Data by Country

Greece

Athens PM Antonis Samaras - New Democracy Very weak coalition between center-right New Democracy and center-left Panhellenic Socialist Movement. Far left SYRIZA Far right Golden Dawn - nationalist, fascist, anti-immigrant, and neo-nazi. Killed a leftist musician - largely outlawed. Trying to set up chapters abroad in countries with large Greek populations - US Germany Canada Australia Cyprus. Founder Nikolaos Michaloliakos. Sister party in Cyprus is National Popular Front. Focuses on converting the disenfranchised and young. Was inspired by the military junta years. Far left and anarchist groups have begun targeting Golden Dawn members- very dangerous situation Next to no natural resources One of three states with highest unemployment (25%) Will take on the rotating presidency for the first half of 2014, but is a relatively weak position. Can direct EU attention to certain issues, much as Lithuania focused on Eastern Europe. Will focus on formation of a banking union and the Mediterranean Immigration crisis. Initial eurozone agreement was reached in December with the Single Resolution Mechanism for banks - Athens will request the European Parliament formally ratify the project. BC of its location, has also requested EU assistance in dealing with asylum seekers from North Africa and Middle East. Regional elections in 2014 - Good results for Syriza or Golden Dawn could undermine the coalition power. Dictatorship from 67-74. Military Junta - The Regime of the Colonels. Series of right-wing military juntas that ruled Greece following the 1967 Greek coup d'état led by a group of colonels. US backed anti-communists. Their official justification was that a "communist conspiracy" had infiltrated Greece's bureaucracy, academia, press, and military, to such an extent that drastic action was needed to protect the country from communist takeover. Thus, the defining characteristic of the Junta was its staunch anti-communism. The absence of human rights in a country belonging to the Western Bloc during the Cold War was a continuous source of embarrassment for the free world (considering Greece is seen as the inventor of democracy) and this and other reasons made Greece an international pariah abroad and interrupted her process of integration with the European Union. In 1999, U.S. President Bill Clinton apologised on the behalf of the U.S. government for supporting the military junta in the name of Cold War tactics. Golden Dawn's leader, Nikolaos Michaloliakos, met the leaders of the junta while in prison and was inspired to lay the foundations for the party Greco-Italian War (40-41) - the initial Greek counter-offensive was the first successful land campaign against the Axis in the war. By the middle of 1940, Italian dictator Benito Mussolini had grown jealous of Adolf Hitler's conquests and wanted to prove to his Axis partner that he could lead Italy to similar military successes. Italy had occupied Albania in the spring of 1939 and several British strongholds in Africa, such as the Italian conquest of British Somaliland in the summer of 1940, but could not boast of victories on the same scale as Nazi Germany. At the same time, Mussolini wanted to reassert Italy's interests in the Balkans, feeling threatened by Germany, and secure bases from which British outposts in the eastern Mediterranean could be attacked. He was irritated that Romania, a Balkan state in the supposed Italian sphere of influence, had accepted German protection for its Ploiești oil fields in mid-October. Greek dictator Ioannis Metaxas rejected an Italian ultimatum demanding the occupation of Greek territory, Italian forces invaded Greece. The Greek army counterattacked and forced the Italians to retreat. By mid-December, the Greeks occupied nearly a quarter of Albania, tying down 530,000 Italian troops. In March 1941, a major Italian counterattack failed, humiliating Italian military pretensions. Some historians, such as John Keegan, argue that it may have influenced the course of the entire war by forcing Germany to postpone the invasion of the Soviet Union in order to assist Italy against Greece. Failure of Italians led to the Battle of Greece, where on 6 April 1941, coming to the aid of Italy, Nazi Germany invaded Greece through Bulgaria and Yugoslavia. The Greek army began retreating from Albania to avoid being cut off by the rapid German advance. The bulk of the Greek army was on the Albanian border, from which the Italians were trying to enter Greece. German troops invaded through Bulgaria, creating a second front. The Greek army found itself vastly outnumbered in its effort to defend against both Italian and German troops. As a result, the Bulgarian defensive line did not receive adequate troop reinforcements and was quickly overrun by the Germans who then outflanked the Greek forces in the Albanian borders, forcing their surrender. The Battle of Crete came after mainland Greece had been subdued. Looking back near the end of the war, as Germany's inevitable and impending defeat loomed ever closer, Hitler attributed great blame to Mussolini's Greek fiasco as the cause of his own subsequent catastrophe Nazi invasion of Crete - 41. Launched by paratrooper invasion. After one day of fighting, the Germans had suffered very heavy casualties, the Allied troops were confident that they would prevail against the German invasion. The next day, through miscommunication and the failure of Allied commanders to grasp the situation, Maleme airfield in western Crete fell to the Germans, enabling them to fly in reinforcements and overwhelm the defenders. The battle lasted about 10 days. It was not only the first battle where the German paratroops were used on a massive scale, but also the first mainly airborne invasion in military history. Was also the first time invading German troops encountered mass resistance from a civilian population. Because of the heavy casualties suffered by the paratroopers, Adolf Hitler forbade further large-scale airborne operations. However, the Allies were impressed by the potential of paratroopers and started to build their own airborne formations. Possession of Crete provided the Royal Navy with excellent harbours in the eastern Mediterranean, from which it could threaten the Axis southeastern flank. From the island, the Ploieşti oil fields in Romania, which were critical to the Axis war effort, were within range of British bombers. The German army high command was preoccupied with the planned invasion of the Soviet Union (Operation Barbarossa), and was against involvement. But senior Lutwaffe needed new confidence after loss of Battle of Britain. Allied commanders at first worried the Germans might use Crete as a springboard for further operations in the Mediterranean's East Basin, possibly for an airborne attack on Cyprus or a seaborne invasion of Egypt in support of the German-Italian forces operating from Libya. The German invasion of the Soviet Union, Operation Barbarossa, made it apparent the occupation of Crete was a defensive measure intended to secure the Axis' southern flank Municipal elections scheduled for 2014 Revolutionary Organization 17 November (17N) - Marxist urban guerrilla group that emerged in Greece in the late 1970s after the 1973 student uprising against the Greek military junta. Operated mostly in Athens. Assassinated CIA station chief. With major arrests in early 2000's the Greek government declared victory over the group, and it has disappeared.

Chile

Augusto Pinochet - created millions of jobs, reduced poverty and had huge growth - but tortured tens of thousands Relied on Argentine natural gas, but now has to look elsewhere as Kirchner's populist policies outstripped demand. Elections. First time voters will choose btw female candidates and where voting is no longer mandatory Former près. Michelle Bachelet of center-left Concertacion coalition seems poised to win in either first or second round. Opposition Evelyn Matthei of the center-right Alianza coalition. She is former labor and social security minister. Matthei was a third choice- two others had to drop out due to personal scandals. She is weakened by the unpopularity of President Sebastian Pinera, a fellow Alianza member. More than 20 years since the fall of Pinochet in 1990 National debate concerning the role of govt in social welfare. Chile has had very consistent growth due to copper exports, and has reduced poverty. But Chile is one of the most unequal countries in Latin America - income distribution. Small population boom after dictatorship has led to large growth of ppl 15-30 years old. Have no living memory of dictatorship and grew up in open social environment and protest culture. Bachelet's approval ratings were high when she left in 2009. Pinera's election was an odd swing to the far right when social pressure was building in Santiago. President cannot serve consecutive terms. Pinera's first obstacle was to deal with the aftermath of the 2010 earthquake that left hundreds dead and a million displaced. Then the miners being trapped. Pinera was elected as a businessman who would run the country with fiscal responsibility - has spent presidency fighting populist demands for higher govt spending and uncertainty in global copper markets. Protests from students spread to workers unions. Call for free, public college level education for all Chileans. Bachelet approves of this demand by offering to increase corporate tax rates, could make investment less competitive. Binomial election system helps only the leading two parties - ensures a politically divided national legislature, incentivizes coalition building, and makes it very difficult for third parties to access power. Will require changes, because it leads to a very fractious congress. Energy security is at risk. Highly dependent on copper exports. China's strong appetite for the good has left prices high. Cannot keep up with electricity demands. It would seem that a decisive victory for Bachelet would push country far to the left, joining Bolivia, Venezuela, Ecuador, and Argentina w populist policies. But Chile is fundamentally different from these countries, w its enormous copper trade and most affluent society in S. America. Political system favors cooperation and coalitions. Had to joinj forces w parties from all ends of the political spectrum, constraining its ability to pass radical laws. Binomial system means there will be equal representation btw left and right unless on bloc wins by a factor of two. Ensured stability at the expense of truly representative outcomes. In order to make electoral/constitutional reform, Bachelet would need to court members from the opposition. Financial system prevents politicians from tampering w economic - stopped them from using copper wealth for their own political purposes, as Chavez did w/ Venezuela's oil. End result will be limited - Bachelet will probably enact socially progressive policies aimed at reducing Chile's inequality while leaving the overarching liberalized economic model intact. Could only amend electoral system if she got 3/5 of parliament.

The individual in geopolitics

In the narrower time frame, individuals do become significant. The impersonal forces that shape the broadest strokes of a nation's history, the patterns and structures working in 50 or 100 year increments, work themselves out yearly, monthly, and daily through the actions of individuals.

Indonesia

Jakarta 245 million people Ruling Democratic Party President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono - 2004 to present - brought economic boom and stability - Formed Democratic Party and serverd in Suharto's government and military - prevented from running for a third term. His economic development 'Master Plan' required reducing dependency on raw material exports and investing in infrastructure at home to ease transport and energy bottlenecks. Move towards political decentralization. Former Dutch Colony (Dutch East Indies). Finally united the archipelago in 1900. After Japanese occupation in WWII, became independent. Sukarno - first president from 1945 to 1967 ('Old Order')- Communist and leftist - opposed to military and Islamists. He declared independence from Japan and was the leader of the resistance movement. Dutch only transferred authority after four years of armed struggle. Spent over a decade imprisoned by Dutch - Japs released him. Sukarno and his fellow nationalists collaborated to garner support for the Japanese war effort from the population, in exchange for Japanese aid in spreading nationalist ideas. Sukarno established an autocratic system called "Guided Democracy" in 1957 that successfully ended the instability and rebellions which were threatening the survival of the diverse and fractious country. President Suharto - Second president from 1965-1998 (New Order)- Came to power in a coup. Ran the Golkar political party. Centered on maintaining political order, economic development, and removal of mass participation in the political process - strong political role for the military and selective but effective repression of opponents. Strident anti-communism remained a hallmark of the regime. Strongly authoritarian, while allowing technocrats run economy. But his policy of allowing army involvement in all levels of government, down to village level, fostered corruption. His "transmigration" programmes - which moved large numbers of landless farmers from Java to other parts of the country - fanned ethnic conflict. Was removed from power after mass protests - escaped calls for him to be held responsible for decades of dictatorship. The country faces demands for independence in several provinces, where secessionists have been encouraged by East Timor's 1999 success in breaking away after a traumatic 25 years of occupation. Parliamentary vote in April, Presidential in June Opposition Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle. Led by former pres Megawati Sukarnoputri (female and former daughter of Sukarno), but young businessman and mayor of Jakarta Joko Widodi (Jokowi) is most popular- populist and anti-corruption Golkar - ruling party under Suharto - led now by Aburizal Bakrie Great Indonesia Movement Party - nationalist and led by Subianto China is Indonesia's top export destination - Its slowdown and Europes have decreased profits Jamaah Ansharut Tauhid (JAT) - Splinter of Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) formed in 2008. 2002 Bali bombings - Killed 202 people on the island of Bali. Carried out by Jemaah Islamiyah. Osama Bin Laden stated that the Bali bombings were in direct retaliation for support of the United States' war on terror and Australia's role in the liberation of East Timor Vast and expanding consumer market Leadership role in ASEAN State-owned energy company PT Pertamina eighth largest exporter of natural gas. Majority of exports go to Japan as LNG shipments and to Singapore via pipeline connections Third-largest exporter of LNG, following Qatar and Malaysia Largest exporter of coal 20 oil, 11 gas, 5 coal Indonesia is set to create ban on export of raw materials and minerals. Has detained numerous Chinese bulk carriers. Jakarta is trying to move up the value chain, knowing the importance of shifting from an economic model heavily reliant on raw materials export to one in which Indonesia refines its own minerals, metals and ores, both for export and for more important domestic use in manufacturing industries. But short-term concerns have led to possibility of delay of ban. The ban was hailed as a hallmark of Pres Yudhoyono's economic policy, and showed that the country may take over China's low-end manufacturing empire. But is dealing with high inflation and big deficit. Looks likely that that country will delay large portions of the ban until 2017 in a bid to keep metals export revenue alive. Original ban targeted bauxite, nickel, and copper - Indonesia is the world's top exporter of the first two (top regional producer of copper). It is not a critical supplier of other ores, which means the other minerals would probably see upward pressure on prices (wouldnt turn the markets upsidedown). Supplied 58% of world's nickel - double the next largest supplier (Philipines). Supplied 48% aluminum, triple the second highest exporter (Australia).Indonesia dominates China's bauxite and nickel industries - Chinese traders have since begun stockpiling the minerals. Ban highlights the country's ongoing struggle to overcome the legacy of ten years of political decentralization in the wake of pres Suharto's fall in 98. Devolution of power from Jakarta to the regions was politically necessary to maintain unity in face of significant internal divisions. But as the country seeks to build more nationally integrated and advanced economy, its central leaders are constrained by regional, local, and individual corporate interests that seek to retain the status quo. These interest want to continue exporting raw materials than invest in expensive refining infrastructure that entails large up-front costs Combination of economic crisis and political transition has proved troubling. Has high inflations and currency issues. The government's response is complicated by upcoming legislative elections in April and presidential elections in July that will likely give Indonesia a new ruling party for the first time in a decade. Voters had to deal with a fuel price hike in 2013, as govt tried to lower subsidies.

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Kinshasa Pres Joseph Kabila (2001-present). He took office ten days after the assassination of his father, President Laurent-Désiré Kabila (was killed by one of his bodyguards, after he had overthrown the previous president in 97). Former Belgian Colony M23 rebels in east - negotiations ended after amnesty, disarmament, and reintegration problems. Began as a military mutiny group Were formed after integration of the National Congress for the Defense of the People, the last Tutsi rebel force, into the military. M23 was mutiny against this, and was upset that their leaders were not offered leadership positions in military. DRC has no intention of allowing M23 back North Kivu - UN is deployed led by South Africa, Tanzania, and Malawi- capital is Goma Uganda and Rwanda support M23. Kampala wants to protect its own economic interests in east. Rwanda has traditionally supported Tutsi rebels in east Congo, including M23, to fight Hutus and access mining commodities. M23 wants to protect Tutsis in the area M23 split into two groups- one led by Jean-Marie Runiga was removed from power. The other led by Sultani Makenga is leading negotiations. Declared end to rebellion after UN attacked last positions along Ugandan border. Rwanda and Uganda removed support for M23, after strong international pressure. Makenga fled across border while remaining fighters surrendered. First time DRC has been able to militarily stop a rebellion in the east. DRC is forming specialty brigades for dealing with rebels. Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (refugee Hutu militia that had committed 94 genocide) and Mai Mai militias operate in Kivu territories, but are not as big of threats as M23. The new scramble for Africa is to reach DRC from Indian Ocean - every route ends at the edge of DRC without penetrating it. Simply a vast, impassable blank spot on the map, despite large resources of copper, cobalt, rare earth, diamond, and oil. Tropical rainforest prevents communication between major cities and govt. Can't project authority. Rather than leading to the capital, all transport links lead to neighboring regions. Civil wars and local fiefdoms without central control. Southern countries are competing for minerals in Katanga province, located in southeast. Huge amounts of copper and cobalt. Shipped by road to south African port of Durban But some of the highest production costs in the world Mobutu Sese Seko - President from 65-97. Installed and supported in office primarily by Belgium and the United States, he formed an authoritarian regime, amassed vast personal wealth, and attempted to purge the country of all colonial cultural influence while enjoying considerable support by the United States due to his anti-communist stance. During the Congo Crisis, Belgian and US-backed forces aided Mobutu in a coup against the nationalist government of Patrice Lumumba in 1960 to take control of the government. Lumumba was the first leader in the country to be democratically elected and was killed by a Katangese firing squad; Mobutu soon became the army chief of staff. He took power directly in a second coup in 1965. Mobutu established a single-party state in which all power was concentrated in his hands. He also became the object of a pervasive cult of personality. Rebel forces led by Laurent Kabila expelled him from the country. Already suffering from prostate cancer, he died three months later in Morocco. Recent coup failed miserably (only 70 or so men). Was led by Paul Joseph Mukungubila, who ran for president in 2006 and received 0.35% of the vote. Previous coups succeeded because they had support of factions within the military or rebel militias. Armed men took over the Congolese Radio and Television HQ and attacked the N'Djili International Airport and military base. Said he was here to free the Congolese from Rwandan slavery, a reference to Kabila's father's close relations with Kigali. Mukungubila in the past has claimed to be a prophet and declared himself king of Africa. Proposed $80 billion Grand Inga Dam would surpass the Three Gorges Dam as the world's largest.

Zimbabwe

Pres Robert Mugabe - wanted by ICC Opposition - Movement for Democratic Change

Venezuela

Pres-Nicolas Maduro Capital-Caracas Ruling-United Socialist Party of Venezuela. PSUV Opposition coalition - Mesa de la Unidad. Have close ties to the private sector. Led by Miranda state Governor Henrique Caprilles Radonski. PDVSA-Petroleos de Venezuela - transfers tens of billions per year to gov to pay for gov spending programs Like most of South America, depends on hydroelectricity for most of its electricity needs. Second largest natural gas fields in West Relies on hydroelectricity for most of its energy 13th in oil (3rd most reserves) 27th in gas (8th) China is big consumer of Ven. energy Claims border extends to Essequibo River - or 60% of Guyanese land - This land has large gold, oil, natural gas deposits. Seized ships and oil vessels. By arresting opposition leader, Maduro now has the 3/5 majority needed to enact enabling law for a year. But difficulty of passing this law never occured under Chavez, and doubts about the ruling party's unity abound. Opposition boycotted 2005 legislative elections, giving PSUV overwhelming majority until 2010. Skyrocketing inflation and shortages of basic goods. Maduro deployed security forces to occupy stores suspected of overcharging and speculation. Prices are rising and scarcities of basic goods. Wants to force retailers to adhere to new policy of profit margins of 15-30 percent. Black market exchange rates and price speculation to exploit distorted currency. Maduro is trying to prove that he is in control. The military is the ultimate arbiter of power in Venezuela. But has no real incentive to intervene and bear the burden of guiding the country through years of economic and political turmoil. Chavez's Bolivarian Revolution (99-13). Chávez became a career military officer, and after becoming dissatisfied with the Venezuelan political system, he founded the secretive Revolutionary Bolivarian Movement-200 (MBR-200) in the early 1980s to work towards overthrowing it. Chávez led the MBR-200 in an unsuccessful coup d'état against the Democratic Action government of President Carlos Andrés Pérez in 1992, for which he was imprisoned. Released from prison after two years, he founded a socialist political party, the Fifth Republic Movement, and was elected president of Venezuela in 1998. Maduro has begun reaching out for dialogue with the opposition coalition. Will initially focus on security matters. If Maduro can gain some support from opposition members, he may be able to exploit divisions within the coalition. Unlike Chavez, he is forced to talk to the opposition. Opposition has credibly challenged the presidency twice, forcing the PSUV to increase public spending to gain votes, worsening the economic situation. Could use some of the opposition's close ties to the private sector to secure help in obtaining businesses' collaboration in addressing food and goods shortages. May succeed in attracting some members of the Mesa de la Unidad. Chavez never had to talk or deal with the opposition. After the 2002 coup attempt against him, Chavez excluded the opposition from most positions of power. He staffed Cabinet posts, governorships, and oil positions with loyalists. Was highly popular because of high levels of social spending funded by Petroleos de Venezuela, so there was no need to talk to the opposition. Then he could ignore them because they boycotted the 2005 elections, and were not represented in the National Assembly until 2010. Venezuelan coup d'état attempt of 2002 - Saw President Hugo Chávez ousted from office for 47 hours, before being restored by a combination of military loyalists and massive public support for his government. Chávez was initially detained by members of the military and pro-business elites. Pedro Carmona was declared as the interim president. Carmona's brief rule saw the Venezuelan National Assembly and the Supreme Court both dissolved and the country's 1999 Constitution declared void. In Caracas, the coup led to a popular pro-Chávez uprising that the Metropolitan Police unsuccessfully tried to suppress. Key sectors of the military and parts of the anti-Chávez movement also refused to back Carmona. The pro-Chávez Presidential Guard eventually retook the Miraflores presidential palace without firing a shot, leading to the collapse of the Carmona government and the re-installation of Chávez as president. The United States and Spain both rushed to acknowledge the (pro-US) Carmona forces as the de facto government but ended up choosing to condemn the coup once it became clear the plotters had been unsuccessful. Decision came at the time of several controversial bills introduced by Chavez to increase his control of PDVSA. Chavez blamed the US. Venezuelan War of Independence (1811-1823) was one of the Spanish American wars of independence of the early nineteenth century, when independence movements in Latin America fought against rule by the Spanish Empire, emboldened by Spain's troubles in the Napoleonic Wars. The country achieved independence from Spain in 1821 under the leadership of its most famous son, Simón Bolívar. Venezuela, along with the present-day countries of Colombia, Panama, and Ecuador, formed part of the Republic of Gran Colombia until 1830, when Venezuela separated and became a sovereign country. A devaluation in 2014 is highly likely, meaning inflation will likely rise. Will continue relying on state-owned oil company PDVSA to fund social spending and provide foreign currency for the central bank. Govt will consider raising fuel prices or reducing domestic programs to reduce strain on the oil company. It appears that Maduro will maintain control, having gained the cooperation of powerful govt figures, especially PDVSA and military figures. Maduro has appointed several top military leaders who had close ties to Chavez to minesterial positions. These men all were part of Chavez's failed coup in 92. Having surrendered on behalf of the military forces attempting to incite an overthrow of the government, Chavez went on to serve a jail term from which he emerged as a political voice for change, eventually rising to power through a popular vote. Though the coup failed, it marked a turning point in history. Chavez called his co-conspirators the "Centaurs of 4F" in honor of the Feb. 4 uprising and the horseback rebellions of centuries past, a nickname used today throughout Venezuelan media. Maduro now needs to ensure the loyalty of the military. The new leader of the national intelligence agency (Sebin) is particularly important. Sebin focuses mostly on domestic issues.

Finland

Pursuing nuclear energy Karelia - Disputed btw Finland, Sweden, and Russia. After the end of the Russian Civil War and the establishment of the Soviet Union in 1922, the Russian part of Karelia became the Karelian Autonomous republic of the Soviet Union (ASSR) in 1923. In 1939, the Soviet Union attacked Finland, thus starting the Winter War. The League of Nations deemed the attack illegal and expelled the Soviet Union from the League on 14 December 1939. The Soviet Union demanded amongst other concessions that Finland cede substantial border territories in exchange for land elsewhere, claiming security reasons, primarily the protection of Leningrad, which was only 40 km from the Finnish border. The war's end cancelled the Franco-British plan to send troops to Finland through northern Scandinavia. The Moscow Peace Treaty of 1940 handed most of Finnish Karelia to the Soviet Union. About 400,000 people, virtually the whole population, had to be relocated within Finland. The Winter War and the resulting Soviet expansion caused considerable bitterness in Finland, which lost its second biggest city, Viipuri, its industrial heartland along the river Vuoksi, the Saimaa canal that connected central Finland to the Gulf of Finland, access to the fishing waters of Lake Ladoga, and made an eighth of her citizens refugees without chance of return. The collapse of the Soviet Union brought an economic collapse in Karelia. Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the area has experienced massive urban decay. The hastily and poorly constructed buildings from the Soviet era, as well as older houses remaining from the Finnish era, are being abandoned Finland became independent from Russia in 1917, following WW1. Finnish Civil War - 1918 - transition phase from a Russian Grand Duchy to an independent state. Between the forces of the Social Democrats led by the People's Deputation of Finland, commonly called the "Reds", and the forces of the non-socialist, conservative-led Senate, commonly called the "Whites". The Reds—dominated by industrial and agrarian workers—were supported by the Russian Soviet Republic. The Whites—dominated by peasants and middle- and upper-class factions—received marked military assistance from the German Empire. The Reds were based in the towns and industrial centres of southern Finland, while the Whites controlled more rural central and northern Finland. The Whites won the war, in which about 37,000 people died out of a population of 3 million. The collapse of the Russian Empire following the February and October Revolutions of 1917 spurred the collapse of the Grand Duchy of Finland, and the resultant power vacuum led to bitter conflict between the left-leaning labor movement, led by the Social Democrats, and more conservative non-socialists. Soviet Russia's main support to the Reds was the supply of weapons. A general offensive by the Whites began on 15 March and was bolstered by the attack of 13,000 soldiers from the German army in April 1918. In the aftermath of the civil war, Finland passed from Russian rule to the German Empire's sphere of power. The civil war remains the most traumatic, controversial and emotionally charged event in the history of modern Finland, and there have even been disputes about how to designate it The Mannerheim Line was a defensive fortification line on the Karelian Isthmus built by Finland against the Soviet Union. During the Winter War it became known as the Mannerheim Line, after Field Marshal Baron Carl Gustaf Emil Mannerheim. The line was constructed in two phases: 1920-1924 and 1932-1939. By November 1939, when the Winter War began, the line was by no means complete Carl Gustaf Emil Mannerheim - Mannerheim was voted the greatest Finn of all time. Given the broad recognition in Finland and elsewhere of his unparalleled role in establishing and later preserving Finland's independence from Russia, Mannerheim has long been referred to as the father of modern Finland. Mannerheim made a career in the Imperial Russian Army, rising to the rank of lieutenant general. He also had a prominent place in the ceremonies for Tsar Nicholas II's coronation and later had several private meetings with the Russian Tsar. After the Bolshevik revolution, Finland declared its independence but was soon embroiled in civil war between the pro-Bolshevik "Reds" and the "Whites," who were the troops of the Senate of Finland. Mannerheim was appointed the military chief of the Whites. Twenty years later, when Finland was twice at war with the Soviet Union from late 1939 until September 1944, Mannerheim successfully led the defence of Finland as commander-in-chief of the country's armed forces. In 1944, when the prospect of Germany's defeat in World War II became clear, Mannerheim was elected President of Finland and oversaw peace negotiations with the Soviet Union and the United Kingdom.

Oman

Sultan Qaboos bin Said al Said. He rose to power after overthrowing his father, Said bin Taimur, in a palace coup in 1970. He is the 14th-generation descendant of the founder of the Al Bu Sa'idi dynasty. Muscat Strategic relationship w/ Iranians Wary of Saudi domination in any proposed GCC confederation. Announced it would withdraw from GCC if Saudis moved ahead with plan. Largely due to its distinct character as a non-Sunni polity that has existed for centuries as a crossroads of Persian, African, and Indian civilizations.

Lebanon

Beirut Pres Michel Suleiman (2008-present). Served as Commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces from 1998 to 2008. Maronite Catholic It appears Lebanese stability may be part of Iranian-US negotiations. Hezbollah and US have been talking to include the group in Lebanese Cabinet. US has urged March 14th coalition (anti hezbollah) to adopt March 8th group into cabinet. Amal is mediating btw US and Hezbollah. Even Walid Jumblatt and the Druze are beginning to work w Hezbollah and Assad. Twin bombings in Iranian Embassy and Ambassador's residence in Lebanon, carried out by jihadists. Iranian embassy is located in Hezbollah stronghold. Iran and Hezbollah recognize the unique opportunity to bolster Bashar al Assad's position while US-Iranian negotiations are underway. Only the Saudis are providing weapons to the rebels. Hezbollah and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps will proceed with Qalamoun offensive - have already taken Qara. Whoever has Qalamoun controls the northern approach to the capital. Polarization over Syria will make it more difficult for Hezbollah to reach a political accommodation with mainstream Lebanese Sunnis on forming a new govt - will prolong political paralysis. Hezbollah has likely assasinated moderate Sunni politician Mohamad Chatah through a car bomb, a few blocs from where Hariri was killed. He was an outspoken critic of Syria and Hezbollah. Meant as a show of force against the Saudi-backed Future Movement (part of the March 14 Alliance), led by al-Hariri family. He was an economist, was a close aid of Rafiq al-Hariri, and worked for the IMF. Was ambassador to US and was known as one of Washington's preferred partners. Was finance minister and advisor to Saad al-Hariri. Level of tradecraft points to Hezbollah. Meanwhile, Sunni jihadists hope that they can divert Hezbollah's attention away from Syria by creating sectarian strife for Lebanon. There is a major question as to why Hezbollah would carry out the attack. The group is confident about Syrian gains and the US-Iranian negotiations. Has been using these gains to push harder in political negotiations in Lebanon over the formation of the next Cabinet and over presidential election rules. Demands veto power in Cabinet, and wants to overturn the Taif Agreement, which determines the sectarian composition of Lebanon's government, so that Shiites can gain more seats in parliament. Wants Shiites to move from 21 to 33%, 33% for Maronites, 33% for Sunnis and Druze. Would seem to undermine this plan, by radicalizing Lebanese Sunnis. Not to mention, Chatah was from Tripoli, which is a jihadist breeding ground in Northern Tripoli, where Alawites and Sunnis are already fighting. Complicates Hezbollah's plans to secure northern supply routes. Is already heavily concentrated along Syria's western border in the Qalamoun area and Qusair to secure supply lines btw Bekaa Valley. Vehicle bomb struck Dahiyeh, killing four. Prior to this attack, Hezbollah commander Hassan al-Laqis was killed on Dec 4, Iranian Embassy targeted Nov 19, and two bombs in southern suburbs Aug 15 and July 9. Hezbollah's resources have become stretched thin as it tries to secure vital supply routes in northern Lebanon through Syria in the Qalamoun and Qusar regions. Hezbollah fighters have been instrumental in aiding the regime, and their supply transit lines are crucial for bringing in fighters, arms, and supplies. But it is being threatened at home while its strongest fighters are abroad. Many Sunnis are disillusioned with the mainstream Sunni political movement led by the Hariri clan, and will turn toward Salafist groups, backed by Saudi Arabia. Sunnis and Maronite Christians are challenging Hezbollah. Hezbollah bombed two Sunni mosques in Tripoli late August, then in October killed Brig. Gen. Wissam al-Hassan to disrupt Syrian rebel supply lines. Hezbollah meanwhile has tried to use Iran's negotiations with the US to convince the Maronites, Druze, and Sunnis that they face little choice but to accommodate Hezbollah's political demands. The more vulnerable Hezbollah appears at home, the harder it will be to coerce its sectarian rivals into agreeing to its terms. This is exactly what Saudi Arabia wants. Saudis have tried to strengthen the Lebanese army, trying to get Sunni politicians to deploy the army in Hezbollah territory, particularly along the northern border where Sunni and Shia compete over supply lines. But the army is very weak, fragmented, and full of Hezbollah sympathizers. 2014 will see the slow rise of an indigenous jihadist movement in Lebanon. Meanwhile, Hezbollah and Iran will try to make the US formally accept Hezbollah as a political actor and to formally integrate the group into the Lebanese army. Formed a new cabinet - but first sticking point will be whether to recognize Hezbollah. Presidential elections in May and parliamentary elections in November (was previously delayed due to sectarian disagreements). New cabinet is split three ways - 8 seats for Iranian-backed March 8, 8 for Saudi-backed March 14, 8 for Walid's and the Pres and PM's 'centrists'. To form cabinet, Hezbollah conceded several ministerial positions, including justice ministry, interior, and communications. Did not want Ashraf Riffi, former head of the only sunni security institution and which has been supporting Sunii rebels, to control Interior Ministry, so allowed him to take justice ministry (allowed a different March 14 member to take interior). Communications ministry is sensitive for Hezbollah, bc the group is highly protective of the country's telecommunications network. In 2008 after PM Siniora declared hezbollah's communications network illegal, HZ started uprising in Sunni western suburbs of Beirut. Siniora withdrew his declaration. HZ knows that it needs to cooperate with Sunnis to prevent jihadist strikes. HZ hopes that Iranian negotiations with the US will lead Saudis to withdraw support for jihadists. Elections must take place before Suleiman's term ends on May 25. And before parliamentary elections later in the year, the issue over reformed electoral laws needs to be solved. In place of current winner-takes-all system in mixed-sect districts, the Orthodox Gathering law could potentially could allow for proportional representation.

Egypt

Cairo 80 million ppl - Most populous Arab state Col. Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. Promoting himself as the next president. Receives around 1.5billion per year from US for military US needs stable Egypt to uphold peace treaty-only rhetorically will criticize human rights violations against MB Skyrocketing inflation Saudis have influence over military Potential for Putin to visit Egypt for first time. In the past, Egypt was a staunch supporter of communist regimes around the world, and Soviets supported Gamal Abdel Nasser as he modernized the country. But when Sadat took over in 1970, the country turned to West, and he expelled thousands of Soviet military advisers. W Iranian negotiations, Russia will lose its last bit of leverage in Middle East, so seeking new partner to counter US with. US cut military aid to Egypt. Serious economic problems - falling energy production and skyrocketing inflation. Have turned to their Gulf allies for help, and have received billions from UAE, Saudis, and Kuwait. Russia could help financially, by helping refund Egypt's foreign reserves and aiding it. Could also make considerable military deal - plans to sell fighter aircraft, defense missile systems, and anti-tank guided missiles. Can also provide grain - Egypt has been unable to afford Russian grain, which is more expensive than Ukrainian grain, could be a deal for discounted grain. Al-Zawahiri, leader of the al-Qaeda core, was a member of the Egyptian Islamic Jihad. Was not an effective leader of the group, and it split. He was then adopted into the core of al-qaeda. Farouk I of Egypt/Sudan - 36-52. He would die in exile in Italy. His sister was the wife of Shah Reza Pahlavi. Egyptian Revolution of 1952 - military coup d'état by the Free Officers Movement, a group of army officers led by Muhammad Naguib and Gamal Abdel Nasser. The revolution was initially aimed at overthrowing King Farouk. However, the movement had more political ambitions, and soon moved to abolish the constitutional monarchy and aristocracy of Egypt and Sudan, establish a republic, end the British occupation of the country, and secure the independence of Sudan. Four years later there was the 56 invasion of Egypt by France, UK, and Israel. Gamal Abdel Nasser (56-70) - Planned the 52 overthrow of the monarchy. In 1953, Nasser introduced far-reaching land reforms. Following a 1954 Muslim Brotherhood-led attempt on his life, he ordered a crackdown on the organization. Died of a heart attack in an Arab League meeting. Anwar Sadat - Established the National Democratic party. 70-88. Was assassinated by fundamentalist army officer. Sadat was a senior member of the Free Officers who overthrew King Farouk in the Egyptian Revolution of 1952, and a close confidant of President Gamal Abdel Nasser, whom he succeeded as President in 1970. He departed from many of the political, and economic tenets of Nasserism, re-instituting a multi-party system, and launching the Infitah economic policy (opened the door to private investment). Hosni Mubarak (81-2011) - National Democratic Party. Was a career air force officer. Military is now seeking to crush the Muslim Brotherhood, which they designated a terrorist organization. Stamping out the most organized political group in the country could strengthen the jihadists. Eastern jihadists want to expand their area of operation from the Sinai to the mainland. While many disaffected youth from the MB probably joined the ranks of jihadists, it is unwise to group the MB and the jihadists together. Plays into the hands of the jihadists, who see an opportunity to expand influence in the political instability. Jihadists can exploit the situation. Cairo has become dependent on the Al-Nour salafists, but the party's endorsement of the coup split the group down the middle. Jihadists are trying to link the crisis to Gaza. They are trying to draw israel into a regional conflict, which will further weaken regimes in Cairo and Damascus. Egyptian military will use the elections of 2014 to entrench its authority and stack the government with political allies. The military will selectively coopt Salafists into the government. Will face major electricity crisis and unavoidable subsidy cuts. Its dependence on GCC aid will come with the condition that they continue to repress the Muslim Brotherhood. Military will likely pass the new referendum on constitution/charter. Egypt's next elections are unlikely to produce a viable civilian alternative to the Muslim Brotherhood -- one that is capable of preventing the military from ruling from behind the scenes. Army sees this as a necessary step to solidify its interests. Still seeking a civilian counterpart that could fill the gap left by Mubarak's National Democratic Party. The Brotherhood had an opportunity to play that role, but it distanced itself form non-Islamist parties, failing to seek compromise. It has managed the backlash of the coup bc it has appealed to a broad range of political actors, including the al-Nour party (the new potential islamist ally to the military). The constitution will replace the Islamist Morsi constitution. Al Nour has supported the referrendum, while the MB has rejected it. As a result, it has played a key role as the only Islamist entity to participate in the drafting of the new document and was able to gain certain concessions on the role of religion in politics. Al-Nour has made a dramatic transition from being an ultraconservative movement that rejected democracy and shunned politics to one displaying a great deal of pragmatism. In the wake of the Brotherhood's collapse, al-Nour is the single-most organized party, evidenced by the fact that it garnered a quarter of the votes in the 2011-12 parliamentary elections. Could emerge as the largest block in parliament. There is still the problem that the new constitution strictly prohibits religious parties, but since al-Nour is the only Islamist group that supports the new constitution, it has likely struck a deal with the military. Military need al Nour because it doesn't want MB to regain its strength. Furthermore, the armed forces need to show that the post-coup roadmap has broad national support that transcends ideology. Now its real challenge is to ensure that the new order can create a civilian leadership that cannot challenge the military and, more important, can administer the political economy of the country. Military relies on nour to keep the Muslim population split. There simply is no single force with which the military can join forces, following the fall of the National Democratic Party. There is currently no coherent secular political force that the army can rely on, though there is a range of small parties and personalities that could be cobbled into a coalition. These liberal groups are also uncomfortable with a military-dominated gov. The army is caught between the choice to either field al-Sisi as the presidential candidate or put up a former commander, such as former chief of the army staff Lt. Gen. Sami Annan. The problem with the latter option is that most of the old commanders are tainted due to their association with Mubarak. More important, since the coup, a public relations campaign promoting al-Sisi as the stabilizer of the country has made an impact on many Egyptians eager to see the power vacuum in Cairo filled by a strong leader. While the US just resumed its aid, the U.S. administration needs al-Sisi to maintain at least the appearance of civilian supremacy over the military. What is unclear is whether al-Sisi would remain as army chief while running for president, as was the case with former Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf The new amendments to constitution keep secret the military budget, ensure that the president must be a past officer in the military, and strengthens military tribunals for citizens. Through these amendments the military is ensuring that a president, who, by design, will be friendly to military interests, will be powerful and well insulated and that the important policies of the state remain outside the purview of civilian political forces that are likely to gain control of parliament. The secularists and Salafists are supporting the amendments, but they will soon be fighting amongst each other. They will also be upset by the imbalance btw civilian and military power. Four bombings in Egypt show increased tradecraft, with one happening at the Security Directorate. Happened on the third anniversary of the start of the anti-Mubarak protests, and the same day as a military appreciation parade. Ansar Beit al-Maqdis claimed responsibility. Has been active in the Sinai since 2011. Prior to Morsi's ouster, it primarily attacked Israel. But like most Salafist groups, after Morsi it began attacking security forces. Is the only Egyptian militant group that has demonstrated the intent, capability and resources to conduct large-scale destructive attacks on the Egyptian mainland. Jihadists and Salafist have been motivated to attack mainland Egypt since Morsi's ouster, aided by weapons flow from Libya. At this time, militants in Egypt cannot derail the election set for March that is likely to see Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Sisi win the presidency Read more: Bombings in Egypt Signal Expanding Militant Capabilities | Stratfor Follow us: @stratfor on Twitter | Stratfor on Facebook Read more: Bombings in Egypt Signal Expanding Militant Capabilities | Stratfor Follow us: @stratfor on Twitter | Stratfor on Facebook

