World In Crisis GEOG16001

Which continent is at greatest risk of permanent inundation? Lecture 13

Asia, most of the people living in coastal areas of the world's largest cities are poor, 90% of world's coastal poor are located in Asia - maldieves RIP

biochar

CDR Grow fast tree, heat under conditions of low o2 to form charcoal, where carbon burry, its a long winded form of afforestation

iron fertilisation schemes (ocean plankton)

CDR scheme phytoplankton take more iron as it's no longer a limiting factor which increases photosynthesis, increasing the amount of carbon removed from the atmosphere

What is the chemical formula for calcification? Orr, J.C. et al. (2015) Anthropogenic ocean acidification over the twenty-first century and its impact on calcifying organisms

CO2 + CO2- 3 + H2O --> 2HCO3 -

Brain circulation Globalisation, development and migration

Case study: taiwan, attracting experienced nationals from the USA, - Argument as follows: if highly skilled people can't be employed at home they aren't damaging the economy; qualified personal emigrate to get a life they can't get at home - This will result in remittances, and return of experienced personnel and transfer of tech; no use preventing migration

What happens when the nutrient flux reaches the coastal zone? Lecture 16

Characteristics (By IHDP) • 50% of the human population live and 70% of mega-cities lie within the coastal zone • Supports 25% of global biological productivity and 90% of global fishery production • Ecosystem services associated with the coastal zone are estimated at £11 trillion, compared to a total global estimate of £20 trillion

Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, key points:

DISCOUNT RATE (converting future economic impacts into their present day value) = ABNORMALLY LOW - emissions cut through incr energy efficiency, changes in demand, adoption of clean power, cuts in non energy emissions - 3 elements of policy required: carbon pricing, innovation supports, removal of barriers to energy efficiency - decrease deforestation and improve adaptation for LIDCs; 3 sources of uncertainty: IPCC AR4 temp is uncertain, temp change dependent on risk of climate change catastrophe >3C, uncertainty range by monte carlo sampling the IAM

Globalisation Globalisation, development and migration

Deepening/widening/speeding up of interconnectedness, key influences are scientific and tech innovation

Hypoxia threshold + definition: Breitburg, D, et al. (2018) Declining oxygen in the global ocean and coastal waters.

Dissolved oxygen <~ 60μmol l−1 set by behavioural responses of biology Oxygen below necessary for biological consumption of oxygen

Doomsters vs Boomsters for popn growth Lecture 8

Doom: high growth leads to scarcity, popn control must be part of dev. strategy Boom: popn growth promotes econ dev, with more people greater labour force, more innovation

How does biology deplete oxygen? Lecture 15

EUTROPHICATION BABYYYY 1. upwelling - nutrient rich water pours in (upwelling) 2. mass phytoplankton bloom 3. zooplankton feed on algae 4. bacteria feed on waste of zooplankton and dead algae 5. bacteria use oxygen in the water to break down waste and dead algae, creating oxygen deficiency 6. oxygen level of water drops, marine animals must migrate

UK Climate Change Act 2008

First long term binding framework to cut carbon emissions, climate change risk assessment must take place every 5 years, govt has the power to require 'bodies with functions of a public nature'

How do we carry out experiments with climate?

General Circulation Model, many models produced by forecasting groups; average taken of all models forms a pretty good prediction according to the observations over the past millennium

Why has climate changed?

Greenhouse effect. - strength of sun - amonunt of sunlight reflected - number of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere

Solar sunshade

SRM - single structure/lots of indv particles which reflect the sunlight, lots of discs or giant space station? lowers the amount of sunlight - regional issues - has a big effect on the equator (east China) but won't have much effect other places (USA)

stratospheric sulfate aerosols

SRM cost effective, coolings coincide with major volcanic eruptions which do lower the climate naturally

cloud seeding

SRM self propelled ocean vessels which create clouds; incr reflectivity of earth's surface

SRM examples, pros and cons. Working Group on Geoengineering the Climate (2009)

Surface albedo methods, cloud albedo methods, stratospheric albedo method, space albedo method + useful back up, rapid effect, could be inexpensive - termination problem, issues with undesirable side effects and large scale risk, won't target the issue of climate change, doesn't reduce ocean acidity, requires international cooperation

Disaster risk UNISDR Global assessment report (2015)

The potential loss of life, injury, or destroyed or damaged assets which could occur to a system, society or a community in a specific period of time, determined probabilistically as a function of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and capacity. 1. exposure 2. vulnerability of exposure 3. capacity to 4. deal or recover

What is the euphotic zone? Lecture 14

The zone where there is enough light to support photosynthesis - upper 100m. warming by 0.11 deg c since 1970s

Advance Australia case study Bulkeley H (2001) Governing climate change: the politics of risk society?

Through insistence of Australia's economic vulnerability and small over- all contribution to global emissions, the Federal Government repeatedly stated that it 'would not 'sell out' the national interest' to take on undue responsibilities see notes

How are sea levels measured? Lecture 12

Tide gages on the coast line

UN recommendations UN-Water (2013) Water Security and the Global Water Agenda: a UN-Water Analytical Brief.

a) Mainstream adaptation within the broader development context. b) Strengthen governance c) Improve and share knowledge d) Build long-term resilience e) Invest in cost-effective and adaptive water and wastewater management and technology transfer. f) Leverage + invest for adaptation in water management.

What is after the suboxic threshold? (name) Keeling R (2010) Ocean deoxygenation in a warming world. Annual Review of Marine Science

anoxic

desert albedo geoengineering

basically painting roofs white

Folk/ethnic model of citizenship The Age of Migration

belonging to the nation in terms of ethnicity, meaning exclusion of minorities from citizenship

UN-Water security definition UN-Water (2013) Water Security and the Global Water Agenda: a UN-Water Analytical Brief.

capacity of a population to safeguard access to adequate quantities of acceptable quality water for sustaining livelihoods, human wellbeing and socioeconomic development, for ensuring protection against water-borne pollution in a climate of peace and political sustainability

CDR examples, pros and cons. Working Group on Geoengineering the Climate (2009)

carbon capture storage, biochar, land based weathering, ocean based enhanced weathering, ocean fertilisation, CO2 capture from ambient air + treats the cause of climate change, reduces ocean acidity, no termination problem, costs the same as mitgation, tested at small scale - takes time to become fully effective, reduces plant based productivity, impact on ecosystems, requires significant infrastructure

What is Munk's sea level enigma? Milne, G.A (2009), Identifying the causes of sea- level change, Nature Geoscience

differences between observations and model predictions caused by changes in earth rotation, gravity limiting melting contribution from two ice sheets

Barriers to reducing GHG emissions

immaturity, expensive, NIMBY

Crop albedo geoengineering

modify crops so naturally reflective - brighter leaves?

Republican model of citizenship The Age of Migration

nation as political community based on laws and constitution, w/ possibility of admitting newcomers to the community provided they adhere to the laws. Eg: France

Multicultural model of citizenship The Age of Migration

nation defined as a political community, based on constitution et; but maintenance of distinctive cultures and ethnic communities. Eg: Aus, Canada, Sweden

what does ppmv stand for ?

parts per million volume

3 strategies for eliminating the gap to reduce energy demand - Sustainability w/o the hot air, Mackay

population reduction, lifestyle change and more efficient technologies

What do climate models tell us?

sea surface temp incr, net primary production decr considerable uncertainty w/ large error bars

Tans-national model of citizenship The Age of Migration

social and cultural identities of transnational communities transcend national boundaries; different forms of belongings

Populism definition Mamonova, N. and Franquesa, J. (2019). Populism, neoliberalism and agrarian movements in Europe

we use populism to refer to 'the deliberate political act of aggregating disparate and even competing and contradictory class and group interests and demands into a relatively homogenised voice, i.e., "us, the people", against an "adversarial them" for tactical or strategic political purposes. Political style rather than an ideology

Negatives of bioplastics Van Sebille, E., Spathi, C., and Gilbert A. (2016). The ocean plastic pollution challenge: towards solutions in the UK - Grantham Briefing Paper 19

• Higher costs of production compared to petroleum- based plastics • Separate sorting required to avoid cross- contamination of the recycling stream • Acidification of regular compost • Increased quantities of starch-based biodegradable plastics in waterways can cause pollution due to their very oxygen-intensive breakdown process. • Adverse littering trends due to the belief that biodegradable plastics will disappear quickly.

Benefits of bioplastics Van Sebille, E., Spathi, C., and Gilbert A. (2016). The ocean plastic pollution challenge: towards solutions in the UK - Grantham Briefing Paper 19

• Reduced greenhouse gas emissions compared to petro-plastics, process- and material-specific. • Reduced embodied carbon dioxide • Reduced leaching of toxic constituents at end-of-life • Direct bio-conversion into compost in industrial composting facilities

Resilience Lecture 7

"The ability of a system and its component parts to anticipate, absorb, accommodate, or recover from the effects of a hazardous event in a timely and efficient manner, including through ensuring the preservation, restoration, or improvement of its essential basic structures and functions"

When was the world last at 1000 CO2 ppmv?

"early eocene"

When was the last at 411 CO2 ppmv (original level)

"early pliocene"

Economic remittances for development Globalisation, development and migration

+ remittances - crucial factor and sometimes larger than FDI, multiplier effect, leads to improvements in economic development and education - dependent on proper implementation, stable currencies and favourable policies of migration - spent on consumption rather than capital - incr inequality and inflation - promotes dependency

Vulnerability (2 types) Lecture 7

- "The propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected" - Geographic - socoeconomic; linked with vulnerability, preparedness, results, response, reconstruction.

Carbon storage (carbon cycle) in the ocean Lecture 14

- 'biological pump' - microscopic algae lock up carbon as living matter, then are consumed by animals - photosynthesis limited by light and nutrient availability - ocean warming affects nutrient availability from deeper levels of the ocean

Return Period Lecture 13

- 1%, also known as recurrence interval, avg length of time between occurrences of a flood of a given or greater magnitude, frequency of coastal flooding events grows rapidly with incr sea level - the larger the event, the less frequently it occurs

Impact of permanent inundation Lecture 13

- 122 countries at least 10% of current popn weighted area directly affected by coastal submergence - 25 coastal megacities have at least 50% of popn wighted area land affected - total popn on land below threshold connected to ocean = 1.3bn, or 19% of global popn in 2010

Projections of sea level rise Responding to the Threat of Sea Level Rise, National Academy of Engineering (2017)

- 17 cm global seal level rise during 20th c - rising about 2.3 mil/year - rise between 0.2 and 1m 2100, depends how much earth warms - temps will affect melting of land based ice, Greenland and Antarctica

Stats of coastal area living Milne, G.A (2009), Identifying the causes of sea- level change, Nature Geoscience

- 200 mil people living within coastal flood plains - 2 mill square km of land - 1 trn dollars of assets lying less than 1 m above sea level

Atmosphere: temperature predictions of IPCC Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis

- 21st century: likely to exceed 1.5 deg c relative to 1850 to 1900 for all RCP scenarios except RCP 2.6 - Global mean surface temp change likely be in the range of 0.3-0.7 for 2016-2035 relative to 1986-2005 - likely in range of CMIP5 model simulations - more frequent hot and fewer cold temperatures incr.

