D372 Introduction to Systems Thinking

Kim (2018) states that "an iterative process of going back and forth between theory-building and data analysis..." allows what?

"...allows a systems thinkers to build a better understating of what is happening."

Which elements in the Iceberg Tool represent patterns?

1. The answer to question 5 (patterns) - this element directly relates to patterns in a case study. 2. The waves that stand in for the ocean in which the iceberg floats. - this element is used to show that some patterns are visible and some, hidden as if underwater.

What is a system, as Daniel Kim would define it?

A restaurant serving customers. A restaurant uses many different components, both objects and people, to achieve its purpose of selling food and making money.

What is a causal loop diagram?

A tool used in systems thinking to visualize how elements in a system are connected and influence each other through feedback loops. It shows whether changes in one part of the system reinforce or balance out changes in another part. There are 2 types: Reinforcing loop (R): amplifies change, leading to growth or decline. Balancing loop (B): counteracts change, maintaining stability in the system.

What does this casual loop diagram show?

Balancing loop When the room temp increases, the thermostats turns off the heater, causing the temp to decrease. As the temp decreases, the thermostats eventually turns the heater back on, causing the temp to rise again. This is a balancing loop because the system works to maintain stability by counteracting any changes in temp.

What is a BOT diagram?

Behavior Over Time (BOT) Diagram A second tool that systems thinkers use to move past events. They can help build casual theories, usually done before the data-gathering step. A graph that shows how key variables in a system change overt time. Helps reveal patterns and relationships between variables, allowing to see trends rather than just isolated events. Used to understand complex systems and to identify the causes of changes in behavior over time.

What are central to understanding how things fit together?

Interconnections and interrelationships

What does this example BOT diagram indicate?

It shows the relationship between profits and product launches over time. As the number of product launches increases, profits initially rise but then start to decline, suggesting launching more products does not always lead to sustained profitability.

A law practice wants to file a class-action against a large farm-equipment manufacturer that has, the lawyers believe, sold unsafe tractors. The practice begins to advertise for farmers who have been injured using these tractors, wanting to include them in the lawsuit. The number of farmers in the country is limited, and not all have been injured. When the lawyers begin running ads in rural areas, there is an initial surge of responses, but after a few weeks, the number dwindles. What archetype?

Limits to success The number of potential class-action members is limited, and they have probably already responded. There are not many more people remaining to contact.

It is important to look for structure at...

Multiple levels as if diving down to look at the bottom of an iceberg.

What are external structures?

Networks that act on an organization or situation from the outside.

What are internal structures?

Networks that are embedded within an organization or situation.

What explains the meaning of a pattern as the term relates to a system?

Recurring events or behaviors Patterns are those events and behaviors that occur regularly in a system.

What is a casual connection?

Refers to the relationship where one element or event in a system directly influences another. It explains how changes in one part of the system can cause changes in another, helping identify cause-and-effect relationships within a system. These connections are often visualized using tools like casual loop diagrams.

What does the casual loop diagram show?

Reinforcing loop Increased sales lead to more production. More production leads to higher inventory. Higher inventory allows for more sales. More sales then further increases overall sales, creating a reinforcing cycle. This type of loop shows how feedback in a system can continuously amplify changes.

What explains the meaning of interconnections as that term relates to a system?

Relationships among events, issues, operations, or people. Many things in a system can be connected to other things, including events, issues, operations, and people.

When defining a system's patterns of events and behaviors, look for...

Repeating events

What are casual loop diagrams useful for?

Seeing how various elements, or variables, in a system interact.

When constructing a casual loop, what are the important considerations to take into account?

- Central theme or issue - Time frame, or time horizon, over which the interaction occurs - BOT diagrams, which can reveal key variables - Boundaries of the problem, where to draw a line - How detailed, or how aggregate, the diagram should be - a any significant delays and how they affect outcomes

What are the guidelines to follow when creating casual loop diagrams?

- Label links as positive (one variable causes the same change in a second variable) or negative (one variable causes the opposite change in a second variable) - Determine if the loop as a whole is reinforcing or balancing (even # of negative links means loop is reinforcing, odd # means loop is balancing) - Make the goal of a balancing loop clear or explicit - Represent causes, not correlations

The 8 archetypes can used as:

- Lenses through which to view a real-world systemic problem. Trying on different archetypes can help analyze the issues. - Templates to identify structural problems. - Dynamic theories to understand interrelationships. - Tools to predict behavior. - Guidelines to design interventions.

