2030 Prelim 1
preventive checks
"moral restraint"- postponement of marriage and celibacy (Malthus had little faith in thus) - vice "promiscuous intercourse, unnatural passions, violation of the marriage bed, and improper acts to conceal the consequences of irregular connections"
CBR
# births in calendar year / mid-year population *k
how to calc Age-specfiic death rate
# deaths in specific age group/ # people in that age group x 1000
the YDR
#0-19/#20-64 x 100 (number of youth supported by 100 workers; but these youth will presumably become future workers and support the elderly)
the old-age dependency ratio
#65+/ # 20-64 x 100 (number of elderly will have to be supported by 100 workers; does not account for other obligations like children)
CDR
#deaths in calendar year/ mid-year population *k
what about growth rates over longer periods of time?
(population2-population1)/Population1 *10 / # of years
How long does it take a population to double?
- Malthus argued that the population has a tendency to double every X number of years - one couple might have 2 children --> they have 2 (4)--> they have 2 (8), etc. BUT people can have more than two kids. - in actuality, doubling time = 70/ growth rate
the last 50 years, and Malthusian thought
- concerns with population growth remain common - what our options, as the world grows to 8 billion and counting - can the earth sustain an increase to 9,10, or 11 billion?
if rates are crude, why use them?
- counts may matter to determine location of new health facility, to allocate funding, for dramatic headlines - crude rates are general indicators of health status, and are cheap and simple to calculate; the CDR requires only two pieces of info; developing countries may have less detailed data -nonetheless, the CDR does not take into account differences by age and sex in the likelihood of death
mortality differentials or health disparities: age variation
- death is not randomly distributed (very young far more vulnerable to death and so are the vary old) -DEATH VARIES WITH AGE --> J-SHAPED CURVE
why is the US MMR so much higher
- 1/3 American mothers deliver c-section: increased more than 500% since 1970s; while c-sections can often be lifesaving, survey involves serious risks; black mothers more likely to have c-sections than white mothers - in 1940s, US and UK had similar rates of MMR but Britain cut theirs to 8 vs the US at 14 - CDC estimates that 60% of current maternal deaths in the US are preventable. but race disparities also result in higher rates in US
emerging era of public health
- 1899: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine established, as was Liverpool school of tropical medicine - 1913: Harvard School of Public Health: early curriculum included courses in sanitary engineering as well as preventative medicine -Tulane school of Public Health and Tropical Medicine also claims to be 1st school of Public health in 1912 - 1916, Johns Hopkins School of Hygiene and Public Health in Baltimore was opened
The lasting legacy of malthus
- Americans hold radically different views of how poverty should be treated; do we "blame the victim?"; recent policies advocate personal responsibility - recently, there have been debates over food assistance, unemployment benefits, Medicaid receipt, rental aid - who are the deserving poor, who are less deserving - should workers have enough savings to cover a month out of work?
CRD and AADR over time
- CDR declines slightly over time - the AADR has declined steeply - mortality rates were higher in 1960 than 2017 - even tho the pop of 1960 was younger than that of 2017, AADR are lower
Outlines of a critique of political economy (1844) by Fredrich Engels
- E and M thought it wrong of Malthus to blame the poor - however, the Malthusian theory was a necessary transitional stage. "from this theory we can derive economic arguments and come to determine the reliance of man on competitive conditions" - there is much untilled land.
Malthus: who was he
- English clergyman, and later a college professor -author of essay on the principle of population as it affects the future improvement of society - published anonymously in 1798 and later republished and updated - first to draw widespread attention to the two components of natural increase: births and deaths - his work among the most influential works relating to population growth and its social consequences - Malthusian view continue to influence modern perspectives on poverty and its causes
the changing valuation of childhood
- In modern societies, the wealth flow is reversed: parents provide for children, children legally prohibited from working till teen years, children are legally required to attend school, the need for a degree is increasingly important to obtain a good job, becomes less economically rational to have many children. parents have fewer children and invest more in each
Was Malthus right? not so far
- Malthus focused on moral restraints and eschewed contraception - Neo-malthusians accept many of his conclusions re population growth; the key difference is that they favor contraception - irony? the controversy over Malthu's ideas helped spread knowledge of birth control in England and america - Malthus underestimated the carrying capacity of the land and increasing productivity - populations have increased, but so has food capacity
state level age dependency ratios
- South Dakota and Idaho are growing through fertility and in-migration -Florida has a high DR bc it attracts seniors - what is up with DC? lots of gov workers
Countries and their first census
- Sweden 1749 - Denmark 1784 - The US 1790 - England 1801 - Canada 1851
The Demographic Transition
- a model that describes patterns of population change over time - it is a framework that illustrates population growth in terms of discrepancies and changes in two crude vital rates: mortality and fertility
when is a population old / young
- a population with a large share of people under age 15 (ex: 30%( is young - a population with a large share aged 65 and up (ex exceeding 10%) is old - if the proportion of young people increases relative to the total, the population "grows younger" - an aging population is one in which the proportion of older people is increasing relative to the total
the age transition
- a shift from a very young population, where there are slightly more males than females, to an older population, where there are more females than males - younger populations generally contain more males than older populations (sex-ratio at birth, social factors: men engage in riskier behaviors)
new forms of data
- administrative records (taxes, school information) - commercial transactions (electronic payment info) - social media and internet data - geo-spatial data --> location trackers o smart phones - image and audio data --> facial recognition each of these data sources has benefits and drawbacks
the third demographic transition
- again for countries in stage 4 or 5 of DT - countries that are aging, with large older populations - but they also have large, younger racial and ethnic immigrant populations - they are characterized by high levels of immigration - but they can also be riven by tensions between young and old from different backgrounds, fear over cultural differences, religious differences, racial differences
why is IMR so high in the US
- age at birth: those born to mother <20 and >40 have higher mort - first births: have higher chance of deaths than higher parity births -marital status: those born to unmarried mothers have higher rates of infant mortality than those born to married moms -premature births: those born early have a higher risk of dying (but US also has higher rates of post-neonatal mortality)
example of using a lexis diagram for lung cancer
- age effect: lung cancer most likely to kill people at older ages - period effect: death rates from lung cancer will depend partly on when a person was diagnosed, because new treatments for the diseases means one is more likely to survive a diagnosis in 2019 than in 1919 - cohort effects:: smoking rates have declined since the 1990s, when the heads of big tobacco companies testified in front of congress about smoking
the aging population in the us
- aging more slowly than European and Asian peer countries because of higher fertility and immigration; we are lagging in life expectancy
Racial differences in IMR, pre- and post 1964 Civil Rights Act: National
- before 1964: increase in hospital birhts - July 1964: congress passes title VI Civil Rights Act prohibiting discrimination and segregation in any institution receiving federal funds - 1965: medicare act: withheld certification and funding from all hospitals that could not provide evidence of integrated facilities -IMR has declined for all races over time; black still higher tho
assumptions underlying Caldwell's restatement
- behavior is economically rational - movement from a society with economically unrestricted fertility to a society of economically restricted fertility is the produce of social, rather than economic, chane
new research - MMR
- beter identifying maternal deaths --> researchers point to the need to pay closer attention to cause of death; better identification revealed prevention focus (pre-eclampsia (dangerously high BP), eclampsia (seizures that develop after pre-eclampsia); 3. postpartum cardiomyopathy (deterioration of heart function) - this work also highlights the interactional strategies needed (implicit biases shape how doctors interact with patients, access to health care also shapes treatment patients receive, greater focus doctor-patient interactions warranted)
five main determinants of population health
- biology and genetics - individual behavior (unprotected sex, drug use) - social environment (eg discrimination, income, education level, marital status) - physical environment (eg place of residence, crowding conditions, built environment, infrastructure [water, were systems]) -health services (access to health care, insurance)
why does global population increase?
