AP Gov Chapter 10 Political Socialization and Public Opinion

Differences in political socialization between African-Americans and whites from early age through adulthood

African Americans will traditionally vote for more leftist policies, whereas whites are more likely to lean right

random sampling

a method of poll selection that gives each person in a group the same chance of being selected

filter question

a question that screens out respondents who are not qualified to answer a second question

what size sample provides good estimates of actual behavior

a sample size of 10% of the population of a sample

stratified sampling

a variation of random sampling; the population is divided into subgroups and weighted based on demographic characteristics of the national population

Political socialization in early years up to age ten

early on, children learn their parents' political values even though these concepts may be vague; the most important visible public figures for children under 10 are police officers and the president

Causes of differences

different type of upbringings and culture associated with time periods

"I" centered

egocentric

Who uses exit polls?

large news organizations

Inability to measure intensity of feeling about particular issues

leads to inaccurate conclusions

Politics Now: Cell Phones Challenge Pollsters

make something up

American's knowledge of history and politics

massive increase in knowledge since implementation of public schooling

Role Political leaders play in influencing public opinion

massive. people are likely to follow the opinion of someone they look up to

Gender differences in political knowledge

men are generally more knowledgable

Native Americans' response to issues

more likely to support laws that increase Native American reserve land or support them

Random-digit dialing surveys

most common form of telephone polls

telephone polls

most frequently used mechanism; random-digit dialing survey is most common form

Homogeneous society in early america

most of those who could vote during john jay's time were of english heritage & christian, most believed certain rights (speech, associaton, religion) could not be revoked, Jay also spoke of shared public opinion

What affects attitudes on issues that do not affect someone individually

news and media

Efforts by newspapers in 1824 and 1833

newspapers attempted to predict the outcome of the presidential elections to no avail

Ideological Self-Identification of Protestants, Catholics, and Jews (Figure 11.2)

nothing in this damn book, make something up

Age and an individual's view of the proper role of government

often depends on the era in which a person is born

Which age group advocates increased governmental role in area of medical insurance

older people, particularly retirees

American Opinion on Gasoline Taxes

overall negative

Reciprocal effect

parental detachment and delinquent peers; can go back and forth

Peers

people of the same age who share similar interests, large factor for political socialization

Liberals

people who generally favor government action and view change as progress

conservatives

people who generally favor limited government and are cautious about change

effect of regional and sectional differences in developing and maintaining political beliefs since colonial times

political beliefs are often formed by culture associated with one's region, made clear by the political divide between north and south in 1800s

Greater sophistication in the late 1940s

polling techniques rose in overall sophistication during this time period

Exit Polls

polls based on interviews conducted on election day with randomly selected voters

push polls

polls taken for the purpose of providing information on an opponent that would lead respondents to vote against that candidate

Suggested reasons for a women's more liberal attitudes on social welfare concerns

women's more nurturing nature

John Jay in Federalist No. 2

wrote of sameness of American people and believed that Americans had more in common that not, "we are one united people..." (the other 2 after this one are at the end, i accidentally moved them)

Do candidates use this poll method?

yes

How Random-digit dialing surveys are conducted

a computer randomly selects telephone numbers for dialing

Leaders of the Civil Rights Movement

-Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.: lead a lot of peaceful protests, was put in jail, amd delivered I Have A Dream Speech -Rosa Parks: Refused to give up her seat to whote man on bus, lead to Montogomery Bus Boycott -Malcom X: key spokesman for Nation of Islam, got tired with non violent protests, killed by members of Nation of Islam

Three errors in straw polling by Literary Digest

1) it drew its sample from telephone directories and lists of automobile owners 2)timing 3)self-selection

1988 study of political socialization by family

1988 study of political socialization by family 58% of children in republican households identified themselves as republicans and many had developed strong positive feelings toward Reagan, the republican president at the time

Average time for TV sound bite in 2004

7.7 seconds

Networks form own polling pool

?

Where our attitudes about issues are grounded

?

Weekly Reader

A magazine for elementary aged students to get them involved with current events and politics.

