Climageddon Quiz #3

Cape Town one year later - How they managed the crisis

Federal gov't diverted water from agriculture to urban residents City officials instituted water tariffs and enforcement of prohibitions on heavy users Prohibited use of water for swimming pools, lawns, and non-essential uses Implemented a new water-pressure system 10% of overall municipal water use Peak usage was cut in half and overall usage cut by 30% Day Zero countdown initiated with weekly water reports on all media from the municipality City-wide water maps showing water consumption on a household level, allowing people to compare their consumption to their neighbors and the rest of the city Governmental and NGOs published water-saving techniques - people traded tips on social media Techniques used in the poor, water-strapped township areas gained traction in wealthier areas In June 2018, the region saw average rainfall for the first time in four years Reservoirs are 50% full and desalination plants are on line

Extreme Ice Survey

Founded in 2007 by James Balog, the Extreme Ice Survey (EIS) is an innovative, long-term photography project that merges art and science to give a "visual voice" to the planet's changing ecosystems. EIS imagery preserves a visual legacy, providing a unique baseline—useful in years, decades and even centuries to come—for revealing how climate change and other human activity impacts the planet. EIS installed time-lapse cameras at remote sites in Greenland, Iceland, Nepal, Alaska, Antarctica, Austria, and the Rocky Mountains and conducts episodic repeat photography in Iceland, Canada, the French and Swiss Alps, and Bolivia; and has been the subject of an Emmy® award-winning feature documentary, Chasing Ice, a NOVA/PBS documentary, two books, and numerous magazine and newspaper features. EIS has been alerting the world about ice and climate change via appearances before Washington policymakers, a touring exhibition, displays in public venues (including Denver International Airport, Atlanta Hartsfield-Jackson Airport and O'Hare International Airport) and multimedia presentations at corporate, scientific, and global policy conferences

U.S. 2012 Billion-dollar weather and climate disasters

11 events, 377 deaths, cost $155.6 billion

Global Impact of Climate Change on Human Health

Air pollution - asthma, cardiovascular disease Water and feed supple impacts - malnutrition, diarrheal disease Extreme Heat - Heat-related illness and death, cardiovascular failure Severe Weather - Injuries, fatalities, mental health impacts

Geological Time

Earth Forms - 4.6 billion years ago Archean/Proterozoic - 2.5 billion Paleozoic Mesozoic Cenozoic Holocene - 10,000 years ago

Frequently flooded areas of the U.S.

Iowa, texas, north east states

Lecture 11 James Balog

James Balog is a wildlife and nature photographer committed to alerting the world about climate change He visited the University of Iowa in 2014 and gave several presentations of his work.

Sean Gallagher

Sean Gallagher is a National Geographic Creative photographer and filmmaker. He has been based in Asia for over a decade, where he has been documenting that continent's environmental, social, and cultural issues for some of the world's leading news outlets, including National Geographic News, the BBC, the Wall Street Journal, and the Guardian. Sean visited the University of Iowa in 2017 as part of the Pulitzer Center Campus Consortium - a new collaboration between our College of Public Health, the UI School of Journalism and Mass Communication, and the Pulitzer Center on Crisis Communication. Sean discussed his experiences documenting the lives of individuals and communities as they confront environmental threats such as desertification, deforestation, pollution, species extinction and climate change.

Location vs. # Tree Species

Travel from the north pole south 500 miles--> no trees Travel another 250 miles--> 1 Canada's boreal forest of 1 billion acres--> 20 US northeastern states--> 55 North Carolina--> 250 Manu mountain in the Andes--> 1035

Chikungunya virus disease - no u.s. cases prior to 2013

in 2014: 2492 cases imported 11 locally acquired

Vector-borne Infectious Diseases

blacklegged tick lyme disease lyme disease culex - west nile virus lone star tick - ehrlichiosis chikungunya disease - aedes mosquito zika virus - aedes aegypti

Climatological Variables Effect the Risk of Violence

climatological variables effect the risk of violence

Coral Reefs: Extreme Biodiversity

corals like it either warm or cold, but not too hot or acidic corals can be found in both warm and cold environments, but the highly diverse coral reefs like those pictured on the previous page are exclusively found in warm waters. also shown is the effect of ocean acidification by the year 2100, with the smallest increases in acidity in light blue and the largest in dark blue

A Warmer Atmosphere Holds More Moisture

the amount of rain or snow that comes in very heavy precipitation events has increased significantly

The Sixth Extiction

• "Anthropocene" epoch, late 20th to 21st century, how many species will be lost • Anthropocene is a term coined by Dutch chemist, Paul Crutzen, a Nobel Prize winner for the discovery of stratospheric ozone-depleting compounds

Hurricane Florence

• 31 Aug to 19 Sept 2018 • Deaths 48 (29 direct, 19 indirect) • Barometric pressure - 939 mBar • Highest winds - 140 mph • Cost estimate - $38 billion (may rise)

Ecosystem

• An interdependent community of plants, animals and microscopic organisms, and their physical environment, interacting to form a complex whole and food webs. • Ecosystems are delineated by climates: e.g. tropical rain forests near the equator, desserts in the subtropics and tundra ecosystems near the poles. • Equatorial mountain ecosystems change with elevation and side of the mountain. • Latitudinal diversity gradient.