- births exceed deaths - more new lives enter the system than exit it - we do not yet have a stationary population--> a stationary population is a special example of a stable population with zero growth rate, B=D
growing capacity, survival challenges
- by 5000 BC major civilizations were established in China and Greece, the world was adding ~100,000 people each year - upheavals the collapse of the Roman and Han empires- reduced population increase - the plague in the 14th century reduced European populations
why so slow?
- carrying capacity was low - hunter-gatherers must find enough food and water to sustain them year-round - rapid population growth leads to food shortages - carrying capacity= the largest population an area can support with its resources
example 3: cause-specific death rates and ratios
- cause-specific death rate: Dc/P * 100,000 - cause-specific death ratio: percent of all deaths due to a particular cause or group of causes Dc/D *100 where Dc reps deaths to a specific cause or group of causes; D reps all deaths; the constant is larger- 100,000 deaths (not 1000)
Neo-natal mortality rate
- deaths under 1 month - generally attributed to Endogenous factors (perinatal and biological conditions, or genetic make-up); low birth weight, poorly developed lungs or other organs; congenital diseases (heart defects, neural tube defects)
one key to population growth
- declining infant mortality - the development of oral rehydration therapy (ORT)- a solution of salts and sugars taken orally that treats diarrhea- reduced one major cause of death in young children; in developed countries, levels of infant mortality are quite low; the US is something of an outlier, as particular groups- African Americans, American Indians- have higher rates of infant mortality than white
what other factors contribute to MMR rise
- delayed fertility
what differentiates demographic data from run of the mill data
- demographers are concerned with issues of representation - who is captured in the data? is your sample selective/representative/of whom? - demographers are concerned with data quality - your research is only as good as your data
why were the poor laws criticized
- distorting the free market; the 1832 report, royal commission into the operation of the poor laws, concluded that the existing poor laws undermined the property of the country - how? by interfering with the natural laws of supply and demand; poor relief allowed employers to force down wages - the poor laws were overhauled in 1834 to incorporate work houses, which were made harsh to discouraging people from seeking help
mixed race individuals as a reflection of changes in public policy
- estimates of mixed-race population seems unrealistically low given our nation's history of slavery. Social norms nd bureaucratic rules determined who could marry whose, or how children were classified. - anti-miscegenation Laws were US laws that deemed marriage between whites and racial minorities a criminal offense - what changed? Loving v. Virginia, anti-miscegenation laws declared unconstitutional
what does income suggest about infant mortality
- evidence suggests that even money does not mitigate infant mortality among affluent black mothers
Resurgence of Infectious and Parasitic Disease (IPD)
- evolution of microbes; over-use of antibiotics; urbanization; mobility; expansion into previously unpopulated areas; climactic change
suggestions from medical and public health professionals
- expand medicaid -> beyond a few months post-birth; expanded medicaid is assoc with a drop in IMR; address disparities between rural and urban access to care - medicaid access pre and post birth would help -expand funding devoted to public health
still the time to get another billion is increasing. why?
- fertility rates are declining; the rate of population growth is slowing
Demographic Trends (Re)shaping the US
- fertility- big declines over the past decade (esp among teens and women in their 20s) - mortality- declining life expectancy the last few years, and now COVID - immigration- positive but declining, including undocumented immigrants. Until recently 1 million new legal immigrants added to US population each year - growing racial and ethnic diversity - the millennials are project to become the largest generation - according to population projections from the US Census Bureau, millennials (born 1981-1996) make up the largest population group in the US in 2023, followed by baby boomers (1946-1964) - American's home lives are changing - retreat from marriage and the rise of cohabitation; more acceptance of childlessness; women in the US labor force-work-family issues - the American labor force relies on immigration for growth as Boomers retire. New social contract? - the unauthorized immigrant population in the US fell in 2015, and continued to decline - women made up half of the US labor force, before the Pandemic hit. How will pandemic reshape labor force participation rates?
new approaches to maternal health
- focus on improving pregnancy experience of prospective moms (doulas, stress reducing behaviors, emotional/economic support) - they are less able to address institutional forms of discrimination: job discrimination and unemployment, differential access to health care and insurance coverage (medicaid); outcomes assoc with differential policing, housing segregation, employment discrimination
Loving V. Virginia (1967)
- followed Perez v. Sharp (1948) which declared anti-miscegenation laws in California unconstitutional - all state anti-miscegenation laws were declared unconstitutional
what is Second Demographic Transition
- for countries in stage 4 of ST, a new calculus has emerged - ideational change --> a rise of individualism and the pursuit of self-fulfillment, coincide with the possibility of controlling fertility through modern contraception - Behavioral manifestations of the 2nd DT - delayed marriage; premarital cohabitation; delayed, childbearing, non-marital childbearing; remaining childless; an increase in females (and esp. maternal employment); Below replacement Fertility
health and mortality changes over time
- for most of history, life expectancy fluctuated between 20 and 30 years - before 18th C ~2 of 3 babies survived to first birthday and only about 1 in 2 were still alive at age 5 (now 99%) - at the other end of age continuum, around 10% of people made it to age 65 in a premodern society [now 90%]
post neo-natal mortality rate
- from 4-52 weeks - generally attributed to exogenous factors (external situations) that are often preventable: - environmental risks; infectious diseases; accidents and injuries
AADR for selected causes of death in the US
- heart disease: started high and declining - cancer relatively stable but increasing stroke: stable then declined
Understanding life stages (age strata)
- historically there were 3 stages: infancy, adulthood, old age - modern societies have more: infancy; childhood; adolescence; young adulthood; middle age; young-old; oldest old - new life stages: emerging adulthood (ages 19-29? 19-34?); oldest old (85+)
life tables
- how long can you be expected to live? - you can derive your life expectancy from a life table; a life table basically takes a hypothetical (synthetic) population and calculates age specific mortality rates experienced by a population at a given time - you can then determine what life expectancy would be if someone born in 2010 had the same risks of dying throughout their lives as those indicated by the age-specific death rates in 2010
how did components combine in the past?