South Sudan

Juba President Salva Kiir Mayardit It's Block B, large oil field, has been only minimally explored in last 30 years. Not connected to any pipelines Great Nile Oil Pipeline flows through Sudan to Port Sudan Have not found any funding for pipelines through Ethiopia to Djibouti, or to Kenyan port of Lamu Govt has tried to delay 2014 elections South Sudan's secession in 11. South controlled 70% of oil production. No provisions created to govern oil transport. Juba eventually halted production for over a year, until transit fee was agreed upon.But S. Sudan is dependent on Sudan because it must use Sudan's export pipelines and processing facilities. Prior to independence, the unified Sudan had fought two civil wars. The second civil war ended with the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement that was put in place from 2005 to 2011. Still border disputes. Most of Sudan's and South Sudan's proved reserves of crude oil and natural gas are located in the Muglad and Melut basins, which extend into both countries. No natural gas production or consumption. Oil fields are mature and declining output. Nilepet - National oil company Predominantly animist and Chirstian, as opposed to Muslim Sudan Fighting in Juba was not an attempted coup, rather the beginning of major tribal conflicts. Presidential guard members of different tribal backgrounds fought at Juba barracks. All part of political competition btw President Salva Kiir Mayardit and former VP Rick Machar before 2015 election. Machar and the Nuer have been supporting Sudanese rebel groups to undermine Kiir's authority. Tensions btw Dinka (35%) and Nuer (16%), the largest ethnic groups within South Sudan. Kiir is a Dinka, Machar is a Nuer. In July, Kiir dismissed Machar from his post. Fighting began when new Dinka unit was placed in presidential guard barracks with Nuer units. Fighting led to Nuer being forced out of complex. Military took up positions in capital, airport and national television shut down, and curfew imposed - all attempts to prevent wider tribal violence, and from anybody thinking about attempting a coup. Kiir will likely round up opponents and reduce the likelihood of future coup attempts by reshuffling the presidential guard unit. Nuer tribe rebels control Bor and Bentiu cities in the Jonglei and Unity states (North-east). Has triggered the evacuation of foreigners, Indian and Chinese oil workers, and humanitarian officials. Mediation talks between President Salva Kiir and Machar are being led by Uganda. Kiir accuses Machar of trying to seize power and depose Kiir. Crude oil production has been disrupted. Military has offered rebels a three-day warning to surrender. Maj Gen. James Joang Chuoi, who defected from Kiir's govt with 700 soldiers, has announced new administration in Unity state. Machar has demanded the release of 10 former ministers and officials, and has called on the army to overthrow Kiir's govt. Uganda is pushing for a coalition government including both groups. South Sudan is essentially a client state of Kampala. Kampala has deployed special operations troops to secure Juba's airport. Uganda has extensive military and political ties with South Sudan that trace back to the region's civil war for independence. Uganda also has extensive peacekeeping experience from Somalia and the DRC. Uganda may look to secure Kiir's safety as well. Uganda requires stability in Juba for its own economy. Kampala has shown a strong preference for Kiir, but regardless it needs stability. Uganda supported the Sudanese People's Liberation Movement with sanctuary, weapons, and training. Wanted to block Sudanese expansion. Feared Khartoum could manipulate the tribal allegiances that flow across the Ugandan border, making Uganda Sudan's client state. SPLM kept Sudan on the defensive and far away from Uganda, establishing a buffer btw the two. Sudan countered by supporting its own client, the Lord's Resistance Army - destabilized and kept Ugandan forces on the defensive. Unlike ethiopia and its mountains or Kenya and its desert, there are no natural boundaries btw Uganda and South Sudan, allowing the populations to move freely. Now the SPLA is no longer a strategic threat to Khartoum, and the LRA is no longer a threat to Uganda. Meanwhile Uganda is an emerging PC16 country positioned to attract manufacturing activities relocating from the east. Instability in Juba spilling over into Uganda could halt foreign investment in energy and transportation infrastructure. And Kampala's oil fields are less than 200 miles from the border with South Sudan. Could undermine confidence in proposed refinery and pipeline projects. So Uganda will take the lead in mediating the Dinka and Nuer tribal clashes. Machar claims to be marching on Juba, having taken the city of Bor - but will be stopped by South Sudanese army forces. Army is poised to retake Bor, and the further Machar's Nuer rebels head to Juba, the closer they get to Dinka population centers. Both sides have been negotiating in Addis Ababa - potential for cease fire, which would buy time for mediation to resolve political tensions. Kenya and Ethiopia have threatened to launch a military intervention if Machar does not cease fire. Ugandan president Musevini has come under harsh criticism for deploying forces to Juba. Unity state oil production has continued to be shut down. Neither side is interested in disrupting oil production, though if the crisis evolved into civil war, Machar's rebels could attempt to cut off the govt from its oil revenues. Larger military confrontations are ongoing in Bor, Malakal and Bentiu. However, there is no direct threat to the oil-producing region of Upper Nile state or to the capital, Juba. There has been heavy fighting, including tank battles, in the streets of Malakal, the regional capital of Upper Nile state. Upper Nile is South Sudan's primary oil-producing region, but the unrest has not directly threatened oil production. Meanwhile, a stalemate has emerged in the fighting along the route between the rebel-held town of Bor and Juba, keeping the rebels who initially fled Juba from threatening the capital. In Malakal the local commander of the South Sudanese military's 7th light infantry division, an ethnic Nuer, defected and declared allegiance to the rebellion. Thus there have been fears of a disruption in oil production. Largest concentration of forces is situated on the road connecting Juba and Bor, the capital of Jonglei state. Currently occupying Bor, the rebels have threatened to march on Juba, but government forces marching toward Bor along the same route have halted the rebel advance. Control of the route would enable government troops to recapture Bor, a Nuer-friendly town. Ugandan troops have entered the country from the South to help protect Juba and retake Bor - have provided heavy armor and air assets. But oil facilities in Unity state have been shut down, with its capital of Bentiu located in the center of the oil region. Oil companies have withdrawn all workers, which likely damaged the equipment. Bentiu was temporarily controlled by Machar's rebels when a local commander switched sides, but the army came from the west and drove them out of the town and south. These rebel forces are now in Leer, a southern town in Unity state. Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) rebels have looted some of the energy infrastructure. JEM originated in Darfur, and has been fighting Sudanese government forces in Sudan's South Kordofan state and depends on supply lines from South Sudan. The violence in Unity threatens those supply lines, so the group has came into the country to fight Machar's men. The northwestern part of Jonglei state remains in gov hands and is critical for preventing these northern rebels from linking up with those in Bor. From here, the army can send forces east to Akobo (along the border with Ethiopia), where Machar is reportedly hiding. The purpose of this fighting is to gain the best negotiating stance in the future.

Jihadist movement

Jihadists' use of violence is quite rational. Tensions btw nationalist and transnationalist jihadists Plan for power is the same accross the board - first establish a state called an emirate to be ruled under jihadist principles, then use that state as a launching pad for further conquests, creating a larger empire, referred to as a caliphate. Al Qaeda's leader/emir Ayman al-Zawahiri Abu Musab al-Zarqawi - leader of al-Tawhid wal-Jihad, which operated in Iraq and pledged allegiance to al Qaeda. Changed its name to al Qaeda in Iraq. Later became Islamic State of Iraq. Since Syria, has changed name to Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant. Past examples of emirates. Al Qaeda in Arabian Peninsula - southern Yemen. Al Shabaab - Somalia. Al Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb - northern Mali. Boku Haram - Northern Nigeria. Ansar al-Shariah - present day Libya. Al Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb leader Abdelmalek Droukdel (Abu Musab And al-Wadoud) Taliban was the first jihadist emirate. Insurgency - All insurgents imploy violence, but not terrorism. Guerrilla warfare/irregular warfare. Prophet Mohammed was an insurgent. Left Mecca and established first Islamic polity in Medina, conducting hit and run attacks against Meccan convoys, then to irregular warfare, until they could conquer Mecca and then the Arabian Peninsula. Take a long view of armed struggle and seek to survive and fight another day rather than allow themselves fixed and destroyed. Time is on their side - hope that long war will exhaust and demoralize enemy. Terrorism - Often means the group is not even capable of irregular warfare. Attacks on soft targets require disproportionate amount of resources to defend against. In a perfect world, would have hierarchical organizational structure, with direct lines of commmand and control. But security forces can attack the hierarchy. So orgs have moved toward cellular structure with small teams or cells working independently without links to eachother. If one cell is compromised, the damage will be contained. But this is an admission of weakness. Takfir - declaring another Muslim an unbeliever. Some groups follow this strictly, others find it unIslamic. Some groups attack Sufis and Shiites, while others cooperate. Regional jihadist groups are 'franchise groups', because they use the widely recognized transnational brand name (ex. al-Qaeda), but they are very much locally owned and operated Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant has continued trying to absorb another Syrian al Qaeda franchise group, Jabhat al-Nusra, even after al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri ordered it to stay in Iraq. 3 levels - transnational al Qaeda core, regional jihadist franchise groups, and grassroots. Al Qaeda has shifted from focusing on the core group to one arising from franchise and grassroots. Has lost its ability to pose strategic threat to US or homeland. After 25 years, al Qaeda is no closer to achieving its objectives. Focoist view that they could act as global vanguard and employ violence to establish conditions necessary for global uprising in Muslim World. Are just trying to repeat the successes of Taliban amid the lawlessness in Afghanistan after Soviet withdrawal. Has been reduced to little more than a propaganda organization while franchise groups have taken the lead. Cannot send highly trained facilitators to mobilize and equip local cells and cannot deploy professional teams of skilled operators. 1993 World Trade Center - was intended to knock the North Tower (Tower One) into the South Tower (Tower Two), bringing both towers down and killing tens of thousands of people. Failed to do so, but did kill six people and injured more than a thousand 1998 East African embassy bombings - hundreds of people were killed in simultaneous truck bomb explosions at the embassies of the United States in the East African cities of Dar es Salaam and Nairobi. The date of the bombings marked the eighth anniversary of the arrival of American forces in Saudi Arabia 2010 Times Square Bombing - Linked to Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan 2010 printer bomb - Al Qaeda in Arabian Peninsula The problem with grassroots terrorism is that local operatives try to conduct grandiose attacks that surpass their operational capabilities. As such, they must look for assistance, and their efforts frequently result in them being brought to the attention of law enforcement.

Belarus

Minsk 9.5 million Alexander Lukashenko (creepy mustache) has been the country's president since 1994. Despite objections from Western governments, Lukashenko has continued Soviet-era policies, such as state ownership of the economy. According to some organizations and countries, elections have been unfair, and political opponents have been violently suppressed. When he first entered politics, he was seen as a champion against corruption and was the only deputy to vote against the independence of Belarus from the Soviet Union. Belarus is labelled as 'Europe's last dictatorship' by much of the West. Belarus has largely maintained government control over key industries and eschewed the large-scale privatizations seen in other former Soviet republics. Has undergone further centralization of power, becoming subject to EU sanctions rather than integrating more closely with the bloc. Small amounts of gas and oil. The recent increase in security cooperation among Baltic and Nordic states makes Belarus more important for Russia as both a buffer for NATO and a base for Russia's military activities in the region. Russia made $2billion loan to country, to ensure that Lukashenko continues cooperating the Putin. Lacks any real pro-Western forces, and is nearly entirely pro-Russian. Along with Ukraine, it was part of the Polish Lithuanian Commonwealth from 14th-18th century. Then when Poland was split up in the 18th century, it became part of the Russian empire, while Ukraine was split down the middle btw east and west. Once the soviet union collapsed, it did not undergo the severe economic changes taking place in the transition to capitalism. In Ukraine and Russia, this transition led to dislocations and the rise of an oligarch class. Belarus adopted 'market socialism', which still controlled prices and state subsidizations of enterprises. Pres Alexandr Lukashenko has ruled the country since 94. Still follows the soviet model of extreme centralization, little tolerance for opposition movements, and a strong security apparatus. Was one of the founding members of the Customs Union in 2010. Strongly integrated into the Russian industrial and energy apparatus, with Russia offering loans and cheap natural gas. Lukashenko has criticized Lithuania and Poland for sponsoring NGOs in its cities. Is a member of Russia's Collective Security Treaty Organization, the alternative to NATO. The two regularly stage training exercises including the recent Zapad operation, which simulated the invasion of Poland and the Baltic states. In 2013, agreed to host a new Russian air base - as part of their integrated air defense network, a Russian fighter jet squadron arrived. However, early on there were spats over energy prices, resulting in a temporary shutoff from Moscow. Also disagreed on running of joint potash enterprise, Belarusian Potash Company, leading to the dissolution of the consortium -- have still not solved issue. To a limited extent, Belarus has looked to China to take over some economic diversification. Last time there were protests in Minsk was in the disputed election of 2010. Security forces cracked down harshly, and the protests never reemerged (although it did result in sanctions from the US and EU. With a new presidential election not scheduled until the end of 2015, it is unlikely that Belarus will experience significant political instability in the near term, barring any new economic shocks.

Papua New Guinea

One island contains Cape Gloucester, sight of WWII battle

Equatorial Guinea

Only Spanish former colony.

Norway

Oslo 5 million Country's core lies in the southeast along Oslo. Lowland region, so it is most habitable. The Scandanavian mountains stretch the entire length of the country. The rugged coastline comprises over 50,000 islands. It is difficult to control, so it has historically been dominated by regional powers such as Denmark and Sweden Gained independence in 1905, and had neutrality during WW1. Offshore natural gas fields are located in the North Sea, in the southwest btw them and the UK. Climate change is making natural resources and transport routes more accessible. Arctic has more than 1/5 of world's undiscovered hydrocarbon resources. Northern Sea Route - from Asia to Europe, over Russia. Has already set up special Arctic battalion Largest oil producer in Europe Second largest gas exporter in world, after Russia Most oil and gas are exported to Europe Operation Weserübung - April 1940 Germany invaded Denmark and Norway, ostensibly as a preventive manoeuvre against a planned, and openly discussed, Franco-British occupation of Norway. After the invasions, envoys of the Germans informed the governments of Denmark and Norway that the Wehrmacht had come to protect the countries' neutrality against Franco-British aggression Will be increased competition btw Norway and Russia over the Barents sea, especially as the energy deposits become exploitable. The coast is barely populated. Most of the population and territory is Russian, as are the largest urban centers, which host most of the population. Archangel on the Barents was a huge trading center between the West and Russia during the period of the Tsars. Serves as the primary operating area for Russia's largest and most powerful fleet, the Northern Fleet. Norway and Russia are the most relevant actors in the region because of their dominance in its oil and natural gas sector. With dwindling oil and natural gas reserves in the south, the defense of Norwegian interests above the Arctic Circle has become increasingly important for Oslo -- as has Norway's relationship with Russia. Russia gains from cooperation with Norway by gaining access to the country's deep-sea drilling technical expertise. Barents Euro-Arctic Council, which was established in 1993 and seeks to strengthen collaboration on social, infrastructural and economic issues among mainly Finland, Sweden, Norway and Russia, which rotate the chairmanship. Because of its small population and distance to consumers, the Barents region has a relatively small manufacturing base. While forestry and fishing are still important, economic activity is increasingly concentrated in mining, hydrocarbon extraction and shipping. Resources in the North Sea are being depleted, and thus access to the vast natural resources farther north is gaining importance. Aside from oil and natural gas, iron ore, diamond, bauxite, nickel, gold and coal deposits are located in the region. The two leaders in exploring for oil and natural gas in the Barents region are Norway and Russia. While they compete for customers and supplies in the Arctic, collaboration is taking place to further develop the sector. Norway's Statoil and Gazprom have collaborated. Due to the region's small population, transport infrastructure in the Barents region is relatively scarce compared to other parts of Europe. While Norway, Sweden, Finland and Russia all have transport links from their core areas in the south up to the north, cross-border connections in particular are weak. Greater interest by shipping companies will also increase the competition between Norwegian and Russian ports. The most important port in terms of tonnage handled in the region is Murmansk in Russia. (The next most important port, Arkhangelsk, is also Russian.) However, the Russian ports have been struggling over the past few years and face growing competition from Norwegian ports. In order to prevent shipment flight to Norway, Russia will upgrade the Murmansk port. Unlike other European countries, Norway cannot be pressured by Russia easily because it is energy independent and is accumulating capital in its sovereign wealth fund, which offers protection against economic pressure. Coupled with its NATO membership, stronger defense ties with Nordic countries and technical expertise that Russia hopes to profit from, Oslo should be able to negotiate with Moscow on an equal level despite its small population.

Ethiopia

Capital-Addis Ababa Formerly known as 'Abyssinia' Former Italian colony, for a brief time. Terrorist Groups- Oromo Liberation Front, Ogaden National Liberation Front - do not us suicide tactics Invaded Somalia in 2006 - Overthrew Islamic Courts Union (al-Shabaab's predecessor) in 07 Still has troops in Somalia-unilateral intervention, as opposed to Kenya and Uganda, which are supporting African Union troops Like Kenya, houses large Somali population-displaced refugees and small Somali-ethnic territory - 3rd largest ethnic group in Ethiopia Want to upgrade links from Addis Ababa to Djibouti - lost their outlet to sea after seperation from Eritrea. Economic development is focused on center of country, near capital Until recently, relied on antiquated French colonial railway built in 1991 and linking Addis Abbaba to Djibouti. Being replaced with new standard guage railway. Relies on Djibouti for all international trade. Also planning on smaller railways to all corners of country's vast territory. Investments have been made by BRICS countries - Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Especially China, because they own half of Djibouti port. Like Kenya and Tanziania, inefficient transportation is delaying its rise to a manufacturing power. Brazil considering link to meet up w South Sudan (would align with proposed pipeline from Juba through Ethiopia to Djibouti, threatened by Juba Lamu corridor). Russia considering link to Lamu (would provide second option for exports). Also building a new road network (most are still gravel). Will transition to asphalt Encouraging oil exploration in Ethiopia, but only potential pipelines are the lackluster S. Sudan option. Construction of this pipe from Juba, through Ethiopia, and to Djibouti has no financing. Italian invasion of Ethiopia - 35-36. Politically, the war is best remembered for exposing the inherent weakness of the League of Nations. Both Italy and Ethiopia were member nations and yet the League was unable to control Italy or to protect Ethiopia when Italy clearly violated the League's own Article X.

Palau

Islands include Peleliu

Uganda

Kampala President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni - Since '86. Very repressive and authoritarian. Formed the National Resistance Army to help depose Amin. Ended support for M23, which had provided vehicles, weapons, equipment, and special operation forces, after intense international pressure. Loss of M23 minimizes access to smuggled minerals from east Congo. Worried that Lord's Resistance Army and Allied Democratic Forces (Muslim militia opposed to Ugandan govt) may use Kivu territory. Population is located in interior, away from coast. Would be forced to move industrial products and manufacturing products inland due to population away from coast. Attractive bc of its low cost of operations - large, cheap and stable workforces. But current transportation inadequacy cancels out gains. Only functioning pipeline system in East Africa. Ships from Mombassa refinery to inland Kenya. But there are plans to build a new section to Uganda. Would lower Kampala's fuel costs considerably, since the country depends on fuel trucked in from Kneya. A further spur could be added to Rwanda. Yet Uganda plans to construct its own refinery in Hoima More ambitious plan is oil pipeline from Lamu Port to S. Sudan/Ethiopia. Primary purpose would be to give Juba an alternative energy option. No funding yet. Would be serviced by new refinery in Lamu, and would extend to Ethiopia. If built, would likely extend to recent oil finds in Uganda Promising discoveries of oil near Lake Albert, leading govt to fasttrack the building of Hoima refinery. Does not produce any hydrocarbons, but will within 5 years. UK, France, and China are leading exploration in Lake Albert. Some natural gas too. Idi Amin - president from 71-79. Subject of 'Last King of Scotland'. Was commander of the army before launching coup. Killed around 300,000 people. Moved away from the west and supported Soviets, Libya, and East Germany. Declared he had conquered the Brits. Tried to annex the Kagera region of Tanzania in '78 and started Uganda-Tanzania war. Lost and his regime collapsed, lived in exile in Libya and Saudi Arabia. East African Community - Common currency - Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi. One of the steps towards forming a unified East African Federation. Currency makes sense especially for Kenya and Uganda. Kenya is the dominant exporter, Uganda is the dominant importer. Uganda and Tanzania have the potential to be large gas and oil producers, which could lead to FDI dramatically appreciating the country's currency (Dutch disease). Common currency would mitigate these risks. But a single currency makes it difficult for individual countries to deal w their own problems, since monetary policy will become responsibility of the East African Central Bank. East African monetary union will be slow to develop over 10 years asa its member states harmonize their financial systems and institute necessary reforms. The heart of the EAC is the relationship btw Uganda and Kenya - Cores of the two countries are adjacent. Kenya's nucleus lies in its western highlands, while Uganda's lies on the northern shores of Lake Victoria. The two nations are thus linked an form a somewhat unified economy. Two countries complement each other - Uganda's traditional economy is agricultural, while Kenya strives to be the region's industrial and manufacturing hub. The EAC's other members are only an extension of this relationship.Uganda is Kenya's largest export partner, receiving more goods and commodities from its neighbor than to the rest of the bloc combined. Will only grow as infrastructure improves. Not to mention Uganda will begin exporting oil and gas to Kenya. South Sudan is essentially a client state of Kampala. Kampala has deployed special operations troops to secure Juba's airport. Uganda has extensive military and political ties with South Sudan that trace back to the region's civil war for independence. Uganda also has extensive peacekeeping experience from Somalia and the DRC. Uganda may look to secure Kiir's safety as well. Uganda requires stability in Juba for its own economy. Kampala has shown a strong preference for Kiir, but regardless it needs stability. Uganda supported the Sudanese People's Liberation Movement with sanctuary, weapons, and training. Wanted to block Sudanese expansion. Feared Khartoum could manipulate the tribal allegiances that flow across the Ugandan border, making Uganda Sudan's client state. SPLM kept Sudan on the defensive and far away from Uganda, establishing a buffer btw the two. Sudan countered by supporting its own client, the Lord's Resistance Army - destabilized and kept Ugandan forces on the defensive. Unlike ethiopia and its mountains or Kenya and its desert, there are no natural boundaries btw Uganda and South Sudan, allowing the populations to move freely. Now the SPLA is no longer a strategic threat to Khartoum, and the LRA is no longer a threat to Uganda. Meanwhile Uganda is an emerging PC16 country positioned to attract manufacturing activities relocating from the east. Instability in Juba spilling over into Uganda could halt foreign investment in energy and transportation infrastructure. And Kampala's oil fields are less than 200 miles from the border with South Sudan. Could undermine confidence in proposed refinery and pipeline projects. So Uganda will take the lead in mediating the Dinka and Nuer tribal clashes.

Malaysia

Mahathir bin Mohammad developed swiftly and improved quality of life and governance

Philippines

Manila Former Spanish colony

Comoros

One of few French colonies outside of West Africa

Netherlands

PM - Mark Rutte Coalition govt - liberal People's Party for Freedom and Democracy & the Labor Party - Are losing support rapidly. Opposition - Party for Freedom (right wing)- anti-Muslim and anti-Euro. Proportional representation for elections make it easier for fringe parties to enter parliament. Provided critical support for fragile coalition. One of the strongest euroskeptic parties in Europe Royal Dutch/Shell - jointly owned with the UK Large peaceful protest in Gronigen (Far northern province) against unemployment caused by the shutdown of an aluminum smelting plant. Could be reminiscent of Red Caps or Pitchfork movements - fertile ground for new protest movements to spread. Regional issues, seperate from political parties and trade unions, have catalyzed growing frustrations from diverse segments of society, leading to protests spreading throughout country. Group is called Groningers in Opstand (Rebellious Groningers). There is broad discontent in the region over the negative effects of natural gas exploration and feelings of neglect by the central government. The Freedom Party will try to fuel protests, hoping to attract voters for the European Parliament elections in May. The Groningen natural gas field is one of the largest in the world. But expanding exploration has led to earthquakes, triggering popular discontent. But revenue from the field is critical source of income for the govt, so there is little room to slow down production, especially with finances so tight. The northern provinces of the country typically have higher unemployment than the rest of the country. The north depends far more on industry, energy, and agriculture, while the south is more oreinted towards services and logistics. The north also has a far more rapidly declining and aging population than the south. Netherlands is a core eurozone and EU country. Depends on exports even more so than Germany (Germany depends on exports for 50% of the nation's GDP, Netherlands is 88%. So it depends on the EU's common market. In response to the rise of the Freedom Party, the coalition will likely reduce its efforts to meet EU deficit targets. Will adopt some of the elements of the Euroskeptics political agenda to constrain public anger (similar to moves by the UK). Will work to limit Brussels' influence on national matters. Will call for stricter social security use by foreigners and resist infringement on national sovereignty by the EU. Does not produce much liquid fuel. But plays an important role as a European liquid fuels transportation and processing hub. The Netherlands is among the largest importers and exporters of crude oil and petroleum products in the world. A number of large producers transport crude oil to Dutch ports, most notably Rotterdam, a considerable proportion of which is then re-exported either as crude or as refined product. Extensive oil storage and refining capacity. Second-largest producer and exporter of natural gas in Europe (10 worldwide), second only to Norway. Most of its natural gas fields are located offshore in the North Sea, although a number of them are located onshore, including Groningen, one of the ten largest natural gas fields in the world. Pipelines connect the gas to the UK, Germany, and Belgium. The Gas Access to Europe (GATE) LNG terminal became operational in September 2011, making the country a LNG importer/exporter. Imports coal from Columbia and South Africa. Imports oil from from Russia, Nigeria, the United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia, and Norway. Rotterdam - One of the largest ports in the world. Its strategic location at the Rhine-Meuse-Scheldt delta on the North Sea and at the heart of a massive rail, road, air and inland waterway distribution system extending throughout Europe is the reason that Rotterdam is often called the "Gateway to Europe". Was the world's busiest port from 1962 to 2004, when it was surpassed by Shanghai. The Rotterdam Blitz was the aerial bombardment of Rotterdam by the Luftwaffe on 14 May 1940, during the German invasion of the Netherlands in World War II. The objective was to support the German troops fighting in the city, break Dutch resistance and force the Dutch to surrender. Even though preceding negotiations resulted in a ceasefire, the bombardment took place nonetheless, in conditions which remain controversial, and destroyed almost the entire historic city centre, killing nearly nine hundred civilians and leaving 30,000 people homeless. The psychological and physical success of the raid led the Germans to threaten to destroy the city of Utrecht if the Dutch Government did not surrender. The Dutch capitulated early the next morning. Netherlands Antilles - major refining hub. The ABC Islands of Aruba, Bonaire, and Curaçao are in located just off the Venezuelan coast about a thousand miles west of the Lesser Antilles n the Netherlands, the government has said times of ever-deeper integration are over and that the boundaries on Brussels' power should be made clearer.

United Kingdom

PM David Cameron Opposition - UK Independence Party, traditionally the Labor Party. Electoral system is specifically designed to curb its popularity - the winner-take-all system means it will be underrepresented in parliament. Announced first nuclear reactor in Europe since Fukushima Natural gas in North Sea is declining Largest oil producer in Europe (19), second largest natural gas producer (20) Attempts to transition to renewables are countered by shale development Relies largely on coal for electricity (24) Hoping to gain greater exposure for energy firms and exports to Iran's large domestic consumer base PM Benjamin Disraeli 1874-80. Jewish. Was strongly tied and affectionate to German Chancellor Otto Von Bismarck. Each prided themselves in being realists who despised politicians concerned with humanitarian concerns. Both hated British Liberal politician William Ewart Gladstone, a pious Christian moralist. Dealt with the Eastern Question - Russian threats to the empire, which would dominate geopolitics until WWI. Dealt with how to deal with the slow demise of the Ottoman Empire. Ottoman cruelty to the Balkan's Christian Orthodox subjects in Bulgaria, Greece, and Serbia. But Ottoman collapse would allow Russian czar to extend sphere of influence throughout the Balkans, uniting the Slavs of Serbia and Bulgaria with Russia. Britain feared Russian threats to India and Central Asia. Decided Turkey must be propped up as long as possible. For Disraeli, foreign policy was about naked national interests or it was nothing; for Gladstone, foreign policy was about humanitarian crusade or it was nothing. One faction hated the Turks, the other the Russians. Disraeli knew the Bulgarian atrocities were providing the Russians an opportunity to invade under the guise of humanitarian gesture, which is what the Russians did a year later. Disraeli propped up the Turks, allowing the empire to limp on until WWI. Owns the two Channel Islands near France, to the west of Cotentin peninsula. They include two separate bailiwicks: the Bailiwick of Guernsey and the Bailiwick of Jersey. Were occupied by Nazi Germany. Set up concentration camps. Battle of Britain - Also called the 'Blitz' - summer and fall 1940. The name is derived from a famous speech delivered by Prime Minister Winston Churchill in the House of Commons: "... the Battle of France is over. I expect that the Battle of Britain is about to begin". The objective of the campaign was to gain air superiority over the Royal Air Force (RAF), especially Fighter Command. From July 1940, coastal shipping convoys and shipping centres, such as Portsmouth, were the main targets; one month later the Luftwaffe shifted its attacks to RAF airfields and infrastructure. As the battle progressed the Luftwaffe also targeted aircraft factories and ground infrastructure. Eventually the Luftwaffe resorted to attacking areas of political significance and using terror bombing strategy. The failure of Germany to achieve its objectives of destroying Britain's air defences, or forcing Britain to negotiate an armistice or an outright surrender, is considered its first major defeat and a crucial turning point in the Second World War. By preventing Germany from gaining air superiority, the battle ended the threat that Hitler would launch Operation Sea Lion, a proposed amphibious and airborne invasion of Britain. By May 1941 the threat of an invasion of Britain had passed, and Hitler's attention had turned to Operation Barbarossa in the East Operation Sea Lion - Planned invasion of Britain following the fall of France. For any likelihood of success, however, the operation required air and naval supremacy over the English Channel, neither of which the Germans ever achieved during or after the Battle of Britain. chamberlain appeasement - Allowed the signing of Munich Agreement. When Hitler continued his aggression, Chamberlain pledged Britain to defend Poland's independence if the latter were attacked, an alliance that brought Britain into war when Germany attacked Poland in 1939. Municipal elections scheduled for 2014. Scotland will try and hold an independence referendum in September. Gained a modest victory when the EU allowed member countries to regulate their own shale sectors, which the UK had lobbied for extensively. British Prime Minister David Cameron, amid growing pressure from conservative factions, has promised to renegotiate Britain's relationship with the European Union in order to repatriate decision-making on certain issues. London is interested in renegotiating its links with the European Union, keeping some elements, such as the free trade agreement, while scrapping others, such as social legislation and potentially immigration.

Pakistan

PM Nawaz Sharif. Leads conservative govt. (90-93, 97-99). Pakistan Muslim League. One of Pakistan's wealthiest men. Ordered Pakistan's first nuclear test. Was exiled in Saudi Arabia by Musharraf. Main opposition leader - Imran Khan. Party rules the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province, and is trying to blockade NATO supply route. Celebrity and former champion cricketeer. Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf ("Movement for Justice") founder.The party is an anti-status quo movement advocating for an egalitarian and modern model of Islamic democratic welfare state. It is the fastest growing political party in Pakistan. Hoping talks w Afghan Taliban will make it easier to deal with Pakistani Taliban. Pakistani Taliban demand govt shut down, end US drone strikes, and implement Sharia Going through severe economic downturn - power and energy conflict. US drone strikes in northwest tribal badlands. Leaked reports state Pakistan's secret endorsement of strikes Pervez Musharraf - 1999-2008 - Military coup in 99. Was appointed by Nawaz. Mastermind behind Kargil. Then put Nawaz under house arrest and in jail. Helped the US fight the Taliban. Resigned under threat of impeachment in 2008, self-exiling himself to London. Returned in 2013 despite Taliban threats, and was going to run for presidency. Was indicted by courts for involvement in assasination of Bhutto, and barred a spot in the election. Pakistan People's Party (PPP) - 2008-13 North Waziristan is the hub province for jihadists Pakistan and Indian military have had the worst clashes in the last decade over the last year. Cannot meet domestic energy demands - rolling blackouts. Imports small amounts of oil and has multiple refineries (#56) The Oil and Gas Development Company Limited (OGDCL) Has no infrastructure to import natural gas, but trying to build lNG import. #23 worldwide Death of Tehrik-i-Taliban leader Hakeemullah Mehsud in US drone strike in North Waziristan, Just a few months after his chief deputy, Wali-ur-Rehman was killed in strike. Founder of organization, Baitullah Mehsud was also killed by drone in 2009. Could be a major opportunity for Pakistani govt to challenge Pakistani Taliban. Very likely to be leadership struggle, potential for infighting and splitting Saudis floating the possibility that they could acquire nuclear weapons from Pakistan. Relations with Pakistan are strong - Saudis have provided Pakistan w more aid than any other country outside the Arab world. Was one of the only countries to support Pakistan's nuclear test in '98. But after blowback that Abdul Qadeer Khan was sharing nuclear technology in 2004, fear of US cutoff of aid, and fear that Iran could destabilize Afghanistan further in retaliation, makes this unlikely. It's situation is very similar to Israel and Saudis - fears US withdrawal from Afghanistan will leave it on its own Is one of three countries chronically plagued by polio Has lost much of its influence in Afghanistan. Saudis will look to pick up the slack. Saudi-Pakistani cooperation against Iran could take place in Afghanistan Has become a major battleground for anti-Shia violence. Newly appointed army chief Gen. Raheel Sharif. Took over after Gen Kayani stepped down after 6 years, where he transitioned country towards democracy. Nawaz Sharif wants to bring the army under greater civilian control, but also needs a capable general who can fight Taliban rebels and handle the NATO withdrawal in Afghanistan. Army has always run Pakistan. Even when civilian leadership, intelligence establishment runs from behind the scenes. Only since Gen Pervez Musharraf stepped down seven years ago, has central gov grown stronger. Have seen democratization due to rise of civil society, private media, and independent judiciary. Most of the senior military/intell figures are retiring. Next big appointment will be chief of Inter-Services Intelligence agency (ISI). Raheel Sharif and Nawaz Sharif come from common Kashmiri-Punjabi background, and Raheel is familiar with many of Nawaz's inner circle. Raheel does not have much experience with political matters. Both men want to revive normalization of relations with India. Musharraf had opposed Nawaz's peace process in the past. Both want to move away from the notion that India is the principal threat to the country, towards fighting the jihadists inside Pakistan. Nawaz Sharif himself was a protege of Pakistan's longest-serving military dictator, Gen Mohammed Zia-ul-Haq (77-88). But has always struggled for power w military since first becoming PM in '90. His own army chief appointee in 93, Gen Waheed Kakar, forced Sharif out of office. During his second term in 98, Sharif forced out new chief Gen Jehangir Karamat, when he wanted to create national security council that could allow army formal role in policymaking. Was replaced with Musharraf, who was expected to be subordinate to Sharif. Sharif fired the General after Kargil miniwar with India, replacing him w ISI chief Lt. Gen. Ziauddin Butt. But new coup in 1999. Nawaz was inspired by Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party, which has established civilian supremacy over Turkish military. Muhammad Ali Jinnah - Founded Pakistan. Originally advocated Hindu-Muslim unity. Jinnah resigned from the Congress when it agreed to follow a campaign of satyagraha, or non-violent resistance, advocated by the influential leader, Mohandas Gandhi. By 1940, he believed Muslims should have their own state. Only head of state of Pakistan for a year until he died. Zulfikar Ali Bhutto 73-77 PM. Founded the PPP, a centre-left, democratic socialist political party. Nationalized institutions. Was executed in 79. Bhutto was deposed by his appointed army chief General Zia-ul-Haq in a bloodless coup before being controversially tried and executed by the Supreme Court of Pakistan in 1979 for authorising the murder of a political opponent Benazir Bhutto. PM from 88-90 and 93-96. PPP, like her father. She conceded her defeat in the 1997 Parliamentary elections and went into self-imposed exile in Dubai, United Arab Emirates in 1999. After nine years of self-exile, she returned to Pakistan on 18 October 2007, after having reached an understanding with President Pervez Musharraf, by whom she was granted amnesty and all corruption charges were withdrawn. Benazir Bhutto was assassinated in a bombing on 27 December 2007, after leaving PPP's last rally in the city of Rawalpindi, two weeks before the scheduled 2008 general election in which she was a leading opposition candidate. Mohammad Zia-ul-Haq - Bloodless coup in 77.Ruled for ten years and built up army considerably due to Soviet threat from Afghanistan - instrumental for the US. Died in a plane crass in 88. Pakistan's longest-serving head of state. Led coup against Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and had him executed. Zia is a polarising figure in Pakistan, credited by some for preventing wider Soviet incursions into the region as well as economic prosperity, but decried for weakening democratic institutions and passing laws encouraging Islamic fundamentalism. Siachen Conflict - a military conflict between India and Pakistan over the disputed Siachen Glacier region in Kashmir. India kept the glacier territory. Had not been demarcated on borders post-independence. Mohammad Ayub Khan (58-69) was president of Pakistan from 1958 to 1969, giving birth to modern-day Pakistan. He introduced a system of basic democracies in 1960. Came to power through military coup. Allied with the West. His legacy remains mixed; he is credited with economic prosperity and what supporters dub "the decade of development", but is criticized for beginning the first of the army's incursions into civilian politics, and policies that later led to the Bangladesh crisis. Pakistan wants to ensure a friendly Afghan government. This is why it has sheltered Taliban from US military power, so that Islamabad can use the group as a proxy to ensure a pro-Pakistan Afghanistan following the US withdrawal. The Pakistanis are horrified about being surrounded by a hostile India and an either pro-India or agressive Afghanistan Pakistani Taliban will launch a new offensive against the Duran Line. Sharif will seek to continue civilian control over the military by taking advantage of his new military chief (the first since the Musharraf era). Slow electricity production increases will result in somewhat less power outages. Conflict in North Waziristan - US will decline drone strikes since the gov is in talks with Taliban. Pakistani gov and jihadists are using the time offered by negotiations to rearm and prepare for war again. Over the decade since war began in north Waziristan, the gov has negotiated w Taliban 5 times. Every time truce is reached (every year from 04-'09), hostilities restart days after. The last deal in the SWAT region actually emboldened Taliban to expand the boundaries of their emirate, forcing the gov to launch its most powerful offensive yet. Retook SWAT and south waziristan, but have kept away from north waziristan. Has been hesitant to enter northern Waziristan bc its forces are spread thin amongst SWAT and the remaining six districts of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas. The north is also home to Hafiz Gul Bahadur, a powerful tribal warlord who has remained neutral throughout the conflict -- is a key base for Afghan Taliban's Haqqani network. But the group continued to hit high profile security and military targets. In response the Pakistani air force has been bombing the area heavily, and thousands are fleeing in anticipation of a major land assault. The ruling Pakistani Muslim League has endorsed an all out attack. Right before attacking, Sharif reached out for peace one last time. Sharif's center-right constituency supports talks, as does his main rival, Imran Khan, who's right-wing nationalist Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaaf party controls the northern Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province. Islamist parties have made sure to insert themselves in the negotiations, not wanting to be overshadowed and kept out of the political process in the future. Is the potential for Taliban to enter the political mainstream and work together w the Islamists to form a powerful coalition. In reality, the jihadists want to drag negotiations out until Afghanistan destabilizes again so they can take advantage of the political vacuum. Gov largely knows this but hopes these negotiations will bring out divisions within Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan. Gov also wants to show the public that it did everything it could to prevent war, but the Taliban were stubborn.