What are the 6 steps for systemic thinking?

1. Tell the story. Explain what is actually happening. 2. Draw BOT diagrams, one per variable or issue. 3. Create a focusing statement, a question that expresses the heart of the problem. 4. Identify the structure of the system. 5. Go deeper into the issues by asking questions bout the purpose of the system, any existing mental models, the larger system in which the one you are interested in is embedded, and your own personal role. 6. Plan an intervention to correct the problem

A balancing loop involves a...

Goal of some sort and the activity needed to reach that goal, bringing the process into equilibrium.

Experts in systems thinking have developed 8 patterns so common as to be referred to as archetypes. They are:

1. Drifting Goals 2. Escalation 3. Fixes that Fail 4. Growth and Underinvestment 5. Limits to Success 6. Shifting the Burden 7. Success to Successful 8. Tragedy of the Commons

Why do these statements describe a system and a systematic problem within it? 1. A smartphone designer's new phone case not accommodating the size of the phone's camera. 2. The highways around a growing city becoming congested because of additional residents.

1. The team designing the new phone is a system, and the problem is that two parts of the team are not coordinating their efforts effectively. 2. Highways form a system with a goal of facilitating smooth traffic flow. When they become too crowded, that is a systematic problem.

Which aspects are a part of structure in this case study? A cosmetology company focuses on hair and makeup for weddings and wedding-related events and employs 4 cosmetologists plus the owner. Trend towards less elaborate weddings takes place, threatening company's core business. Owner launches new offering of glamour photos of couples on special events (anniversaries, etc.), appears customers are interested, especially age 60+. Within 6 months, 40% of total business comes from this.

1. Two main product lines: weddings and glamour - the fact that the company's business is now based on two related but separate lines of business is a structural feature of this case study. This is one of two options here that includes a casual connection. That is, these two products lines drive the success or failure of the business 2. The trend towards less elaborate weddings. - this trend is such an important event that it threatened the continuation of the entire company. This is one of two options here that includes a causal connection. That is, this trend affects the level of success of the business.

What describes a system and a systematic problem within it?

A car with a dead battery. A car functions because all its components work together to achieve the goal of transporting people and items. When the car's battery is dead, that is a problem that prevents the car from accomplishing its goal.

What must structural observations include?

A casual connection. That is, random events that do not cause outcomes in a given situation or case study are not structural.

What is each archetype described using?

A casual loop diagram, a description, and guidelines for identification.

What is systems thinking?

A framework that views problems as part of a larger interconnected system. Emphasizes understating relationships, feedback loops, and interdependencies within the system, rather than isolating issues into separate parts. This approach helps anticipate behavior and manage complex system more effectively.

What is a system?

A group of interacting, interrelated, or interdependent parts that form a complex, unified whole with a specific purpose.

What is a collection?

A group of parts without interrelationships or a unified purpose, or both.

What is structure?

A network of relationships that create behavior.

A novice politician runs for office and narrowly wins election. Weak support from voters means low politician influence/capital. She begins to give well-received speeches, leading to appearances in the media, and her political capital rises. She wins her next election decisively. This casual loop diagram illustrates her situation.

A politician's election causes a rise in political capital, which may affect attention from the media and voters.

The archetypes are useful when... .... ...

Analyzing real systems. If you can find one or two that seem to match, you can gain insights into your problem.

What describes the concept of a system's boundaries?

Anything included in, and not excluded from, the analysis of the system. The process of setting boundaries means stating the time and physical components to be both in and out of the analysis.

What does systems orientation ultimately point to?

Alternative ways of thinking and acting.

What is a systematic problem?

An issue that arises from the structure or behavior of the entire system, rather than being caused by individual components. Often characterized by recurring patterns or feedback loops within the system, making it difficult to solve by addressing isolated elements.

What does building casual theories mean as relates to BOT diagrams?

BOT diagrams help in forming casual theories before gathering large amounts of data. This approach guides problem-solving and helps avoid being limited by incomplete data.

When creating casual loop diagrams, be careful to...

Diagram only causes, no correlations. That is diagram cases where A causes B, not where A merely happens and B also happens.

Managers at JTK Inc. are required to coach + develop skills of their direct reports. Each year, managers are evaluated against expectation that for each 6 supervised employees, managers will pick 2 for promotion. In theory, should mean employees get high level of attention+ help from managers and everyone's skills are being developed. In practice, managers are so busy that not much coaching occurs and each year, before evaluation period, a flood of promotions come in. What archetype?