- human beings have been around for ~200,000 years - for most of that time, humans were hunter-gatherers, living a primitive existence, marked by high fertility and high mortality --> very slow population growth - on the eve of the agricultural revolution 10,000 years ago, the world's population was estimated at 4 million
how do we know country level variation (deaths)
- in UK, Births and Deaths Registration Act (1836) - Sweden- registration of deaths began in 1749 and country mandated use of death certificates in 1860 -many developing countries are based on estimates or surveys
the eugenics movement
- in full force in early 1900s; meant to be an obsession with racial mixtures. a category for Mulatto was kept until 1920. - emphasis on determining nativity of foreigners: via questions on birthplace, parental birthplace, mother tongue, parent's mother tongue.
confusing race and ethnicity, or the morphing of Hispanic into a race category
- in the 2000 census, nearly half of all Hispanics did not identify with a single standard race - a total of 42.6% of Hispanics checked "other" on the race quesiton - of the 15.4 million who identified themselves as "other", 97% were Hispanic - in the 2010 census, 94% of hispanic respondents reported one race, with the majority (53%) identifying as white 0 still, when it comes to identity, many treat Hispanic as a race
The Sex Ratio- is the deck stacked at birth?
- in the US there are about 1-5 boys for every 100 girls however males have higher mortality rates at every age.
Vital Registration
- in the US, Death Certificates provide information on who, when, where, and why - info is transmitted to state's health offices then to CDC, the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) provides the most complete data on births and deaths in the US, deaths are recorded in the national death index
changes in racial measurement 1980s
- in the years following WWII, racial categories remained static; low levels of immigration from abroad; booming economy - but the Civil Rights movement created new justifications for categorizing race; by measuring race, we could determine whether groups were underrepresented in neighborhoods, occupations
what role do minors play in the family economy?
- in traditional societies, adults (esp. the patriarchal head) benefit from many children - the household head controls the resources other family members can produce - young children work in the household and on the farm: carrying fuel, fetching water, feeding animals - parents can invest in training or educating children so as to increase their ability to make returns. But schooling = $$ - in traditional societies, wealth flows from children to parents
visualization of the epidemiological transition
- infectious diseases begin with high mortality rates and decline - non communicable diseases start with low then increase and then level out
why do we care about the age composition of a population
- information on the age distribution of a population is important for planning purposes: housing, schools, military, social support (SS and Medicare) - marketing
weaknesses of IMR
- it is dependent upon vital statistics, completeness of death reporting, birth reporting - not all births may be reported (what is a live birth) -it is really a ratio, not a rate (deaths to births)
disadvantages of age-specific death rates
- it is unwieldy- you need to look at lots of numbers; it is difficult to summarize patterns; it is not meaningful if aggregated into one figure
liberal policies v conservative policies
- liberal: expanded state power for economic regulation and redistribution, protected the rights of marginalized groups, or restricted state power to punish deviant behavior - conservative policies: narrowed state power for economic regulation and redistribution, limited rights of marginalized groups, expanded state power to punish deviant behavior
factors contributing to IMR and racial differences
- low birthweight babies ( < 5 pounds 8 ounces) -preterm births: the IMR for premature babies was 44 per 1000 live births as compared to 3.2 per 1000 live births for normal gestation babies - lack of prenatal care: infants born to women who waited until the 7th month or later to start prenatal care or who received no care were twice as likely to die as infants of women who started care in the first trimester - low levels of education (< HS degree); use of tobacco; SIDS
How is Malthus linked to policy
- malthus's criticism of the working class's tendency to reproduce rapidly, and his belief that this led to their poverty, brought widespread criticism of his theory - Malthus thought that charity would only increase the numbers of the poor; this would increase the burden on the public purse, to support a growing army of dependent poor. the result? national bankruptcy
what HAS changed in Census Measurement
- measuring (again) the Mixed Race population as of the 2000 census, respondents were able to select more than one race group - about 5 million non-hispanics listed more than one race in 2000 - this is only a fraction of the true level of Americans with mixed-race ancestry
ramifications of too many men
- men outnumber women by 70 million in China and India - imbalance distrots labor markets, drives up savings rates in China, and drives down consumption, artificially inflates certain property values, and parallels increases in violent crime, trafficking or prostitution in a growing number of locations
how does education correlate to infant mortality?
- more educated mothers, fewer infant deaths - does not eliminate racial gap tho: even college educated Black women re more likely to experience higher rates of infant mortality than less educated white women
What happens during the demographic transition?
- mortality declines due to increasing living standards (nutrition and sanitation) and medical advances - large families are just not compatible with an industrial economy - decline of fertility will follow as the night they day - THEREFORE, in order to have fertility decline, one must have economic development
why the worry about population aging
- since the 1930s in the US, we have had a pact with the elderly: they will be taken care of their old age - how do we do that? social security - individuals are taxed during their working years and when they retire they are supported; but SS program running out of money
results from montez
- mortality rates for women 25-64 in states with most liberal policies on criminal justice, environment, gun safety, health and welfare, labor taxes, and tobacco taxes are significantly lower than if the same state had the most conservative policies, all else equal - more liberal scores on marijuana domain are assoc with higher mortality rates -results similar for men -suicide rates among 25-64 were most closely assoc with marijuana and gun safety domains, varied for men and women, and there were some time lags
Challenges to the Dependency Ratio Measure
- not adequately capturing who is at work - what is "productive" work?: women who remain at home to provide care are not considered productive workers. They are not adding to the GNI but their work is valuable if you think about costs of child or elder care
impact of policy on sex ratio imbalance
- one child policy in china resulted in an increase in female infanticide (1979-2015) - in india, the availability of fetal ultrasounds to determine fetal sex skewed the sex ration in the 1970s-1980s
what is the dependency ratio telling us?
- overall, the ratio tells us how many dependents 100 working-age people need to support - as the Baby Boomers reached retirement, this ratio increased- meaning each 100 workers had more and more dependents to support - the Baby boom reached age 6 5 in 2011. The dependency ratio in the US went from 49 in 2010 to 53.7 in 2019
new reasons for measuring race in census (and admin) data
- passage of Civil Rights laws in 1960s provided a new imperative for measuring race: federal laws declared discrimination illegal; racial disparities could be interpreted as evidence of discriminatory behavior (in certain circumstances) - the voting rights act (1965) required electoral boundaries to reflect the presence of racial groups/ language minorities -legislation in 1975 expanded groups from Blacks to persons who are American Indian, Asian America, Alaska Native, or of Spanish Heritage
why are recent population increases so rapid and large?