Climate change and UK Health predictions Health Effects of Climate Change in the UK 2008, 2012 (Not required reading but from Lecture 3 slides)

- 25% chance there will be a heat wave in the next 10 years which could kill 3,000 (small compared to other cold deaths) - Air pollution causes ~ 11,900 premature deaths annually, projected incr 4% by 2030 - water quality and mental health issues associated w/ flooding - incr UV exposure, small incr risk from malaria, ticks, lyme disease ect

Transboundary water + conflicts Global Water Security Issues (GWSI) Series, UNESCO Publishing, Paris (2019)

- 267 transboundary river basins - existing conflicts strained by water shortages, water diplomacy required - water wars - 3 categories: international water wars, int. water conflicts and localised water conflicts

Radicalisation and environmental politics - questions on citizenship, security, neoliberalism, authoritarianism in relation to environmental politics McCarthy, J. (2019). Authoritarianism, populism, and the environment

- 3 Afro-Brazilian communities in Brazil's Bay of Aratu - reliance on commitment to extractivism and racialised violence - Guyana - politics of infrastructure to unearth flood control/irrigation measures to build + maintain authoritarian and racialised state - Trump's proposed wall on the Mexico-Us border for nativist, isolationist imagery, "america first mindset"

How does the ocean respond to warming over short term periods beyond the mean state? (Marine heat waves)

- 5 consecutive days >5 where SST exceeds a relative (percentile-based) threshold can impact ecosystems - recorded everywhere - caused by warm air (land/amospheric heat waves), climate modes and ocean currents - likely to have doubled in frequency between 1982 and 2016, longer lasting, more intense and extensive - 84-90% of all heatwaves attributable to climate change

Flood protection in the Netherlands case study Responding to the Threat of Sea Level Rise, National Academy of Engineering (2017)

- 60% netherlands below sea level - another 60% prone to flooding. 2/3rds protected by dikes, 1/3rd defended by natural dunes - proximity to melting ice caps in Scandinavia and Greenland - population is growing - flood management over flood protection initially, but then there's no end to that. - so they start opening up more space for rivers and where water can pool w/o causing damages - working with the US army corp of engineers to limit risks of flood and consequences - greater awareness and preparedness for large scale evacuations

key stats of UN-Water (2013) Water Security and the Global Water Agenda: a UN-Water Analytical Brief.

- 70% ind waste dumped into untreated waters - 0.3% freshwater in rivers and lakes - 30% ground water - 70% ice, snow cover in mountain regions - 148 countries w/ transboundary river basins - increasing unequal access to water aggravates social fragility, between 1991 and 2000, 665,000 people died in 2,557 natural disasters 90% water related - predicted rainfall variability can push 12 mill people into absolute poverty while some predictions indicate global malnutrition ^ 25% - IPCC: crop yeilds down by 50% by 2020 - 2011 alone, 184,000 Somalis fled due to conflicts relating to water shortages

Moving forward from research: Milne, G.A (2009), Identifying the causes of sea- level change, Nature Geoscience

- 70-75% of IPCC projected rise is due to ocean temperature change, influence of ice dynamical change is identified as major source of uncertainty - Improve understanding of processes that control ice discharge + marine terminating glaciers

Hurricane Maria + Erma, 2017 Response Lecture 7

- 80% agriculture loss - 3.4 mil without power - criticism of official response - limitations to relief efforts due to historical factors (Puerto Rico w/ US relationship - 1920 Merchant Marine Act "Jones Act", only American ships can ship there) - exposed lack of debt management by local government (due to restraints by the US) and extreme vulnerability

Key stats of paper below Vorosmarty, C. J. et al., (2010) Global threats to human water security and river biodiversity. Nature

- 80% of world's popn live in areas where incident human water security/biodiversity exceeds 75th% - Impact of development very evident, high incident threat, water resource development and pollution, dominant contributing theme for human water security and biodiversity

Stats of seabirdys :( Lecture 18

- 90% of seabirds have plastic in their guts - 99% of all species by 2050 95% ingestion - 50% of birds ingesting plastics based on DMS were responsive, lower responding rate for non dms; nesting behaviour extends this analysis

Key aspects of water security UN-Water (2013) Water Security and the Global Water Agenda: a UN-Water Analytical Brief.

- Access to safe and sufficient drinking water at affordable costs - Protection of livelihoods, human rights - Preservation of ecosystems - Water supplies for socioeconomic development and activities - Collection and treatment of water used to protect human life and environment from pollution - Transboundary cooperation, good governance - Cope with uncertainties and risks of water related hazards

pathways and distributions of marine plastics Van Sebille, E., Spathi, C., and Gilbert A. (2016). The ocean plastic pollution challenge: towards solutions in the UK - Grantham Briefing Paper 19

- Adrift: measures pathway of plastic found on the surface of the ocean on UK shorelines - difficult to measure and make a detailed map - little information on how all plastic is distributed - 7,000-236,000 tonnes of plastic floating in the ocean

Impacts of the Homer Dixon Model on policy planning Betsy Hartmann (1998). Population, environment and security: a new trinity

- Africa through Kaplan (Journalist) is not pretty, intensely racist and reminiscent of colonial imagery - Goldberg (journalist) - affect US policy/opinion, overpopulation considered a key cause of Rwandan genocide in mainstream environmental and policy circles - population resources dilemma, stagnation in agriculture, ethnic divisions, nepotism and institutional failure

Paris (2015) COP 21

- Agreed to keep mean global temperature rise to below 2 °C, and pursue efforts to limit warming to < 1.5 °C (all relative to the pre-industrial Defined what dangerous meant - Each country made Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) - Rather than setting international targets, country asked to make voluntary agreements.

uncertainties with measuring ocean CO2 content Orr, J.C. et al. (2015) Anthropogenic ocean acidification over the twenty-first century and its impact on calcifying organisms

- Air CO2 change compensates for changes in surface DIC caused by changes in marine productivity and circulation - greater ocean stratification in high latitudes, decr nutrients, incr light availability - alters carbon concentration - atmospheric CO2 trajectory uncertain

Salination process/ salt water intrusion Lecture 13

- Aquifier has fresh water, drawn for use + salt water penetrates into aquifier - combined with rising seas + increase pressures, water is pushed further in land, pulling brackish and fresh awter up - east coast

2 systems of measuring sea level change Milne, G.A (2009), Identifying the causes of sea- level change, Nature Geoscience

- Argo, autonomous floats which sink and ascend monitoring temperature and salinity, 1-2 km of the ocean - GRACE (Gravity Recovery Climate And Experiment) satellite mission, measures the global grav field monthly; they use mass estimates bc difficult to get signal over oceans, its insensitive to geocentre motion and the vertical motion of the ocean floor; possible to determine transfer of land-based water to ocean - together they can sep contributions of sea-level change from changes in ocean water density and ocean mass

Methods of analysing non linear trends such as oil and electricity consumption Norouzi N et al. When pandemics impact economies and climate change: Exploring the impacts of COVID-19 on oil and electricity demand in China.

- Artificial Neural Networks - Other non linear regression and hybrid models used - identify and determine the rsip between input and output - more efficient and lower error - important to forecast energy use for providing energy for homes and economic activity combined with the supply shocks - used in Thailand, Jordan, South Korea

List the two types of geoengineering Working Group on Geoengineering the Climate (2009)

- CDR: direct reduction of CO2 concs, sucking CO2 out of the atmosphere - SRM: operate directly on the radiative fluxes in the Earth's energy balance through reducing the amount of sunlight absorbed in the earth's surface (reflecting and absorbing)

Future of O2 ocean observance Keeling R (2010) Ocean deoxygenation in a warming world. Annual Review of Marine Science

- CLIVAR - Climate variability and predicability Repeat hydrography programme - reoccupying hydrographic sections sampled in 1990s as part of joing World Ocean Circulation Experiment + joint ocean flux study survey - may take 20-30 years to establish magnitude of long term O2 trends - "optode" - reliable and stable sea water O2 sensors w/ existence of Argo profiling floats - Argo array provides high quality measurments of temp + salnity of upper 2000m of ocean - goal: accuracy and stability of sensors - target precision required - difficulty: accuracy and long term drift

Impact of wider social and economic impacts of budgets (Building a low carbon economy, Climate Change Committee)

- Carbon leakage mitigated through control - address fuel poverty through energy efficiency, income transfers - security of supply impacts from intermittent generation can be managed national authorities to play a role

Calcium carbonate saturation state - Ω Lecture 17

- Concentrations of calcium ions x carbonate ions / solubility product (dependent on pressure, temp, salinity) - Ω>1, solution is super saturated, precipitation favoured - Ω<1, solution is undersaturated and dissolution is favoured - changes in calcium ions are small, hence Ω mainly controlled by carbonate - Aragonite and calcite are types of calcium carbonate

Copenhagen (2009) COP 15

- Contraction and convergence

Impacts of dead zone hypoxia Lecture 15

- DO directly + indirectly drive key physiological processes in corals (inc respiration, photosynthesis + calcification) - 20 instances which hypoxia was implicated in the pass mortality of coral reefs - wide spread mortality or avoidance by mobile organisms, blue marlin

What is the impact of changes in ocean productivity on global ecosystems? Lecture 14

- Different zones of ocean differently exposed to risk - biggest effect on existing marine biodiversity hot spots, particularly fish mammals and sea birds

3 scenarios of how a risk society takes shape Bulkeley H (2001) Governing climate change: the politics of risk society?

- Division between political and sub political realm - Democratisation of technological and economic development (fail to account for sub-politics) - Emancipatory potential of risk society realised through differential sub-politics

What are some observation networks providing data? Breitburg, D, et al. (2018) Declining oxygen in the global ocean and coastal waters.

- Drifters and autonomous platforms - Optical oxygen sensors mounted on Argo gloats - Accuracy - improved by STOX (Switchable trace amount oxygen) - And novel trace oxygen optical sensors - provide precise oxygen quantification + detect concentrations as low as ~nmol kg-1 - For coastal waters, it is also important to develop sensors that are affordable for use in low-income developing countries (LIDCs) and that can be used to generate reliable data from citizen science.

Key points of disaster risk from UNISDR Global assessment report (2015)

- Economic losses from natural disasters - LICs and MICs won't pass the test of fiscal resilience - No sustainable development until disaster risk is introduced - Unsustainable overconsumption of energy > planet's biocapacity by nearly 50% - Global avg loss expected to incr up to $415bn due to infrastructure development - worsened by climate change - SIDs - future disaster losses = exitential threat, expected to lose 20x more capital stock each year - Annual losses in SIDS = 20% of social expenditure, 1.19% in NA, >1 in europe + central asia

Environment as political proxy and arena for security + citizenship McCarthy, J. (2019). Authoritarianism, populism, and the environment

- Egyptian states blame floods on terrorism rather than climate change/ infrastructure - turkey - water management in context of neoliberal authoritarianism, reduced water for urbanisation - Uganda - management of fisheries and lakes to win national elections - similar story with china shifting production

Assessing the cost of mitigation - Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change

- Expected cost cutting 550 ppm CO2 trajectory = 1%, of GDP in 2050 - costs not evenly distributed, new markets will be created - impacts on energy and forestry - cost of mitigation much smaller than adaptation - unbated climate change can cost up to 20% of the world's gdp, IPCC 2018 special report: total avg energy related mitigation investment for period 2015-2050 in limiting warming to 1.5 = 900bn USD 2015, costs 3-4 x higher than pathways below 2 deg c

Hurricane Katrina case study (2005) Lecture 7

- Flordia, hit New Orleans 29th Aug, breached levees - many did not leave - understand inequality, disproportionate effects on African-American women and children - clear lack of protection and resources (rather care) for these communities by the government

Fallout and difficulties with Beck's global risk perspective approach Beck: A Critical Introduction to the Risk Society

- Further examinations of portrayal of reflexivity and functions of media or logic - risk society pertains specific areas of interest to environment, post modern culture and anxieties - big picture at expense of clarity

Sources and origin of ocean plastics Van Sebille, E., Spathi, C., and Gilbert A. (2016). The ocean plastic pollution challenge: towards solutions in the UK - Grantham Briefing Paper 19

- Germany, Italy, France and Spain and uk dominate plastic production - 80% plastic pollution originates from land based sources - illegal dumping and inadequate waste management, coastal littering, discharge of storm water, natural disasters, marine debris

Projections of climate change w/ temp and water cycle - IPCC Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Summary

- Global surface temperature change for the end of the 21st century is likely to exceed 1.5°C relative to 1850 to 1900 for all RCP scenarios except RCP2.6. It is likely to exceed 2°C for RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, and more likely than not to exceed 2°C for RCP4.5 - Changes in the global water cycle in response to the warming over the 21st century will not be uniform.

Summary of Breitburg, D, et al. (2018) Declining oxygen in the global ocean and coastal waters.

