PS120 FINAL

1990 Revelation

But, N.K. delayed the acceptance of inspectors long enough to reprocess a small amount of spent fuel from the reactor. IAEA during inspections found out that N.K. had produced more plutonium than they had declared.

Reasons to Militarily Intervene (Byman)

By expanding into new territories, ISIS continues to create headlines, allowing it to attract more foreign fighters to its core organization. • ISIS' popularity has diminished because it has "lost its brilliant victories." • The local setbacks have demoralized some of its followers.

Deterrence Stability (Krepon)

Deterrence Stability: both adversaries feel that offsetting nuclear capabilities are generally balanced and stably configured, thereby providing assurance against a nuclear attack or the damaging use of conventional military capabilities.

Behavioral Model

Focuses on Bargaining and interactions among bureaucracies within a government

War is more likely to occur when:

Good in dispute is a source of power - Large changes in military balance likely - First-strikes

Bargaining NUKE NK

If fairness is central, the notion of negotiating and bargaining among parties informs how one sees the contest.

Implications of US Economic Decline

Kirshner: - The absolute size of US defense expenditures is ''more likely to be decisive in the future when the U.S should make real choices about taxes and spending. -The big defense cuts mean that the US will be soon compelled to scale back its overseas military commitments.

Wars in Unipolar World

More conflicts, less lethal

Nuclear Latency

Nuclear physical capability - How far a state's nuclear capability has been developed to build the bomb.

CMC (DO NOTHING)

Pros: a. Do Nothing - a Soviet capability to strike from Cuba made little real difference - The real danger stemmed from the possibility of U.S. over-reaction. • Cons: - It will reverse the strategic balance by further installations. - The Soviet Union's act challenged the President's most solemn warning. - If the U.S. failed to respond, no American committments are less credible

Sagan's three Models of Why States Build Nuclear Weapons

SECURITY MODEL DOMESTIC POLITICS MODEL NORMS MODEL

NEA Security Order

Absence of system-destroying conflict, rather than absence of conflict per se, will continue to characterize Northeast Asia's security order

US Underestimation of Iraq War

Administration officials may have misrepresented the costs of fighting in a failed effort to extract concessions from Saddam. b. the administration may have misrepresented the costs to maintain public support for a preventive war. a belief fostered by its failure to consider postwar governance costs.

Commitment Problems

As bargaining theory implies, a promise is credible only if it is in a party's interest to carry out the action at some later date. Maybe can't credibly commit to not to revise the terms of a deal later. Commitment problems are common in the absence of any enforcement mechanism.

Debate on the Unipolar Durability (Waltz and Layne)

Balance of power theory (Waltz and Layne): - Unipolarity would spur the emergence of new great powers to act as counterweights to US hegemon. - Unipolarity would be a short-lived transitional phase from bipolarity to multipolarity. Balancing is bound to happen under anarchy due to "the big, impersonal forces of history."

Balancing

Balancing: state's strategy to favorably alter its relative power position against another state for the pursuit of security

Preemption

is a response to an imminent threat

Limitation of Liberalism

tends to ignore the role of power

Did nukes deter Israel's foes?

the Egyptians and Syrians from invading Israel in 1973 Iraq from launching missiles on Israel in 1991, Hezbollah and Hamas from raining rockets on Israel during the last decade. None of these attacks were kept at bay by a balance of military force that overwhelmingly favored Israel.

Soft Power

the ability to shape the preferences of others through appeal and attraction. - attract and co-opt them to want what you want. - A defining feature of soft power is noncoercive. • The currency of soft power is culture, political values, and foreign policies

Schelling on RA(P)M

the foundation of a theory of strategy is "the assumption of rational behavior, motivated by conscious calculation of advantages.

First-strike advantage:

when there is a benefit to being the first to launch an attack.

General Stability

• It prevails when two powers greatly prefer peace even to a victorious war because war has become inconceivable as a means of solving their political conflicts. -categorically rejecting war as a means to resolve conflicts and disagreements - becomes the prevailing code of conduct.

Status Seekers (Larson and Shevchenko)

• States' desire to be recognized by other state Understanding China and Russia's identity and status-seeking behaviors • The desire for greater status may motivate rising powers to take on more responsibility for maintaining world order.

Drivers of US Decline

• The External Drivers - The emergence of new great powers: the Rise of China - Shift in the center of global economic power from the Euro-Atlantic area to Asia. • The Internal Drivers - the looming fiscal crisis confronting the US - increasing doubts about the dollar's long-term hold on reserve currency status.

Victim Russia: Status Concern

• The crisis is also about status, prestige, and honor. • Since the end of the Cold War, Russia has suffered more than two decades of humiliation at the hands of the West. • Hanlon: "A large number [in Russia] do consider NATO psychologically offensive and insulting."

Other U.S. Plans and Use of Cyber Attack

"Flame": US cyberprogram - transforms infected computers into multipurpose espionage tools and has infected machines across the Middle East. "Left of launch": cyber attack against North Korean missiles, before the missiles ever reach the launchpad, or just as they lift off. "Nitro Zeus": the Obama administration developed an elaborate plan for a cyber attack on Iran in case the diplomatic effort to limit its nuclear program failed. - devised to disable Iran's air defenses, communication systems and crucial parts of its power grid.

Israel's Declared Nuclear Policy

"Israel will not be the first country to introduce nuclear weapons into the Middle East." Israel has so far opted against adopting an open, declaratory nuclear posture.

Norms Model

"Nuclear weapons programs serve symbolic functions reflecting leaders' perceptions of appropriate and modern behavior." > Caveat: norms could not have been created without the strong support of the most powerful states in the international system.

Policy Implications of Russia Troublemaker Perspective

(CONSTRAINMENT) A carefully calibrated combination of containment and engagement - a so- called 'constrainment' approach (Segal, 1996) - may be the best policy the West can pursue in the short term. • The West should engage Russia politically and economically but also warn Moscow that NATO territory will be defended.

Three conditions for deterrence: Deterrence is stronger:

(Capability) when a state has the capability to impose great costs on a potential attacker. (Commitment) when a state is committed to respond to an attack (Communication) when a state's commitments are clearly communicated The theory implies an additional behavioral assumptions about would-be challenger (perceptiveness): Potential attackers are reasonably adept at assessing the defender's capabilities They understand its commitments Correctly interpret its communicated intentions.

Policy Implications of Victim Russia

(ENGAGEMENT) Abstain from making any political or military commitments to Kiev. - Moscow will never accept that Ukraine is drawn out of Russia's orbit and into the West's sphere of influence. Thus, back away from its attempts to tie Ukraine into Euro-Atlantic structures. - The neutralization, or 'Finlandization', of Ukraine would resolve the contention between Russia and the West. Brussels and Washington should enter into a dialogue with Moscow This will enable more substantive cooperation on a range of issues and shared problems, such as transnational terrorism, drug trafficking, climate change, nuclear proliferation, and the crisis in Syria.

Critics of Deterrance: Conflict-Spiral Theorists

(Security dilemma) an increased capability or reiterated deterrence threat can contribute to a failure of deterrence. Because it is interpreted as an increased capability or commitment to attack The target can respond by strengthening its own capabilities that the initial deterrent threat was intended to prevent.

Organizational model

- Actions are the output of organizational process - It emphasizes routines and operational procedures

one percent" doctrine,

Even if there was only a "one percent" chance that Iraq would develop a nuclear weapon and share it with a terrorist group...any such attack would be sufficiently catastrophic that the probability had to be treated as a certainty.

US Wrong About Iraq

Failed to plan for the tensions between religious groups once the Sunni-dominated government was defeated • Incorrectly expected that Iraqi military and police forces would remain intact to provide political stability after the war.

Nuclear Opacity

- Even after acquiring nuclear weapons, neither affirm, nor deny their existence.

Alternative Perspectives on 9/11

- September 11 was a part of the backlash against globalization directed against Americans, the embodiments of the neoliberal economic and social order. - The attacks sought to provoke an overreaction from the United States so as to further the goal of Islamic revolution. -On September 11 the United States reaped what it had sowed. -The immediate turn to a militarized response, the War on Terror, highlighted the U.S. capitalist regime's impulse for imperialist expansion.

Paradox of Intervention (Pollack)

- U.S. active presence is necessary to stop the civil wars. - But most experts agree that the U.S. presence can increase terrorism.

EU's SOFT POWERs

- construction of multilateral institutions that are attractive to join These include social welfare rights, internationally recognized human rights, parliamentary government, and restrictions on money in politics. Education and Living Standard Sports

Rational actor (policy) model

-Actors are goal driven, value-maximizing - Behaviors are motivated by conscious calculation of advantages.