The climate is changing much faster than species can adapt

• Anthropogenic climate change is outpacing evolution

Biodiversity

• Biodiversity, a contraction of "biological diversity," meaning the variety and variability of life on Earth. • A measure of the variety of organisms present in different ecosystems. • Refers to genetic variation, ecosystem variation, or species variation (number of species) within an area (or the entire planet). • Biodiversity is not distributed evenly on Earth Terrestrial biodiversity tends to be greater near the equator, which seems to be the result of the warm climate and high rate of photosynthesis. • Marine biodiversity tends to be highest along coasts in the Western Pacific, where sea surface temperature is highest and in the mid-latitudinal band in all oceans. • Biodiversity generally tends to cluster in hotspots, and has been increasing through time, but will be likely to slow in the future

what's in flood water

• Dead animals • Mud • Bad chemicals • Raw sewage (bacteria in that) • Wet = mold

Water Quality

• Degraded water quality is another direct and immediate problem associated with climate change. • As the summer's are hotter, the surface water is hot o The water that's cold stays deep down, so there is no mixing of hot and cold o Therefore, the top stays super-hot and species that live up there can't live as long • In farming states like Iowa, higher water temperatures and decreased mixing have combined with high nutrient levels to create harmful algal blooms that make the water unsuitable for human and animal consumption and for recreation as evidenced by more frequent beach closures at Iowa lakes. • Algal blooms can produce crisis conditions as evidenced in Toledo, Ohio in 2014, where a half-million people were left without safe water for drinking or bathing. o Looks like algae but it's bacteria

Global Disasters 1900 - 2011

• Disasters are increasing in more recent years • Volcanoes, dry movements, and earthquakes aren't related to climate change are aren't increasing o Earthquakes could have reporting bias, in the past wouldn't report as much • However, the others are from humans (climate change) and are increasing floods and storms • Much more people now, doubling of population, more people and infrastructure are in harms way,

Water Quantity

• Drought stricken areas and desertification produce severe water shortages • This can lead to conflict and even wars • "The world is at war over water. Goldman Sachs describes it as "the petroleum of the next century". Disputes over water tend to start small and local - for instance, with the sort of protests that drought-stricken São Paolo has experienced this year. • But minor civil unrest can quickly mushroom, as the bonds of civilization snap. • It is often forgotten that the revolution against Syrian president Bashar al-Assad began this way, when youths of the southern Syrian town of Daraa, angry at the local governor's corrupt allocation of scarce reservoir water, were caught spraying anti-establishment graffiti. • Their arrest and torture was the final straw for the tribes from which the youths came. It was a very similar story in Yemen, whose revolution began in 2011 in Taiz, the most water stressed city in that country." • James Fergusson 4/24/15 Newsweek Magazine

The Five Major Extinction Events

• End Ordovician, 444 million years ago, 86% of species lost • Late Devonian, 375 million years ago, 75% of species lost • End Permian, 251 million years ago, 96% of species lost • End Triassic, 200 million years ago, 80% of species lost • End Cretaceous, 66 million years ago, 76% of species lost

Issues bearing on Mental Health

• Extreme weather events produce: o Physical and mental stress form loss of home, business, or livelihood o Mental stress of ill health or death of loved ones o Increased ambient temperatures are associated with more aggressive and violence behaviors • Hsiang et al. Science 341:1235367, 13 Sept. 2013. o "Each 1 standard deviation change in climate toward warmer temperatures or more extreme rainfall increases the frequency of interpersonal violence by 4% and intergroup conflict by 14% (median estimates)."

How long does it take to recover from mass extinctions?

• First extinction - end Ordovician ‐ 16 million years • Third extinction - end Permian - 100 million years • How long will it take for the Sixth extinction? o Depends upon how severely we change the climate

Climate Change and Mental Health

• Flooding on Missouri River effected a lot of small towns o Once they lose their one school, or grocery store, etc the town could disappear o Their isn't a population base to sustain the town o Farmers lost their crops and their stored crops from the previous year o Being forced out of your home, relocating --> factors of mental health challenges • Our changing climate's influence on mental health is perhaps less obvious, although the stress caused by climate-related physical displacement and loss of livelihood due to flood or drought is well established. • Other mental health problems are growing concerns. For example, research since the 1980s has associated higher temperatures with increased aggression and violence and these are now being linked to climate change.