- Global warming = primary cause of deoxygenation (acidification and incr temp linked) - greater impact on developing nations for data we do not have - Paradox - greater productivity in nutrient rich coastal systems and upwelling areas associated w/ ox min zones to support the world's prolific fisheries - limited by data and climate model projections - ocean lost 2% oxygen over past 50 years - Ocean min zones expanded by 4.5 mil

Migration and globalisation Lecture 9

- Globalisation promotes migration - Facilitates and shapes migration - incr demand for both high and low skilled labour

Arctic ice sheets summary Lecture 12

- Greenland more sensitive to warming, contribute more to sea level rise = 8mm - Antarctica - 4mm

Sea level fingerprints of Antartica and Greenland

- Greenland: mass loss scenario equiv to 1mm/year averaged sea level rise - Antarctica: 1mm/year of globally averaged sea-level rise - sea level rise wont' be the same everywhere, reduced gravitational attraction of shrinking ice sheets

Observed changes in ocean chemistry Good, P. et al (2018) Recent progress in understanding climate thresholds

- IPPC AR5 on ocean carbonate chemistry at 3 sites, decr pH in upper ocean at rates of -0.0011 to -0.0024/year - north atlantic - superimposed on natural decr on pH w/ depth - less tempral variability of pH in ocean mid-waters + greater depth; fewer long term measurements here tho - long term red of up to 30% in natural calcification and growth rates of corals, affecting great barrier reef - observations at natural shallow water CO2 vents - marked decr in overall biodiversity as pH declines

Key stats from IPCC (2014) working group II report Health Chapter

- If economic development continues as forecast, it is expected that mortality rates will continue to fall in most countries; the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates the global burden of disease (measured in disability adjusted life years per capita) will decrease by 30% by 2030 - substantial improvements in HDI accompanied by incr inequality + high consumption of scarce environmental resources - High HDI countries less affected by floods, droughts ect

Statistics from Sustainability w/o the hot air, Mackay

- Imported stuff usually omitted from Britain's energy footprint, but the cost of overseas manuf. Energy cost = 40kWh/day/person - 1/4 of current energy consumption by growing energy crops requires 75% of Britain to be covered w/ biomass plantations - Providing 4% of current energy consumption from wave power requires 500km Atlantic coastline to be completely filled w/ wave farms - avg European energy consumption of 125 kWh/d per person to be provided from these country-sized renewable sources

What are some trends for the Tropical ocean oxygen levels? Keeling R (2010) Ocean deoxygenation in a warming world. Annual Review of Marine Science

- In the Atlantic and Pacific, downward trends in O2 of 0.9 to 3.4 μmol kg−1 decade−1 were found in the 300 to 700 m layer, - vertical expansion of the zone of hypoxia, including a shoaling of the depth of the 60 μmol kg−1 horizon from 245 to 170 m in the eastern Pacific region. - possible explanation may be changes in the wind forcing associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)

Key stats on flooding Hirabayashi et al., 2013 Global flood risk under climate change, Nature Climate Change

- Incr flood frequency in Southeast Asia, Peninsular India, Eastern Africa + north half of Andes, globally, flood frequency increases in 42% and decreases in 18% of the land grid cells. - Low confidence in projections of changes in fluvial floods, confidence lwo due to limited evidence - regional changes are complex - Atmosphere Ocean General Circulation Model - 2 employed historical and anthropogenic simulations - change in flooding between a present + future time period obtained as a change in return period - 21c, consistency of future flood direction change among AOGMCs high - SE Asia, Peninsular India, eastern Africa - 42% incr in flood frequency global land flood frequency in more than half of them - most reigons except South America, does frequency of precipitation, flooding, runoff, heavy precipitation and discharge expected to incr - incr flood exposure due to incr exposure in many low-latitude regions in Asia and Africa

Ecosystem stressors amplified in deoxygenated environment examples Lecture 15

- Incr risk shell dissolution - coral mortality

How does decreasing acidity affect the ocean generally? Lecture 17

- Increasing inorganic carbon concentrations --> stimulate photosynthesis? - Decreasing Ω --> increase dissolution pressure on CaCO3 structures, Forcing more dissolving of calcium carbonate - Decreasing [CO32-] --> remove the building blocks of CaCO3 - Changing ocean chemistry --> biochemical speciation, reactions, cycles

impacts of ocean plastic Van Sebille, E., Spathi, C., and Gilbert A. (2016). The ocean plastic pollution challenge: towards solutions in the UK - Grantham Briefing Paper 19

- Ingestion, affecting the food chain - bioaccumulation/biomagnification - enganglement from ghost fishing + transport of non-native and invasive species - reduced recreational opportunities and loss of aesthetic value - public health and safety hazards - economic impacts

Types of migrant Lecture 9

- International vs internal - voluntary vs forced - legal vs irregular - economic vs political

Key areas of threat Responding to the Threat of Sea Level Rise, National Academy of Engineering (2017)

- Jacksonville Florida - Alaska - Japan - Tokyo - small islands particularly vulnerable

Key conclusions of the paper below Norouzi N et al. When pandemics impact economies and climate change: Exploring the impacts of COVID-19 on oil and electricity demand in China.

- LICs strongly affected 1.6% GDP cost compared to HICs - 0.3% for previous health crises - Ebola cancelled economic gains of Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone - China first country to suffer, second largest economy, highest energy consumption whilst committed to reducing CO2 - quantitative analysis to explore vulnerabilities of different economic sectors (macroeconomic factors) w/ focus on petrol and electricity demand especially in relation to COVID-19

Forced migration The Age of Migration

- Leave because of persecution, human rights abuse and violence making lives unsustainable - Often poor and politically unstable themselves - But there is selectivity - mainly those with financial resources and education who are able to migrate

Key diseases + areas of growth IPCC (2014) working group II report Health Chapter

- Malaria (Africa, SE Asia) - Dengue (Asia Pacific) - Tick borne diseases/ Lyme (Europe, Russia, Mongolia, China, Asia, NA) - Hemorrhagic fever w/ renal syndrome - global - plague - endemic in many locations world wide

Populism: Adoption of environmental issues as part of platform Lecture 6

- Marine Le Pen, Jair Bolsonaro, Blair, Clinton , Biden potentially - in the aim of protected borders and environment - environmentalism tied to localism, protectionism and identity - restricting multiculturalism by protecting the motherland

Spatial patterns of primary production indicate: Lecture 14

- NPP incr where plankton are light limited, decreases in nutrient limited areas - decr particularly in Western Pacific

Limits of agrarian populism Mamonova, N. and Franquesa, J. (2019). Populism, neoliberalism and agrarian movements in Europe

- Neoliberal ideologies of consumerism, competition and consumption are still attractive

Social transformation (as a result of globalisation) - key points Globalisation, development and migration

- North South inequality important to note; some countries don't fit in like the transitional countries (former soviet bloc) or new industrial economies (asia and latin america) - Green revolution in agriculture promoted by higher productivity, pressure on poorer reigons because of subsidies - Urban employment can't keep the pace of growth for millions of newcommers - national dimension of migration - brain drains exacerbate inequality

Impact of changes in aragonite on generally and on corals at RCP 8.5 Good, P. et al (2018) Recent progress in understanding climate thresholds

- O = changes in aragonite saturation state - monthly occurrence of aragonite undersaturation (O<1) at surface + 100m water depth incr rapidly in most areas where atmospheric CO2 levels projected 500-650ppm - Coral shells made of aragonite, sensitive to cold water and saturation state of O2, most tropical reefs occur where O>3, current change to rapid for coral adaptation = huge crisis

Why is oxygen the most important control in surface waters? Keeling R (2010) Ocean deoxygenation in a warming world. Annual Review of Marine Science

- O2 solubility which incr w/ lower temperatures - oxygen utilisation mainly at surface w/ higher productivity, bacterial oxidaiton of organic particles sink from sunlit areas at surface - sinking flux of organic matter, depletes O2 while adding carbon and nutrients to subsurface waters - falls with depth by factor of 10 to 50 between 100 and 1000m

Nitrogen + deoxygenating oceans Lecture 15

- OMZs hot spot for nitrogen loss from ocean to atmosphere N2 and N2O (byproduct of nitrification) gas through bacterial processes due to low O2 content - denitrification - annamox, anaerobic ammonium oxidation - 1/3rd of nitrous oxide emitted by ocean to atmosphere, IPCC AR5: N2O 3rd largest radiative forcing - Low DO waters may encourage N2O production via both pathway - +ve feedback of climate O2 down, more N2O produced

Ocean stats of Climate Change 2013 Report Summary for policymakers

- Ocean warming dominates the increase in energy stored in the climate system, accounting for more than 90% of the energy accumulated between 1971 and 2010 - Greater near the surface upper 75 m warmed by 0.11 °C - regions of high salinity where evaporation dominates becomes more saline, regions of low salinity where regions dominates have become fresher

Advantages of smart water tech Global Water Security Issues (GWSI) Series, UNESCO Publishing, Paris (2019)

- Reducing labour costs - Conserving water and reducing costs by analysing usage and dynamically adapting supply to demand, or providing sufficient awareness and pricing mechanisms to entice consumers to do so on their own. - Continuously monitoring water quality and responding early to what can become highly damaging and costly problems. - case studies in India, Singapore, Malta, Melbourne

Why has populism increased in Europe? Mamonova, N. and Franquesa, J. (2019). Populism, neoliberalism and agrarian movements in Europe

- Regional history, agrarian structure and rural culture - top down initiatives ill equipped to resolve political crisis - exploitation of rural resentment against elites, immigrants and minorities - economic distress

UN Convention on climate change (1992)

- Stabilisation of "greenhouse gas" concentrations to prevent dangerous human-induced interference with the climate system." - Every country in the world signed up to this 'dangerous' - big issue as this is a subjective measure. Can say dangerous but not do anything about it - Annual COP (Conference of Parties) meetings Important for setting the international agenda.

Circular migration Globalisation, development and migration

- The temporary movement of a migrant worker between home and host countries to seek employment; often seasonal employment - enforced by strict termination of visas, savings account only accessible at home - carrot and stick method - seen in Spain and Italy, Spain and Ecuador (no language barrier here)

Threshold for suboxia + what happens after? Keeling R (2010) Ocean deoxygenation in a warming world. Annual Review of Marine Science

- When O2 drops below ~5 μmol l−1 - nitrate replaces o2, once nitrate exhausted, biogeochemistry dominated by sulfate reducing microbes - lowers denitrification, limiting nutrients for global ocean productivity

Neo-Malthusians Lecture 8

- accept all conclusions except moral restraint - favour contraception - environmental collapse added to 3 classical checks - tragedy of the commons, Garrett Hardin - Paul Ehrlich "population explosion"

Approaches to adaptation Responding to the Threat of Sea Level Rise, National Academy of Engineering (2017)

- adaptation consists of "adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities." - planned retreat or hardcore protection infrastructure - important to educate the public about the problem - monitoring and evaluating determines if goals are being met - informatics and modelling can produce better warnings and evacuations - adaptation is a process - Hold the line, (managed) retreat from shoreline + displacement, advance the line

Agrarian Populism Mamonova, N. and Franquesa, J. (2019). Populism, neoliberalism and agrarian movements in Europe

- aggregates class and group interests w/ people and other, often 'elite' - promote food sovereignty, sustainable development, agrarian justice, defending traditions - more progressive alternative to rw populism as there's no scapegoating of immigrants and minorities

World population growth's 3 revolutions Lecture 8

- agriculural rev - pre 1000bc; no longer relying soley on livestock - ind rev - 1750 - medical revolution - 1950; improved fertility and fast growth

Observed impacts on ecosystems IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (2019)

- alter ecosystems of all types - since 1950, marine species have undergone shifts in geographical range - coastal ecosystems affected by ocean warming incl intensified marine heatwaves, acidification, loss of O2 and salinity - shrinking cryosphere --> neg impacts on food security, water resources

Defining single-temperature trajectories of different forms of GMSL Bittermann, K (2017) Global mean sea-level rise in a world agreed upon in Paris, Environmental Research Letters

- approach exhibit a spread that corresponds to diff policy targets w/ single climate sensitivity - different shapes of idealised temp trajectories - stabilisation or overshoot - idealised approach, societal decisions directly affect emissions of climate forcers but only indirectly affects temperature

Populism's interaction w/ environment - climate scepticism Lecture 6

- arguments over validity of climate science, positioned to manufacture uncertainty and insecurity - national sovereignty - environ. regs. hurts the working class - UKIP, Mamonova and Franquesa, EU Common Agricultural Policy

Contemporary environmental risks according to Beck Bulkeley H (2001) Governing climate change: the politics of risk society?

