SCM 492 Exam 1 CHAPTER 5

If actual demand for a period was 108 and the forecast for that period was 112, what is the forecast error for the period? a. 4 b. -4 c. 110 d. 0

-4

Data Set A1 Period Actual Sales Volume 1 10,000 2 11,400 3 14,550 4 15,050 5 17,250 6 18,500 7 15,700 8 19,500 9 22,200 10 21,550 Using Data Set A1, what would be the forecast for period 5 using the exponential smoothing method? Assume the forecast for period 4 is 14000. Use a smoothing constant of α = 0.4 (Choose the closest answer.) F5= f4 + (a4-f4) a. 15,350 b. 14,575 c. 14,420 d. 15,050

. 14,420

In forecasting, a tracking signal is used to: a. Measure the underlying changes in demand b. To route the products on a different mode of transportation c. Estimate the demand for the next period d. Determine if the forecast bias is within the acceptable control limits

. Determine if the forecast bias is within the acceptable control limits

All of the following are recommended plans of actions for the pandemic and beyond EXCEPT: a. Understand supply chain dynamics b. Identify future demand drivers c. Increase the number of foreign suppliers d. Clean data for future use

. Increase the number of foreign suppliers

Data Set A1 Period Actual Sales Volume 1 10,000 2 11,400 3 14,550 4 15,050 5 17,250 6 18,500 7 15,700 8 19,500 9 22,200 10 21,550 Using Data Set A1, what would be the forecast for period 6 using a three period simple moving average? (Choose the closest answer.) a. 16,933 b. 11,983 c. 14,054 d. 15,617

15,617

Using the actual demand shown in the table below, what is the forecast for June (round to whole number) using a 3-month weighted moving average and the weights 0.2, 0.3, 0.5 (remember how to apply them)? ***(50 x .5) + (48 x .3) + (44 x .2) = 48*** Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May 39 36 40 44 48 50 a. 46 b. 48 c. 52 d. 54

48

The formula for forecast error is calculated by using the equation: a. The average of Actual demand for period t and forecasted demand for period t b. Actual demand for period t minus the forecasted demand for period t c. Actual demand for period t plus the forecasted demand for period t d. Actual demand for period t divided by the forecasted demand for period t

Actual demand for period t minus the forecasted demand for period T

Which of the following is a challenge for widespread application of AI systems? a. Trust in AI systems b. Access to the "right" data c. Talent scarcity d. All of these are correct

All of these

Proper demand forecasting enables _____________________ for businesses to be competitive. a. Stockouts and good responsiveness to market dynamics b. Better planning and utilization of resources c. High inventory costs and increased profits d. Low inventory costs and increased costs of obsolescence

Better planning and utilization of resources

Which forecasting method would use the size of the advertising budget as a variable in the forecasting technique? a. Random variation forecasting b. Time series forecasting c. Business cycle forecasting d. Cause-and-Effect forecasting

Cause-and-Effect forecasting

According to the text, for long-term forecasts, it is recommended that which type of forecasts be used? a. Qualitative b. Combination of both qualitative and qualitative c. Forecasts cannot be developed for the long term d. Quantitative

Combination of both qualitative and qualitative

A company is conducting forecasting that revolves around the global recession and real estate crises. This type of forecasting can be referred to as what component of a time series? a. Trend Variations b. Seasonal Variations c. Cyclical Variations d. Random Variations

Cyclical Variations

Which one of the following is NOT a type of time series forecasting? a. Naïve method b. Exponential smoothing c. Weighted moving average d. Delphi method

Delphi method

Which of the following is NOT a benefit of demand sensing? a. Demand Sensing will likely cut weekly and monthly forecast errors by greater than 10-20 percent for yearly time horizons b. Demand Sensing improves forecast errors of the slow-moving products by 36 percent c. Demand Sensing will create a more static supply chain d. Demand Sensing improves forecast errors of the top moving products by 34 percent

Demand Sensing improves forecast errors of the top moving products by 34 percent

Collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment (CPFR) relies heavily on? a. Firms acting independently b. Firms retaining information c. Firms acting in their own best interest d. Firms sharing information

Firms sharing info

Two methods have been used to produce the following forecasts over the past four months. Which forecast is the best one? Demand Forecast A Forecast B 150 130 180 200 170 180 220 184 180 190 195 180 a. Forecast A b. Forecast B c. They are equally good d. There is not enough information to tell

Forecast A

Which of the following is NOT a benefit of better forecasts? a. Smoother production plans b. Improved corporate image among regulators c. Reduced stock outs d. Improved customer service

Improved corporate image among regulators

Which type of forecasting technique would a firm likely use when launching a new product and historical data does not exist? a. Time Series b. Qualitative c. Associative d. Quantitative

Qualitative

According to the text, which of the following is NOT one of the challenges for CPFR? a. Difficulty making internal changes b. Trust c. Sophisticated forecasting algorithms d. Employee education

Sophisticated forecasting algorithms

The impact of poor communication and inaccurate forecasts along the supply chain can result in: a. Enhanced consumer's risk b. Reverse Logistics c. Greater economies of scale d. The bullwhip effect

The bullwhip effect

Which of the following are components of a time series forecast? a. Population growth, cultural changes, and income shifts b. Seasonal income, a business variations c. Random, quantitative and natural variations d. Trend, cyclical and random variations

Trend, cyclical and random variations