Public Opinion

What is the more current view of public opinion? Why are we more optimistic today?

Voters rely on cues- have general knowledge of parties.

Why should government find it prudent to heed public opinion?

-Self-rule in democracy -Public opinion guides government action -Because of upcoming elections and the desire to get elected by potential voters

What aspects of public opinion do political scientists study?

-The sum of all individual opinions for the country as a whole

What is the most typical size of the public opinion poll with a margin of error of 3?

1000

Push polls aren't really polls. Why not?

Bias in wording- searching for a specific response

What are examples of unscientific surveys?

Call-in polls Man on the street Shopping mall polls Polls at political events Google Online Polls Push polls--would you support...if you knew...

Telephone surveys are the most common way of obtaining public opinion. But there are problems with these surveys. What are these problems?

Cell phones, caller ID, too many surveys, response rate( number of successful call/attempts).

What is public opinion?

Citizen's collective attitudes and beliefs about politics and government. Communication from citizens to their government Those opinions held by private persons which government finds it prudent to heed.

Ideally, what three conditions must be met for public opinion to play an important role in public policy.

Citizens need to know what they want, be able to communicate their demands, and have leaders respond.

What are exit polls and what advantage do they have over telephone polls?

Exit poll- asking questions after coming out of voting precinct Advantage over telephone polls- actually find out who voted for who

What other questions should you ask about a survey in order to trust the sample?

How long was the survey in the field? How dealt with cell phones? When was the survey conducted? How many times were respondents called? How was the survey conducted? (phone/internet, person on phone/robocall, in person) Who conducted the survey? Who paid for the survey? Who was interviewed?

Why is averaging a number of poll results a reasonable approach?

If the polls had a large enough sample size and were conducted in a scientific manner, then averaging them will still produce results that are indicative of the average citizen in the population

Why do callers make many attempts to each every number?

Increase chance of answering and getting a response

Why is public opinion important?

It guides government action, influences public policy, gives feedback to politicians. It gives self rule in democracy.

Why do good surveys use both landlines and cell phone respondents?

Larger sample size - can reach more people

What is a margin of (sampling) error and how is it interpreted?

Margin of sampling error Polls say margins of error is 3% or sometimes +/- 3% Means 95% confident the "real" number is within +/- Margin of Error

Poorly worded or poorly ordered questions can lead to what type of error? Why is this important? Be able to assess whether a question will provide valid results.

Measurement error Misleading questions Question order/Framing effect Might lead to response bias

Did the Founding Fathers trust the public? Did early political scientists trust the public?

No/No

What is the framing effect as related to question order?

Previous questions can affect answers to questions later on

Why are responses "weighted" to match gender, age, education, race, Hispanic origin, region and population density? (BB) What evidence do we have that weighting makes a difference in the results?

Responses are weighted to make measures more precise, and to try to correct for biases in initial sample.

What is a sampling frame? Why is it important in assuring the validity of the poll?

The people selected for a poll. It must be large (1,000 people is the standard), and it must be randomly selected.

How do people develop their opinions on candidates and public policy?

They are influenced by family and friends, self interest, race/gender/age, their political party, elite influence, and war and other focusing events.

How the opinions of the public change over time

· Approval ratings (president) · Overall view of government and institutions · Assessments of political knowledge/participation · Demographics

What are the two most important elements in assuring that a public opinion poll sample is trustworthy?

· Must be scientific in sample design (sample size and demographics) ·Question wording is important (shouldn't lead the participant towards a certain stance or opinion)

What do we mean by the bandwagon effect? The Underdog effect? The boomerang effect?

·Bandwagon: if polls say someone will win, people vote for them ·Underdog: if someone is losing, people vote for them ·Boomerang: if someone is winning in the polls you don't vote for them because you don't think you NEED to