- population momentum: there is built in momentum to increase, even with slowing growth rates - it took ~118 yrs to get from 1 billion to 2 billion - it took only 37 years to go from 2 to 3 billion - and only 15 years to get from 3 to 4 billion, and even less to get to 5 billion - the growth rate is lower- but the base is larger
what factors shape these growth rates
- predictions are... uncertain - the UN estimates assume that positive developments (ie increases in girls' education) persist - but world events challenge such assumptions: - bring COVID, fewer girls were in school - Afghanistan: the Taliban restricted girls' education. As of August 2021, Afghani girls are not allowed to attend High school
understanding persistent racial disparities in mortality: social disparities approach
- public health experts, social scientists, Medical professionals increasingly explore how social determinants of health create racial disparities in health outcomes - what factors are social rather than biological determinants? - where we are born, where we live, where we work, are we part of a religious community, where do we go to school, types of households we live in
public health and private coverage
- public health improvements can be considered public goods paid for societally rather than individually - in the US, unlike many other societies, medical care is viewed as an individual responsibility (not a public one) - this begs the question: should health care be a right- that's a political question
so in the end, what does race signify
- racial/ethnic lines are socially constructed boundaries - they can be shifted (eg racial boundary changes- Jews, Irish, etc); crossed (eg groups cross the boundary from upward mobility); blurred (intermarriage) - in American society, race matters --> because of what it signifies regarding power and privilege (or lackthereof)
Demographic Trends Reshaping the World
- redistribution of the world's population through migration - "south" to "north" migration --> on-going today in the move from Central American to Mexico to US - urbanization --> in China, South and Southeast Asia, Northern and Sub-Saharan Africa Refugee migrations --> due to political upheavals and war (Syrian refugees in 2015), famine & desertification - variation In MORTALITY (COVID) and fertility
mortality
- refers to death- timing, causes, and differentials. Demographers study mortality, but also pop health; as health levels improve (or morbidity declines) so does life expectancy
morbidity
- refers to prevalence of disease or unhealthy conditions in a population; studied by epidemiologists
longevity
- refers to the ability to remain alive from one year to the next (or ability to resist death) - longevity is usually measured by life expectancy- avg expected age at death - has both biological and social components (influenced by genetics and social like drinking, smoking, exercising) - high mortality populations are those with high morbidity (not one to one tho because we may live longer now even though we are not being very healthy (obesity, diabetes) bc of modern meds)
what cumulative factors contribute to mother's poor health outcomes
- research over the past 2 decades increasingly focuses on concept called Allostatic load - allostatic load is the cumulative physiological effects of stress over the life course - cumulation of social, structure, environmental stressors weight heavily on minority women; these stressors persist even among those who should fare better due to educational attianment
what factors shaped where racial minorities lived and worked
- residential segregation --> more crowded housing, located further from work sites, multi-generational households - employment disparities --> more likely to be front-line or "essential" workers, and therefore to go into work rather than working remotely - poverty --> more likely to experience unemployment, be in need of assistance, in poorer health - less access to health care - less savings to weather the storms
Marital Status contributes to Disparities- why?
- selection: less healthy people may be less attractive marriage partners, leaving only the healthier to wed; wealthier, better educated people are more attractive in the partner market, more likely to wed - the marital experience? marriage= protective: marriage provides spouses with someone to monitor health, remind one to go to the doctor, access to health care (via spouses's job); healthier and wealthier; divorce can be dangerous
reasons for obtaining demographic data
- taxes - military purposes - planning --> for labor needs, educational facilities, businesses, health facilities, etc - governments throughout the centuries have sought to obtain estimates of various populations, for various reasons. There are mentions of censuses being conducted in the Bible; Rome counted its citizen for tax and military persons; the prophet of Mohammed conducted a written census of the muslim population in the city of Medina (Saudi Arabia)
who was to be counted in original censuses?
- the 14th amendment says: representatives shall be apportioned among the several states according to their respective numbers, counting the whole number of persons in each state. There is no reference to citizenship, legal status, age, or sex. Everyone was to be counted
how is age structure linked with crude rates
- the CDR can be particularly affected by age structure - Sweden's CDR is 2x that of Panama, but life expectancy is greater- it is bc there is a larger proportion of Sweden's population over 65
a set of transitions
- the demo transition is a group of interrelated transitions - the age transition (explored next week) - the fertility transition (including family and household transitions) - the migration transition (including urbanization)
the health and mortality transition
- the driver of increased population growth over the past two centuries -> declining mortality - as health improves, so does life expectancy
Transformations in Health Eras
- the environment: before 1935: a focus on vaccinations, antiseptic surgery, city health debts (clean water), pasteurization reduced mortality - the age of medicine: 1935- 1950- the spread of sulfa drugs, penicillin, anti-TB drugs reduced mortality (antibiotics emerged WWII); efforts to keep soldiers alive led to knowledge and technology transferred around the world - the age of lifestyle: now- diet, exercise, smoking are keys to expanding longevity; social and individual factors shape one's health
implications of changing age structure for public policy
- the feminization of poverty: where will older women, often widows live? how much will their health care cost? how will they support themselves? - health and health expenditures: aging means worse health, growing elderly population diverts more resources to health care; chronic conditions- high BP, cholesterol, diabetes on the rise; many have several chronic conditions)
why is income not protective?
- the findings suggest it is not race- it is racism - the differences begin well before coneption- the stress of experiencing racism; constant challenging
Links Between Economic Change and Public Policies
- the late 1700s and early 1800s were also times of enormous change in Agricultural Systems - technology reduced the need for farm labor; - The Enclosure Movement meant land ceased being available for communal use - the process of enclosure created a landless working class, moving to urban areas in search of work
ex 2: age-specific death rates
- the likelihood of dying differs across the life course: the j-shape pic of mortality over age -mortality patterns also differ for men and women; they are exposed to different biological and social factors resulting in mortality; women are exposed to risk of maternal mortality, a biological cause; men are not - males have higher likelihood of dying in infancy (biological) - men are also more likely to die in young adulthood (accidents, homicide), which are social causes
the age transition is the "master transition"
- the overall demographic transition is less about population growth, per se, than it is about the growth of population in different age groups over time and in different place
what do demographers study?