Impact of alternate sources of political information on TV

Americans who watch political focused shows have more knowledge than their peers who do not consume any political media. Alternate sources allow for increases in alternate views.

Asian/Pacific Islander's response to political issues

Asians and pacific islanders are more likely to support policies in their own interests

George Gallup

Came up with a successful statistical method of survey sampling for measuring public opinion

Liberalism and Conservatism of college students

College students are very likely to lean one way or the other, very few are "on the fence".

Elementary school influence

Elementary is the earliest stage that political socialization is implemented. Students begin learning about the United States and politics around this age.

National Election Study

Focuses on the political attitudes and behavior of the electorate

Pat Robertson and the Christian Coalition

Founded by this evangelical minister, this was a prominent organization of the Religious Right in the culture wars of the Nineties. It launched crusades against gay rights, abortion, secularism in public schools and government aid to the arts.

The success of the Gallup Poll in Presidential Election, 1936-2008 (Figure 11.4)

Gallup has an absurdly high accuracy rate in predicting the election, with very few inconsistencies

George W. Bush and fall in public opinion in polls over Iraq war

George lost major points because many people didn't support the Iraq war

Walter Lippmann

His Public Opinion assumed powerful media effects in 1920s

Hispanics' response to issues

Hispanics are more likely than other groups to support legalized immigration policies

Role of TV talk shows in 2004 presidential election

Hosts of popular political talk show hosts are responsible for acquiring massive numbers of votes for their respective parties during this election.

Impact of TV

It influenced American viewers on politics, civil rights etc.

Characteristics of the South

Lots of retirees and baby boomers, generally support republican party

Jerry Falwell and the Moral Majority

Perhaps the central figure in the Religious Right during the Conservative Resurgence, this Virginia minister and his organization called for a "war against sin" and encouraged the election of "pro-life, pro-America, "pro-family" candidates to public office.

Nixon's Silent Majority

Moderate, mainstream Americans who quietly supported Nixon.

Differences between the north and south

North generally leans left, south generally leans right

Gender Differences on Political Issues

Overall vote similarly, but in some cases women are more likely to lean left whereas men might lean right

Role of Religion

Political scientists have found significant evidence that religion affects the political beliefs and behaviors of the American citizenry.

Exit polls

Polls conducted as voters leave selected polling places on Election Day.

Literary Digest

Popular magazine that first began national presidential polling in 1916

Presidential efforts to drum up support for their programs

Propaganda and other political advertisements

Importance of race and ethnicity as factors in elections and the study of public opinion

Race plays a big part in elections because smaller minority groups tend to vote similarly, so winning over a race of people can have a big impact. Public opinion is how the public views a candidate or issue.

Characteristics of the west

TONS of millenials, generally support leftist or socialist policies

Pledge of Allegiance

The American patriotic vow, which is often recited at formal government ceremonies, and at all US Public Schools.

college influence

The college one attends can also have effects on ones political beliefs. More liberal campuses are more likely to have students that lean left and vice versa.

Voter News Service (VNS)

The conglomerate organization that provided the major networks with their exit poll data. In 2000 they had many errors concerning the state of Florida, leading many networks to predict the outcome prematurely.

Join the Debate: Teaching Civics in American High Schools

This one is up to you guys, just write something about if you are for or against teaching civics.

Exit polls in 1980 presidential election

Used to determine how people felt about candidates

Percentage of Americans who consider religion a part of their lives

about 27%

Views of whites and blacks in Wake of Hurricane Katrina (Figure 11.3)

again, nothing in this DAMN book even hints at the existence of something even MENTIONING hurricane Katrina

Stark regional differences in candidate appeal in 2004 presidential election

all regions voted with their party with little or no differentiation

Individual, in-person interviews

allows surveyors to monitor respondents' body language and to interact on a more personal basis

Americans' knowledge about foreign policy and geography

also woefully low, most dont understand even the basics

time in front of TV

american teenagers consume nearly 11 hours of media per day. Many American adults spend a comparable number of hours in front of their TV.

