Chapter 3

Demographic Transition Stages

*stage 1* - birth and death rates are both high *stage 2* - transition from high to low death rates, while birth rates are still high - the growth potential is realized, resulting in rapid population growth *stage 3* - transition from high to low birth rates - population growth slows down *stage 4* - death rates are both low

*the Malthusian Perspective* Critique of Malthus

*the assertion that food production could not keep up with population growth* - food wouldn't grow exponentially, whereas humans would - Darwin based his theory of survival of the fittest on Malthus's writings yet explicitly rejected this idea *the conclusion that poverty was an inevitable result of population growth* - somewhat circular in logic - didn't seem to see the social world accurately *the belief that moral restraint was the only acceptable preventative check* others: - not objective - class bias - overemphasized the biology of repoduction - failed to recognize the potential forces of technological changes

Premodern Population Doctrines *St. Thomas Aquinas*

1280 AD implicitly promoted the idea that population growth is an inherently good thing celibacy is not better than marriage and procreation

Premodern Population Doctrines *Ibn Khaldun*

1380 AD his philosophy was that societies evolved and were transformed as part of natural and normal processes not a utopian population growth is inherently good because it increases occupational specialization and raises incomes

Premodern Population Doctrines *Mercantilism*

1500 - 1800 seventeenth and eighteenth centuries witnessed an historically unprecedented trade *(Columbian Exchange)* of food, manufactured goods, people, and disease between the Americas and most of the rest of the world, undertaken largely by European merchants, who had the best ships and deadliest weapons in the world increasing national wealth depends on a growing population that can stimulate export trade provided incentives and penalties to encourage population growth highly supported by demographers of the time, including Graunt ("father of demography/statistics")

Premodern Population Doctrines *Physiocrats*

1700 - 1800 reaction against Mercantilism launched by Quesnay the number of people depends on the means of subsistence wealth of a nation is in land, not people; therefore, population size depends on the wealth of the land, which is stimulated by free trade (laissez-faire) free trade was essential to economic prosperity

Malthus

1798 population grows exponentially, food supply grows arithmetically poverty results in the absence of moral/reproductive restraint

Neo-Malthusian

1800 birth control measures are appropriate checks to population growth

Marx

1844 each society has its own law of population that determines consequences of population growth poverty is not the natural consequence

Premodern Population Doctrines *Artistotle*

340 BC population size should be limited and the use of abortion might be appropriate

Premodern Population Doctrines *St. Augustine*

400 AD Europe converted from paganism to Christianity, which was characterized by a combination of both *pronatalist* and *antinatalist* Christian doctrines abstinence is the preferred way to deal with human sexuality; the second best is to marry and procreate carnal desire is not compatible with spirituality

Premodern Population Doctrines *Cierco*

50 BC population growth was necessary to replace war casualties and to ensure enough people to help colonize new lands population growth necessary to maintain Roman Empire and influence

Social Capillarity

Arsène Dumont's term for the desire of a person to rise on the social scale to increase one's individuality as well as one's personal wealth to ascend the social hierarchy often requires that sacrifices be made Dumont believed that having few or no children was the price you had to pay to have high social status and wealth social aspiration was a root cause of a slowdown in population growth

Rising Interest in Statistics and Demography

Graunt's studies and work caught the attention of the scientific world of seventeenth century Europe much of this interest focused on vital statistics such as birth, death, marriage Sussmilch built on Graunt's work and thought that Plato was wrong and that quantity is better than quality he believed that indefinite improvements in agriculture and industry would postpone overpopulation so far into the future that it wouldn't matter

Notestein's Revamping of Thompson's Theory

Group A --> *incipient decline* the third (final) stage in the demographic transition when a country has moved from having a very high rate of natural increase to having a very low (possibly negative) rate of increase Group B --> *transitional growth* the second (middle) stage of the demographic transition when death rates have dropped but birth rates are still high - during this time, population size increases steadily--this is the essence of the "population explosion" Group C --> *high growth potential* the first stage in the demographic transition, in which a population has a pattern of high birth and death rates

Modern Theories

Malthusian neo-Malthusian Marxian

the Marxian Perspective

Marx and Engels saw the Malthusian point of view as an outrage against humanity their demographic perspective thus arose in reaction to Malthus viewed poverty, hunger, other social ills as the result of socially unjust practices associated with rising capitalism due to low wages, unemployment, poor cannot feed/house children - population growth, according to Marx, is therefore not related to the alleged ignorance or moral inferiority of the poor, but is a consequence of an exploitative economic system - causes of population growth - consequences of population growth - critique of Marx