Incentives to misrepresent

Following through on threats is costly - If get what want, don't have to follow through - Therefore, incentive to claim willingness even when untrue - Pretend to be strong/resolved • Khrushchev in CMC (hope that other will fold) • US in Vietnam - Pretend to be weak/irresolute • Conspiracy theory: In case of Iraq invading Kuwait, it made sense for the US to hide its strongest cards

Prospect of Coordination (Liberalism)

1)Levels of Trade & Economic Interdependence - Raises higher costs of war / creates powerful domestic constituencies which prefer peace 2) Domestic political institution: Regime type - Countries which are full democracies rarely fight with each other 3) International organizations: UN, WTO, IMF, IAEA

Three Causes of Russia's revisionism:

1. The Mindset of Putin 2) Russia's collective identity The revival of Eurasianism ideology and the rise of an increasingly extreme nationalism within Russia • The influence of Russia's political and strategic culture (self-understanding): the country always has been and will be a great power. 3. Russia's authoritarian form of governance In Russians' non-democratic political system, there are no internal checks and balances that prevent the political leadership from going to war

Two Issues of the Unipolar World

1• Peacefulness of the unipolar system - Hegemonic stability theory - Power transition theory vs. Balance of power 2. Durability of unipolar system The continuation of US supremacy vs. it is declining

Nation-States > EU

A Europe of newly assertive nation-states would be preferable to the disjointed, ineffectual, and unpopular EU of today • European countries would do a better job of checking Russia, managing the migrant crisis, and combating terrorism on their own than they have done under the auspices of the EU

Preemptive Attack on NK (Hawks)

A Kill Chain: improved missile and air-strike capabilities that aim to destroy the N.K. regime (leadership and its command-and-control center) Should the South detect any signs of an impending North Korean nuclear or conventional attack, such strikes would aim to destroy Pyongyang.

DOMESTIC POLITICS MODEL

A bottom up approach Typical actors: -- the nuclear energy establishment -- the military -- nationalist politicians "nuclear weapons are solutions looking for a problem" What does he mean? => they are merely windows of opportunity through which parochial interests can jump.

Kenneth Waltz: Nuclear Deterrence Stability

A deterrence strategy makes it unnecessary for a country to fight for the sake of increasing its security, which is a major cause of war. The High cost of nuclear war deters aggression They increase certainty about the relative strength of adversaries. Uncertainly about the course that a nuclear war might follow, along with the certainty that destruction can be immense, strongly inhibits the first use of nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons are poor instruments for blackmail. (Nuclear threats are simply incredible) avoid preventive nuclear war, develop survival nuclear arsenals, Prevent nuclear weapons accidents Because it is in their obvious national interests to do so!

Why did proliferation slow down?

A nuclear taboo, against not just use but possession? Outward-Looking models prevailed? Superpower security guarantees plus imposition of restraint by the two hegemons, the US and USSR? The 1968 Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty?

The Cost of Global Leadership

A position of global leadership generate systemic responses that speed the diffusion of capabilities away from the United States Counterbalancing (alliance formation, soft balancing) Brooks et al: The current grand strategy of deep engagement runs no risk of generating "hard" counterbalancing.

Brinkmanship

A strategy in which adversaries take actions that increase the risk of accidental war, with the hope that the other will make concessions first. Schelling: neither side can credibly threaten to launch

Bargaining failure:

A threatened state may chose to fight today rather than face a future in which it is weaker

Brief History of ISIS

AQI was nearly wiped out by U.S. counterinsurgency campaign. AQI renewed itself inside U.S.-run prisons in Iraq, where insurgents and terrorist operatives connected and formed networks. • Where the group's current chief and self-proclaimed caliph, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, first distinguished himself as a leader. - Took advantage of Syrian Chaos Established itself in Baghdad, Mosul and Tikrit

No Balancing

According to Brooks and Wohlforth, no balancing is arising because either US hegemony is benign or the power gap is overwhelmingly large. • US is 'the status quo' power. • Therefore, the security dilemma either no longer operates, or is very weak.

Additive Balancing

Additive (positive) balancing: - External balancing: directly increasing its own capabilities through the establishment of alliances and provision of economic aid to allies - Internal balancing: increasing its military power by relying on their own capabilities rather than the capabilities of allies.

EU at a Fundamental Level

All European countries are democratic and economically interdependent, and they share largely uncontested borders. • They face no such immediate security threats from other great powers • This relatively benign environment affords Europeans the luxury of focusing their geopolitical influence on other more distant matters.

Al Qaeda's Propaganda

An image of religious legitimacy and piety. The men appeared as ascetic warriors, sitting on the ground in caves, studying in libraries, or taking refuge in remote camps. In Al Qaeda, there is no room for women or alcohol.

Unipole

Anarchical interstate system - where only one great power enjoys a preponderance of power - The existence of many juridically equal nation- states - Interstate balance-of- power dynamics

China's Geopolitical Disadvantage

As Japan, India, and others try to balance Chinese power, they welcome an American presence. The fact that Chinese power in Asia is contested both by those other states provides a major power advantage to the United States.

The success of US grand strategy

As a largely satisfied power leading the international system, US grand strategy has been prevent a much more dangerous world from emerging • Power is as much about preventing unfavorable outcomes as it is about causing favorable ones • Washington has done a much better job than most Americans appreciate.

Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD)

BMD is to negate the utility of the opposing side's nuclear capability, increasing the risk they could be subject to a first strike. The introduction of BMD is highly destabilizing, even if the declared intention for doing so is defensive because: - It disrupts the extant balance - It undermines established relationships of MAD

Strength of Bargaining Theory

Bargaining theory forces scholarly attention on the question of why war appeared inevitable—despite its substantial costs.

Deterrence Stability in South Asia is elusive (Krepon)

Because India and Pakistan have security dilemmas that were heightened by imbalances in conventional military capabilities and other problems related to religion, inheritance, geography, and regional security. Added increments of nuclear capabilities will result in less security unless national leaders resolve their disputes or agree to set them aside in order to normalize ties.

Defensive realists

Believe in Security Dilemma The measures taken by one state in order to increase its security can unintentionally decrease the security of other states, leading through those states countermeasures (action- reaction cycle) to competition and conflict.

Limitation of Constructivism

Better at describing the past than anticipating the future.

The Budgetary Cost of Deep Engagement

Brooks, et al: After the September 11 attacks, defense spending increased dramatically, owing in large part to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The U.S. can sustain the budgetary cost of deep engagement, even if a future administration should decide to increase funding substantially. A decision to abandon allies and partners would be exceedingly hard to reverse.

Clinton-BUSH NK NUKE Transition

Bush renounced NK Engagement

1998 NK Crisis

But the US aids came very slowly. North Korea was undergoing terrible economic hardship, including widespread famine. United States had not honored its side of the bargain by delaying construction of the light water reactors (disagreements over details of implementation, congressional unwillingness to provide funds for reactors)

Nuclear Hedging

Capability + Intention to build the bomb But, not breaking out Levite: it refers to a national strategy of maintaining a viable option for the relatively rapid acquisition of nuclear weapons Hedging involves nuclear fuel-cycle facilities capable of producing fissionable materials (by way of uranium enrichment /plutonium separation) For any coercive or deterrent value to be obtained, a state must be perceived by others as relatively close to having the bomb.

China's Grand Strategy

China's "peaceful rise" through "Lie low. Hide your capabilities. Bide your time" (Deng Xiaoping) • To spur its economic growth, for some three decades, China took a low profile in international politics - Avoid confrontation with US - It joined the US led international economic order. - To become wealthy enough to acquire the military capabilities to compete with US for

China USSR Argument to Seek Status

Chinese and Russian foreign policies since the end of the Cold War have been motivated by a consistent objective—to restore both countries' great power status. China and Russia will be more likely to participate in global governance if the United States can find ways to recognize their distinctive status and identities.

THAAD: Chinese Response

Chinese local and provincial governments suspended exchange programs with South Korean counterparts. Impact on hallyu, the Korean cultural wave Travel ban Boycott against Lotte company's products and service

War from Incomplete Information

Communicating resolve by risking war -Brinkmanship -Tying hands

Bush's Approaches to N.K.

Complete, Verifiable and Irreversible Dismantlement. Influence of Neo-conservatives on the administration Bush's unwillingness to normalize relations. 2002 Nuclear Crisis - Agreed Framework Broke Down

CMC (BLOCKADE)

Cons: - Possible Soviet reprisal in Berlin - allowing the Soviets additional time to complete the missiles. (Then it becomes a fait accompli). - If Soviet ships did not stop, the United States would be forced to fire the first shot. - It might be illegal as it would deny the traditional freedom of the seas.

THAAD Proponents

Conservative forces argued that the THAAD deployment is the right decision. They regard it as an unavoidable self-defense measure to cope with nuclear and missile threats from North Korea and It is a concrete sign of the U.S. alliance commitment.

Alternatives to Iraq War

Containment and Deterrence through a combination of sanctions and inspections regimes Wolfowitz: "containment was a very costly strategy." • Yet, containment remained a viable alternative to war, especially if the costs of actually fighting are factored into the equation.

India-Pakistan strategic rivalry (Karl)

Contiguous but bitterly contested territory - Kashmir Sharp historical animosities - Fought four wars Internal vulnerabilities -Pakistan is the only nuclear-armed state that does not have a monopoly on the use of force within or across its borders Conflicting national identities and religions - India's nationalism; violent extremist groups based in Pakistan

What ISIS Wants

Control territory and create a "pure" Sunni Islamist state governed by a brutal interpretation of sharia (Islamic law).

Israel Opacity

Conventional Explanation: Israel has maintained the Israeli posture of ambiguity To prevent the region's nuclearization prepare the technological and military structure for the event of dire national emergency, It served to lessen tensions with the United States Ambiguity is no longer a mere camouflage for a development program but has become one of Israel's main strategic asset.

