Chapter 15 Forecasting
A trend is a gradual long term, up or down movement of demand
True
_________ error is the sum of the forecast errors
cumulative
a long term wave in a demand pattern that undulates gracefully over a period of greater than a year in a
cycle
a cycle is an up or down movement in demand that repeats itself in less than 1 year
false
adjusted exponential smoothing is an exponential smoothing forecast adjusted for seasonality
false
correlation measures the strength of relationship between the x and y variables and the closer is is to 1 or -1 the greater the proof that the level of the x determines the level of y
false
data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns
false
if average forecast error is positive it indicates that the forecast is biased high
false
in the regression equation y=a+bx the slop of the equation is x
false
qualitative methods are the least common type of forecasting method for the long term strategic planning process
false
seasonal patterns are observed only during the four seasons winter spring summer and fall
false
shorter period moving averages react more slowly to recent demand changes than do longer period moving averages
false
technological forecasting helps determine the technological feasibility of new products by surveying large numbers of consumers
false
the dependent variables in linear regression is usually designed as the x variable
false
the coefficient of determination provides a measure of how the level of the independent variable in a regressoin equation explains the level of the dependent variable in the equation
true
the delphi method develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future
true
time series method assume that what has occurred in the past will continue to occur in the future
true
an ______ forecast typically encompass a period longer than one year
long range
_______ relates demand to two or more independent variables
multiple regression
unpredictable movements in demand that follow no pattern are
random variations
an _______ is an up and down repetitive movement within a trend occurring periodically
seasonal pattern
daily operations are assisted by ______ range forecasting
short
An _________ forecast encompasses the immediate future is concerned with daily activities of the firm and does not go beyond one or two months in to the future
short range
knowledgeable individuals bring their opinions to bear in ____ a qualitative method of forecasting
the delphi method
the major types of forecasting methods are ______, _______, _______
time series, regression, qualitative
________ is gradual long term upward or downward movement of demand
trend
A seasonal patter is an up and down repetitive movement within a trend occurring periodically
true
Time series is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior
true
in a weighted moving average weights must sum to 1
true
irregular variations exhibit no pattern
true
longer period moving averages react more slowly to recent demand changes than do shorter period moving averages
true
moving averages are good for stable demand with no pronounced behavioral patterns
true
qualitative methods use management judgment, expertise and opinion to make forecasts
true
random variations are movements that are not predictable and follow no pattern
true
regression is used to relate one variable to one or more variables
true
regression methods attempt to develop a mathematical relationship between the item being forecast and factors the cause it to behave the way it does
true
the basic types of forecasting methods include time series, regression and qualitative methods
true