- arise as unintended consequences of modernity - distanciated over time but inescapable - invisible to senses, dependent on scientific knowledge

Rate of ocean CO2 incr and what is its impact on the ocean Good, P. et al (2018) Recent progress in understanding climate thresholds

- around 10x faster than natural ocean acidification over the past 66mil years - response in the global ocean chemistry to atmospheric CO2 forcing, limited capacity to accelerate future recovery - particular concern of aragonite undersaturation in high latitudes, impact on zooplankton and marine food webs, tropical coral reefs particularly vulnerable, petrapods and arctic krill in particular - taxonomic variability is high and can be sex-specific - knock on effect for tourism, coastal protection, global economic value of the ecosystem = $1000bil/year

Subsampling temperature projections generated under RCP 2.6 Bittermann, K (2017) Global mean sea-level rise in a world agreed upon in Paris, Environmental Research Letters

- assessing the consequences of achieving 1.5 deg c stabilisation with diff probabilities, subsampled until exceeded 1.5 deg c limit until subset was obtained that achieved a likelihood of not exceeding this limit - advantage: specify exactly probabliliyy of exceeding the temp limit and compare GMSL projections under circumstances yeilding desired tolerable probability of exceeding 1.5 deg

Key predictions of paper Dettori et al. (2018) Increased human and economic losses from river flooding with anthropogenic warming. Nature Climate Change

- at 3°C warming, this amount could range between 90 (113) and 186 (241) million people for SSP5 (SSP3), with an average increase of more than 120% (188%) - strongest rise in popn exposed to flooding = asia, parts of africa, south america and western europe, decrease = middle east, eastern europe, north africa owing decr in precipitation - flood mortality to rise by 70% for 1.5, 103% for 2 and 180% for 3°C. india accounts for 18% of global mortality - direct damages = 110bn euros/year - More than half (56%) of the present global direct losses occur in Asia, predominantly in China (42%), followed by Europe (22%), the Americas (9%), Oceania (7%) and Africa (6%). - direct damages as share of gdp decr with warming esp with fast-growing economies; 58 mil people exposed to flooding globally, more than 1/2 of whom who live in Asia

Emancipatory catastrophe - is there any cause for hope? (relationship between COVID-19 and climate change) Lecture 11

- attempt to encourage economic growth through the environment - 4 countries investing in green recovery: germany, france, UK, spain - issue with binary outcomes, there's a grey area - demonstrated that state intervention can have very significant impact, evident by lockdown - demonstrates the potential for rapid technological and societal change

Salination - where is it having an effect and what is the impact? Lecture 13

- bangladesh, vietnam, nile delta - sea level rising causing coastal erosion of ground and surface water, damaging farm land, harvesting salt instead of crops - loss of income, displacement, economic costs - loss of balance between fresh + sea water

Limitations of the Demographic Transition Model Lecture 8

- based on experiences of the West - Demographic entrapment (sub-saharan africa) - China, Thailand - quick progress due to economic changes

Imperial Model of Citizenship The Age of Migration

- belonging to the nation in terms of being a subject of the same power or ruler; allowed for integration of multiethnic empires eg commonwealth

At what depths are the O2 minimum? And where are they? Keeling R (2010) Ocean deoxygenation in a warming world. Annual Review of Marine Science

- between 400-1200m, near base of permanent thermocline; OMZs are local hot spots where O2 levels are low - OMZs located in regions w/o high rates of O2 utilisation, ventilation and circulation longest here - Atlantic and Pacific - largest in North Pacific - relatively poor ventilation at high latitudes - Equator too, North Atlantic gyre - well ventilated due to strong inflow of water from Southern Hemisphere as part of Atlantic overturning circulation - OMZ in North Indian ocean - doesn't fit the patten of an OMZ hosted by eastern tropical gyre, lacking in a source of subpolar water from within hemisphere

Strategies to protect against coastal risk, costs and benefits

- building of hard defences - soft defences like beach nourishment and dune restoration - reinforcement of shorelines through planting vegetation + effective, some preserve beach associated with tourism, some maintain beach habitat - maintenance costs, lack of flexibility, effectiveness varies over time, requires monitoring

Long term perspective of sea level change Clark et al (2016) Consequences of twenty-first century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change

- carbon cycle and climate system = large inertia, carbon emissions stabilised/reduced, CO2 concs will remain high + sea level will increase --> it will be irreversible on timescales of centuries to millenia and longer - Palaeoclimate record helps to place understanding of size and rapidity of recent and future climate changes in the context of Earth - Deglacial warming proceeds incrementally over nearly 8,000 years - projected warming occurs over next few centuries at very quick rates - suggesting RPC 4.5 guaranteed - GMSL continued to rise another 45m over next 8 milennia

Environmental impacts measured by? Norouzi N et al. When pandemics impact economies and climate change: Exploring the impacts of COVID-19 on oil and electricity demand in China.

- carbon emissions model to predict impacts, prediction = 2.2bn tonnes fall in CO2, which is optimistic - emissions will rise rapidly

How are non-calcifying species eg. seagrasses affected by changes in ocean acidity Lecture 17

- carbonate incr following acidification, used for photosynthesis - more leaf growth due to higher conc of CO2 - measured by sugar content in leaf bc translocation

preparing public utilities to meet future challenges Responding to the Threat of Sea Level Rise, National Academy of Engineering (2017)

- case study: hurricane sandy, NY 2012 - mitigation to counter effects of climate, flooding, barriers, relocation and hardening of infrastructure - collaboration essential - utilities will also have a big effect on climate change - switching from gas to electric for the grid

Atmosphere: water cycle predictions of IPCC Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis

- changes in water cycle will not be uniform, contrast between wet and dry regions will not be uniform, strongly influenced by natural internal variability and may be affected by anthropogenic aerosol emissions - high latitudes + equatorial Pacific Ocean likely to experience incr in annual mean precipitation - eextreme precipitaiton events over most mid-latitude land masses + over wet tropical regions likely more frequent and intense - monsoons incr

Why has disease become a huge risk in today's society? Lecture 11, Monster at our door - Mike Davis, Global Threat of Avian flu

- changing human/environment/wildlife - industrial farming 'corporate livestock revolution' - neglect of vaccines by pharma - high levels of medication increase antibiotic resistance - rapid globalisation and urbanisation

California wildfires - some stats + background Lecture 7

- climate change --> droughts, sources = man made - urban development puts locations at risks, big population growth where fire hazards are, where there is bad fire management and large risk magnitute, by 2050, 645,000 houses set to be built in very high wildfire severity zones, will affect those tho have built their property their + badly affect P.O.C and working class - 'white flight'

Coastal risks are increasing. Why? Responding to Rising Seas: OECD Country Approaches to Tackling Coastal Risks (Policy Highlights) (2019)

- climate change induced sea-level rise acts as a risk multiplier by incr flood and erosion risks - uncertainty due to magnitude and pace of change, long time scales

Resilience and the corps of Engineers Responding to the Threat of Sea Level Rise, National Academy of Engineering (2017)

- coastal protection essential part Corps of Engineers to ensure infrastructure is typically right at sea level - use natural and nature based features - natural features lack engineering reliability and performance information, making it hard to use them to achieve a reliable degree of risk reduction - Relocation is not normally possible but relocation of entire communities keeps them in tact - take into account economic + political impossibility

Where do hypoxic, suboxic and anoxic conditions occur? Keeling R (2010) Ocean deoxygenation in a warming world. Annual Review of Marine Science

- coastal waters and esturies, high rates of photosynthesis --> high rates of O2 consumption - additional loss caused by eutrophication - anoxia is rare, but has occurred episodically

Ulrich Beck's background and context Lecture 10

- cold war - threats from new technologies, disasters of energy tech - pandemics and global health risks - environmental crises - new non-natural threats to humanity

Oxygen is more soluble in what conditions? Lecture 15

- cold, high latitude waters, mixing improves ventilaiton of oxygen, 140% saturation of oxygen in Antarctica - OMZs form due to combination of sluggish mixing and reasonably high production in topics and subtropics, deep ocean, E Pacific, Arabian Sea, E Atlantic - Low oxygen 'dead zones' of hypoxic waters form in coastal zone/shelf system due to nutrient run off, 10 fold incr in past 65 years, causing mass die-offs

What does a satellite altimeter do? (2019). How fast are the oceans warming? Science

- complements sparseness of in situ ocean observations to reduce bias - propagation of info where there are gaps

Advantages of semi-empirical model projects Bittermann, K (2017) Global mean sea-level rise in a world agreed upon in Paris, Environmental Research Letters

- computationally simple, run fast, large number of scenario

Tools for measuring the climate impacts on the global ocean Lecture 14

- computer models stimulate how climate might influence cycling of chemicals in ocean - observations - shipborne and autonomous, CTD = conductivity, temperature, and depth, and refers to a package of electronic instruments that measure these properties.

Homer Dickson Model issues Betsy Hartmann (1998). Population, environment and security: a new trinity

- concept of environmental scarcity, resource distribution and population growth conflated - model ignores influences of colonialism - state oddly idealised - external factors, like age, mortality and sex, natural disasters or war not taken into account Homer-Dixon's is a conservative world view where the maldistribution of both power and resources is essentially naturalized and determined by the god of scarcity. When this god of scarcity meets the devil of racism, the result is the greening of hate.

Scarcity Betsy Hartmann (1998). Population, environment and security: a new trinity

- concept with deep resonance in capitalist competitive mentalities, use unequal division of wealth to explain the ethics of poverty

Social remittances Globalisation, development and migration

- conduit for attitudes - skills conducive for change - positive impact on development - alteration that "west is best"; knowledge western ideas have led to development but also exacerbated inequality

Mispricing Risk UNISDR Global assessment report (2015)

- consequences rarely attributed to the decisions that generate risk --> no accountability --> perverse incentives - Case study: South Asia + subsaharan Africa, 60% expected to be urbanised by 2040

How do food and energy production adversely impact water quality? Lecture 16

- contaminate inland and coastal waters through eutrophication, acidification, contamination (carbon, mercury, aluminium), chemicals, soil erosion and sediment transfer, production of all sorts - UK is particularly bad for eutrophication, Michigan, Avon canal, Thames

Does development reduce migration? Globalisation, development and migration

- context of European hostility - 'if you do not help the third world, then you will have these poor people in our society' - people need money to migrate - migration transition, beginning of a process of modernisation and industrialisation - fertility transition, as public health improves - short run, more development, more migration - it is political reform, modernisation and demographic shifts which improve economic growth in the long run

Different categories of risk according to Beck Bulkeley H (2001) Governing climate change: the politics of risk society?

- created through development - arise from lack of development - ensues from conflict from situations

Why should the UK pursue the targets set by 2050 (Building a low carbon economy, Climate Change Committee)

- cut GHG by 2050 by 80%, reduction of Kyoto GHG emissions by 80% pre 1990 levels - 80% cut in long term must apply to aviation and shipping

Projected risks for ecosystems IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (2019)

- decrease in global biomass of marine animal communities - ocean acidization - highest decline projected for topics - severe impact on biodiversity, structure and function of coastal ecosystems

Summary of key facts from below report Keeling R (2010) Ocean deoxygenation in a warming world. Annual Review of Marine Science

- decrease in oxygen = reduced ocen productivity, nutrient and carbon cycling, marine habitat - declines of 1-7% in global ocean O2 inventory - expansion of ocean minimum zones alters biogeochemical cycling, levels too low to support macrofauna

Formation of ethnicity The Age of Migration

- defined as a sense of group belonging based on ideas of common origin, history and experiences - refers to linguistic and cultural practices which retain roots - Geertz - ethnicity as primordial attachment, resulting from being born in it Situational ethnicity - invoked as a criterion for self identification where it is useful, boundaries also variable - some may reject ethnicity

Push factors of migration The Age of Migration

- demographic growth, - living standards - economic opportunities - political repression - discrimination - environment

AR5 summary for GMSL Lecture 12

- dependent on RCP - likely to rise 0.74m - can be as high as 1.3 m - the higher the RCP the higher the sea level rise - largest contribution = thermal expansion, followed by glaciers

Accommodating coastal risk, strategies, costs and benefits Responding to Rising Seas: OECD Country Approaches to Tackling Coastal Risks (Policy Highlights) (2019)

- design stds. to account for sea level rise, encourage use of property level measures for both new and existing properties, emergency management + provides flexibility, incremental change, mitigates life and assets - adds to development costs, only applicable for new builds, high degree of coordination, cost for evacuations

Transnational theory for migration The Age of Migration

- deteterritorialised nation states, significance of business communities and political and cultural communities - emphasis on human agency - 'scattering', displacement by colonisation - transmigrants identified through social, political and economic nodes - critique: doesn't fit the pattern which majority of migrants follow

Recommendations of Norouzi N et al. When pandemics impact economies and climate change: Exploring the impacts of COVID-19 on oil and electricity demand in China.