Jon Kun Choi Crisis Stability

Crisis stability is dominant in Northeast Asia, producing a relatively long period without major militarized disputes. • The regional order of Northeast Asia exhibits an increasing trend toward general stability with gradually emerging liberal elements such as intensified economic interdependence and the idea of war-aversion.

Propositions of Deterrence

Defenders of a status quo must raise the cost of challenging it to an unacceptable level.

Nuclear Optimists (Waltzian)

Despite the severity of the Kargil and Twin Peaks crises, peace nonetheless continued to hold, however uneasily and in circumstances. Optimists view the absence of general war, as well as the evident signs of Indian restraint in both episodes, as compelling evidence of nuclear deterrence.

Deterrence Instability

Deterrence stability between the superpowers was NOT achievable in an advanced, interactive nuclear competition driven by significant security concerns and conventional force imbalances. Stability rested more on the state of US-Soviet relations than on offsetting nuclear weapon capabilities.

Critics of Deterrance: Organizational Theory (Sagan)

Domestic political imperatives. e.g. Sagan: Military officers They think war as likely in the near term and inevitable in the long run They are skeptical of non-military alternatives (diplomatic and economic methods of conflict resolution). They are trained to focus on pure military logic They display strong biases in favor of offensive doctrines and decisive operations.

Article IV of NPT

Each of the Parties to the Treaty undertakes to pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament, and on a Treaty on general and complete disarmament under strict and effective international control.

The United States as the Once and Future Superpower(Brooks and Wohlforth.)

Economic growth no longer translates as directly into military power. - Technological and organizational bar is high. • China's true Achilles' heel on the world stage: its low level of technological expertise compared with the United States. • The globe-spanning alliance structure that constitutes the core of the existing liberal international order.

Negative Balancing

Effecting a reduction in an adversary's power capabilities. - Prevent the formation of an adversarial alliance - Arms sales to the 'enemy of my enemy' - Economic embargoes, and even initiatives to destabilize a rival's domestic politics. - Strategic non-cooperation, institutional restraints

"Brussels effect."

Europe dominates global regulation, forcing its trading partners to adopt relatively high European product standards — a phenomenon calls a hegemonic

Economic Sanction (EU)

Europe is the largest trading partner of many countries in the former Soviet Union and nearly every country in the Middle East and Africa. • Thus, it is hard to imagine sanctions working anywhere in the world without Europe's active participation.

EU in World Politics

Europe's role in world politics is secondary and declining. Europe is too decentralized to act as a superpower.

Why Terrorism?

Terrorists are extremists: -They are politically weak relative to the demands they make. - Less capable than states: asymmetric warfare

US's Geopolitical Advantage

The US and other states can work to engage China and provide incentives for it to play a responsible role, while hedging against the possibility of aggressive behavior as China's power grows.

Israel's dilemma

The first views nuclear weapons as constituting a sharp break with the past, as not being genuine weapons at all - MAD, Nuclear Revolution vs. The second sees nuclear weapons as congruous with history and political realism, and believes that one must live with them

Are U.S. Allies Free Riding?

To be considered free riding, the consumption of the good by one should NOT reduce its consumption by others.The consumption of U.S. security guarantees by some states (e.g., NATO) arguably can reduce the security of others (e.g., Russia).

gradual militarization of the internet.

We are moving into dangerous and uncharted territory. Unlike nuclear or chemical weapons, countries are developing cyber weapons outside any regulatory framework There is no international treaty or agreement restricting the use of cyber weapons.

Nuclear deterrence

Whatever the number of nuclear states, a nuclear world is tolerable if those states are able to send convincing deterrent messages: It is useless to attempt to conquer because you will be severely punished.

2002 Nuclear Crisis

When confronted with evidence of its secret uranium program, in November 2002, N.K. first denied, but later indirectly admitted. US left the negotiation without any attempt to resolve the issue. N.K. withdrew from the NPT, kicked out the inspectors, and started reprocessing plutonium. (Perhaps Pyongyang later took advantage of the fact that the U.S. military was tied down in the invasion of Iraq)

The Resolution of 1994 Crisis

entered into bilateral negotiations. A diplomatic agreement known as the Agreed Framework, negotiated.

Conditions for Peace (NEA)

For a plausible expectation of peace, states must share the worldview that the peaceful status quo is the better engine for development, social progress, and innovation.

ISIS Attraction

Genuine conviction: It has tapped into the beliefs of an important subset of Sunni Muslims, particularly young men • ISIS trumpets sectarianism, portraying itself as the defender and avenger of Sunnis worldwide even young Sunnis who lack real religious knowledge or conviction by playing into their desires for adventure and a sense of purpose.

Why Iraq didn't Send a Costly Signal

Given the high costs of war, Iraq should have done everything possible to reassure the United States that it would not develop WMDs. Saddam could not provide unambiguous evidence to the international community of his compliance with the UN disarmament resolutions without also revealing his military weakness to internal opponents, Iran, and possibly other regional powers—including Israel

Social Identity Theory Implications for USSR and China

Given the value differences b/w the West and China & Russia, social mobility by China and Russia seems almost impossible in the near future. • Social competition among them is costly and dangerous. strategic empathy is critical for inducing cooperation among them.

The Objectives of US Grand Strategies

Grand strategy is a set of ideas for deploying a nation's resources to achieve its interests over the long run. U.S. has sought to advance its core interests in security, prosperity, and domestic liberty by pursuing three overlapping objectives: stable security environment, liberal economic order, global order & institutions favorable to the US interests.

Bureaucratic Politics

Happenings in foreign affairs are outcomes of various overlapping bargaining games among players arranged hierarchically in the national government. No consistent set of strategic objectives. - Decisions are made not be rational choice but by maneuvers of principal players (politics).

SIT in IR

Having superior military capabilities does not necessarily bring with it superior status, acceptance, or respect. Status-seeking actions can be largely symbolic and aimed at influencing others' perceptions. During the Cold War, the Soviet Union engaged in an effort to win global status through military competition and geopolitical expansion, but the United States was unwilling to recognize the Soviet Union as an equal

Options to Deal with NK

Hawks: Sanctions and other pressures to threat its regime survival Preemptive/ Preventive attacks Missile defense Doves: Sanctions only to induce more cooperation. Dialogue and negotiation

Options to deal with N.K. nuclear weapons and diplomatic deadlock

Hawks: Sanctions and other pressures to threat its regime survival Preemptive/ Preventive attacks Missile defense Doves: Sanctions only to induce more cooperation. Dialogue and negotiation

Empire

Hierarchcal - One empire rules the system: controls the external behaviors of all other states. - Intersocietal divide-and rule practices e.g. Ancient Egypt, Rome, and China

ISIS'S Self-Sustaining Model

Holding territory has allowed the group to build a self-sustaining financial model unthinkable for most terrorist groups. • Oil Revenue • Looting and Taxation

Wilaya

ISIS Province/An ISIS affiliate that had pledged its loyalty to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi The provinces pose a serious threat to Western interests: they enable ISIS to expand its reach and make local groups more deadly in their regional conflicts

Audrey Cronin on ISIS

ISIS is not al Qaeda. • IISIS functions as a pseudo-state, led by a conventional army • Some 30,000 fighters, holding territory in both Iraq and Syria • Maintains extensive military capabilities • Controls lines of communication, commands infrastructure • Funds itself, and engages in sophisticated military operations

US Should Intervene in ISIS

ISIS remains convinced that it can achieve total victory. Until the reality on the battlefield shifts, little can be achieved at the negotiating table. • Thus, the United States should lead in Iraq and Syria. A strategy of stepping back from the region means the United States will not try to shut down the nearby civil wars. • It means risking the near-term collapse of Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Tunisia, and Turkey.

Limits of Revisionist Russia

If Putin were committed to creating a greater Russia, signs of his intentions would almost certainly have arisen before February 22, 2014. • There has been no outright military invasion of the area. - The scale of Moscow's military involvement remained modest.

Nuclear Weapons

If security rivals are in the state of mutual assured destruction (MAD) - they have a secured second strike capability & those states recognize the MAD situation, are the 'ultimate defensive technology' => significantly moderate the intensity of the security dilemma.

Could U.S. Have Prevented the Rise of ISIS (Graeme Wood)

If we had identified the Islamic State's intentions early, and realized that the vacuum in Syria and Iraq would give it ample space to carry them out • If we have pushed Iraq to harden its border with Syria and preemptively make deals with its Sunnis • That would at least have avoided the electrifying propaganda effect created by the declaration of a caliphate.

Impact of 9/11

Immediately after the 9/11 attacks, key members of the administration suspected Iraq and renewed calls for regime change in Baghdad.

The danger of US overreaction

In a world in which the United States retains its overwhelming military preeminence as its economic dominance slips, the temptation to overreact to perceived threats will grow. • Both China and US could be perceived as revisionist power. - Jennifer Lind

Impact of the NPT on the Likelihood of Proliferation

In short, the NPT is a complex institution representing a set of compromises between the governments that negotiated its content. Insignificant: Betts: "The treaties are effect of nonproliferation, not cause of it." Sagan: one should not select on the dependent variable and concentrate only on recent "problematic" cases of states that acquired or tried to acquire the bomb." - one should also study the broader set of cases of "nuclear abstinence" (states that refrained from starting a weapons program).

