Chapter 11: LECTURE REASONING AND DECISION MAKING

Types of Conscious Reasoning: Algorithm is?

ANSWER: A complex rule, procedure, or specific set of steps that always produces the correct answer if followed correctly. (ex. area of a triangle is 1/2 base times height, to make a chocolate cake, follow these steps.) NOTE: follow a formula that always produce correct answer.

An African-American is caught with drugs in the TV show COPS, an African-American is involved in a gang shooting shown in the 10:00 news, Encounter an African-American, assume that they might be a criminal (Forming negative stereotypes of African Americans). Stereotype is?

ANSWER: A generalization of qualities about a group of people. A person believes that all members of a group share common traits and behaviors (positive, negative or neutral). NOTE: Exposure, experience and culture can determine the basis for deductive conclusions inductive conclusions. NOTE: Difference between: Generalization, reasoning, then example, then apply generalization to example. Observe observation and see commonality among observations.

Conditional Reasoning is?

ANSWER: A logical determination of whether the evidence supports, contradicts or is irrelevant to the stated if-then relationship. PROFESSOR NOTES: • Antecedent (If) • Consequent (Then)

Bias is?

ANSWER: A preference or inclination, especially one that limits an impartial judgement.

Reasoning means?

ANSWER: A purposeful mental activity that involves operating on information in order to reach conclusions. NOTE: Reasoning requires us to draw specific assumptions/inferences from observations, facts or assumptions.

Circular argument is when?

ANSWER: An argument or claim assumes the conclusion in some way. Such an argument is true based on logic, yet provides no reason to support a conclusion. PROF NOTES: • "I like vanilla ice cream, because it's my favorite kind." • "Barack Obama was the best candidate for president, because he was better than any of the others."

Inductive reasoning is?

ANSWER: Drawing a general conclusion from specific observation. PROF NOTES: A set of observation serves as evidence. From the observations, you generate an overall theory or generalization, • It was cloudy on Monday and it rained. It was cloudy on Tuesday and it rained. It is cloudy on Wednesday then it should rain (assume that clouds precede the rain) • Mothers often cook food at home. Mothers often do the laundry. Mothers often clean the house (generate a schema for the gender role of Mothers taking up more responsibility in managing the home) NOTE: Start with series of observations and form conclusion (with deductive reasoning I believe?)

Framing Effect (Heuristic):

ANSWER: People are strongly affected by the wording of information that they are given. PROF NOTES: In general, people tend to avoid or minimize risks and losses when they make decisions. PROF NOTES: Two sets of contraceptive brands were shown to 2 groups of people. One brand mentioned the 95% success rate of the contraceptive while the other brand mentioned the 5% failure rate of the contraceptive. Which brand will people be more likely to use?

Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic:

ANSWER: People start with a suggested reference point (the "anchor") and make adjustments based on it in order to reach their estimate or make a choice.

Types of Conscious Reasoning: Logic is?

ANSWER: Providing support or drawing conclusions based on arguments that use given evidence and claims. PROF NOTES: -Arguments and Facts -Inferences and Conclusions are generated NOTES: looks at facts and argument and make inference and conclusions

Deductive reasoning is?

ANSWER: Reasoning where a conclusion follows from a set of general claims or observations. If the claims and observations are true, then the conclusion should be true. Applying a generalization PROF NOTES: The restaurant accepts all major credit cards (rule/general). The following next part is the ex...Visa is a major credit card. Therefore,the restaurant will accept the Visa credit card...this sentence starting at therefore is the application. Applying rule to example! PROF NOTES: All cats have 4 legs. Shelly has 4 legs. Therefore, Shelly is a cat. NOTE: just bc have 4 legs doesn't mean is a cat. Ex of deductive reasoning going astray bc problem with generalization. PROF NOTES: All Catholics are Republicans. John Kerry is a Catholic. Therefore, John Kerry is a Republican.