- develop electricity infrastructure to lessen vulnerability to social and economic aspects of internet industries - renewable electricity because of its decentralised nature = suitable for situation as more reliable - energy demand reduction during coronavirus - conventional electricity not flexible enough to manage - renewable electricities greater availability, more reliable than fossil fuels - oil countries should attempt to co-operate in the crisis to control the energy market; energy security level of consumers of their oil products to prevent significant harsh economic situations.

Why is plastic such an issue? Lecture 18

- developed specifically to beat the decay process - non biodegradable - massively under-recycled

Politics of environmental science McCarthy, J. (2019). Authoritarianism, populism, and the environment

- difficulty making scientific claims in a post-truth era - agnostic adaptation - tensions between social construction and political nature of science

What does Bolsonaro's response to the outcry of the international amazon fires tell us about populism and the environment?

- dismissal of climate science, as paid private/foreign actors, threatened to withdraw access, argument data was flawed and as a result of political motivations - assertion of national independence and sovereignty, rejection of international interference or donations to maintain control

How do we measure oxygen circulation in sea water? Keeling R (2010) Ocean deoxygenation in a warming world. Annual Review of Marine Science

- dissolved o2 most commonly measured property of sea water which is sensitive to biological cycling - Winkler titration method: analysis of water samples through titration wet-chemical method - O2 linked w/ carbon via photosynthesis, redistribution of O2 = biological pump, dissolved measurements provide info on ocean circulation - diff between observed O2 level and quantity known as apparent oxygen utilisation - lots of data since 1800s

Issues with deoxygenation models Lecture 15

- do they estimate the real world well? - global models do not explicitly represent the vast network of mesoscale equatorial currents supplying oxygen to tropical OMZs - simplistic representation of fine scale currents pathways in models may explain low agreement - CMIP5 models agree DO will decr in upper ocean (50 nmolm^3) but low agreement inside tropical OMZs

Limits of semi-empirical model Bittermann, K (2017) Global mean sea-level rise in a world agreed upon in Paris, Environmental Research Letters

- doesn't take into account local and regional factors that can cause relative sea level change to differ from GMSL change (incl land motion, gravitational rotational and deformational effects of redistributing mass between cryosphere and ocean - coastal planning needs to account for these factors, different for salt marshes and mangroves

The consistent finding of ocean between studies Keeling R (2010) Ocean deoxygenation in a warming world. Annual Review of Marine Science

- driver of O2 changes = physical circulation rather than changes in export production - natural decadal variability more evident - most sensitive - near base of subpolar mode waters

Nature based solutions for coastal protection examples, benefits Responding to Rising Seas: OECD Country Approaches to Tackling Coastal Risks (Policy Highlights) (2019)

- dunes, coastal wetlands, mangrove forests, reefs + ecosystems are dynamic in responding to physical changes, and can regenerate following damages

3 conditions for populism according to Albright: McCarthy, J. (2019). Authoritarianism, populism, and the environment

- economic political decline and uncertainty - failures of existing administrations to govern and address problems - collaborations of conservative leaders believing fascism would serve them better

How are marine calcifiers affected by increasing ocean acidity? Lecture 17

- eg: coral, algae, mussels, crustaceans, plankton all precipitate some form of calcium carbonate - different vulnerabilities as they don't all precipitate the same calcium carbonate - High Mg-calcite species: coralline algae - not able to reduce grazing pressure, provide structural strength or protection or habitats' more affect on some than others - warm coral reefs have dinural variation in pH conditions, subjected to varying pH conditions; daily cycle in pH more important than steady pH for coral calcification - cold water corals, calcifite dispositing species (see slides), consequences for metabolism and integrity

How have risks changed? (National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies

- emerging infectious diseases - cyber attacks - antimicrobial resistance - climate change

Things which affect population and resources Lecture 8

- energy consumption - access to energy - cultivable land

OMZ trends Lecture 15

- expanding due to global warming + hypoxic dead zones fed by nutrients, 4.5 mil/km^2 expansion in 50 years, at 200m - significant DO depletion at high latitudes - South East, Arctic, Atlantic, S Atlantic, N pacific - long term deoxygenation related to climate, stratification, solubility, circulation changes, nutrient input - future deoxygenation up to 4% under RCP8.5

Kyoto Protocol (1997)

- first treaty to set "legally binding targets" for carbon emissions for developed countries - EU cut 8% by 2008-2012, other countries followed similarly

Flood protection in the Thames River Responding to the Threat of Sea Level Rise, National Academy of Engineering (2017)

- floodgates to keep london dry, part of a larger network of defences against flooding incl 337 km of dikes - floodgates built 50cm about 20inch - major investments to protect against events that might not happen

The Malthusian Perspective - 2 Postulates Lecture 8

- food is necessary to the existence of man - passion between the sexes is necessary

Background of Puerto Rico contributing to poor response to national disasters Gibson, C. (2017). How colonialism and racism explain the inept US response to Hurricane Maria.

- former American colony - still under American rule despite being declared independent - significant political turmoil and uncertainty - able to vote in presidential primaries but no vote in electoral college

The state of freshwater ecosystems, impacts and threats Lecture 16, Living Planet Report 2014

- fresh water species declined more rapidly 76% than Marine or terrestrial (both 38%) - threats: habitat loss, fragmentation, invasive species - Case study: decline biodiversity in UK freshwaters and wetlands; salmon returned but abundance is low, Eels critically endangered

Impact of plastic in ocean + moving forward Cressey, D. (2016). Bottles, bags, ropes and toothbrushes: the struggle to track ocean plastics. Nature

- ghost fishing gear trapped and kill animals, plastics swallowed by animals - microplastics impact fertility and nutrition to some animals, some affect transport of blood through membrane, dependent on size - difficulty clearing it up without disturbing the environment either - Filtering oceans implausible - so improve waste management and recycling materials - plastic will become cemented into the earth over time

Projected changes and risks IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (2019)

- global glacier mass loss, permafrost thaw, decline in snow cover, loss of greenland and antarctic ice sheet - unprecedented increase in temperature

Causes of oxygen decline Breitburg, D, et al. (2018) Declining oxygen in the global ocean and coastal waters.

- global warming as a cause of oxygen loss in the ocean, driven by greenhouse gasses, 50% of O2 loss in upper 1000m of ocean, 85% global o2 ocean loss by reducing ventilation - eutrophication inducing hypoxic environments

Neoliberal world economy Globalisation, development and migration

- governed by IMF, World Bank, WTO + ensures open economies for competition + leads to reduction in poverty through faster economic growth - washington consensus, actually increases inequality , difficulty in fair trade for poorer countries

Impact on water quality, biodiversity and ecosystem health Lecture 16

- greatest distribution of biodiversity in LEDCs, biodiversity threat, associated w/ most economically developed + high popn density

Processes driving sea level rise Lecture 12

- greenhouse gasses and global warming causes thermal expansion - warming melts land ice leading to incr water in ocean - building and removal of dams

Potential for adaptation? Lecture 17

- hard to study in laboratory - species currently adapted to life in variable pH conditions may show tolerance to OA - rapidity + magnitude of present day OA exceeds events known from earth's geological past, potentially exceeding capacity of organisms to adapt

Concerns in an Ageing population David E. Bloom. 7 Billion and Counting SCIENCE. 29 JUL 2011

- healthcare tech becomes more expensive - economic security of elderly - illiquid economy - brain drain

Extensive risk definition Lecture 19

- high frequency, low severity losses - layer not captured by global risk modelling, nor are the losses reported internationally - risks increasing with frequency and more people in harms way.

Covid-19 lessons from climate emergency Manzanedo RD and Manning P (2020) COVID-19: Lessons for the climate change emergency.

- high momentum trends/time lags, crisis becomes obvious too late, exponential growth makes it difficult to manage - irreversible changes once threshold reached - effects have unequal effects, socially and spatially - weakening of international solidarity - less costly to prevent than cure

how can ocean co2 uptake be affected? Orr, J.C. et al. (2015) Anthropogenic ocean acidification over the twenty-first century and its impact on calcifying organisms

- higher levels of anthro CO2 = lower surface CO3 2-, change in DIC in atmospheric CO2, 60% lower in year 2100 than today - reduction in buffer capacity - calcification red when waters become undersaturated w/ aragonite and calcite - low latitude sediment traps affect aragonite distribution - incr CO2 uptake from reduction of aragonite distribution, little compensation for decr in ocean CO2 uptake

Why is sea level rise variable due to gravity? Lecture 12, also Clark et al (2016) Consequences of twenty-first century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change

- ice sheets exert a gravitational pull on the global ocean proportional to their mass - due to grav attraction, sea level rises near the ice sheet and falls far from ice sheet. - Ice sheet looses mass, sea level falls near ice sheet and rises far from the ice sheet.

Why is it difficult to measure climate effects on oceans? Lecture 14

- immeasurable processes, difficulty to access - past and future data is poor because processes are global, point measurements can't be used alone to assess environmental problems - political action on climate change requires global perspective

Other challenges with ocean oxygen tracking Keeling R (2010) Ocean deoxygenation in a warming world. Annual Review of Marine Science

- improve understanding of water transports influencing OMZs and develop physical/biological ocean general circulaiton models - understand potential feedbacks between oceans O2 supply and nutrients - Ocean deoxygenation's links w/ warming and acidification (impact on respiration, photosynthesis)

Policies to channel skilled migration Globalisation, development and migration

- improving health and working conditions in developed countries - coinvestment in programmes between labour rich and labour poor to improve education and training - reduce need to import or export skills - creating databases of skilled nationals working abroad and getting them back

How will impacts be felt unequally by the rich and poor? Lecture 13

- income + climate often connected, - small island developing states most prone to SLR - precarious existence of rural costal communities - poor have least power to affect change locally/globally

Warming contributes to: (2019). How fast are the oceans warming? Science

- incr rain fall intensity - rising sea levels - destruction of coral reefs - declining ocean oxygen levels - declines in ice sheets + glaciers and ice caps

Net effect of increase in ocean acidity Lecture 17

- increase in hydrogen - Incr in dissolved CO2 - Increase in bicarbonate ions - Decrease carbonate ions

Feminisation of migration Lecture 9

- increased female migration, accounting for almost 1/2 of int migration population - women from developed countries have higher chance to move than lesser developed - work in low wage, low status service jobs (domestic work)

Risk society's first modernity Lecture 10

- industrial modernisation - late 1800-mid 1900s - application of science and tech to incr resource base and reduce external threats - core units of society: nation and family

Conclusions of Global Water Security Issues (GWSI) Series, UNESCO Publishing, Paris (2019)

- insufficient skills at applying the IWRM approach and adaption to climate change - insufficient understanding of how policy instruments in water can affect economy - limited application of holistic approach in water policy making, multi sector involvement - should aim for greater transboundary cooperation, standardised approach to data management - Should learn how to reduce, reuse, support infrastructure and manage demand

Notes on Piore's theory of labour The Age of Migration

- int migration caused by structural demand within advanced economies for high and low skilled labour - division of labour within these markets - division based on capital training, ethnicity and gender + legal status

What is IRWM? Global Water Security Issues (GWSI) Series, UNESCO Publishing, Paris (2019)

- integrated water resource management - improve security and sustainability through better water use efficiency and conservation - adopting structural methods like improving tech + non structural measures eg water pricing - efficiency is related to allocation and re-allocation of water resources to specific, high value uses and more equitable use by all stakeholders - efficiency for water use and resilient economies

How to remedy concerns of an ageing population David E. Bloom. 7 Billion and Counting SCIENCE. 29 JUL 2011

- international migration - changing legal age of retirement

Delimiting global responsibilities Bulkeley H (2001) Governing climate change: the politics of risk society?

