FM 245: Fashion Forecasting Midterm
steps to forecasting when it comes to analyzing and predicting using market and sales research
- identify signals patterns and emerging ideas - rank information and edit less significant data - offer solutions through customized forecast or wide-ranging examples - predict and provide scenerios
Examples of trickle up
-Camo came from military -Trench coat came from english spies -Vans from skaters -sugar hill gang with adidas superstars
Example of trickle across theory
-Denim jeans from old navy / bergdorf designer -Gucci boots / steve madden dupes -payless / steve madden/ prada
What are the theories of Fashion adoption
-Trickle down -Trickle across - Trickle up
trickle up theory
-came later when we started to adopt things from other places COUNTERCULTURE MOVEMENTS - people who rebelled/ these are the punks in London MOST POPULAR - now adopted by street looks, looks became popular within a specific social group then move into mainstream fashion, newest theory of fashion adoption, the pace of adoption is difficult to determine
trickle down theory
-started in the 1700-1800 when artistrcatic people were able THE HAVES AND THE HAVE NOTS - the haves passed their clothing down to their servants and moved on to the next thing / because they had the next thing coming was this way until the 1900s
Pendulum Swing
-the movement of fashion between extremes JEANS: -Worn at or near the natural waistline -Jeans began to be worn lower and lower -Eventually jeans could not get any lower -New trend of "high waist" pants emerged - (the wedgie by levis)
Fashion forecasting SERVICES
1. Fashion snoops 2. Donegar 3. Trend Union 4. WGSN 5. Pantone
The fashion cycle (photo)
1. introduction 2. rise 3. culmination 4. decline 5. obsolescence
how to start trend research
1. know the customer 2. make trend research a daily activity 3. customer filter 4. read customer reviews 5. think like an influencer not a follower
STEPS/process in developing a forecast
1. researching 2. editing 3. interpreting and analyzing 4. predicting 5. communicating (through the forecast)
five ideas that work together to produce an overall trend per season
1. theme 2. color 3. textiles and fabrics 4. silhouettes 5. demographics and target market
five elements of business success
1. time - MOST IMPORTANT 2. Product 3. Pace 4. Quantities 5. Customer
identify the way we as forecasters find information, other than fashion forecasting websites?
1.Streetsyle 2. social media 3. past history 4. Museum exhibitions 5. Influencers 6. Celebreties
PARTS of a fashion forecast/ example of a typical forecast
ALL HAVE FORECASTING WITHIN THEM 1. theme 2.color 3. textiles 4. silhouette/ look
examples of trickle down
Bodice Blazer - white color aristocrats would have it made for them Corset
Fad
Comes and goes -A look that swiftly becomes popular is widely accepted and then rapidly disappears -Has prevalent feature or detail -Often appear in the accessory market EX silly bands
Third Step of Fashion Cycle
Culmination -Height of popularity and use -Accepted through multiple markets -Mass production with new design details colors and innovators -Possibility for the style to become a classic (but rare) -Potential for volume in mass market
Fourth Step of Fashion Cycle
Decline -Repetition of looks -Decline in interest and decrease in demand -Market is saturated fashion product -Price resistance by consumer -Retailers mark down merchandise and offer price incentives Production slows
whats the first thing you do when you start your line for the season?
Fashion forecast
long term forecasting
MACRO - WE NOW JUST FORECAST FAST DUE TO FAST FASHION BEING AROUND WE FORECAST ALL THE TIME - with technology and seeing what the rest of the world is doing there is no way we can wait 5-10 years in advance to start talking about something - trends are predicted at least a year to two years in advance - projecting social and cultural shifts, technology, population trends, demographic movement, and the developments in consumer behavior - identifies early signs of change - COVID EX - examine whats possible
classic styles
Never goes/ remains in fashion for a long time -Simple design that satisfies basic needs -No exaggerated details or trims -Timeless silhouette -LBD, pearls, chanel, single sole pump (almond toe/2' heel) -Best sellers every season
Fifth Step of Fashion Cycle
Obsolescence -Lack of interest and no interest in product -Consumer is reluctant to buy -No retail potential at any price
Fashion Forecasting
Practice of predicting upcoming trends based on past and present style (analyze sales)
Second Step of Fashion Cycle
Rise -Styles are accepted by more people / wider recognition -Planning is initiated for mass market -Styles are copied by manufacturers -Price drops, quantity increase, sales increase
on-line fashion forecasting websites
SAME AS SERVICES 1. WGSN 2. Fashion Snoops 3. Pantone 4. Donegar 5. Trend Union
Short Term Forecasting
SHORT TERM -focuses on current events and pop culture - 6 months to a year and a half
why do we look at past sales?
Set you up for future sales
example of a style
a highschool clique
macro trend
a large scale continuous shift in consumer interest / big picture season after season
street style
a term given to the fashions that originated amount the young who congregated in groups on the street./ based on individualism rather than focusing solely on current trends
Trend report
account of something that already exists of had happened / no longer forecasting it or predicting it
Fashion forecasters
big business in the fashion industry where companies sell trend information- their focus is to SELL
what do classics do in regards to the fashion cycle?
classics go up and stay up, but all other trends follow the cycle
market research firms
conduct studies and provide information that can benefit forecasters, analyze, and project marketing opportunities HELP FORECASTERS - where, when, why, and how customers are buying - reports detailing product and market trends - what is being purchased
Style
distinctive appearance and combination of unique features that creates a look that is acceptable at the time by a majority of a group A LOOK
trickle across theory
everyone has it at the same time / youngest theory- acknowledge all levels / they originate by the design moving across the groups / DESIGNER BRIDGE MODERATOR
in house research
fashion offices, data sharing, sales strategy, observation, focus groups, surveys, viral marketing, social media, blogs
Trend
first signal of change in general direction or movement - START SLOW--> GO UP--> GO DOWN
Fashion
habits, manner, and dress of a period or group WHAT IS HAPPENING
Trend sites
happens already, knowledge to everyone 1. Instyle 2. refinery 29 3. vogue 4. cosmo 5. Instagram
First Step of Fashion Cycle
introduction -fashion mood or idea appears - an innovator (could be a designer or influencer) acknowledges the idea in new fashion - innovators develop concepts -the style is seen as emerging trend - designer introduces fresh ideas, style, colors, fabrication, or details - fashion leaders and influencers experiment with new styles
Speed of fashion in the fashion cycle
introduction and rise stage = faster middle stages = slows obsolescence stage =ends
Seasonal forecasting
is more specific- spring/summer fall/winter, predicted 12-18 months in advance.
taste
prevailing opinion of what is or not appropriate for a particular occasion
list of demographics and customer segments (influences)
sociological, physiological, Global economics, politics, science and technology, environmental, unexpected events, cultural, analyzing past data
Zeitgeist
the defining spirit or mood of a particular period of history as shown by the ideas and beliefs of the time
How demographics and customer segments affect fashion forecasting
they are the segment of population who may adopt new products and ideas at a specific time (DONT TARGET UNLESS YOU KNOW WILL BUY) customer segments are groups of consumers who share demographic, economic, sociological, and psychological characteristics
micro trend
very small specific trend/ dont make a huge impact to change how everyone dresses