Climate Change
Extension of Kyoto Protocol Beyond 2012
First commitment period of Kyoto Protocol lasted from 2008-2012. Second commitment (2013-2020) period was agreed in 2012 as Doha Amendment to the Kyoto protocol. However, many annex-I parties started saying that they would withdraw from the Kyoto Protocol because of the forced target commitments. Since 2007, extension of Kyoto Protocol has been an issue in all UNFCCC annual conferences. In 2015, the Paris Agreement has been signed as a separate instrument under the UNFCCC rather than an amendment / update of the Kyoto Protocol.
Paris Agreement on Climate Change
12 December 2015, the Paris Agreement was adopted as an agreement within the UNFCCC framework. so that either the rise in global temperature remains below 2°C by the turn of 21st century or as low as 1.5°C. The other purposes of Paris Agreement are as follows: Increasing ability to adapt to the adverse impacts of the climate change and foster climate change resilience Making finance flows consistent with the pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development.
Rio Declaration
27 principles focusing on major topics related to human role in protection of the environment. The declaration was comprehensive and was hailed by some as Third Generation Human Rights.
Hypercapnia
CO2 induced acidification of body fluids, which may lead to adverse effects.
The Kyoto Protocol recognizes 6 GHGs
Carbon dioxide (CO2 ) Methane (CH4 ) Nitrous oxide (N2 O) Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6).
Carbon Footprint
GHG emission by an entity, event, product or person. It is expressed terms of the amount of carbon dioxide, or its equivalent of other GHGs, emitted largest Carbon footprint Coal Oil Natural Gas Geothermal Energy
UNFCC Annex-I
industrialized economies including US, UK, Australia, Germany, France, Japan, Russia, Canada and countries of European Union
Blue Carbon
the carbon captured by living organisms in oceans and stored in the form of biomass and sediments from mangroves, salt marshes and seagrasses
Paris Agreement Mitigation
the developed countries are needed to take lead in setting absolute emission reduction targets. However, the developing countries are "encouraged to move over time towards economy-wide emission reduction or limitation targets in the light of different national circumstances". all the countries are required to provide updates on their achievements towards NDCs.
Paris Agreement Climate Finance
the developed countries will need to provide finance to the developing countries for emission reduction actions as well as adaptation at least USD 100 billion per year from 2020 onward. However, as of now, there is no consensus on what exactly makes climate finance the developing countries can also voluntarily fund other developing countries
Positive IOD
the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean off Sumatra in Indonesia becomes colder than normal while the western tropical part of the Indian Ocean near the African coast becomes unusually warm. Such an event has been found to be beneficial for the monsoon If there is a positive IOD, it can bring good rains to India despite of an El Nino year.
Kyoto mechanisms Emission Trading
the polluter pays while those who don't pollute get rewarded. the governments launch schemes in which they set limit (called emission permit) on pollutants that can be emitted by the industries. The industries need to buy the emission permits to be eligible to emit specific volume of pollutants. The industries that pollute more need to spend more on such permits. The emission permit represented the so called Carbon Credit or Kyoto Units. One Kyoto Unit referred to one tonne of Carbon dioxide or the mass of another greenhouse gas with a carbon dioxide equivalent to one tonne of carbon dioxide.
Paris Agreement Climate Finance and Loss & Damage
Further, the developed countries are required to provide transparent information also on support to developing countries and biennially communicate their plans for mobilisation of additional finance. The onus to mobilize these funds cannot be placed entirely on bilateral assistance and the Green Climate Fund. The developing countries would need to virtually de-link the greenhouse gas emissions from economic growth and devise innovative ways to mobilize funds.
Paris Agreement Maintaining the difference between developing and developed countries
(CBDR) was enshrined in the Principle 7 of the Rio Declaration In the Paris agreement, definition of CBDR has been expanded and it now includes the phrase "in the light of different national circumstances". It appears to have diluted the notion of hitherto "historical responsibility" of the developed countries.
On a broader level, India needs to focus on
1) Cleaner thermal power generation, 2) Promoting renewable energy, 3) Reducing emissions from transport and waste, and 4) Creating climate resilient infrastructure 5) Building low-carbon cities, 6) Using smarter electric and mass public transit, 7) Investing in buildings efficiency and a digital, decentralised electric grid
No doubt, by retaining the "common but differentiated responsibilities" clause in the Paris Agreement, the world has acknowledged Indian concerns. However, this is not enough.
