AP Gov Chapter 10 Political Socialization and Public Opinion
Differences in political socialization between African-Americans and whites from early age through adulthood
African Americans will traditionally vote for more leftist policies, whereas whites are more likely to lean right
random sampling
a method of poll selection that gives each person in a group the same chance of being selected
filter question
a question that screens out respondents who are not qualified to answer a second question
what size sample provides good estimates of actual behavior
a sample size of 10% of the population of a sample
stratified sampling
a variation of random sampling; the population is divided into subgroups and weighted based on demographic characteristics of the national population
Political socialization in early years up to age ten
early on, children learn their parents' political values even though these concepts may be vague; the most important visible public figures for children under 10 are police officers and the president
Causes of differences
different type of upbringings and culture associated with time periods
"I" centered
egocentric
Who uses exit polls?
large news organizations
Inability to measure intensity of feeling about particular issues
leads to inaccurate conclusions
Politics Now: Cell Phones Challenge Pollsters
make something up
American's knowledge of history and politics
massive increase in knowledge since implementation of public schooling
Role Political leaders play in influencing public opinion
massive. people are likely to follow the opinion of someone they look up to
Gender differences in political knowledge
men are generally more knowledgable
Native Americans' response to issues
more likely to support laws that increase Native American reserve land or support them
Random-digit dialing surveys
most common form of telephone polls
telephone polls
most frequently used mechanism; random-digit dialing survey is most common form
Homogeneous society in early america
most of those who could vote during john jay's time were of english heritage & christian, most believed certain rights (speech, associaton, religion) could not be revoked, Jay also spoke of shared public opinion
What affects attitudes on issues that do not affect someone individually
news and media
Efforts by newspapers in 1824 and 1833
newspapers attempted to predict the outcome of the presidential elections to no avail
Ideological Self-Identification of Protestants, Catholics, and Jews (Figure 11.2)
nothing in this damn book, make something up
Age and an individual's view of the proper role of government
often depends on the era in which a person is born
Which age group advocates increased governmental role in area of medical insurance
older people, particularly retirees
American Opinion on Gasoline Taxes
overall negative
Reciprocal effect
parental detachment and delinquent peers; can go back and forth
Peers
people of the same age who share similar interests, large factor for political socialization
Liberals
people who generally favor government action and view change as progress
conservatives
people who generally favor limited government and are cautious about change
effect of regional and sectional differences in developing and maintaining political beliefs since colonial times
political beliefs are often formed by culture associated with one's region, made clear by the political divide between north and south in 1800s
Greater sophistication in the late 1940s
polling techniques rose in overall sophistication during this time period
Exit Polls
polls based on interviews conducted on election day with randomly selected voters
push polls
polls taken for the purpose of providing information on an opponent that would lead respondents to vote against that candidate
Suggested reasons for a women's more liberal attitudes on social welfare concerns
women's more nurturing nature
John Jay in Federalist No. 2
wrote of sameness of American people and believed that Americans had more in common that not, "we are one united people..." (the other 2 after this one are at the end, i accidentally moved them)
Do candidates use this poll method?
yes
How Random-digit dialing surveys are conducted
a computer randomly selects telephone numbers for dialing
Leaders of the Civil Rights Movement
-Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.: lead a lot of peaceful protests, was put in jail, amd delivered I Have A Dream Speech -Rosa Parks: Refused to give up her seat to whote man on bus, lead to Montogomery Bus Boycott -Malcom X: key spokesman for Nation of Islam, got tired with non violent protests, killed by members of Nation of Islam
Three errors in straw polling by Literary Digest
1) it drew its sample from telephone directories and lists of automobile owners 2)timing 3)self-selection
1988 study of political socialization by family
1988 study of political socialization by family 58% of children in republican households identified themselves as republicans and many had developed strong positive feelings toward Reagan, the republican president at the time
Average time for TV sound bite in 2004
7.7 seconds
Networks form own polling pool
?
Where our attitudes about issues are grounded
?
Weekly Reader
A magazine for elementary aged students to get them involved with current events and politics.