- international negotiations debate on who fits the bill for climate change, between north and south - transfers necessary to alleviate climate colonialism, though does little to solve the issues practically

How to achieve 2050 target (Building a low carbon economy, Climate Change Committee)

- investing in tech required (1% of 2020 GDP) - renewable energy - nuclear power - carbon capture storage - emissions reductions in buildings, transport and industry achieved through energy efficiency - potential to reduce emissions by almost 40MtCO2 for improving efficiency in homes - reduce non CO2 GHG by improving agriculture practices and improving waste

How to reduce threats to human water security? Vorosmarty, C. J. et al., (2010) Global threats to human water security and river biodiversity. Nature

- investment benefits factor, depicts supply stabilisation, improves water services and access to water (watershed disturbance, pollution, water resource dev, biotic factors) - point of service strategies, emphasise water supply stabilisation, incorp factors negatively impacting biodiversity through flow distortion and habitat loss - threat maps enable spatial planning to enhance water security - improve human water security infrastructure to protect biodiversity

Pull factors The Age of Migration

- labour demand - availability of land and economic opportunities - political + religious freedom - ethnic and family links - attractive climates

Processes affecting sea level + how are they measured Milne, G.A (2009), Identifying the causes of sea- level change, Nature Geoscience

- land ice melting (rise proportional to the volume ice loss), can use ''fingerprinting" to measure regional rise in response to ice mass change - ocean water density owing to temperature and salinity changes - measured relative to ocean floor and earth's centre of mass

Which regions of the globe are warming? Climate Change 2013 Report Summary for policymakers

- land rather than ocean - poles rather than central

Effects of oxygen deoxygenation Breitburg, D, et al. (2018) Declining oxygen in the global ocean and coastal waters.

- limits to duration of stressor, can trigger epigenetic changes, alter immune system, incr competition, affects migration and food webs - other stressors exacerbated - incr in temp, incr in o2, ocean acidifcation, elevated CO2 decr oxygen affinity of respiratory proteins - alters biogeochemistry

Reducing deoxygenation and its negative effects

- local, national and global efforts required - address deoxygenation by reducing nutrients to coastal waters and GHG - improve sanitation, limit excess fertilizers - incr temp require greater reducitons in nutrients to meet same o2 goals - involve range of stakeholders to develop ecologically and economically sound plans.

What are some trends for the North Pacific ocean oxygen levels? Keeling R (2010) Ocean deoxygenation in a warming world. Annual Review of Marine Science

- long term declines of order 7 μmol kg−1 - changes in East correlated w/ those in the West - O2 declines in NA shelf result from reduction in coastal upwelling (California), connection with O2 declines as observed as far away as the subarctic and equatorial Pacific - Incr long shore wind strength tied to global warming - South Cal coastal warming incr stratification, red ventilation of subsurface waters

Human economic development through water security UN-Water (2013) Water Security and the Global Water Agenda: a UN-Water Analytical Brief.

- long term payoff and immediate short term gains - Water food energy nexus (see review page) - 70% water use for irrigation - 10% for dom use - 20% for industry

Effects of marine heatwaves Lecture 14

- loss of biodiversity and adaptive capacity - coral bleaching, impact kelp forests, impact marine mammals eg. sea birds - economic impacts from changes in fisheries and acquaculture - Western Australia 2011 case study kelp died

Brain drain issues Globalisation, development and migration

- loss of bright young talent - circulation = south --> North, especially with medical personnel, leading to shortages - sometimes qualifications aren't recognised, lack of income - often through an 'academic gate' - waste funds invested in higher education, aggravates inequality

uncertainties with estimates Dettori et al. (2018) Increased human and economic losses from river flooding with anthropogenic warming. Nature Climate Change

- magnitude not completely defined despite performed validation analyses - no inclusion of coastal, pluvial and flash flooding processes - most additional burden affect low and middle income countries

Extreme sea level projections lecture 13

- magnitude of extreme sea level events becoming greater - Pacific islands, west coast frequency incr by 1k

Second stage of risk society Bulkeley H (2001) Governing climate change: the politics of risk society?

- makes decisions based on the old industrial society - institutions of modernity, unable to remain stable in the face of new conflicts

Consequences of sea level rise Responding to the Threat of Sea Level Rise, National Academy of Engineering (2017)

- makes extreme events more extreme - sea level rise also causes wetland loss, change, saltwater intrusion into surface water/groundwater, changes in coastal ecosystems - coastal dev incr vulnerability to sea level rise - can kill people

Why does plastic debris in oceans have a particularly damaging effect on seabirds? Savoca, M.S., et al., (2016). Marine plastic debris emits a keystone infochemical for olfactory foraging seabird

- marine microplastics produce dimethyl sulfide signature/ odor which interacts with trophic interactions and creates an olfactory trap for susceptible marine wildlife - DMS produced by break down of DMSP in plankton when grazing, triggering a foraging activity in a variety of marine organisms - incl albatrosses, petrels, shearwaters - plastic debris provides substrate for biota that prod. info-chemicals eg. DMS or DMSP bc floating plastic debris = substrate for biofuelling - HDPE, LDPE, PP all acquire DMS signature after less than month of marine exposure - mimicks krill and other pelagic crustaceans; nutrient rich patches - leads to ingestion and biomagnification

Modern risk is influenced by: Beck: A Critical Introduction to the Risk Society

- mass media and fluidity of information --> scrutiny of public institutions - technology - response of public institutions and perceptions of risk - sometimes interpreted as a moral or political issue

How to reduce impact of land motion on estimates of global sea level rise? Milne, G.A (2009), Identifying the causes of sea- level change, Nature Geoscience

- measure directly the land motion component using global positioning system and remove it to isolate the sea-surface variation

The Malthusian Perspective - 3 powerful checks Lecture 8

- moral restraint - vice -misery natural consequence of popn growth = poverty, blamed the poor for not resisting the urge to reproduce

How much as modern surface CO3 2- been reduced by and where? Orr, J.C. et al. (2015) Anthropogenic ocean acidification over the twenty-first century and its impact on calcifying organisms

- more than 10%, more in tropics than southern ocean, measuring dissolved inorganic carbon - Aragonite, different saturation horizon shoals according to region, greater conc of CO2 causing greater erosion in North Atlantic - models account for direct geochemical effect of incr atmospheric CO2 - physical climate change alone will not substantially alter high-latitude surface carbonate during 21st c

Demographic Transition Model David E. Bloom. 7 Billion and Counting SCIENCE. 29 JUL 2011

- mortality decline (medical advances, public health, diet improvements) - development precedes income, education - growth of female autonomy, reduction in fertility

Economic consequences of flooding Dettori et al. (2018) Increased human and economic losses from river flooding with anthropogenic warming. Nature Climate Change

- most costly natural disaster? - direct damages, longer and wide term economic consequences - expected intensification - measured by population and GDP change - indirect loss: lowered economic output + resources available for investment - Hurricane Katrina - 40% indirect losses

Key summaries from How fast are the oceans warming? Science (2019).

- multiple lines of evidence from 4 independent groups showing stronger observed OHC warming, pause in surface warming at least due to redistribution of heat within the climate system from earth's surface into ocean interiors - uncertainties in deep coastal ocean regions - simulations of climate change - based on assumptions about demographic and socioeconomic development - need to improve ocean observation and analysis

Features of populism McCarthy, J. (2019). Authoritarianism, populism, and the environment

- nationalism articulated in racism - demonisation of enemies - support for authoritarian leaders who rise to power via simple + cruel action contempt for and assaults on democratic norms

Protecting naval facilities and operations Responding to the Threat of Sea Level Rise, National Academy of Engineering (2017)

- navy and marine corps plan design build and maintain facilities delivering environmental utility and other services - navy lives by the sea so its coastal facilities will be affected by sea level rise - acknowledges it should work with communities surrounding them

Key points of systems theory (earth as a system)

- negative + positive feedback - system = simplification of a complex reality, with attributes, relationships and influence - thresholds = limit where 'equilibrium' cannot be maintained - earth as a geological and social process system

Economic theories of migration The Age of Migration

- neoclassical theory: people move from dense to sparsley populated areas and are motivated by push/pull factors - assumption of perfect knowledge - government restrictions considered distortions of market - central concept: humans = capital

Differing approaches to migration The Age of Migration

- neoclassicists, open borders, freedom of migration for wage maximisation - segmented labour market theory focused on demand side -strong demands for low skilled labour is easy to exploit hence govt intervention needed to reduce incentives for these kind of jobs

Limits to adaptation Responding to the Threat of Sea Level Rise, National Academy of Engineering (2017)

- no physical/technical limit as long as you have resources - issue with financial, political and social limits - as sea level rises, protecting vulnerable areas becomes starker - adaptation can be spontaneous or planned - needs to be coastal planning around the world, if you ignore other threatened areas it will come back to bite you

3 connections between environment and populism McCarthy, J. (2019). Authoritarianism, populism, and the environment

- noticeability of neoliberal capitalism in relationship to the environment, with rural areas being unable to benefit from global commodity markets and resource extraction which rural areas are against - climate change - affects agriculture, and leads to conflict of scarce resources; economic growth affecting climate change - conflation of nature and nation - hardening of borders

Key stats of IPPC Climate Change 2013 Report Summary for policymakers

- observations began since 19th c, - each of the last 3 decades are successively warmer at Earth's surface - likely increased frequency of heat waves, frequency and intensity of precipitation

Why does sea level rise ? Clark et al (2016) Consequences of twenty-first century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change

- ocean heat content (normally in upper ocean, ocean has high heat capacity) - thermal expansion, water expands as it warms, it's thermostermic, and as it becomes more saline - Mass input from ice sheets - Antarctica + Greenland - Mass input from glaciers - mass input from land and water storage (dams) - global water cycle, excess precipitation over land and ocean

Key stats from on oceans under threat Lecture 14

- oceans - largest solar energy collector on earth, storing 93% of excess energy (land + atmosphere = 3%, melting ice = 4%) - oceans take up 20-30% of CO2 emitted by humans - by 2100, expected to exceed 1,000 Zj of heat content. last 5 years warmest on record 228 Zj? - ocean heat content increasing and expected to exceed 1000zj by 2100 for RCP2.6 - range of models - Heat uptake --> long term warming of upper ocean almost everywhere, SST = sea surface temperature, by 1 deg - Southern Ocean absorbed 1.2 bn tonnes of CO2 in 2011

How does atmospheric CO2 affect the ocean? Orr, J.C. et al. (2015) Anthropogenic ocean acidification over the twenty-first century and its impact on calcifying organisms

- oceans take up heat during global warming - as CO2 is a gas, gasses try to reach equilibrium - this reduces surface ocean pH and carbonate ion conc incr, incr level of calcium carbonate - Southern Ocean surface waters become undersaturated w/ aragonite, surface ocean pH -1 unit lower than prindustrial values, end of century 0.3-0.4 units lower - making it more difficult for marine plankton and coral to live as a result of reducing calcification

Failures of economic models of migration The Age of Migration

- one sided focus as they believe economic migration can be turned off an on like a tap - Failure to see migration as a dynamic social process - difficult to prevent migration turning to a settlement for countries with strong democratic rights

decr trends in social and economic vulnerability Dettori et al. (2018) Increased human and economic losses from river flooding with anthropogenic warming. Nature Climate Change

- ongoing efforts at global scale can partially offset effects of climate and socio-economic changes on flood hazard and exposure - case study: china flood protection levels - vulnerability levels differ markedly across regions, income and period considered

Results of the ANN Norouzi N et al. When pandemics impact economies and climate change: Exploring the impacts of COVID-19 on oil and electricity demand in China.