1) Doing away with the distinction between developing and developed nations dilutes the differentiation principle which had put the onus on developed countries to take greater responsibility for reducing emissions. 2) But, undue pressure is already being exerted on India as one of the largest polluters of the world. 3) Though third in terms of total emissions, it ranks 140th globally in terms of per capita emissions.
State-based Approach
1) Each State faces a distinctive set of challenges regarding the impact of warming, but also offers its own set of opportunities for reducing emissions depending on its natural resources. 2) For example, coastal States need to take action to protect their shores from sea level rise, districts that are drier need to prepare for variable monsoon precipitation, Himalayan regions have their own unique challenges, and selected parts of peninsular India and offshore areas offer great opportunities for harnessing wind power. 3) These various aspects need to be considered in fulfilling the Paris Agreement now, but also for developing clear and sustainable goals for the future. 4) Although ratification of the Paris Agreement is already being considered, the deliverables on adaptation are far from clear. In fact, there are no agreed-upon adaptation goalsat the global level. 5) It would therefore be interesting and useful for India to formulate adaptation strategies at State levels and demonstrate if and how these could be meaningful for the country as a whole.
Responsible Steps taken by India—
1) Prepared National Action Plan on Climate Change as well as State-wise Plan: a. Energy efficiency b. Sustaining Himalayan Ecosystem as well as forests c. Protection of water & air d. Strategic Knowledge build-up for Climate change 2) Target of generating 20,000 MW of solar power by 2020 out of which achieved almost about 1200 mw 3) Introduction of PAT: Perform, Achieve and Trade 4) Voluntary commitment of reducing emission intensity of GDP by 20-25% by 2020 5) Adaptive Mechanism: Agriculture (Organic Farming & Watershed management)
Given these pressures and commitments that have been made, India now needs to
1) Re-imagine and develop a new approach, or national strategy — a set of policies that lay out its action plans for reaching its targets, and not just for reducing emissions. 2) With the close monitoring that is expected of the announced NDC targets, there is a lot that India needs to be prepared with. 3) The country's overall strategies would have to include a number of different aspects such as an integration of mitigation, adaptation and inclusive low-carbon development. 4) India has to have clarity on implementation, along with an understanding of which programmes would be undertaken by the Central government, which ones by the States, and how these would all add up to fulfilling our commitments.
Way Forward
1) The efforts taken to ensure that the resolution will be discussed in a technical session (November 2016 session) will being in a positive effect, recognizing at the same time the importance of building a climate-change perspective on the business side of the global order— Discussion of the following to initiate a broader transformation involving just transitions in forms and types of work and economic production, energizing the types of transformational changes needed to reduce emissions and adapt to living in a warmer world a. Economic diversification and transformation b. Just transition of the workforce c. Creation of decent work and quality jobs 2) There is a need for proper rules to be set in place, considering the historical wrongs and rights and the global politics of climate change, and have greater clarity pertaining to the core agreement and the portion of the text which is referred to as the "decision". 3) The concept of 'Equity' needs to be put to work in a true operational manner and not just in speeches, talks and documents. Common but differentiated responsibilities (CBDR) on a continuous scale of differentiation will provide a good benchmark for negotiations and will provide scope to India as well as other developing countries to accept and engage with further negotiations 4) Mitigation and adaptation can together go a long way in limiting the adverse impacts of the climate change but it requires a more globally-coordinated response as well as series of steps that needs to be taken at a regional level— Mitigation - Prepare—Communicate—Maintain—Implement—Fulfil nationally determined commitments a. Process to access proposed targets & level of implementation (+ Leadership) Adaptation: Planning—Guaranteed matching support—Proper International mechanism to address loss and damage— Enhanced and Robust Transparency & Accountability System 5) The inclusion of the civil society groups to be allowed back in as green movement partners, by the developing countries have been accepted and has also received accolades at Bonn— good way to approach inclusive green development for all.
India and climate change
1) The large coastline of India is susceptible to rising sea levels. 2) The population is also suffering from the visible consequences of climate change, such as heat waves, pollution and failed monsoons. 3) Hence, India could not argue for its right to development beyond a point. 4) Therefore, in a calculated move, it embraced the cause of climate change but with a caveat—the availability of global finance and performance of other nations. 5) This decision puts onus now on developed countries to fund and transfer technology to developing nations, besides making efforts to meet their domestic commitments.