Impact of alternate sources of political information on TV
Americans who watch political focused shows have more knowledge than their peers who do not consume any political media. Alternate sources allow for increases in alternate views.
Asian/Pacific Islander's response to political issues
Asians and pacific islanders are more likely to support policies in their own interests
George Gallup
Came up with a successful statistical method of survey sampling for measuring public opinion
Liberalism and Conservatism of college students
College students are very likely to lean one way or the other, very few are "on the fence".
Elementary school influence
Elementary is the earliest stage that political socialization is implemented. Students begin learning about the United States and politics around this age.
National Election Study
Focuses on the political attitudes and behavior of the electorate
Pat Robertson and the Christian Coalition
Founded by this evangelical minister, this was a prominent organization of the Religious Right in the culture wars of the Nineties. It launched crusades against gay rights, abortion, secularism in public schools and government aid to the arts.
The success of the Gallup Poll in Presidential Election, 1936-2008 (Figure 11.4)
Gallup has an absurdly high accuracy rate in predicting the election, with very few inconsistencies
George W. Bush and fall in public opinion in polls over Iraq war
George lost major points because many people didn't support the Iraq war
Walter Lippmann
His Public Opinion assumed powerful media effects in 1920s
Hispanics' response to issues
Hispanics are more likely than other groups to support legalized immigration policies
Role of TV talk shows in 2004 presidential election
Hosts of popular political talk show hosts are responsible for acquiring massive numbers of votes for their respective parties during this election.
Impact of TV
It influenced American viewers on politics, civil rights etc.
Characteristics of the South
Lots of retirees and baby boomers, generally support republican party
Jerry Falwell and the Moral Majority
Perhaps the central figure in the Religious Right during the Conservative Resurgence, this Virginia minister and his organization called for a "war against sin" and encouraged the election of "pro-life, pro-America, "pro-family" candidates to public office.
Nixon's Silent Majority
Moderate, mainstream Americans who quietly supported Nixon.
Differences between the north and south
North generally leans left, south generally leans right
Gender Differences on Political Issues
Overall vote similarly, but in some cases women are more likely to lean left whereas men might lean right
Role of Religion
Political scientists have found significant evidence that religion affects the political beliefs and behaviors of the American citizenry.
Exit polls
Polls conducted as voters leave selected polling places on Election Day.
Literary Digest
Popular magazine that first began national presidential polling in 1916
Presidential efforts to drum up support for their programs
Propaganda and other political advertisements
Importance of race and ethnicity as factors in elections and the study of public opinion
Race plays a big part in elections because smaller minority groups tend to vote similarly, so winning over a race of people can have a big impact. Public opinion is how the public views a candidate or issue.
Characteristics of the west
TONS of millenials, generally support leftist or socialist policies
Pledge of Allegiance
The American patriotic vow, which is often recited at formal government ceremonies, and at all US Public Schools.
college influence
The college one attends can also have effects on ones political beliefs. More liberal campuses are more likely to have students that lean left and vice versa.
Voter News Service (VNS)
The conglomerate organization that provided the major networks with their exit poll data. In 2000 they had many errors concerning the state of Florida, leading many networks to predict the outcome prematurely.
Join the Debate: Teaching Civics in American High Schools
This one is up to you guys, just write something about if you are for or against teaching civics.
Exit polls in 1980 presidential election
Used to determine how people felt about candidates
Percentage of Americans who consider religion a part of their lives
about 27%
Views of whites and blacks in Wake of Hurricane Katrina (Figure 11.3)
again, nothing in this DAMN book even hints at the existence of something even MENTIONING hurricane Katrina
Stark regional differences in candidate appeal in 2004 presidential election
all regions voted with their party with little or no differentiation
Individual, in-person interviews
allows surveyors to monitor respondents' body language and to interact on a more personal basis
Americans' knowledge about foreign policy and geography
also woefully low, most dont understand even the basics
time in front of TV
american teenagers consume nearly 11 hours of media per day. Many American adults spend a comparable number of hours in front of their TV.