Malthus Biography

Thomas Malthus 1766 - 1834 wrote "An Essay in the First Principle of Population" first published in 1798 "Principles of Malthus" two hundred years ago were very revolutionary and controversial world population in 1798: 9 million now: 7 billion Malthus wanted to believe in the perfectibility of humans but he argued that people have a natural urge to reproduce

Smith

a Scotsman and one of the first modern economic theorists thought that if people were left to their own devices, what was best for the community as a whole would be produced believed that wealth sprang from the labor applied to the land from this idea sprang the belief that there is a natural harmony between economic growth and population growth felt that population size is determined by the demand for labor, which is, in turn, determined by the productivity of the land

*the Malthusian Perspective* Neo-Malthusians

a person who accepts the basic Malthusian premise that population growth tends to outstrip resources and ruin the environment, but (unlike Malthus) believes that birth control measures are appropriate checks to population growth favor contraception rather than simple reliance on moral restraint however, this open controversy helped to spread knowledge of birth control among people in nineteenth-century England and America

Doctrine

a principle laid down as true and beyond dispute

Secularization

a spirit of autonomy from other worldly powers a sense of responsibility for one's own well-being industrialization and economic development are virtually always accompanied by secularization education is probably the most important potential stimulant to secularization

the Theory of Demographic Transition (DTT) (Book Notes)

a staple in the demographic and social sciences predominated demographic thinking in the past half century first emerged in 1929 by Thompson that gained little traction due to little charisma Notestein came back to Thompson's thesis in 1945 and revamped it to seem more interesting between the mid-1940s and the late 1960s, rapid population growth became a worldwide concern, and demographers devoted a great deal of time to the demographic transition perspective explanations for why and how countries pass through the transition were derived from the concept of *modernization*

Theory

a system of assumptions, accepted principles, and rules of procedure devised to analyze, predict, or otherwise explain a set of phenomena theories replace doctrine when new, systematically collected information (censuses and other sources) become available, allowing people to question old ideas and formulate new ones

Wealth Flow

a term coined by Caldwell to refer to the intergenerational transfer of income from children to parents

Positive Checks

a term used by Malthus to refer to factors (essentially mortality) that limit the size of human populations by "weakening" or "destroying" the human frame causes of death reduce population size by increasing the mortality rate, reducing life expectancy--by events such as famine, disease, war, etc.

Demographic Perspective

a way of relating basic information to theories about how the world operates demographically will guide you through the sometimes tangled relationships between population factors (growth, distribution, age structure, etc.) and the rest of what is going on in society core: technical, biological, statistical outer wrapping: real events of the social world two core questions need to be answered beforehand: - what are the causes of population change? - what are the consequences of population change?

Moral Restraint

according to Malthus, the avoidance of sexual intercourse prior to marriage and the delay of marriage until a man can afford all the children his wife might bear a desirable preventive check on population growth postponing marriage, remaining chaste if potential food supplies could not keep up with population growth, a major consequence would be poverty and starvation he believed (fear of) poverty was a stimulus for action that could lift people out of misery - however, Malthus accepted poverty, proposed late marriage, abstinence only for the working and poor classes

Was Malthus right?

after 1800: a population explosion and resource crashes: - huge growth; US dust bowl, soil erosion, crop failures - Russia: wheat famines - Africa: famines, wars - numerous places: environmental degradation and disastrous floods--so was he right?

Pronatalist

an attitude, doctrine, or policy that favors a high birth rate also known as "populationist"

Capitalism

an economic system in which the means of production, distribution, and exchange of wealth are maintained chiefly by private individuals or corporations, as contrasted to government ownership consequences: overpopulation and poverty

Socialism

an economic system whereby the community as a whole (the government, etc.) owns the means of production a social system that minimizes social stratification population growth is readily absorbed by the economy with no side effects

Mill

an extremely influential writer of the nineteenth century accepted the Malthusian calculations about the potential for population growth to outstrip food production, but he was more optimistic about human nature his basic thesis was that the standard of living is a major determinant of fertility levels believed that people could be and should be free to pursue their own goals in life the ideal state is that in which all members of a society are economically comfortable if social and economic development are to occur, there must be a sudden increase in income, which could give rise to a new standard of living for a whole generation, thus allowing productivity to outdistance population growth was convinced that an important ingredient in the transformation to a non-growing population is that women do not want as many children as men do, and if they are allowed to voice their opinions, the birth rate will decline a fear a social slippage motivated people to limit fertility

