AE 6373: Advanced Design Methods, Exam 2
Present Equivalent (PE)
PE(i) = Sigma (from t=0 to n) of F_t (1 + t)^-t [Module 14, Pg 9]
Load Factor
Percentage of seats filled with fare paying passengers [Module 14, Pg 54]
Field
Quantity(s) having value(s) at each point in a physical space and time [Module 12, Pg ?]
Economic mission
- A representative mission used to estimate operating costs a priori - Less demanding than aircraft design mission in terms of range
Critical Technology Elements (CTE)
- A technology element is critical if the system being acquired depends on the technology element to meet operational requirements withing cost/schedule limits and if the technology element or its application is either new or novel or in an area that poses major technological risk during detailed design and demonstration [Module 11, Pg 16]
S-curve
- A technology will take an amount of time and effort before significant growth in benefit - A technology will have a maximum benefit after a period of time, where further time and effort will not be as effective. - Looks like an s or a sigmoid function. [Module 13, Pg 47-48]
Types of Utility Theory
- Additive: Adds all attributes together, doesn't account for not being independent - Expected: Multiplying expect utility by probability -Multi-attribute: Honestly, don't know [Module 9, Pg 14-16]
Brainstorming (List M&P Tools)
- Affinity Diagram - Interrelationship Diagraph [Module 8, Pg 37]
Seven Management and Planning Tools
- Affinity Diagram: Creative method of loosely grouping issues using a bottom-up approach - Tree Diagram - Logical method of decomposing a problem or solution using a top-down approach - Interrelationship Diagraph - Graphical tool determining importance by drawing lines of cause and effect - Matrix Diagram, Prioritization Matrix - Logical method of relating and ranking issues and alternatives - Process Decision Program Chart - Creative method to map alternatives with associated barriers - Activity Network: Flowchart tools to compare alternative processes and reduce slack time [Module 8, Pg 30]
Motivation for TIES
- Aggressive economic and performance objectives that cannot be met by current technologies - Focus on "the bottom line"
Airline ROI
- Airline ROI vs Price [Module 14, Pg 3]
Airline Indirect Costs
- Airport gate fees -Ground handling costs - Facility costs [Module 14, Pg 52]
Life Cycle Cost
- All costs incurred during the entire life cycle of a product from its definition through production and operation, to phase out and/or disposal. - Life Cycle Cost = Manufacturer (RDT&E + Production) + Airlines (Operating Costs)
Components of Decision
- Alternatives - Criteria - Preference - Cause and Effect [Module 7, Pg 13]
TRL 4-6
- Application of technology in a component / breadboard level - Utilized in relevant enviornement - Usually done by NASA / DARPA / similar organization - Often the pitfall of technologies, requires funding [Module 11, Pg 5]
TRL 7-9
- Application of technology on real systems - From prototype all the way to complete application. - Done by industry, Boeing / Lockheed [Module 11, Pg 5]
Technology Need Value
- Assessment of expected performance of advancement to success of future system [Module 11, Pg 9]
TRL 1 - 3
- Basic Research up unto characteristic proof of concept - Usually done at the University level [Module 11, Pg 5]
Pareto Frontier
- Collection of non-dominated solution: There exists no solution that is better than all other solutions for the given criteria. [Module 7, Pg 23]
Prioritization Matrix
- Compare trade-off between customer requirements - 1/9, 1/3, 1, 3, 9 - Mirrored [Module 8, Pg 35]
Rooms of the QFD
- Customer Requirement, or "Whats" - Engineering Characteristics, or "Hows" - Relationship Matrix, correlation between "Whats" and "Hows" - Correlation Matrix, identifies relationships within "Hows", and sometimes also within "Whats" - Importance rating, importance of each customer requirement - Absolute Importance, multiplied importance raiting by relationship matrix - Relative Importance, absolute importance scaled to a sum of 100 - Customer Assessment, compares competition products against customer requirements. - Technical Assessment, compares competition products against engineering characteristics. - Technical Difficulty, subjective scale for how easy to achieve technical goals - Target Values, expected values for engineering characteristics [Module 8, Pg 17-23]