Drifting goals The goal of actually developing skills of the employees has been lowered to the point where only promotions are valued and they are probably awarded without much evidence of skill development.

What are feedback loops?

Feedback loops happen when a part of the system's output affects its input. Positive feedback makes things grow or increase, while negative feedback helps keep things balanced. Negative Feedback Example: (Thermostat) When a room gets cold, thermostat turns on heater (negative feedback). Once room is the right temp, heater turns off, keeping the temp balanced. This is a negative feedback loop working to maintain a stable environment. Positive Feedback Example: (Population Growth) as more people are born, population increases, which leads to even more births. This creates a cycle where the population keeps growing faster over time.

What are systems viewed as having?

Feedback loops rather than liner cause-and-effect patterns. Feedback loops create reinforcing and balancing processes.

What can reinforcing loops lead to?

Either growth or decline.

What does it mean to focus on patterns, not events as relates to BOT diagrams?

Events like product launch or profit drop are often seen in isolation. BOT diagrams shift focus to long-term trends, helping reveal deeper insights about why these events happen.

What do systems contain?

Events, patterns, and organizing structures.

What are casual theories as relates to systems thinking?

Explains how different parts of a system are connected and influence each other. Identifies cause-and-effect relationships within the system, helping predict how changes in one part of the system will affect other parts. This theory is often developed using tools like BOT diagrams and causal loop diagrams to visualize these connections.

Casual loops often include balancing loops, which...

Occur when a change in one variable causes a change in the opposite direction, positive or negative, in another variable.

Casual loops often include reinforcing loops, which...

Occur when a change in one variable causes a change in the same direction, positive or negative, in another variable.

Why is structure often thought of using the metaphor of an iceberg?

Structure is difficult to see in any given situation. Because of this, it is often thought of using the metaphor of an iceberg, where much of it is hidden underwater.

What is this statement describing? It is a disciplined approach which understands situations by both examining its parts and the unified whole.

Systems thinking Systems thinking is a philosophy that includes tools and methods as well as holistic observations.

What are the 5 C's and what are they use for?

The 5 C's are used to explain systems thinking. 1. Curiosity: desire to explore and understand how systems work 2. Clarity: gaining a clear understanding of the system and its challenges 3. Compassion: considering the needs and perspective of all stakeholders 4. Choice: making intentional decisions that impact the system 5. Courage: willingness to take risks and pursue meaningful challenges

Why is the BOT diagram so powerful in understanding a given situation or case study?

The BOT shows how events, over time, reveal patterns. The fact that the BOT plays out over a defined period of time shows how patterns develop.

What does David Peter Stroh mean by clarity as relates to a system?

The ability to see a situation accurately and completely. Clarity is the 2nd of Stroh's 5 C's, and it means with sharp, true sight.

A novice politician runs for office and narrowly wins election. Weak support from voters means low politician influence/capital. She begins to give well-received speeches, leading to appearances in the media, and her political capital rises. She wins her next election decisively. This casual loop diagram illustrates her situation.

The central issue here is the politicians voter support, which is affected by positive and negative events and which affects her political capital and the next election

Which aspect is a part of structure in this scenario? A Midwest company selling plants to home gardeners needs to get its annual printed catalog out in Feb. In Nov, the editor meets with the heads of 3 departments. Editor tells the company that within a month they need a list of products to be included in the catalog. A month later, no lists have been submitted. On Jan 3, the editor finds out only 1 department has turned in the required info.

The fact the company prints an annual catalog. The pattern of printing an annual catalog is one of the primary features of this system's structure. This is the only option that includes a casual connection. That is, the printing of this catalog drives many other activities at this company.

What are does iterative process mean as relates to BOT diagrams?

The process involves switching between theory-building and data analysis, refining understanding over time through continuous observation and adjustment.

Which element in the Iceberg Tool represents interconnections?

The triangle that stands in for the iceberg metaphor. The iceberg metaphor conveys that the interconnections and patterns in a situation tie everything together.

What does it mean if a system includes exponential growth or decline?

There is a reinforcing loop at work.

What does it mean if reinforcing loops are self-reinforcing?

They continue to add change in one direction over time.

What do the boundaries of a system include?

Time, spatial limitations, and key variables, which can include people.

When is systems thinking especially helpful?

When engaged with an important issue containing a chronic, well-known problem that has resisted past efforts at a solution.