- the size, distribution, composition of the population; - changes in size, composition, and distribution; and - components of change including mortality/ fertility/ migration - the causes and consequences of population
conundrum (health in us)
- the us spends a larger share of its GDP on health care than any other peer nation - as a share of the nation's GDP, health spending accounted for 19.7% in 2020 - our medical system excels at high end care for those who Cana afford it - but it is doing less well for the entire population and that is reflected in our outcomes for life expectancy
postponing death by preventing and curing disease
- there are two ways to postpone death to the oldest possible ages: 1. prevent diseases from occurring or from spreading (vaccinations, clean water, sanitation, and good nutrition); in recent years, a resurgence of measles has shown the need for renewed attention to vaccinations; recent attention to lead poisoning demonstrates the crucial importance of clean water; future attention to air quality? particulate matter... COVID transmittion 2. cure people of disease when they are sick (diagnostic tech, drugs, skilled physicians)
progress in reducing infant and maternal mortality
- there have been dramatic declines since the 1900s in infant and maternal mortality; a focus on health conditions; a move to births in hospitals; public policies eliminating segregated hospitals
two types of fertility regimes
- there is no economic gain to individuals from restricting fertility - there is often/eventually economic gain from restricting fertility
opioid deaths in the US
- there is place effect: rural areas have higher rates of overdose deaths than metro areas - these are also areas that have been "left behind": high rates of poverty, unemployment, and family instability
what is the CONTEXT under which Malthus developed his ideas
- there were various upheaval in Europe in the mid-1700s: - political upheavals: the French Revolution (1789) sent ripples of fear throughout European countries with monarchies - The American Revolutionary War (1776), War of 1812 (UK-US) - Economic upheavals: food shortage, rising food prices; unemployment and overpopulation fomented unrest; there was a large wealth gap between rich and poor
strategies aging countries can use to increase the working population
- they can extend the age of retirement - they can increase the share of women in the paid labor force - they can admit more immigrants - in the US the discussion largely revolves around the first one but other countries are doing better at the second
why might educational attainment shape mortality?
- those with higher levels of education have lower death rates than the least educated; higher education is correlated with higher SES as well as insurance coverage; high SES jobs are also less often physically demanding - this pattern persists across countries with national health coverage (UK, Sweden) - the higher your social status, the longer your life expectancy
health and mortality inequalities: educational differences
- those with higher levels of education have lower death rates than the least education; higher education is correlated with higher SES, as well as insurance coverage; high SES jobs are also less often physically demanding - this pattern persists across countries with national health coverage (like UK or Sweden)- higher social status, longer your life expectancy
Industrialization and Urbanization: Health and Mortality Inequalities
- urban and rural differentials: historically, cities were more dangerous places to live, relative to countryside --> crowding, faster spread of infectious diseases - in the 1840s, cities of London, Liverpool have been described as "death traps" - more recently urban populations benefit more in terms of health than rural - medical advances, improvements in environmental conditions, give urban residents a health advantage - rural locations have fewer health facilities: shortage of med professionals lower rates of health insurance coverage
state level policies can matter to shape outcomes
- we can reduce mortality to cardiovascular disease by enacting stricter tobacco taxes; we can reduce alcohol-induced mortality by enacting more conservative marijuana taxes
understanding macro level impacts on Mortality
- what can we say about state level variation in policies that might shape mortality: - montez and colleagues suggest that states that invest in discouraging risky health behaviors (think taxing tobacco or regulating gun ownership) may have better health outcomes - they sit research finding that changes in state policy contexts have suppressed gains in life expectancy (esp after 2010) - they sought ask: does the association between state policies and life expectancy extend to working-age mortality
understanding population momentum
- when a country's TFR reaches roughly 2 children per woman, population growth ultimately stops but growth does not stop instantly because of population momentum
health and mortality inequalities: race and ethnicity
- white Americans have longer life expectancies than Black Americans; IMR lower for W v B infants; deaths to accidents, heart disease higher for Black Americans; the social determinants of death elevate these risks- stress and discrimination, poorer housing, health care access and treatment - ethnic inequalities are less clear: the "hispanic" paradox- despite lower SES among hispanics, AADR are lower for non-hispanic whites - adjusting to the (less healthy) American lifestyle moderates this benefit
the feminization of old age
- women live longer than men in almost every human society - in 1950, there were 83 males per 100 females ages 75+. particularly a problem in western societies, where sex ratios at birth are not as imbalanced
advantages of age-specific death rates
- you can compare two or more populations of the same age (controls for age differences btwn populations) -shows timing of events (eg, infancy, older age)
Debates about how to take care of the poor?
-Charles dickens made liberal use of Malthus, not just Oliver twist's send up of the poor laws, but also with a Christmas carol
Example 4: Infant-Mortality Rates
-IMR = # deaths under age 1/ live births in a year x 1000 - this is not actually a proper rate, but a ratio; the denim is not the entire pop at risk of dying in a year; some of the deaths under age.1 may be from births tax occurred during the previous year; some of the births which occurred during the year may die in the next year before their first birthday
Charles Dickens and portrayals of poverty
-dreadful living conditions and abject poverty within affluent societies are often referred to as "Dickensian" - dickens 1837 novel, Oliver Twist, portrayed the life of an orphan placed in a workhouse for children - the adults in charge of the poor house viewed their charges as burdens on society; to provide food for them was to raise another generation of poor
sociologists have long sought to understand how social factors underlie differential death rates
-emile Durkheim, a French sociologist, explored the scientific study of society, with a goal of discovering structural social facts - he sought to study phenomena attributed to society at large 0 this was a break from psychological approaches, which focused on the study of specific actions of individuals -durkheim argued that society's Norms, beliefs, and values formed the moral basis of the society, influencing social integration -argued that stronger social control among catholics resulted in lower levels of suicide than among more individualistic protestants
Basic shapes of population pyramids
-expansive (broad base meaning many children, high fertility, and rapid population growth), and relatively few elderly -constrictive (a barrel shape, showing lower numbers of younger people and older people, as fertility slowly declines) - stationary (unchanging patterns of fertility and mortality. people exit the life table as often as they enter it)
what are social determinants
-health differs across important dimensions of stratification: educational attainment, race and ethnicity, gender, marital status
what factors improved health and reduced mortality in the 19th century
-improved nutrition (first in W. Europe) -clean water -sewerage in cities -small pox vaccinations -validation of germ theory -late 19th cent was the era when schools of Public Health began to spread
what about older ages?
-in the past, parents tried their children now children generally bury their parents; in developed countries, the risk of death has been steadily decreasing even at the very oldest ages; death is getting compressed into a narrow range of ages rather than distributed across life course - the result? RECTANGULARIZATION of deaths into a narrow range of older ages --> result: growth in the oldest old population
what role should the government play in alleviating poverty?