Elements of SP2
- Definition of top level needs or requirements - Description of the information desired to facilitate decision making (schedule, budget, source of funding, risk, etc.) - Decomposition of the needs to the appropriate level of abstraction - Qualitatively related each level of the decomposition through a series of planning matrices - Definition of a quantitative scale for each level of decomposition and translation to quantitative scales - Identification of the appropriate domain area experts for each level of the decomposition to provide necessary information [Module 10, Pg 16]
Evaluation Criteria
- Derived from requirements - Mapped to metrics [Module 7, Pg 5]
Multi-Objective Decision Making (MODM)
- Design the best alternative based on a consideration of the various interactions between design constraints which best satisfy the decision maker - Used for product design (synthesizing alternatives based on prioritized objectives) [Module 7, Pg 27-28]
Multi-Attribute Decision Making (MADM)
- Determines best alternative based on a a multi-tribute utility function that is closest to a hypothetical ideal solution - Used for product selection (selecting from a menu or catalogue) [Module 7, Pg 27-28]
Airline Operating Cost
- Direct - Indirect - Total [Module 14, Pg 3]
Prediction Profile
- Displaces prediction traces for each X variable (Predicted responses as one variable is changed while the others are held constant) - Traces update as you change other variables [Module 13, Pg 28]
Generic Top-Down Decision Process
- Establish the Need - Define the Problem - Establish the Value - Generate Alternatives - Evaluate Alternatives - Make a Decision [Module 7, Pg 3]
TIES: Define Concept Space
- Establish the concept space that may fulfill customer requirements and establish a datum point for feasibility investigation. - Define Alternatives Space -> Define Design Space - Develop Design of Experiments [Module 13, Pg 10]
Pugh Evaluation Matrix
- Evaluate alternatives against each other - Identifies baseline datum point, compares others using + / S / - - Maps qualitative data to quantities values [Module 9, Pg 4]
Strategic Portfolio Prioritization (SP2)
- Expert-based series of decision matrices - Related qualitatively though different levels of abstractions - Detailed process for program planning - Qualitative relationships mapped to quantitative scales - Evolution of accepted quality engineering methods [Module 10, Pg 6]
Technology Identification, Evaluation, and Selection (TIES)
- Exploratory Forecasting - Bottom Up - Specific Technologies in Mind - What will it take me to do today to get to where I want to be in the future? [Module 13, Pg 3]
Consistency Index
- Find largest eigen value of matrix - CI = (lambda - n) / (n - 1) - CI = 0 is perfectly consistent - CI / RI for a random index RI should be <= 0.1 [Module 9, Pg 63 - 65]
Capital Investment Period
- First part of a cash-flow diagram - Focused on RDT&E and Production Setup - Ends when Deliveries start [Module 14, Pg 27]
Technology Assessments (TA)
- Formal method based on TRL assessments that introduces a measure of degree of difficulty - Start with Bench marking of current TRL - Move to AD2 [Module 11, Pg 15]
Airline Direct Costs
- Fuel and Oil - Flight Crew - Maintenance - Cost of Ownership (depreciation, insurance and financing) [Module 14, Pg 52]
System Readiness Level (SRL)
- Function of individual TRLs in a system and their subsequent integration points with other technologies - Scale from 0 to 1 [Module 11, Pg 11]
$/RPM
- General measure of profitability - Amount that would have to be charged to each flying passenger to recoup the costs incurred in providing them with transportation on a given economic mission. $/RPM = Total Operating Cost / # Seats * Load Factor * Length of Trip [Module 14, Pg 53-54]
Morphological Matrix
- Identifies possible technological combinations for a system or as a spur to creativity 1) Functionally decompose the existing system 2) For each function, list all the possible ways in which it might be satisfied 3) Examine the matrix for possible new permutations [Module 8, Pg 53]