- pandemic affected economic activity usage --> affecting energy demand - industrial productivity reduced because of the disease - oil demand second most sensitive to the severity index - damaged supply chains for int tech companies manuf. in china - China, US, UK and Europe - ind hubs more in danger because of reliance on international trade and commodities transfer - direct impact on stock and gold market - China accounts for 50% of the world's oil demand; fallen by 20% of total consumption - energy demand reduction detected by air pollution indexes - petrol = high sensitivity to demand, export, income and FDI - no impact on residential electricity consumption - ANN lesser accurate than comparing to the Regressive model

Why is Boyan Siat's Ocean Clean-up contreversial? Lecture 18

- passive system for catching sea debris - wants to deploy 100km long floating barrier in Great Pacific gabage patch - heavy disruption to marine wildlife - surface plastic pollution not the major issue here

What do models tall us about the future of marine heatwaves Lecture 14

- permanent MHW: exposed permanently to high temperatues - RCP 8.5: 90% of ocean exposed to permanent MHW conditions - extremes no longer extreme

Hazards of rising sea level on coastal communities Lecture 13

- permanent inundation - increased coastal flooding

key stats of paper Cressey, D. (2016). Bottles, bags, ropes and toothbrushes: the struggle to track ocean plastics. Nature

- plastics comprise 50-80% of litter in oceans - top sand layer 30% of Hawaii's Kamilo beach - Nairobi meeting UN Environment Programme - set the resolution to resolve plastic pollution - 300mil tonnes plastic pollution - every 11 years this doubles - estimated 15 trn - 51 trn pieces of microplastics floating in oceans - 4.8 mil -12.7 mil plastic dumped yearly - estimated majority of 300mil plastic pollution ends up in oceans - in order of abundance: microplastics, mesoplastics, macroplastics - in order of mass: macroplastics, micro, meso - 50-80% of all litter in oceans is plastic

case study: production of cash crops in Malawi Lecture 16

- poorest countries in the world, highest popn density in South African Dev Community, 100 inhabitants/km2, 83% of popn live in rural areas, moderate rainfall which is monomodal, meaning temperatures are high - 25% of Malawi's land area used for agriculture, 12.5% occupied by large estates producing irrigation subsidised crops - Water over exploited and salinised to support cash crops - 17% popn lack access to clean water, disease are wide spread

The Malthusian Perspective - 2 assumptions Lecture 8

- pop incr at geometric rate - food incr at arithmetic rate on available land unless checked

4 kinds of impact capable of quantification offering complete consequence of floods on society Dettori et al. (2018) Increased human and economic losses from river flooding with anthropogenic warming. Nature Climate Change

- popn exposed to flooding - number of fatalities - direct damages - welfare changes

Diaspora definition Globalisation, development and migration

- popns of migrant origin scattered among 2 destinations - think dual citizenships ect

What factors have impacted water security? Lecture 16, IPPC AR5 2014 report

- population growth - economic growth - energy demand - rise by 50% by 2030 for incr demand - world food requirements - must rise by 50% by 2030 to meet demand - changing efficiency on how we're using water for domestic and industrial consumption

Why do people turn to populism? McCarthy, J. (2019). Authoritarianism, populism, and the environment

- portrayal of liberal democratic institutions as weak, passive - scapegoat minorities and use violence against opponents - can be either left or right wing leaning - rooted in failures of neoliberalism - due to failures to deliver on promises of econ. growth from deindustrialisation - politicians could never deliver on the 'will of the people' - feeling of being left behind - neglect of rural areas

Formation of ethnic minorities The Age of Migration

- portrayed as a public threat, implications of conflict - defined as subordinate position in society by dominant groups on basis of phenotype, culture and origin

Predicting effects at large scales of space, time and ecological organisation Breitburg, D, et al. (2018) Declining oxygen in the global ocean and coastal waters.

- predictions of the effects of deoxygenation at spatial, temporal and ecological scales most relevant to the eco-system services provided by waters - issue is expanding it out, esp for fisheries stocks, increasing research is needed where deoxygenation will affect local economies and food security (aquaculture) - fisheries not as affected by loss of habitat as species nearer carrying capacity - use large scale and newer techniques of data collection and modelling to address spatial processes, temporal fluctuations and role of co-occurring stressors - studies must be done in LIDCs where world's aquaculture is.

Avoidance and planned retreat - measures, costs and benefits Responding to Rising Seas: OECD Country Approaches to Tackling Coastal Risks (Policy Highlights) (2019)

- prevent buildings in the area, physical relocation + flexible, effective at protection

Climate change risks are: Lecture 10

- produced by society - distributed unequally - complex causality - not confined by traditional boundaries - traditional institutions are incapable of responding to these risks

Characteristics of a risk society Lecture 10

- produced by society - risks distributed unequally - risks have complex casualty - not confined by traditional boundaries - society incr preoccupied with managing the effects of future risk

What are microplastics? Van Sebille, E., Spathi, C., and Gilbert A. (2016). The ocean plastic pollution challenge: towards solutions in the UK - Grantham Briefing Paper 19

- product of weathering from UV, ocean waves, winds ect, referred as secondary microplastics - primary microplastics: plastic beads, found in consumer products or 'industrial scrubbers' - once plastics enter marine environment, degradation happens, followed by 'biotic degradation' or 'mineralisation', which converts carbon atoms into CO2 + inorganic chemicals - moderate temps at ocean surface and saline cond = degradation slower than in the air

Issues with adopting geoengineering Working Group on Geoengineering the Climate (2009)

- profit vs climate risk motive dangerous - transboundary effects - liability and compensation - equitable participation - those who adapt early disadvantaged? - Current legislation inadequate to address responsibility for long term environmental consequences - lack of directed programmes investing in research - it is a supplementary, last resort measure

Conclusions of paper: Clark et al (2016) Consequences of twenty-first century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change

- projected sea level rise will not be uniform - well defined relationship between CO2 and GMSL - carbon footprint of 470 pg C by 2000 = committed earth to rise of 1.7m (time scales will shorten if we emit more) - high population density in coastal areas (10% of popn in coastal zone will be affected by submergence) - 122 countries affected - 25 coastal megacities - 50% of popn affected

Issues with economic theories of migration The Age of Migration

- rarely the poorest who move in reality - model doesn't explain preferences and actual movements - migrant behaviour influenced by historical experiences and family dynamics

Will sea level rise be the same everywhere? Lecture 12

- red grav attraction of shrinking ice sheets, reduced in vicinity of ice sheets but amplified away from ice sheets - vertical land motion - uneven ocean heating - ocean circulation

What are the effects of vertical density stratisfication? Lecture 14

- red. mixing, reduces nutrient fluxes (tropics) - reduces light limitation (high latitudes) - stratisficaiton can keep phytoplankton in euphotic zone for longer tho; opposite effects for different regimes

Solutions to reduce ocean plastic waste Van Sebille, E., Spathi, C., and Gilbert A. (2016). The ocean plastic pollution challenge: towards solutions in the UK - Grantham Briefing Paper 19

- reduce disposable plastic use using alt products - improve waste recycling and disposal - improve waste infrastructure - better monitoring of pollution at source - public awareness campaigns to curtail consumption - technological innovation to keep post consumer plastics in a circular economy loop, regulation incl bans on certain products - commitments to adopt end of life waste management - policy targets

What do models tell us about the future of the ocean? Keeling R (2010) Ocean deoxygenation in a warming world. Annual Review of Marine Science

- reduction in ocean o2, loss of O2 availability in warmer water - stratification -reduces nutrient and oxygen supply - North atlantic decline in o2, southern ocean o2 decr - continuing deoxygenation for 1000 years or more into the future - coarse resolution ocean models - common feature

Risk society's second modernity Lecture 10

- reflexive modernisation - mid 1900s - present - application of science and tech to manage manuf risk - core units of society: international and indv.

Why are oceans important? Lecture 14

- regulate earth system - transfer heat around the world - drive climate and weather systems - play key role in global carbon cycle - supply living and non-living resources - minerals and renewable energy - provides economic activity

How is biogeochemistry altered by changing oxygenation in oceans? Breitburg, D, et al. (2018) Declining oxygen in the global ocean and coastal waters.

- remineralisaiton process, Oxygen Minimum Zones influence nutrient budgets and productivity (hydrogen disulfide + methane produced in anoxic sediments) - copper, cadmium and zinc form sulfide precipirates in the presence of anoxic or oxygen deficient waters and sulfides, affecting distribution of trace metals - hypoxic conditions: anaerobic remineralisation of organic matter by denitrificaiton and anammox = loss of bioavailable nitrogen through formation of dinitrogen gas - N2O dependent on prevailing oxygen conditions - supply of phosphorus and iron released from sediments incr under anoxic conditions. Further stimulate bio production if they reach well lit surface waters

Homer Dixon Model Lecture 8

- resource depletion and population growth cause unequal distribution of resources - Ecological marginalisation - unequal resource access and population growth cause resource degradation and depletion

Beck's critics Bulkeley H (2001) Governing climate change: the politics of risk society?

- risk society borne out of particular circumstances of post war Germany - Risk of industrial modernity - 'assaulted the senses' - reflexive modernisation not fully explored - applicability of risk not universal given the nature of climate and environment risk

Beck's risk perspective benefits Beck: A Critical Introduction to the Risk Society

- risk unlocks + defines essential characteristics of modernity - reflection of modern condition - broader relationship between humans and environment - captures essence of modern social experience

Methods of flood protection Dettori et al. (2018) Increased human and economic losses from river flooding with anthropogenic warming. Nature Climate Change

- room for reducing hazards through structural measures for high income countries - dykes and retention systems - flood monitoring and forecasting - strategic relocation of structures and people - loss sharing mechanisms - develop cost benefit analysis for geographical and socio-economic contexts, observed vulnerability changes and future socio-economic development

cautions of Good, P. et al (2018) Recent progress in understanding climate thresholds w/ modelling

- scaling up of impacts from organisms to communities, food webs, ecosystems and economic impacts - challenging, as changes occur with other stressors, eg. warming, deoxygenation and sea level rise - coastal ecosystems most complex and at risk but difficult to stimulate bc of interactions w/ sediment processes

Artificial Neural Network - how does it work? Norouzi N et al. When pandemics impact economies and climate change: Exploring the impacts of COVID-19 on oil and electricity demand in China.

- scanning the possible effect of diff variables - data gathered, processed and analysed through a regressive and regressive hybrid model to form a conclusion

Stats on coastal risk Responding to Rising Seas: OECD Country Approaches to Tackling Coastal Risks (Policy Highlights) (2019)

- sea level will continue to rise even if we limit temp to 1.5 deg c - w/o adaptation, glood damage under higher end of sea level rise (1.3m) = 4% wpr;d GDP - adaptation reduces costs by 2-3 orders of magnitude - OECD countries - implementation to slow

Biological impacts of reductions in CO2 Orr, J.C. et al. (2015) Anthropogenic ocean acidification over the twenty-first century and its impact on calcifying organisms

- severe consequences for calcifying organisms - surface dwelling calcitic plankton may fare well in short term but beginnings of high calcite undersaturation lags behind - threaten fish habitats by threatening corals - impacts at all trophic levels

Why is covid-19 unprecedented? Lecture 11

- severity, society characterised by mobility - difficulty in tracking - risks distributed unequally - global impact on health, employment, housing, access to healthcare - oil prices collapsed to negative

How do we measure the impact of OMZs on marine organisms? Keeling R (2010) Ocean deoxygenation in a warming world. Annual Review of Marine Science

- shallowest depths at which waters become hypoxic

reflexive modernisation arises as a result of the transition from industrial to risk society. Why? Bulkeley H (2001) Governing climate change: the politics of risk society?