Israel

PM Benjamin Netanyahu Israel will be angered by negotiations w Iran, but it needs US military hardware and the US industrial base - Israel risks being rapidly outgunned, its military, industrial, and demographic base is too weak Found out its influence in US is not as strong as it believed Went to Russia to try to get Putin to reject negotiations with Iran Israel has outgrown its dependence on the US. US has entered a new period where it wants a mature Israel that can pursue its interests without recourse to the US. US will leave Israel to pursue its own interests, but if those interests dont serve US interests, like building settlements, US can simply order them to stop by threatening to change its relationship with Israel. Israel's current strategic position is excellent. Peace treaty with Egypt remains in place. Syria is in an insolvable civil war. Hezbollah does not seem inclined to wage another war w Israel. Palestinians are divided among themselves. Faces no existential threats, aside from nuclear weapons in Iran. But refining uranium is completely insufficient in itself to develop a weapon. Complex technologies, including advanced electrical systems and sensors. Far beyond Iranian capabilities, seeing how long it took Iran to develop simply poorly enriched uranium. Weapon needs to be engineered to extreme tolerances, formed to be rugged and compact. Mounted on very reliable missile or aircraft. Iran has neither missiles nor aircraft with necessary range to attack Israel. Nations do not think of deploying nuclear weapons without extensive underground tests. Can't secretly develop weapons. Would never make a first attempt as an attack, because it would most likely fail. Won't come from sea bc Israel has extremely efficient maritime interdiction systems, and US monitors Iranian ports. Suitcase bombs are FAR larger than a suitcase, would be impossible to sneak into Israel. Israel's air force is too small to carry out simultaneous strikes on multiple facilities. Couldn't simply be carried out from air. Would require special operations forces on the ground to try to determine the effect of strikes. MAIN THREAT to Israel with negotiations -- Washington wants to have multiple relations with regional actors, not just Israel and Saudis. US is moving away from direct intervention to subtle manipulation. The more relationships US has in region, the less significant Israel is to Washington's strategy. In this situation, Israel becomes not the anchor of US policy, but one of many considerations. Israel is a small and weak power. Its power has been magnified by the weakness of its neighbors. Has lost control of America's regional strategy. Has also lost control of America's political process through public and congress. Netanyahu hates the negotiations not bc of nuclear weapons but bc of the strategic shift of the US. Relies on energy imports. Natural gas found offshore, Mari-B field. New Tamar field will come online soon. Planned LNG terminal. Leviathan field is the biggest - but ongoing debate over whether the gas should be exported or used internally. Arish-Ashkelon pipeline brings gas from Egypt. But Tamar and Leviathan may allow Israel to be major LNG exporter in the future. Israel will work closely with Turkey and Saudi Arabia, despite the Flotilla 2010 incident and not having normalized relations with the Saudis. Will cooperate behind the scenes. Relations with Turkey. Earlier in 2013, US pressured netanyahu to apologize for the flotilla deaths, and to compensate the families of those killed. Turkey shares Israel's fear of jihadists in Syria. Turkey's regional dynamics quickly changed when the Arab Spring Islamist governments failed. Flotilla raid 2010 - Israel raided six ships bringing aid to Gaza. 10 were killed. Ships were detained in Israel. Was in international waters. Had set off from Cyprus. The MV Marmara held somewhat radical activists, who fought the Israelies. Israel has been very wary of water vulnerabilities and upstream water management schemes. Has used military in the past to secure water resources. When Syria tried to construct diversions into the Banjas River (threatening 10% of Israel's water), Israel attacked the infrastructure. In 2002, when southern Lebanon began installing pumping stations and irrigation pipelines on the Hasbani River, Ariel Sharon threatened military action. Is trying to mitigate one of its inherent geographic constraint. Seeking new efforts at desalination and recycling. New desalination plant - Sorek - world's largest, which just came online. For groundwater, Israel relies on two main aquifiers - Coastal Acquifier and Mountain Aquifer (both located under the Gaza and West bank). Surface water is concentrated in the north and east. It is part of the Jordan River System. More than half of its supplies originate outside its borders - Lebanon and Syria. Arab states were angered at Israel's construction of the National Water Carrier (series of canals, pipelines, and pumping stations moving from the Sea of Galilee in the water-rich north to areas of higher demand in the central and southern zones), which diverted water from the Sea of Galilee. Maintaining control of the Golan heights gives Israel an advantage in dealing with Syria and helps guarantee access to the Sea of Galilee. Israel and Jordan's peace treaty in 94 dealt with water rights, as well as Oslo agreements with PNA - but West Bank remains heavily dependent on Israel for access to water. Israel has developed a highly organized water management system, integrating the whole country. Israel is also a pioneer and global leader in irrigation technology -since agriculture remains the largest water consumer in the country. Push for desalination began after major drought in 98-99. Several droughts since then have drove home the vulnerability of israel's water supply. Increasing population pressures limited water resources. But desalination remains far more energy-intensive than naturally sourced water. Electricity grid is seeking to shift further toward natural gas and away from coal in the near future. Israel's founders wanted to create a socialist (not communist) Jewish state - spearheaded by the Labor Party. Extended attrition warfare is not an option for Israel - Israel must choose the time, place, and sequence of any war. Must also never face a war and internal uprising of Arabs at the same time. Israel's major problem - Its national industrial base was insufficient to provide it with the technological wherewithal to maintain its military superiority, and that it lacks the manpower to produce all the weapons it would need to field an army. Knew that it could only survive if it acquired a political patron who had that industrial base. First patron was Soviets, then France (at a time when France was facing a hostile Arab world). Not until 1967 did third patron become the US, when US saw Israel as a useful counterweight to a pro-soviet Egypt and Syria, and a useful base of operations for Eastern Mediterranean. 67 war first targeted Egypt, then Jordan, then Syria. War with simultaneous uprisings in occupied territories would leave Israel's supply lines cut. Cannot deal with intifada inside borders at the same time as war outside. Also cannot allow the Arabs to form a coalition.

Central Europe

Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria (six). Were heavily integrated into the Soviet military-industrial complex. After cold war, all adopted parliamentary democracies. Quickly all joined NATO (99-2004) and EU (04-07) Financial crisis of 2008 prompted another strategic shift. EU no longer offered the promise of prosperity and high growth it did throughout last two decades, and Russia was on the rise due to high energy prices. New reality in Central Europe where the EU is no longer as strong and prosperous as it once was, and Russia is no longer as weak and distracted as it once was. Each country has pursued an independent path to balancing btw Russia and Europe, bc Central European geography is not uniform. Carpathian Mountains shield southern states from Russia, Romania and Bulgaria are located in mountainous and weakly-integrated Balkan Peninsula, Poland is located on the North European Plain. Rather than acting as a bloc, as they have for decades, each country is balancing btw East and West based on its own national interests. Have tried to group tegether through the Visegrad Four (designed to tie cooperation on security and economic matters). But Poland is the only country to step up military spending in recent years. They have been unwilling to pool and share strategic military assets, and is unlikely that joint weapons procurement and the Visegrad Battlegroup will become effective. Only steps for integration will be the energy/pipeline interconnectors to link their energy grids, largely thanks to the Third Energy Package, eliminating Russian stake in the distribution sectors. So many different monetary and fiscal policies - tough to bridge the gap btw them all. All seek US security presence. The realignment from Russia to the West was more successful on the defense front than economically. The Intermarium was suggested - an alliance of all six countries. Makes logical, but not historical sense. Confederation of integrated militaries and economies will not emerge any time soon.

Tunisia

Tunis Ennahda party - Islamist - ruling transitional govt. Is poised to step down in response to nationwide strikes, protests, and uprisings. Was supposed to have left by end of October, but has been delayed. One of the region's most liberal Islamist parties. Has had trouble keeping its coalition partners such as Ettakol in line. Opposition - Call for Tunis Has been lucky with Arab Spring - military has largely stayed out of domestic political affairs, civilian population has avoided revolutionary violence and armed revolt, the bureaucratic apparatus created by Ben Ali did not completely collapse, basic social services continued, and economic operations went largely uninterrupted because business and industrial leaders never left. President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali (87-11)- Took over in bloodless military coup from Bourguiba. Ruled by one-party system under centralized control by Neo Destour party, relying on political and economic patronage, as well as broad subsidization to maintain popular support Habib Bourguiba - Founder of Tunisia - 57-87 Without a strong centralized political force, various political elements of Ben Ali regime have become individualized units working for their own interests rather than those of the nation. Former Ben Ali officials are now members of rival political parties and have blocked Ennahda at every chance. Resisted transitional governments efforts to liberalize the economy and privatize state-owned industries bc their interests were at risk. Has left country unable to confront rising security threats. Next step is elections to ratify new constitution and parliament. Rifts growing between military and government. Ansar al Sharia was implicated in assasinations of secular opposition figures Chokri Belaid in February and Mohammad Brahmi in July, which prompted Ennahda to step down. Conservative, Islamist interior (Mount Chambi)- historically underdeveloped, illiterate, and excluded from Ben Ali's economic patronage, compared to cosmopolitan port cities. Has resulted in burgeoning Salafist recruitment. North Africans may comprise at least half of all foreign fighters supporting the Syrian rebels, most from Tunisia and Libya. Libyan border is porous and unstable. Western border is long desert and mountainous territory, making detection difficult. Transit corridor linking jihadist groups in northeastern Algeria to military training grounds in Libya, as well as weapons and equipment. Not a significant exporter of crude oil or gas, unlike its neighbors. Not a crucial manufacturing or processing center. Largest commercial port - Rades - frequently subjected to labor strikes, limiting effectiveness as transshipment hub. Algeria is trying to influence political deal and stability in Tunis. Military and intelligence cooperation, patrolling borders, and joint operations in Chaambi to seize weapons caches and militants. Wants to prevent insecurity from spreading to Algeria. Ansar al Shariah in Tunisia - maintain contacts with AQIM, but are much more closely tied to local and national militant structures in its own country. Tends to be more nationalistic than AQIM, which seeks to create an emirate across northern Africa.

Iraq

Baghdad PM Nouri al-Maliki (06-present). Began his political career as a Shia dissident under Saddam Hussein's dictatorship in the late 1970s and rose to prominence after he fled a death sentence into exile for 24 years. During his time abroad, he became a senior leader of Dawa, coordinated the activities of anti-Saddam guerillas and built relationships with Iranian and Syrian officials whose help he sought in overthrowing Saddam. Islamic Dawa Party 33 million Saddam followed Baathism - Arab socialism opposed to Western colonization Shiite majority state Has replaced Syria as Iran's main ally Fifth largest oil reserves in world Most Iraqi natural gas has flared Iraqi stability may be part of Iranian-US negotiations - since they started, Maliki has been reaching out to Sunnis and trying to incorporate them more into govt Political landscape in Iraqi Kurdistan in a familiar, fractious state - Patriotic Union of Kurdistan under Jalal Talabani is in an internal crisis - Kurdistan Democratic Party under Massoud Barzani (Fought Baghdad during Iran-Iraq War) trying to take advantage of its rival's weakened state Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant - Leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Originated in 2004 when Jamaat al-Tawhid and Jihad renamed itself al Qaeda in the Land of the Two Rivers (Iraq), and was led by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi (killed in 2006, was Jordanian). Was the nucleus of coalition called Islamic State of Iraq. Was weakened by Anbar Awakening of 06-07 (After initially accepting al Qaeda in Iraq due to a shared anti-occupation and anti-Shia agenda, Sunni Arabs chafed under AQI's fanatic religious program. AQI responded by terrorizing those it claimed to defend, prompting Sunnis to partner with U.S. forces to rid their communities of these extremists. The model successfully tested in al-Anbar province - once Iraq's most violent - was adopted in other AQI-plagued regions). Also weakened by 2007 surge. Initially provided support to Jabhat al-Nusra, but eventually became strongest jihadist group in Syria. Has tried to subsume Jabhat, which appealed to al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri, who ordered ISIL to confine efforts to Iraq and allow Jabhat to maintain responsibility for Syria. But ignored the order. Is growing in power, and may be the next jihadist group to establish an emirate. Iraq is busy trying to manage intra-Shiite rivalries Zagros mountains seperate border with Iran The oil pipeline connecting Kurdish oil fields to Turkey (Ceyhan) is complete and will be pumping by end of 2013, with or without Baghdad's consent. Represents a Kurdish declaration of independence as much as a Turkish-backed Kurdish declaration of war against Baghdad and its Persian sponsors. They are inching towards quasi-independence. Pipeline was offically meant to feed domestic markets of Kurds. But quietly skirted past the power plant it was supposed to feed and headed towards Turkey. Kurdistan Regional Government and Turkey are working to circumvent Baghdad and export Kurdish energy. Meanwhile, Kurdish peshmerga forces are spreading to protect the two main cities from jihadists - Arbil and the disputed city of Kirkuk. Baghdad can turn a blind eye to jihadist attacks in Kurdistan to undermine investor confidence, but Kurdish security forces are strong. But once Baghdad redevelops its air force and military, game will change. Iran will try to reinforce its Shiite allies to strongarm the Kurds. But the best tool of Iran and Baghdad is to split the Kurds from within. Kurds are naturally competitive. Kurdistan Democratic Party and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan were in full-on civil war from 94-96 that arose out of a property dispute. More willing to turn to their adversaries than their ethnic kin, the KDP asked Ankara for assistance, while the PUK reached out to Iran and Saddam. Kurdistan Democratic Party led by Massoud Barzani, and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan led by Jalal Talabani. The region has been split btw Barzani and Talabani clans. KDP rules northern provinces and Arbil, PUK rules Suleimaniyah to South. On the surface, the two have united their peshmerga forces into a single, unified ministry. But there is also the rise of the Gorran movement, a faction that broke away from the PUK when it began dealing with a leadership crisis. It is only a matter of time before Gorran develops its own peshmerga forces. US has publically maintained a 'one Baghdad, one Iraq' policy. Arbil is now a cosmopolitan, gulf sheikdom looking city. New Justice and Development Party in Turkey went from crushing Kurdish autonomy with iron fist to recognizing Kurdish language and cultural rights and seeking peace with the Kurdistan Workers' party. Turkey wanted Kurdistan's oil and gas to fuel heightened consumption and loosen Russia's energy grip. The pipeline might be Turkey's boldest foreign policy move in a very long time. Will receive 250,000-300,000 barrels per day of crude. Saddam sought to eradicate the Kurdish population through chemical attacks in the Anfal campaign of late 1980's. Baathists attacked Kurds in the final years of the Iran-Iraq war. 50-200,000 civilans killed - officially labeled a genocide. Led the US to declare no-fly zone in northern Iraq after Gulf War in 91. Kurds live in area bound by Taurus mountains (southern coast and south eastern anatolia) across the Jazira plateau of northeastern Syria, across northern Iraq, to the northern spine of the Zagros Mountains. Iran Iraq War - 'First Gulf War'. 1980-88. Ended w/ military stalemate and UN Security Council Resolution. Iran was supported by KDP & PUK & Syria. Iraq supported by France, Soviets, US, Saudis, UK, Kuwait, Jordan. 1.25 million killed, regarded as bloodiest conflict since WWII. Begun by iraq when Saddam invaded. Had been a long history of border disputes. Iraq feared Iranian revolution would spread to Shia in Iraq. Made little progress in surprise invasion. Iran quickly retook back all land. Iran was on the offensive for the next 6 years. Mujahadeen-e-Khalq (MEK) sided w/ Iraq. KDP & PUK (Kurds in Iraq) sided w/ Iran. Has largely been compared to WWI in terms of tactics -- trench warfare, barbed wire, machine gun posts, bayonet charges, human wave attacks across no-man's-land, and use of chemical weapons by Iraq. Saddam wanted control of the Shat el-Arab, the river which is current boundary btw the two countries. Iraq had always worried about the vulnerabilities of its oil pipelines. Only had pipeline going through Syria and narrow access to the gulf through west bank of Shatt el-Arab. War of the cities - scud and ballistic missiles fired back and forth amongst capitals and population centers. French and Chinese provided majority of arms to Iraq (France was a very strong ally of Iraq). Kurds threatened northern oil fields of Iraq. Diverted large forces and cut off oil supply. Bombed Kurdish towns with chemical weapons. Tanker War - Iraq reflagged tankers to be Western transports. US and Soviets took down Kuwaiti flags and put up other flags to protect them from strikes. Iraq had essentially persuaded its ally Kuwait to make the iranian navy inneffective and continue supplies flowing to Baghdad. Iran mined seaways. US mistook Iranian passenger jet for fighter jet - killed hundreds. Iraq exited the war with massive army well trained and well equipped. Rather than completely destroy the Islamic State of Iraq after the Anbar Awakening, Sunni tribal sheikhs decided to allow the jihadist group to survive so that it could be used against the surging Shiite power in the country. ISIL has gained the largest territory since the US left the country, with Ramadi, Fallujah (both in central Iraq). But has been opposed by strong central govt and local Sunni groups. Started bc PM Nouri al-Maliki dismantled a yearlong anti-Maliki protest camp in Ramadi, which triggered backlash from local Sunni Arab tribesmen. ISIL took advantage of the tensions to seize territory. Saddam Hussein (79-03). Saddam played a key role in the 1968 coup that brought the Baath party to power in Iraq. Ahmed Hassan al-Bakr (president from 68-79). Leading member of the revolutionary Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party, and later, the Baghdad-based Ba'ath Party and its regional organisation Ba'ath Party. Helped to overthrow the monarchy Monarchy was overthrown in 58 by a military coup. In February 1958, King Hussein of Jordan and `Abd al-Ilāh proposed a union of Hāshimite monarchies to counter the recently formed Egyptian-Syrian union - the Arab Federation. But was short lived, as military soon overthrew govt. 1943 Barzani revolt - Kurdish nationalistic insurrection in the Kingdom of Iraq, during World War II. The revolt was led by Mustafa Barzani and was later joined by his older brother Ahmed Barzani, the leader of the previous Kurdish revolt in Iraq. The revolt, initiating in 1943, was eventually put down by the Iraqi assault in late 1945, combined with the defection of a number of Kurdish tribes. As a result, the Barzanis retreated with much of their forces into Iranian Kurdistan Al-Wathbah uprising - 1948 unrest in Baghdad. The protests were sparked by the monarchy's plans to renew the 1930 Anglo-Iraqi Treaty that effectively made Iraq a British protectorate. Nuri al-Said, the Prime Minister of Iraq, was planning on renewing, albeit in a revised form, this 1930 treaty that tied Iraq to British interests, allowed for the unrestricted movement of British troops on Iraqi soil, and provided significant protection to the British-installed Iraqi monarchy.

Nigeria

Capital - Abuja Pres Goodluck Jonathan People's Democratic Party One of few former British colonies in West Africa Onshore energy in terminal decline due to age & militancy/theft - offshore is booming Rise of domestic oil companies - Oando PLC, Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Niger delta militants bunker oil, refine it at illegal camps, then smuggle it out of country All infrastructure development is carried out locally - little central control Is one of the three countries chronically plagued by polio Boko Haram appeared to be rising in 2011 when it quickly transitioned from small, crude devices in Northeast Nigeria to large vehicle bombs in Abuja. By Nigerian military has pushed them back to northeast. Remains focused on survival firstmost. Ansaru - offshoot of Boko Haram created in 2012 with more of a transnational focus outside of Nigeria. Reportedly coordinates its operations with the northern Mali-based al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb and the Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa Unlike Boko Haram, which is based around Borno State in northeastern Nigeria, Ansaru operates in and around Kano State in north-central Nigeria, the heartland of the Hausa-Fulani peoples. India is Nigeria's biggest oil customer. An opposition party finally has the numbers to challenge the long-ruling People's Democratic Party in elections in 2015. The All Progressives Congress has called for Jonathan's impeachment, to which Jonathan threatened treason charges. Was a merger of the four largest opposition parties, with a strong network among northern politicians, including former military ruler Muhammadu Buhari, and other Hausi-Fulani people. Also includes some of the southwester Yoruba population around Lagos. Members of a PDP minority faction split off and joined the opposition, potentially giving the group a majority of both houses and a majority of state governors. They split off when Jonathan would not renounce his candidacy for 2015 presidential elections. In the past, opposition alliances have been thrown together last minute and crumbled. But the APC has formed early. Two governors from north and two from center joined, but most important is Rotimi Amaechi, who is from the wealthy and oil-rich souther state of Rivers and is Jonathan's main political rival. In 2007, PDP was trying to choose which delta governor would take vice presidency under Pres Umaru Yaradua. Then president Olusegu Obasanjo had sought a third term, but was blocked, so he sought a successor who he could control from behind the scenes. Latched onto Jonathan, who was a state governor. Was politically weak with little support base, and so needed Obasanjo's backing. He still has strong influence in the party today. Impeachment and criminal charges is deeply embedded in Nigerian politics. Jonathan has sought in the past to remove Amaechi. Nearly all governors took over when their predecessor was impeached. The faction of the PDP that split was the harshest critic of Jonathan. The PDP retains enough members to precent impeachment, but the beginning of this process will discourage Jonathan from seeking reelection. If Jonathan's party thinks he will lose the election, they will abandon him. Both parties will fight for support in the Delta. The APC will use Amaechi's gang and illicit trade networks, and Jonathan can allow militants to increase their activity. Amaechi will prove a credible VP, with a strong president from the North - the APC's best strategy. But this strategy could unravel Jonathan's amnesty agreement with the Niger Delta militants. Independence in 1960 PDP has ruled from 99-present. General Sani Abacha led a coup d'état which overthrown the President Shonekan and his government. 83-99, 66-79 military ruled. Leaders are frequently deposed - no strongman has ruled for long. In 2014, there will be high violence ahead of party elections in December and national elections in April 2015. Biggest issue will be whethe the souther Niger Delta region upholds the political arrangement to rotate the presidency back to the North. Goodluck Jonathan will face much pressure to decline nomination for reelection, but he will hold up his eligibility thorughout the year so that his support base can reap the financial benefit before finally declining nomination. He will then seek to move for a party elder position to retain influence post-presidency. Jonathan's indecision will cause violence by Boko Haram. Jonathan's administration will be too politically constrained to pass Petroleum Industry Bill to reform and diversify Nigeria's energy sector. Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) has threatened to attack Nigerian oil infrastructure. The group retains the capability to conduct limited attacks against Nigerian military personnel and isolated energy infrastructure, but it no longer possesses the organizational cohesion and covert political backing it had in the mid- to late 2000s that enabled it to disrupt hundreds of thousands of barrels of oil production per day. The group has been remarkably quiet in recent years. Was most active from 2005-10. At this time it was a tool Niger Delta politicians used to obtain a greater share of the oil revenue and more political influence -- the delta was greatly neglected at this point. These militants received protection from the Delta States' political elite. Attacked oil fields, blew up crude oil pipelines, kidnapped foreign oil workers, and essentially held the energy industry hostage, on which the rest of the country depended on. Goal was to increase the Delta's prominence and give its leadership greater stake in political and economic decision-making. Goal began to be achieved when Jonathan was elected VP in 2007. Then Umaru Yaradua died in 2010. Has used patronage to support delta militants. Jonathan doesn't exactly direct the movement, as they were an actor in the region before his political career. But Jonathan owes his career largely to MEND, who virtually assured that a Delta politician would be included on the ticket in 2007. Jonathan at that time was seen as a political lightweight. More attention was given to Peter Odili, who was governor of Rivers' State, the largest oil producing region in the country. Since then, a major amnesty program for MEND militants has been successful. Former militant leaders have received subsidies and business contracts, and have become wealthy urban businessmen. MEND leader Henry Okah, is in South African prison, after being convicted for a car bomb in Abuja in 2010. Whether Jonathan continues leading the Peoples' Democratic Party before 2015 elections, is another question. Several high-ranking party members have refused to renominate him, defecting to form an opposition All Progressives Congress. Rivers state Gov. Rotimi Amaechi is expected to lead this group. There is no real political ideology in Nigeria other than acquiring and defending political and economic power. Whether Amaechi or Jonathan, both will maintain the patronage networks that keep the region subsidized and content.

Troika

European Commission, European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund

Cape Verde

Former Portuguese colony (one of five)

Ghana

Former UK colony - one of few in West Africa Kwame Nkrumah- Led country from 1951 to 1966. Strong supporter of pan-Africanism. Saw himself as Africa's Lenin. Often compared to Nelson Mandela, but he was eventually forced from power.

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India nuclear weapons test in 98 - Came as a surprise - US assumed that the new indian govt would not risk US economic sanctions South Africa nuclear weapons test Arab Israeli War 73 and others German Revolution of 1918-19 Beer Hall Putsch

El Salvador

San Salvador 6 million Spanish for 'The Saviour' - Jesus Christ Is the most densely populated country on the mainland of the Americas. Is highly industrialized. But has been wrecked by social inequality and frequent earthquakes. Economy depends on remittances from US. Civil war in the 80's. (79-92) Sparked by gross inequality with small wealthy elite, who dominate the govt and economy. Left 70,000 dead and 2bn$ in damage. UN ceasefire struck in 92. Conflict btw military-led govt and Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front, a coalition of five leftist guerilla groups. By January 1980, the left-wing political organizations united to form the CRM (Coordinated Revolutionaries of the Masses) and a few months later the left-wing armed groups united to form the DRU (Unified Revolutionary Directorate) which, following its merging with the Communist party in October 1980, was renamed the FMLN (supported by Soviets, Cuba, Nicaragua, and China). Carter and Reagan supported the ruling govt against opposition. Presidential elections on Feb 2 deal mostly with gang truce between Calle 18 and Mara Salvatrucha, the two largest groups in the country. Right wing opposition - Nationalist Republican Alliance. Led by Norman Quijano, who has threatened to declare a state of emergency to target the gangs. Has repeatedly opposed the truce the sides reached in Spring 2012. His party used to conduct mass arrests on the gangs and refuse to negotiate with the leaders. Ruling left wing Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front, led by Salvador Sanchez Ceren. Has opposed the cease fire. Incredible violence between late 70's and early 90's led to mass emigration to the US. The truce specifically targetted gang-on-gang murders, not other crimes such as extortion and kidnapping. Extortion has long been a major form of income for the gangs. The two gangs thus consolidated their extortion campaign. Imprisoned gang leaders still hold major control over their members. Neither gang has any incentive to break the truce at present, since doing so could disrupt their profits from extortion, drug dealing and kidnapping. But in reality, the gangs are only loosely consolidated 'cliques', bound only by a shared name and identity. Individual cliques dissatisfied with their revenues could resume turf war. The ceasefire will likely remain until it is no longer lucrative for the gangs.

South Korea

Seoul Pres. Park Geun-Hye (female). Her father was Park Chung Hee. Ruling Saenuri Party (was known as the conservative Grand National Party (GNP) until it changed its name in 2012) Defense focusing on blue water navy - destroyers, subs, and carriers. Chinese and Japanese have long used amphibious assaults to invade peninsula. South Koreans do not want to be left behind as Chinese modernize their navy and Japan militarizes. Dodko/Takeshima Islands disputed between S. Korea and Japan. Experienced explosive growth in 1970's W/ closed land border at DMZ, entirely dependent on sea-lanes of trade and communication for survival. Conventional military superiority over N. Korea - cruise missiles and fighter-bombers have ability to strike targets throughout North. Has been forced to focus disproportionately on its land forces due to N. Korea, but finally transitioning bc of threats from China and Japan. Second largest importer of LNG behind Japan Thermal power accounts for 2/3 electricity generation Almost no energy resources Park Chung Hee used enlightened rule to develop and create stability. 61-79, when he was assasinated. Initiated military coup in 61. Survived numerous North Korean assasination attempts, but was killed by the chief of his security services. Park led the Miracle on the Han River until 1979, a period of rapid economic growth in South Korea. However, his authoritarian rule saw numerous human rights abuses. Opinion is thus split regarding his legacy between those who credit Park for his reforms and those who condemn his authoritarianism. Older generations who spent their adulthood during Park's dictatorship tend to credit Park for building the economic foundation of the country and protecting the country from the socialist North, as well as leading Korea to economic and global prominence. However, the newer generations of Koreans, including those who fought for democratization, tend to believe his authoritarian rule was unjustified and corrupt, and that he hindered South Korea's transition to democracy. Presidencies of the 'two Kims' Kim Young-sam (93-98) Kim Dae-jung (98-2003) Seoul will now expand their Korean Air Defense Identification Zone (KADIZ), which was originally designed by the US in the 50's. It has long desired to enlarge the zone to include the leodo Reef (small partially submerged rock in East China Sea with S. Korean oceanic research station and helipad), as well as Marado and Hongdo islands, which fall under Japanese ADIZ. Seoul is fearful the China will declare new ADIZ in Yellow Sea. South Korea's healthy energy market and potential to invest in Russia's Far East make stronger ties attractive to Moscow. In November Putin signed bilateral agreements, and is seeking rail and pipeline connectivity. And while Washington is slowing down military support for Seoul, Russia could pick up the slack. Seoul has been essential in privatizing and modernizing ports and shipbuilding in Russia's far East. Russia is wary of China and Japan, so South Korea is an attractive alternative. Would help Russia diversify its economy away from energy. Russia needs a power to play off China and Japan. The korea's are extremely close to Primorsky Krai and Vladivostok. Sakhalin will provide LNG to South Korea. Indonesia and Australia will compete with Moscow for exports to S. Korea. Potential for rail link to Koreas from Primorsky Krai, which would link them up to Trans-Siberian railway. Would most likely serve primarily as a transport for coal into south korea. North Korea would benefit by receiving transit fees. Would make Russian energy more accesible than Australia or Indonesia. Also pipeline through the Koreas. South Korea is the 10th largest importer of energy worldwide. Second largest LNG importer, after Japan, and third largest importer of coal worldwide. Korea Gas Corp - state owned. Conventional thermal power accounts for more than two-thirds of South Korea's electricity generation.

Fixed Exchange Rate

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Kazakhstan

17 million President Nursultan Nazarbayev (since 1989). Was reelected to another 5-year term in 2011. Traditionally Nomadic Iran could be new export partner for Kazakh energy. Is a huge destination for immigrants. Will relax its migration laws. Migration into Kazakhstan will likely increase in the next few years due to migration restrictions in Russia and skyrocketing populations in Central Asia. Could mean local Kazakhs would not be able to compete with cheaper foreign labor. Could also raise ethnic violence and tension. Will raise the quota on the number of migrants allowed into the country and will allow migrant workers to stay in Kazakhstan as long as they hold a Kazakh bank account. Also raises the legal # of foreign migrants a business can hire. In the meantime, huge numbers of Kazakhs are emigrating away to Russia. Also huge numbers of illegal workers. There are three types of migrants - those who cross the porous border during the day to sell fruits and vegetables, then return at night. The second type comprise seasonal workers who come to Kazakhstan between April and August, when the majority of construction, crop collection and sheepherding occurs. The third type comprise migrants who come for a longer term. Approximately 90 percent of these migrants work in unskilled jobs in the construction, mining, trade and agricultural sectors. Sixty percent of those migrating to Kazakhstan are Uzbeks, 25 percent are Kyrgyz, 10 percent are Tajiks and the other 5 percent are mostly Uighurs from China or Turkish citizens Meanwhile, central asia is experiencing a population explosion. Has doubled since 1980, straining each country's resources. Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikstan have had huge numbers of citizens looking elsewhere for jobs. The remittances make up huge chunks of each country's GDP. Almost all of these workers move to Kazakhstan or Russia. Even though they are paid less than nationals, it is still far higher wages than those that exist in their own countries. Kazakhstan is becoming a more reliable migrant country because Russia is seeking to constrict foreign migrant labor. The Kazakh gov knows that regardless of its migrant restrictions, people will enter illegally in huge numbers, meaning no regulation or tax. Gov fears more religiously conservative Tajiks and Uzbeks The West and South of the country has typically been far poorer The Aral Sea's decline over the past 50 years has been the biggest example of water mismanagement in the world. Kazakhstan has been able to restore a small amount of the lake. Regional cooperation is the best way to restore the lake, but that is unlikely given the region's tensions regarding water rights. Growing population and increasing demand will further threaten water resources. The sea itself was once one of the largest lakes in the world, and was in the border btw Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Two rivers feed the lake, originating in the east, in Tajikstan, Kyrgystan, and Afghanistan. Turkmenistan also relies on the rivers, portions of which are diverted to its borders through the Karakum Canal. The Soviets stressed cultivation of cotton in the region. The irrigation of this crop diverted water from the rivers, decreasing the flow into the Aral Sea and increasing salinity. By 1990, had largely eliminated a vibrant fishing industry. Large-scale emigration from the region surrounding the lake, and the area is now one of the poorest in Kazakhstan. The World Bank helped Kazakhstan restore some of the smaller sections of the northern part of the sea. Required building the Kok-Aral dam (completed in 2005) and improving the efficiency of irrigation. Has partially rejuvenated the fishing industry. The restoration of the northern part of the Aral sea is extremely important to the local economy. In the Kazakh state, regions are often dominated by a single industry. The second part of the Aral Sea's restoration has been delayed, because the neighboring countries have not been cooperative. The Kazakh govt sought to restore the northern portion at the expense of the southern. International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea is responsible for reversing the drainage. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan are all downstream nations - but they have greater access to energy reserves and have stronger economies than those upstream. But they remain vulnerable to Kyrgyzstan and Tajikstan. Not to mention the population of Central Asia has doubled since the 1980's. Financial crisis - devalued the 'tenge' by more than 20% , as a result of the emerging markets crisis, largely linked to US Fed reserve tapering. Currency exchanges and shops in Kazakhstan shut down. A currency crisis in the Customs Union (Russia, Kaz, and Belarus) would hamper attempts at expansion. Astana's decision hurt ukraine's already faltering economy.

