FM 245: Fashion Forecasting Midterm

steps to forecasting when it comes to analyzing and predicting using market and sales research

- identify signals patterns and emerging ideas - rank information and edit less significant data - offer solutions through customized forecast or wide-ranging examples - predict and provide scenerios

Examples of trickle up

-Camo came from military -Trench coat came from english spies -Vans from skaters -sugar hill gang with adidas superstars

Example of trickle across theory

-Denim jeans from old navy / bergdorf designer -Gucci boots / steve madden dupes -payless / steve madden/ prada

What are the theories of Fashion adoption

-Trickle down -Trickle across - Trickle up

trickle up theory

-came later when we started to adopt things from other places COUNTERCULTURE MOVEMENTS - people who rebelled/ these are the punks in London MOST POPULAR - now adopted by street looks, looks became popular within a specific social group then move into mainstream fashion, newest theory of fashion adoption, the pace of adoption is difficult to determine

trickle down theory

-started in the 1700-1800 when artistrcatic people were able THE HAVES AND THE HAVE NOTS - the haves passed their clothing down to their servants and moved on to the next thing / because they had the next thing coming was this way until the 1900s

Pendulum Swing

-the movement of fashion between extremes JEANS: -Worn at or near the natural waistline -Jeans began to be worn lower and lower -Eventually jeans could not get any lower -New trend of "high waist" pants emerged - (the wedgie by levis)

Fashion forecasting SERVICES

1. Fashion snoops 2. Donegar 3. Trend Union 4. WGSN 5. Pantone

The fashion cycle (photo)

1. introduction 2. rise 3. culmination 4. decline 5. obsolescence

how to start trend research

1. know the customer 2. make trend research a daily activity 3. customer filter 4. read customer reviews 5. think like an influencer not a follower

STEPS/process in developing a forecast

1. researching 2. editing 3. interpreting and analyzing 4. predicting 5. communicating (through the forecast)

five ideas that work together to produce an overall trend per season

1. theme 2. color 3. textiles and fabrics 4. silhouettes 5. demographics and target market

five elements of business success

1. time - MOST IMPORTANT 2. Product 3. Pace 4. Quantities 5. Customer

identify the way we as forecasters find information, other than fashion forecasting websites?

1.Streetsyle 2. social media 3. past history 4. Museum exhibitions 5. Influencers 6. Celebreties

PARTS of a fashion forecast/ example of a typical forecast

ALL HAVE FORECASTING WITHIN THEM 1. theme 2.color 3. textiles 4. silhouette/ look

examples of trickle down

Bodice Blazer - white color aristocrats would have it made for them Corset

Fad

Comes and goes -A look that swiftly becomes popular is widely accepted and then rapidly disappears -Has prevalent feature or detail -Often appear in the accessory market EX silly bands

Third Step of Fashion Cycle

Culmination -Height of popularity and use -Accepted through multiple markets -Mass production with new design details colors and innovators -Possibility for the style to become a classic (but rare) -Potential for volume in mass market

Fourth Step of Fashion Cycle

Decline -Repetition of looks -Decline in interest and decrease in demand -Market is saturated fashion product -Price resistance by consumer -Retailers mark down merchandise and offer price incentives Production slows

whats the first thing you do when you start your line for the season?

Fashion forecast

long term forecasting

MACRO - WE NOW JUST FORECAST FAST DUE TO FAST FASHION BEING AROUND WE FORECAST ALL THE TIME - with technology and seeing what the rest of the world is doing there is no way we can wait 5-10 years in advance to start talking about something - trends are predicted at least a year to two years in advance - projecting social and cultural shifts, technology, population trends, demographic movement, and the developments in consumer behavior - identifies early signs of change - COVID EX - examine whats possible

classic styles

Never goes/ remains in fashion for a long time -Simple design that satisfies basic needs -No exaggerated details or trims -Timeless silhouette -LBD, pearls, chanel, single sole pump (almond toe/2' heel) -Best sellers every season

Fifth Step of Fashion Cycle

Obsolescence -Lack of interest and no interest in product -Consumer is reluctant to buy -No retail potential at any price

Fashion Forecasting

Practice of predicting upcoming trends based on past and present style (analyze sales)

Second Step of Fashion Cycle

Rise -Styles are accepted by more people / wider recognition -Planning is initiated for mass market -Styles are copied by manufacturers -Price drops, quantity increase, sales increase

on-line fashion forecasting websites

SAME AS SERVICES 1. WGSN 2. Fashion Snoops 3. Pantone 4. Donegar 5. Trend Union

Short Term Forecasting

SHORT TERM -focuses on current events and pop culture - 6 months to a year and a half

why do we look at past sales?

Set you up for future sales

example of a style

a highschool clique

macro trend

a large scale continuous shift in consumer interest / big picture season after season

street style

a term given to the fashions that originated amount the young who congregated in groups on the street./ based on individualism rather than focusing solely on current trends

Trend report

account of something that already exists of had happened / no longer forecasting it or predicting it

Fashion forecasters

big business in the fashion industry where companies sell trend information- their focus is to SELL

what do classics do in regards to the fashion cycle?

classics go up and stay up, but all other trends follow the cycle

market research firms

conduct studies and provide information that can benefit forecasters, analyze, and project marketing opportunities HELP FORECASTERS - where, when, why, and how customers are buying - reports detailing product and market trends - what is being purchased

Style

distinctive appearance and combination of unique features that creates a look that is acceptable at the time by a majority of a group A LOOK

trickle across theory

everyone has it at the same time / youngest theory- acknowledge all levels / they originate by the design moving across the groups / DESIGNER BRIDGE MODERATOR

in house research

fashion offices, data sharing, sales strategy, observation, focus groups, surveys, viral marketing, social media, blogs

Trend

first signal of change in general direction or movement - START SLOW--> GO UP--> GO DOWN

Fashion

habits, manner, and dress of a period or group WHAT IS HAPPENING

Trend sites

happens already, knowledge to everyone 1. Instyle 2. refinery 29 3. vogue 4. cosmo 5. Instagram

First Step of Fashion Cycle

introduction -fashion mood or idea appears - an innovator (could be a designer or influencer) acknowledges the idea in new fashion - innovators develop concepts -the style is seen as emerging trend - designer introduces fresh ideas, style, colors, fabrication, or details - fashion leaders and influencers experiment with new styles

Speed of fashion in the fashion cycle

introduction and rise stage = faster middle stages = slows obsolescence stage =ends

Seasonal forecasting

is more specific- spring/summer fall/winter, predicted 12-18 months in advance.

taste

prevailing opinion of what is or not appropriate for a particular occasion

list of demographics and customer segments (influences)

sociological, physiological, Global economics, politics, science and technology, environmental, unexpected events, cultural, analyzing past data

Zeitgeist

the defining spirit or mood of a particular period of history as shown by the ideas and beliefs of the time

How demographics and customer segments affect fashion forecasting

they are the segment of population who may adopt new products and ideas at a specific time (DONT TARGET UNLESS YOU KNOW WILL BUY) customer segments are groups of consumers who share demographic, economic, sociological, and psychological characteristics

micro trend

very small specific trend/ dont make a huge impact to change how everyone dresses