Spatial Demography

any analysis of population data that takes location into account by using georeferenced information

Rational Choice Theory

any theory based on the idea that human behavior is the result of individuals making calculated cost-benefit analyses about how to act a popular individual-level perspective on how people actually respond to the social and economic changes taking place around them

Antinatalist

based on an ideological position that discourages childbearing

*the Malthusian Perspective* Causes of Population Growth

believed human beings (like plants and animals) are "impelled" to increase the population of the species by what he called a powerful "instinct," the urge to reproduce thought that if it weren't for the *checks to growth,* human beings would multiply to an "incalculable" number in only a few thousand years

*the Malthusian Perspective* Consequences of Population Growth

believed that a natural consequence of population growth was poverty since people naturally want to reproduce but food supply can't keep up increased food resources led to higher population, higher population led to lower wages, lower wages led to poverty and having to work harder and longer to cultivate the land, this poverty led to decreased population, the longer and harder work led to more available food, and the cycle continues

*the Malthusian Perspective* Avoiding the Consequences

believed that people would rather avoid pain than enjoy pleasure believed that rational people would then wait until they were sure they could support a family before getting married the only way to break this cycle was to change human nature the major consequence of population growth is poverty although, this stimulus motivates people to stay out of that

Ethnocentric

characterized by a belief in the inherent superiority of one's own group and culture accompanied by a feeling of contempt for other groups and cultures

The Theory of Demographic Change and Response Asks What Happens at the Micro (Family) Level:

death rates decline and more children survive parents work harder, put children to work not enough local jobs to go around as children grow up, so they migrate elsewhere when they get to urban areas, in particular, they are forced to think about family size and wind up limiting the number of children

the Prelude to Malthus *Condorcet*

eighteenth century the goodness of the common person was championed Condorcet devoted his life to mathematics and philosophy and wrote ideas on government that were way ahead of his time (universal education, women's rights, freedom of thought and expression, etc.) his optimism was based on his belief that technological progress has no limits saw prosperity and population growth increasing hand in hand, and if the limits to growth were ever reached, the final solution would be birth control

Theory of the Demographic Transition (DTT) (Class Notes)

emphasizes the importance of economic and social development leads first to a decline in mortality and then to a commensurate decline in fertility based on the experience of the developed nations, and derived from the modernization theory

the Essays of Hume and Wallace

essays written on population growth in the eighteenth century sparked considerable debate and controversy wrote on the question of whether a large population was a sign of societal health

Checks to Growth

factors that, according to Malthus, keep population from growing in size, including *positive* and *preventative/negative checks* *means of subsistence*

Premodern Population Doctrines *Confucius*

fifth century BC discussed the relationship between population and resources suggested that the government should move people from overpopulated to underpopulated areas population growth is good, but governments should maintain a balance between population and resources

the Core Principles of Malthus

food is necessary for human existence but human populations can grow faster than the power of the earth to produce subsistence - population, unchecked, grows at a geometric (exponential) rate - food increases at an arithmetic rate; land is finite population growth and food supply potential are unequal but must be equal - but humans tend to not limit population size voluntarily

Reasons for Stage 2: Early Expanding

improvements in medical care improvements in sanitation and water supply quality and quantity of food produced improves transport and communications improve movements of food and medical supplies decrease in infant mortality

Negative/Preventative Checks

in Malthus's writings, any limits to birth, among which Malthus himself preferred *moral restraint* any kind of birth control only acceptable means of preventing a birth was to exercise moral restraint limit population growth by reducing the birth rate, or fertility

Reasons for Stage 3: Late Expanding

increased access to contraception lower infant mortality rates so less need for bigger families industrialization and mechanization means fewer laborers required as wealth increases, desire for material possessions takes over the desire for large families equality of women means they can follow a career rather than just staying at home

Critique of the Demographic Transition Theory

it has been argued that the concept underlying the demographic transition is that population stability *(homeostasis)* is the normal state of affairs in human societies and that change (the "transition") is what requires explanation cannot predict levels of mortality or fertility or the timing of the fertility decline - this is because the initial explanation for the demographic behavior during the transition tended to be *ethnocentric* basic assumption of DTT: what happened today for MDRs would happen tomorrow in LDRs

Is this basic assumption of DTT true?