Serbia

Belgrade 7 million Balkans have been plagued by Habsburg Austrian-influenced north and a Third World Ottoman Turkish-influenced south Political core of Yugoslavia. EU accession is still years away Moscow needs Serbian approval of South Stream. Wants to become Russia's gateway to the Balkans and Central Europe. Has received major loans from Russia state-run oil company Srbijagas

Iran

Capital - Tehran President Hassan Rouhani Opposition - Mujahadeen-e-Khalq IRGC-will oppose negotiations w/ US to protect assets & influence. Has held demonstrations. Knows that negotiations are necessary for survival of regime, but want to retain their status as major center of power. world's 4th largest reserves of oil and 2nd largest natural gas lack of FDI (sanctions) has crippled energy South Pars field enormous - natural gas Main opposition to US negotiations are domestic on both sides Hostage crisis kept 52 diplomats for 444 days Rouhani has backing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei Money in negotiations is not as important as the symbolism of of Iran's demand that assets be unfrozen - Rouhani wants Iranians to see he changed the US's mind. Must free up transactions for National Iranian Oil Company. Rouhani will need a few billion $ to show his policies are working and to bring negotiations to the next level. IRGC has demaned that US not seek regime change. Iran has made it clear that it will temporarily halt 20% enrichment (the level of purity regarded as just a few steps short of weapons-grade), stop installing centrifuges, and open up facilities for inspection. The process underway is IRREVERSIBLE. Some feel it is a time-buying scheme. But the foundations for this were set when the US toppled Saddam, the most formidable adversary to Iran. US and Iran both are battling Sunni jihadists, distrust Russia, and want to maintain oil supply. The nuclear program has been used for a decade as a bargaining chip, in exchange for guarantees of its security and recognition of its regional power. One of the last cold war rivalries will soon end - only N. Korea and Cuba will be left, although Cuba will soon end too Israel will be angered, but it needs US military hardware and the US industrial base - Israel risks being rapidly outgunned, its military, industrial, and demographic base is too weak Saudis have a limited industrial base with which to build military and has to manage internal divisions. Relies on US military sales, contractor support, and domestic control. Washington wants to rely on allies to maintain a regional balance of power. Russia had used its active nuclear collaboration w Iran and the threat of supplying Iran w strategic air defenses as a lever against US. Now, US has more room to interfere w Russian domestic affairs and Russia is worried about Iranians to south. True rapprochement could take years. Took US seven years to normalize relations w China after Nixon's visit in 1972 W/ '53 coup and hostage situation, Iran believes US violated sovereignty, US sees Iran violated basic international law. Clerics regard US as corrupt and evil, US sees Iran as brutal and repressive. But big difference btw rhetoric and action. Strategic reality - Iran is on the defensive - economy is in shambles, Syrian regime is broken, Sunnis threatening Iraq. Not unexpected that talks halted after ten days - no party in negotiations accepts first proposal. Real negotiations will begin after nuclear and sanction issues are addressed. Iranians will use US to repair economy, US will use Iranians to create balance of power w Sunnis. Then US can invest in Iran. Russia is very worried about Iran-US negotiations. Persia and Russia fought large wars btw 1722-1828. In the past, Tehran condemned Moscow's restrictions on religion and alliance w/ Iraq. Russia had helped constuct Iran's nuclear power plans and sold military hardware, along w/ helping iran w. Israeli and US/British intelligence. Russia could use Iran as a useful foreign policy tool, by threatening support for Iran if US interfered in Ukraine and Georgia. Helped secure Russia's southern flank and limit Iranian-Russian competition. Russia threatened to sell missile defense systems to Iran if US built up missile defense systems in Central Europe. Worried that without Iran to tie US down in Middle East, US will support peripheral countries and support anti-Kremlin groups within Russia. Russia will no longer be able to use Iran to counter US activities and has no other tools comparable. US could support Iran's military, as before with the Shah. Iran has the potential to be regional energy competitor, and serve as land bridge to Persian Gulf for trade. Turkey is Russia's second largest energy consumer, although Ankara has been looking to reduce its dependence on Russia. Although Azerbaijan could moderately aid Turkey, only Iran has the potential to seriously compete. US investment in Tehran's energy sector could exponentially increase output. Historically, Ottomans, Persians, and Russians battled for power. In Caucusus, Iran could offer Azerbaijan alternative land route for transporting energy to Turkey, Europe, and Gulf. Iran could boost trade and energy exports to Armenia or Georgia, challenging Russian influence. And in Central Asia, where Russian-Chinese competition has been huge, Iran could become major export corridor for Turkmen gas (most of Turkmenistan's largest gas fields lie on border w Iran), as well as Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Iran could also partner w central asian states to counter radical islamists stemming out of Afghanistan. Deal reached. Iran will stop enriching uranium past 5 percent. All 20% uranium will be diluted or converted to point where it would not be easy to make weapons-grade. No additional centrifuges will be installed. Natanz and Fordow nuclear facilities will remain operational, but will be visited by international monitors. US has promised $7 billion in sanctions relief, all of which would not require approval by Congress. Would want the US to remove support for anti-Iranian Sunni organizations operating in Iraq, doesnt want hostile regime next door. US will have to guarantee to give up on regime change. Iran needs western investment to modernize economy and develop energy field. Many US companies are eager to invest and do business w Iranian regime. IRGC wields substantial economic power, and does not want to surrender that power to foreign competitors Iran could have threatened the security of the Strait of Hormuz, raising the price of US oil. Recently, the Strait has been quite, and the Iranian navy has been professional and couteous to US navy. US is trying to maintain the flow of oil, while drawing down its military forces abroad. Iran found itself with US forces on its west and east borders. Iran's primary strategic interest is regime survival - they understand that the US poses the greatest threat to that security. Solve the American problem, and regime survival is assured. US knows that resurrecting the Iraqi counterweight to Iran is impossible in the short term. Both countries are at war with Sunnis. US no longer has long-term interests in economic and political relations of the Gulf countries. So long as no single power directly controls the entire region, the US is happy. The sanctions relief was basically the full extent Obama could carry out without having to consult congress. A rehabilitated Iran represents a counter to growing regional Sunni radicalism Iran's nuclear program is now fully civilian Next step will be negotiations in 6 months, where all sanctions would be eliminated for supervision of Iran's nuclear activities. Unlikely, but could be a ploy to create cover for building a weapon and testing it. But would a reliable missile and launch pad invisible to intell from CIA, NSA, Mossad, MI6. Would fail, triggering airstrikes. Can destabilize Saudi Arabi with support of sizeable Shia population in East. Part of the negotiations that wont be made public - US wants Iran to limit support for Hezbollah, and guarantee it wont support terrorism. Iran wants US to guarantee it won't develop an anti-Iranian govt Recent surge of attacks by Sunni Islamists in southwestern Sistan adn Baluchestan province, which borders Afghanistan and Pakistan, is the work of Saudi proxies that were reactivated after the US-Iranian rapprochement. Iran needs investment, and US companies want to invest. Iran wants to know Russia and Turkey cannot threaten it. America wants Iran to contain Saudi support for Sunni insurgents, to compel Turkey to change its foreign policy, and remind the Caucasus do not need to fear Iran and can worry solely about Russia. Zagros mountains run up the western border with Iraq. Could challenge Russia's economic and political influence in Armenia by increasing natural gas exports. The Iran-Armenia pipeline could be refurbished. More Iranian gas would allow Armenia to diversify. In Azerbaijan, it holds concerns about Azerbaijan's influence on the significant Azeri minority in Iran and may seek a resolution. Azerbaijan has sought to balance Iran by allying with rivals such as Israel. Recent border incidents have stoked tensions. Prisoner sweep - Missing US citizen Robert Levinson in exchange for Iranian citizens being detained in the US. Levinson was a former FBI agent who was working for the CIA in a rogue operation when he was captured. Iran is holding him as leverage in future negotiations. The Iranians were businessmen and engineers who were trying to smuggle US weapons and technology to Iran. Including Ali-Reza Asgan, a IRGC general who defected. He disappeared in Turkey in 2006 - some believe he is in an Israeli prison, some say he was killed by Mossad, and others say he is defected. The US would not release him or other defected persons, as such a move would risk discouraging future defections. Deal to eliminate sanctions will not be finalized by the end of 2014 Rezā Shāh Pahlavi- 1925-41. In 1925, Reza Shah deposed Ahmad Shah Qajar, the last Shah of the Qajar dynasty, and founded the Pahlavi dynasty. He established a constitutional monarchy that lasted until overthrown in 1979 during the Iranian Revolution. In 41 he was deposed by Brits and Russians when they invaded to install a less pro-German shah, his gifted grandson, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi Anglo-Soviet invasion of Iran - 41. The purpose was to secure Iranian oil fields and ensure Allied supply lines for the Soviets fighting against Axis forces on the Eastern Front. Iran's monarch Rezā Shāh was friendly toward the Axis powers and was deposed during the subsequent occupation and replaced with his young son Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. Mohammad Rezā Shāh Pahlavī - 41-79. Deposed by Khomeini. The US views Rouhani as a potential Iranian Deng Xiaoping, someone from within the ideological solidarity system who can, measure-by-stealthy-measure, lead his country away from ideology and toward internal reform -- something that could, in turn, result in an understanding with the West. Russian oil-for-goods deal. Would be worth 1.5 billion a month. Moscow is trying to keep the story in the media spotlight while Iran is refuting the statements. Iran would ship 500,000 barrels of crude a day for agricultural exports, machinery, and supplies. Here, Russia is trying to derail the Iranian US talks. US has opposed the deal because it would circumvent sanctions. Announces that it is sending a frigate and supply ship to US maritime borders from coast of South Africa. Have made this claim numerous times, but this is the first time they have done so. Relatively meaningless, just meant as a show of force to appease hardliners back home. The Iranian navy is dominated by small patrol and fast attack missile boats that are ideally suited for operations in and along the Persian Gulf. These vessels are unable to deploy far from Iran, but Tehran also has around four other vessels similar to the currently deployed frigate that enable it to conduct occasional long-distance missions such as the announced Atlantic deployment. Iran's blue water capabilities are weak. The real threat posed by the Iranian navy continues to rest on their ability to disrupt maritime traffic in the Persian Gulf, especially the strategic Strait of Hormuz. Despite very old and aging equipment, the Iranians continue to maintain what they have and take their training very seriously.

Libya

Capital - Tripoli Qaddafi - 69-2011. Took over power through coup that overthrew King Idris King Idris I of Libya (51-69) - Took over following WWII Former Italian colony Regional v. Central - Zintan, Misurata, Benghazi Tripolitania (West) Cyrenaica (East) Fezzan (South) General National Congress PM Ali Zeidan (pro-west) v. Pres. Nuri Abusahmain (Islamist) Growing opposition fears return to western-backed power consolidation by GNC & Zeidan West could abandon Zeidan by pushing for new elections or negotiation oil/gas deals directly w local authorities GNC has already seen a pres & pm removed OPEC member, most oil in Africa, significant natural gas, Greenstream pipeline to Europe Misrata militia fired into protesters, killing 40. Was a response to earlier clashes btw Misrata militia and local armed groups, which were in response to the killing of a Misrata commander at a checkpoint. Tripoli politicians, local mosque leaders, and grand mufti urge protests to protect the central government. Framed as a dispute btw Tripoli govt and nearby Western city of Misrata. While Eastern Benghazi is the most widely recognized source of opposition, Tripoli faces challenges from Misrata and Zentan in the West, as well as the Amazigh Ansar al Shariah in Libya - maintain contacts with AQIM, but are much more closely tied to local and national militant structures in its own country. Tends to be more nationalistic than AQIM, which seeks to create an emirate across northern Africa. The eastern cities of Ras Lanuf, Es Sider, and Zueitina, alone produce 60% of oil exports, and they have been shut off. Ibrahim Jadhran is leading autonomous movement in east - was former rebel commander and appointed to Petroleum Facilities Guard commander, before siding with protesters and shutting down oil. Wants greater share in east of national oil revenues. Leading large protests. Tripoli's strongest showing of force has been its development of the Petroleum Facility Guard unit, and even that group turned against it. All just part of a new pattern - there are plenty of tribal, militant, and political groups that will bring oil offline to gain concessions from the gov. Has Africa's largest oil reserves. National Oil Corporation (NOC) state run. Libya typically exports most of its crude oil to European countries, with Italy being the leading recipient. Most of its natural gas is shipped via pipeline to Italy via Greenstream. In 1971, Libya was the third country in the world, after Algeria and the United States (Alaska), to begin exporting liquefied natural gas (LNG). Typically, the country exports a small amount of LNG to Spain. In 2014, Libyan instability will be at the heart of North Africa's security issues. West will push the transitional national authority to draft a constitution and form a new government. Tripoli will coordinate with foreign capitals to train small groups of soldiers to help boost the national army's capabilities and organization. Will work to coopt smaller militia and tribal groups throughout the country, partnering with larger regional centers to reign in renegade armed groups. Oil production and exports will fluctuate rapidly as groups use energy infrastructure as leverage in negotiations. Libya Prepares to Restart the Constitutional Process Despite Risks - Proceeding with drafting of constitution means election of representative govt by 2015. Feb. 20 is set as the date for constitutional commission elections. Each of Libya's three regions -- Tripolitania, Cyrenaica and Fezzan -- will elect 20 members to represent them equally during the constitutional drafting process. Libya held relatively free and fair elections in July 2012 that saw the General National Congress take over from the unelected National Transitional Council, which represented the opposition during the Western-backed rebellion that overthrew previous leader Moammar Gadhafi in 2011. After a short-lived resurgence in 2012, Libyan oil exports have declined precipitously since June 2013. Fuel shortages are becoming more common in some parts of the country, and water and electricity supplies face increasingly frequent interruptions due to tribal or ethnic clashes. Libya's various ethnic and sectarian minorities will also seek protection and recognition under the aegis of the constitution, sparking conflict with Arab tribal groups who enjoyed decades of preferential treatment under Gadhafi. Though similar processes have been undertaken by Tunisia and Egypt, both states had a more unified national identity than the Libyan peoples. Also trying to manage rising public anger over the extension of the General National Congress' mandate, which was originally set to expire Feb. 7. If the constitutional commission elections are held, however, it is likely that the General National Congress can continue its mandate until a draft is completed, similar to Tunisia's beleaguered Ennahda-led government that was replaced by a caretaker body after the completion of an initial constitutional draft. Eastern federalists, southern Tubou and western Amazigh tribesmen, and the various local bastions of militia and tribal authority are all loath to cede authority back to Tripoli. The constitution is incapable of defending or enforcing itself, which is why it is so difficult to convince various groups to disarm, and why the ongoing military development NATO is aiding is so important. Even if Libya produces a finalized constitution, the document in and of itself is meaningless without any enforcement mechanisms.

Moldova

Chisinau President Nicolae Timofti, since 2012 4 million Became an independent country in 91. Is located between the Dniester and Prut rivers. The land east of the Dniester is highly industrialized. Still maintains huge stockpiles of Russian weapons. The Moldovan parliament granted autonomous status to the Turkic-language speaking Gagauz region in the southwest of the republic in late 1994. It has powers over its own political, economic and cultural affairs. Two-thirds of Moldovans are of Romanian descent, the languages are virtually identical and the two countries share a common cultural heritage 'Bessarabia' Soviets tried to create seperate national identity btw Moldovans and Romanians. Was expected to reunify after independence from USSR. Individuals who advocate the unification are usually called "unionists" (unioniști). Some support it as a peaceful process based on consent in the two countries, others in the name of a "Romanian historical right over Bessarabia". The supporters of the union refer to the opponents as "Moldovenists" Transdniestria, the eastern part of Moldova, inhabited by a Slavic (mainly Russian and Ukrainian) majority, used the danger of unification with Romania as a pretext for its own aspirations for independence. Strip of Moldova's internationally recognized territory on the east bank of the river Dniester has been under the de facto control of the breakaway government of Transnistria since 1990. With the military support of Russia, Transdniestria quickly defeated Moldova in a war in 1992. Since then, Russia has kept troops in the breakaway territory and has financially supported Transdniestria to Moldova's chagrin. Romania and Germany have tried to support Moldova's move for unification, but Russia has refused to remove its troops. Other half is Ukrainian territory. Transdniestria has accused Moldova of planning to allow NATO access to its military bases. Has threatened military buildup if Moldova signs EU agreement. Is trying to formalize itself into the Customs Union. According to its constitution, Moldova is a neutral state and is therefore unable to formally join any military alliances or provide its territory for military bases of external powers. To amend the constitution would require the support of 86 members of Parliament, which would be impossible for the Alliance for European Integration to achieve without the support of the Communists. Would also be excessively foolish to engage in such bold moves with Russia right next door. The pro-EU coalition in govt has a majority in the Moldovan Parliament and is supported by both the prime minister and the president. Is opposed by the Communist Party, which is the largest party in Parliament and still garners much support from the rural poor. It is highly unlikely that Moldova will sign the agreement with the EU - Russia has the economic leverage that it had in Ukraine, in addition to Transdniestria. Prut River separates Moldova and Romania Set to initial deal at Eastern Partnership Program. Would sign agreement a year later. Moscow has threatened energy cutoffs No energy resources Poorest country in Europe Vladimir Voronin 01-09 Party of Communists. Mircea Snegur 90-97. Opposed immediate unification with Romania. Signed association agreement with EU. Russia blocked imports of Moldovan wine, and said that 200,000 Moldovan migrants may no longer be allowed to work in Russia. US traveled there and said the US would make up the loss of revenue from wine. Romanian pres Basescu said the two countries should reunify if Moldova joins the EU. Russia could pressure Transdniestria, where it has a military presence. Moldova and Georgia will become focal points of competition btw West and Russia this year. Russia will threaten cutoffs and place economic pressure on both countries to dissuade them from agreeing to EU program, and will probably succeed. Dependent on Russia for energy. The Russian gas supplier Gazprom cut the gas supply off at the beginning of 2006 when Moldova refused to pay twice the previous price. EU announced visa liberalization with Moldova. Autonomous region of Gagauzia - Is holding a key referendum to choose btw Russia and EU. 97% chose Russia. It is unlikely that Gagauzia will actually follow through on accession to the Customs Union or split off from Moldova completely, but such discussions will undermine Moldova's integration plans. The region is largely agricultural. Speak a different language than the rest of Moldova. Since break of Soviet Union, Gagauzia has had strong separatist tendencies. Originally declared independence from Moldova, but was persuaded to accept autonomy. Moldova declared the referendum illegal and tried to block it. Has said that if Moldova unifies with Romania, it will break off and declare independence. Wanted to show Chisinau that if it moved forward with EU, there would be serious consequences. Being a Turkic people, was also meant to show Gagauzia's solidarity with Turkey, which has substantial influence in the region through financial assistance and various cultural initiatives. Meanwhile parliamentary elections will take place in November, which could lead to major govt restructuring. Read more: In Moldova, Gagauzia's Referendum Illustrates the EU-Russian Struggle | Stratfor Follow us: @stratfor on Twitter | Stratfor on Facebook

Sierra Leone

Former British colony - one of few in West Africa

Morocco

Maghreb translates to land of the setting sun - marked the western fronteir of the Islamic empire. Jebel al Tariq became known as Gibraltar - Moroccan General Tariq ibn Ziyad massed his troops for conquest of the Iberian Peninsula - ordered by Umayyad Caliph in 8th century. Ceuta is a spanish controlled city on Moroccan land mass Atlas mountains bisect the country horizontally. Ends in northeast Algeria - is only broken by the Taza Gap in central Morocco. Rif Mountains straddle Northeast coast. Highlands are occupied by local natives - Berbers. Trapped between Europeans in north and berbers in mountains, early Muslims settled on plaines and mountain passages, setting up the political and cultural hubs of Fez and Marrakech. There is a geographic logic to Morocco's boundaries that has allowed it to develop a strong identity. Under the Almohad dynasty in 12th century, Muhammad ibn Rushd, Averroes, founded philosophical Islamic/Aristotelian movement. This tradition of liberalism continues today. Little extremism/radicalism. Flexible interpretation of Islam. Sultans could be removed by religious community - were not invincible - led to constitutional monarchy. Ottomans nominally occupied territory from 16-19th centuries Has developed uniquely cooperative relationship w Israel. Strong Jewish communities in Morocco - has allowed for hidden cooperation w Israel Is a capital poor country - no navigable rivers to facilitate inland development. Moroccan leaders consolidated control over Corsairs, whose piracy along Med. generated substantial profits. But Europeans saw that they had to control Maghrebi coastline to secure their own wealth from pirates. Threatened by Europe, Morocco was desperate for a patron and ally with enough power to balance against Europe - United States. Was the first country to recognize the US in 1777, allowing troops to dock at Moroccan ports without duties or tariffs. Tangier is at tip of peninsula King Mohammad VI - Alaouite dynasty, dating back to lat 1600's - Commander of the Faithful. Strongly supported by Gulf Arabs Morocco is an island of stability in tumultuous region Much further along than its royal counterparts in Jordan and Gulf in trying to negotiate balance between maintaining an outdated monarchy w/ demands for representative govt. Parliament is now split btw moderate Islamist Justice and Development Party and the National Rally of Independents (was created by monarchy in 1970's and is expected to pursue policies in line with the king's wishes). Youth unemployment at 30%, and govt has reluctantly cut subsidies and raised energy and food prices to cope w slowing growth in Europe It is also a major transit for the drug trade. European businessmen are looking to Morocco for low-wage labor manufacturing hub Employ nationalism to distract from domestic strife - Western Sahara. Morocco annexed the former Spanish colony in 1975, setting off a 12-year insurgency led by the Algerian-backed Polisario Front. Wants US to support them against Algerians, but the US is trying to avoid precisely these kinds of localized entaglements in pursuit of a broader balance of power in the region. Western Sahara is mostly desert, but phosphate rich and believed to harbor oil deposits offshore. Saharawis pushed for nationalism in 60's, until Polisario established itself as the main representative of Saharawi people. In 1975, the ICJ rejected Moroccan adn Mauritanian claims, giving the Saharawi people right to self determination,. Soon after, King Hassan II ordered the Green March into the territory. Partition left Morocco with northern 2/3, Mauritania with bottom third. Saharan Arab Democratic Republic declared by Saharawis. Soon after, Mauritania signed peace deal w SADR and renounced all territorial gains. Morocco moved in to occupy that 1/3 left behind. Polisario continues to be based out of the Algerian city of Tindouf, where tons of refugees are held.

Mozambique

Maputo Former portuguese colony (one of five) Ruling Mozambique Liberation Front Signed peace treaty w/ Mozambique National Resistance Movement (Renamo) after civil war which lasted from 1975-92. MLF won because it controlled economic center of country and received support from Soviet union and chINA. Renamo only got help from Rhodesia. Renamo represents minority Sena and Ndau ethnicities, who live in impoverished central and northern provinces. Central Mozambique is heart of country's coal production - Opposition only has attention bc it can disrupt development National elections scheduled for 2014 - MLF will win

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Algeria

President Abdelaziz Bouteflika 38 million AQIM is a diffuse band of militants led by hierarchical command and leader Abdelmalek Droukdel (Abu Musab Abdel Wadoud) from northeastern Kabylie region of Algeria Algeria is trying to influence political deal and stability in Tunis. Military and intelligence cooperation, patrolling borders, and joint operations in Chaambi to seize weapons caches and militants. Wants to prevent insecurity from spreading to Algeria. Tunisia's Chaambi region is a transit corridor linking jihadist groups in northeastern Algeria to military training grounds in Libya, as well as weapons and equipment. Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat took up the name al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb in 2006. But Mokhtar Belmokhtar broke off to form his own group, the Mouthalimeen Brigade. AQIM - Leader Abu Musab Abdel Wadoud (Abdelmalek Droukdel, Algerian). Algerian security forces have applied immense pressure on AQIM in mountainous north, so the group has moved its finance and logistics to the south. Has allied with groups like Movement for UNity and Jihad in West Africa. Declared emirate in Mali. But split by internal divisions. Mokhtar Belmokhtar split off to become an independent organization, and attacked the Tigantourine natural gas facility in Ain Amenas, Algeria in 2013. AQIM was formerly the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC). France is the top source for imports. In 2014, Algeria will work to expand its inroads into Tunisia as the country deals with a difficult political transition. Will continue low-level political provocations with Morocco to ensure Rabat is too distracted by domestic political and economic issues to interfere with Algeria's regional aspirations. Boutelika will work to win the upcoming presidential election. Will oversee changes to the constitution and try to revive foreign investment in the energy sector. Moving towards a gradual opening of conventional and unconventional gas reserves to foreign investors, but will proceed cautiously, given how important energy revenues are for managing the complex balance of power in Algeria. But Europe needs Algerian natural gas as the North Sea reserves decline. Algeria is likely to succeed Norway as the primary natural gas supplier. But Algiers has been reluctant to allow foreign technical and financial capital necessary to boost production. Currently, Algeria ranks as the third-largest supplier of natural gas to the European Union, exporting some 10 percent of the bloc's consumption, primarily to Spain, Italy, France and the United Kingdom. The country's export infrastructure is highly developed and features two sub-Mediterranean pipelines and three liquefied natural gas export trains, each with spare capacity. And Algeria has been receptive to long-term contracts, which European countries covet. Energy accounts for 36% of GDP and 60% of revenues. Produces high quality crude, and its export destinations are diversified. Its gas reserves are second to Nigeria in Africa, and is more than double Norway's reserves. But the country lacks freshwater to take advantage of new fracking technologies. Foreign investment has been hampered by protectionist policies of highly nationalistic military govt. Investors wary of the decades-long civil war that resulted from '92-02, sparked by invalidated win by Islamists. State of emergency was not lifted until 2009. Bouteflika has eased protectionist policies and lessened a burdensome bureacracy. Also improving LNG export facilities. 2011 Medgaz pipeline transports gas to Spain (8million bcm - billion cubic meters - per year) 92-02 civil war. Sparked by invalidated win by Islamists. State of emergency was not lifted until 2009. Approximately 100,000 deaths. The conflict effectively ended with a government victory, following the surrender of the Islamic Salvation Army and the 2002 defeat of the Armed Islamic Group. The Islamic Salvation Front (FIS) party gained popularity amongst the Algerian people and the National Liberation Front (FLN) party, fearing the former's victory, cancelled elections after the first round. At this time the country's military effectively took control of the government, and president Chadli Bendjedid was forced from office. After the FIS was banned and thousands of its members arrested, Islamist guerrillas rapidly emerged and began an armed campaign against the government and its supporters. Islamic Armed Movement (MIA), based in the mountains, and the Armed Islamic Group (GIA), based in the towns, formed to fight govt. The guerrillas initially targeted the army and police, but some groups soon started attacking civilians. In 1994, as negotiations between the government and the FIS's imprisoned leadership reached their height, the GIA declared war on the FIS and its supporters, while the MIA and various smaller groups regrouped, becoming the FIS-loyalist Islamic Salvation Army (AIS). Army leader was elected to power. GIA and AIS fought eachother. The AIS, under attack from both sides, opted for a unilateral ceasefire with the government in 1997, while the GIA was torn apart by splits as various subdivisions objected to its new massacre policy. Bouteflika was then elected pres in 99 - he granted amnesty to most militants. The remaining GIA militants were subsequently eliminated by 2002. A splinter group of the GIA that formed on the fringes of Kabylie in 1998, called the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC), rejected the amnesty. They attacked security forces. The group then announced loyalty to Al Qaeda and eventually formed Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb.

Azerbaijan

Capital - Baku Pres. Ilham Aliyev - reelected multiple times His father (former KGB chairman) took over after years of political chaos, but died in 2003 TAP (Trans-Adriatic Pipeline) to Europe, means Azerbaijan is dependent on Georgia for pipeline access. Russians pressured Baku to decline the Nabucco pipeline SOCAR - State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic Shah Deniz field - one of largest gas fields in world BTC pipeline (Baku-Tbilsi-Ceyhan caspian sea to Med. Turkey) Oil - 22, Gas - 31 Azerbaijan's gas and oil challenge Russia's monopoly. TAP (Trans Adriatic Pipeline) winning over Nabucco was a victory, bc Russia wanted the pipeline to avoid Central Europe and Balkans bc it wants those states dependent on it and not Azerbaijan for energy. Could help Turkey expand its energy exports away from Russian dependence, but only moderately. Iran could offer Baku an alternative land route for transporting energy to Turkey, Europe, and Gulf. Azerbaijan has become more accomodating to Russian interests to avoid isolation as the rest of the region moves closer to Moscow. Nagorno-Karabakh. Russian mediated discussions in Jan 2012. Move toward US-Iranian raprochement may upset the status quo. Disputed territory in 1988 during collapse of Soviet Union. Was part of Azerbaijan, but Armenia sought to annex it since majority of population was Armenian. War lasted until 1994 when Armenia won. Negotiations by Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe's Minsk Group - Russia, US, and France as co-chairs. But Armenia was not interested in a settlement, and Russia wants to keep the status-quo. November negotiations spurred by US and Turkey. Turkey wants US involvement on the issue in exchange for accepting the Iranian negotiations. Turkey hopes to normalize relations w Armenia. Turkey had tried to normalize these relations in 2009, but Baku was furious. Has sought to counter Armenian cooperation w Russia by diversifying relationships to avoid being beholden to any power. Exporting energy to Turkey, West, Russia, and Iran. Strengthening security ties w Turkey and Israel to balance against neighbors. Turkey remained neutral to both Nabucco and South Stream. Original Nabucco pipeline was downsized to Nabucco West, but would have excluded Russia to carry gas from Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Iran, Iraq, and Egypt to Europe. Nabucco West would have relied on Shah Deniz gas field in Azerbaijan. While West was costly and would flow to Central Europe, Trans-Adriatic Pipeline was cheap and crossed the Adriatic to Iraly. Smaller volume and end consumers of TAP were far less threatening to Russia (Nabucco would have supplied Central Europe). No coincidence that Russia, right before selection, allowed Azerbaijan's SOCAR to win rights to Greek natural gas transit firm DEFSA by withdrawing. Growing Azerbaijani-Russian energy cooperation. The heavier Russian presence in Caucasus, the more dependent Turkey is on Russia. Russia wants to be the middle man for transport of Central Asian energy to Europe - will pressure Turkmenistan to forgo pipeline through Caspian and Turkey to Europe. In Azerbaijan, it holds concerns about Azerbaijan's influence on the significant Azeri minority in Iran and may seek a resolution. In reality, more Azeri Turks live in Iran than all of Azerbaijan, leading Iran to fear a future greater Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan has sought to balance Iran by allying with rivals such as Israel. Recent border incidents have stoked tensions. Azerbaijan's energy reserves allow it to play various powers off eachother to acheive a degree of sovereignty that neighboring Armenia and Georgia cannot. Turkey is the biggest consumer of Azeri hydrocarbons.

China

Capital - Beijing President - Xi Jinping Premier- Li Keqiang China shifting from exports to domestic consumption Big Three oil companies - China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. (Sinopec), China National Offshore Oil Corp, PetroChina Deng Xiaoping raised standard of living and personal freedoms in a shorter time than perhaps ever recorded in history Seeking to diminish and consolidate 5 key industries-steel, cement, shipbuilding, aluminum, glass -- had previously sought production over productivity/efficiency/innovation/consumption. Central and local govts financed and subsidized these industries to provide stability and regime security. Factories swamped their rivals w cheap prices and sheer volume - not through innovation. Only state banks and local govts kept these businesses afloat-massive debt. End result was outdated, low-tech industry, often energy-intensive and polluting. Direct result of massive govt loan stimulus during 2008 financial crisis- Consolodation will lead to mass unemployment Will soon be Communist Party Central Committee's third plenary session - will propose major economic reforms - wants to be compared to 78's session, where Deng moved towards economic reform (was only two years after Mao's death and China was recovering from the Cultural Revolution). Ruled until 1989. Deng ended the Gang of Four (four individuals who Mao delegated power to during Cultural Rev. When Mao died, they were overthrown and blamed for excesses of the policy). Deng tried to end Mao's consolidation of power - tried to replace consolidation of power from one man to group leadership, to prevent rise of another strongman. Unintended consequence of replacing individual w/ bureaucratic and patronage networks. Radical policy swings were now impossible, but decision-making became timid and sluggish bc radical reform would never make it through consensus building. Jiang Zemin ruled from 1989-2002. Could largely follow the lead of Deng. State was losing legitimacy and state-owned enterprises were challenging economic opening and reform. Jiang was the first secretary general of party to take on the title of Pres. Since then, all leaders have run both positions (party and state). Jiang was constrained in his power by Deng's policy of group, consensus leadership. Hu Jintao ruled from 2002-12. When he took over, China's economic boom was already well under way. Xi Jinping faces the most difficulty since Deng. Economic supercycle set in motion by Deng is at an end. China's military appears much stronger than it actually is. Consensus politics have made China's policies predictable to keep social stability. Small incremental changes worked before, but China now needs major course correction. So Xi is trying to increase role and power of president. Needs to find compromise between consensus and strongman. Will start by eliminating bloated bureaucracy. Then will improve efficiency by cutting webs of vested interests. Largest energy consumer in the world Second largest consumer (behind US) and importer of oil in world Largest oil fields are declining, leaving exploration focused on interior Largest producer and consumer of coal in the world Three Gorges hydroelectric facility - largest hydroelectric project in the world Grievances over systemic injustice among ethnic Han remains greatest threat to Chinese govt, not terrorism East Turkestan Islamic Movement typically carries out attacks that maximize casualties-based out of Xinjiang 2009 Urumqi uprisings-riots in Xinjiang's capital, where ethnic Han were attacked 2008 Tibetan Unrest- protests in Tibetan capital, violence against Han Trying hard to build nuclear triad - three pronged capability. Needs to bolster its submarine-launched nuclear missile arsenal, in light of advances in precision of US, Russian, and Indian nuclear strikes. A credible sea-based nuclear arsenal will enhance ability to respond w/ second strike. Sea-based deterrent is big matter of prestige. Subs will not be able to strike US from within first island chain Best path for subs will be Luzon strait, bc Taiwan and Philippines have very limited anti-sub technology, compared to Japan - and US forces are stationed in S. Korea and Japan New bombing attack in Shanxi, located at the heart of China's Han core. Rural province whose economy is centered around coal mining. Third Plenum hopes to use capitalism to increase efficiency and forestall economic stagnation while retaining central control over political institutions and core industries in order to avoid liberalizing too rapidly and inducing a post-Soviet-style shock Trying to implement price reforms, but is reluctant to remove controls on politically sensitive goods. Has historically tried to keep prices low to protect public from rising costs.- facilitated rapid economic growth but led to overcapacity in industry, too much resource consumption, pollution, and disparities in income btw state workers and elsewhere. Moving towards market-oriented policies, especially in natural gas. Severe natural gas shortages recently due to increased consumption. Increasing LNG imports, building import terminals. In order to promote domestic production and enable state companies to manage costs of increasing imports, government will have to let prices rise. Without higher prices, the energy oligopoly will not be able to fund investments. So government has raised price ceiling. At the same time, this weakens smaller companies and middlemen. May face bankruptcies and require subsidies or bailouts from Beijing or provincial govts. Top officials have considered breaking up natural gas industries, but doing so would take a long time, and would upset local govts concerned with their own economic and social stability. New plans to ease one-child rule - Massive labor pool is aging as country transitions toward consumer-based economy Founding a new National Security Committee under President's guidance Middle Class is becoming far more politically aware Worried that market economics could create short term instablity and unemployment, leading to social chaos Party's reason for existence now is to survive Absence of central authority and unified statistical bureaucracy makes national accounting highly dependent on provinces, leading to wildly inflated data at local and provincial levels. GDP is inaccurate, often due to manipulation and falsification. Govt seemed less concerned with statistical discrepancies than in using high growth rates to preserve its political legitimacy. Now that country is seeking balanced, consumption-driven economy, it needs more accurate statistics. The Sino-Soviet border conflict was a seven-month military conflict between the Soviet Union and China at the height of the Sino-Soviet split in 1969. Chinese historians most commonly refer to the conflict as the Zhenbao Island incident. Looking to Central and Eastern Europe as a market for its strategic industries and a window into Western markets. Has signed MOU's on projects for nuclear, telecomm, highspeed rail and renewable projects. Pledging to build high speed rail btw hungary and serbia, and to help Romania's highspeed rail industry. Interested in ores, metals, agricultural products, and potash from Eastern Europe. Potential for Iron Silk Road - linking Xinjiang to Central Asia, Middle East, Russia, and Western Europe. 'Trans-Asian Railway'. Focuses on targeted countries with strong need for investment and underdeveloped/competitive markets, then helps with rail/port development, telecommunications, agriculture, mining, and energy. Wants to become lower-cost versions of high value added technologies like high-speed rail, telecomm, and renewable energy. Beijing in November declared ADIZ (Air Defense Identification Zone) above Sankaku/Diaoyu island chain. In response, US sent two bombers from Guam to fly through zone without notification. China then sent warplanes into the zone as 'defensive measures' against Jap and Korean challenge. ADIZ requires civilian aircraft to notify entry. Japan will not stop its patrols and forced commercial airlines to disregard flight rule. Airspace is the sky above territory plus 12 miles of coastal waterway. ADIZ is a country's means of identifying and monitoring aircraft approaching its territory and more formally defined airspace. US is striking a balance btw officially refusing to recognize the zone and voicing concerns over China's handling of it, while unofficially urging commercial carriers to comply with chinese rules. Beijing is not enforcing the ADIZ aggresively bc it lacks the capabilities to do so. South East Asia is fearful that China will soon look to extend its ADIZ into South China Sea. Corruption investigation of Zhou Yongkang, former politburo Standing Committee member. Zhou is perhaps the ultimate 'tiger' in Xi's quest to root out bureacratic corruption at the highest (tigers) and lowest (flies) levels. Zhou was chief of internal security under Hu Jintao and chaired the China National Petroleum Corp. He built up a powerful patronage network with close ties to the oil industry. He is the highest ranking official to ever be the subject of a corruption investigation since the founding of the People's Republic in 1949. Held sway over two pillars of Communist Party power - oil and police, and it now seems there are major changes ahead for China's oil industry and internal security system. The status of the internal security bureau was quietly downgraded, after Zhou had put much work into elevating it. Xi has announced the launch of a new National Security Council, similar to the US, that would integrate high-level command of internal and external security under Xi's command. In oil, China's leaders understand the need for more competition and openness to private investment in oil and gas sectors that have long been dominated by the big three. This policy would run counter to the interests of many officials with close ties to the companies, and this may have led to Zhou's fall. Under its current structure, China's energy sector has not been efficient or effective at developing much-needed unconventional energy resources. In China, as in most authoritarian regimes, rising in politics requires building patronage and influence that often run counter to the state. They help protect officials from policy reorientations of the govt. This is why Zhou had to be removed. International uproar when managerial reorganization of territorial claims placed contested South China Sea islands under administrative control of the Sansha city district. Xi Jinping is rising, just as Deng's model reaches its limits. Major shift from consensus-based decision-making structure that ran China in the 90's and 2000's, to one centered on the president himself. Xi has quickly taken control of the country's political and military affairs. Created a new National Security Council, under his and his closest advisors' control. Launched corruption campaign to gain control over critical pillars of Communist Party power - state-enterprise sector and police force. Sidelining potential rival power bases. Has established himself as the country's leading force in economic reform. Stated that he, not Premier li Keqiang, will be the public face driving the economic transformation. For the past 20 years, management and reform of the economy has fallen to the premier, not the president. Now, the premier will only control the day-to-day management of economic reforms, while Xi will deal with design and implementation of key reforms. The three pillars of geopolitical power are politics, military, and economics. Xi looks to be taking control of all three. Severe overcapacity in key industries like real estate and steel. China's natural gas demand is growing absurdly fast - rivaling Russia for 2nd, and the US at 1. Ceased being an exporter of oil in early 90's and is now the world's largest oil importer. Had never been a significant consumer or producer of natural gas until 2005, but it now imports a third of its gas. China is different from the rest of east asia, bc it has significant domestic production potential and access to pipelines from Central Asia and Russia. Currently uses coal for almost all its energy needs, as environmental costs have begun to offset the strategic and economic benefits, threatening social and political stability. Thus has begun switching from coal-fired power plants to natural gas-fired plants. Coal resources have underpinned the country's unprecedented growth over the past four decades, and they were cheap. Has the world's greatest shale gas deposits - must first master the technology to extract them, which would allow Beijing to shift its energy security away from foreign sources. May have the strongest shale technology outside of North America. This means that China's natural gas security could be realized eventually, even if in the interim China must rely heavily on imports. But shale technology likely will not come online for two decades. LNG market will not satisfy all of China's demand. Recently made deals with Turkmenistan, Russia, and Myanmar. But many of these pipeline deals will not come online until 2020, meaning that until then there will be a reliance on LNG. Major changes to the organizational structure. First major changes since mid-80's. Will change China's seven military regions into five military zones tasked with overseeing domestic AND international security issues. Each will control army, navy, airforce, and strategic missile units. Used to be mostly focused on domestic defense and internal security - consolidating the landmass and unifying the Chinese population. Northern Zone will cover Yellow Sea, defending the capital and much of China's traditional industrial and agricultural heartlands against threats from Russia, the Koreas, and Japan. Western Zone will be oriented towards Central Asia, the indian subcontinent, and Myanmar. Eastern Zone will focus on East China Sea, specifically Taiwan - more emphasis on naval and air capacity. Southern Zone will be concerned with South China Sea and Vietnem/Philippines, and limited Indian Ocean - again, more focus on air and navy. Central Zone will be reserve and support group for the other zones - focus on airborne and rapid reaction forces. The current system is too diffuse. Has been moving to this point for a decade, consolidating logistics and support services, raising education and training requirements, and accelerating cross-operability among the various branches. Will now be an armed force designed to serve the nation, not just the Party. Also strengthening control of People's Armed Policy, a paramilitary unit that has emerged as the premier internal crisis management force. 2014 will see structural reforms in the economy - will push for market-oriented pricing for resources like natural gas and water to increase efficiency. Will adjust fiscal relationship btw central and local govts, widening taxes on property and coal, and increasing local bond programs, largely to stabilize local govt financing. Will relax controls on interest rates, the exchange market, and capital accounts to promote financial liberalization. Will try to restructure ineffective state-owned enterprises and monopolized sectors, but wont be able to complete it by 2014 bc of opposition by the enterprise leaderships. Will reform residential registration and rural land sales, supporting inland and western development through new special economic zones and infrastructure investment. There is the potential for localized instability in property markets this year. Xi will continue agressive anti-corruption campaign. Communist Party is showing signs of moving behind its two-decades of collective leadership to build a more consolidated party centering on Xi. A strongman is attractive bc there will be critical decisions combined with enormous challenges. In 2014, it will seek to develop the south and west to open up potential land corridors to Central Asia, Eastern Europe, and the Middle East. Hopes that economic outreach to Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia will divide ASEAN nations regarding territorial disputes and security concerns. Will court Vietnam and the Philippines for joint exploration. Introducing steady, incremental reforms to state-controlled banking sector. Need to stabilize credit expansion and reform the relationship btw local govts, state-owned enterprises, and state-owned banks. Xi promised to allow market forces to play a decisive role in capital throughout the economy. Called for tighter oversight of state banks involvement in shadow lending and urged trust companies - private intermediaries btw banks and shadow lending markets - to cease credit business. Will introduce 3-5 private banks in order to expand ordinary people access to credit - begins the long process of chipping away at state banking's monopoly on formal lending. Will create municipal bond program to give local govts alternative means of raising capital (reducing reliance on bank loans) - will provide local govts with more budget stability and accountability. Will discourage banks from engaging in overly risky lending by refraining from providing immediate liquidity during cash crunches - temporarily withholding funds from these markets and scaring discipling into state-owned banking sector. Thus this year will see isolated defaults by local govts, state and private enterprises, and state-controlled banks. It is imperitive that Beijing rein in credit growth, and must formalize shadow lending, as well as more sustainable sources for local govt funding. Must also stimulate competition among state banks by allowing more private and foreign capital into the sector. Rather than strike directly at the system's core constraints, Beijing has chosen a more cautious approach, looking to different govt agencies to make incremental adjustments until a foundation is laid and the final reforms can be enacted. It is not ideal, for it means many of the system's core problems will persist for years. But it gains stability for the Party - wants to avoid dramatic instability like the Soviet Union's Perestroika. China is very concerned about reforming too fast - is worried about food security as it reshapes the rural peasantry. This year's No. 1 document called on country to modernize and industrialize Chinese agricultural production and called for deeper rural land reform. But warned of food security. The reform rests on two pillars: 1. Rural land reform (meant to facilitate the steady movement of rural populations to cities by gradually opening farmers' access to rural commercial land markets. Currently land designated as "rural" cannot be sold for commercial development. Rural land reform also strengthens farmers' property rights to ensure that farmers get a fair deal for their land and to prevent urban property developers from exploiting them. Meant to unify rural and urban land markets. Coincides with changes to Hukou, household registration, system, which divides the country's population into rural/agricultural and urban/non-agricultural segments and bars rural residents from accessing urban social services. Ultimately seek to bridge the gap between town and countryside and to create a framework for future urban development that is more equitable than it has been in the past, when a few top-tier cities received the vast majority of resources and migrants while other cities, especially in the interior, languished by comparison. Part of the country's rebalance away from coastal export-oriented manufacturing and toward greater national economic integration and reliance on domestic consumption. 2. Agricultural modernization. When farmers leave their land to move to cities, they need to be replaced by something. For Beijing, this is agricultural industrialization. This means replacing China's traditional model of agricultural production, in which hundreds of millions of farmers work tiny family-owned plots and sell their surplus to urban produce markets, with a model akin to that of the United States and other developed countries, in which relatively few farming conglomerates account for the majority of agricultural output. Ultimately need agricultural modernization. Part of this is moving local govts away from gaining income primarily from land sales. The Communist Party knows that in China, the power stems from the ability to manage the countryside, not the cities. Any temporary disruption in food supply could be catastrophic, especially for staple foods such as wheat and rice. The greater the Party's -- and the public's -- awareness of the political risk in reforming the countryside, the less likely the reforms will proceed quickly. China Credit Trust Co. and the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China announced Jan. 27 that they have arranged for a third-party investor to take control of a $496 million wealth management product that was expected to default Jan. 31, thus offering investors in the original product an opportunity to recoup most or all of the principal on their investment. Funds for the project were transferred to Shanxi-based Zhenfu Energy Group, a coal mining company with a history of financial troubles and that, according to one Chinese source, is already technically bankrupt, with total assets of around $82 million. Technical defaults on such products have thus far been contained by emergency maneuvers to repay investors, while the impact of bankruptcies in coal and other heavily indebted sectors has remained largely localized. But the identity of the third party remains unknown. It could be a signal that the central government itself -- rather than local governments or the corporate sector -- is not yet ready to tolerate fully fledged defaults on "shadow" lending products such as the one in question. A key concept of China's financial reforms has been that the govt will not cover losses resulting from shadow lending for corporations and private investors (this case raises uncertainty of its strictness on this issue). This explains the secrecy regarding the third party. Coal mining company in the Shanxi province received the loan. Shanxi represents 25% of China's coal sector (second only to Inner Mongolia). Heavily indebted private and locally-administered coal companies has become commonplace. Part of this is due to central govt targetting Shanxi for consolidation and streamlining. Have encouraged minimal yearly production, eliminating smaller mining companies that fail to reach these targets. Removal of township and village mines. But forced many smaller firms to expand through debt. In 2011, when coal prices fell, combined with central govt tightening formal credit conditions, resulted in all but the most powerful firms seeking funds elsewhere, from shadow lending (often tied to wealth management funds). Got even worse when local authorities put greater restrictions on pollution for coal firms, all of this put most coal firms on the brink of bankruptcy. Key factor is the potential financial impact of a default. Emergency maneuers have prevented major defaults. Coal, shipbuilding, and steel industries all are threatened. These issues can be expected to further jeopardize smaller private and locally administered coal and steel producers' ability to repay loans in the coming years. New value-based tax on coal output will further harm industry. Could majorly raise costs for producers, leading to more widespread financial woes -- and perhaps bankruptcies -- among all but the largest and most well-connected conglomerates. In the long run, the tax is designed to streamline and standardize costs for coal producers by replacing inconsistent fees charged by local governments. Shanxi then, deserves especial attention in 2014. Has raised new fishing laws in disputed territories. Philippines has called for a larger US military footprint in the country. US will move its most developed aircraft carrier to Japan. But most of China's aggressive strategy comes from its need to placate its public - to reinforce nationalism in the midst of economic slowing. Will spark isolated incidents for a few weeks, but as soon as the US starts paying attention, it shifts the tensions to a different region. A smart China will wait out the process until its military fully modernizes and grows - it is still the fastest growing military in the region. Nationalism helps ensures the easing of public pressure on his administration while they are undergoing an economic shift.