-liberals emphasize external forces; conservative focus on personal agency
Strengths of IMR
-often used as a measure of development; in highly developed countries, IMRs normally fall under 10; northern and Western European countries have rates below 4; the US and Canada between 4 and 7; poorer countries range from mid-20s and above
what were the predictors of infant mortality
-poverty -minority status -low levels of education -young maternal age at birth
Understanding Demographic Metabolism
-societies change through generational replacement; the baby boomers reshaped American society; the boomers described as the pig in the python- they grew the need for schools, jobs, and now Soc Sec.
what are some short comings of the dependency ratio
-the measures assume that the youth (<15) are dependent. but youth are expected to attend school for ever longer periods. youth unemployment rates are very high in US and Europe - the measure assumes that the adults 65+ are dependent but in some countries the retirement age is younger or higher
Were Engels and Marx right?
-there is currently discussion about the strengths and weaknesses of socialism -there are weaknesses to Engel's view- land is not all arable, nor transferable - the political system matters. do we grow food to feed the world? or food (ie meat) to feed the rich - current social democratic countries - Denmark, Sweden- combine capitalism and socialism in ways that Engels did not envision
three facets to population size:
1. absolute size: of the world, of a country, a state or city, a neighborhood 2. distribution, relative size 3. density
top causes of death for infants in 2020
1. birth defects 2. preterm birth and low birth weight 3. SIDS 4. injuries 5. maternal pregnancy complications
causes of death; 3 categories
1. communicable or infectious diseases (bacterial, maternal conditions, perinatal conditions, nutritional deficiencies) 2. noncommunicable diseases (such as degenerative disease --> coronary heart disease, cancer, diabetes) 3. injuries
Measurements used to study mortality
1. comparisons, they tell us how common it is for an event to occur; in 2013 there were 8 deaths per 1000 population - rates are used to determine frequency of demographic events in a population during a specified time period (usually a year) most rates are expressed as per 1000 population; crude rates are rates computed for an entire population
three innovations in Data Sources generated by the data revolution
1. digitization data and crowd source data --> new data bases resulting from peer to peer collaboration 2. digital traces from social media ( 3. new opportunities for collecting primary data with internet-enabled devices
why Americans die so much: 3 broad country level differences
1. european countries have lower poverty levels and universal health insurance 2. there is more equality in European life spans between the rich and poor (eg where you live determines when you will die) 3. investing in science and tech and public policies have been successful but underacknowledged
critiques of DTT
1. it is ethnocentric --> laden with western values about individualism, nuclear family structure is the norm 2. industrialization and urbanization are preconditions 3. it is unclear if modernization is the prerequisite, or if a form of social modernization is first necessary
how to measure improvements in mortality
1. life span (the oldest age to which human beings can survive; almost entirely a biological phenomenon) 2. longevity
factors shaping mortality: 3 levels
1. macro level: social, political, and cultural structures including state and federal policies 2. meso level: community, family, and work structures 3. individual level: proximate factors such as behaviors, biology, and SES
ways of summarizing age structure
1. median age population 2. population pyramids 3. dependency ratio 4. average age (life expectancy)
limitations of the Epidemiological Transition
1. the eras are not necessarily sequential; pandemics can happen at any era 2. changes in the patterns of morbidity and mortality are reversible -> measles outbreak, corona deaths 3. the epidemiolgic transition does not explain heterogeneous disease patterns within countries 4. the focus on mortality, rather than morbidity - a stylized description of changes in mortality over time
why are the rates "crude"
1. they do not account for which people are actually at risk of the event; can they be more specific? who is more at risk? 2. they ignore the age structure of the population; if your population is very old or young, that will shape mortality
what was the first census on the internet
2020 census. it was supplemented by in-person enumerator visits. It was disrupted by covid and extended. undercount of college students is particularly bad
excess men in china
34 million
excess men in india
37 million
what factors determine which populations are old or young
= interaction of fertility, mortality, and migration produces the age and sex structures - the age structure is a window into a group's life --> is it a 'young" society? is there a bulge of workers? - declines in fertility rates result in an aging population - a large youthful population depicts a young country -visualized in age-sex pyramids
what are the youngest states
Alaska, utah
why measure race
Article 1 Section 2 of constitution initially stipulated the importance of race (taxation and representation) and racism (representation of Indians, enslaved Africans) - beginning with the first census, in 1790, the federal government began collecting data on race
which race group is growing most rapidly in the US
Asians accounted for nearly 7% of the US population in2020 - the asian racial category contains 19 different groups.
Rate of Natural Increase
CBR-CDR
In between Premodern demographic perspectives:
Confucius; Greeks (Plato, Aristotle)
General Formula for Crude Rates
Crude Rate = (E/P)*k - E is the # events to residents of a specific geographic location (eg. state, country, county) over some accounting period (usually a yer) -P is total population (or population at risk) for same geographic area (using mid-year pop); k is some constant (usually 1000 or 100,000)
Doubling Time
Demographers (and financiers) like to contemplate how long it will take for their favorite item - people or money to double - 70/r
Refinement of the DTT 1945
Frank Notestein developed a more formal theory of demographic transition (1945); incipient decline, transitional growth, high growth; Kingsley Davis was known for theorizing a 4 stage demographic transition, and coined the term demographic transition
Engles and Marx: A critique of Malthus
Fredrich Engles, criticized Malthus - The Marxian perspective: each society has its own law of population that determines population growth for capitalism, the consequences of overpopulation are poverty. Private property turns man into a commodity --> surplus population drives down wages for socialism, pop growth is readily absorbed by the economy with no side effects - Marx and engels rejected the notion that poverty could be blamed on the poor. More people more wealth
How are the boundaries of congressional districts decided?
From each census, Congress determines how the 435-50=385 seats in the House are to be distributed by state, based since 1941 on the method of equal proportions, which rank-orders a state's priority based on the total population of each state compared with other states. After each Census, the state legislature redraws their political boundaries to make sure that each Congressional district within the state is equally populated. There are no rules for how to do this which can lead to gerrymandering, or drawing safe districts that favor the retention of incumbents
How do we measure population growth?
Growth Rates: (population2- population1)/ Population 1 *100
an example of an early enumeration
In the Old Testament, there is a counting of the Israelites after they leave Egypt. The total came to 603,550 (excluded one of the Tribes, the Levites, and its been said that this number is impossibly large)
Stage 4
Incipient decline (BR low; DR low; Natural increase falling then stable)
Changes in relative population
India is projected to overtake China as the world's most populous country in 2023
example of expansive pop pyramid
Iraq
example of a constrictive pop pyramid
Japan, italy
the woman with the longest life span ever recorded
Jeanne Louise Calment: 1875-1997, born in france, 122 years. French say their lifestyle contributes
The Malthusian Perspective
Laws of Population: - food is necessary for the existence of man - populations appeared to increase by a fixed proportion over a given period of time (what Malthus calls a "geometrical ratio" or an exponential rate) - food supply on the other hand rises arithmetically
Does farmable land only increase at an arithmetic ratio?