There is No Doubt that the Earth is Warming

• Globally, last 5 years warmest years on record. o June 2019 was the warmest June on record. o July 2019 was the warmest month on record. • June and July 2019 heat waves in Europe. • June 28, 2019 national all-time record of 46.0 °C (114.8 °F) was recorded in Vérargues, France. • July 25, 2019 brought the peak of a deadly heat wave in Europe. o Paris, 42.6°C (108.7°F), well above record of 40.4°C (104.7°F) o 1,435 heat-related deaths in France. o Few homes or office buildings are equipped with AC.

Climate Change impacts on Respiratory Health

• Higher humidities and extreme precipitation events increase mold exposures and induce respiratory diseases • New allergenic plants, higher pollen yields and an extended growing period increase the burden of allergy and asthma • Increased urban heating leads to higher concentrations of fine particulate matter and ground level ozone increasing lung and heart disease

2003 European Heat Wave

• Hottest summer on record in Europe since at least 1540 • Eight straight days with temperatures >40 °C (104 °F) in France in early August 2003 • Estimated 14,802 pre‐mature deaths in France (highest rate among elderly) o Many elderly people died • Few homes equipped with air conditioning and temperatures remained at record highs even at night so stone buildings got hot • Poor knowledge on heat stress and little disaster planning • Worst heat extremes came while many people were away on holiday including medical providers and government officials • Another serious heat wave in 2006 was much less deadly due to PH changes made after 2003 disaster.

First a heatwave in Siberia, then came Anthrax

• In 2010 temperatures soared in western Russia's Yamal tundra. Across Siberia, some provinces warmed an additional 10°F beyond normal. • In the fields, large bubbles of vegetation appeared above the melting permafrost — strange pockets of methane or, more likely, water. • Record fires blazed through dry Russian grassland. • In the early 20th century, there were repeated anthrax outbreaks in Siberia. More than a million reindeer died. Now there are about 7,000 burial grounds with infected carcasses scattered across northern Russia. • In one of the more unusual symptoms of unseasonable warmth, long-dormant bacteria appear to be active. For the first time since 1941, anthrax struck western Siberia. • Thirteen Yamal nomads were hospitalized, including four children. • Some 1,500 reindeer died in a matter of weeks. • The outbreak was thought to stem from a reindeer carcass that died in the plague 75 years ago. As the old flesh thawed, the bacteria once again became active. • The disease ravaged reindeer herds, prompting the relocation of dozens of the indigenous Nenet community. Herders faced a quarantine that lasted 2 months.

Coral Reefs

• In one SCUBA dive in Bonaire I see more species of animals than I can see in a lifetime of hiking in Iowa. • Coral reefs provide food for 100s of millions of people, barrier against hurricanes, typhoons and tsunamis and significant revenue from tourism. • NOAA estimates 20% of coral reefs are already damaged and 50% are in critical condition and in danger of collapse. • Damage from siltation, pollutant runoff, fuel spills, acidification, warming. Coral bleaching: loss of algae the live symbiotically with the coral. • CO2 in water forms carbonic acid H2CO3 which at high concentration dissolves carbonate ions. Carbonate is the building block of coral. • Corals build the architecture of the ecosystem - when they go the ecosystem collapses. (Ken Caldeira) • Between 1 and 9 million species spend at least a part of their lives on coral reefs. (Kolbert)

Moscow

• July 2010 mean temperature 14°F above normal - reaching 104°F • Highest temperatures in 130 years of recorded history • $300 B crop losses - 40 million metric tons of wheat lost • Massive wildfires • PM10 and ozone in Moscow 10- fold above normal o Air pollution • 350 excess deaths per day due to air pollution and heat stress • 11,000 excess deaths overall • Cause of this was a drought, climate change was cause of drought

Cape Town, South Africa - Day Zero: May 11, 2018 (now extended)

• Late last year, the South African government announced "Day Zero" - the moment when reservoirs would be so low they would turn off the taps. • Day Zero = 4 M Cape Townians will have to collect water rations at communal water collection points: less than 7 gal (25 L)/person/day. • Cape Town's water comes entirely from rainfall, captured in 6 reservoirs. The city is in a 3-yr drought, reservoirs are at a fifth of their capacity. • This apocalyptic notion prompted water stockpiling and panic, caused a drop in tourism bookings, and raised the spectre of civil unrest. • After years of trying to convince residents to conserve, the aggressive campaign jolted people into action. Water use is restricted to 50 L/person/day (California is 321L/p/d). • Households that exceed the limit face hefty fines, or having a meter installed in their home that shuts off their water once they go over. • "The day zero campaign made us all think twice about water," says Sue Fox. "We'll never, ever, ever take water for granted again." • New desalination plants have come on-line to extend Day Zero