But, is it early? India has to be wary at the negotiating table as —
1) Too much focus on incremental pollution by developing countries shifts the public attention away from the historical damage done by the developed countries during their years of rapid economic growth. 2) The per capita carbon footprint of India is still very low by global standards. 3) India needs coal as part of its energy mix right now, until new technologies emerge.
Point of Contention between developed and developing countries
1) Whether mitigation alone should be a part of the NDCs or whether adaptation and the means of implementation should also be included 2) Interpretation of the Paris Agreement regarding differentiated transparency of action in developed and developing countries 3) No clarity yet on what it means to "deliver an overall mitigation in global emissions"— determine of at least one benchmark of a legally binding global target will depend upon it All of these concerns would require further discussion and have to be resolved before COP-22 in Marrakech, Morocco
Kyoto mechanisms Joint Implementation
Annex-I country can invest in emission reduction projects in any other Annex I country as an alternative to reducing emissions domestically. The idea is to lower the cost of complying with their Kyoto targets by investing in greenhouse gas reductions in an Annex I country where reductions are cheaper, and then applying the credit for those reductions towards their commitment goal.
UNFCC Classification of Parties
Annex-I, Annex-II and Developing countries.
The way ahead
Countries need to re-think in terms of targets well beyond 2030 for emissions and adaptation. Fundamental decisions on growth and development need to go well beyond the goals for a high GDP and consider surviving extreme events, living in a warmer world, and inclusivity, especially with hundreds of millions who are poor, which is fundamental to countries like India. The linkages among development trajectories, GHG emissions reduction targets and adaptation strategies perhaps need to be made more explicit by researchers and scientists, so that decision makers can understand the medium- and long-term implications of virtually all their choices. With the challenges that India faces and the need to provide human services in a sustainable manner to its vast underserved population, the country requires social and economic transformation at a scale that has not been attempted before.
What India has done so far?
In 2007, the Indian government established the Prime Minister's Council on Climate Change, out of which emerged the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC). The NAPCC also rolled out a fair number of programmes and strategies under its eight missions. Core Missions are - 1) National Solar Mission 2) National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency 3) National Mission on Sustainable Habitat 4) National Water Mission 5) National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem 6) National Mission for a "Green India" 7) National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture 8) National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for Climate Change Each of the States then developed State-level climate action plans, which are currently being implemented. The State-level studies and plans have also in effect alerted the States to begin the task of incorporating climate change into their planning. The NAPCC essentially announced to the world that India was willing to act on its global responsibility to limit GHG emissions. This was despite the fact that the country has low per capita emissions (less than 2 tonnes per capita, which is lower than the world average) and has historically often taken the lead in calling for equity in international climate policy and the allocation of a fair carbon budget. At COP-21, India proposed that it would reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP (GHG emissions per unit of GDP) by about a third compared with its 2005 levels, and has committed itself to depending on non-fossil fuel sources for 40% of its generation capacity by 2030. Adaptation was also mentioned in India's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) along with several details in different sectors.
Why sudden announcement?
India was so far slow in committing to the Paris agreement. But, it realised that the ratification threshold is likely to be achieved in October without India's support where it ranks third in global emissions. Thus, there could arise a possibility thereafter that India be casted as an obstructionist and hence it understandably changed the track.
IPCC Assessment Report
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) publishes an integrated review of the science, impacts, mitigation and adaptation assessment. Last such review report was published in 2014 and next round of review was expected to be in 2022. However, considering the rapid rise in average global temperature, IPCC has decided to commission some special reviews now only -- (an outcome of Nairobi meeting, April 2016). These special reviews would examine the effect that 1.5°C would have on land use, ecosystems, oceans and glaciers. The above concerns present a very bleak picture. Therefore, the article deals with - what India has done so far and what India has to do to come out of this bleak setting?
India's strategy for combating climate change and achieving INDC targets is a multi-pronged one.
Its plan to expand solar capacity to 100 GW by 2022 from 8 GW in 2016 is expected to make up almost 48% of the renewable energy capacity. The International Solar Alliance and the recently unveiled plan to subsidize domestic manufacturers will help but can only be sustained by a higher inflow of funds for solar projects. The rest of the renewable energy capacity would be developed through a mixture of wind power, hydropower, biomass, waste to energy and nuclear power. Nuclear energy will form less than 4% of these clean energy commitments. Though it is unlikely that India's non-membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group will significantly affect its plans, the membership could have enhanced it. However, the issue of renewable energy being less competitive still persists. A significant challenge to these plans are fall in oil prices, which increases the opportunity cost of expansion of alternative energy sources. India uses Piguovian taxes as against cap and trade system proposed by countries such as China, to limit emissions. India is also making efforts to bring down current greenhouse gas levels through the development of carbon sinks. But this is a difficult task considering the land-scarcity problem.