it took more than 100 years for most MDRs to bring down their mortality to the current low level but in LDRs, the same amount of mortality drop occurred in only about 30 years in LDRs: Mortality transition without development although most countries have seen decline in birth rates since 1970s, some countries still keep high fertility rates

Dumont

late nineteenth century French demographer felt he had discovered a new principle of population called *social capillarity* "the bulk of the population, therefore, not only strove to ascend politically, economically, socially, and intellectually, but experienced an imperative urge to climb and a palsying fear of descent"

Durkheim

late nineteenth century French sociologist based an entire social theory on the consequences of population growth proposed that population growth leads to greater societal specialization because the struggle for existence is more acute when there are more people growth creates competition for society's resources, and in order to improve their advantage in the struggle, people specialize derived from Darwin's theory of evolution

Reasons for Stage 1: High Functioning

little access to birth control many children die in infancy so parents have more to compensate children are needed to work on the land some religions encourage large families death rates are high due to disease, famine, poor diet, poor hygiene, little medical science

Modernization Theory Underlies the Demographic Transition

macro-level theory that sees human actors as being buffeted by changing social institutions. individuals did not deliberately lower their risk of death to precipitate the modern decline in mortality society-wide increases in income and improved public health infrastructure brought about this change

the Marxian Perspective *Causes of Population Growth*

never directly addressed the issue of why and how populations grew were in favor of men and women's equal rights and saw no harm in preventing birth viewed human activity as the product of a particular social and economic environment pertaining to the theories of Karl Marx, which reject Malthusian theory and argue instead that each society at each point in history has its own law of population that determines the consequences of population growth *capitalism* and *socialism*

Notes on the Marxian Perspective

noted a difference between laborers' productivity and wage levels: monetary surplus - workers were paid less than the value of their work (productivity) noted capitalist class benefitted from monetary wage surpluses, also mechanized production: further increased their monetary gains under this situation, wage levels go down and mechanization leads to unemployment

the Marxian Perspective *Critique of Marx*

offered no guidelines for the transition period into a Marxian society in reality, Marxian societies and populations suffered he denied a population problem among socialist societies, yet this was not true in reality some evidences against their theory how to organize the society well to provide jobs for every labor you have to feed children first before they become productive labors

Main Points of Malthus

people have a natural urge to reproduce population increases geometrically; food supply increases linearly; eventually, food supply would not be able to catch up with the population increase a natural consequence of population growth is poverty in order to maintain a balance between food supply and population growth, measures must be taken to restrain population growth people should be moral restraint to control their fertility. or, population would be cut by starvation, wars, diseases

Cohort

people who share something in common in demography, this is most often the year (or grouped years) of birth represent a potential force for change first popularized by Ryder in the 1960s with the concept of *demographic metabolism*

the Malthusian Perspective

pertaining to the theories of Malthus, which state that population tends to increase at a geometric rate, while the means of subsistence increase at an arithmetic rate, resulting in an inadequate supply of the goods supporting life, unless a catastrophe occurs to reduce (check) the population or the increase of population is checked by sexual restraint potential increase in food supply can't keep up with population growth a major consequence is poverty - fear of poverty is the stimulus for action that can lift people out of misery *principle of population* revised his presentation of the principle of population seven times during his life the most influential work relating population growth to its social consequences causes of population growth consequences of population growth avoiding the consequences critique of Malthus neo-Malthusians

Homeostasis

population stability, meaning that the birth and death rates are equal and the age structure is unchanging

Reasons for Stage 4: Low Fluctuating

rates fluctuate with 'baby booms' and epidemics of illnesses and diseases

Means of Subsistence

the amount of resources, especially food, available to a population limited by the amount of land available, the "arts" or technology that could be applied to the land, and "social organization" or land ownership patterns a cornerstone of his argument is that populations tend to grow more rapidly than the food supply does, since population has the potential for growing geometrically, while food production (incorrectly) could only be increased arithmetically

the Marxian Perspective *Consequences of Population Growth*

rejected Malthus's idea that resources could not grow as rapidly as population, since they saw no reason to suspect that science and technology could not increase the availability of food and other goods at least as quickly as the population grew flatly rejected the idea that poverty can be blamed on the poor--Engels argued that whatever population pressure existed in society was really pressure against the means of employment rather than against the means of subsistence capitalism causes poverty argued that there is enough wealth to end poverty thought that capitalism worked by using the labor of the working classes to earn profits to buy machines that would replace the laborers which, in turn, would lead to unemployment and poverty in the Malthusian view, the consequences of population growth that Malthus discussed were really the consequences of a capitalist society overpopulation in a capitalist society was thought to be a result of the capitalists' desire for an industrial reserve army that would keep wages low through competition for jobs, and, at the same time, would force workers to be more productive in in order to keep their jobs