political socialization by age eleven
by age 11 children begin to become more selective in their perceptions of the president, by this age children raised in democratic households are much more likely to be critical of a republican president than are those raised in republican households
1972 appearance of religious gap in voting and public opinion
can't find this one in the book or online, make something up
Analyzing visuals: Racial and Ethnic Attitudes on selected issues
certain ethnic or racial groups often have strong opinions toward certain political candidates or issues
ideological self-identification of first-year college student (figure 11.1)
college students tend to be more "middle of the road"; support/popularity of reagan translated to support of republican party through 1988 presidential election and also contributed to the decline of liberal ideological self-identification of 1st year college students
tracking polls
continuous surveys that enable a campaign or news organization to chart a candidate's daily rise or fall in support
agents of political socialization
family, media, school
Women's opinions about war
generally are unsupportive
Accuracy of small samples
generally higher but not generalizable
Role of Public opinion and governance
generally speaking, the public will not elect people with a poor public opinion, and thus, only those with a good public opinion will be able to shape how the nation is governed
When respondents don't care about an issue of lack information
give answers like "no opinion"
Gallup Poll in presidential elections
gives accurate predictions consistently
followers
group of people who "follow" or mimic the views of a leader
Shared religious attitudes and tendency to affect voting and issue stance
historically, people with similar religious affiliations vote similarly in both presidential elections and policies
Determining the Content and Phrasing the questions
important factor in designing the survey and sample
Growing Role
in recent years, as access to technology and online news websites has increased, the role the media plays in political socialization has increased.
"Dewey Defeats Truman" headline
incorrect prediction led to a false newsprint of Dewey winning
Americans political knowledge
incredibly low, especially among youths
public opinion polls
interviews or surveys with samples of citizens that are used to estimate the feelings and beliefs of the entire population
what push polls are designed to do
providing information on an opponent that would lead respondents to vote against that candidate
Push poll questions
questions that cross the line
Today's second largest predictor of the vote (after party identification)
religious affiliation
Accuracy of any poll depends on what?
sample size and sampling method
high school influence
similar to the elementary age influences, students will continue to succumb to the effects of political socialization from the pledge of allegiance and discussions with their peers.
Responses often tied to wording of a particular question
skewed
How it leads to inaccuracies
small samples sizes are not generalizable for a larger population
Gallup and 1936 election
successfully predicted by Gallup
Faith-based political activity through much of the twentieth century from the left
support of Israel aid policies from Jewish voters, supporting Parochial schools from evangelical Christians, etc.
Problem with straw polls used on TV news programs or online service
survey error, response bias, etc.
Effect of terrorism and national security concerns on women's opinions
terrorism has raised concerns for security and has caused women to overall increase support of wars
political ideology
the coherent set of values and beliefs about the purpose and scope of government held by groups and individuals
communications and receptivity
the influence of the family on political socialization can be traced to communications and receptivity
Role of the internet
the internet has allowed many people access to political information who otherwise would not have it. This has led to an overall increase in political education.
Wording of the question
the most important influence on the answers given to a sample survey
Age and opinions on funding Medicare or Social Security
the older the person, the more likely they are to support socialist policies that will benefit them
Bully Pulpit
the president's use of his prestige and visibility to guide or enthuse the American public
political socialization
the process through which individuals acquire their political beliefs and values
Why opinions of poor and homeless are underrepresented
they dont have cell phones or internet to respond to polls
Building Patriotism at a young age
things like the pledge of allegiance and American History are implemented in schools to try to instill patriot values at an early age
today's heterogeneous society
today we're more diverse but still agree on many things-most people want less government at the national level and a better nation for their children & so did those in the times of the framers
A daily tracking poll for the 2008 presidential election
tracks percentage of registered voters in days leading up to election
straw poll
unscientific survey used to gauge public opinion on a variety of issues and policies
How polls are used
used to answer a question or produce a prediction
Issues that do not affect someone individually and do not involve morality
we often have difficulty forming an opinion
public opinion
what the public thinks about a particular issue or set of issues at any point in time