Methods to assess Readiness
- Individual estimation (SMEs) - Group discussion estimate -Individual-group estimation (see above two) - Calculator Based approaches - Level descriptions, checklists, and/or assessment tools [Module 11, Pg 14]
Decision Making Phases
- Intelligence Phase: Identifying and diagnosing the problem - Design Phase: Generating alternative solutions - Choice Phase: Evaluate alternatives and selecting the best alternative - Implementation Phase; Implementing the decision [Module 7, Pg 20]
Interval Scale vs Ratio Scale
- Interval scale cannot be used for ratios (stress level, degress C or F), no natural zero - Ratio scale can, used to compare magnitudes (length, weight, age) [Module 9, Pg 10 - 11]
Risk Free Rate
- Investment rate with no risk - See US Treasury Bonds [Module 14, Pg 6]
Affinity Diagram
- List everything that is important to the customer - Group similar items together - Bottom up, as compared to Tree Diagram [Module 8, Pg 31-32]
Manufacturing Cash-Flow ROI
- Manufacturer ROI vs Price [Module 14, Pg 3]
Metrics
- Mapped from Evaluation Criteria - Quantifiable and measurable - Has units and weighting factors - Assigned to alternatives through Subject Matter Experts or other analysis [Module 7, Pg 5]
Readiness vs Maturity
- Maturity is architecture independent. - A technology can have a high maturity and readiness, but moving to another architecture will lower readiness. [Module 11, Pg 4]
Research Development Degree of Difficulty (R&D3)
- Measure of difficulty expected to be encountered in the maturation of a particular technology - Central objective of metric is addressing management challenge of deciding appropriate parallel paths to follow in developing an R&D portfolio [Module 11, Pg 8]
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
- Measure of inflation - Simple statistic for the rate of increase of a specific basket of goods and services (food, clothing, housing, etc.) [Module 14, Pg 36]
Technology Readiness Level (TRL)
- Measure of the readiness of a technology for application for a specific architecture [Module 11, Pg 5-6]
Manufacturing Readiness Level (MRL)
- Measure used to assess the maturity of a technology from a manufacturing prospective - Ability to harness the manufacturing, production, quality assurance, and industrial functions to achieve an operational capability that satisfies mission needs. [Module 11, Pg 10]
Interactive Reconfigurable Matrix of Alternatives (TRMA)
- Morph matrix that adapts as you select - Filters low TRL, incompatible combinations [Module 8, Pg 58]
Net Present Value (NPV)
- NPV = Present Value of Benefits - Present Value of Costs - NPV = Sigma (from j=0 to n) of (R_j - C_j) / (1 + i)^j - Worthwhile projects have a NPV > 0 [Module 14, Pg 12]
Technologies for Strategic Decision Making
- Neural networks - System Dynamics - Intelligent Agents - Real Options - Game Theory - Genetic Algorithms [Module 9, Pg 74]
Technology Impact Forecasting (TIF)
- Normative Forecasting - Top Down - No specific technologies in mind - With the specific technologies that I have today, where will I be in the future? [Module 13, Pg 3]
Cost vs Price
- Object/Physics Driven vs Market Driven - Price = Cost +/- Fee or Loss [Module 14, Pg 29]
Decision Making Strategies
- Optimizing: selecting the one as the best alternative if it has the maximum / minimum value of a predefined utility index function - Satisficing: selecting he alternative solution which achieves at least a minimum level of each criteria [Module 7, Pg 13]
Activity Network
- Path of activities that must be performed - Identify critical flow [Module 8, Pg 36]
Joint Probabilistic Decision Making (JPDM)
- Probability of satisfying all (specified) customer needs - Evaluates multiple criteria and probabilistic objective function due to uncertainty - Create scatter plot of Monte Carlo data, evaluate against multiple target values. [Module 9, Pg 67 - 72]
Most Appropriate Decision Making Process
- Problem dependent - Must be found before decision making process proceeds [Module 7, Pg 25]
Evaluation of Alternatives
- Process to decide from among alternatives - Compares alternatives to evaluation criteria - Measured by metrics - Output is rank order of alternatives [Module 7, Pg 4-6]