Pakistan

• May 26, 2010 Temperature hits 128°F in Moenjodaro melting Himalaya glaciers • July 22, 2010 the already swollen Indus River floods with torrential rains in the mountains • 20 M affected, 8.5 M with urgent needs, 2 M homes destroyed, 2000 dead

Disasters are not evenly distributed

• Midwest is flooding, droughts • South is hurricanes and flooding, tropical storms

Total rainfall amounts across Iowa from September 21-25th, 2016

• Multiple storms tracked across the area on the night of September 22 and led to flash flooding. Flash flooding befell areas under the heaviest rainfall as some places received over 5 to 10 inches in a few hours! Shell Rock River, highest on record - Cedar River, second highest on record

Billion Dollar Disasters - US in adjusted dollars by CPI

• Over the last 40 years (1980 - 2019) the years with 10 or more Billion $ Disasters • 1998, 2008, 2011, 2012, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019

Billion Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters 1980 - June 2018

• Overall losses in 2017, including uninsured damage, came to $330 billion • https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/ The U.S. has sustained 233 weather and climate disasters since 1980 where overall damages/costs reached or exceeded $1 billion (including CPI adjustment to 2018). • The total cost of these 233 events exceeds $1.5 trillion. • We can't continue to rebuild in the same way after every disaster o Maybe there are places we need to abandon

Medically valuable plants and fungi

• Papaver somniferum - opium and opioids • Erythroxylum coca - cocaine ‐ stimulant • Salix ‐ willow bark - salicylic acid - aspirin • Catha edulis (khat, qat) ‐ cathinone, an amphetamine‐like stimulant • Coffea Arabica - coffee - caffeine • Camellia sinensis - tea - caffeine • Amanita muscaria - Muscimol - hallucinogen • Solanaceae - nightshades‐ scopolamine, atropine, nicotine, capsaicin

Strategies for dealing with flooding

• Protection through engineering o Dikes, flood walls, barrier islands o Restore wetlands and reduce tiling • Accommodation of inundation o Land areas designed to be flooded • Retreat o Move to higher ground

More Extreme Rain and Heat Events

• The Midwest has experienced higher humidities and increased nighttime temperatures making it harder to recover from daytime heat stress. • Repeated heavy rain events increase exposures to toxic chemicals and raw sewage mobilized by flood waters.

Golden Toad

• The golden toad was last seen in 1989 in the Costa Rican cloud forest of Monteverde. • Its disappearance was the first extinction to be blamed on anthropogenic global warming. • As humans pumped carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, Costa Rican rainforests became hotter and dryer beginning in the mid-1980s. • These conditions made the toad vulnerable to the chytrid fungus, which is thought to thrive in warmer, drier climes. • Chytridiomycosis is a fatal skin disease that eventually causes convulsions, skin loss, and death in amphibians. • Although amphibian populations all over the region declined, the golden toad's limited habitat and small population made it especially vulnerable.

Cyanobacteria (Microcystis)

• Toledo, Ohio • 500,000 people without water for drinking, cooking or bathing August 2-4, 2014 o Dogs die from swimming in these waters o Nitrogen and phosphorous farming fertilizers and chemical runoffs • Cyanobacteria only hurts you if Microcystis is produced

Extreme events (Heat Waves, Fires, Flooding, Storms)

• Trauma - posttraumatic stress disorder • Displacement (environmental refugee) - anxiety, depression, social disengagement • Impaired livelihood - anxiety, depression, suicide • Empirical studies indicate that climatological variables have a large effect on the risk of violence or instability in the modern world. (A to L) • Examples from studies of modern data that identify the causal effect of climate variables on human conflict.

Koeppen Climate Zones and Subzones

• Tropical • Dry • Temperate • Continental • Polar

What about Malaria?

• Vector (mosquito) control is a cornerstone of malaria prevention o We don't have good prevention strategy for it yet o Goes into liver and circulates through the blood

Emerging Infectious Diseases

• We are concerned about new infectious diseases arising as the organisms that carry them move north due to rising temperatures. • We are now seeing new species of mosquitos and ticks capable of transmitting diseases such as Dengue Fever and Ehrlichiosis. • With increasing temperatures, more rainfall, and longer summers, these mosquitos and ticks can live longer and expand their range.