Compliance

In the compliance frame, the contest is not among actors with equal standing, but rather is an effort by authorities to compel a deviant actor to comply. Fairness is simply compliance.

Inclusive Wealth

Inclusive wealth: it counts a country's stock of assets in three areas: manufactured capital (roads, buildings, machines, and equipment), human capital (skills, education, health) natural capital (sub-soil resources, ecosystems, the atmosphere.) • Added up, the United States' inclusive wealth comes to almost $144 trillion-4.5 times China's $32 trillion.

Regional Conflicts in South Asia India Pakistan

India and Pakistan have fought three wars since they gained independence in 1947. And they fought another war in 1999 over Kargil right AFTER both countries tested nuclear weapons.

DOMESTIC POLITICS MODEL - Case of India

India tested a "peaceful device," in 1974 but didn't weaponize. In 1998 tested weapons. India had not requested security assurances from US or Soviet Union. We can trace pressure - it was from scientists. Both tests (1974 1998) were big boosts to government popularity.

Bargaining Outcome (Iran)

Iran won the right to continue enrichment Iran paid an enormous price for winning these points: it lost hundreds of billions of dollars in revenue and trade as a result of sanctions It was politically isolated. It had to accept more comprehensive monitoring and verification of its future nuclear activities than other states

Iran's track record

Iran's past behaviors - failed negotiations, unfulfilled promises, its reluctance to make concession on the nuclear issue - suggests that Iran never intended to reach an agreement before achieving some degree of mastery of all elements of the fuel cycle.

Cause of Iraq War

Iraq's WMD program and its connection with Al-Qaeda • US wanted the War: Neo-conservatives, special interests It was a bargaining failure between US and Iraq • Information problem? Commitment Problem? • David Lake: delusions of US government and Saddam Hussein, based on their prior beliefs.

Commitment Problem in Iraq War

Iraq's inability to commit credibly not to develop WMD or share the resulting technologies with others, including terrorists. • It was not the facts of Iraq's WMD program that mattered, but its future capabilities and Saddam's intentions

ISIS/ISIL/IS

Islamic State: this is the term used by the organization itself. ISIS: Direct Translation ISIL: Used by opposition because IS disdains itt

Limitation of Realism

It does not account for international change

Social Identity Theory

It explores how social groups strive to achieve a positively distinctive identity. • Social identity theory posits that people derive part of their identity from membership in various social groups—nation, ethnicity, religion, political party, gender, or occupation People compare their group's achievements and qualities to a reference group, one that is equal or slightly superior. The availability of multidimensional comparisons underlies social creativity.

The Implications of the Deal India-Pakistan

It has been suspected that Riyadh has invested significant financial resources in the nuclear weapons sector in Pakistan. Saudi Arabia is simply seeking to exploit the legitimacy that Iran's nuclear program has gained from the process. Saudi Arabia is simply seeking to exploit the legitimacy that Iran's nuclear program has gained from the process. Tehran has highlighted the potential for a state to use civil nuclear development as a cover for a proliferation strategy while remaining a member of the NPT. However, the risks to the NPT associated with legitimizing Iranian hedging are not as significant as those associated with rejecting any deal that does not fully roll back Iran's nuclear capability.

'Stability-Instability Paradox'

It is the notion that nuclear weapons provide the strategic cover under which limited conflict can be waged . Glenn Snyder: "a range of minor ventures might be undertaken with impunity under the nuclear threshold." Robert Jervis: "To the extent that the military balance is stable at the level of all-out nuclear war, it will become less stable at lower levels of violence." e.g. India's army chief during the Kargil crisis, avers that 'the Pakistani military could safely conduct a low-intensity conflict...and that its nuclear capability would prevent a conventional Indian attack'.

ISIS's Finance

It looted banks and plundered antiquities to sell on the black market. • It has controlled major transportation arteries in western Iraq and taxed the movement of goods and charged tolls. Selling some of this oil on the black market in Iraq and Syria

Russian Nuclear Doctrine in the 1990s

It shifted its nuclear doctrine away from its long-standing No First Use (NFU) commitment

Pseudo-State ISIS

Its bureaucracy is supervised by 12 administrators who govern territories in Iraq and Syria, handling matters such as finances, media, and religious affairs.

ISIS' Propaganda

Its strength is raw power and revenge, not legitimacy. It attracts followers yearning for not only religious righteousness but also adventure, personal power, and a sense of self and community. • Immediate Opportunity to fight. The group also procures sexual partners for its male recruits; most of women are coerced or even enslaved.

The Return of Europe's Nation State

Jakub Grygiel • The EU was crippled by the euro crisis and divisions over how to apportion refugees • Hopes for European unity seem to grow dimmer by the day. • Europe national leaders and many voters are already turning inward: - The best way to protect their countries is become more sovereign, not less.

Bush's BMD-> Russia's Hard Balancing

Khoo and Steff: • Significant effect of the Bush administration's development and deployment of Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) systems during the 2001-08 period has been to serve as a catalyst for hard balancing, primarily of an internal variety, on the part of Moscow. • Their case study shows how two defensive realist states have been caught, through the process of hard internal balancing, in security dilemma dynamics.

Getting Tough on N.K.( Stanton, Lee, Klingner)

Kim will disarm only under duress so extreme that it threatens the survival of his regime. Washington must threaten the one thing that Pyongyang values more than its nuclear weapons: its survival U.S. should crack down on the foreign financial dealings of North Korean officials and companies and the foreign states that help them. Only financial coercion stands any reasonable chance of getting North Korea to take the path of Myanmar: incrementally opening up its society.

Theoretical Implication of War

Lake: the prior beliefs of the president and his advisers were a crucial determinant of the war.

• Nicholas Leman: The War on Terror

Lemann observed in September 2002: • the War on Terror has entered the language so fully, and framed the way people think about how the United States is reacting to the September 11th attacks so completely National identity discourse overshadowed all others in the ensuing weeks. • No significant domestic public criticism of [Bush's] discourse about evil was voiced.

Policy Implications of Security Model (SAGAN - Why States Nuke)

Maintain credible nuclear commitments to key allies. (continued first-use policy may be necessary). Negative security assurance (no use against non-nuclear states) may be effective in the short-run, but doubtful in the long-run. Positive security assurance may be necessary.

Deep Engagement

Maintain security commitments to partners and allies in Europe, East Asia, and the Middle East. The security commitments are a necessary condition of U.S. leadership. The leadership is necessary to pursue the strategy's three core objectives. The leadership does not imply the aggressive use of force to overturn the international status quo or force U.S. preferences on other societies.

How to Achieve the Goals of U.S. Grand Strategy

Managing the external environment to reduce near- and long-term threats to U.S. national security; Promoting a liberal economic order to expand the global economy and maximize domestic prosperity; Creating, sustaining, and revising the global institutional order to secure necessary interstate cooperation on terms favorable to U.S. interests

Security Community

Military means for conflict resolution becomes inconceivable among developed states. The security dilemma is replaced by a security community, which generates a strong foundation for general stability

Cyber Security and War

Misha Glenny The Stuxnet computer worm against an Iranian nuclear facility, began in George W. Bush' presidency (Obama also ordered its use) Originally deployed by US and Israel with the aim of infecting the Natanz uranium enrichment facility in Iran. Sneaked a memory stick into the plant to introduce the virus to its private and secure "offline" network. temporarily took out nearly 1,000 of the 5,000 centrifuges Iran had spinning at the time to purify uranium.

US Unipolarity and BMD

Monteiro: unipolarity reduces structural constraints, provides the unipole with a wide latitude to pursue policies that are perceived as unilateral and revisionist. A search by the unipole for security through BMD is often perceived as offensive, causing arms race. - It can cause other states, especially with an adversarial relationship with the unipole, to seek technology to undermine those defenses.

Dialogue and Negotiations with North Korea

Moon: No matter how devilish the North is, dialogue and negotiation seem to be the only viable alternative. The fact that these options did not work in the past should not be a reason to dismiss them. We must listen and talk to Pyongyang by placing ourselves in its shoes. Hawks argue that U.S. repeatedly attempted to negotiate. e.g. 2009, former President Clinton flew to Pyongyang to meet with Kim Jong Il (?). U.S. officals often came to the negotiation table without an authority to reach a deal. Most of them were low level officials.

Demand Side

More desire for the bombs => more proliferation - Policy implications: curving political incentives for acquiring weapons through security assurance, economic sanction, etc.

Role of Diplomacy

Myanmar, Iran, Cuba: They have been under sanctions for years if not decades. U.S. diplomacy was a critical part in inducing their cooperation.

1994 Agreed Framework

N.K. agreed: to eventually dismantle its reactors, not have uranium enrichment facilities remain in the NPT, implement full IAEA safeguard. In exchange, the United States promised to provide it with construct two light-water reactors for energy production

Implications of 1994 Nuke Crisis

N.K. attempted a direct deal with US - by using the nuclear weapon program as a bargaining leverage, perhaps, it pursed an economic development and its regime survival. U.S. officials took the approach of compliance. U.S. lack of understanding on N.K. domestic situations. Direct negotiation with the U.S. high level authority was not allowed until Jimmy Carter intervened.