Learning Curve
- Production Effort = Effort Required to Manufacture the first unit * number of unit ^ learning factor - y = k * x ^ n - n = log(Percent Learning) / Log(2) - Every time you double the number of units produced, the total effort required is reduced by a flat proportion. [Module 14, Pg 45]
Technology Planning Matrices
- Qualitatively relates how technologies and vehicle attributes interact [Module 10, Pg 13]
Figure of Merit Mapping Matrix
- Qualitatively tracks impact of vehicle attributes to overall figures of merit [Module 10, Pg 12]
Aircraft Manufacturing Costs
- RDT&E - Acquisition - Unit [Module 14, Pg 3]
Revenue Passenger Mile (RPM)
- RPM = Passengers * Distance - Related to $/RPM, or Average Yield per Revenue Passenger Mile [Module 14, Pg 53]
Discount Rate
- Rate a firm is willing to burden themselves with now for a future given return. [Module 14, Pg 7]
Analytic Decision Making
- Reach decision by analyzing - Uses step-by-step procedure - Values quantitative information and models - Builds mathematical models and algorithms - Seeks optimal solution [Module 7, Pg 17]
Heuristic Decision Making
- Reach decisions by acting - Uses trial and error - Values experience - Relies on common sense - Seeks completely satisfying solution [Module 7, Pg 17]
Technique for Order Preference by Similarly to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS)
- Selected alternatives should be closest to positive ideal and farthest from negative ideal - Uses relative weights to select best [Module 9, Pg 21]
Return on Investment (ROI)
- Simple measure of profitability - PV = Sigma (from t=1 to n) of F (1 + ROI)^-t = 0 [Module 14, Pg 16]
Traditional Decision Making Methods
- Squeaking Wheel: Cut resources until people complain - Level Funding: Minimize budget perturbations, maintain status quo - Glorious Past: "Once successful, always successful" - White Charger: Whoever last briefed boss wins the money, or who had best presentation - Committee Approach: A committee tells the manager how to allocate resources [Module 7, Pg 7]
Profitable Period
- Stars after the breakeven point. [Module 14, Pg 27]
Capital Recovery Period
- Starts when Deliveries start - Ends when sunk costs are recovered and project starts generating revenue (breakeven point). [Module 14, Pg 27]
SP2 Payoffs
- Structured, traceable, and transparent process - Tailor-able to any desired level of detail -Knowledgeable stakeholders are involved in the process - Solicitation to reduce bias - "What if" games - "Foundation for detailed strategic road mapping and investment prioritization [Module 10, Pg 22]
Quality Function Deployment (QFD)
- Systematic approach of translating a societal need or a military threat to program specific goals - Formal method for capturing user's requirements and mapping them onto product and process attributes - Shows association between features of a product and statements representing the customer requirements - Relates "Whats" to "Hows" [Module 8, Pg 7-12]
Integration Readiness Level (IRL)
- Systematic measurement of the interface of compatible interactions for various technologies - Consistent comparison of the maturity between integration points - 7 Levels [Module 11, Pg 12]
Decision Making
- The act of making up one's mind, judging, or reaching a conclusion - Process of sufficiently reducing uncertainty and doubt about the alternatives to allow a reasonable choice - Process of choosing among alternative courses of action for the purpose of attaining a goal or goals. [Module 7, Pg 12]
Maneuverability
- The characteristics in the design cycle that focus on process capabilities, machine, or facility flexibility, and the overall ability to consistency produce at the required level of cost and quality. [Module 11, Pg 10]
Organization & Ranking
- Tree Diagram - Prioritization Matricies - Matrix Diagram [Module 8, Pg 37]
Technology Readiness Assessment (TRA)
- US DoD metric-based process by SMEs to assess readiness of critical technologies for system implementation - Identifies Critical Technology Elements (CTE) [Module 11, Pg 16]
Types of Decisions
- Unstructured - Semi-structured - Structured [Module 7, Pg 16]
k Factors
- Variables used by analysis tools for calibration purposes - Can be adapted for identifying effects of technologies [Module 13, Pg 50]