political socialization by age eleven

by age 11 children begin to become more selective in their perceptions of the president, by this age children raised in democratic households are much more likely to be critical of a republican president than are those raised in republican households

1972 appearance of religious gap in voting and public opinion

can't find this one in the book or online, make something up

Analyzing visuals: Racial and Ethnic Attitudes on selected issues

certain ethnic or racial groups often have strong opinions toward certain political candidates or issues

ideological self-identification of first-year college student (figure 11.1)

college students tend to be more "middle of the road"; support/popularity of reagan translated to support of republican party through 1988 presidential election and also contributed to the decline of liberal ideological self-identification of 1st year college students

tracking polls

continuous surveys that enable a campaign or news organization to chart a candidate's daily rise or fall in support

agents of political socialization

family, media, school

Women's opinions about war

generally are unsupportive

Accuracy of small samples

generally higher but not generalizable

Role of Public opinion and governance

generally speaking, the public will not elect people with a poor public opinion, and thus, only those with a good public opinion will be able to shape how the nation is governed

When respondents don't care about an issue of lack information

give answers like "no opinion"

Gallup Poll in presidential elections

gives accurate predictions consistently

followers

group of people who "follow" or mimic the views of a leader

Shared religious attitudes and tendency to affect voting and issue stance

historically, people with similar religious affiliations vote similarly in both presidential elections and policies

Determining the Content and Phrasing the questions

important factor in designing the survey and sample

Growing Role

in recent years, as access to technology and online news websites has increased, the role the media plays in political socialization has increased.

"Dewey Defeats Truman" headline

incorrect prediction led to a false newsprint of Dewey winning

Americans political knowledge

incredibly low, especially among youths

public opinion polls

interviews or surveys with samples of citizens that are used to estimate the feelings and beliefs of the entire population

what push polls are designed to do

providing information on an opponent that would lead respondents to vote against that candidate

Push poll questions

questions that cross the line

Today's second largest predictor of the vote (after party identification)

religious affiliation

Accuracy of any poll depends on what?

sample size and sampling method

high school influence

similar to the elementary age influences, students will continue to succumb to the effects of political socialization from the pledge of allegiance and discussions with their peers.

Responses often tied to wording of a particular question

skewed

How it leads to inaccuracies

small samples sizes are not generalizable for a larger population

Gallup and 1936 election

successfully predicted by Gallup

Faith-based political activity through much of the twentieth century from the left

support of Israel aid policies from Jewish voters, supporting Parochial schools from evangelical Christians, etc.

Problem with straw polls used on TV news programs or online service

survey error, response bias, etc.

Effect of terrorism and national security concerns on women's opinions

terrorism has raised concerns for security and has caused women to overall increase support of wars

political ideology

the coherent set of values and beliefs about the purpose and scope of government held by groups and individuals

communications and receptivity

the influence of the family on political socialization can be traced to communications and receptivity

Role of the internet

the internet has allowed many people access to political information who otherwise would not have it. This has led to an overall increase in political education.

Wording of the question

the most important influence on the answers given to a sample survey

Age and opinions on funding Medicare or Social Security

the older the person, the more likely they are to support socialist policies that will benefit them

Bully Pulpit

the president's use of his prestige and visibility to guide or enthuse the American public

political socialization

the process through which individuals acquire their political beliefs and values

Why opinions of poor and homeless are underrepresented

they dont have cell phones or internet to respond to polls

Building Patriotism at a young age

things like the pledge of allegiance and American History are implemented in schools to try to instill patriot values at an early age

today's heterogeneous society

today we're more diverse but still agree on many things-most people want less government at the national level and a better nation for their children & so did those in the times of the framers

A daily tracking poll for the 2008 presidential election

tracks percentage of registered voters in days leading up to election

straw poll

unscientific survey used to gauge public opinion on a variety of issues and policies

How polls are used

used to answer a question or produce a prediction

Issues that do not affect someone individually and do not involve morality

we often have difficulty forming an opinion

public opinion

what the public thinks about a particular issue or set of issues at any point in time