Malthus believed that it took a good deal of effort to increase the amount of farmable land by one acre and he therefore believed that the population would outstrip its ability to feed itself
The Theory of Population Growth
Malthus held that the power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man; why? "population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ration. Subsistence increases only in arithmetical ratio." - the power of population is the view that populations will grow and grow and will outstrip their ability to feed themselves; the major consequence of population growth? according to Malthus, poverty and misery
Premodern Antinatalist Regimes:
St. Augustine
an alternative to crude rates: age-standardized/ age-adjusted rates
The AADR "standardizes" the age distribution of populations; it uses a population (the standard) to weight the rates, to account for differences in age comp (or other factors) - the standard pop can be any population
public policies shaped by world events
The English Poor Laws - the price of bread rose in the late 1700s esp during Napoleonic wars. but wages did not rise - result? crisis for agricultural workers - in 1814, the Tory govt passed the Corn Laws, which kept the price of grain artificially high there was a great deal of social unrest in 1815. In England, attitudes to poverty began to change after 1815; overhauls of the social welfare system considered
Setting the stage for Malthus
The enlightenment and industrialization spread ideas about rights of individuals, the perfectibility of human kind; many intellectuals viewed the world as inevitably progressing and endorsed new opportunities for human kind
Stage 3
Transitional growth (BR falling, DR falling more rapidly, Natural Increase increases thens lows down)
example of stationary pop pyramid (approaching)
US, Mexico
recent contemporary critiques of our economic system that have featured in political debate
Universal Basic Income (UBI)
Refinement of the DTT 1929
Warren Thompson observed changes, or transitions, in birth and death rates in industrialized societies over the past two hundred years or so
Did political leaders really believe in positive checks?
YES. arguments regarding "the underserving poor" circulated widely In the 1800s - in the face of the Irish Potato Famine in the 1840s, the Irish Catholic population was deemed irresponsible for having large families - in fact, Ireland exported corn to England --> where prices were high Malthus's arguments played a role in responses during the Great Potato Famine in Ireland (the goats anemic responses to mass starvation, reporting to emigration)
why is one rich or poor? views on hard work
a majority of Americans say people are rich because they have had more advantages in life; fewer say its because they have worked harder than others
Is demographic transition theory a theory?
a theory is a good theory if it accurately describes a large class of observations on the basis of a model that contains only a few arbitrary elements and makes a definite prediction about the results of future observations; theories are structures of ideas that explain and interpret facts
when did an increasing number of states repeal their anti-miscegenation laws
after wwII changes in views on eugenics; war brides from other countries
1980 census:
all the population was enumerated by mail-out mail-back (except for remote rural areas). Question about ancestry
war brides act of 1945
allowed non-asian spouses children, and adopted children to enter the US after wwII; ban on Asian spouses lifted in 1952; but immigration from 'the asiatic zone" remained low until 1965 with the passage of the hart-cellar act revising immigration quotas
2000 census
allowed respondents to check more than one race category
race, ethnicity, and education
among blacks and hispanics, college graduates are most likely to itnermarry
antinatalist
approaches assign a negative value to births
pronatalist
approaches favoring childbearing
age effect
at each age, social norms influence what is expected of you. we expect young people )<18) to be In school and we expect those same ages 25-55 to be at work
how has COVID affected growth rates in the US?
between 2020 and 2021 growth rates in the US was close to zero. more deaths, fewer births, low levels of migration
vital events
births, deaths, marriages, divorces, fetal deaths
modernization
changing social institutions alter living conditions, and subsequently shape death and birth rates
administrative data
collected for purposes other than demography, but useful for demographic analysis. Includes: immigration data, social security data, school enrollment data, tax returns, moving company data, utility hook-ups and disconnects
what about people?
concern with over-population of people how many people can the earth sustain?
Recent examples of gerrymandering
democrats (who were in the majority in the NY state legislature) redrew the district maps in 2021, and then tried to wait out the clock so their preferred districts would be used
how have pregnancy related deaths changed since the late 1980s
doubled- rising from 7.2 to 17.3 deaths per 100,000 live births in 2017
1910 census
for the 1st time, enumerators required to pass a written test. information on POB, MPOB, FPOB, Mother Tongue, and parents' mother tongues -> peak immigration
growth in a closed population:
for the world, there is no in-migration
The Modern Era (and beyond)
from 1650 --> 1860, Europe's population grew rapidly- the plague disappeared; new foods were introduced; agricultural practices changed - by the time of the industrial revolution in the world population was approaching 1 billion - since then (~270 years), the world population has increased dramatically (to 8 billion) - it is expected to grow more by the end of the 21st century. But whereas estimates once went to 11 B, they are now lower- 10
age cohort
group of people born during the same time period. Ex: class of 2025 all born around 2003; baby boom 1946-1965; Get Z
impacts of population processes on age/sex structure: fertiltiy
has a relatively small short-term effect. But in the long run it is by far the most important of the 3 population processes in influencing the shape
the current status of DTT
has been reformulated by taking into account new concepts: ideational change (individuation, valuing smaller families), diffusion of new ideas (eg. smaller families better, how to control fertility), the Princeton European Fertility Project was instrumental in this expanded view of the world; Secularization- modernization of thought (eg Enlightenment) may be as important as industrialization
stage 2
high potential growth rate (DR falls rapidly; BR high; Natural Increase Very Rapid)
race
historically referred to a social category defined by physical characteristics: skin color, hair texture, shape of features
Is the DTT really a theory? what is it predicting
how fertility rates fall
differential undercount
if some groups are better counted than others
the basic (wrong) Malthusian ideas about growth of population and food supply
if we start at 100 acres supporting 100 people and add 100 acres per decade (arithmetic) while the population increases 3% per year (geometric) there will be a few decades of food surplus before growth overtakes increased cultivation producing a food deficit
Closed population
in a closed population, population can increase or decrease only through births or deaths - pop2 - pop 1 = B(1,2) - D(1,2) - the difference between births and deaths is Natural Increase for the world's population - in an open population, migration (in or out) can influence growth - Growth rate = Birth rate - Death rate + Rate of Net Migration
how can countries improve their economic standing during stages 2 and 3
in stage 3, a country's working-age population grows larger relative to the young dependent population. The elderly are few With more people in the labor force and fewer people to support, countries have a window of opportunity for rapid economic growth --> a Demographic Divided. This requires the right social and economic investments in health, education!, governance, and the economy
Modernization Theory
in traditional societies, fertility and mortality are high. In modern societies, fertility and mortality are low. In between there is the demographic transition
period effects
induce similar changes in well-being for individuals of all ages -COVID impacted everyone from 2020-2022 -Great Depression affected all ages - everyone affected by WWII
How do societies become modern?