Paris Agreement Loss and Damage
Prior to the Paris Agreement, a Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage associated with Climate Change Impacts (called Loss and Damage Mechanism) was adopted at Warsaw in COP-19 in 2013 Under the Paris Agreement, this L&D would continue
India @ the Bonn
Recognized the pivotal role of the Bonn meeting in shaping emerging rules and activities of a post-Paris world order, reiterating the importance of the common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities (CBDR-RC) of the parties in responding to climate change (Developed countries need to fulfil the obligation to meet their pre-2020 commitments in the Kyoto Protocol and to take early action) The Like Minded Developing Countries called for the need for clarity on the role of non-state actors in the Paris Agreement and asked for a report on the topic at the next meeting of the SBI. This is an important development as there could be a conflict of interest in their participation, and the rules and guidelines on non-state actor engagement need to be clear so that their roles are transparent and the integrity of the UNFCCC process is safeguarded.
Earth Summit 1992
Rio de Janeiro Outcome of this summit were five documents Rio Declaration Agenda 21 Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) Forest Principles UNFCC
Conclusion
The 14th Finance Commission made forest cover one of the criteria for devolution of funds from the Centre to incentivize states to engage in afforestation activities. This is expected to increase in carbon sinks A 33-35% reduction in emission targets is not an unattainable one. But it requires persistent efforts from both the global community and the Indian government. The Paris agreement will become operational post 2020 after the retirement of Kyoto protocol. Till then, India can use the intervening years to frame the rules and create the institutions that will govern the Paris Agreement.
What India has to do?
The Paris Agreement calls for comprehensive reviews, regular "global stocktaking" and ratcheting up of targets periodically. We know that India will experience severe effects of global warming. The recent floods in Jammu and Kashmir and Tamil Nadu, and severe drought in many districts, are probably just an indication of the harsh implications for the future.
Paris Agreement Market mechanism
The difference between Kyoto Protocol and Paris Agreement in this context is that earlier / currently, such trade exsists in limited regions and countries and Paris agreement might have a chance to make it a global market place
Studies and estimates shows
The first few months of 2016 were close to 1.5° Celsius higher than average global temperatures for at least 10,000 years prior to the 19th century. Long-term average global temperatures are expected to cross the 1.5°C threshold (which Paris COP-21 set) in just about 10 to 15 years. This period is considered to be much too soon for countries across the world which are still struggling to reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and adapt to the impacts of rising temperatures. We know that, at the Paris Conference of Parties (COP-21) last December, world leaders agreed to limit global warming to well below 2°C while still making an effort to keep the average rise to below 1.5°C. However, many scientists and analysts actually consider staying within a long-term rise of 1.5°C to be an impossible goal unless some far-fetched method of sucking carbon out of the air or burying it forever becomes viable.
Forest Principles
The forest principles came as non-legally binding document that makes several recommendations for conservation and sustainable development forestry
UNFCC Conference of Parties
Till now 21 Conferences have been concluded. The Kyoto Protocol was concluded and established at COP-3 in 1997 as a legally binding obligation for developed countries to reduce their green house gas emissions
Walker circulation
Walker circulation is a conceptual model of the air flow in the tropics. It is caused by the pressure gradient force that results from a high pressure system over the eastern Pacific Ocean, and a low pressure system over Indonesia, that is why also called Pacific Walker Circulation When the Walker circulation weakens or reverses, an El Niño results, causing the ocean surface to be warmer than average, as upwelling of cold water occurs less or not at all. on average, brings more high pressure over India and suppressing the monsoon, especially in spring when the monsoon begins to develop.
Ocean Acidification
When CO2 dissolved in the Ocean water, it creates Carbonic Acid (H2CO3) and increases the Hydrogen Ion (H+) concentration in the ocean At present the pH of the Ocean water is 8.069 and this corresponds to an increase of 28.8% in the H+ Ions since Industrialization of the 18th century.
Paris Agreement Transparency
a uniform system will be built for the countries to report what they have been doing towards the fight against climate change. It will also track the achievements of the countries towards Nationally Determined Contributions. However, there are no punitive actions for non-compliance of such reporting.