Colombia

Capital - Bogota Pres Juan Manuel Santos (2010 to present). Social Party of National Unity Álvaro Uribe Vélez - 2002-10. EVERY single pres has served one four-year term, except Uribe, who served two. Revolutionary Armed Forces of Columbia - FARC - negotiating seats in congress & legal amnesty for leaders. Most citizens support peace, but not amnesty or representation. Deadline set for November. Pres & local elections in Spring. Santos is far ahead, but depends on FARC deal Ex-Pres Alvaro Uribe opposes negotiations (Democratic Center Party) Self sufficient in natural gas - just began exporting to Venezuela 4th largest coal exporter. 23-oil, 39-gas Santos is trying to restore the Magdalena River. The primary Columbian waterway btw Andean interior and Caribbean coast. Along with the Amazon, Parana, Orinoco, Magdalena is one of Latin America's great waterways. Competition from road and rail has made the river lose all its relevance, only really ships liquid hydrocarbons. Construction will be dredging, channel improvements, and protective levees. Columbia lacks indigenous expertise, so is using outsiders to ensure success. Columbia suffers from very high transportation costs, which cuts into profit margins. BC river transport makes up such a small portion of trade in the country, its reconstruction will have a small effect-must be complemented by major rail and road improvements. Santos's presidency has been dedicated to expanding economy and peace negotiations with FARC. Just as reaching peace accord will not rid the country of criminality, neither will river program rid country of transportation challenges US supported the Columbian hunt for Pablo Escobar. Wealthy Colombian drug lord and an elusive cocaine trafficker. Shot and killed by Columbian police. Medellín Cartel. Robin Hood image he created for himself. ELN - Second largest leftist rebel group - National Liberation Army. Progress in FARC negotiations and Santos' political popularity make the peace discussions possible. 1,500 troops. Led by Nicolas Rodriguez (Gabino). Like FARC in 2012, the ELN also proposed a mutual cease-fire with the gov. Carries out politically motivated attacks on security forces and energy targets in Arauca. Has increased the tempo of attacks against oil pipelines and energy workers since September, and, like FARC, will not end such attacks during negotiations, to pressure the govt. BC Santos' political support remains high, and partial agreements have been made with FARC over land reform and political participation, Santos could manage both negotiations simultaneously. Deal with FARC will be reached this year, bringing an end to the West's longest insurgency. Pres Juan Manuel Santos will seek to conclude negotiations by presidental elections in May, and will hold a national popular referendum to seal the deal. Will then work towards starting formal peace talks with the ELN. Santos will work to appease disgruntled farmers and struggling manufacturers by creating new economic policies that are more supportive of local production. Waste management scandal - Opposition to Bogota mayor are trying to remove him from his position and ban him from politics for 15 years for delaying the collection of waste for consecutive days in 2012. Gustavo Petro, the mayor, is a former leftist militant. His adversary, Inspector-General Alejandro Ordonez is leading the charges. This political battle shows the rift btw the two major rightist camps - the Uribistas led by Uribe, and the faction led by Santos. The inspector general is known to be close to Uribe, and his new party, the Centro Democratico. Uribe wants to remove Petro and install a CD politician. Many think Petro is being targeted for his leftist policies and militant past. Also significant that Uribe is challenging a sitting leftist figure, while the FARC negotiations are looking to incorporate Marxist ideology into Colombia's political system. Uribe hates FARC, and his uribistas oppose the negotiations strongly. Petro's fate will go to the Supreme court, and any decision would have to be signed by Santos. If he refused to let him be kicked out, he would open himself to major criticism. If he booted him, it would undermine the FARC negotiations. Genius move by Uribe.

Slovakia

Capital - Bratislava PM Robert Fico. Took over in 2012 Smer Party - Center left, very popular Former PM Iveta Radicova - Slovak Democratic and Christian Union-Democratic Party -- Center right. Lost vote of no confidence in 2011 after corruption scandal. Still relies heavily on Soviet defense tech Prague Spring-eight months in 1968. Reformist Alexander Dubcek was elected leader of Communist Party in Czechoslovakia. Wanted to decentralize and liberalize the economy and politics. Loosen restrictions on speech, media, and travel. Soviet Union invaded with all Warsaw countries. Gustav Husak took over as president and reversed all reforms. Would remain under Soviet control until 1989 Velvet Revolution (Slovaks call it the Gentle Revolution). Ended 41 years of Communist rule. Nonviolent. November, 1989 police broke up student riot. Poland, Hungary and other Warsaw countries had dismantled Communist govts. Gustav Husak ended single-party state and resigned, Alexander Dubcek became speaker of parliament, and Vaclav Havel was elected President. Havel would be the last president of Czechoslovakia Dissolution of Czechoslovakia (Velvet Divorce)-January 1, 1993. No violence. Czech Republic was always better off economically and Prague was the center of politics. Communism spread much faster and easier in Czech than Slovakia Almost no natural resources. Ukraine is looking to Slovakia - would allow Ukraine to get some gas from West through reverse flows (gas would still be Russian but purchased at lower price than buying directly from Gazprom). Has imported small amounts of reverse gas from Poland and Hungary. But Slovakia worries that relationship w Russia will sour if it offers Ukraine an alternative supply. But Russia does not have a stake in Slovakia's natural gas network and thus little direct control. But Russia can offer lower natural gas prices or investment in other areas. Like Bulgaria and Hungary, government relies on lower energy prices to appease voters Western regions are more prosperous because of their proximity to Central European markets. Bratislava and other western areas are closely connected to the Germanic world and have low unemployment rates and strong economies. Recent regional elections represented strong victory for Smer Party, but Marian Kotleba's (totally evil looking) far-right People's Party-Our Slovakia, will now govern Banska Bystrica. Won in a run-off, which is designed to prevent fringe parties from winning (hence why France's National Front is not represented well). Kotleba created the far-right Slovak Togetherness-National Party (Slovak Congregation) in 2005, pushing anti-Roma and anti-Semitic rhetoric, as well as opposition to NATO, EU, and the IMF. Was disbanded in 2008, but created new party in 2010. Used to wear black uniforms and espouse pro-Nazi sentiment. Now has campaigned on job-creation. Banska Bystrica is located in center, but has large Hungarian population and Romani community. Whereas in northern Europe the main targets of far-right parties are Muslim minorities, in Central and Eastern Europe they are Roma. Significant Hungarian minority, that Hungary uses to its political advantage. Buffered from Russia behind the Carpathians. Is the only Central European country in the eurozone. Most economically integrated with the EU. But dependent on Russia for gas (63%). But less susceptible to Russian economic penetration and strategic acquisitions.

Hungary

Capital - Budapest PM Viktor Orban - firebrand (98-02) (2010-present) Ruling Party - Fidesz 10 million Main opposition - Hungarian Socialist Party Opposition - Jobbik - anti-Roma. Some formed the Hungarian Dawn (based off Greece's Golden Dawn). Fidesz sees a strong state as crucial for the country to deal with its geopolitical challenges. Centralizing power in state hands - weakening judiciary, nationalization of energy - could become a template for other regional leaders to follow Few natural resources Parliament approved controversial financial measures- social relief packages will strain Hungary's finances and create more tensions with foreign companies and the EU Now has a 2/3 majority in parliament-has allowed it to extend state intervention into economy. Nationalized private pensions, trying to neutralize the judiciary, and nationalizing energy assets (all brought great criticism from abroad). Banking sector was hurt in 2008 - Hungarian households and companies took out foreign currency-dominated loans. Imposed a fixed exchange rate, rate of non-performing loans is rising quickly Orban is trying to get support from diaspora abroad, especially the large populations in Romania, Slovakia, and Serbia. Leftist opposition is fragmented- Hungarian Socialist Party is struggling to form coalition with E14-PM and Democratic Coalition Matyas Rakosi - From 1945-56 he led brutal communist regime. Hungarian Revolution/Uprising of 1956 - Lasted only just over two weeks. Began as a student/writers demonstration marching through Budapest, blasting Radio Free Europe. Students entered a radio broadcasting building, were captured, and when people demanded their release, State Security police (AVH) shot at them. Government collapsed, militias formed - knocked down giant Stalin statue, leaving just the boots, stuck Hungarian flag in shoes. Cut Soviet icon from Hungarian flag. After announcing a willingness to negotiate with new liberal government, Soviets changed their mind. Soviet army crushed militias. Government relies on cheap energy prices to attract voters Also behind the Carpathians. But the financial sector has been vulnerable to the EU crisis. Led them to carry out controversial nationalizations in the banking and energy sectors. Is deeply skeptical about economic integration with the union. 49% of gas comes from Russia. After WWI, Hungary lost a significant portion of its territory in the Pannonian plain. But more importantly, it lost direct access to the Adriatic when it was stripped of its territories (roughly corresponds with Slovenia and Croatia today). Hungary had invested fortunes into the coastal city of Fiume to challenge the Habsburg Empire's largest seaport of Trieste (by 1914). Was supposed to be Budapest's gate to the Mediterranean and western Europe. Now Fiume is called Rijeka and is Croatia's largest port and a major balkan oil import terminal. Without its port, Hungary's only viable maritime route is the slow and meandering Danube. Hungary always wanted to be part of the West, but was locked behind the Iron Curtain following WWII. After breaking out of the Soviet Union in 89, Hungary immediately shifted its gaze back to the West. But with the financial crisis, Brussels is focusing its attention on the Core, ignoring Central European countries. Caught on the other side by a resurgent Russia. Unable to obtain financial and security guarantees from the West or from the US (being focused on the middle East and east asia), Hungary had no choice but to move toward Russia, whose energy and investment it desperately needs. Orban cautiously supported putin's South Stream pipeline. By concentrating as much political, legal, and economic power as possible within his hands, Orban is giving himself maximum leverage to negotiate with Russia (Orban nationalized natural gas storage facilities and utility providers). Relationship with Croatia soured further when Tito and Stalin broke. Both had been wanting to create the Adria oil pipeline linking Croatia's terminal to Hungary. But Moscow made the Hungarian socialist puppet govt support the Russian Druzhba pipeline instead. Adria pipeline had to wait until both countries were freed from the Soviets. Hungary has a significant presence in the Croatian energy sector. Hungarian oil and natural gas giant MOL is Hungary's largest company and is one of the government's largest sources of revenue. It is the largest stakeholder in Croatian energy firm INA. INA was a state-owned company until Croatia privatized its energy sector to join the EU. MOL bought 49% of the new shares. MOL has demanded broader management powers from INA, which Croatia has viciously rejected. MOL has in turn threatened to sell its stake in INA, but Croatia can ill afford the several billion $ needed to purchase the shares. Meanwhile, Russian firms have offered to buy the shares. Having one of Croatia's most strategic assets fall into Russian hands would reverse Croatia's western reorientation. But Stratfor assumes MOL's threat is simply meant as pressure tactics to gain a greater hold over the Croatian company. Would allow Orban to have a greater say in the shaping of Croatia's energy future. If Russia moves closer to Hungary, Orban could extract lower natural gas prices and gain economic relief from Moscow. If the EU moves closer to Hungary, he could help move the country away from Russian energy and potentially make Budapest an energy hub for the region. General elections scheduled for 2014. Orban will run on a heavily anti-EU and populist campaign. Will continue to expand control over economy through banks and utility companies. Will also look to pressure compromise over Russia's antitrust case, as it and Bulgaria will gain from South Stream's completion. Orban is extending control over the Hungarian banking sector, which is heavily owned (2/3) by foreign banks (Austria, Italy, Germany). Rather than expropriating banks directly, the government is more likely to execute its strategy incrementally, pressuring banks to deleverage their assets so that Budapest and local companies can buy them out relatively cheaply. Orban said that foreign ownership of most of Hungary's banks is not healthy, and wants to reclaim 50% of them. Banks will continue to see Hungary as a difficult place to conduct business. Will begin to reach agreements with local businessmen and leave Hungary. Budapest is slowly squeezing foreign banks, and many will sell their units at discount prices to the Hungarian state or to local groups close to Fidesz. Won't be too forceful, Orban would prefer to buy them out cheaply and slowly. Businessmen and local oligarchs will participate in the buyout. Notably, the EU Commission has done nothing but occasionally criticize Hungarian policies. Orban is seeking to partly undo the economic liberalizations that began in the 90's. Also trying to pursue policies independent of the EU. The EU realizes that its main threat is other countries in the region following this model of progressively independent policies. During the European crisis, the local 'forint' currency was devalued - caused major problems for local banks in Budapest. Most of these banks offered loans (especially mortgages) in euros or Swiss francs. People couldn't pay off thier loans, so the Hungarian govt passed measures that converted these loans to forints at lower exchange rates. Imposed conversion of foreign-denominated loans. Orban realizes that it is increasingly isolated and ignored by the European core, which is busy trying to solve the problems of the eurozone. Hungary must balance ties between EU and Russia. Ultimately, Hungary is trying to take control of its domestic situation to create more room to maneuver in negotiations with both sides. All of Orban's controversial strategies have inteded to give the state more power. Centralizing power will improve Budapest's negotiating position in a rapidly changing political environment. Orban is determined to nationalize utility companies and reduce utility costs for households. Will be a very popular move, especially with general elections coming up. Wants greater control over the country's energy sector. Hungary is considering buying land in Western Romania. This land in the west is lived on by the Hungarian-speaking Szekely minority live. Central European countries are trying to maintain national control over agricultural lands. This issue of extraterritorial land ownership could be useful for Orban's elections. Goal is to prevent Westerners from buying this land - afraid that individuals and companies in the West would take advantage of their stronger economies to buy cheap farmland in the new EU states (04-07). In 2012, Orban approved a bill banning foreign investors from buying farmland. Hungary still feels intensely slighted by the 1920 Treaty of Trianon, which dismembered the country and gave the lands in question to Romania. Peace agreement signed in 1920, at the end of World War I, between the Allies of World War I and the Kingdom of Hungary. Was left with only 28% of the Hungarian empire (the Hungarian half of the Austro-Hungarian empire). Resulted in large Hungarian minorities in many of the surrounding states. Was left without access to the sea. The treaty limited Hungary's army to 35,000 officers and men, while the navy of pre-war Austria-Hungary ceased to exist. Self-determination gave the non-ethnic Hungarians the right to build their own states - Romania, Czechoslovakia, and Yugoslavia. Orban's 'Eastern Opening Policy' - While the details have yet to be published, Putin and Orban signed a deal Jan. 14, whereby Russia will reportedly lend Hungary up to $13.7 billion to upgrade the Soviet-era Paks nuclear power plant. The loan will be repaid over a 30-year term and will likely allow Russia to play a much larger role in Hungary's energy sector.

Portugal

Capital - Lisbon 11 million PM - Pedro Passos Coelho - Conservative - Social Democratic Party - In a coalition with two smaller parties, Democratic and Social Center-People's Party. Passos Coelho's government has to deal with opposition from left-wing parties, unions and, most notably, a very assertive Constitutional Court that often blocks the government's economic reforms. Its last overseas territory was handed over to China in 1999, Macau One of three EU states with highest unemployment rates. Former PM José Sócrates (05-11) Center left Socialist Party leader. Expected to end its bailout program by mid 2014. Portuguese society has historically been quiet, averse to protests. In a trend that has also been registered in Spain, foreign tourism is becoming increasingly important because the crisis has severely hampered domestic tourism. Like other destinations in southern Europe, Portugal benefited this year from the political crises in competing tourism destinations such as Egypt and Turkey. Lusophone (Portugeuse) Africa - Angola, Cape Verde, Guinea-Bissau, Mozambique and São Tomé and Príncipe. Carnation Revolution - 1974. A military coup in Lisbon, Portugal on 25 April 1974 which overthrew the regime of the Estado Novo. The revolution started as a military coup organized by the Movimento das Forças Armadas (Armed Forces Movement, MFA), composed of military officers who opposed the regime, but the movement was soon coupled with an unanticipated and popular campaign of civil resistance. This movement would lead to the fall of the Estado Novo and the withdrawal of Portugal from its African colonies. Took to the streets to celebrate the end of the dictatorship and war in the colonies, carnation flowers were put into the muzzles of rifles and on the uniforms of the army Antonio de Oliveira Salazar - PM from 1932 to 1968. Very much in the same fashion as Franco and Mussolini. Dictator. Opposed to communism, socialism, anarchism and liberalism, Salazar's rule was corporatist, conservative, and nationalistic in nature. At home, Salazar's government and its secret police PIDE repressed civil liberties and political freedoms in order to remain in control of Portugal. Salazar remains thoroughly popular among a right-wing section of the Portuguese public. The Azores - small group of islands to West of Europe. Nine islands in a cluster. One of two autonomous regions in Portugal.

Taiwan

Taipei President Ma Ying-jeou took over in 2008. His policy agenda is known as 'Flexible Diplomacy' Kuomintang - ruling party Democratic Progressive Party - opposition Chiang Kai-Shek developed swiftly and improved quality of life and governance Developing anti-submarine technology to patrol for Chinese nuclear subs attempting to enter the Phillipine Sea through Luzon Strait Gambia cut ties with country to court mainland China. 22 remaining diplomatic allies support Taiwan. But African, Oceania, and Central American nations are requesting diplomatic ties with China. Ruling Kuomintang has lost popularity. But its policy has forged a truce of sorts with China, establishing economic ties without direct diplomatic contact and avoiding politically sensitive issues. Very successful - has allowed Taiwan to keep its allies without competing w/ China financially in those countries. China supported this policy, because it increased economic cooperation and kept Taiwan dependent on the mainland. Opposition Democratic Progressive Party - policy of independence and zero-sum diplomacy with Beijing. Left Taiwan isolated With each ally lost, it has a harder time maintaining its international position Elections in 2016 Must rely on oil and coal imports for 85% of its energy. Has four refineries. Imports most of the oil from Gulf and Angola Sixth largest LNG importer, mostly supplied by Qatar, Malaysia, and Indonesia Its response to China's new ADIZ has been critical but restrained. Similar strategy as US - different guidelines for military aircraft and commercial carriers. Will discuss a long-anticipated deal to relax controls on cross-strait trade-in-goods and -- according to recent speculation -- a possible meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou during an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit later this year. But Wang's visit comes amid prolonged political gridlock in Taipei and an internal crisis within Taiwan's ruling Kuomintang (Nationalist) Party. These factors threaten to undermine the Ma administration's efforts to deepen cross-strait economic cooperation and could exacerbate what Ma, in a Jan. 30 speech, called Taiwan's unprecedented crisis of marginalization. This spring's session of parliament will test Ma's ability to rebuild trust and unity among Kuomintang legislators in the wake of an internal power struggle that began last September between Ma and Wang Jin-pyng, president of the parliament and a one-time rival of Ma's for the Kuomintang Party chairmanship. exposed deep rifts within the Kuomintang -- namely, between its "mainlander" (referring to inhabitants who came to Taiwan from China after 1949) and "native" contingents. In doing so, it has raised concerns over the party's long-term unity and its ability to compete in upcoming local elections, including that for Taipei's mayor, due at the end of 2014. These elections will set the stage for legislative and presidential elections in 2016. Ma recently tried to oust Wang Jin-pyng from his position in the parliament and Kuomintang. Ma administration's struggle to get parliamentary approval of a China-Taiwan services trade agreement, originally signed in June 2013. Deal opens 80 service sectors in the mainland to competition from Taiwanese companies (compared to only 64 sectors in Taiwan) is widely seen as favoring larger Taiwanese firms, which generally have more experience in overseas franchising than their Chinese counterparts. It was Wang Jin-pyng's decision to subject that agreement to a line-by-line review that, in large part, triggered Ma's push to oust him from office last September, on grounds that Wang had abused his political power. Wang's decision followed widespread protests from opposition politicians and local business leaders, who argued that the pact would hurt small and medium-sized Taiwanese businesses. Those critical of the pact believe that such businesses would not be able to compete with deep-pocketed mainland companies in sectors like entertainment, logistics, e-commerce and finance. The most important impact of the deal will be helping Taiwan secure the mainland's blessing as it pursues other regional trade agreements, notably participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Deal was expected to be signed by end of 2013, but got caught up in political infighting. This is especially important at a time when South Korea -- which many in Taiwan see as the island's key economic competitor -- is also negotiating a free trade agreement with Beijing. If the services trade agreement is voted down or delayed beyond the first half of the year, it will likely erase what little political capital the Ma administration retains within the Kuomintang, as well as nationally. More important, it could damage whatever confidence mainland China has in Ma's administration. In addition, it would almost certainly mean pushing any cross-strait agreement on trade-in-goods back to the end of 2014 or 2015. But public dissaproval is not limited to the Kuomintang - also targets the opposition parties. Some believe a new third front could open up. The Kuomintang needs support from the mainland in order to strengthen its constituent base and provide economic leverage. Read more: Taiwan's Political Gridlock Threatens Its Regional Position and Cooperation with China | Stratfor Follow us: @stratfor on Twitter | Stratfor on Facebook

97 Asian Economic Crisis

'Asian Contagion' Currency devaluations spread throughout Southeast Asia Began in Thailand -- Soon spread to Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Hong Kong, South Korea, China.Then Russia and Brazil's economy fell apart and global stocks plummeted. Began when Thailand spent billions in foreign reserves to protect local currency against speculative attacks. Could no longer be pegged to USD. Then had to devalue and ask the IMF for support. Malaysia, Indonesia, and Philippines try and defend their local currencies -- many are devalued. When foreign reserves are depleted, currencies float. Led to Indonesian president Suharto being forced to step down in '98 By '99 the countries had recovered Following the crisis, countries developed protectionist policies and bought tons of USD for large reserve holdings

Argentina

Buenos Aires President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner (2007-present) - second term. Front for Victory Party/Judicialist party Husband former pres Nestor Kirchner (2003-07) - pursued populist economic policies, handing out fat subsidies and increasing demand. Country has transitioned from a net exporter to net importer. Kirchner relied on imports of oil and natural gas. Front for Victory Party/Judicialist party Carlos Menem (pres from 89-99) Judicialist party Declining energy sector - trying to improve terms on its regulatory system to lure investment. Three major areas of reform Natural gas is particularly struggling. Fixed domestic prices low and prohibited exports. Producers retreated from country. Began importing gas from Bolivia and LNG sources. Has allowed Bolivia to boom in energy field. Chile had relied on Argentine gas, but now had to find other sources. YPF - Argentine energy company. Was first oil company established as state enterprise outside of Soviet Union - first state oil company to become vertically-controlled. Was nationalized at 51% by Kirchner in 2012. BC it is limited from borrowing internationally, it will require partners for any new projects. Paris's Total is largest producer in Argentina Energy rebirth can only come about through political transition. It will prove far to difficult for Kirchner to roll back subsidies without alienating her voters. This will allow energy companies to better cooperate with investors, and enthusiastically enter the Argentine market. Decade of subsidies must be reversed, as well as practices of economic interventionism, currency controls, price controls. Must stop expropriations (State taking over assets/property rights to exercise its sovereignty) Investors are deterred by risks Largely isolated form international capital markets and has rapidly falling foreign reserves Largest producer and consumer of natural gas in South America (#22). Petroleum (#25) Ernesto 'Che' Guevara - Followed Focoism - Major figure within Cuban revolution. After Cuba fought in Congo and Bolivia. Was captured by Bolivian CIA agents and executed. Central principle is that vanguardism by cadres of small, fast-moving paramilitary groups can provide a focus (in Spanish, foco) for popular discontent against a sitting regime, and thereby lead a general insurrection. Differed from Maoism and Marxism, which believed in extensive political preparation among the peasant citizenry before launching an armed struggle. Needs FDI in critical infrastructure, but significant social spending, high inflation, falling reserves all hinder the process. After 2011 elections, put in place restrictive economic polices, restricting trade w Mercosur partners. Significant tensions with exporters in Brazil and Uruguay over this move. But de Kirchner is looking to loosen these restrictions and lift all on brazil - could provide relief for automobile and shoemaking industries. Considering trade negotiations with the EU Strong manipulation of inflation statistics. Must resolve outstanding debt, to prevent continued alienation from international capital markets. Massive debt default began in 2001-2. Working with Mexican Petroleos Mexicanos to compensate Spanish energy firm Repsol for Argentina's nationalization of YPF in 2012. Could make it far easier to attract investment in its promising oil and gas deposits. Russia and China are looking to invest in hydroelectric damns. New focus towards hydroelectricity. Must get access to international financing Problems providing electricity to industry and households. The Dirty War (76-83) began when pres. Isabel Peron was overthrown and replaced with three-man military junta, led by Jorge Rafael Videla. A period of state terrorism in Argentina against political dissidents, with military and security forces conducting urban and rural guerrilla warfare against left-wing guerrillas, political dissidents, and anyone believed to be associated with socialism. Victims of the violence included an estimated 10,000 to 30,000 dead left-wing activists and militants, including trade unionists, students, journalists, Marxists, and alleged sympathizers. The guerrillas were responsible for causing at least 6,000 casualties among the military, police forces and civilian population according to a National Geographic Magazine article in the mid-1980s. The disappeared ones were considered to be a political or ideological threat to the military junta and their disappearances was attempt to silence the opposition and break the determination of the guerillas. Power in Argentina has a strong territorial element, as power is measured in the number of people political actors can take to the streets. Mass public discontent has a history in Argentine politics. Most powerful political leaders are those who can organize the largest rallies, and in turn lead the largest number of people to polling stations. Has its roots in peronism, which was founded in 1945 when thousands rallied in Buenos Aires to deman the release of Juan Peron, who was put in prison by the military regime. Peronism is one of the most significant populist movements in the modern era. Has its roots in the process of mass migration from the countryside to the city, due to industrialization in early 20th century. It is a movement of inclusion for the masses of people traditionally neglected by the political system. Peron was an Argentine military officer and politician. After serving in several government positions, including those of Minister of Labour and Vice President of the Republic, he was three times elected as President of Argentina, serving from June 1946 to September 1955, when he was overthrown by a coup d'état, and from October 1973 to July 1974. Juan and Evita Perón are still considered icons by the Peronists. The Peróns' followers praised their efforts to eliminate poverty and to dignify labor, while their detractors considered them demagogues and dictators. The Peróns gave their name to the political movement known as Peronism, which in present-day Argentina is represented mainly by the Justicialist Party. Buenos Aires is thus the heart of political power in Argentina, as it is the wealthiest and most populous province. Fernandez sent security forces to buenos Aires to confront police riots and lootings. Lootings have become standards in Argentina as well. They undermine political groups in power, by showing they lack control. They frighten the middle and upper classes. Looting has directly led to the fall of two presidents. In 89, the first president since the return of democracy to Argentina, Raul Alfonsin of the Radical Civic Union party, resigned. And in 2001, Fernando de la Rua of the Radical Civic Union, resigned after a week of lootings. Very strong connection btw lootings and political crises. The RCU still accuses the Peronist of orchestrating the looitngs. The current wave of lootings is due to lower classes being unfairly affected by high inflation. The middle class has removed support from Fernandez. Thus the next two weeks will be crucial for the future of the gov. Will be a crazy next two years, as Fernandez has lost congressional support, cannot be reelected, and lacks a successor. De Kirchner will spend 2014 looking for a successor. Economic situation will continue to deteriorate. Will soften its trade restrictions to gain access to international capital markets. Will continue to make piecemeal concessions to attract investment, particularly in the energy sector. But will not be able to deviate from the protectionist, interventionist economic policies it has systematically implemented over the past decade. Social unrest is a fact of life in Argentina, and there will continue to be farmers, middle class, labor, and other disaffected sectors of societies that will take to the streets in 2014. Elections in 2015. Argentina's Banks Depend on Agriculture - Steep but anticipated decline in the value of the peso. Buenos Aires is forcing banks to sell off foreign currency reserves. Argentine central bank is essentially forcing banks to sell off their holdings of foreign currency and foreign-denominated assets, including bonds and futures contracts. Designed to relieve pressure on Argentina's struggling local currency markets but will reduce the country's long-term buffer against a currency crisis. Could create further conflict btw govt and agricultural sector. Devaluation was inevitable due to the growing spread between the black market peso value and the official rate over recent months. The growing spread was a growing demand for dollars to hedge against the peso's growing inflation. At the moment, central bank's policies have stabiliized the black market rate. The core problem threatening Argentina's reserves of foreign currency is the decline in industrial output and the overreliance on the agricultural sector (soybeans) to export enough goods to supply foreign currency reserves. Selling soybeans abroad provides foreign exchange, which is critical for paying for net imports of natural gas, fuel, machinery, electronics and cars. But it is still a net importer of energy products. Following the 2001-2 economic crisis, the gov initiated HUGE populist policies - These policies included large subsidies in energy and public transportation as well as social plans and price controls. The impact has been to spur consumption of everything from beef to natural gas without increasing revenues to the companies producing those goods. As a result, productive capacity has declined as companies became unable or unwilling to increase investments to meet rising demand. To ensure stability, the gov has expanded money supply, leading to persistent inflation. This leads to declining confidence in the peso. Argentines have been pulling billions of dollars out of the economy every year for several years now. This capital flight has meant that despite trade surpluses, the Argentine economy is locked in a fierce internal battle for control of hard assets and foreign currency. It is this struggle that led to the 2008 nationalization of the country's pension funds as well as a major confrontation between the government of Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner and farmers after a failed effort to raise export taxes to 45 percent. The 2012 decision to seize control of oil company YPF from Spanish energy firm Repsol also stems from this, since the government has struggled to get resource extraction companies, including YPF, to increase investment and output in order to limit the country's reliance on imports. Ultimately, the government is counting on agricultural exports after the harvest in March and April to replenish draining reserves. This will give Argentine farmers an enormous amount of political leverage, which may lead them to push back harder against the government on key issues. Argentine regulations have made it so that Argentina's farmers export dollar-denominated goods but receive payments in pesos at an unfavorable rate set by the government.n protest, and in anticipation of the recent devaluation, farmers have been withholding exports, with just over 4 million tons that the industry estimates are stockpiled in reserves. In addition to these reserves, Argentina is expecting a very good harvest this year. As a result, prospects for a strong influx of foreign capital are good -- if the government can persuade farmers to actually export. This need will give the farmers a strong basis from which to negotiate for better terms in their contracts with the government. Read more: Argentina's Banks Depend on Agriculture | Stratfor Follow us: @stratfor on Twitter | Stratfor on Facebook Read more: Argentina's Banks Depend on Agriculture | Stratfor Follow us: @stratfor on Twitter | Stratfor on Facebook

East African development

Energy consumption will be on the rise in economic centers as they transition to low-grade manufacturing hubs.