- shift from politics of goods to politics of bads - division between politics and sub-politics - polititicisaion of science, scientization of politics - public deliberation on the consequence of risk

Aragonite Saturation Horizon Lecture 17

- shoal towards the surface, above horizon, saturated and can form precipitation - below horizon, no saturation = no precipitation - Under SRES S2 scenatio, vol of ocean with super saturated waters to decline by 42% (from preindustrial) to 25% by 2100 - depth of horizon at different waters is different

Observed physical changes of the ocean IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (2019)

- shrinking of cryosphere w/ mass lsot from ice sheets and glaciers - red in snow cover - artic sea ice - marine heatwaves double in frequency and intensity - ocean surface acificiation GMSL rising, accelerated due to Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, incr in tropical cyclone winds and rainfall, incr extreme waves and sea level rise

Marxist perspective on population growth Lecture 8

- skeptical of the laws of nature - poverty consequence of capitalism - class struggle theory

Behavioural forces of age structure change in population David E. Bloom. 7 Billion and Counting SCIENCE. 29 JUL 2011

- society reallocation of resources from investing in children to investing in human capital, job training, tech - rise in women's participation in the workforce that naturally accompanies declines in fertility - the boost to savings that occurs because the incentive to save for long periods of retirement as ppl live longer - legalising birth control - macroeconomic policy (infrastructure, trade and investment all important)

Natural radiative forcing of climate change

- solar irradiance

Why do oceans deoxygenate when it warms up? Lecture 15

- solubility of oxygen decreases w/ temperature, the warmer surface water requires less DO to reach 100% sat than deeper cooler water - ventilation - warming of surface ocean drives reductions in the ventilation of deeper layers where biological consumption reduces O2, this stratifies water

Why is there a mismatch? between plastic entering oceans and observed? "the missing plastic problem" Cressey, D. (2016). Bottles, bags, ropes and toothbrushes: the struggle to track ocean plastics. Nature

- some in sea floor, deep ocean sediment hiding lots - may end up in shorelines, plastic sinks uncovered all the time - broken down by UV into nanoplastics - nanoplastics consumed, bioaccumulate in the food bed - gyres reflect deep sea circulation, thermohaline circulation where microplastics are

Global mean sea level scenarios Bittermann, K (2017) Global mean sea-level rise in a world agreed upon in Paris, Environmental Research Letters

- stabilising at 1.5 deg c in 2050 yeilds rise of 49 cm - future GMSL rise dependent on temperature scenarios - immediate red in rate of warming and low stabilisation temp even if overshot transiently, will result in considerable red in amount of GMSL rise that global coastlines and coastal communities will experience during 21st century

Remedying the scarcity-conflict model Betsy Hartmann (1998). Population, environment and security: a new trinity

- stop overemphasising the role of population growth in environmental degradation, narrow focus on fertility reduction should instead be women's reproductive rights - stopping gender blindness - stopping dehumanisation of refugees - militarising sustainability (eg. MEDEA)

Key weather/storm-related incidents Lecture 13

- storm surges - combination of winds and low pressure, Oct 2012 Sandy - Typhoon Haiyan 2003 - Coastal erosion in the Pacific Islands - Flooding Chesapeake bay - Hurricane Katerina 2005

Implementing responses to ocean and cryosphere change IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (2019)

- strengthening response options: integrated water management, eco system based adaptations, restoration, protection, reduction of pollution and other stressors - enabling conditions: climate resilience and sustainable development dependent on emissions reductions, intensifying cooperation and coordination among governing authorities across borders. education, climate literacy, monitoring and forecasting, negotiating trade offs

Ocean oxygen cycle Lecture 15

- surface is saturated w/ dissolved o2 from atmosphere - DO consumed in breakdown of organic material by phytoplankton in photosynthesis - consumption of bacteria, reduction in o2, cycle starts again

Global targets for climate change

- temp close to 2deg, probability of 4 deg incr at very low level - 3%/4% annual emissions reduction - Required global emissions red of 50% - 20-24 GtCO2 e in 2050

Authoritarianism and the environment McCarthy, J. (2019). Authoritarianism, populism, and the environment

- tension between rural and urban areas - exploitation of natural resources for political clout - attack on environmentalists, eliminating environmental data

3 governing factors of oxygen distribution in ocean interior Keeling R (2010) Ocean deoxygenation in a warming world. Annual Review of Marine Science

- the initial O2 that the parcel contained when it was last at the surface, - rate o2 consumption by the oxidation of organic matter (termed oxygen utilisation rate, or OUR), - time elapsed since the parcel was last at the surface, sometimes known as the ventilation age.

List key renewable energy sources

- tide, 113 wkh/d - wave, 4 wkh/d - shallow offshore wind, 32 wkh/d - biomass, fuel, biofuel, 14 wkh/d - PV farm, 50 wkh/d - solar heating, 13 wkh/d - wind, 20 wkh/d - hydro - 1.5 kwh/d

How to calculate ventilation age? Keeling R (2010) Ocean deoxygenation in a warming world. Annual Review of Marine Science

- time required for water on a given potential density surface to transit from high-latitude region where water of that density "outcrops" at surface - ventilation ages incr w/ depth in upper ocean + incr w/ distance from outcrop regions - refers to all processes supplying atmospheric gases - shallower waters = higher o2, better ventilated

Policy implications of sea level rise Clark et al (2016) Consequences of twenty-first century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change

- timescales + discount rates - may provide how much we are willing to pay but don't answer the "should" question, science can examine the implications of diff policy options - avoid severe impacts - need for policies which lead to net 0 or net -ve emissions reductions, a 4th revolution is decarbonisation of current energy systems (mechanisation, electrification, computerisation --> decarbonisation)

Predicting oxygen decline Breitburg, D, et al. (2018) Declining oxygen in the global ocean and coastal waters.

- total amount will be a few % by end of century; little agreement about the spatial distribution of future low-oxygen zones having <100 nmol O2kg-1/spatial patterns of O2 changes - uncertainty limits ability to predict reliably - inclusion of other mechanisms like atmospheric nutrient deposition and decadal climate variability may reduce uncertainty - predicting O2 levels in indv coastal water bodies requires modelling variability in these systems, measure estuary-specific and regional 3D coupled hydrodynamic and water quality models

Different ice masses + their response/contribution to sea level rise Clark et al (2016) Consequences of twenty-first century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change

- total sea level contribution by glaciers limited by total amount of water stored in them-estimated to be 0.37m not incl Antarctic ice sheet - Greenland ice sheet: stores about 7m of GMSL rise, long term: based on ice-sheet model to regional energy-moisture balance mode - Antarctic ice sheet: 58m of GMSL, potential sea level contribution within the next 10,000 years exceeds that of all other sources, occurs in the marine based portions of the ice sheet following removal of a small volume of ice at margin

Migration systems theory The Age of Migration

- two or more countries exchange migrants - linkages - state to state relations w/ mass culture connections + family - exists because of colonisation, political influence, trade, investment, cultural ties - Mexico, Korea, Vietnam x USA - view macro, micro and mesostructure

How do we resolve water security issues as a society? Lecture 16

- understand and influence the process driving environmentally damaging behaviours - curb popn growth + incr in resource consumption - managed retreat where land is unsustainable - develop food security through sustainable intensification of farming - less damaging approaches to food and energy production - circular economy, innovative solutions - reduce demand for long haul travel, consumption and water consumption

Drivers of Euroscepticism Mamonova, N. and Franquesa, J. (2019). Populism, neoliberalism and agrarian movements in Europe

- unequal distribution of power and resources - weaker countries sacrificed for the political interests of western Europe - immigration - inequality between urban and rural divide + uneven development - dissatisfaction with socialism - erosion of peasant culture - insecurity about national identity

Historical approaches/theories of migration (dependency theory) The Age of Migration

- uneven development as a result of colonialism and the war, leading to dependency on trade with multinationals and powerful economies - migration reinforced effects of military hegemony - critique - failure to address human choice and autonomy

Why does ocean warming affect the density of the ocean and why is the effect bad? Lecture 14

- warmer sea surfaces = lighter, less dense - they don't mix with deeper waters = enhances vertical stratification - freshening at higher latitudes due to more ice melt and rainfall - waters become less salty = also increases vertical stratification - deep ocean currents driven by density differences (thermohaline circulation), responsible for transporting heat from the warm tropics to the poles. 25% of global heat flux associated w/ gulf steam transport, Atlantic Meridonial overturning Circulation weaken or collapse

Impacts of water scarcity Lecture 16

- water stress exacerbates inequalities, unevenly through a global distribution of flood risk - changing climate affects ground water recharge, incr in droughts in some areas, floods in others

Water security challenge is? Lecture 16

- water-food-energy nexus - popn growth and climate change -

The case for letting Malibu burn Davis, M (1995)

- wealthy malibu property owners benefit from extraordinary insurance, land use, relief subsidies and coverage - poorer part of LA - immigrant community, minimal standards of building safety, poor regulation, very cramped living conditions --> preventable deaths - fires in LA linked to class struggle

Anthropogenic radiative forcing of climate change

- well mixed GHG - ozone - stratospheric water vapour from methane - surface albedo - contrails - aerosol

Economically motivated migration The Age of Migration

- young target earners who want to save a high wage - Migrants themselves pass through the life cycle in the country, and dependency on these workers has become a structural feature of the economy - may return home but the nature of settlement is more permanent

4 perceptions of risk Beck: A Critical Introduction to the Risk Society

1. Anthropological - Mary Douglas 2. Individual cognition of risk - Paul slovic 3. Governmentality - Role of social institutions in constructing understandings of risk - Michael Focault 4. Risk society perspective - Beck, Giddens, take into account the modern manufactured risks which span the globe

where does extra co2 come from? (in order of size)

1. Electricity + heat prod (25%) 2. Agriculture, forestry and other land use, (24%) 3. Industry (21%) 4. Transportation (14%) 5. Other energy (10%) 6. Buildings (6%)

4 factors to manage water security and incr efficiencies in water use by Asia Development Bank Global Water Security Issues (GWSI) Series, UNESCO Publishing, Paris (2019)

1. Expanding wastewater management and reuse. 2. Embedding integrated water resources management. 3. Expanding knowledge and capacity development. 4. Enhancing partnerships with the private sector.

What are the key observed contributors to sea level rise in descending order of amount contributed to GMSL? Lecture 12

1. Thermal expansion, 1.1mm/year 2. glaciers excluding the big two, 0.76 mm/year 3. greenland ice sheet 0.33/year 4. Antarctic ice sheet, 0.27 mm/year 5. glaciers in greenland, 0.1 mm/year

Key changes in the age structure David E. Bloom. 7 Billion and Counting SCIENCE. 29 JUL 2011

1. changes in the working age share (swelling of potential labour as large youth cohorts reach working age, tendency for savings to be high) 2. rising share of elderly, 10% incr from today to 2050 in this age group, concerns for rising costs of funding healthcare, dependency on working class.

4 principles to be taken into consideration when tackling coastal risks Responding to Rising Seas: OECD Country Approaches to Tackling Coastal Risks (Policy Highlights) (2019)

1. engage stakeholders early and substantively 2. plan for future and prevent lock-in to unsustainable pathways 3. align responsibilities, resources and incentives 4. explicitly consider distributional and equity implications of policies

Climate change contributing to ill health because of 5 main factors: IPCC (2014) working group II report Health Chapter

1. geographic causes - working outside, flooding 2. climate extremes promote the transmission of certain infectious diseases 3. age and gender 4. socioeconomic status 5. public health infrastructure; Potentially causes 15,000 deaths annually

Why does Co2 increase also increase the acidity of oceans Lecture 17

1. incr atmospheric CO2 conc result in net uptake of CO2 by seawater 2. when CO2 reacts with sea water, carbonic acid is formed 3. carbonic acid dissociates into H+ and bicarbonate ions 4. 99% of H+ produced are neutralised through reaction w/ carbonate ions to produce more bicarbonate ions - surface waters with pH8.1 - 90% of inorganic carbon occurs as bicarbonate ions, 90% occurs as carbonate ions, only 1% occurs as dissolved CO2 - 170 % Increase in sea water acidity

3 points about the possibilities of contemporary risk Bulkeley H (2001) Governing climate change: the politics of risk society?

1. politics of risk society are not conducted only, or primarily, through the formal political system; 2. light of risk society, the formal political system is weakened; 3. within subpolitics that conflicts of accountability will be resolved or ignored

3 parts of risk management UNISDR Global assessment report (2015)

1. prospective - avoid accumulation of new risks 2. corrective - reduce existing risks 3. compensatory - support resiliance of individuals and societies

4 tools for coastal adaptation, with examples of country adaptation Responding to Rising Seas: OECD Country Approaches to Tackling Coastal Risks (Policy Highlights) (2019)

1. provide access to information, Aus web-portal 'coast adapt' 2. ensure regulation and economic instruments are coherent - Netherlands' National Spatial Plan 3. Considering climate risks - Sonderrahnmenplan in Germany - speeds up implementation of coastal protection in Germany 4. Monitoring + evaluating effectiveness of all policy interventions - France mid-term and end term eval of national adaptation plan

3 failures of neoliberalism: Mamonova, N. and Franquesa, J. (2019). Populism, neoliberalism and agrarian movements in Europe

1. rise of right wing populism w/ economic impoverishment, social polarisation and disenfranchisement 2. representative democracies in a 'post political situation' 3. relationship between neoliberalism and right wing populism

GMSL - Global mean level sea level rise (range) Bittermann, K (2017) Global mean sea-level rise in a world agreed upon in Paris, Environmental Research Letters

1.3-1.9mm/year

UK target for GHG emissions

2.1 - 2.6 CO2 2e per capita = UK reduction of at least 80% in 2050. including aviation and shipping, and all GHG

Beck's risk perspective Beck: A Critical Introduction to the Risk Society

A new kind of capitalism, a new kind of global order, a new kind of politics and law, a new kind of society and personal life are in the making which both separately and in context are clearly distinct from earlier phases of social evolution. Consequently a paradigm shift in both the social sciences and in politics is required. (Beck, 2000c: 81)