CLB 026 - Forecasting Techniques

7. Given the following period data which of the following would be the correct mean squared error (MSE)?

13.4

R2. Given the following period data which of the following would be the correct mean squared error (MSE)?

13.4

Using the data provide in the table for method #1, which of the following would be the correct Mean Squared Error (MSE)?

13.4

Using the data provide in the table for method #2, which of the following would be the correct Mean Squared Error (MSE)?

13.4

R5. Using the data provided and assuming the demand for month 12 was actually 141 which of the following would be the correct demand forecast for month 13 with a smoothing constant (a) of 0.1?

134.6

5. Using the data provided and assuming the demand for month 12 was actually 141 which of the following would be the correct demand forecast for month 13 with a smoothing constant (a) of 0.1?

134.6 (?)

4. Using the data provided which of the following would be the correct demand forecast of the demand for Month 25 using the MA(12) method? M1 141 / M2 136 / M3 129 / M4 133 / M 5 141 / M6 136 / M7 139 / M8 132 / M9 142 / M10 136 / M11 139 / M12 140 / M13 135 / M14 142 / M15 131 / M16 132 / M17 140 / M18 137 / M19 150 / M20 140 / M21 132 / M22 137 / M23 138 / M24 141

138

R4. Using the data provided which of the following would be the correct demand forecast of the demand for Month 25 using the MA(12) method? M1 141 / M2 136 / M3 129 / M4 133 / M 5 141 / M6 136 / M7 139 / M8 132 / M9 142 / M10 136 / M11 139 / M12 140 / M13 135 / M14 142 / M15 131 / M16 132 / M17 140 / M18 137 / M19 150 / M20 140 / M21 132 / M22 137 / M23 138 / M24 141

138

Using the data provide in the table, which of the following would be the correct demand for month 13 using the weighted MA(3) forecasting method with weights of 0.5, 0.3, and 0.2, where 0.5 is the weight applied to the most recent month's demand. Month: Demand * Weight 12: 141 * 0.5 11: 138 * 0.3 10: 137 * 0.2 = 139.3

139

Using the data provided in the table, which of the following would be the correct demand forecast the demand for month 25 using the naïve (last data point forecasting method)? Month 24: Demand 141

141

Using the data provide in the table for method #2, which of the following would be the correct Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)

2.11

Using the data provide in the table for method #1, which of the following would be the correct Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)?

2.34

Using the data provided in the table, what would be the forecasted demand for quarter 13 using exponential smoothing with an a of 0.3? Assume the forecast for quarter 12 was 230.

236

Using the data provided in the table, what would be the forecasted quarter for month 13 using the MA(3) forecasting method rounded to the nearest whole number? (Average of past 3 month)

284

Using the data provided in the table, what would be the forecasted quarter for month 13 using the MA(6) forecasting method rounded to the nearest whole number? (Average of past 6 month)

296

Using the data provide in the table for method #2, which of the following would be the correct Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)?

3.0

Using the data provide in the table for method #1, which of the following would be the correct Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)?

3.4

Using the data provided in the table, which of the following would be the correct Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)?

3.46

Using the data provided in the table, which of the following would be the correct Mean Squared Error (MSE)?

37.8

Using the data provided in the table, which of the following would be the correct Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)?

5

Forecasting is defined as ______________________.

A systematic effort to anticipate future events or conditions

R3. Forecasting is defined as:

A systematic effort to anticipate future events or conditions

Which of the following is a factor to consider when making a decision of which forecasting technique to use?

All of the above (Cost, Accuracy, Lead time)

Which of the following are steps within the forecasting process?

All of the above (Determine the use of forecast, what is the objective, Select the forecasting technique(s), Gather the necessary data for the techniques chosen)

6. Which forecasting technique incorporates one or more variables that may influence the forecast?

Casual

Which forecasting technique incorporates one or more variables that may influence the forecast?

Causal

1. Which of the following is the first step in the forecasting process?

Determine the use of forecast, what is the objective ** (WRONG)

Using the data provided in the table and using MAD, MSE and MAPE as criteria. Which of the following forecasting methods is best?

Forecasting method 2

R8. Which of the following is the final step in the forecasting process?

Make the forecast and implement the results *** (WRONG)

8. Which of the following is frequently used because it expresses the average percentage error per period of the forecast in absolute tems?

Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) **(WRONG)

R7. Which of the following magnifies the large errors found in forecasts and so is useful in situations where large forecasting errors are extremely disruptive?

Mean squared error (MSE)

Using the answers from the previous six questions, Which forecasting method (#1 or #2) would you choose to forecast the demand for repair parts for next month. The answers a repeated here as a reminder.

Method 2

3. In which two forms can forecasting be presented?

Neither of these (Interval forecasts, and point forecasts)

2. Which of the following components of time series analysis is the tendency of certain patterns in the data to repeat on a measurable and consistent periodic basis?

Seasonal component

Which time-series component is the tendency of certain patterns in the data to repeat on a measurable and consistent periodic basis?

Seasonal component

Given the use of an a of 0.3 in the last question, would you say that the forecaster was more concerned with the forecast being stable or responsive?

Stable

If a forecaster decided to use the MA(6) forecast, would you say that they were more concerned with the forecast being stable or responsive?

Stable

R6. Which forecasting techniques incorporate qualitive or subjective factors into the forecasting method?

Time-Series

R9. Which of the following components of time series analysis refers to the long-term tendency of the data to be either increasing or decreasing?

Trend Component

10. True or False? Prediction intervals tend to be of more value than point estimates, as they convey information on the degree of uncertainty associated with the forecast.

True

9. True or False? Forecast error is fairly small for shorter forecast periods, but when forecast is farther in the future, the error increases significantly.

True

R1. True or False? Forecast error is fairly small for shorter forecast time periods, but when the forecast is farther in time, the error increases significantly.

True

R10. True or False? Prediction intervals tend to be of more value the point estimates, as they convey information on the degree of uncertainty associated with the forecast.

True