Chapter 15 Forecasting

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A trend is a gradual long term, up or down movement of demand

True

_________ error is the sum of the forecast errors

cumulative

a long term wave in a demand pattern that undulates gracefully over a period of greater than a year in a

cycle

a cycle is an up or down movement in demand that repeats itself in less than 1 year

false

adjusted exponential smoothing is an exponential smoothing forecast adjusted for seasonality

false

correlation measures the strength of relationship between the x and y variables and the closer is is to 1 or -1 the greater the proof that the level of the x determines the level of y

false

data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns

false

if average forecast error is positive it indicates that the forecast is biased high

false

in the regression equation y=a+bx the slop of the equation is x

false

qualitative methods are the least common type of forecasting method for the long term strategic planning process

false

seasonal patterns are observed only during the four seasons winter spring summer and fall

false

shorter period moving averages react more slowly to recent demand changes than do longer period moving averages

false

technological forecasting helps determine the technological feasibility of new products by surveying large numbers of consumers

false

the dependent variables in linear regression is usually designed as the x variable

false

the coefficient of determination provides a measure of how the level of the independent variable in a regressoin equation explains the level of the dependent variable in the equation

true

the delphi method develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future

true

time series method assume that what has occurred in the past will continue to occur in the future

true

an ______ forecast typically encompass a period longer than one year

long range

_______ relates demand to two or more independent variables

multiple regression

unpredictable movements in demand that follow no pattern are

random variations

an _______ is an up and down repetitive movement within a trend occurring periodically

seasonal pattern

daily operations are assisted by ______ range forecasting

short

An _________ forecast encompasses the immediate future is concerned with daily activities of the firm and does not go beyond one or two months in to the future

short range

knowledgeable individuals bring their opinions to bear in ____ a qualitative method of forecasting

the delphi method

the major types of forecasting methods are ______, _______, _______

time series, regression, qualitative

________ is gradual long term upward or downward movement of demand

trend

A seasonal patter is an up and down repetitive movement within a trend occurring periodically

true

Time series is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior

true

in a weighted moving average weights must sum to 1

true

irregular variations exhibit no pattern

true

longer period moving averages react more slowly to recent demand changes than do shorter period moving averages

true

moving averages are good for stable demand with no pronounced behavioral patterns

true

qualitative methods use management judgment, expertise and opinion to make forecasts

true

random variations are movements that are not predictable and follow no pattern

true

regression is used to relate one variable to one or more variables

true

regression methods attempt to develop a mathematical relationship between the item being forecast and factors the cause it to behave the way it does

true

the basic types of forecasting methods include time series, regression and qualitative methods

true


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