Advancement Degree of Difficulty (AD2)
- What is required to advance immature technologies to a level that permits infusion into program withing cost, schedule, and risk constraints. - Likelyhood of occurrence of an adverse event - Cost to ensure events do not occur - The time required to implement the necessary action [Module 11, Pg 8]
TIES: Define the Problem
- What problems are you trying to solve? - Is there a need for it? [Module 13, Pg 7]
Implementation & Process
-Process Decision Program Chart - Activity Network Diagram [Module 8, Pg 37]
Steps in TIES
1) Define the Problem 2) Define Concept Space 3) Modeling and Simulation 4) Investigate Design Space 5) Feasible or Infeasible 6) Identify Technologies 7) Evaluate Technologies 8) Select Technologies [Module 13, Pg 4]
Analytical Hierarchy Process
1) Establish Hierarchy: Decision > Criteria > Alternatives 2) Prioritize Criteria: Based on one-on-one comparisons. How much more important is A than B? 3) Prioritize Alternatives: How much better is C than D in category A? [Module 9, Pg 34 - 54]
TOPSIS Steps
1) Map alternatives to evaluation criteria/attributes 2) Convert qualitative criteria to quantitative using interval scale 3) Normalize attribute by dividing by sqrt of sum of squares. 4) Multiply by relative weighting 5) Identify positive ideal solution and negative ideal solution by finding maximum and minimums of benefits and costs 6) Determine Euclidean distance from positive and negative ideal solutions 7) Identify relative closeness to ideal solution (S* / (S* + S-)) 8) Select alternative with highest value [Module 9, Pg 23 - 29]
Options to Expand Design Space
1) Open design variable ranges 2) Relax constraints 3) Select a different concept space 4) Infuse new technologies [Module 13, Pg 45]
Two Avenues to Multi-Attribute Assessments
1) Subjective Ranking through QFD, Pugh Diagrams, and Multi-Attribute Decision Making (MADM) - Use documents & SMEs to establish mapping - QFD and Pugh Diagrams generate importance weights - MADM guide to final solution 2) Modeling & Simulation (M&S) and joint Probabilistic Design Making (JPDM) - Physics-based models to obtain objective estimates of impacts - Probabilistic analysis captures uncertainty and risk [Module 7, Pg 29]
Tree Diagram
Affinity Diagram but backwards [Module 8, Pg 34]
Strategic Decisions
Concern general direction, long term goals, philosophies and values [Module 7, Pg 14]
Inefficient Design Space
Design Space not located on the Pareto Frontier [Module 7, Pg 24]
More could probably be studied of Module 13
I'm just not doing that right now
Simple Interest
FV = PV (1 + i) ^ t [Module 14, Pg 6]
Compounded Interest
FV = PV (1 + i/n)^nt FV = PVe^(it) when n -> infinity [Module 14, Pg 6]
Functional breakdown vs Physical Breakdown
Functional breakdown allows for comparison across architectures. Flexible. hard to compares a shark and a eagle, though they have the same functions in hunting prey. [Module 8, Pg 55]
Interrelationship Diagraph
Graphically identify relationships between features [Module 8, Pg 33]
Operational Decisions
Everyday decisions supporting tactical decisions, and are often made with little thought and can be pre-programmed, pre-made, or set out clearly in policy manuals [Module 7, Pg 14]
Manufacturer vs Airline Cash Flow
Manufacture investment is over a long period of time, airline investment is a large up front cost. [Module 14, Pg 51]
Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
NPV = 0 = Sigma (from j = 0 to t) of (R_j - C_j) / (1 + IRR)^j - IRR must be higher than firm's discount rate for an investment to be considered [Module 14, Pg 17]
Types of Scales
Nominal: No order, categorical Ordinal: Ordered, but no magnitude, positions in race. Cardinal: Constant scale ordered [Module 9, Pg 9]
Annual Percentage Rate (APR)
Non-compounded interest rate Nominal: simple interest rate Effective: Fee + compound interest [Module 14, Pg 6]
Produce Price Index (PPI)
Similar to CPI, but for producers / industry. [Module 14, Pg 36]
Tactical Decisions
Support strategic decisions and tend to be medium range, medium significant, which moderate consequences [Module 7, Pg 14]
Technology Prioritization Calculator
[Module 10, Pg 9]
