POL 202 chapter 3

The bargaining model of war helps us to understand the conditions that might lead a state to threaten war. If a state is already getting from ________________________ costs of war at least as much as it expects to get through war, then it generally cannot gain by making a threat.

the status quo

Even when a bargain exists that both sides would prefer to war, several types of problems can lead to war. The Prisoner's Dilemma illustrates one of these problems. Which one?

commitment problem

Israel and Iran are engaged in a struggle for control of the Middle East. Israel currently has nuclear weapons, but Iran is developing them. Israel decides to bomb Iranian nuclear sites before Iran can complete a nuclear weapon.commitment problem

commitment problem

Japan and China both claim territory in the East China Sea. Because China's larger economy will allow it to increase its military spending in the future, Japan decides to build up its naval presence around the islands now to deter China.

commitment problem

Over the past seventy years, territory has declined and trade has increased as a source of national wealth. Because terms of trade are harder to divide than territory, conflicts and wars among states are increasing.

false

Russia and Japan fought over control of Manchuria and Korea. Believing Japan's military to be weaker than its own, Russia rejected Japan's proposal to divide the territories and lost the war.

incomplete information

The United States invaded Vietnam to prevent South Vietnam from being unified under the North's communist regime. The United States lost the war by underestimating North Vietnam's willingness to fight.

incomplete information

After King Henry III died, Henry of Navarre and Isabella of Spain both claimed the French throne. Spain invaded France in an attempt to install Isabella.

indivisibility

In 1967, Egypt amassed troops on the Israeli border and imposed a blockade. Israeli then attacked the Egyptian air force.

preemptive war

Two states, Q and R, are in conflict over R's policy of attacking Q's ships in neutral waters. Q is making threats to R in an attempt to compel R to stop this behavior. In the following threat scenarios, which threats are more credible and which are less credible?

More: -Q moves a fleet of 10 battleships to R's coast -Q's leader gives its battleship captains the authority to attack if they perceive a threat on Q's ships. -At a speech to the UN General Assembly, Q demands that R halt all attacks on Q's ships. Less: -Q increases military spending. -Q's leader tells its battleship captains that the decision to launch an attack must come directly from the leader's office. -Q sends a message through its ambassador to R's leader demanding R halt all attacks on Q's ships.

Imagine that two states, state C and state D, are bargaining over who rightfully controls a piece of territory between the two countries. The current arrangement is that state C and state D both control 50 percent. If state C and state D fight, state C would win 70 percent. However, 30 percent would be destroyed in the conflict. Order the following possible outcomes for state C from most preferred to least preferred.

A bargained settlement that gives state C 60%, status quo, A bargained settlement that gives state C 45%, State C's cost of war, A bargained settlement that gives state C 20%

Sort the following scenarios into examples of compellence or deterrence.

Compellence: -United States to Iraq: Saddam Hussein has 24 hours to step down as president or we'll invade. -United States to USSR: Remove your missiles from Cuba or we'll invade. Deterrence: -United States to Syria: If you use chemical weapons, we'll attack. -United States to USSR: If you install missiles in Cuba, we'll invade. -France to Germany: Respect Poland's borders or we'll declare war.

In 1950, communist North Korea invaded noncommunist South Korea. The United States joined South Korea to repel the attack. The United States was successful, and North Korea retreated to its side of the 38th parallel. At this point, China, which was also communist, told the United States that it would enter the war in support of North Korea if the United States advanced past the 38th parallel. The United States did not believe China; U.S. troops advanced, China entered the war, and in 1953 the prewar status quo was returned in which the Korean peninsula was divided between North and South at the 38th parallel.Which options among the following would have made China's threat more credible?

Correct: -After making its threat, China recruits 100,000 new infantry. -The Chinese leader says he will resign if China does not successfully defend North Korea. Incorrect: -China sends a message to the North Korean leader urging him to continue fighting. -China closes its embassy in Washington, D.C.

Two countries rely on water from a river that runs through both. The two countries bargain over how much water each country should be allowed to take. While country A has historically controlled the bulk of the river, country B is going through a period of rapid economic growth; in ten years, country B is projected to be much more powerful than country A. This economic growth would be slowed significantly in war, however, because country A's air force would destroy country B's ports. Which of the following statements are true?

Correct: -Country A may be better off in waging war now because the war outcome it can obtain now is preferable to any outcome ten years in the future. -Country B has an interest in agreeing to let the United Nations monitor and enforce the current water arrangement. Incorrect: -Country B has an interest in waging war in ten years because the war outcome it could obtain then is preferable to any outcome it could obtain today. -Neither country A nor country B have an interest in waging war, because war is costly.

Freedonia wants to take over territory that is currently ruled by a neighboring country. The people living in this territory speak the same language and practice the same religion as those in Freedonia. Freedonia's neighbor is powerful, boasting a large economy and military; therefore, in a war Freedonia expects to win only 30 percent of its neighbor's territory. Freedonia's costs of war are equivalent to 15 percent of the value of the territory. Which of the deals below give Freedonia more than the value it would get from fighting?

