L10 - The Future
Obsolescence based on Wages
Researchers paint a mixed picture. But the emphasis has turned. We cannot & should not ask "what can machines not do?" They can do just about anything. Rather, we should ask ourselves "what should or must humans do?"
Know the Great Decoupling. (Slides 16-17)
The Great Decoupling: • Labor productivity, real GDP per-capita, private employment & median family income traditional trended together. • Job creation has been on the decline since 1980. • In the mid-1980s, median income started to trail. • In about 2000, private employment started to lag. • Percentage of households earning within 50% of median income has also started to trail. • 2008-2009 Great Recession had a large impact.
Millennials (Gen Y)
• Born between 1980 and 1999. • 73 million strong (2013). •Increasingly diverse. - 43% are something other than "Non-Hispanic White" - 11% have at least one immigrant parent. • The younger have never known a world without the Internet. • Impacted by the Great Recession. • Have expectations around technology in the workplace. • Strong entrepreneurial spirit. • Want to work for an employer who "makes a difference". • Value work-life balance, and flexibility.
Clear the Runway for the New Comers!
Generation Z: - Born between 2000 and 2016. Generation Alpha: - Born between 2010 and 2025 - The first demographically non-white generation! - 65% of today's school children will be employed in jobs [roles] that don't exist yet.
The 4th Industrial Revolution
Industrial Revolutions: 1760s - 1840s The steam engine Were able to take simple tasks and autmate them to a machine EX: sewing machine to make rugs Take a task that needs low education/skill and automate it 1890s - 1920s Moved from farms to cities Because that's where the jobs were and making an okay living Moving parts and had factory workers The start of engineering 1960s - 1990s Medium skill tasks Office & administrative tasks were automotive The computer age 2010s - ? Technology is evolving itself now We don't know where it's going to go The roles of machines are fundamentally different
Obolesence
Two realms of impact we can evaluate are those of "obsolescence" and "reliance". "Most jobs (95%) won't be jeopardized over the next five years." - McKinsey Global Institute (November 2015) "We are approaching a time when machines will be able to outperform humans at almost any task...if machines are capable of doing almost any work humans can do, what will humans do?" - Dr. Moshe Vardi, Rice University (February 2016) "5 million jobs will be lost to automation by 2020." - The Future of Jobs, World Economic Forum (2016)
What is Moore's Law? (Slide 6)
We have broken Moore's Law - technology use to double each year & would become cheaper - but now with AI and new technology, it is exponentially growing Gordon E. Moore, co-founder of Intel. Number of transistors (and therefore computing power & capability) double every 18-24 months. Today, researchers are finding that this trend may be increasing. Either way, technological change is rapid and often exceeds our ability to keep up with it.
CEOs Obsolescence
We're inclined to believe that only low-wage, highly-manual jobs can be automated. But surprise! As much as 20% of a CEO's daily job can be automated. Most of this falls into the realm of data analysis and trend identification. 25% of a CEOs job can be automated *any job at some level can be automated Obsolescence: We need to be careful because our job could become automated *Americans use their phones 5 hours a day Touch it 200 times a day