1994 Nuclear Crisis

N.K. began preparations to reprocess the fuel that may have given them enough weapons- grade plutonium. The United States, Japan, and S.K. announced their intention to impose severe sanctions. N.K: it would consider sanctions as an act of war and threatened to turn Seoul into a "sea of flames."

NPT Against Proliferation

NWS: prevent NWS from providing nuclear weapons to their allies (Even if all NWSs want this, one defection can undermine cooperation) <= Article I enshrines this. NNWS: it is in their interests to constrain themselves from having the weapons only if they can be reassured that their neighbors are practicing similar constraints. 2. Domestic politics model: the NPT as promoting "responsible" use of civilian nuclear power he actors (empowered by the treaty and manage nuclear power plants in their state) have parochial reasons to adhere to their treaty commitments. 3. Realists: the NPT as a way to manage hypocrisy Swango (2009): the NPT was designed in the 1960s primarily to constrain Germany and India opening the treaty for universal signature was merely a face-saving device to make the constraints more politically acceptable in Bonn and New Delhi.

Sustaining the NK Regime (Cumings)

Neo-Confusion ideology (diverged fundamentally from Marxism-Leninism) emphasized hierarchies, centralized bureaucracy, obedience to the state, and social stability. Modern form of monarchy, strong military China still does not want the regime gone.

Conventional Explanations about U.S. Motives for the Iraq War

Neoconservative faction and its dreams of autocratic dominoes falling across the region • President Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney's ties to the oil industry • The impact of the September 11 attacks on the administration's tolerance for risk. => Set the prior beliefs of the administration.

Civil War and Terrorism (Pollack)

No matter how many terrorists the United States kills, without an end to the civil wars, more young men will keep turning to terrorism.

"The Stability of a Unipolar World" by William Wohlforth

No state is likely to be in a position to take on the US (at least for the next 20-30 years). A durable US unipolar world is a peaceful world. - The structure gives the US incentives to manage security globally, limiting competition among major powers.

We must be realistic (Delury)

North Korea will start focusing on its prosperity instead of its self-preservation only once it no longer has to worry about its own destruction: when he starts feeling confident that he has secured his position at home and neutralized the threats from abroad. The U.S. needs to help him find a nonnuclear way to feel secure along his borders.

Sanctions and Pressures (Hawks to NK)

North Korea's crimes (possession of nuclear weapons and violation of UN resolutions) should be punished by comprehensive and forceful sanctions Such sanctions can compel the North and its leader, Kim Jong-un, to choose a path toward denuclearization.

Preventive Strike

North Korea's nuclear assets (nuclear facilities, materials, and warheads) that are concealed in various places. Now it has a mobile missile-launching capability. The command-and-control system is heavily fortified. Targeting and decapitating the country's political leadership would be extremely difficult, if not impossible. estimated to be over one million people in the first month of war.

Security Challenges in the Northeast Asia

North Korean Nuclear Crisis Brewing territorial disputes that fuel nationalistic sentiments across the region.

Why the N.K. Nuclear Bargaining turned into Recurring Crises?

North Korean regime's peculiar domestic dilemma? Domestic survival dilemma: they feared that economic contact with the outside world would destabilize their regime's control of North Korea. Dramatic reform is infeasible.

NWS

Nuclear Weapon State

Theory of Unipolarity

Nuno Monteiro: An investigation of its peacefulness must consider potential causes of conflict beyond interactions between great powers. • "Although unipolarity dampens great power competition, it produces competition between the unipole and recalcitrant minor powers and, when the unipole disengages from the world, among major and minor powers."

Iraqi Information Problem

On the Iraq side, Saddam incorrectly believed that the United States was a paper tiger or lacked resolve. • Captured documents and interrogations of former regime members suggest that no one risked telling Saddam what he did not want to hear. Given the transparency of U.S. actions in this case, Saddam was deluding himself about the risks he was running. Saddam questioned Washington's resolve against significant battle field casualties inflicted by his military. • This belief also explains why he was willing to run high risks of war with the United States rather than reveal his nonexistent WMD capability.

Countering Terrorist Financing

One of U.S. counterterrorism's most impressive success stories. • In 2004, the U.S. Treasury Department has cut deeply into al Qaeda's ability to profit from money laundering and receive funds under the cover of charitable giving.

Incomplete information:

One side knows something the other side doesn't

Moravcsik's Answers

Only patriotism has the kind of powerful and popular appeal that can mobilize Europe's citizens to rearm against their threatening neighbors. Europe will be able to meet its most pressing security challenges only when it abandons the fantasy of continental unity and embraces its Far-right parties are unlikely to triumph in any continental political system, let alone spark a mass withdrawal from the EUgeopolitical pluralism.

Debate on the Unipolar Durability

Optimists: The magnitude of US power precludes other states from balancing against its hegemony. US hegemony is ''benevolent.": security and economic benefits from US hegemony. Institutional lock-in: acting through multilateral institutions, the United States can allay others' fears. ''soft power''—the attractiveness of its ideology and culture—draws others into its orbit .

Nuclear Realities in Pakistan

Pakistan's elites saw the bomb as a panacea for solving Pakistan's multiple problems. It would bring national security, allow Pakistan to liberate Kashmir from India, bind the nation together, make its people proud of their country and its leaders, free the country from reliance on aid and loans, and lay the base for the long-frustrated goal of economic development Hoodbhoy and Mian: This idea was a fantasy.

How to Understand Nuclear Crisis

Perkovich: One issue is whether a proliferation dispute is framed as a matter of compliance with rules or a matter of bargaining for a fair deal instead. North Korea and Iran broke the rules of NPT, specifically IAEA safeguards and disclosure requirements. Bargaining Frame: non-nuclear weapon states All countries have a right to enrich uranium. NNWs exhibited double standards in choosing when, where, and how to apply nonproliferation rules.

Nuclear Pessimists

Pessimists regard Pakistan's role in sparking the confrontations as exemplifying the instabilities emanating from the spread of nuclear weapons. War was only averted by factors outside the nuclear realm General hostilities seemed imminent and the possibility of nuclear weapons use appeared ominous.

Why Outside Intervention Necessary (Pollack)

Pollack: Absent external involvement, the region's leaders consistently opt for strategies that exacerbate conflict and feed perpetual instability. The Middle East has not been without a great-power overseer of one kind or another. • Fragile political systems (whether dictatorships or new monarchies) • Weak civil society • Heavy dependence on oil

The Benefits of Deep Engagement

Prevents the emergence of a far more dangerous global security environment Many doubt European governments will pay the political costs of increased EU defense cooperation. Nuclear Nonproliferation Greater regional insecurity could well feed proliferation cascades, as states such as Egypt, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Saudi Arabia might choose to create nuclear forces. In short, by supplying reassurance, deterrence, and active management, the United States lowers security competition in the world's key regions. - This in turn makes it easier to sustain the policy over the long term

CMC (Surgical Air Strike)

Pros: - swift conventional attack, removing the missiles. - the effective counteraction which the attempted deception deserved. • Cons: - The Air Force could not guarantee destruction of all the missile. - A surprise air attack would kill Russians at the missile site.(then an attack on Berlin or Turkey was highly probable.)

Limits of Russia Troublemaker Perspective

Putin government was in dire need to boost its domestic position? Thus, it instigated an external conflict to shore up its domestic position? • Even prior to the annexation of Crimea, Putin's approval ratings hovered around 60%. • Outside actors have limited influence to effect Russia's internal transformation. • Moreover, the efforts can easily be displayed by Kremlin-controlled media outlets as Western attempts to weaken Russia from within.

NATO Enlargement

Putin maintained that admitting those two countries to NATO would represent a "direct threat" to Russia. Argument against NATO Expansion • In the mid-1990s, some realists opposed expansion in the belief that a declining great power with an aging population and a one- dimensional economy did not need to be contained. • George Kennan: "I think the Russians will gradually react quite adversely...I think it is a tragic mistake."

Rethinking US-China Relation

Relative decline of American power: China's size and high rate of economic growth will bring it closer to the US in power resources. • That does not necessarily mean that China will surpass the United States as the most powerful country. => Think power in behavioral outcomes - US soft-power, technological & geopolitical advantages over China

Debate on US Grand Strategy

Retrenchment Total disengagement (Isolationism) Offshore balancing (stay over the horizon and "pass the buck" to local powers) Deep Engagement Brooks, Ikenberry, and Wohlforth US Offensive Dominance - Neo-conservatives

Why does US worry about Iran's nuclear weapons?

Revolutionary ambitions. Iranian government nurtures revolutionary ambitions toward conservative Sunni neighbors and to support Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations. Tehran, once in possession of nuclear weapons, would feel emboldened to engage in aggressive actions, including to attack against the tankers in the Persian Gulf or to assist terrorist attacks. Undemocratic regime, violations of human rights Anti-semitism/anti-western rhetoric by former President Ahmadinejad and some religious leaders.

Perspective I: Revisionist Russia

Russia is a revisionist state bent on overturning the post-Cold War order in Europe. (to recreate an empire)

Perspective II: Victim Russia

Russia is a status-quo power with limited aims and ambitions. • Russia's more assertive posture in recent years was to counterbalance the Western influence. Moscow's opposition to further enlargement of NATO, up to its border EU's increased activism in the post-Soviet area. This is a great worry for Russia partly because: - EU enlargement appears to be closely associated with NATO expansion.