Correct: -Neighbor keeps 75 percent; Freedonia gets 25 percent. -Neighbor keeps 80 percent; Freedonia gets 20 percent. Incorrect: -Neighbor keeps 95 percent; Freedonia gets 5 percent. -Neighbor keeps 90 percent; Freedonia gets 10 percent.

What changes have occurred in world politics that could explain a decline in interstate war since World War II?

Correct: -Nuclear weapons raise the costs of war so high that war is not worth fighting. -The value of territory as a source of economic and military power is declining. -More international organizations help states to find the bargaining range by providing information. Incorrect: -Developments in technology make linkage across contentious issues easier now.

In 1990, Iraq invaded its neighbor Kuwait. In response, U.S. President Bush stated that Iraq's invasion of Kuwait "would not stand." President Bush deployed 500,000 U.S. troops to the region and engaged in diplomacy to encourage other states to join in an attack on Iraq. The United States has a much larger economy and military than Iraq. Which of the following reasons are plausible explanations for why Saddam Hussein did not retreat?

Correct: -Saddam Hussein publicly committed to punishing Kuwait, and backing down would jeopardize his power. -Saddam Hussein feared that Iran would believe Iraq could be bullied if it backed down. Incorrect: -The U.S. threat was simply "cheap talk" and therefore not credible. -The United States had not demonstrated an ability to project power overseas.

Which of the following statements about the frequency of war since 1820 are correct?

Correct: -The percentage of states involved in interstate war has stayed low for the past fifty years. -At no point did the percentage of states involved in interstate war exceed 50 percent. Incorrect: -The incidence of interstate war has slowly but steadily decreased over the past 200 years. -The incidence of interstate war has increased following the end of the Cold War.

Which of the following options describe scenarios that give one side a first-strike advantage?

Correct: -a hill that gives occupiers the ability to easily shoot at anyone who approaches -ability to launch a nuclear weapon that destroys the other side's weapons arsenal Incorrect: -the belief that the territory in dispute is sacred and cannot be divided -publicly declaring a commitment not to back down

Which of the following could be sources of future bargaining power?

Correct: -a nuclear weapons program -an island in the middle of a strategic sea route Incorrect: -a military advantage to attacking first -a public declaration of the intent to fight

In 400 b.c.e., the Greek city-state of Athens was a growing commercial power with a thriving economy. Athens's main rival was Sparta, a city-state with a strong military that feared it could not keep up with Athens's growth. Sparta therefore elected to go to war with Athens

Preventative war

In the early 2000s, the United States argued that Saddam Hussein's Iraq was developing a nuclear weapons program. Believing Iraq would soon deploy nuclear weapons, the United States attacked Iraq.

Preventative war

If a state lacks______________ in carrying out a war, then threats of war it makes would lack _________________.

Resolve, credibility

The city of Jerusalem is one of the most contested pieces of territory in the world. Both Israelis and Palestinians desire Jerusalem as their capital. What makes this conflict so difficult to resolve?

Correct: -A lack of trust between Israelis and Palestinians means that both sides doubt the other would honor a commitment over time to share the territory. -The placement of Al-Aqsa Mosque on top of the Temple Mount makes it difficult to divide the territory in a way that is satisfactory to both sides. -Israel has publicly claimed that Jerusalem cannot be divided; this ties the hands of Israeli leaders, making it costly for them to compromise. Incorrect: -The costs of war don't matter when the object states are fighting over is indivisible. -Current military technology means that defense has the advantage over offense, thus leading to stalemate.

Which of the following were causes of World War I?

Correct: -Germany feared Russia's growing power. -Germany believed that attacking first would give it a military advantage. Incorrect: -A rising Germany saw an opportunity to take advantage of a France that was declining in power.

To figure out the bargaining range, states must know the costs of war for both sides. However, states have private information about their own capabilities and resolve for fighting a war, making it hard to calculate an opponent's costs. Which of the following are reasons why state A might not want to share information about its costs of war with state B?

Correct: -State A might want to give the appearance that its costs are lower than they are to make the bargaining range more favorable. -Sharing the information might reveal a military tactic that reduces its effectiveness; thus, the act of sharing the information will raise state A's costs. Incorrect: -If state B knows that it is more powerful than state A, then state B is more likely to attack. -The goods that states fight over usually cannot be divided or compromised; thus, war is inevitable no matter what the costs are.

__________ is a situation in which one state threatens to attack the other if the former does not get what it wants.

Crisis bargaining

If states understood the true costs of war, they would not fight.

False

_____________________ occurs when bargaining fails and at least two parties use organized military force against each other.

Interstate war

____________ is a set of deals that both states prefer to fighting a war.

The bargaining range

Research has found that wars that follow a large shift in power are more likely to be long and severe wars than wars that do not.

True

States often claim that territory or another good are indivisible, but strictly speaking this is usually not the case. Rather, the difficulty comes from striking a deal that both sides believe the other side will stick to

True