Confirmation Bias:

ANSWER: Tendency to look for evidence that confirms a hypothesis, but for evidence that would falsify the hypothesis. PROF NOTES: tendency to look for and pay attention to information that supports one's own belief. Accepting evidence that supports, but not looking for evidence that would falsify the belief or suppressing evidence that does not support. People are often aware of their tendency to support their existing pre-conceptions. (ex. Medical student/Clinical Psychology student syndrome, Fortune tellers and horoscopes, superstitions) NOTE: ex us who have taking clinical psy and may have experience clinical psy student syndrome where think have all these symptoms based on DSM but don't fall under the diagnosis.

Hindsight Bias:

ANSWER: The after-the-fact judgment that some event was very likely to happen, even though an event wasn't predicted beforehand. (I knew it all along phenomenon) PROF NOTES: Ex. Boston Red Sox won the 2004 World Series, The United States Colonies would win over the British forces in the War for Independence. (Hindsight bias provides and illusion of control andoverconfidencein making critical decision in the future.

The Availability Heuristic:

ANSWER: When people make estimates of likelihood of an event, their estimates are influenced by the ease with which relevant examples come to mind. PROF NOTES: The more we hear about something, we tend to believe it is true or more likely. PROF NOTES: The ease with which we remember examples may not perfectly correlate with actual frequency in the real world causing an overestimation of events. NOTE: We think we know answer bc been exposed to it a lot and can be false bc info get is biased and not based on trends or stats. Need to look at stats to really know if phenomena or not.

Types of Automatic Reasoning: Heuristic is?

ANSWER: ashortcut (rule of thumb) that suggests a course of action or guides problem solving, but does not always guarantee the correct solution all the time. EX: Blackjack 17, tic-tac-toe center.

Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman (1973, 1974, 1980) investigated how people?

ANSWER: predict the likelihood of future events, how they categorize events, and the types of biases involved in heuristic reasoning. NOTE: Famous for studying Bias and Heuristic

Dual Processing of Information: Many decision theories assume that people have at least?

ANSWER: two different routes (or stages) when they make assumptions or reasoning. (Stage 1): a rapid, (automatic heuristic (short-cut) based on our schemas and scripts (background knowledge). (Stage 2): a more conscious, controlledand demanding (or aware) thinking that draws on more of the evidence from the situation. NOTE: Fast thinking vs slow thinking.

Counterfactual reasoning?

ANSWER: a line of reasoning that contradicts actual facts or events in a "what may have been" set of scenarios or outcomes.

Differences between Deductive Reasoning and Inductive Reasoning:

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Redelmeier and Kahneman (1996): • One group of men were given a colonoscopy exam and reported how they felt during the entire procedure. • Another group of men also were given a colonoscopy exam, reported how they felt during the entire procedure and the probe was left in place for a short period of time. (This was still unpleasant, but the probe was not moving.) • After the procedure, the second group rated the colonoscopy exam as less unpleasant than the first group. Note: interesting that second group rated it bad, but not as bad as first group.

• Both groups had the same peak experience (uncomfortable colonoscopy exam), but the second group had a "less" uncomfortable end experience. • Over a 5 year span after the initial exam, patients in the second group were more likely to follow-up on further a colonoscopy procedure than patients in the first group. NOTE: want to make experience less comfortable (at end of experience).

Overcoming our cognitive biases and heuristics: • When people have enough time to understand the information present in the situation, cognitive biases and relying on heuristics are reduced. • When people perform tasks where they have an expertise, extensive experience, or have an adequate amount of background knowledge, cognitive biases and relying on heuristics are reduced. NOTE: More time take to make decision, more less conscious and move away from cognitive bias heuristics. When do needed research to make decision will also help reduce cog bias/heuristics. When people slow down think more consciously and less automatic and reduce the above as well.

• When people are making decisions that have serious consequences to themselves, cognitive biases and relying on heuristics are reduced. • When we identify and understand our biases, we may be able to reduce or eliminate them. (Meta-cognition) NOTE: Another example on cog/heuristics. When need to make big decision that is personal, it forces you to slow down. Oppose to simple decisions like what will decide to eat etc.

Rationalization:

• When people make a decision that is difficult to reverse, people are strongly motivated to rationalize the decision and make the best of it. When people can more easily undo a decision, they are less motivated to rationalize their choice, because they can always change their minds (Gilbert & Ebert, 2002). NOTE: More cognitive effort when you idealize all reasons for why made choice. Less cog effort when can undo more easily/change mind.