The Nuclear Doctrine Change

Russian Response to the US leaving ABM Treaty Building new strategic and conventional weapons equipped with BMD countermeasures Changing its military doctrine

Sanctions and Pressures (Doves)

Sanctions have not been effective. Despite UNSR and S.K. pressure, North Korea has not shown signs of compliance. Sanctions would encourage more to complete its nuclear weapons and ICBM. China dose not want the collapse of the regime. Sanctions and other pressure should be utilized not as leverage to bring about the collapse of the N.K. regime, but as inducements for N.K. to return to dialogue and negotiation.

Why Iran Wants Nukes

Security concerns Sagan: Iran is, mostly, a classic case of a state that wants nuclear weapons to dissuade an attack. It has long faced a belligerent Iraq. (The Cold War was not so safe) SadDam has gone in 2003. But Washington called for regime change in Tehran

Why Iran Wants Nuclear Weapons

Security concerns Sagan: Iran is, mostly, a classic case of a state that wants nuclear weapons to dissuade an attack. It has long faced a belligerent Iraq. Domestic Politics: complicated. Some military and religious leaders want a nuclear option whereas moderates (hoping for economic reform and openness) want nuclear restraint. Norms: Prestige can be one motivation. Tehran's nuclear defiance is linked to the Islamic Republic's identity as a sovereign nation-state Iran is competing for a leadership in the Middle East.

Why did North Korea purse nukes?

Security motivations Korean War Isolation after the end of the Cold War (Weakening alliance with China and Russia) U.S. threat of regime change U.S. contemplated and threatened a nuclear use At the beginning of the war Chinese Intervention (Truman sent a vague threat) In ending the War Domestic politics regime succession The importance of nukes for a regime security has increased.

Security Dilemma

Self-defensive efforts by one state to increase its security by arming itself unintentionally generates fear in other states. • The existence of private information and incentives to misrepresent heightens uncertainty, exacerbating security dilemma dynamics.

SNS (Kroenig)

Sensitive Nuclear Assistance state-sponsored transfer of the key materials and technologies necessary for the construction of a nuclear weapons arsenal to nonnuclear states

The NPT - Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty

Signed 1968, EIF 1970 - two kinds of states - NWSs and NNWSs - non-proliferation - don't give, don't accept nuclear reactors are put under "safeguards" good faith efforts to end arms race and generally disarm NNWs' right to peaceful nuclear technology States can withdraw with 3 months warning to last for 25 years, then a meeting

Collapsists

Since June, 1990 until now: North Korea was on the verge of collapse and might "implode" U.S. policies of non-engagement seeking to hasten its collapse. Bipartisan principle of successive U.S. administrations toward N.K.

Obama's Strategic Patience

Since then his police toward N.K. seemed to be basically to do nothing until N.K. agrees to gives up its nuclear weapons.Bruce Cumings: Obama is simply the latest one to fall prey to collapsists' charms.

Examples of Social Creativity

Social cooperation is illustrated by U.S.-EU relations: • Europeans take pride in their generous social welfare benefits, cosmopolitanism. While the United States emphasizes its military power, global reach, and international competitiveness. Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru achieved preeminence as leader of the Nonaligned Movement and proponent of disarmament and anticolonialism

Social Mobility

Social mobility emulates the values and practices of the higher-status group with the goal of gaining admission into elite clubs The choice of one type of strategy over another depends on the openness of the status hierarchy (the permeability of elite clubs) as well as the similarity of their values with the established powers. West Germany and Japan sought admission to the "civilized states" by renouncing offensive military force and accepting liberal democracy after the WWII.

Norms Model - Contributors

Social norm - you follow them because you and people generally think you ought to National Identity - what you see as defining you, what makes you you. Canada wouldn't be Canada with them.

Realism

State of Nature: Anarchy (no central authority to govern international relations) Alliance option is insufficient on its own. Main Unit of Analysis - States (great powers are major actors). IOs, NSActors, or NGO: - little importance in major issues - little/no independent effect (epiphenomenal) Use Military Power

Critics of Deterrance: Misperception

Statements of intention can be misinterpreted. During crisis some information can be ignored or discounted.

Why States Assist Nuclearly (Kroenig)

States provide SNS for strategic reasons: Power projecting states (having the ability to fight a full-scale conventional war globally) should not provide SNS because nuclear proliferation, even to their allies, would cause problems for them. Thus, U.S. has strongly opposed SNS. Non-power projecting states are more likely to export SNS when it would have the effect of constraining an enemy.More proliferation is less threatening to them as they lack power and interests that can be harmed by proliferation.

Critics of Deterrance (Lebow)

States sometimes challenge the status quo even when the likely net benefit of challenge is less than the net benefit of refraining from the challenge. Lebow: Challenges depend more on a calculus of internal necessity than of foreign opportunity or necessity.

"Nuclear Reversal Cases"

States that had them and gave them up: South Africa, Belarus, Ukraine, Kazakhstan States that contemplated but gave up due to U.S. diplomatic pressure: South Korea, Taiwan. Disarmament by force: Iraq Other States that ended serious nuclear programs: Libya, Argentina (?) Switzerland, Sweden

Causes of Nuclear Proliferation

Supply Side aspect of proliferation: the technical capability to develop nuclear weapons Demand Side: government's motivation to develop the weapons.

THAAD Opponents

THAAD has limited military utility Its deployment will not only harm relations with China, but also pit China and Russia against South Korea while strengthening their ties with North Korea. The deployment of THAAD as a prelude to the S.K. joining a U.S.-led theater missile defense system, which could in turn revive a new Cold War structure in Northeast Asia.

THAAD

Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) systems. designed to protect primarily U.S. military personnel and facilities deployed in South Korea, including the southern part of the peninsula. It has caused immense external and internal repercussions in South Korea

US governments' efforts to prevent proliferation

The Baruch Plan 1946 (Truman) (International control of atomic energy, peaceful and military) - Atoms for Peace 1953 (Eisenhower) (Providing assistance to other countries in the peaceful uses of atomic energy) - The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty 1968

Norms and N.K. Nukes

The Regime highly values history, face and honor. Extremely closed society The education is centered on legitimatizing the ideology and the identity of the regime. As it has lost its ideological and economic competition vis-à-vis South Korea, it has been putting more values to the military power, especially nukes for the legitimacy of the regime. Nuclear crisis => external pressure => increasing a symbolic value of nukes

Rise of China

The Rise of China is a geopolitical issue • the emergence of new great powers has invariably been destabilizing geopolitically. They convert their new- found economic muscle into the military clout. China and US are on a collision course in East Asia. They seek to acquire the global power projection capabilities.

Strategies to Fight Provinces

The U.S. will need more military bases in many remote parts of the world. • Work with its allies. • Strengthen the states: • offer to help these countries improve their administrative capacity • assist them in securing their borders by building barriers, improving surveillance, and training border troops.

US Unipolarity

The United States has been the world's sole great power after the Cold War (it is unipolar). • Structural reasons (hard power) - Overwhelming military spending: close to half of global military expenditures - Unmatched Power projection capabilities: a blue-water navy. - strategic nuclear weapons: strategic bombers, ICBM, SLBM • US dominance of soft powers (culture, diplomacy, etc.) is a secondary factor.

How War on Terror Was Framed.

The War on Terror was something even more fundamental than the lives of American citizens: the survival of democracy at home. . A foreign policy based on "moral clarity" =>The only solution was to bring freedom to them.

US BMD Clinton

The administration passed the National Missile Defense Act in January 1999. • This Act committed the US to deploying a NMD shield 'as soon as technologically possible'. • But US maintained its adherence to the ABM treaty.

Limits of Victim Russia Perspective

The annexation of Crimea hardly seems like a defensive move. • There was no imminent risk that NATO would establish military bases on the peninsula. There was hardly an objective, or material, threat to Russia's national security emanating from its western flank.

Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

The central nuclear limits of the JCPOA are physical restrictions on Iran's ability to produce fissile material for nuclear weapons (either separated plutonium or enriched uranium) at its declared nuclear facilities. If fully implemented, it will effectively prevent Iran from producing fissile material for at least 10 to 15 years.

The Kargil War

The crisis was finally defused by a combination of Indian battlefield successes and US diplomatic intervention, including a White House visit by Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in early July.

Layne's Beliefs on Unipolar Durability

The distribution of power in the international system no longer is unipolar. 2008-09 Great Recession has vindicated the the US decline (the economic and fiscal drivers of US decline). - 2008 financial crisis: the death knell of US predominance.

Rhetorical Coercion

The dominance of the War on Terror narrowed the space for debate over foreign policy and led many Democrats to hold their tongues they had been left without access to the rhetorical materials needed to craft an acceptable rebuttal.

Why is it difficult to separate compliance with rules from debates over fairness

The international system lacks judicial and enforcement mechanisms that are as legitimate and effective as those in well-governed states. The security council is supposed to be the authorizer of legitimate uses of force. Yet the council is a highly politicized body.