Premodern Population Doctrines

reproduction was highly valued because it meant replacing the people that were lost due to universally high mortality population growth was highly valued in ancient cultures ("be fruitful and multiply") Confucius Plato Artistotle Cierco St. Augustine St. Thomas Aquinas Ibn Khaldun Mercantilism Physiocrats

Fertility Transition

shift from "natural" fertility (high levels of fertility) to fertility limitation (low levels of fertility) the (usual) decline in mortality leads people to be careful about how many children they have, since the children have a greater chance of surviving women also have greater hope of not dying in childbirth and being able to see their children into adulthood and even do something with their life afterwards

Reformulation of the Demographic Transition Theory *European Fertility Project*

students in the early 1960s noticed a puzzling decline in Europe's fertility rates explanations were economic development and *secularization* once marital fertility had dropped by as little as 10% in a region, the decline spread rapidly ("tipping point") realized it was based on cultural factors rather than just socioeconomic ones *- spatial demography* the idea of family planning seemed to spread quickly until it ran into a language barrier why did people rethink how many children they want to have? *rational choice theory* the process of modernization eventually results in the tearing apart of large, extended family units into smaller, nuclear units that are economically and emotionally self-sufficient - children begin to cost parents more the principal ingredient in the reformulation of the demographic transition perspective is to add "ideational" factors to "demand" factors as the likely causes of demographic change, especially changes in fertility

the Demographic Transition Is Really a Set of Transitions

taken together, this set of transitions help us understand not just causes but the consequences of population change *health and mortality transition* *fertility transition* *age transition* *migration transition* *urban transition* *family and household transition*

the Theory of Demographic Change and Response

the EFP focused on explaining regional differences in fertility declines, which was an important theoretical development but not a comprehensive one because it only partially dealt with a central issue of the demographic transition theory: how can a mortality decline lead to a fertility decline? Davis argued that when mortality declines, there's greater pressure on family resources, leading to personal demographic change and goals (not national) Davis also argued that the response that individuals make to the population pressured created by more members joining their ranks is determined by the means available by working harder or migrating Davis thought that the prospect of rising prosperity will most often motivate people to find the means to limit the number of children they have one of Davis's most important contributions to our demographic perspective is that he "seems to rely on an implicit model of the actor who makes everyday interpretations of perceived environmental changes"

Principle of Population

the Malthusian theory that human population increases geometrically whereas the available food supply increases only arithmetically, leading constantly to "misery" *background* Malthus was against two popular thoughts in England at the time: - a large population is good for the nation's economy - growth in population serves as an index of the nation's health

Review

the decline of fertility happened later and also slower than the decline of mortality rapid growth happened first in European countries and countries with European origins after the slowing down of the growth in European countries, rapid growth spread to other countries, especially after WWII

Columbian Exchange

the exchange of food, products, people, and diseases between Europe and the Americas as a result of explorations by Columbus and others

Demographic Metabolism

the ongoing replacement of people at each age in every society people have always recognized this rearing in most societies involved tamping down innovative behavior of the young before it upset the social order when the size of these successive cohorts increases, this "tamping down" becomes much harder changes in birth rate alter the size of cohorts, which in turn produces social changes Easterlin has shown that relative cohort size cam then feed back to influence the birth rate itself

Easterlin Relative Cohort Size Hypothesis

the perspective that fertility is influenced less by absolute levels of income than by relative levels of well-being produced by generational changes in cohort size assumes that the standard of living you experience in late childhood is the base from which you evaluate your chances as an adult this thesis presents a model of society in which demographic change and economic change are closely interrelated

Physiocratic

the philosophy that the real wealth of a nation is in the land, not the number of people

Modernization

the process of societal development involving urbanization, industrialization, rising standards of living, better education, and improved health that is typically associated with a "Western" lifestyle and worldview and was the basis for early explanations of the demographic transition early human societies were generally based on tradition going from this primitive societal organization to a more modern one involved a transition macro-level theory that says society and social institutions are improving, so there's economic changes and competition that continue to perpetuate the change provided the vehicle that moved the demographic transition from a mere description of events to a demographic perspective birth rates eventually declined, it was argued, as the importance of family life was diminished by industrial and urban life, thus weakening the pressure for large families