Kyoto Protocol
adopted in 1997 and came into force in 2005. It is currently in force, however, its first committement period had expired on 31 December 2012. It was signed and ratified by 192 countries including all UN member states except Canada, South Sudan, United States and Andorra United States signed but did not ratify the Protocol and Canada withdrew from it in 2011 Out of 40 Annex-I Countries, 37 signed it but only 7 ratified it.
Indian Ocean Dipole
also known as Indian Nino is an irregular oscillation of sea-surface temperature, in which the Western Indian Ocean becomes alternately warmer and then colder than the eastern part of the ocean.
Impacts of Oceanic Acidification
decrease in the pH will give negative impact to the oceanic organisms such as the Calcifying animals. falling pH makes the oceans under saturated with the CaCO3, and the result is that rate of dissolution of calcareous material would increase.
Paris Agreement Emission Reduction Action
developed countries will have to take emission reduction targets and actions but unlike the Kyoto Protocol - where such targets were mandatory; they shall be able to determine the nature and quantum of these targets nationally - INDC
UNFCC Developing countries
did not require to reduce emission levels unless the developed countries supply enough funding and technology for their development.
Paris Agreement Review Mechanism
every five year, there shall be an assessment of how the emission reduction actions of all the countries are able to succeed towards achieving the goal of keeping global temperatures under control. Every fifth year, the assessment will also be made on kind and volume of funds.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
is a long-lived El Niño-like pattern of Pacific climate variability. PDO and ENSO have similar spatial climate fingerprints yet the major difference is that PDO persists for 20-30 years while the typical ENSO persists for 6 to 18 months primary climatic fingerprints of the PDO are most visible in the North Pacific/North American sector, while secondary signatures exist in the tropics. On the contrary, the primary climatic fingerprints of the ENSO are visible in tropics while secondary are visible in North Pacific/North American sector The positive phase favors more El Ninos and a stronger Aleutian low and warm water in the north Pacific off the Alaskan coast.
Convention on Biological Diversity
legally binding treaty It was followed up by two protocols viz. Cartagena Protocol and Nagoya Protocol.
Madden-Julian Oscillation
major fluctuation in tropical weather on weekly to monthly timescales of 30-60 days or 40-50 days. can be characterized as an eastward moving "pulse" of cloud and rainfall near the equator that typically recurs every 30 to 60 days and is a feature of the tropical atmosphere. MJO effects are most evident over the Indian Ocean and western equatorial Pacific. It influences the timing, development and strength of the major global monsoon patterns The oscillation of surface and upper level winds was remarkably clear in Singapore which became known as the Madden and Julian Oscillation (MJO).
Kyoto mechanisms
mechanisms which define how the developed countries would support the developing countries while reducing thier emission targets. There are three kinds of mechanisms Emission Trading Joint Implemenation Clean Development Mechanism
UNFCC
secretariat is located in Bonn, Germany. non-legally binding framework agreement to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere Later, Kyoto Protocol was adopted as a legally binding protocol under UNFCCC. The Kyoto Protocol is to be replaced by newly agreed Paris Agreement.
Paris Agreement Technology Mechanism
set up a technology mechanism, which would help the countries to cooperate in developing and deploying clean technologies
UNFCC Annex-2
subgroup of 23 Annex-I countries which could play financial role in the development of the developing countries and pay the cost of development. These included Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States of America.
Kyoto mechanisms Clean Development Mechanism
the annex-I countries can implement an emission reduction project in developing countries and thereby earn saleable certified emission reduction (CER) credits, each equivalent to one tonne of CO2, which can be counted towards meeting Kyoto targets. This has been by far the most popular Kyoto Mechanism.
India announced to ratify the Paris agreement on October 2
to show its support for need to contain the rising global warming and the challenges emerging thereafter. However, until G20 in early September 2016, India was not expected to ratify the climate change agreement. Is sudden such change a hasty decision? India has agreed to ratify the Paris Agreement—which aims to contain the increase in earth's temperature to 2 degrees Celsius, and if possible 1.5 degrees Celsius, above pre-industrial levels. Paris agreement materialized at the 21st Conference of Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. It requires 55 countries accounting for at least 55% of global greenhouse gas emissions to ratify it in order for it to come into force.
Agenda-21
voluntary action plan and a comprehensive blue print with 40 points for role to be played by local, national and global organizations in every area in which humans directly affect the environment. For implementation of these points, a Commission on Sustainable Development was established.