The Arab Spring 2011

The oil market became more volatile, with long periods of low prices. • Globalization brought new ideas about the relationship b/w government and the governed. • The frustrations and desire for political change finally exploded in the Arab Spring of 2011 Toppling regimes in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen • It resulted in civil wars, ISIS, and regional instabilities.

Cohen and Miller's Conclusion on Israel

The policy of opacity should be loosened so that Israel can become both a more responsible and more legitimate nuclear state- and be perceived as such by the international community. Altering its present course would significantly increase the support Israel now receives in the international community.

Preemptive Attack (Doves)

The preemptive attack can destabilize the situation. A temptation to attack first would be increased. It would increase the chance of escalation for miscalculation and organizational mistakes. This plan will further induce more arms race in the Korean Peninsula.

Problem of Collapism

The problem is not just that they failed to predict, but they led U.S. to make and implement counterproductive, potentially very dangerous, policies. Choi: the North Korean quagmire will endure whether we imagine its collapse or not, so waiting and preparing for North Korea's collapse is a terrible idea.

Consequences of Nuclear ambiguity

The result of Israel's policy has been the construction of a de facto deterrence posture without issuing any overt nuclear threats, while denying, in fact, the very existence of its nuclear capability. Israel seems to have achieved the enviable position of enjoying all the presumed benefits of nuclear deterrence without incurring any of its liabilities The ambiguity has also eased the concerns of Israel's allies, especially the United States. Without a declared Israeli nuclear posture, there is no need fully and publicly to address the question of how such a posture might impinge on U.S. interests. It fosters the creation of a climate of secrecy that undermines democratic principles and practices.

Troublemaker Russia

The ruling elite in the Kremlin stirs up trouble abroad to maintain control at home. • Kramer (2014) - His actions reflect a worried authoritarian willing to resort to any means necessary to stay in power. - His foreign policy is, in many ways, an extension of his domestic policy. a. To compensate for its weaknesses in other areas (including the economy)'. to create a rally-around- the-flag effect, stir up nationalistic support b. Putin and his entourage wants to maintain weak and vulnerable neighbors for the simple purpose of self-enrichment.

Nixon-Meir pact,

The secret accord between Israeli Prime Minister Golda Meir and U.S. President Richard Nixon. The information came out in recently declassified memos by Nixon's national security adviser, Henry Kissinger. 'As long as Israel did not advertise its possession of nuclear weapons by publicly declaring or testing them, the United States would tolerate and shield Israel's nuclear program.'

Benefits of Leadership

The security guarantees provide leverage to U.S. It prevents U.S. allies from transferring military technologies and production techniques to potential rivals. Gives a more favorable economic deal. Help build institutions favorable to U.S. (the institutions, norms, rules, and standards of legitimacy that it uses to constrain others are largely of U.S.'s own creation.)

Solutions to NPT and Ambiguity

The solution to the problem of nuclear proliferation, then, is not better technical arrangements to prevent the spread of hardware, but the creation of a worldwide political climate in which acquiring and relying on nuclear weapons will become unacceptable. A commitment by the superpowers to delegitimize nuclear weapons, as represented by the idea of a comprehensive test ban could be a move in this direction.

Origins of Isralei Nukes

The very birth of Israel as a Jewish state is intimately linked to the holocaust, the most traumatic event of Jewish history. The continued Arab refusal to recognize Israel's right to exist, and the sense of being an outcast state, have reinforced the Israeli tendency to think in worst-case scenarios.

Nuclear Ambiguity and NPT

These countries possess the technical and industrial infrastructure to enable them to produce nuclear weapons, but at the same time they assiduously refrain from publicly expressing any interest in acquiring such weapons. The NPT thus operates within a framework that conceptually undermines its very goal. The NPT views nuclear proliferation as an either/or proposition: countries either possess nuclear weapons, and make their possession public, or countries do not acquire nuclear weapons, and make public their intentions not to do so. The Israeli and Iranian instances shows how irrelevant the NPT thresholds have become.

Israel's sense of insecurity

This fundamental sense of insecurity predisposes Jerusalem to seek absolute security. Israel's nuclear project was conceived for psychological comfort in face of the unthinkable quintessence of all Jewish and Israeli fears: a second Holocaust.

Nuclear Weapons

Tremendously powerful than other weapons The most powerful weapons ever invented (the destructive power is theoretically limitless)

Social Competition

Tries to equal or surpass the dominant group in the area on which its claims to superior status rest. If elite group boundaries are impermeable to new members, the lower-status group may strive for equal or superior status through a strategy of social competition. In international relations, where status is in large part based on military and economic power, Indicators of social competition include - arms racing, rivalry over spheres of influence, military demonstrations, or military intervention against a smaller power geopolitical rivalry.

The Danger of Temptation to Expand

U.S. massive global military presence feeds a dangerous expansion of interests that results in young Americans dying in battles for other nations' causes. The overall pattern of intervention would look "unrestrained" only in terms of frequency, not cost. The main problem with the argument is that it essentially boils down to one case: Iraq.

Retrenchment

U.S. should curtail or eliminate its overseas military presence, dramatically reduce its global security commitments, and minimize or eschew its efforts to foster and lead the liberal institutional order. The high and rising costs of engagement dwarf its benefits U.S. power is declining relative to potential rivals U.S. allies can afford to defend themselves, thus should no longer be subsidized. => Retrenchment will not only save blood and treasure but also result in a more secure America.

US Counterterrorism Strategy

US adapted its military and its intelligence and law enforcement agencies to the tasks of counterterrorism and counterinsurgency. The U.S. military and intelligence campaign to capture or kill al Qaeda's core leadership through drone strikes and Special Forces raids

Bargaining Outcomes (US and others)

US and International Community: They won limits on the scale and scope of these activities. And unprecedented verification and enforcement modalities.

It really resembles the nuclear arms race during the early Cold War.

US believes any moves toward a treaty might undermine its presumed superiority in the field of cyber weaponry and robotics. US fears that Moscow and Beijing would exploit a global regulation of military activity on the Web.

China's Low Incentive to Expand

US would never have borne the burden it did had policymakers not faced the challenge of balancing the Soviet Union, • Today, China faces nothing like the Cold War pressures that led the United States to invest so much in its military

Danger of Entrapment

United States commitments might drag it into an unnecessary shooting war. Brooks et al.: Most alliance agreements are written to protect the allies from entrapment e.g. The United States-Taiwan relationship George W. Bush's dual deterrence: deterring China from an unprovoked attack, but also deterring Taiwan from provocative moves toward independence that might give Beijing cause to resort to force.

Mordechai Vanunu's revelations

Vanunu's information in October 1986 said that over the past 20 years, Israel had 100 to 200 nuclear devices.

How much is enough for Deterrance stability?

Virtual Nuclear Deterrence: even unassembled nuclear weapons can deter Minimum Deterrence: few dozes would be enough (Waltz) Mutual Assured Destruction: having a second strike capability is important. Nuclear War Fighting: requiring nuclear battlefield options

Hard Balancing

Waltz and Layne (Defensive Realists) - overwhelming power repels and leads others to try to balance against it (try to prevent the rise of a hegemon). - We can observes balancing tendencies already taking place' stating that in 'international politics,

Non-use of Nukes during the Cold War

Waltz: nuclear deterrence Nina Tannenwald: nuclear taboo Krepon: a mutual sense of deterrence stability did NOT account for the nonuse of nuclear weapons during the Cold War. - Rather it was due to wise decision-making, cautionary behavior, and good fortune.

War Commitment Problems

War in Response to Exogenously Changing Relative Power Bargaining over Goods That Are A Source of Future Bargaining Power

War with Respect to Bargaining

War is an outcome of failed bargaining Bargaining can fail when there is: - Incomplete information - A commitment problem - Issue indivisibility

We must be realistic (Moon)

We must face the reality that we cannot make North Korea completely dismantle its nuclear weapons and facilities in the short term. Instead, we should seek a moratorium on its nuclear program to prevent further production of nuclear materials in return for U.S. security guarantee -> that could enable Kim to start concentrating on economic development and the transformation of North Korea. (Delury) Siegfried Hecker's step-by-step approach of "freeze, roll-back, and verifiably dismantle''

The Security Model

Weak ones can make alliances with nuclear powers but cannot always believe a promise to defend them, so best to have your own nuclear weapons. Having one's independent deterrent is an important motivation.

Social Creativity

When the status hierarchy is perceived as legitimate or stable, groups may seek prestige in a different area altogether, exercising social creativity. • (1) reevaluating the meaning of a negative characteristic • 2) finding a new dimension on which their group is superior Social creativity entails achieving prestige on a different dimension, such as promoting new norms or a developmental model

Crisis Stability in NEA

While Northeast Asia is known for its instability, the region has displayed no major upheavals overturning the status quo. • This is mainly because of the region-wide deterrence system configured throughout NEA: a.k.a., a hub-and-spoke alliance system and nuclear posturing: US centered alliance with South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan vis-à-vis China, North Korea, and Russia

WMDs and Iraq

Without WMD, Iraq was vulnerable to U.S. coercion and ultimately invasion. • With such weapons, Iraq might deter a U.S. attack or at least substantially raise the costs of fighting.

