Coincidence and probability judgements:

Diaconis and Mostella (1989) identified factors than can account for the majority of coincidences, what are these?

A hidden cause-cognitive explanation, multiple end points-by counting multiple end points as a match it's far more likely that we'll find coincidences happening to us and the law of truly large numbers-if enough opportunities exist even very unlikely coincidences will occur.

Blackmore and Troscianko (2985)

Asked participants how likely chance outcomes were; they found no significant difference between believers and disbelievers and their ability to estimate probabilities accurately. However, in a second larger study believers did perform significantly worse on probability judgements.

Musch and Ehrenberg (2002)

Discovered an overall correlation between paranormal beliefs and error rates on performance at probability reasoning tasks. However when they took general cognitive ability into account (by looking at grades achieved in secondary school) this correlation disappeared.

What is the probability misjudgment hypothesis put forward by Falk?

People find coincidences that happen to them far more surprising than similar coincidences happening to others.If coincidence happens to us personally, we're less likely to regard it as a product of chance and therefore likely to look for an alternate explanation. Whereas if it happens to others we're more likely to simply think it's chance or coincidence occurring.

Evaluation:

Research appears to have reliability as all the studies seem to refute the probably misjudgement hypothesis. Studies may lack ecological validity

Findings of Blackmore's study:

The mean score for statements being true for oneself was 2.4. The mean estimation for statements being true of others was 3.6. Believers and disbelievers did not differ from one another in their estimates so that Blackmore had to conclude that the probability misjudgement theories were not supported by these data

What did Blackmore (1997) study? (What she was testing, procedure and hypothesis)

The probability misjudgement hypothesis using a questionnaire consisting of ten statements in which readers were asked to say how many statements were true for them and then estimate how many statements were true for a randomly selected person. She hypothesised that although people generally would underestimate the number of statements that were true for others, this bias would be stronger for believers

How may the underestimation of coincidences due to poor understanding of probability lead to paranormal beliefs?

They underestimate the likelihood of coincidences occurring so when the do occur people may seek to explain them by invoking the paranormal.

Coincidence:

Where two or more events happen by chance to occur at the same time or in close succession leading to the assumption that they're linked