Inflation

The overall rise in cost over time. The rate of this increase is inflation % The value of your money (purchasing power) decreases Demand for goods and services is always more than supply, causing prices to rise and thus inflation Developed economies try to keep inflation at 3% CPI (Consumer Prices Index)(cost of average consumer goods) and RPI (Retail Prices Index)(cost of housing goods) measure inflation That's why inflation is a crucial factor in determining the rates banks charge for mortgages and the rates they offer on savings accounts.

Interest Rates

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Mali

Bamako Elections will soon be held 15 million ppl Stratfor failed to predict such a swift French intervention - This was due to an unexpected islamist offensive south of the Niger river, which threatened the initial staging areas for the intervention. France was forced to mount a rapid military operation to secure the sites

Romania

Bucharest PM Victor Ponta - Social Liberal Union party Pres Basescu - Democratic Liberal Party Traian Băsescu. Since 2004. Was temporarily suspended from office in 07 and 12, but came back one month later both times Nicolae Ceaușescu. Communist president. 67-89. His rule was the most rigidly Stalinist in the Soviet bloc. His secret police, the Securitate, maintained strict controls over speech and the media, and internal dissent was not tolerated. Ceaușescu's regime collapsed after he ordered his security forces to fire on antigovernment demonstrators in the city of Timișoara on 17 December 1989. The demonstrations spread to Bucharest and became known as the Romanian Revolution of 1989, which was the only violent overthrow of a Communist government during the revolutions of 1989. Ceaușescu and his wife, Elena, fled the capital in a helicopter but were captured by the armed forces. On 25 December the couple were hastily tried and convicted by a special military tribunal on charges of mass murder in a two-hour court session. Ceaușescu and his wife were then shot by a firing squad. He stood up to the Soviets - condemned their invasion of Czechoslovakia Gheorghe Gheorghiu-Dej -- Ruled Romania from 47-65. Died and power went to Ceausescu, but feared his evil ways. Will allow US transit to & from Afghanistan through Mihail Kogalniceanu Air Base-will replace Kyrgyzstan's Manas base as main transit center. Will host US anti-missile interceptors as part Nato's ballistic missile defense system Has been seeking US security commitment for years Has the most oil refineries in Eastern Europe - 4th largest oil reserves in Europe (50 production worldwide) 97% of natural gas is imported from Russia. Trying to develop its own shale gas - public opposition to shale, however (40 production world) Turkey has been searching for Black Sea energy since 1970, with little reward. Investors are more interested in Romania's black sea coast. Only country in Central and Eastern Europe that had violence during the '89 revolutions. Northern and western countries are resisting it's accession to the Schengen Zone Significant Hungarian minority, that Hungary uses to its political advantage. Same situation as Slovakia Along with Poland, is one of the most aggressive against Moscow. Largely due to dispute over Moldova. Sought US ballistic missile defense, and allowed US and NATO to use bases for operations in Afghanistan. Depends on Russian energy less than other Central European countries (20%) because it produces its own oil and gas. But is one of the least integrated with the EU economically. Is more willing to cooperate with Russia economically, but highly skeptical of Russia on security matters. In WW2, was initially focused on neutrality. Fascist political forces such as the Iron Guard rose in popularity and power, urging an alliance with Nazi Germany and its allies. As the military fortunes of Romania's two main guarantors of territorial integrity — France and Britain — crumbled in the Fall of France, the government of Romania turned to Germany in hopes of a similar guarantee, unaware that Berlin had already granted its consent to Soviet territorial claims in a secret protocol of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. The popularity of Romania's government plummeted, further reinforcing the fascist and military factions, who eventually staged a coup that turned the country into a fascist dictatorship. The new regime firmly set the country on a course towards the Axis camp, officially joining the Axis powers on 23 November 1940. Romania joined the invasion of the Soviet Union, providing equipment and oil to Nazi Germany as well as committing more troops to the Eastern Front than all the other allies of Germany combined. Romanian forces played a large role during the fighting in Ukraine, Bessarabia, Stalingrad, and elsewhere. After the tide of war turned against the Axis, Romania was bombed by the Allies from 1943 onwards and invaded by advancing Soviet armies in 1944. With popular support for Romania's participation in the war faltering and German-Romanian fronts collapsing under Soviet onslaught, King Michael of Romania led a coup d'état, which deposed the Antonescu regime and put Romania on the side of the Allies for the remainder of the war. Post war, Greater Romania was largely dismantled, losing territory to Bulgaria and the Soviet Union. Washington is criticizing Basescu's imprisonment of former PM Nastase. Romania is a member of the EU and NATO, and is firmly within the western alliance system. And after the closure of the Manas base in Kyrgyzstan, Romania will host a new US air base to help in the withdrawal from Afghanistan. But US relations are exponentially more important for Romania, as it knows the US is the only security backer who can protect it from Russia. This is why the country has so eagerly pursued NATO missions. EU is worried that Bucharest will go the same way as Hungary, where the Fidesz party is using its control of parliament to gain more traction over its own economy and politics. Since coming to power in late 2012 Ponta has been trying to abandon the semi-presidential system and move towards a parliamentary system, which would diminish the role of the president and move power to parliament. Social Liberal Union holds 2/3 of the seats in parliament. Parliament will vote on constitutional change in March. Wants to hold a referendum on the constitution in May, coinciding with the European Parliamentary elections. New constitution will probably give more power to the parliament to take quicker and more decisive actions in responding to Central and Eastern Europe's shifting geopolitical environment. Hungarians and Romanians have historically competed for the lands west of the Carpathians -- most notably Transylvania, which is currently under Romanian control. Ponta's party is a coalition of leftist parties. Romanians voted for it bc they were frustrated w two years of instability stemming from conflicts btw parliament and presidency. Wants to severely weaken the role of the president. Unlike most European nations, Romania is a semi-presidential regime, which means the president is allowed to veto laws and represent the country abroad and has a key role in the appointment of the government.The shortcomings of the system were laid bare in 2012 and 2013, when center-right President Traian Basescu had to serve alongside the center-left Ponta, leading to several political clashes between the two that slowed decision-making. The reforms would make the position of president largely ceremonial. Parliament would become the main decision-making body. Votes of no confidence would become near impossible. Would weaken the constitutional court - maintain its role of questioning the constitutionality of legislation but would not be able to question decisions made by the parliament, including, for example, the power to organize referendums. The notion of becoming a parliamentary republic does not necessarily mean that the Romanian regime would become more authoritarian; these reforms are common to streamline decision-making. Romania wants a central gov that would be quicker to react to regional events. But Ponta's coalition is not as united as Orban's. The ruling Social Liberal Union includes Ponta's Social Democratic Party and the National Liberal Party, led by Antonescu. While formally in a coalition, these parties do not always cooperate and, in the long term, have their own electoral aspirations. And Ponta has a relatively strong parliamentary opposition. Basescu, whose term ends in December, and his center-right Democratic Liberal Party are currently unpopular, but their extensive network of political connections makes them strong. Referendums in Romania are difficult - In 2013 the Social Liberal Union failed to oust Basescu because not enough people voted during an impeachment referendum. Unlike in Hungary, the Romanian government has not made any systematic attempt to reduce the participation of foreign companies in the banking or utilities sector or tried to undermine the independence of the central bank.

Republic of the Congo

Capital - Brazzaville President-Denis Sassou-Nguesso Angolan troops invaded Republic of Congo's land in October to fight the Front for the Liberation of the Enclave of Cabinda (wants Cabinda's independence since 1963). Rebels retreat to ROC territory- little army presence there bc of mountanous and porous territory. French essentially run a vibrant, modernizing country.

Russia

Capital-Moscow President Vladimir Putin Duma Has abandoned its intimidation tactics for buying strategic commercial assets in Central Europe to regain influence Consolidating judiciary to increase Kremlin's power - largest structural changes since Putin in early 2000's-will allow Putin power in regional and local admins Siloviki faction - security hawks Civiliki faction - reformist and liberal-Dmitri Medvedev Oct. 21 suicide bombing by Dagestani citizen. Caucasus Emirate group-carried out Moscow metro attacks in '10 and Domodedovo airport bombing in '11 - has threatened more attacks w 2014 Sochi Olympics-on coast of Black sea at westernmost border w Georgia Islamist militancy continues to be greatest security threat to Russia Dagestan is on Caspian, farthest East. Chechnya to the west. Trying to portray the US as weak, unreliable, and unwilling to stand up to Russia, to Central European countries. Trying to present itself as viable alternative to US global authority Hopes NSA leaks will hurt Washington's alliance system Making a large show of strength internationally to distract from domestic problems. Russian energy will suffer with new sources of LNG and shale gas Largest natural gas reserves, second largest coal, ninth largest oil Shifts back and forth w/ saudis as largest producer of oil Russia's Transneft holds a monopoly over Russia's pipeline network, however pipeline exports have been displaced somewhat by seaborne exports over the last year. Current social/political/economic situation is very similar to 1905, the precursor to revolution. Russia is struggling to prevent a major social uprising. In 1905 mixture of tensions boiled over at once. - High urbanization and population growth through rapid industrialization. New worker class, which nobles referred to as migrants since their customs were so different from urban residents - considered them foreign. Rise of education and youth bulge/student radicalization. Economic decline after Europe struggles. Minority hatred, especially against Jews, who were centered in ethnic Russian cities-were blamed for poor economy. Protests by industrial workers against aristocracy. Then students, then ethnic riots against Jews, Poles, and Lithuanians. 1905 and now, very similar. Putin supports nationalists, police have not cracked down on ethnic riots. Legislation locally to restrict migrant workers and prevent Muslims from having more than two children. Kremlin is channeling discontent against ethnic and religious issues to distract them from Kremlin policies. Kremlin is most afraid of vocal youth/students. At the same time, he can't crack down too hard on minorities-cant risk another civil war in Caucasus, needs migrants from republics as foreign policy tool,Muslim migrants fill declining Russian work force-can't completely prohibit immigration. 2011 & 2012 protests resulted in changes to voting mechanisms and party registration. Then gov cracked down on protest leaders. 20% of population was born after the fall of the Soviet Union, unaccustomed to centralized govt and society. Population of ethnic Russians will drop 10% by 2030, while Muslim minority is growing by huge margins. Since 1989, Chechnya's pop grew by 59% and Dagestan's by 69%. Hundreds of thousands of legal and illegal immigrants from Islamic satellites each year. By 2030, 15% of population will be Muslim. Talks at state levels of restricting Muslim movements. Ethnic Russians fear immigrants and Muslims are taking their jobs and spreading crime. Led to the rise of ultra-orthodox/nationalist/neo-Nazi movements, and extremist brigades "Russia for Russians" "Stop Feeding the Caucasus" "Orthodox Brigades" - patrol streets to protect Orthodox Muslims Many protests against minorities, violence. National Unity Day-nationalists are staging rallies. Russian economy stagnating, ppl are upset w/ energy being primary source of wealth and stability. Weaknesses in non-energy sectors, where most Russians' interests lie. Even high energy prices and record sales of oil and gas have left economy stagnant. President has high approval ratings, government does not-Russian system is centered on one person-when Putin is gone, there will be much confusion. Have begun training for airborne assault forces, military transport, and special operations in Arctic, with the goal of a combined arms force for the Arctic by 2020. The navy is prepared-Norther Fleet headquartered in Severomorsk (Northeast of Finland, most northwest area of Russia). The region's Kola Penninsula is the center of military activity. Potential for increased airforce at Rogachevo base on Novaya Zemlya island (worm shaped island northeast of Severomorsk. Climate change is making natural resources and transport routes more accessible. Arctic has more than 1/5 of world's undiscovered hydrocarbon resources. Northern Sea Route - from Asia to Europe, over Russia. Russia already operates the vast majority of world's icebreakers. Has $8trillion worth of energy resources in Arctic, and is well accustomed to northern conditions. Russia had used its active nuclear collaboration w Iran and the threat of supplying Iran w strategic air defenses as a lever against US. Now, US has more room to interfere w Russian domestic affairs and Russia is worried about Iranians to south. 25% of all energy to Europe comes from Russia. Increases exponentially as one moves east. Belarus and Ukraine are the two major portals to Europe. Druzhba pipeline sends oil to West Europe through Belarus and to South through Ukraine. But oil is not Russia's political tool, that is natural gas. Central Europe (with the exception of Romania which has its own reserves) depend on Russian gas at 70%. Belarus, Bulgaria, and Baltics depend on 90%. Russia offers beneficial terms to states that cooperate w it, higher prices and cutoffs for those that dont. Yamal pipeline (Coming from the Yamal Penninsula) brings gas to Poland and Germany through Belarus. Blue Stream brings gas to Turkey. Nord Strean goes directly to Germany through Baltic Sea (bypasses Belarus and Poland, decreasing their ability to pressure Russia). South Stream will link to Bulgaria, Serbia, Hungary, Austria, and through Adriatic to Italy (Leaves Ukraine out of plans). Azerbaijan's gas and oil challenge Russia's monopoly. TAP (Trans Adriatic Pipeline) winning over Nabucco was a victory, bc Russia wanted the pipeline to avoid Central Europe and Balkans bc it wants those states dependent on it and not Azerbaijan for energy. The real threat to Russian influence in Europe remains LNG terminaly. Poland, Lithuania, and Croatia are all trying to build them. Visegrad countries (Hungary, Czech, Slovakia) have been interconnecting pipelines to take advantage of these LNG terminals. Also threatened by EU's attempt to break energy monopoly through legal means (EU says one company cannot be responsible for production, distribution, and sales. Very worried about Iran-US negotiations. Persia and Russia fought large wars btw 1722-1828. In the past, Tehran condemned Moscow's restrictions on religion and alliance w/ Iraq. Russia had helped constuct Iran's nuclear power plans and sold military hardware, along w/ helping iran w. Israeli and US/British intelligence. Russia could use Iran as a useful foreign policy tool, by threatening support for Iran if US interfered in Ukraine and Georgia. Helped secure Russia's southern flank and limit Iranian-Russian competition. Russia threatened to sell missile defense systems to Iran if US built up missile defense systems in Central Europe. Worried that without Iran to tie US down in Middle East, US will support peripheral countries and support anti-Kremlin groups within Russia. Russia will no longer be able to use Iran to counter US activities and has no other tools comparable. US could support Iran's military, as before with the Shah. Iran has the potential to be regional energy competitor, and serve as land bridge to Persian Gulf for trade. Turkey is Russia's second largest energy consumer, although Ankara has been looking to reduce its dependence on Russia. Although Azerbaijan could moderately aid Turkey, only Iran has the potential to seriously compete. US investment in Tehran's energy sector could exponentially increase output. Historically, Ottomans, Persians, and Russians battled for power. In Caucusus, Iran could offer Azerbaijan alternative land route for transporting energy to Turkey, Europe, and Gulf. Iran could boost trade and energy exports to Armenia or Georgia, challenging Russian influence. And in Central Asia, where Russian-Chinese competition has been huge, Iran could become major export corridor for Turkmen gas (most of Turkmenistan's largest gas fields lie on border w Iran), as well as Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Iran could also partner w central asian states to counter radical islamists stemming out of Afghanistan. Russia supplies 60% of gas, and it will grow. Iran provides 20%. Both are historical and regional rivals, and it depends on them. Unnerving. Turkey is Russia's second-largest energy customer. Along with huge amounts of gas, also coal and oil. Blue Stream Pipeline, which runs beneath the Black Sea, and another pipeline running from Ukraine, Romania, and Bulgaria before reaching Turkey's large population centers in Istanbul. Russia expects Turkey will soon pass Germany as largest energy client. Turkey wants cheaper prices from Russia, but Russia knows it is the only reliable and cost-effective option to provide large volumes of gas. Turkey cannot function without Russian gas. Plans to build 23 nuclear power plants by 2023 - Russia jumped to be first contract, hoping to be the primary supplier of nuclear fuel (Mersin, Mediterranean coast). Russia also trying to build natural gas storage facilities in Turkey. Storage facilities are among the most strategic energy assets Russia has pursued across Europe to maintain leverage on Continent Turkey remained neutral to both Nabucco and South Stream. Original Nabucco pipeline was downsized to Nabucco West, but would have excluded Russia to carry gas from Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Iran, Iraq, and Egypt to Europe. Nabucco West would have relied on Shah Deniz gas field in Azerbaijan. While West was costly and would flow to Central Europe, Trans-Adriatic Pipeline was cheap and crossed the Adriatic to Iraly. Smaller volume and end consumers of TAP were far less threatening to Russia (Nabucco would have supplied Central Europe). No coincidence that Russia, right before selection, allowed Azerbaijan's SOCAR to win rights to Greek natural gas transit firm DEFSA by withdrawing. Growing Azerbaijani-Russian energy cooperation. The heavier Russian presence in Caucasus, the more dependent Turkey is on Russia. Russia wants to be the middle man for transport of Central Asian energy to Europe - will pressure Turkmenistan to forgo pipeline through Caspian and Turkey to Europe. Met with Pope Francis in the Vatican. Relations with the Holy See were restored in 2009. Eastern Orthodox Church and Roman Catholic Church split in 1054 when patriarch of Constantinople was excommunicated from Catholic Church. Called the Great Schism. Eastern Orthodox Church has regional jurisdiction, divided into Russian, Romanian, Bulgarian, Greek, and Serbian. Each has its own patriarch. In the 15th century Russia dubbed itself the 'Third Rome' because only its church was not occupied by the Ottomans. Vatican condemned communism and the Soviet Union, and appointed Polish anti-Communist Pope, John Paul II as pope. He was credited with helping bring down the Soviet Union. Orthodox Church accuses Catholic Church's programs financing orphanages and childrens' programs as infiltration. In 97 Boris Yeltsin defined religion as Orthodox, Buddhism, Judaism, or Islam. All other religions were heavily restricted. Putin, a devout Orthodox, uses church to spread pro-Kremlin messages. Got the Pope to endorse Russia's negotiations in Syria. After negotiations with Iran, Russia says that the European Phased Adaptive Approach, NATO's ballistic missile defense plans placing interceptor bases in Romania and Poland capable of shooting down various ballistic missiles, is no longer necessary because they were designed to counter missile threats from Iran. Would come online ins Romania in 2015 and Poland in 2018. Russia fears that technology could someday challenge Russia's intercontinental missile arsenal, which it relies upon as a strategic deterent. Would place US military personnel in the most strategic borderlands. Russia has been very cooperative in US policy in Middle East, allowing the US to avoid engaging in another unpopular military intervention with Syria, thus opening the door for negotiations with Iran. Moscow saw that it could do little to derail the normalization of relations, and decided to cooperate in order to gain leverage in deals with the US. Wants US to phase out missile defense plans. Meanwhile, Ukraine, Poland, and Romania are watching to see if the US is dependable for support. Russian protests in 11-12 did not amount to much because they enveloped the Communist Party, the nationalists, xenophobes, liberal democrats, and more - each trying to be the face of the movement. Kremlin allowed their differences to divide them, and protests died out FSB is the primary security agency in Russia - took over for the KGB. The chief counterterrorism agency. Winter Olympics will take place in February. Strongest threat to terrorism is from attacks outside Sochi, in the Northern Caucusus and major cities such as Moscow and St. Petersburg. Russia is intensifying its focus on East Asia, due to challenges in exporting energy to Europe. Western Europe is diversifying its energy sources as new supplies come online in order to reduce dependence on Russian supplies. Trying to shift exports eastward, first with oil, then with gas. Main focus in Asia has traditionally been China, Japan, and South Korea, but peripheral countries offer an opportunity to counter China's moves in Central Asia. Gorbachev had oriented his policy towards Asia in response to a strengthening Japan. Russia and China defined their borders in 91. Russia finally got its warm water port of Vladivostok, on the southern peninsula of Primorsky Krai, on the Sea of Japan. Has six LNG projects being developed, but will face much competition from Australia. Japan and China are the two most lucrative markets for Russian energy exports, but they are also major powers that threaten Russia's interests in the Pacific and Central Asia. Russia has long been wary of the two countries' intentions in its periphery, so Moscow has stalled on developing major ties with the two countries. Kalingrad - Btw Poland and Lithuania on the Baltic Sea. Until the end of World War II, the area formed the northern part of the former East Prussia. The city was largely destroyed during World War II; its ruins were captured by the Red Army in 1945 and its German population fled or was removed by force. It was named Kaliningrad in 1946 in honor of Mikhail Kalinin. Mikhail Ivanovich Kalinin was a Bolshevik revolutionary and the nominal head of state of Russia and later of the Soviet Union, from 1919 to 1946. Kaliningrad is the only Russian Baltic Sea port that is ice-free all year round and hence plays an important role in maintenance of the Baltic Fleet. All military and civilian land links between the region and the rest of Russia have to pass through members of NATO and the EU. Putin has placed Iskander-M missile systems in Kalingrad Oblast. Has caused alarm in Poland and Lithuania. First threatened ballistic missiles to Kalingrad as a response to NATO's BMD program - the EPAA - European Phased Adaptive Approach. Poland confirmed being a missile defense basing site. In June, Russia deployed Iskander missiles to a base in western Armenia, 7 miles away from Turkey. The deployment of these missiles is a reminder to former Warsaw countries that Moscow retains the capabilities to strike back against developments it opposes. The BMD layers to identify, track, and engage targets. Ballistic missiles fly fast and high on fixed trajectories. BMD must be placed along the missiles predicted flight path. EPAA is based upon US Aegis architecture, which includes radar installations for detections, X-band radar for targeting and tracking, and SM-3 missile batteries for interception. Washington canceled the fourth phase of the project to encourage negotiations with Moscow. Primary goal of the project was to defend the US and Europe against ballistic missiles from Iran. On the surface, Russia's opposition does not seem to make sense. THe trajectory of Russian missiles is aimed far farther to the north, an arc closer to Iceland and completely out of the range of current European-based systems. Russia can also fire enough missiles to overwhelm the capacity of the defense shield. In fact, Russia initially cooperated with the defense shield, but the US and NATO disapproved of their joining in. But Washington's presence through EPAA secures a US footprint in Central and Eastern Europe. One of the strengths of Aegis is that it has a huge capacity for evolution - could gain greater area coverage and capability. Expanding Iskander systems has become a core component of Russia's land forces. Russia's conventional military is decaying and will never return to its Cold War levels. In place of overwhelming manpower and material, the Russians will rely on their nuclear capability as a strategic deterrent. Worried that BMD shield expansion could nullify Russia's strategic nuclear capability if left unchecked. Largest NATO joint exercise in two decades, Steadfast Jazz, took place, although US contribution was smaller than expected, drawing criticism. 1969 - Zhenbao Island incident. Border clash. A group of People's Liberation Army (PLA) troops ambushed Soviet border guards on Zhenbao Island. At the same time, border war in Xianjiang China. Heightened tensions raised the prospect of a nuclear war between China and the Soviet Union Russia is committed to maintaining a strong naval presence in the Black Sea. Russia keeps a military base in Gyumri, Armenia, close to the Turkish border, which it has extended to 2044 and added Iskander-M ballistic missiles. Technically part of the CIS joint air defense system, but can be seen as a show of strength to Azerbaijan and Turkey. Russia seeks to prolong the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Turkish assertiveness will lead it to increase influence in Georgia and Azerbaijan and modernize the Black Sea Fleet. But Russia's leverage over Turkey will decrease over time. Eventually will be challenged by Iran in the Caucusus. Putin released jailed oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky. Symbolizes that the era of oligarch rule is over. He had been one of Russia's wealthiest men in mid 90's and early 2000's. In the 90's three political factions emerged within Russia: Boris Yeltsin's Family, the security services' siloviki, and the oligarchs. Each was scrambling for wealth, power, and assets in the chaos of the early 90's. Oligarchs built empires out of the Soviet ruins. Khodorkovsky became deputy energy minister, started the first private bank, and bought shares of oil firm Yukos at low prices. Put Russia's most prized asset in the hands of an aligarch. Then Putin consolidated the siloviki and liberal reformists under his camp. Khodorkovsky funded anti-Putin political movements and called his men criminals. Putin decided to take down the one oligarch seen as too large to fall. Allowed Russia to take over his energy assets. State expanded to take over big business in Russia. Showed the oligarchs that Russian state was back in control. The Russian oligarchs are at an end - the few survivors know that their empires exist only with Putin's permission. In 2009, Putin ordered the remaining oligarchs to dump large parts of their personal fortunes into the Russian economy during the global recession. The remainder of big business in Russia is either state-controlled, or controlled by a Putin siloviki loyalist. The last few oligarchs are mostly involved in the metals sector. Foreign investors are wary of doing business in Russia bc of the Kremlin's targetting of businessmen. By releasing Khodorkovsky, Putin is signalling that those times are over. Will be followed with a general amnesty to political prisoners soon. The oligarch class is essentially of no concern to the state anymore. Volgograd (Stalingrad) has seen multiple terrorist incidents in the run up to Sochi. First was in October, when female suicide bomber blew up a bus, killing six. Then on Dec. 29, female suicide bomber (female bombers are a particular trait of Northern Caucasus groups - called Black Widows because their husband or brother was killed in jihadist operations) blew up a train station, killing 18 people. Then a day later, a Dagestani bombing on the city's trolley bus, killing 15 - the suspect was a Russian convert to Islam that moved to Dagestan to fight with jihadists there. Is an appealing target bc it is the largest ethnically Slavic city close to the Caucasus. Is an important transportation hub for connections traveling from northern to southern Russia. Will be a common transit point for people coming from Moscow or Kazan (capital of Tatarstan). Leader of Caucasus Emirate, Doku Umarov called on insurgents from Caucasus, Tatarstan, and Bashkortostan (North of Kazakhstan) to carry out attacks. Soft targets along the routes to Sochi will be likely targets for attacks. Did not want to attack Moscow bc Muslim communities in the capital are already on the verge of ethnic purges, and dont want to be cast as militant. Northern Caucasus - The most unstable part of Russia. Mix of clans and ethnic groups on the northern slopes of the great mountain range. Russians fought two wars with Chechens - First in Yeltsin's early 90's was military stalemate and a political defeat for Russia since Chechnya de facto gained independence. The second in the late 90's, was largely a victory because of Yeltsin's PM Putin, who rather than employ brute force as happened before, played the nationalist factions against the traditionalist, jihadist ones. With the help of the nationalist Kadyrov clan, Chechnya was gradually brought back within Russia's orbit. 1st Chechen War (94-96) - By early 94, Chechnya remained the only federal subject that did not sign the Federation Treaty, which delegated the level of local and central power. Neither Yeltsin nor the Chechen government attempted any serious negotiations and the situation deteriorated into a full-scale conflict. Former Soviet Air Force General, Djokhar Dudaev, became president of Chechnya, split with neighboring Ingushetia, and declared Chechen independence. Over the next three years, tensions with Moscow steadily grew as Dudaev took steps to build a national army in a bid to prop up Chechnya's independence. President Yeltsin hesitated on how to bring the rebellious general back into the fold. Moscow clandestinely supplied separatist forces with financial support, military equipment and mercenaries. Finally, after several attempts to forcibly depose Dudaev through proxies and a failed tank assault on Grozny, Moscow issued an ultimatum on 29 November 1994. Russia's National Security Council told Chechnya's government to disarm and submit to Moscow, or face retaliation. Initial attempts to dislodge govt failed miserably - opposition forces and Russian army was embarrassed. Boris Yeltsin's cabinet's expectations of a quick surgical strike, quickly followed by Chechen capitulation and regime change, were misguided. Russia found itself in a quagmire almost instantly. The morale of the Russian troops, poorly prepared and not understanding why and even where they were being sent, was low from the beginning. After the initial campaign of 1994-1995, culminating in the devastating Battle of Grozny, Russian federal forces attempted to seize control of the mountainous area of Chechnya but were set back by Chechen guerrilla warfare and raids on the flatlands despite Russia's overwhelming manpower, weaponry, and air support. Overwhelmed by Russian firepower, Dudaev's troops abandoned the Chechen capital after the initial days of fierce street fighting. They withdrew to the mountainous south, whence Russian forces have to this day been unable to dislodge them. Dudaev was assassinated in a Russian missile attack in April 1996. Yet the Chechen separatist forces recaptured Grozny and forced Moscow to negotiate a peace agreement.The resulting widespread demoralization of federal forces and the almost universal opposition of the Russian public to the conflict led Boris Yeltsin's government to declare a ceasefire with the Chechens in 1996 and sign a peace treaty a year later. 7,000 Russian casualties. Second Chechen War - 99-2000 was the major fighting. 2000-09 was the insurgency phase, after which Russian troops left. From 09 - present, local security has fallen to police. In response to the Invasion of Dagestan by the Islamic International Peacekeeping Brigade (IIPB), with the hopes of creating an Islamic state, and the recent wave of Russian apartment building bombings also attributed to the same terrorist organization, became the key igniting spark for a second Russian-Chechen war. The campaign ended the de facto independence of Chechen Republic of Ichkeria and restored Russian federal control over the territory. During the initial campaign, Russian military and pro-Russian Chechen paramilitary forces faced Chechen separatists in open combat, and seized the Chechen capital Grozny after a winter siege. Some Chechen separatists carried out attacks against civilians in Russia. The once-leveled city of Grozny has recently undergone massive reconstruction efforts and much of the city and surrounding areas have been rebuilt at a quick pace. Pro-Russian Kadyrov family took over control of Chechnya Ingushetia - It was established on June 4, 1992 after the Chechen-Ingush Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic was split in two. Ingushetia is one of Russia's poorest and most restive regions. The ongoing military conflict in neighboring Chechnya has occasionally spilled into Ingushetia, and the republic has been destabilized by corruption, a number of high-profile crimes (including kidnapping and murder of civilians by government security forces, anti-government protests, attacks on soldiers and officers, Russian military excesses and a deteriorating human rights situation. The War in Ingushetia began in 2007 as an escalation of an insurgency in Ingushetia connected to the separatist conflict in Chechnya. Dagestan - Its capital and largest city is Makhachkala, located at the center of Dagestan on the Caspian Sea. Dagestan is ethnically very diverse (it is Russia's most heterogeneous republic, where no ethnic group forms a majority) with several dozen ethnic groups and subgroups inhabiting the republic, most of which speak Caucasian and Turkic languages. Largest among these ethnic groups are the Avar, Azerbaijani, Chechen, Dargin, Kumyk, Lezgian, and Laks. Shariat Jamaat is strongest Islamist group. Much of the tension is rooted in an internal Islamic conflict between traditional Sufi groups advocating secular government and more recently introduced Salafist teachers preaching the implementation of Sharia law in Dagestan Caucasus Emirate - Wants to divide the entire northern Caucasus region into several states. Designated as a terrorist organization by US and Russia. Reportedly tied to Al Qaeda. Beslan, North Ossetia - Childrens' school taken hostage by Chechen rebels in 2004. Death of almost 400 people, mostly children. Russia realizes that soon it will have the US's undivided attention, as the country finishes up negotiations with Iran. So Putin will rush this year to resolve as many priority issues as possible. Economic malaise will lead to social unrest at home, leaving Putin himself to control the discontent. This will make the system dependent on one individual, weakening it in the long term. Russian energy sector will evolve from monolithic state sector focused primarily on Europe to one where companies like Novatek can challenge Gazprom's dominance and sell to a variety of clients. Will try to bolster non-energy sectors like mining, metals, construction, food, and auto industries. Will loosen restrictive investment policies. Abroad, Russia will try to use its relationship with Germany to create a coalition of NATO members willing to delay US BMD plans or renegotiate the system to allow Russia into the defense system. Washington will not likely budge. Two major energy issues for 2014 - Antitrust probe into Gazprom's energy monopoly, and the legality of Gazprom's South Stream project. Will rely on relations with Germany to reach accomodation and concessions. Oil deals with Asia recently have aided a struggling oil industry in Russia, but 2014 will see major construction of natural gas infrastructure to connect Moscow with Asia further. Russo-Japanese relations will be important in 2014, as both countries look to finalize a peace treaty and ease territorial tensions. Will strike deals in security cooperation, energy exports, and Japanese investment in Russia. Russian Civil War - 1918-21. Groups formed to oppose Lenin's Bolsheviks. These groups included monarchists, militarists, and, for a short time, foreign nations. Collectively, they were known as the Whites while the Bolsheviks were known as the Reds. The Whites were bitter at how severe German demands were at the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk, and how easily Lenin accepted them. For their own benefit, the western powers wanted to re-establish an Eastern Front so that the German Army would be split once again, thus relieving the problems being experienced on the Western Front. In the south of Russia, the resistance to the Bolsheviks was led by Kornilov, and imperialist General who wanted to rule by military dictatorship. Socialist Revolutionaries (were the most popular party up until Bolsheviks, used terrorism tactics) under the leadership of Chernov grouped in the lower Volga and Siberia to oppose Lenin. A powerful Czech prisoner army group also caused problems in central Russia. These Czechs had been promised free travel to the western front to fight the Germans, but once they surrendered their weapons to the Communists, Trotsky shot them - Stalin heavily criticized this move. Trotsky commanded the Communist military. Lenin then ordered the execution of the royal family. To add to Trotsky's problems, the British seized Murmansk and Archangel in the north and set up governments led by Socialist Revolutionaries. Admiral Kolchak, the former Lord High Admiral, also set up the Directory, his own government that was accepted by the Western powers. In early 1919, Kolchak and the forces he had grouped around him, went on the offensive. Kolchak could have marched on Moscow from the Volga but for some reason he did not. The British were advancing from Archangel in the north. A two-pronged attack against the Bolsheviks may well have been successful - but it never materialised. The British were to shortly pull out of Russia - and the Whites probably lost their best opportunity to defeat the Bolsheviks. Why did the Reds win? Trotsky's beliefs were simple. If a Red commander was successful in combat, they were promoted. If a commander failed and survived, he paid the price. Trotsky was willing to use ex-tsarist officers as he knew that they had the military experience the Red Army lacked. Ironically, though this was a successful policy, it was later held against him in his battle with Stalin for control of the party after Lenin's death. Visited the front in his legendary armored train. Trotsky was also not fighting a cohesive unit. The Whites were made up of many groups - groups that hated each other as much as they hated the Reds. With no cohesiveness to them, the Whites were on the whole a hopelessly uncoordinated group that fell out with each other. Though on a map of Russia, it looked as if the Reds were being attacked from all sides, such attacks were disunited and dislocated. The fact that so many groups existed, meant that no one person could be appointed to act as their sole commander. With no unified leadership, the Whites were much weakened. The peasants in White territory supported the Communists. And when WW1 ended in 1918, the Western powers did not want to be seen supporting the Whites, who were brutal and repressive. Kolchak was eventually defeated and captured. After success against forces in Russia itself, Trotsky then faced a challenge from Poland. Granted her independence in 1918, Poland invaded the Ukraine in 1920. However, the Polish army was not able to defeat Trotsky's Red Army and it broke through the Poles lines and advanced on Warsaw. Treaty of Riga was created. As a result of this treaty, about 10 million Ukranians and White Russians were put under Polish rule. The Treaty of Riga brought to an end the Russian Civil War. Within Russia, the Communist government under Lenin was now secure. Mensheviks were a political party opposed to Bolsheviks under Lenin. The Mensheviks subscribed to an Orthodox Marxist view of social and economic development, believing that socialism could not be achieved in Russia due to its backwards economic conditions, and that Russia would first have to experience a bourgeoisie revolution and go through a capitalist stage of development before socialism was technically possible and before the working class was able to develop the necessary consciousness for a socialist revolution. The Mensheviks were thus opposed to the Bolshevik idea of a Vanguard party and pursuit of socialist revolution in Russia. Commonly falls back on issuing generous loans to make gains in the diplomatic world. Including the $15 billion loan to Ukraine. Since the 2009 financial crisis, the Kremlin has allowed Russia's regions to take the brunt of the country's economic decline in order to keep the federal government seemingly healthy. But now most of Russia's regional governments' debt is so high, it is becoming dangerous for the federal government and big banks and could soon become unmanageable. There are 83 regions in Russia. Historically, the Kremlin has given regional leaders (mayors, governors, heads or republic presidents) the power to run their own regions and ensure loyalty to the Kremlin and stability for the country. Too large of a country to directly control. During the financial crisis of 98, many of the regional states defied the fed gov to ensure their own survival. The states do not have many debt reduction tools. 63 of 83 regions are at risk of needing a federal bailout or defaulting on their debt. Investment in the regions is becoming less attractive. Industry provides nearly the entire economy in some regions, while metal production is declining due to lack of demand and low prices. The federal govt is not supporting the regional govts with funds. Ruble Crisis of 1998 - an example of how regional govts have resisted federal authority. In 1997, as the Asian financial crisis was sweeping the world, Russia's industrial and service sectors had collapsed, and capital was leaving the country rapidly. By 1998, interest rates in Russia skyrocketed by 150 percent. And energy prices were very low. In August 1998, the Kremlin could no longer pay to maintain the peg and enacted a mass devaluation. Russian stocks, bonds and currency markets all collapsed as the stock market fell 75 percent. The Russian government defaulted on $40 billion of domestic debt. The Russian people saw all their ruble savings become worthless. Inflation soared 84 percent while the cost of imports rose more than 400 percent and food prices increased more than 100 percent. The majority of businesses stopped paying their workers. The crisis pushed about 43 million people or 30 percent of the Russian population below the poverty line. Industrial regions were hardest hit. There were massive food shortages. Mass protests began to fill the streets. In most of the regions, leaders and governments broke with the Kremlin's plan to counter the crisis and started to look out for their own regions' interests. They banned the export of food and hoarded goods. Began to take control of state institutions and refused to pay tax to the gov. By the end of 1998, the federal government had almost entirely lost the ability to control how the regions were operating. The Justice Ministry reported that nearly two-thirds of the regions had enacted unconstitutional measures, procedures and laws. This lawlessness was one of the factors that contributed to Putin's rise. In July 1998, Russian President Boris Yeltsin named Putin as head of the Federal Security Services (the successor to the KGB), and in October he was earmarked for the Security Council. One of the tasks given to Putin at the time was to rein in the rebellious territories. Putin's plan was simple: Purge the leaders who did not comply, and if they refused to go, then deploy the military. Military units all over Russia were put on stand-by, signaling to the regional leaders that this new power in the Kremlin was not to be defied. By the start of 1999, 46 of the then-89 regions signed power-sharing agreements with the Kremlin to recentralize their legal system under federal control. The recentralization of the Russian regions under Kremlin control continued to intensify when Putin became president. He abolished direct regional elections, his political party dominating each region. Putin's recentralization -- not just of the regions but of the entire country economically, politically and in the realm of security -- combined with a global economic recovery brought a decade of relative strength and stability to Russia. Today, the govt is strong and has huge cash reserves to fall back on, and most regional govts are loyal to Putin. But still concerned, considering the European financial crisis and China's slowdown. But the Kremlin rarely touches reserve $, even in crises. Moscow could ease the tax burdens on the state. Could expand large-scale industrial production - factories and plants could spur the economy, diversifying the economy away from energy. Will invite FDI. Trying to set up a long term plan for economic stability. But will require more funds from regional govts. In the end, Putin has the means to reel the states back into control if they do default and rebel -- the rainy day funds and the military. Russian School Abroad - meant to open institutions for Russian language, customs, and culture in 50 countries. Meant to make it easier for migrant workers to enter Russia and to help investors conduct business there. Pushkin Institute, under the jurisdiction of the Foreign Ministry, will oversee everything. Meant to reverse the decline in Russian language proficiency. Similar to how the Soviets pursued language and cultural awareness in near abroad, as well as in client states globally - meant to form a common identity among the union. Russian is the most common language in eastern portions of Ukraine. Ukraine is deeply split by language and it is a controversial issue. Moldova's Transdniestria region also speaks Russian. Baltic states will push back hardest. Each have 25% Russian population, except for lithaunia, which has 10%. Russia has tried to use these minorities to influence internal politics. Latvia strongly came out against the move, and refused access for the school. When the Russians hosted the games in 1980, the US staged a boycott with other nations, due to cold war tensions and the Russian intervention in Afghanistan. Greatly embarrassed the Soviets. Russian Resurgence - Has come a long way since the chaotic and fractured days following the Soviet Union. The great post-Communist economic and political experiment failed: Could either return power to the perestroikas - open to western investment but only under carefully controlled terms- or surrender to the reactionaries, who oppose Russia's kleptocrats. In 2003, Putin and his KGB alumni took over and stabilized the country. He decentralized authority in one pro-Russian party, rallied nationalism, and wooed the youth under the guise of the Nashi youth movement. Recentralized the majority of economic institutions, by creating state champions for energy, banking, and others, purging oligarchs who resisted. Launched second Chechen war to get militancy under control and end secessionist movements. By 2006, began using energy as a tool in its periphery - relying on selective pricing, cutoffs and negotiations to extend Moscow's influence. In 2008 it flexed its muscles by invading Georgia in order to show soviet states seeking alliance with NATO that the west would not back up its security agreements. In 2010, it launched the Customs Union alliance system, which will be transformed into the Eurasian Union by 2015. In 2013 gave the peripheral countries the choice btw east and west - EU or Customs Union. A Chronology of Militancy in the Russian Caucasus - Though the Caucasus region's rebels pose an obvious threat, the rebels themselves and the threats they pose differ from those faced by Russia in the past. 1997 - Two years after first Chechen war ended, another was in the making. The First Chechen War had started off as a response to the fall of the Soviet Union and Chechen nationalists looking for independence and greater control in the Caucasus. But at the end of the war, there was an infusion of pan-Islamist militants, under the guise of a series of groups under Shamil Basayev. Carried out massive ideological terrorist attacks on a scale never seen in Russia. Second Chechen war began in 1999. In 2002, nearly 50 Chechen militants took 900 people in a Moscow theater hostage. In 2004, two female suicide bombers simultaneously took down two airplanes flying out of Moscow. Also in 2004, more than 30 Chechens took a school containing more than 1,000 people, mostly children, hostage in Beslan, killing more than 300. 2004 - Beslan was the turning point for Putin. The first step was to separate the types of militants in the Caucasus between nationalists, and those more ideologically Islamist, like Basayev's group. The Kremlin co-opted the nationalists, transforming them into regional leaders. This led to the rise of current head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, and his now 40,000-member pro-Kremlin Chechen brigades. Then he killed Basayev in '06, using aggressive tactics to wipe out the Islamists. Second war ended in '09. Militant groups today are very different than those seen a decade ago. The organization of the militant groups, such as those under the umbrella of the Caucasus Emirate, is much looser and has far fewer active militants. The current militant groups are highly restricted by pressure from the Russian security apparatus, the domestic Caucasus forces that have been co-opted by the Kremlin and by a shrinking supply of resources and militants after more than two decades of fighting. At present, militancy is highly constrained, both in terms of reach and capability. Due to the erosion of these groups' abilities, all the recent attacks since the end of the war have been small in size, typically carried out by one or two bombers, and against soft targets like buses or an airport entrance. They do not appear capable of pulling off large-scale attacks or attacks against more difficult targets, as seen in the past. In late 2011 to early 2012, as anti-Kremlin protests erupted in Russia, President Vladimir Putin adopted a new strategy for confronting the opposition movement. Instead of sponsoring an official crackdown that would have elicited a strongly negative reaction from the international community and potential investors, the Kremlin recruited local thugs -- reportedly workers from a Ural tank factory -- to disperse protesters in Moscow and surrounding regions. Using unofficial grassroots groups to confront opposition movements allowed Putin to evade responsibility for the thugs' actions. He is endorsing a similar strategy for Yanukovich.

