IS -Ms Akavi was held by the Islamic State (IS) group and there is evidence she was alive in late 2018, the Red Cross says. - Ms Akavi, a citizen of New Zealand, is a 62-year-old nurse who has carried out 17 field missions. Alaa Rajab and Nabil Bakdounes, both Syrian nationals, worked as drivers who delivered humanitarian assistance in the country. CORRUPTION? - The ICRC has recently had to fend off criticism spurred by a video of Assad driving himself on the road to Eastern Ghouta, in which the Syrian president briefly drives behind an ICRC vehicle. - Some anti-government commentators seized upon the video as evidence that the aid organization provided him with protection. - The ICRC responded by noting that the video appeared to be filmed near one of Damascus's busiest squares — the ICRC vehicle was not protecting Assad but just one of many on a crowded thoroughfare. - These facts, however, seem to have done little to stop criticism of the ICRC from spreading within anti-Assad circles. "Wounded children did not exit from Ghouta," one opposition banner featuring the image reads. "But the criminal Bashar al-Assad entered it."

Arab Spring 2011

Wave of pro-democracy revolts that led to three North African dictators being overthrown in 2011. Tunisia (he fled), Egypt (he was arrested), Libya (he was killed). Anti-government protests throughout the region. driven by disproportionately large younger population frustrated with high unemployment, poor living conditions, rising food prices, and little economic opportunity A series of popular revolts and uprisings, toppling long-serving dictators in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya, that spread throughout the Arab world beginning in 2011. A major component for these swiftly changing events was the accessibility of Internet access and satellite television. Arab Awakening sent waves of unrest rippling across Arabian states Started with Tunisian fruit seller setting himself on fire EVIDENCE: - Al-Jazeera says events in Egypt and Tunisia "gave hope to Syrian pro-democracy activists" - Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, Tunisia's long-standing president, left the country amid violent protests on 14 January 2011, after 23 years in power. - Hosni Mubarak, the Egyptian president, has resigned from his post, handing over power to the armed forces. - For example, a tweet posted on the 27th of September 2013 by the Free Syrian Army, informed followers of clashes between them and the government army in Aleppo's main square and in the quarter Suleiman al-Halabi

SECTARIANSIM NOT INFLUENTIAL

in real life those identities are often much more fluid. Recent reports from the International Crisis Group, for example, describe the complex dynamics of the war in Syria, including numerous actions by individuals and groups that defy presumably rigid sectarian lines of affiliation. The ICG reports tell story after story of courageous individuals from differing ethnic and religious backgrounds attempting to meet the everyday humanitarian needs of fellow citizens in extraordinarily difficult circumstances. A compelling new BBC documentary following the lives of five Syrian women on different sides of the conflict offers a similar message, showing that the lines of this conflict are drawn not based only on sectarian affiliation but on a complex mix of factors including personal history, employment background, geographical location, family situations, and past experiences with the regime. Syrians - - the real people on the ground who happen to live in Syria -- don't conform to the sectarian stereotypes that policymakers and pundits are promoting with such gusto. Of course, some Syrians identify strongly with their ethnic or religious communities. But like people all over the world -- including here in the United States -- many Syrians hold multiple allegiances, sympathizing with more than one sectarian identity or none at all, or are of mixed backgrounds. Such individuals do not fit neatly into the boxes of religious identification demanded by the narrative of sectarianism. This narrative's logic insists that an individual be this or that--rather than both or neither. Individuals who refuse to define themselves in these rigid terms are put in an impossible position: Either they are compelled make political claims based on sectarian identities, or they are left with no grounds from which to speak. Assad own wife and family are Sunnis It could be argued that sectarianism in Syria was overshadowed significantly by a strong sense of national identity; Syria prior to the current conflict did not have a sectarian problem on a significant scale. There were some tensions and soft rivalries between different religious communities, but the strong sense of Syrian identity was at large. Sectarian identity was clearly a secondary aspect of the conflict, the lack of interest in partition of the country on religious or ethnic lines is the prime manifestation of this. As Jorg Dostol, fellow at the Center For Syria Studies explains, "in fact, there exists no serious domestic demand in Syria to solve the current crisis by splitting the country into ethnically homogenous smaller states". This dissatisfaction could be directed towards a sectarian narrative as Syria expert Nicholas Van Dam elucidates: "The overlap of sectarian, regional and socio-economic contrasts could have a mutually strengthening effect. Popular discontent and socio-economic tensions could sometimes be directed and even stimulated through sectarian channels".