CMC (BLOCKADE) PROS

a middle course between inaction and at- tack - aggressive enough to communicate firmness of intention, but not so precipitous as a strike. (2) It placed on Khrushchev the burden of choice. (3) No possible military confrontation could be more acceptable to the U.S. than a naval engagement in the Caribbean. (4) This move permitted the U.S. to exploit the threat of subsequent conventional (non-nuclear)

Resolve:

a state's willingness to fight

Rhetorical Coercion:

a strategy that seeks to rhetorically constrain political opponents and maneuver them into public assent to one's preferred terms of debate and ideally to one's policy stance.

Breakout time"

a technical benchmark for measuring enrichment capacity in terms of how long it would take to produce a "significant quantity" of highly enriched uranium, nominally enough for a single nuclear device.

We must be flexible (Moon)

a temporary halt to joint South Korea-U.S. military drills replacement of armistice with a peace treaty allowance of North Korea's peaceful use of atomic energy and space/satellite program normalization of diplomatic relations between North Korea and the United States. We must not exclude these options just because they are being demanded by Pyongyang. What is needed is simply a matter of political will and commitment to its implementation.

Liberal Transition

a transition from crisis stability to general stability. • A liberal transition is a structural process, pacifying the types, magnitudes, and characteristics of inter-state relations so that regional rivals do not immediately push themselves to the brink of war every time there is a crisis. creating a structure in which war costs more than any other means.

Preventive war

a war that is fought with the intention of preventing an adversary from becoming stronger in the future.

Tying Hands

affect later incentives - Burning bridges and boats - Domestic audience costs - International audience costs - Reputational costs

European Unity: Three modes of Coordination

common EU policies, informal coordination, and tacit policy convergence. a. Governments are generally obligated legally to act together in the name of the European Union on many policies.

Liberalism

concern for power can be overridden by economic/political considerations (desire for prosperity, commitment to liberal values) states are not the only significant actors. I.O. and corporations can matter in certain ways.

NPT may have allowed nuclear hedging.

flexibility implicit in NPT definitions of proscribed activities. the narrow focus on International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards NPT's provisions allowing members to engage in fuel-cycle activities

The Problems of GDP

it measures a flow, typically, the value of goods and services produced in a year. - "Gauging an economy by its GDP is like judging a company by its quarterly profits, without ever peeking at its balance-sheet." b. It does not capture negative effects of the economic growth.

disengagement (Three Grand Strategies)

it pays no attention to the maintenance of the international status quo, allowing others to change it in their favor. Isolationism: use of force is limited to guaranteeing the survival of the unipole

Defensive-Dominance (Three Grand Strategies)

it tries to maintain all three components of Global Status Quo. -offshore balancing: intervention to prevent the rise of peer - selective engagement in conflicts in areas of interests - collective security: jointly mange global security

Nuclear hawks:

only when political differences were resolved, could the nuclear arsenals be dismantle. - the real issues are underling conflicts of interests and values, not weapons. Build U.S. offensive capabilities. Diplomacy for resolving political conflicts. But no dialogue to rogue states. Why?

New American Strategy (Nye)

oseph Nye (referring to Eisenhower's conviction) It is essential to preserve the strength of the American economy to undergird our military strength But, it should not lead us into imperial occupation of weak states and ''nation building'' in places that are beyond our limits. A stomach for empire or colonial occupation is one of the important ways in which American political culture differs from that of imperial Britain. Whether worthy of applause or lament, such are our domestic limits. At the same time, universalistic values are also in the nature of our political culture, but we often promote these values best by being what Ronald Reagan called ''a shining city on a hill.''

Saddam's Political Strategy

political strategy was to keep Tehran in check by maintaining some measure of ambiguity over Iraq's WMD. Saddam was willing to run a significant risk of war with the United States not to reveal the truth about his WMD capabilities.

Hard Power (Nye)

power is the ability to influence the behavior of others to get the outcomes you want. • Ways to achieve: a. Hard Power: the ability to use the economic and military might to make others follow your will. - coerce them with threats - induce them with payments

Constructivism

state behavior are shaped by elite beliefs, collective norms and social identities. • Ideas drive state behaviors. International reality is, to a large extent, socially constructed.

Bargaining over Goods That Are A Source of Future Bargaining Power

strategically important pieces of territory and weapons programs. Bargaining Failure

Rationalists on Terrorism

terrorism is the product of failed bargaining Incomplete information about others' plan or resolve to fight - or credibility problems: uncertainty about willingness to abide by agreements

Rational Actor (Policy) Model Assumptions

the actor is the national government. - the action is chosen as a calculated response to a strategic problem. - It selects the action that will maximize strategic goals and objectives.

Capabilities:

the state's physical ability to win

Offensive-Dominance (Three Grand Strategies)

the unipole seeks to revise at least one of the status quo's components in its favor.

Nuclear doves

the weapons are the problem. The unease created by arms race induce political hostility. No real need to fear the other Arms races inevitably end in wars and the alternative was disarmament. Arms control and disarmament through diplomacy and dialogue

Krebs and Lobasz's research goal for Iraq:

to establish the plausibility of an account centered on rhetorical coercion. made possible by the effective fixing of the meaning of September 11 in terms of the War on Terror. • The portrait of Saddam Hussein as a second Hitler and as a terrorist • Framing it as the War on Terror => narrowed the scope for sustainable argument in the public debate over Iraq.

• Imperfect information

uncertainties that both share - - Still a bargaining range!

Offensive realists

war by the strongest power in order to achieve regional hegemony / An attempt to balance by the other powers against the strongest power.

Europe is still a "Invisible Superpower"

• Andrew Moravcsik - A superpower is a political entity that can consistently project military, economic, and soft power transcontinentally. Europe either rivals or surpasses the United States and China in its ability to project a full spectrum of global military, economic, and soft power.

ABM TREATY ARTICLES PARAPHASED

• Article I - Don't deploy a nationwide ABM system, or provide a base for that. • Article II - An ABM system is a system to counter strategic ballistic missiles in flight, currently consisting of interceptor missiles, launchers and radars. • Article III - OK to set up two sites, one around your ICBM field, and one around your capital with no more than 100 fixed launchers each.

Policy Implication of Revisionist Russia

• Containment: The West must take a firm stance and do whatever it can to contain and, if possible, roll back Russia's expanding influence in central Eurasia. - Reinforce their military presence along NATO's eastern flank. -Supply the government in Kiev with weapons and military hardware. - Even consider offering Kiev some form of association with the NATO alliance - Harsher economic and diplomatic sanctions

EU - Ukraine Crisis

• EU dream proved no match for Russia's tanks and so-called little green men. • When Russia invaded Ukraine, the EU had no answer besides sanctions and vague calls for more dialogue.

Offensive Containment (Cronin)

• Neither counterterrorism, nor counter- insurgency, nor conventional warfare is likely to afford Washington a clear-cut victory against ISIS. • The best chance of securing U.S. interests is one of "offensive containment": A combination of limited military tactics and a broad diplomatic strategy to halt ISIS' expansion, isolate the group, and degrade its capabilities. Air Strikes, No Ground Troops Increasing Multilateral Tactics and Strengthening UN

Explaining Russia's Nuclear Behaviors in the post-Cold War

• Offensive Realists: It is a reaction to the US hegemonic expansion to Eurasia. • Defensive Realists: Security Dilemma. • Liberalists and constructivists: the Illiberal characteristics of the current Russian regime.

CMC (INVASION)

• Pros: - The US could not only to remove the missiles but also to rid itself of Castro. - A Navy exercise had long been scheduled. • Cons: - American troops would be forced to confront 20,000 Soviets in the first Cold War case. - practically guaranteeing an equivalent Soviet move against Berlin.

Core mission of the US strategy

• Rather than being sucked into messy peripheral conflicts, US should focus on preventing the emergence of a much less congenial world. • The key is to exploit the advantages of standing on the defensive: challenging a settled status quo is very hard to do. • The chief threat to the world's preeminent power arguably lies within US.

Soft Balancing

• Soft balancing are actions that do not directly challenge US military preponderance, but that use nonmilitary tools to delay, frustrate, and undermine unilateral US military policies. • Non-military tools: - International institutions - economic statecraft, and diplomatic arrangements. • Soft balancing sets the stage for the return of hard balancing in world politics and the

ABM Treaty

• The ABM Treaty had prohibited the development of large-scale, nationwide strategic defenses. - but permitted development of theater missile defenses (short- and medium ballistic missiles) - It was a treaty on weapons that did not fully operate at that time. To reduce arms race instability, thus, decrease the cost of weapons - economic cost of arms races - nuclear test and nuclear fallout to decrease the severity of a war if one happens (Limit the damage of a general war) Arms control would complement deterrence.

Policy Tradeoffs

• Walt: if one of the other perspectives turns out to be more accurate, policies derived from one perspective will completely backfire! If Russia is a revisionist power: - Any attempt at engagement and accommodation will be ineffective at best. If Russia is a status-quo power, containment policies will be counterproductive. • They will complicate efforts to stabilize the situation in Ukraine and exacerbate tensions between Russia and the West. While it might seem intuitive to conclude that a middle way (constainment) is the best approach to deal with Russia, the effects may be less than desirable.

Three components of the Global Status Quo

• territorial arrangements - Conflicts on borders, territorial occupation • international political alignments - International laws & institutions • the global distribution of power. - Alliance, distribution of military forces, nuclear weapons proliferation