Bulgaria

Capital-Sofia PM Plamen Oresharski Ruling center-left Socialist Party Still relies heavily on Soviet defense tech Three major crises this year - 1. Social crisis-rising utility prices (electricity and heating). Utility prices have historically been a sensitive issue bc Bulgaria is the poorest EU member and has lowest wages. Unemployment is higher than the EU average of 11% and nearly half of all citizens are at risk of falling into poverty. 2. Utility protests led to political crisis over corruption and lack of transparency. Forced PM Boyko Borisov (Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria) to call for early elections, where he lost to Oresharski.Parliament is extremely fragile, as Socialist Party is in a minority coalition gov. with the ethnic Turkish MRF party and depends on unofficial support from the nationalist Ataka party to survive. Because govt is under almost a constant threat of collapse, it is under great pressure by Ataka to push for nationalist, anti migrant reforms 3.Violence in North Africa and Middle East led to surge in illegal immigrants and asylum seekers. Very attractive entry point for immigrants seeking access to EU. Illegal organizations are smuggling people from Turkey and Western Balkans into Bulgaria As a result of these problems, Sofia has been looking for increased funding from the EU to deal w/ refugees and for a review of the EU's asylum program. Ataka and other nationalist parties have held rallies against immigrants. Nationalist coalitions have avoided grouping themselves with Ataka bc it is too controversial. Provided critical support for fragile coalition. With Romania, it is trying to be part of the Schengen zone, eliminating border controls. West does not trust their own border patrol to prevent flow of illegal immigrants. Western Europe also fears huge influx of Bulgarian/Romanian workers. France and GB have vigorously opposed Government relies on cheap energy prices to attract voters Receiving masses of Syrian refugees. Countries on the periphery are looking for more funding from EU to cope with refugees. Long term home is for reforms of the bloc's refugee program, which says the country a refugee first enters will be responsible for the refugee. Northern and western countries are resisting it's accession to the Schengen Zone One of the most cooperative relationships with Russia. Is the most dependent on Russian natural gas (95%) and least integrated with EU. Highest level of trade with Russia and lowest with EU in all of Central Europe. South Stream will landfall in Bulgaria. However, on security matters, is an ally of West, and is hosting NATO/US lilypad bases, and potential ballistic missile defense shield. The government of the Kingdom of Bulgaria under Prime Minister Georgi Kyoseivanov declared a position of neutrality upon the outbreak of World War II. Bulgaria was determined to observe it until the end of the war; but it hoped for bloodless territorial gains, aiming to recover the territories lost in the Second Balkan War and World War I, as well as gain other lands with a significant Bulgarian population occupied by neighboring countries. After the failure of the Italian invasion of Greece, Nazi Germany demanded that Bulgaria join the Tripartite pact and permit German forces to pass through Bulgaria to attack Greece in order to help Italy. While the Bulgarian government was reluctant to get involved in the war, the threat of a German invasion, as well as the promise of Greek territories, led Bulgaria to sign the Tripartite Pact on 1 March 1941 and join the Axis bloc. April 1941, despite having officially joined the Axis Powers, the Bulgarian government didn't participate in the invasion of Yugoslavia and the invasion of Greece. Bulgaria did not join the German invasion of the Soviet Union that began on 22 June 1941 nor did it declare war on the Soviet Union The German invasion of the Soviet Union caused a significant wave of protests, which led to the activation of a mass guerrilla movement headed by the underground Bulgarian Communist Party. A resistance movement called Fatherland Front was set up in August 1942 by the Communist Party, the Zveno movement and a number of other parties to oppose the then pro-Nazi government, after a number of Allied victories indicated that the Axis might lose the War. Partisan detachments were particularly active in the mountain areas of western and southern Bulgaria. For Russia, the South Stream pipeline remains at the center of a long-term strategy for ensuring that natural gas diversification, in the form of shale gas exploration and new supplies from Azerbaijan and the Middle East, do not dramatically reduce Russia's market share in Europe. Gazprom will provide its Bulgarian partner, state-owned energy company Bulgarian Energy Holding, with a loan of 620 million euros ($843 million) for a 22-year term to help cover the costs of construction.

Albania

Capital-Tirana PM Edi Rama - Socialist Party Opposition-Democratic Party (eight year rule under Sali Berisha) Unlikely to join EU this decade Joined NATO in 2009 Mountainous territory - divided by clans and languages Divided between Tosk-speaking south and Gheg-speaking north --Communism had suppressed these Short-lived armed rebellion led UN to intervene and restore order in 97 Proliferation of armed criminal gangs-strong ties to Italian Mafia Large emigration to Greece and Italy (strong diplomatic ties) Large-scale corruption and lack of legal transparency One of most important hubs of illegal immigration Political violence common-losing party usually contests elections Italian invasion of Albania - 39. Albania was rapidly overrun, its ruler, King Zog I, forced into exile. Italian naval strategists eyed the port of Vlorë and the island of Sazan at the entrance to the Bay of Vlorë, as it would give Italy control of the entrance to the Adriatic Sea. In addition, Albania could provide Italy with a beachhead in the Balkans. Italy began penetration of Albania's economy in 1925, when Albania agreed to allow Italy to exploit its mineral resources. The two entered into a defensive alliance. The Albanian government and economy were subsidised by Italian loans, the Albanian army was trained by Italian military instructors, and Italian colonial settlement was encouraged. Despite strong Italian influence, King Zog I refused to completely give in to Italian pressure. In 1931 he openly stood up to the Italians, refusing to renew the 1926 Treaty of Tirana. As Nazi Germany annexed Austria and moved against Czechoslovakia, Italy saw itself becoming the lesser member of the Pact of Steel. Limited violence in invasion, focusing on militia and partisans. Albania followed Italy into war with Britain and France on June 10, 1940. Albania served as the base for the Italian invasion of Greece in October 1940, and Albanian troops participated in the Greek campaign, but they massively deserted the front line. When Italy left the Axis in September 1943, German troops immediately occupied Albania after a short campaign, with relatively strong resistance. After the Germans left due to the rapid advance of Albanian Communist forces, the Albanian Partisans crushed nationalist resistance and the leader of the Albanian Communist Party, Enver Hoxha, became the leader of the country. Before World War I Italy and Austria-Hungary had been instrumental in the creation of an independent Albanian state. At the outbreak of war, Italy had seized the chance to occupy the southern half of Albania, to avoid it being captured by the Austro-Hungarians. That success did not last long as Albanian resistance during the subsequent Vlora War and post-war domestic problems forced Italy to pull out in 1920. The desire to compensate for this embarrassing failure would be one of Mussolini's major motives in invading Albania. Vlora Wars - a series of battles between an Italian forces garrisoned throughout Vlorë region and Albanian patriots divided in small groups of fighters. The war lasted three months and had great impact in the struggle of Albania for the safeguard of its territories at a time when Albanian borders and future were discussed in the Paris Peace Conference. The Vlora War is seen as a turning point in the establishment of the Albanian independence Enver Hoxha (44-85) Communist leader. The 40-year period of Hoxha's rule was politically characterized by the elimination of the opposition, prolific use of the death penalty or long prison terms of his political opponents and evictions from homes where their families lived and their internment in remote villages that were strictly controlled by police and the secret police (Sigurimi). His rule was also characterized by Stalinist methods to destroy his associates who threatened his own power. Economically, during his period, Albania became industrialised and saw rapid economic growth, as well as unprecedented progress in the areas of education and health. He focused on rebuilding the country which was left in ruins after World War II, building Albania's first railway line, eliminating adult illiteracy and leading Albania towards becoming agriculturally self-sufficient

Bangladesh

Dhaka 155 million Formerly known as east pakistan PM Sheikh Hasina (96-01, 09-present). Leads Awami League. Eldest of five children of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the founding father and first President of Bangladesh Bangladesh Liberation War - 1971. East Pakistan and India against West Pakistan. The Pakistan Army launched a military operation called Operation Searchlight against Bengali civilians, students, intelligentsia and armed personnel, who were demanding that the Pakistani military junta accept the results of the 1970 first democratic elections of Pakistan, which were won by an eastern party, or to allow separation between East and West Pakistan. Pakistani army engaged in the systematic genocide and atrocities of Bengali civilians, particularly nationalists, intellectuals, youth and religious minorities. Neighbouring India provided economic, military and diplomatic support to Bengali nationalists, and the Bangladesh government-in-exile was set up in Calcutta. India entered the war on 3 December 1971, after Pakistan launched pre-emptive air strikes on northern India. Overwhelmed by two war fronts, Pakistani defences soon collapsed. On 16 December, the Allied Forces of Bangladesh and India defeated Pakistan in the east. Jamaat-e-Islam fought on Pakistan's side. Worlds second-largest textile exporter - challenged by textile labourer strikes over working conditions - second to China - largely due to the existence of poor economic and infrastructure development, allowing labor costs to stay low. 75% of all its exports are textiles - primary source of foreign currency inflows Ruling Awami League (leftist), led by Sheikh Hasina - traditionally is the ally of organized labor - relies upon labor bosses and factory workers. But BNP is attracting smaller labor groups unhappy w Awami's patronage system. Elections have always been overseen by a military-backed interim government. Awami League outlawed caretaker governments after its landslide victory in 2011. BNP said elections without caretaker would not be fair. Its ally Jamaat-e-Islami (Islamist) have demonstrated and encouraged labor protests. Wants to force enough unrest to make the military intervene. Opposition Center-right Bangladesh Nationalist Party - center-right, supported by Islamists. BNP led by Ziaur Rahman and Begum Khaleda Zia. Zia has been locked up in her house since Dec 29th. Zia has long relied on the organizational prowess of Jamaat-e-Islami to reign in support from the more conservative segments of society. Khaleda Zia (BNP) was the Prime Minister of Bangladesh from 1991 to 1996 and again from 2001 to 2006. When she took office in 1991, she was the first woman in the country's history and second in the Muslim world (after Benazir Bhutto of Pakistan in 1988-1990) to head a democratic government as prime minister. BNP was founded by her late husband President Ziaur Rahman in late 1970s. Zia was the first PM after the fall of 90's dictatorship. Ziaur Rahman - Husband of Zia and founder of BNP. Commanded portion of army during liberation war. President from 77-81. Was asssasinated in 81. Killed by army officers - Zia was criticized for ruthless treatment of his army opposition. Marshy, inundated geography has made infrastructure development difficult, leaving population dependent on a few key highways, rail lines, and ports. These bottlenecks make protests more dangerous-cause huge disruptions Jamaat-e-Islam - Largest Islamist party in Bangladesh. Jamaat stood against the independence of Bangladesh and opposed the break-up of Pakistan. It collaborated with the Pakistani Army in its operations against Bengali nationalists, intellectuals and minority Hindus. Many of its leaders and activists participated in paramilitary forces that were implicated in war crimes. Was banned from the country, and sought exile in Pakistan. Wants to create emirate with close ties to Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. Has attacked Hindhus and Buddhists. Courts have begun targeting Jamaat for war crimes. Only 47% have access to electricity - rest rely on biomass Producing modest natural gas - all consumed domestically -28th in world Bangladesh, Oil, Gas, and Mineral Corporation (Petrobangla) Ganges and Brahmaputra empty into Bay of Bengal Sheikh Mujibur Rahman - Founding father of Bangladesh. Headed Awami League. An advocate of socialism, he became popular for his opposition to the ethnic and institutional discrimination against Bengalis, who comprised the majority of Pakistan's population. Despite leading his party to a major victory in the 1970 elections, Mujib was not invited to form the government. On March 26, 1971, he was arrested by the Pakistan Army in the early hours of Operation Searchlight. After Liberation War and Independence, he established a one-party state. Seven months later, Mujib was assassinated by a group of junior army officers on August 15, 1975, along with most of his family. After the coup, a military government was established Jan 5th élections - Awami League won, despite BNP's boycott, low violence, and low turnout. Awami League, won 232 of the 300 seats in Bangladesh's new Parliament. Opposition attempted to derail the elections through labor strikes, protests, street clashes, and blockades of domestic transport infrastructure for nearly a year. State of near constant public unrest, and an increase in PM Hasina's crackdowns. Only hope for BNP now is to discredit the vote and formenting enough unrest to force the army to intervene. Awami League's succesful strategy worked to divide the working relationship btw the two opposition parties, while boosting its own legitmacy. As such, it passed the series of war crimes tribunals against Jamaat. Complicated the once strong relationship, bc highlighted BNP's support for criminal organization. Jamaat-e-Islami has been focused more on its own issues, such as being banned from participation in elections. Resulted in a weak political opposition. Legitimacy of Awami has been further bolstered by the steady growth of the garment industry, despite the crisis. Ability to maintain economic growth has allowed the military to stay away from direct involvement. Awami also enjoys the support of the judiciary, state police and security forces, and the Indian government. Military dictatorship until civilian control in 90, that fought to counter the bloody rivalry btw the two parties. Developed a system where military was neutral caretaker to oversee elections, and where the two parties would alternate control of government each election cycle. Now the Awami League is attempting to secure back-to-back terms for the first time since the end of military rule. Military does not want to revert back to direct rule. But it will intervene if Awami begins large-scale crackdowns. Hussain Muhammad Ershad - Led bloodless coup in 82 and ruled until 90. Jatiya Party, the second-largest party in Bangladesh's coalition government - Called the Grand Alliance.

Tanzania

Dodoma Former German colony, until post WW1, when it was transferred to the UK. Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) Party has ruled country since its founding. Pres Jakaya Kikwete (2005-present) 4th President. Benjamin William Mkapa (95-05) 3rd president. Was strongly endorsed by Nyerere. Mkapa privatized state-owned corporations and instituted free market policies. Ali Hassan Mwinyi (85-95) 2nd pres. Worked to reverse socialist policies, encouraging private enterprises. Many argue that during Mwinyi's tenure the country was in transition from the failed socialism orientation that brought its economy to its knees. It is during Mwinyi's administration that Tanzania made some of the crucial decisions towards the liberalization of its economy and paved way for short-term economic growth . Julius Nyerere (64-85) 1st pres. Previously served as pres of Tanganyika. Founding father of the country. Nyerere issued the Arusha Declaration, which outlined his socialist vision of ujamaa that came to dominate his policies. The policies led to a collapsing economy, systematic corruption, and unavailability of goods. In the early 1970s Nyerere ordered his security forces to forcibly transfer much of the population to collective farms and, because of opposition from villagers, often burned villages down. The campaign pushed the nation to the brink of starvation and made it dependent on foreign food aid. Used to be German colony of Tanganyika until merging with Zanzibar to form Tanzania in 1964. Major transport and pipeline networks from Indian ocean westward into Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, and potentially South Sudan. Unlike Angola, financing and tech must come from Chinese and Japanese. Copper and cobalt from eastern DRC and hydrocarbons from South Sudan. Chinese want to build deep-water port in Bagamoyo -- Japs want to build port in Dar es Salaam. Dar es Salaam is country's economic hub One of four transport routes seeking access to Katanga (DRC) and Copperbelt (Zambia) copper and cobalt. Railways link up, but contstrained by old railways and limited port capacity. Instead focusing primarily on Rwanda, Burundi, and Uganda pathways Existing surface transportation network is constrained by capacity and efficiency. Central Corridor - runs south of Lake Victoria through Tanzania. Through center of Tanzania and Dodoma and then up through Burundi and Rwanda and Kivus. Passes through greenstone belts. But rail currently only ships 10% of mining, railroads need to be upgraded. Greenstone belts in Tanzania - most established East African mining region. Another constraint is the condition of Dar es Salaam - operating overcapacity, big delays. Lack of deep water berths, Idea has been floated to turn Zanzibar's Maruhubi port into a container port. Would challenge Kenya's new Lamu port. Southern Corridor - runs south from Tanzania, but caters more to what comes in and out of Central Africa's mining regions. Central African economies are driven by primary industries (raw materials, agriculture, mining, energy) - Great lakes countries could become low-end manufacturing hubs (textiles Mkugu River project - will make Tanzania the world's second largest producer of uranium (first is Kazakhstan) Trying to catch up and position itself as a credible alternative to Kenya - competing for FDI and economic development Dar es Salaam is overwhelmed as only major port. Cannot handle as much cargo as Mombasa and has longer delays (4-5 days vs 2-3) Only existing pipeline is the Tazama Pipeline, which carries crude oil from Dar es Salaam to a refinery in Zambia. Only fuels Zambia, and, along with the Tazara Railway, was built to allow Zambia to reduce dependence on apartheid South Africa Now Zambia imports most refined oil through South Africa. The Tamaza is seriously deteriorated. Little strategic importance. Zambia is considering the construction of a second refinery at Hoima, along with seperate pipeline. Insignificant Construction of new gas pipeline from Mnazi Bay in south to Dar es Salaam. Will be completed in three years and is financed by China. New proposals to also build LNG terminal in southern Tanzania (by 2016) No proven oil reserves, but much gas. It and Mozambique are only countries to produce gas in east africa. Songo Songo Island and Mnazi Bay. Not a natural gas exporter yet, but will be in future. Also has modest coal reserves. East African Community - Common currency - Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi. One of the steps towards forming a unified East African Federation. Currency makes sense especially for Kenya and Uganda. Kenya is the dominant exporter, Uganda is the dominant importer. Uganda and Tanzania have the potential to be large gas and oil producers, which could lead to FDI dramatically appreciating the country's currency (Dutch disease). Common currency would mitigate these risks. But a single currency makes it difficult for individual countries to deal w their own problems, since monetary policy will become responsibility of the East African Central Bank. East African monetary union will be slow to develop over 10 years as its member states harmonize their financial systems and institute necessary reforms. \ Tanzania is Kenya's natural rival, but does not have the geographic advantage or developed financial system to truly compete. Different business orientation - Kenya always focused on regional trade routes, while Tanzania is traditionally more oriented toward internal activities, with poorer infrastructure linkages and limited liberal economic development. Ultimately, activity north of Lake Victoria feeds into Kenyan economy, south feeds into Tanzania.

Qatar

Doha Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani Trying to rival Saudis 88% of population is migrant workers, mostly from South Asia (As are most migrants throughout the GCC) 'kafala' system - workers are bound to a single employer and forbidden to change jobs or obtain an exit visa without sponsor's permission. Wary of Saudi domination in any proposed GCC confederation. Also has its own special relationship with Iran to think about Emirs of Qatar are members of the Al-Thani dynasty and the state of Qatar was founded in 1850 by Muhammad bin Thani.

Vietnam

Hanoi Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung Communist Party General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong General Vo Nguyen Giap - insurgent. Originally led Viet Minh against Japanese during WW2. Then fought the French in the First Indochina War (46-54) and the US in the Vietnam War (60-75). Second most powerful man behind Ho Chi Minh. Ho Chi Minh - led Viet Minh movement for independence from 41 on. Died in 69. Worked for the Comintern in Russia in 23 before traveling to china to orhestrate his revolution at home. Deal with India to allow New Delhi exploration rights in offshore energy blocks. Needs technology to exploit offshore resources. Hanoi and US have largely forgave their bitter war. India has withdrawn from blocks that overlapped with Chinese claims. Ancient antagonism with China. Sino-Vietnamese War - One month in 1979. 'Third IndoChina War'. China launched the offensive in response to Vietnam's invasion and occupation of Cambodia in 1978, which ended the reign of the Chinese-backed Khmer Rouge. Chinese Vice-premier Deng Xiaoping saw this as a Soviet attempt "to extend its evil tentacles to Southeast Asia and...carry out expansion there.", reflecting the long-standing Sino-Soviet split. Invaded and controlled few cities. China declared that the gate to Hanoi was open and that their punitive mission had been achieved. Chinese forces retreated back across the Vietnamese border, into China. Both China and Vietnam claimed victory in the last of the Indochina Wars of the 20th century; as Vietnamese troops remained in Cambodia until 1989 it can be said that China failed to achieve the goal of dissuading Vietnam from involvement in Cambodia. However, Moscow surely realized that any attempt at expanding its foothold in Southeast Asia would have involved risk of military confrontation with China. China demonstrated to its Cold War adversary, the Soviet Union, that they were unable to protect their new Vietnamese ally. Trend where Vietnam courts powerful allies to hedge against China. Could one day gain supporters who will help it challenge China's territorial claims. The pivot point of Southeast Asia, occupying key position along corridors connecting Malacca strait with Northeast Asian economies. Russia and Vietnam historically band together to counter China. Russia admires Vietnam because it has been a major area of focus for Beijing - either as a client state extending the Chinese coastline south, or as a potential thorn in Beijing's side. Many of the early regime's senior members were educated or trained in the Soviet Union, and Vietnam's current technocratic class was educated in Russian universities. In 79, the Soviets established a naval base at Cam Ranh Bay in response to China's invasion of Vietnam. Putin recently invited Hanoi to join its Customs Union. In November, major energy and defense cooperation agreements signed. Russian-Vietnamese energy cooperation began in 1981, when Vietsovpetro, joint venture, became the country's first oil company, extracting crude from the Bach Ho offshore fields. Vietnam's oil and gas consumption is growing swiftly, as GDP continues to grow by 6% each year. Struck deals on LNG, oil, and energy exploration. Gazprom acquired 49% stake in Vietnam's sole oil refinery at Dong Quat. Gazprom agreed to supply oil to the refinery through Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean pipeline. Previously, all of Vietnam's crude imports came from the Middle East. Looking to build two additional refineries, Nghi Son and Long Son. Rosneft is now a strategic parner in the mega-refinery project, Nhon Hoi, which could produce 600,000 barrels a day. Rosneft is looking to acquire stakees in disputed South China Sea blocks. PetroVietnam acquired rights to explore Russia's Pechora Sea in Siberia. Gazprom will supply the country with LNG from planned Vladivostok project. Will supply Vietnam's two regasification terminals, Thi Vai and Son My. Nam Con Son basin is disputed with CHina. Cuu Long Basin has been the primary area for oil production. PetroVietnam - state petrochemical company Russo-Vietnamese defense cooperation - Russia has sold submaries, frigates. Focus on naval technology will allow Vietnam to resist Chinese influence and protect sea routes. Vietnam's waters remain relatively underexplored in regards to energy. Vietnam is currently the third-largest holder of crude oil reserves in Asia, behind China and India. #34 OIL, 45 GAS, 18 COAL Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, China, Taiwan, and Brunei all claim sovereignty over the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea, which remains a key territorial dispute for Vietnam Has delayed until 2020 the construction of its first nuclear plant, which was set to open this year. Ninh Thuan 1. Concerns about safety and efficiency. Had expected nuclear power to eventually improve its energy security. PetroVietnam (the national oil champion) will instead build a massive natural gas facility to compensate.Hanoi will increase imports of hydropower, coal and liquefied natural gas to make up for the share of future power supply that was ultimately projected to come from nuclear sources. Setbacks are a common problem for newcomers to nuclear energy. There are international concerns that Vietnam lacks the skill, technology and infrastructure to operate a nuclear plant safely, and that it should not hurry the construction. Russia has offered to train the construction and science crews involved. The Communist Party knows that it may fall if there was any nuclear disaster similar to Japan's. Will rely on coal to offset its increased energy imports. Already imports hydropower from Laos and China, a dependency it hopes to limit. Electricity demand is skyrocketing in the south, but coal supplies are located mostly in the north. Developing offshore gas fields would be critical - needs massive outside investment and production sharing agreements with international oil companies to explore for new resources. Vietnam expected most of its future increase in natural gas production to come from Chevron's offshore blocks in the Malay Basin, but negotiations broke down. Has decided to build several LNG import terminals. Cai Mep-Thi Vai terminal will import LNG from Russia in 2016. But all have been delayed. The nuclear deal was supposed to tie Russia and Japan into Vietnam's alliance structure. Read more: Vietnam: A Delay in Nuclear Power Raises Energy Security Concerns | Stratfor Follow us: @stratfor on Twitter | Stratfor on Facebook

Austria

Lowest unemployment rate in EU Opposition - Freedom Party-anti-immigration

Aruba

Officially part of the Dutch Kingdom Part of the ABC islands - just north of Venezuela. Aruba, Curaçao, Bonaire. Aruba is one of the four constituent countries that form the Kingdom of the Netherlands, along with the Netherlands, Curaçao and Sint Maarten. Part of the Lesser Antilles.

Canada

Ottawa 35 million PM Stephen Harper (2006-present) Conservative Party. Climate change is making natural resources and transport routes more accessible. Arctic has more than 1/5 of world's undiscovered hydrocarbon resources. Northern Sea Route - from Asia to Europe, over Russia. Canada has regular fighter patrols over Arctic, and has refurbished its Ranger force for Arctic operations Keystone XL - Will connect oil from Alberta province through the Prairie lads east of Rockies and south to Gulf ports. China, India and Japan all would be interested in buying Canadian oil if it were available, and Canada is interested in obliging them. There are several proposals for pipelines that would connect Alberta to either the Atlantic or Pacific coasts, but rail might be a quicker and more attractive option because Canada would have to build only oil tanker loading terminals. The American and Canadian energy industries have transformed so quickly that pipelines connecting producing regions with consumption centers are now overwhelmed. Have increasingly turned to railways Though it is looking to diversify its client base, Canada currently only exports to the United States.) Proposed Energy East Pipeline would connect Alberta all the way across country to Quebec Proposed Northern Gateway would connect Alberta to Kitimat on Pacific Coast. In operation since 1953, the Trans Mountain pipeline system (TMPL) is the only pipeline system in North America that transports both crude oil and refined products to the west coast. TMPL moves product from Edmonton, Alberta, to marketing terminals and refineries in the central British Columbia region, the Greater Vancouver area and the Puget Sound area in Washington state Is one of the world's five largest energy producers and exports most of its materials to the US. Canada's unconventional oil sands are a significant contributor to the recent and expected growth in the world's liquid fuel supply and comprise the vast majority of the country's proven oil reserves, which rank third globally. Canada is the world's third-largest producer of dry natural gas and the source of most U.S. natural gas imports. Canada is a net exporter of electricity to the United States, and most of its power needs are met by hydroelectricity. Oil - 6, Gas - 4, Coal - 12 Canada is the second largest country in the world after Russia. However, its population is only about one-fifth of Russia's. Nearly 90% of Canadians live within 200km of the border with the United States, which means that Canada contains vast expanses of wilderness to the north. The US and Canada have the world's largest trading relationship. Separatist aspirations in the predominantly French-speaking province of Quebec are a major domestic issue. A referendum in 1995 saw advocates of an independent Quebec only narrowly defeated. Subsequent opinion polls indicated a fall in support for independence and the pro-independence Parti Quebecois was defeated in 2003's provincial election. NAFTA Canada, Mexico, US - 20 years of NAFTA. Was a generally positive, but economically disappointing deal. Was the reluctant integration of three countries with long histories of protectionism and defense of economic sovereignty. Was a major boon for the US agricultural industry. Is the world's 2nd largest trade block (first is the EU). Astonishing that there are only three countries in a territory more than twice the size of Europe. Post-WW2, as the British Empire crumbled, Canada had to become more integrated and dependent on the US economy. Canada and the US are each other's largest trading partners (China is Canada's second largest trading export destination). Mexico's vast pool of cheap labor was crucial for US growth. Major tensions came about as a result of Mexico's expropriation and nationalization of the oil industry in 1938. But nevertheless a strong cooperation btw the world's largest consumer and its neighbor, which provides low-end manufacturing. The EU's financial crisis has been a powerful argument for those opposed to a larger and more integrated NAFTA. Mexico's population will grow majorly in the next few decades. Mexico's manufacturing sector will be more competitive than China - while avoiding focusing mostly on low-end manufacturing - has diversified to high-tech industries and car manufacturing. Has a booming aerospace industry. But still challenges - middle class is growing slowly, while poor educational programs leave shortages of skilled labor for high-value added manufacturers. Organized crime slows investment. But constitutional reforms passed in 2013 will address the country's systemic weaknesses - education, finance, and energy. Importance of the energy reform is HUGE. Since the nationalization of oil in 38, Mexico's oil industry has languished. Mexican constitution prevented foreign firms from taking part in energy production, leading to technological stagnation and decreasing production and efficiency levels. U.S. companies are likely to be deeply involved in this process, especially since they command the best technical expertise for the deep-water offshore and unconventional onshore production that Mexico will need most -- yet again reinforcing formal and informal ties between the two countries. Now Canada is the 6th largest oil producer, thanks to its decades long unlocking of the country's unconventional oil sands reserves. 2/3 of Canada's oil production is sent to the US via pipeline. And in the US, revolutions in unconventional energy extraction has led to the revitalization of matured fields, and the extraction of HUGE amounts of natural gas which has driven the price down, and has allowed the US to be a potential LNG exporter. But true energy independence is unlikely. US will still rely on imports of oil from volatile regions. And exports of hydrocarbons would tie the two countries even more to the global market.

