4.1 Human Population

demographic factors

population characteristics such as birth rate that influence changes in population size and composition

Zero-population growth

the absence of population growth; occurs when birth rates equal death rates

Desired fertility

the ideal number of children an individual indicates he or she would like to have Influenced by health, education, economic conditions, culture, and religion

Immigration

the movement of individuals into a given population

Emigration

the movement of individuals out of a given population

Total fertility rate (TFR)

the number of children the average woman has in her lifetime variable place to place and is correlated with desired fertility and population size.

Crude death rate

the number of deaths per 1,000 individuals per year Less variable worldwide In 2015 was 8 per 1,000 for the planet as a whole Average was 7 in developing countries and 10 in developed countries

Crude birth rate

the number of offspring per 1,000 individuals per year Tends to be almost twice as high in less developed countries

Age structure

the percentage of the population that is distributed into various age groups typically male/females found in specific age groups

Replacement fertility

the rate at which children must be born to replace those dying in the population Reached in Kerala by 1987

Demography

the statistical analysis of the characteristics of a population

Population momentum:

the tendency of a young population to continue to grow even after birth rates drop to replacement fertility (two children per couple) Young women in the population who still have not given birth to any children have the potential to contribute to a population size increase for another generation.

Summary of Kerala

-achieved 100% literacy and subreplacement fertality -succeeded at reduicng number of people consuming resources, but did so without increasing the consumption of resources by each member of society which maintained its carrying capacity

What is the demographic transition, and why is it important?

Helping low-income countries develop economically may spur a demographic transition that could decrease population growth rates.

Explaining the Success in Kerala

Kerala's culture gave it three distinct advantages in spreading education and healthcare. 1. The state was always matrilineal. Power, land, and money passed down through daughters rather than sons. Women, especially those in higher castes, were routinely educated. 2. There is no real divide between urban and rural areas in Kerala. Unlike other states in India, schools and health clinics didn't get concentrated in cities but instead were accessible to both groups. 3. The state boasted an above average concentration of missionary schools that catered to people of all faiths.

Global TFR

2

How are age structure diagrams used to predict future population growth?

A population with mostly young people has a greater potential for growth because many people are of childbearing age or younger. A population with similar numbers in all age classes is fairly stable, as those that are born replace those who die. A population may even be shrinking if more of the population is found in older, post-reproductive age classes

What factors affect population growth?

A variety of pronatalist pressures, such as high infant mortality, lead to higher desired family size, which correlates well with the high population growth rates seen in less developed countries. It is in these areas where most future growth will occur.

The Current Human Population Distribution

The distribution of humans around the world is wildly uneven. Most human populations are located close to the ocean or major rivers. The vast majority (60%) live in just 10 countries; more than half live in Asia. The two most populous countries are China and India.

How has the human population size and growth rate changed over time?

The human population grew very slowly for most of human history. Only recently have accelerated growth rates sent our population soaring past 7 billion. World population is projected to stabilize around 11 billion by 2100.

Current Trends in Human Population Growth

The human population is growing at a slower rate than it was in the mid-twentieth century, due to decreases in birth rates. Current birth rate is just over 1%. At this rate, there would be more than 25 billion people on Earth by the year 2100.

Core Message

The human population is increasing rapidly and is now more than 7 billion. Human impact on the environment is due both to our sheer numbers and to an increasing impact per person. To address population growth, we need to pursue a variety of approaches that address the factors that encourage high birth rates; many of these approaches focus on issues of social justice.

Childhood mortality rate

The number of children under 5 years of age that die per every 1,000 live births in that year If some children likely to die young, couples more likely to have more children

How does the age structure of a population influence its growth?

Youthful populations have a great deal of population momentum and will continue to grow even if these young people have replacement fertility.

Demographic transition

a theoretical model that describes the expected drop in once-high population growth rates as economic conditions improve the quality of life in a population Happens as a country's economy changes from preindustrial to postindustrial, when low birth and death rates replace high birth and death rates

Industrializing:

better conditions lead to lower death rates; birth rates remain high, resulting in rapid population growth

Preindustrial Demographic Transition Stage

birth and death rates are high but similar; population growth is slow or stationary; population size is low

Postindustrial

birth rates are similar to death rates; population growth stabilizes at a new higher population size

Mature industrial

birth rates begin to fall but still outnumber deaths; population is still growing but at a slower rate

____ and ____ for women correlate with lower population growth in many regions

education of girls and economic opporitunities

Pronatalist pressure

factor that increases the desire to have children. Pressure may come from: Cultural or religious views that favor large families The need for children to work the farm or care for elderly parents Lack of access to contraception

Reducing TFR

in 1970s, it was thought that the best way to reduce is to grow economy. At the same time, Indian economist Amartya Sen proposed building development policies around quality of life. This was a success in Kerala, India

Achieving zero population growth is linked to ___

social justice

How does education help fertility?

Education empowers women to take more control over their lives and their fertility by: Demanding and using birth control Marrying later Delaying childbirth while pursuing a career Women who earn more can better support their families, which correlates to a decrease in childhood mortality.

How can addressing social justice issues help achieve zero population growth?

In many cases, addressing social justice issues, especially improving the well-being of women and children, is the key to reducing total fertility and reaching zero population growth.

Kerala model: Case Study

India is a developing country on track to surpass China as the world's most populous nation, and it must find ways to stem population growth. In 1988, volunteers descended on Erakulam, a city of about 3 million people in the state of Kerala, India. The Erakulam campaign made Kerala the first fully literate state in all of India. As literacy rates went up, the state's population stopped growing so quickly. The achievement was so unprecedented that economists named it the Kerala model.

How big is the human population today, and where do most of these people live?

More than 7.5 billion people inhabit Earth; 60% live in just 10 countries, most of those in China and India.

Industrial Revolution

The Industrial Revolution in correlated with the next big increase in the human population. Led to dramatic improvements in sanitation and health care. Decreased death rates More than doubled life expectancy at birth since 1800 Continued population surges as improvements spread to developing countries like India and China

The Agricultural Revolution

was the prehistoric transition from hunter-gatherer societies that were small and nomadic to farming societies that were stationary and larger. Led to the first dramatic increase in the human population for two reasons: 1. It enabled us to produce more food and feed more people. 2. It created a greater need for human labor which in turn created an incentive for people to have more children. With farms, people also ate better and lived longer. Death rates dropped, birth rates stayed high, and the number of people increased.