Demographic Transition

the process whereby a country moves from high birth rates and high death rates to low birth and low death rates with an interstitial spurt in population growth, accompanied by a set of other transitions, including the migration transition, age transition, urban transition, and family and household transition demographic transition: the transition form high to low death rates, and then from high to low birth rates the decline of fertility happened later and also slower than the decline of mortality MDRs experienced the demographic transition much earlier than LDRs

Age Transition

the shift from a predominantly younger to a predominantly older population as a society moves through the demographic transition is the "master" transition in that the changing number of people at each age that occurs with the decline of mortality, and then the decline in fertility, presents the most obvious demographic pressure for social change changing numbers and percentages of people at each age and sex as mortality and fertility decline, and as migrants flow in and out—the "master transition" because it forces change in societies

Health and Mortality Transition

the shift from deaths at younger ages due to communicable diseases to deaths at older ages to degenerative diseases transition process almost always begins with a decline in mortality

Family and Household Transition

the shift in family and household structure occasioned in societies by people living longer, with fewer children born, increasingly in urban settings, and subject to higher standards of living, all as part of the demographic transition all the previous transitions directly affect this particular transition is a set of transitions in and of itself

Migration Transition

the shift of people from rural to urban places, and the shift to higher levels of international migration as people migrate from one country to another, both age structures in both populations change growth in the number of young people in rural areas will lead to an oversupply of young people looking for jobs, which encourages people to leave in search of economic opportunity

Urban Transition

the shift over time from a largely rural population to a largely urban population most humans today are born, live, and die in cities urban places are known for low fertility, so as humans gather more and more densely into cities, we can only expect the fertility rate to continue to drop it begins with migration from rural to urban areas and morphs into urban "evolution" as most humans are born in, live in, and die in cities

Mercantilism

the view that a nation's wealth depended on its store of precious metals and that generating this kind of wealth was facilitated by population growth relied on a state-sponsored system of promoting foreign trade, while inhibiting imports and thus competition generated wealth for a small elite but not for most people

Major Points of Marx

there is no universal law of population and resources, as maintained by Malthus it is the unequal distribution of wealth, not the absolute amount of wealth that cause the poverty population growth creates labors; therefore, in a well-organized society, it should lead to increase in production poverty is the result of a poorly organized society, especially a capitalist society

the Prelude to the Demographic Transition Theory

this population-growth controversy that was started by Malthus and Marx sparked a series of nineteenth and early twentieth century reformulations that have led directly to prevailing theories in demography Mill Dumont Durkheim

the Prelude to Malthus *Godwin*

thought that scientific progress would enable the good supply to grow far beyond the levels of his day, and that such prosperity would not lead to overpopulation because people would deliberately limit their sexual expression and procreation believed that most of the problems of the poor were due not to overpopulation but to the inequities of the social institutions, especially greed and accumulation of property Malthus read these works of Godwin, Condocet, and others, and wanted to believe them but thought they were too optimistic, so he wrote his own

Impact on Society

we now know that population growth is not caused by one set of factors nor as having a simple prescribed set of consequences perhaps the closest we can come at present to "big" theories are those that try to place demographic events and behavior in the context of other global change, especially political change, economic development, and westernization *Goldstone* argues that population growth in the presence of rigid social structures produced dramatic political change in England and France, in the Ottoman Empire, and in China *Sanderson* promoted the idea that population growth has been an important stimulus to change throughout human history, but especially since the Agricultural Revolution

Is there something beyond the demographic transition?

when the transition was achieved, this idea of the demographic transition proposed that things would stabilize demographically and a country would enter a *post-transitional* era after WWII, a "second demographic transition" was proposed, where the fall in fertility wasn't necessarily due to not having babies but rather the rising attractiveness of freedom to do whatever one wanted, especially among women

Premodern Population Doctrines *Plato*

wrote "The Laws" in 360 BC emphasized the importance of population stability rather than growth proposed keeping the ideal community of free citizens (as differentiated from indentured laborers or slaves who had few civil rights) at a constant 5,040 - he thought that since this number was divisible by 12, that it held a sacred dimension thought that too many people led to anonymity, which would undermine democracy thought that too few people would prevent adequate division of labor and would not allow a community to be properly defended population quality more important than quantity; emphasis on population stability