industrialization
Europe's highest dependency ratios (2020)
italy and finland
Why enumerate?
its mandated in the constitution for taxes and representatives.
impacts of population processes on age/sex: mortality
mortality can have both short and long run effects, but generally not very dramatic ones. improved health conditions lower death rates at all ages. but a decline in infant mortality or maternal mortality could contribute to a younger population
Leading Causes of Death v Actual Causes of Death in US 2000
leading: heart disease, cancer, stroke, chronic lower respiratory disease, unintentional injuries, diabetes Actual: tobacco, poor diet/physical inactivity, alc consumption, microbial agents, toxic agents, motor vehicles, firearms
Exponential Growth Rate
ln(p2/p1)*100
1996 Welfare Reform Act
low income women's fertility seen as irresponsible; European policies regarding work/family balance (paid parental leave child care, provisions, etc) encourage fertility
impact of population processes on age/sex structure: migration
migration has the most dramatic short-term impact on the distribution of people by age and sex - migrants change the prevailing age structure of the population if their age composition differs from the general populations; they also tend to be in the price childbearing years--> fertility; therefore, immigration tends to young the population
what is the driver of demographic change
modernization
in one day how much does the world's population increase
more than 200,000
cohort effect
one's birth cohort also shapes experiences; Baby boomers, millennials, gen z
is there something beyond the Demographic transition?
original assumption was that populations seek homeostasis--> stability in size, with birth rates equal to death rates - when reached, the transition would end - this is not actually consistent with evolutionary theory, and over the past few decades, new patterns have emerged.
cohort flow
people of the same age are influenced by the same historical circumstances. men born in the 1930s, the gay and lesbian population of the 1980s, those born in 2000
de facto population
people who are in a given territory on census day
de jure population
people who legally "belong" to a given area, regardless of whether they were there on the day of the census
undercounts
pew argues that the census undercounts the mixed-race population by virtue of its questions.
1850 census
place of birth appeared, in response to immigration from europe
Population Control: Ways of attaining balance
preventive checks and positive checks
Lexis Diagram
provides a convenient way of showing the relationship between periods and cohorts. Demographic events are shown in 3 ways: age, period, cohort
1990 census
questions on time of departure for workk included
Fast forward to the 18th Century
remember that there was considerable population growth in the 1700s. As of 1800k Europe accounted for about 20% of the world's population
what is based on popualation
representation and need for resources (health coverage, schools, public infrastructure, road maintenance, water facilities, etc)
people included in the census on the basis of usual residence
roughly defined as the place where a person usually sleeps
1940 census
sampling used for the first time for "long form" questions
trends in intermarriage
since 1967, steady rise
neo-malthusians
some did advocate for contraception as an acceptable means of deferring or preventing births
why is it difficult to enumerate populations?
some populations are difficult to find on the basis of usual residence (where a person usually sleeps) - college students who live away from home are now included in their college address, rather than their parent's households (though they may still be financial dependents) - snow birds, or those who might have several homes - there have been issues regarding Mormon Missionaries who live abroad for several years - debates about where to count prison inmates - homeless --> why? these get at which areas get representation and resources
Stage 1
stable (high birth and death rates)
where are dependency ratios greatest
states with more youth (eg Utah) also have higher DR
Demographic Transition Theory (DTT)
stylized way of looking at the association between population growth and the rate of natural increase by understanding trends in deaths and births
1970 census
the 1st inclusion of question on Spanish-origin population
Premodern demographic perspectives Pronatalist Regimes:
the Roman Empire: Cicero Julia and Augusts Caesar, Ibn Khaldun; Thomas Aquinas
what does a focus on post-neo-natal deaths suggest about the US
the US could make considerable strides towards reducing preventable infant mortality
how do we define maternal deaths
the WHO defines a mortality death as a death while pregnant or within 42 days of the end of pregnancy, from any cause related to or aggravated by the pregnancy or its management - maternal mortality rates are the# of maternal deaths per 100,000 live births - in 2020, 861 women were identified as having died of maternal causes in the US vs. 754 in 2019 - the MMR for 2020 was 23.8 per 100,000 live births
census 1790-1830
the first 5 censuses were mainly concerned with enumerating the number of free residents and slaves
1870 census
the nation's population reached 40 million Deficient census, with many complaints about the quality. Reconstruction era (1865-1877) following civil war
how many representatives per population?
the number of representatives shall not exceed one for every 30 thousand, but each state shall have at least 1 representative - the constitutional congress wanted to avoid small groups having undo power
the sex ratio
the proportion of one sex to the proportion of another sex times a constant. aka Masculinity ratio because males are in the enumerator and females in the denominator. population of males/females *1000 100 is the balance point between the sexes. A sex ratio above 100 denotes an excess of males and below denotes excess of females
census race categories since 2000
the race categories used in the Census have changed minimally since 2000; since 2000, respondents can select one or more races - but race and ethnicity are still separate. new groups (MENA) have not been added. some argue that census o longer reflects common understanding of what Hispanic is.
Demography
the scientific study of human population
Political debates at the Time: the fate of the poor
there was much debate about what to do for the poor - local parishes had handled their poor but with increased migration due to industrialization that became less feasible. who should care for the poor? if they could work, should they? how well should they be supported? these troops are predecessors of how poverty is discussed today - are some poor more deserving than others? what characterizes more deserving poor? (widows, orphans)
1840 census
this was the first census to use household rather than the individual as the unit of enumeration
what amount of infant deaths in the US occur within a month after birth
two-thirds
how vital is data on population sex composition
very! the balance of sexes affects social and economic relationships within communities - shortage of male workers during WWII drew women into paid labor force - return of the male civilian population post WWII again shifted women's roles --? back to the home - there are often discussions of.a marriage squeeze (shortage of men to women in marriageable ages) - are there enough workers to support the elderly?
Positive checks
war, disease, family these checks were essential because preventive checks were not working. they would lead to the return to balance of population size
ethnicity
was historically defined by cultural characteristics: language, religion, ancestry, history, region. it is the sense of identification with a membership in a particular ethnic group.
coverage error
when people are not counted, or when they are counted more than once - the difference between the undercount and overcount is the net census undercount
Is the DTT really a theory? what is it explaining
when populations will grow or decline
content error
when there are problems with data accuracy - age-heaping problem; non-response problem' misunderstand question (ex: racial/ethnic hispanic)
why is CDR higher for non-hispanic whites than blacks?
whites are older
Quantifying the Enumeration: when
within 3 years after the first meeting of the congress of the Us and within every subsequent term of ten years - congress met in NYC in 1789 and the first census was conducted in 1790
as mortality has declined, who has benefitted disproportionately
women. less maternal mortality in prime years means longer life expectancy.