Panama

Panama City 4 million Manuel Noriega - 83-89 Military dictator. Was the protege of Omar Torrijos, who was the military dictator from 68-81. Torrijos sought to use socialism to force the US to give up control of the canal. He would die in a plane crash, and it was assumed that Noriega planted it. In the 1989 invasion of Panama by the United States he was removed from power, captured, detained as a prisoner of war, and flown to the United States. Noriega was tried on eight counts of drug trafficking, racketeering, and money laundering in April 1992. Was on the CIA's payroll for intelligence work to track down communist spies, as he was Intelligence chief under Torrijos. When he became dictator, he was a strong anti-communist US and CIA ally. Panama was an oasis of peace in a chaotic region. US had promised to turn over control of canal by end of century, provided Panama was stable enough to maintain it. But he killed the opposition leader Hugo Spadafora, and people protested publicly. Reagan tried to persuade him to step down, but VP Bush wanted him taken down. When Noriega refused Reagan's offer, then pres Bush staged a coup. An expose of Noriega by Seymour Hersh (86) appears in the New York Times, accusing him of murder, money laundering and drug trafficking. "Operation Just Cause". Extradited to France and then back to Panama. Expansion of the canal could cease at the end of January if Panama does not agree to pay $1.6 billion in unforeseen costs. Negotiations between multinational construction consortium (Grupo Unidos Por el Canal), Spanish financiers, and Panamanian overseers are dragging out. Consortium is threatening to stop construction. A stoppage could mean the canal could not be completed until 2020. Has already been delayed once, from 2014 to mid 2015. Could need a new consortium of builders and financial backers. A five year delay could strain regional ports and transportation infrastructure. Canal will improve connectivity between Asia and the eastern coasts of North America and South America by making an all-water route accessible to a wider range of ships. US gulf coast and trade ports in Caribbean would gain the most from increased shipping volumes of larger ships. New ports for new ships require hundreds of millions of dollars worth of improvements (especially dredging shallow ports), and the Western Hemisphere is very anxious about negotiations. Brazil, Jamaica, and Colombia have all began port improvements in preparations. A slight delay would be useful for the Western ports, which would have increased competition from a revitalized Eastern port system. Will help inland rail transportation which ships goods from West to consumers in east. But would hurt LNG shipments from gulf coast to asian consumers (especially as the first LNG export terminal in LA will be completed in 2016). Current canal is not deep enough to take LNG transport ships. Read more: Panama Canal Expansion: The Dangers of Long-Term Delays | Stratfor Follow us: @stratfor on Twitter | Stratfor on Facebook

Georgia

Tbilsi Georgian Dream - ruling party Pres Giorgi Margvelashvili PM Bidzina Ivanishvili Has announced that he would nominate Interior Minister Irakly Garabashvili to suceed him at PM Giorgi Margvelashvili wins presidency in October - w/ Ivanishvili's backing Won over President Mikhail Saakashvili and his United National Movement Ivanishvili's Georgian Dream won parliamentary elections in Oct. 2012. Created the GD two years ago to bring together various disparate opposition forces. He promised to step down after the presidential election - will resign late November New legal system - new constitution giving more power to parliament over the presidency, traditionally the strongest role in the country Political transformation in Georgia is a victory for Russia - Georgia has steadily opened up to Russia economically in the last year. Russia has resumed importing Georgian wine, mineral water, and agricultural products. Relations w Russia were very tense under Saakashvili - ex. the Georgian War 2008, which cut off all trade and ties btw the countries. Ivanishvili is a retail tycoon, strongly pro-business. Yet Russia has military presence in breakaway territories of Abkhazia (top left corner on the black sea) and South Ossetia (center north) Important energy transit country- biggest export route to bring oil directly from fields in the Caspian Sea region to European markets passes through Georgia Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, commissioned in 2006, runs from the Caspian Sea to the Black Sea The South Caucasus Pipeline (SCP) runs parallel to BTC and supplies natural gas to Georgia and Turkey from Caspian fields such as Azerbaijan's Shah Deniz. The pipeline began operating in 2007 Georgia generates revenue from transit fees for using the SCP and BTC pipelines. Because it relies on imports for virtually all oil and natural gas, Georgia's economy is very vulnerable to global energy price movements. Iranian trade and energy exports could challenge Russian influence. Rose Revolution - 20 days of protest. Change of power in Georgia in November 2003, which took place after widespread protests over the disputed parliamentary elections. As a result, President Eduard Shevardnadze was forced to resign on November 23, 2003. Marked the end of the Eduard Shevardnadze reign in Georgia, along with the end of a Soviet Era of leadership. Was forced to resign by Sakaashvili, who led demonstrators to Parliament. Inspired the Orange revolution a year later. Shevardnadze - Led country from '72-85 and 92-03. Began his political career as a Komsomol - the youth division of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union. Was the second most important foreign policy leader, after Gorbachev. Took over power in 92 through coup from Zviad Gamsakhurdia Signed association agreement, Russia threatened to reverse recent strengthening of economic ties. Georgia is a critical transit country for Azeri hydrocarbons. For the past two decades, was strongly pro-Western, and saw itself as an outpost of the West - was very eager to join EU and NATO. But Russia's invasion in 2008 changed that. Not to mention that the Russians have troops on the ground in the territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Is at risk of being Finlandized by Russia. Is a far different situation than that which occured a decade ago with the Rose Revolution bringing West to Georgia. The new PM and Pres are from Ivanishvilli's Georgian Dream party, and can be expected to pursue his same foreign policy. Moldova and Georgia will become focal points of competition btw West and Russia this year. Russia will threaten cutoffs and place economic pressure on both countries to dissuade them from agreeing to EU program, and will probably succeed. Country is looking to phase out the entire Soviet helicopter line, and replace them with Western models from the US and France. Will create great suspicion in Moscow. This transition is in line with the country's integration process with NATO, a process that requires adjusting Georgian military hardware to the organization's standards. Most of the helicopters are Soviet Mi-24 attack helicopters (introduced in 1972) and Mi-8 utility copters (introduced in 67). In the past, Saakashvili purchased 12 UH-1H (Hueys, first produced in 59) from the US and Turkey - but many of these were destroyed during the 2008 war. Legally, the sale does not violate the de facto weapons embargo placed after the war, because Hueys are not outfitted with weapons at their time of delivery. Russia would have protested vocally if the sale was for offensive weapons. Hinted that more defense and weapons cooperation with the west would follow. Russian news agency released reports that Georgia could be looking to get rid of its Soviet tanks and more helicopters. While political and economic ties have improved btw Russia and Georgia since GD came to power, military cooperation has not. Most recently, Georgia's EU aspirations led Russia to build obtrusive security fences around South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Russia and Georgia have seen much cooperation in key industries like energy and transportation. 1991-1992 South Ossetian War - between Georgian government forces and ethnic Georgian militia on one side and the forces of South Ossetia and ethnic Ossetian militia who wanted South Ossetia to secede from Georgia and become an independent state, supported by individual Russian troops, on the other. The war ended with a Russian-brokered ceasefire, signed on 24 June 1992, which established a joint peacekeeping force and left South Ossetia divided between the rivaling authorities. War in Abkhazia (1992-93) - Took advantage of the internal Georgian chaos taking place due to Shevardnadze's taking over political power in Tbilsi and the aftermath of the South Ossetian War. Was waged chiefly between Georgian government forces on one side and Abkhaz separatist forces supporting independence of Abkhazia from Georgia, Russian armed forces and North Caucasian hired fighters on the other side. Ethnic Georgians who lived in Abkhazia fought largely on the side of Georgian government forces. Ethnic Armenians and Russians within Abkhazia's population largely supported Abkhazians. Large-scale campaign of ethnic cleansing against ethnic Georgian population Russia-Georgia War of 2008 - The 1991-92 South Ossetia War between ethnic Georgians and Ossetians had left slightly more than a half of South Ossetia under de facto control of a Russian-backed, internationally unrecognised government. Russia said it would defend Russian citizens in South Ossetia if it was attacked. Georgia launched a large-scale military offensive against South Ossetia, in an attempt to reclaim the territory. Georgia claimed that it was responding to attacks on its peacekeepers and villages in South Ossetia, and that Russia was moving non-peacekeeping units into the country. The Georgian attack caused casualties among Russian peacekeepers, who resisted the assault along with Ossetian militia. Russia claims its subsequent invasion was a necessary humanitarian intervention and peace enforcement. Russian and Ossetian forces battled Georgian forces throughout South Ossetia for four days, the heaviest fighting taking place in Tskhinvali. Russian naval forces allegedly blockaded a part of the Georgian coast and landed marines on the Abkhaz coast. Russian forces subsequently raided military bases in western Georgia. After five days of heavy fighting in South Ossetia, the Georgian forces retreated, enabling the Russians to enter uncontested Georgia and temporarily occupy cities. After negotiations, Russia established buffer zones around Abkhazia and South Ossetia and created checkpoints in Georgia's interior. Russian forces remain stationed in Abkhazia and South Ossetia under bilateral agreements with the corresponding governments. United States announced it would finance the country's participation in the NATO Response Force

Turkmenistan

Traditionally nomadic Most of its largest natural gas fields lie on border with Iran. Iran could be important new option for increasing Turkmen gas to Gulf or West. Could also be new partner for security and intelligence to prevent Islamists spreading from Afghanistan. Russia wants to be the middle man for transport of Central Asian energy to Europe - will pressure Turkmenistan to forgo pipeline through Caspian and Turkey to Europe.

Tajikistan

Traditionally non-nomadic Ferghana Valley - Has several exclaves in U&K' Divided between east and west (east is rebellious & Islamist) Strong Russian military presence Virtually no resources

Sri Lanka

Colombo 20 million President Mahinda Rajapaksa Govt will seek to revitalize provincial economies through outside investment and infrastructure development. Will see greater foreign capital into the country's ambitious infrastructure, energy, and mineral extraction sectors. Agriculture and manufacturing, specificall textiles production, will be main forcus of growth, as the country tries to take advantage of lower labor costs.

India

Capital - New Delhi PM Manmohan Singh Congress Party - Based around moderation, inclusiveness with all ethnicities, and quasi-socialism - Also associated w nepotism & corruption Opposition-Bharatiya Janata Party - Hindu nationalist Communist militants - Naxalites Recently approved Telanganan statehood Always had weak central authority and strong state governments Modi - Gujarati mayor, running for PM-nationalist and abrasive new style of indian politics, many hold him responsible for 2002 massacre of 2,000 Muslims Rahul Gandhi-great grandson of Nehru, mother controls party authority. Conservative, status quo choice. Elections in six months Worried about jihadists infiltrating India from Kashmir 'Look East' Policy Has made partnerships with Russia on energy and military. Soviets had big role in development of heavy industry in India in the mid 20th century. Served India's non-aligned but slightly pro-socialist tilt during the cold war. When tensions btw the Soviet Union and China flared in the 60's and 70's, ties with India became very strong. India's military is overwhelmingly supplied by Russia --most hardware is built by Russia, although India complains about the inferior quality of the technology (is seeking new Western partners). Used to be partners in supporting the Northern Alliance against the Taliban - could work together post US withdrawal. Russia has strengthened Indian navy - first aircraft carrier, submarines, and training exercises. Comes as Moscow defense ties with China are decreasing, as China is building more hardware in-country, and Russia has declined to sell more advanced weapons systems. Strategy with India is very similar to Moscow's moves in Vietnam - India is also making defense deals with Hanoi, acquired the right to use the Nha Trang port, and made its own hydrocarbon deals in the South China Sea (although it has been careful to avoid exploring directly in the area claimed by China, unlike Russia). India is potentially also a major energy outlet for Russian gas. India will be the third largest energy consumer by 2020, and Russia is looking to expand LNG export with its six planned LNG facilities. Indian gas consumption is set to double in the next five years. Potential for overland supply, but would have to go through Afghanistan and Pakistan, or China. Makes sense for New Delhi, since it is looking to diversify its gas supply away from Qatar, which currently is 80% of all imports. Has sought to diversify to East African countries like Mozambique, as well as the US and Russia. 1962 - Sino-Indian War - Border Conflict. A disputed Himalayan border was the main pretext for war, but other issues played a role. There had been a series of violent border incidents after the 1959 Tibetan uprising, when India had granted asylum to the Dalai Lama. India initiated a Forward Policy in which it placed outposts along the border, including several north of the McMahon Line, the eastern portion of a Line of Actual Control proclaimed by Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai in 1959. The war ended when the Chinese declared a ceasefire on 20 November 1962, and simultaneously announced its withdrawal from the disputed area. The Sino-Indian War is notable for the harsh mountain conditions under which much of the fighting took place, entailling large-scale combat at altitudes of over 4,000 metres (14,000 feet) The Line of Actual Control (LAC) is a demarcation line that separates Indian-ruled lands from Chinese-held territory. The demarcation existed as the informal cease-fire line between India and China after the 1962 conflict till 1993, when its existence was officially accepted as the 'Line of Actual Control' in a bilateral agreement. Elections in May 2014 will consume country. Congress/United Progressive Alliance will be a lame-duck govt as the economy continues to sluggishly operate. The Bharatiya Janata Party will show itself as the force capable of lifting the Indian economy out of their problems. But there will be a rising popularity of local parties opposing the traditional duopoly of power. New Delhi will work to increase FDI and infrastructure development. The US-Iranian negotiations will create opportunities for India to expand ties with Iran and potentially cooperate in Afghanistan. But the removal of Iranian sanctions will end India's favorable pricing for Iranian oil, further stressing the country's energy import bill. Arrest of Gudsa Usendi, spokesman for regional Maoist militants known as Naxalites. Will not be a major blow to Naxalites, as he was probably not involved in operational details. His expertise was not in tactical planning, but in public relations via the group's website. He reportedly disagreed with their violent use of collateral damage. But 2014 should see increased arrests, defections, and raids against the Maoists' leadership and key positions, leading to counterattacks in southern and eastern India. Dandakaranya is forest area situation between the borders of Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra and Odisha where Naxalites operate. Congress Party will play up the capture, as the group massacred the Party's local leadership in May 25 attacks in Chhattisgarh Japan is looking to support India's development into a manufacturing hub. India has worked to normalize its border relations with China, while Japan has gone on the offensive against beijing. India and China are trying to normalize relations on the Line of Actual Control US reaches out to opposition leader Modi - US ambassador requested meeting with Narendra Modi, chief minister for Gujarat state. He is a controversial figure, after sectarian violence in 2002 where he facilitated Hindu violence against Muslims. Pardoned by Indian courts, but found himself blacklisted by the US and UK. He is frontrunner for BJP in May elections, and could become India's next PM. In 2008 George Bush similarly reengaged with India, cooperating on reforming India's civil nuclear program. It was expected at the time that the US would receive preferential investment access into India's civil nuclear program, as well as in IT, infrastructure, and other economic sectors. Instead, the inertia of the Indian political machine and New Delhi's traditional avoidance of long-term alliance structures left U.S. ambitions out in the cold for several years. In the meantime, the US encouraged Japan, South Korea, and Australia to expand their ties with New Delhi. They have enjoyed bilateral ties in investment and defense coordination. Combination of economic crisis and political transition will prove troublesome. Current polls show BJP leading the Indian National Congress. Domestic and foreign observers expect a Bharatiya Janata-led government to have a more investor-friendly, pro-business policy agenda. But new govt will have to consolidate control over unruly states. Meanwhile the country is extremely energy poor. And the country must spend massive amounts of money on subsidizing the enormous poor population. Read more: Political and Economic Volatility in Important Markets | Stratfor Follow us: @stratfor on Twitter | Stratfor on Facebook

France

Capital - Paris Pres Francois Hollande - Socialist Party Elysee - seat of government Opposition -Marine Le Pen's National Front- anti-immigration anti-EU-protectionism. Electoral system is specifically designed to curb their popularity. Two-round voting system reduces fringe parties' chances of accessing power. Oppose Bulgaria and romania joining EU Total - French energy company Moving away from Nuclear energy (depends on it for 75%) - only US uses more nuclear energy World's largest exporter of electricity Working to develop renewables - will be long and difficult transition Little domestic energy production Many oil refineries, one third of all energy imports are crude oil Banned shale gas - imports LNG from Algeria and Qatar Four French citizens kidnapped by AQIM, after four years released after suspected French ransom payment Fifth Republic - 1958-present. Replaced parliamentary system with presidential one, largely because of decolonization and largely because of the Algerian crisis. Fourth Republic - 1946-58 - end of WWII. Largely a continuation of Third Republic. Set up strong welfare state. Third Republic - 1870-1940 - ended w/ Vichy France govt. Created immense colonies Second French Empire - 1852-1872 - Napoleon III's Empire Second French Republic - 1848-52 - Revolution began it, Napoleon III's coup ended it 1814-48 - Restorement of Bourbon dynasty/monarchy First French Empire - 1804-14 - Napoleon I First French Republic - 1792-1804. Napoleon ended it French students' protests in 1968 - Communists and socialists joing union. Wildcat strikes (worker strikes without the approval of labor unions). Largest strike ever attempted in France - brought advanced capitalist economy to a halt and almost overthrew Charles de Gaulle's govt. Major fears of civil war or revolution. De Gaulle fled to Germany. Stable border to south and east - Pyrenees and Alps - allowed France to cohere socially and nationally. Only insecure on North European Plain. Paris is located in the Beauce (France's most prosperous agricultural region), which is connected w/ several river networks. Allowed country to have strong central govt and weak regions (has never had to deal w/ serious secessionist movements. Whereas Spain and Italy have rugged geography, which led to social and political disunity and impeded consolidation of strong central power. Strong state and little intermediary btw ppl and govt (hence need for unions). Trade unions play central role in organizing protests Agriculture is a very sensitive issue - France is second-largest agricultural exporter and sixth-largest producer in world. Has troops in Lebanon, CAR, Chad, and Gabon In recent years has adopted more hawkish and harsh foreign policy Mali required minimal troops, but relied on US for intell, refueling, surveillance, and reconaissance. Domestic situation has made Hollande extremely unpopular at home - 2 in three people are willing to march in the street - strong foreign policy distracts public. France is looking to take up US position as major ally of Saudis, UAE and Qatar - wants to be more involved in major arms deals. Red Caps - Emerged in Brittany to protest ecotax, a levy on heavy transport vehicles. Is the only issue that binds the movements disparate elements together. Broad-based anger toward French government, but cannot be explained by ideological or social divisions. Blocked initial US Iranian negotiation. Is looking to the Gulf countries a potential market for energy firms and defense exporters. Jean-Marie Le Pen was a french politician and former leader of the far-right National Front - handed over leadership to his energetic daughter, Marine. Hollande announced fiscal overhaul of tax system. Has had to include trade unions and big business employers in negotiations, which is intended to reach consensus without protests. Has relied heavily on tax hikes to reduce French deficit. Two out of three French citizens are willing to protest govt. Most unifying complaint is higher taxes. High taxes are nothing new to French, who see them as price needed to pay for good public services such as health and education, while creating strong safety net through unemployment benefits and family allowances (support for multiple children). Can supply security and investment in its former African colonies, but its economic struggles are allowing China to take over in the economic sphere. Wanted to establish trade networks and secure access to strategic industrial commodities through imperialism. Saw itself as a civilizing force in Africa - introduced French language and customs. Needed priveleged access to raw materials such as oil and uranium, mainly through French multinational companies. Currently has permanent military presence in Cote d'Ivoire, Chad, Senegal, Gabon, Djibouti. The majority of French military personnel currently deployed overseas are in Africa. For most former colonies, France is the most important source of imports. French companies are looking to expand operations in non-European markets after financial crisis. Former African colonies are a natural choice for the expansion, but France is losing ground to China, the US, and Germany. A decade ago, France was the main exporter to Africa. Now it is in fifth place behind china, India, the US, and Germany. Euro has made French companies less competitive. Labor cost have increased and exports have thus become more expensive. China is now Africa's largest trading partner, inspiring further investment from India and Brazil. French companies in general will have a hard time expanding their operations to other countries so long as French competitiveness is low and credit limited. Africa will remain an attractive destination for investment in energy and raw materials, but French companies will not be successful in selling consumer products. Since the 1990's, structural changes to the armed forces have reduced the size of the military and its capability, limiting its ability to intervene abroad. Its recent interventions reveal that france is willing to commit only to a limited scale, when its strategic interests are at stake. In competition with China, France could offer security interests to try and sweeten the deal, considering China has not gotten involved directly in military situations in Africa. Islands of Mayotte (south of Comoros) and Reunion (West of Mauritius) are still French provinces Trying to place additional administrative restrictions on foreign workers and immigrants. Major trend in EU in future - restricting the free movement of workers. Trying to tighten controls on hiring cheap, temporary workers from other countries. Posted workers - those who are posted abroad for up to two years to carry out a specific job. They must respect the labor rules of the host country, but social security charges remain those of the home state, meaning they are cheaper than local workers. Posted worker program was created in 96, before the EU expanded to Central and Eastern Europe. Expansion east began btw 2004-07, led to renewed criticism of 'labor dumping' posted workers. In France these workers are primarily in the contruction/agricultural sectors, and are mostly from Poland, Portugal, and Romania. National Front criticizes these workers in the north and south, the two regions with higher unemployment rates and where it is most popular. French unions also criticize the system. Pressing issues with EU Parliament elections in April. New trend will be imposing administrative measures to discourage foreign workers by limiting their access to social benefits, and delaying the accession of Romania, Bulgaria, Cyprus, and Croatia to the Schengen Zone The country is also seeking to reduce its high labor costs, making the French economy less competitive than neighbors such as Germany. Paris has criticized Germany's trade surplus and pushed for minimum wage in Berlin. French Guiana - Province of France. Northeast South America. Devil's island was used as Penal Colony. Notorious for exile of political prisoners. New Caledonia - Off East Coast of Australia. Was a French penal colony. Prior french alliances with eastern Europe - Before WW2, French had built up alliances with Eastern Europe, but failure to stop Germany from remilitarizing the Rhineland led the countries to lose faith in the alliance. Municipal elections scheduled for 2014 The Maginot Line was named after the French Minister of War André Maginot, was a line of concrete fortifications, obstacles, and weapons installations that France constructed along its borders with Germany during the 1930s. The line was a response to France's experience in World War I and was constructed during the run-up to World War II. A similar line of defenses, called the Alpine Line, faced Italy. The French established the fortification to provide time for their army to mobilize in the event of attack, allowing French forces to move into Belgium for a decisive confrontation with Germany. The success of static, defensive combat in World War I was a key influence on French thinking. Military experts extolled the Maginot Line as a work of genius, believing it would prevent any further invasions from the east. While the fortification system did prevent a direct attack, it was strategically ineffective, as the Germans invaded through Belgium, outflanking the Maginot Line. The German army ran through the Ardennes forest and the Low Countries, completely sweeping by the line, defeating the French army and conquering France in about six weeks Hollande announced substantial spending cuts and lower taxes for companies. Significant because in May, the country has municipal elections, which the Socialists will probably lose due to stagnating economy and unemployment. Major public spending cuts. Surprisingly conservative policies. Even the right wing Union for a Popular Movement opposition party couldn't criticize the move - very puzzling. Was an admission by the Elysee that high labor costs and strong public spending are hurting the economy. During his presidential campaign, he had promised to reduce unemployment by raising taxes while avoiding austerity measures. Meanwhile the National Front is making major advances. His announcement is leading to criticism from the left-wing branch of the socialist party. Cabinet ministers are trying to get rid of the unpopular PM Jean Marc Ayrault. Unlike in the past, devaluing the French currency is not an option because of Eurozone membership. Grassroots demonstrations spread - French government announced Feb. 3 that the controversial Family Law -- which, among other things, would have expanded the possibilities of gay couples having children -- would not be approved this year and would be reconsidered in 2015. Votes will punish the Socialist Party in municipal elections in March, and European elections in May. Will make it more difficult for Socialists to reform the economy. The French government currently is holding talks with business groups and trade unions and is expected to announce the details of its anti-crisis plan by mid-year. The measures are meant to appease a population that is increasingly dissatisfied with Hollande's administration. People from very different backgrounds -- from truck drivers and farmers in Brittany (the so-called Red Caps) to middle-class professionals in Paris -- have begun joining forces to protest against the government. Many people oppose recognition of gay marriage, which was approved in 2013. The French government is so unpopular, and public discontent is so high, that an anti-gay group can protest alongside an anti-taxes group since both reject the government. But Hollande has strong backing in the parliament. Protesters' votes will go primarily to two parties: the center-right Union for a Popular Movement (whose former leader, Nicolas Sarkozy, wants to return to the Elysee in 2017) and the far-right National Front. The National Front does not have high hopes for the municipal elections, as France's two-round system is precisely designed to benefit mainstream parties. (Even if the National Front makes it to the second round, moderate voters are likely to vote for center-right or center-left candidates.) But it will perform well in European elections - The National Front hopes to win enough seats in the EU Parliament to form a relatively large coalition with the Dutch Party of Freedom and similar nationalist parties. These parties hope to form a large enough bloc in the EU Parliament to freeze the process of European integration. If the president is perceived as weak, his opponents -- from grassroots movements to trade unions and center-right and right-wing parties -- will feel more confident in protesting the president's proposals. Also, frictions within the French government will increase as moderates fight with left-wing factions on what policies to apply. He doesn't want to be seen as a lame duck president with 2.5 years left in his term. In a bid for the support of conservative and nationalist voters, the Elysee is likely to strengthen its actions against minorities and immigrants. Expulsions of migrants from the Roma minority reached record levels in 2013, and crackdowns will probably increase this year. France will eventually seek to apply additional controls on the arrival of foreign workers. Paris will also probably refrain from promoting reforms on sensitive social issues, trying to show full commitment to the creation of jobs.

Gabon

Currently hosts permanent French military forces

Djibouti

Currently hosts permanent French military forces One of few French colonies outside of West Africa Formerly called French Somaliland.

Guinea-Bissau

Former Portuguese colony (one of five)

Arab Spring

Not a single liberal democratic regime has emerged

Lithuania

Vilnius LNG import terminal will be completed in 2014

Germany

Berlin Chancellor Angela Merkel 2005-present Unified in 1871 - Same date as Italy, unified late. Unified by Bismarck. Franco-Prussian War officially united Germany. Eastern states are agricultural. Western are industrial. Moving away from nuclear energy - towards renewables. Making considerable headway Largest energy consumer in Europe - 4th largest economy in world after US China Japan. One of largest oil refiners in the world Depends on oil - many pipelines Wilhelmshaven - sole deepwater port No LNG import station - relies on piped gas from Russia (Nord Stream), Norway (NorPipe, Europipe), and Netherlands 8th largest producer of coal Neo-Nazi group Free Network South German trade surplus - strong exports with far less consumption. Has been criticized by Europe and US for undermining exporters in other countries and not consuming enough domestically to help troubled eurozone countries. Germany will limit its trade surplus, but with limited effect, because it fears protectionism and the dissolution of the eurozone. Has run a trade surplus since 1990. Meanwhile troubled countries are pressured to lower domestic consumption and improve the competitiveness of their exports through unpopular labor market reform. W/ financial crisis, Germany has diversified its export markets to US and China. Sharing a currency w/ less competitive countries has helped in two ways. 1. better access to European markets for German companies and 2. enables Germany to profit from weaker currency than if it were outside the eurozone. Before euro, countries could manipulate their currencies to become more competitive. While German wages are far higher, its competitiveness comes from quality and logistics of goods. Demographics can help explain strong German exports and weak domestic demand - aging and shrinking population means large portion of population is btw 40-60 years old, who save far more to prepare for retirement (eventually this will harm Germany greatly, but for the short term it is a benefit). Because Germany has such an export-oriented economy, preserving the eurozone is essential. Fears above all else protectionism and collapse of eurozone. Former Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder. 98-2005. Was member of Social Democratic Party. Now the chairman of Nord Stream. Hoping to gain greater exposure for energy firms and exports to Iran's large domestic consumer base. Germany had huge trade relationship with Iran before sanctions. CDU formed coalition with Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union and the Social Democratic Party. Will create new minimum wage. Germany must balance between European cohesiveness and relations with Russia. Geopolitically, Germany wants to be Russia's main European partner to ensure no alliance emerges btw Russia and France/Britain. Relationship makes sense. Germany has high demand for energy bc of strong industrial base, but lacks domestic supplies. Nord Stream provides direct link. Berlin opposed NATO ties to Ukraine and Georgia in 2008 to accommodating Russia. Wants new ties w Russia, but with acknowledgement of Poland, which will begin to doubt German reliability as Russia becomes more assertive. The sole truth - Central and Eastern European countries do not rely on Germany for military security; NATO and US can provide security guarantee. Germany is needed instead to support their interests in energy relations with Russia. Berlin wants lower gas prices for itself firstmost, but it can leverage power over Russian prices to east Europe bc Russia relies on German demand. In the long term, Germany hopes to diversify with renewables and North American shale. Meanwhile Russia is seeking to diversify from Europe by selling to Asia. Russia will be trying to strengthen its industrial base and decrease dependence on energy sector in the next year. German companies will be important partners from which to acquire technical expertise. Russia will look to buy German companies and attract them to set up production sites in Russia. Germany will be looking to export to Russia instead, and argue for closer business ties, which could go against Russian producers. German NGO's and think tanks have long held programs in Ukraine. They are the most influential of any European country in Ukraine. Two largest are the Freidrich Ebert Foundation (tied to the Social Democratic Party) and the Konrad Adenauer Foundation (tied to the Christian Democratic Union) which both receive millions from the fed govt annually. KAF is the most active and has the strongest ties to Vitali Klitschko's Ukranian Democratic Alliance for Reform. Klitschko lived in Germany as a boxer and was decorated by the govt in 2010 for his efforts to improve German-Ukranian ties. He learned the CDU's inner workings and gained the trust of Merkel. Ties to Paris, Brussels, and Warsaw. Germany will walk middle ground. Has no ties in offering billions in financial assistance up front as Ukraine requested, and alienating Russia would have a tremendous cost. Klitschko is just one of the leaders of opposition, though he is the most popular. But many protesters are merely demonstrating against the gov, not against russian ties. UDAR is still small and its voter base is concentrated in Kiev. Not to mention, many Ukranians are wary of Germany, and Russia can easily portray Klitschko as a western puppet. Plus, the CDU's main coalition partner, the Social Democratic Party, prefers favorable ties with Russia, and will not approve of interfering in ukraine. The EU wants to weaken Russia's leverage in the natural gas sector. Standoff over Gazprom's monopolistic practices in Europe and the South Stream plans, which do not comply with EU rules. Poland is a major supplier of cheap labor to Germany. Germany also sees Poland as an alternative source of energy as Warsaw explores shale gas and opens its first LNG terminal Remilitarization of the Rhineland - The remilitarization of the Rhineland by the German Army took place on 7 March 1936 when German military forces entered the Rhineland. This was significant because it violated the terms of the Treaty of Versailles and the Locarno Treaties, marking the first time since the end of World War I that German troops had been in this region. The Versailles Treaty also stipulated that the Allied military forces would withdraw from the Rhineland in 1935, although they actually withdrew in 1930. Germany was considering remilitarizing the Rhineland in response to the Franco-Soviet pact of May 1935. Allowed Hitler to present his coup both at home and abroad as a defensive move against Franco-Soviet "encirclement" . Some say Rhineland remilitarization more as ad hoc improvised response on the part of Hitler to the economic crisis of 1936 as a cheap and easy way of restoring the regime's popularity. French forces massed to oppose them/threaten - If french had attacked, Germany would have been overthrown and lost war - wholly unprepared. Munich Agreement - A settlement permitting Nazi Germany's annexation of portions of Czechoslovakia along the country's borders (squeezed the state inwards on all sides) mainly inhabited by German speakers, for which a new territorial designation "Sudetenland" was coined. An agreement among the major powers of Europe, without the presence of Czechoslovakia. Failed act of appeasement against Germany. Sudetenland was of immense strategic importance to Czechoslovakia, as most of its border defenses were situated there, and many of its banks and heavy industries were located there as well. Because the state of Czechoslovakia was not invited to the conference, it considered itself to have been betrayed by the United Kingdom and France, so Czechs and Slovaks call the Munich Agreement the Munich Betrayal (Especially since France and UK had military alliance with Prague). Nazi leader Adolf Hitler's pretext for this effort was the alleged privations suffered by the ethnic German population living in those regions. Anschluss of Austria - the occupation and annexation of Austria into Nazi Germany in 1938. Nazi Germany had provided support for the Austrian Nazi Party in its bid to seize power from Austria's Austrofascist leadership. They transferred power to Germany, and Wehrmacht troops entered Austria to enforce the Anschluss. Although the Allies were committed to upholding the terms of the Treaty of Versailles and St. Germain, which specifically prohibited the union of Austria and the German Empire, their reaction was only verbal and moderate. No military confrontation took place. The Anschluss was among the first major steps of Adolf Hitler's creation of a Greater German Reich which was to include all ethnic German and all the lands and territories which the German Empire had lost after World War I. Invasion of Czechoslovakia - The incorporation of the Sudetenland into Nazi Germany left the rest of Czechoslovakia weak and it became powerless to resist subsequent occupation. On 16 March 1939, the German Wehrmacht moved into the remainder of Czechoslovakia and, from Prague Castle, Hitler proclaimed Bohemia and Moravia the Protectorate of Bohemia and Moravia. Persuaded Slovakia to demand independence, then threatened Prague with Lutwaffe bombing. 1935 soviet french mutual assistance agreement - The Franco-Soviet Treaty of Mutual Assistance was a bilateral treaty between the two countries with the aim of encircling Nazi Germany in 1935 in order to reduce threat from central Europe. Hollow diplomatic threat of war on two fronts for Germany, should Germany pursue an aggressive foreign policy. Most of the Locarno powers felt that it would only act as a means of dragging them into a suicidal war with Germany for Russia's benefit. In response to the threat to Germany clearly presented by the Franco-Soviet alliance, Germany remilitarised the Rhineland and began fashioning anti-Communist alliances with neighbouring states. Klaipėda/Memel Region(Lithuania), Danzig (border of Germany & Poland), and Saar, were defined by the Treaty of Versailles in 1920, to remain under the control of the League of Nations until a future day when the people of these regions would be allowed to vote on whether the land would return to Germany or not. In 2014, Germany will work on energy reforms, to deal with rising costs as a result of increased renewable energy usage. Siegfried line more commonly refers to the similar World War II defensive line, built during the 1930s, opposite the French Maginot Line, which served a corresponding purpose. The Germans themselves called this the Westwall, but the Allies renamed it after the World War I line. Had more than 18,000 bunkers, tunnels and tank traps. It went from Kleve on the border with the Netherlands, along the western border of the old German Empire as far as the town of Weil am Rhein on the border to Switzerland. More with Nazi propaganda in mind than for any strategic reason, Adolf Hitler planned the line from 1936 and had it built between 1938 and 1940 Ukraine is important to Russia, but not very important to Europe (with the exception of Baltic states and poland). But Poland, the Czech republic and Slovakia are crucial for Germany's industrial supply chain and a source of cheap labor. Germany needs these states to remain under German influence. The sign that Berlin has supported opposition groups in Ukraine means something has changed in the German view of Russia - that there are no long-term economic benefits to remaining linked to Russia besides energy. Is confident that Russia would not shut off energy. Merkel has said the country will adopt a more aggressive foreign policy revolving around the military. Berlin thinks military cooperation will be necessary to keep the EU together. Germany wants to expand its military operations overseas, especially in Africa, which will tie it more closely to France. Could be looking to challenge Russian resurgence. Relations with the US have been strained ever since Germany refused to take part in the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Red Army Faction - terrorist organization trained by the Soviets. Also known by the nickname Baader-Meinhof Gang. Created in the 1970's in western Germany. It was made up mostly of middle-class youth bent on waging an anti-imperialist urban guerrilla war using tactics learned in Middle Eastern training camps from groups such as the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine and the Palestine Liberation Organization. Received financial and logistical support from east Germany. In 1972, the founders of the Red Army Faction -- Andreas Baader, Gudrun Ensslin, Horst Mahler and Ulrike Meinhof -- were all arrested and eventually died in police custody. After the reunification of Germany, the group has disbanded and disappeared.

Saudi Arabia

King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz (89yrs old) "Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques" Riyadh Nothing could be worse than if US and Iranians normalized relations Going through transition to third generation of royal family-all of the founder's sons will have passed Largest producer and exporter of oil in the world. #8 gas Ghawar Field - largest oil field in world 55% of its oil goes to east Asia - second largest exporter to US (after Canada) Saudis rejected two-year non permanent seat w/ Security Council US has been their protector for over 70 years When Iraq fell into Iranian orbit, Riyadh made its first military engagement, leading the GCC to quell Shia-Bahrainis Saudis can use anti-Shia sectarian militant proxies to battle Iran Supporting Egypt to keep Arab Spring from spreading to Riyadh First state to ever reject a security council seat Closest ally is Kuwait. Challenged by Qatar. When Saudi state collapsed in lat 1800's, al-Sauds fled to Kuwait. From Kuwait, the founder of modern Saudis, King Abdulaziz bin Abudul Rahman al-Saud, conquered his family's land. Saudis floating the possibility that they could acquire nuclear weapons from Pakistan. Relations with Pakistan are strong - Saudis have provided Pakistan w more aid than any other country outside the Arab world. Was one of the only countries to support Pakistan's nuclear test in '98. Saudis have CSS-2 missiles purchased from China, mostly aimed at Israel and Iran, but would rely almost fully on Pakistan's expertise and technology. Saudis have a limited industrial base with which to build military and has to manage internal divisions. Relies on US military sales, contractor support, and domestic control. US and Saudis banded together out of necessity Paradox - opposes Islamist radicals at home, but supports them in Syria/Iraq. US has plenty of oil now. Substantial Shiite population in oil-rich east Cannot stand a pro-Iranian Iraq. Needs American troops available as security guarantor,as they were in 1990. US now expects Saudi soldiers to fight Saudi Arabia's wars With Pakistan's leverage in Afghanistan diminished, will look to pick up the slack. Saudi-Pakistani cooperation against Iran will take place in Afghanistan. Will work to normalize relations with Israel behind the scenes now that Iran and US are allying Trying to turn the Gulf Cooperation Council into a more robust supranational entity/confederation to counter Iranian threat. Joint defense, joint military command, joint police force. Was originally proposed by King Abdullah two years ago. Other countries fear the Saudis will dominate any political union. Saudi-Bahraini confederation is more likely than GCC. Seeking a more assertive foreign policy. Saudis see the rapprochement with Iran as naive, and one that will backfire as Iranians expand their regional influence. Realize that they need to fend for themselves. But take heart in the fact that Iran would need a great deal of time to benefit fully from restored ties with the West. So Riyadh believes it has a window of opportunity in which to prepare itself for an unchained Iran. French and Saudis have similar foreign policy updates - Especially as Saudis are trying to compensate for loss of US support. Paris historically has a strong role in Lebanon and Syria, and has strongly supported the anti-Hezbollah March 14 movement and Syrian rebels. French also offer international legitimacy to Saudi cause, but allow them a more independent policy line than the US would tolerate. Saudi Arabia pledged $3 billion for the Lebanese military, doubling its annual budget and allowing it to purchase arms from France. Riyadh knows it cannot achieve what it wants in Syria unless it controls the situation in Lebanon. French provide an important ally, so that the outside world cannot blame Saudis alone for empowering al Qaeda and jihadists in Syria. France is also about to make important military deals in the Gulf. The Saudis will invest cash and human fighters into the Levant, while the French will provide intell and military components, as well as international legitimacy. France knows that if there is any force that can contain the jihadists, it is Saudi Arabia - Saudis are currently controlling the Islamic Front, a rebel coalition in Syria comprising all groups except for the two largest jihadist groups. Only Riyadh can support the rebels while isolating terrorist elements. Has a limit to how far it can support Lebanese salafists. Doesnt want to encourage jihadists in the Peninsula. For example, the Abdullah Azzam Brigades, which bombed the Iranian Embassy, could be an asset to Riyadh, but is also high on the Saudi's own domestic target list. May quietly try to strike peace with Iranians as negotiations proceed. Emir of the Abdullah Azzam Brigades (Iranian Embassy bombings) was found dead. Majid al-Majid, a Saudi national, led the Brigades, a 2004 offshoot of al Qaeda in Iraq. Has fired rockets into Israel from Lebanon, and attacked a Japanese oil tanker off the coast of Oman. He was known to have operated out of Ain al-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp in Lebanon, before relocating to Syria in 2012 where he worked with Jabhat al-Nusra. The camps are active recruiting grounds for Saudi Arabia. After undergoing kidney operation, he was arrested. Saudis demanded he be extradited, but Iranians wanted to question him over the embassy bombings. It is widely believed that instead of allowing him to be questioned, the Saudis killed him in his hospital. Majid was too dangerous for Riyadh to keep him alive - he had to be silenced. Major problem of Saudi foreign policy is that many of the jihadist factions gaining ground in the levant will likely turn on the House of Saud once the current battlefield loses its appeal. So they have been selective in which militant factions they support. For example, in Syria they have supported the Islamic Front coalition against the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant and Jabhat al-Nusra. Part of this is for public relations, but also mitigates militant backlash back home. Al Qaeda represents a far greater threat to Riyadh than it does to Iran. The group wants to challenge the Saudis as the leader of the Sunni world. So saudis have been working to isolate Jabhat and ISIL from the other Syrian rebel fighters. Has helped create the Islamic Front, a coalition of salafists who battle the regime AND al Qaeda. Saudi founder King Abdulaziz, in the 1920's, utilized the al-Ikhwan to consolidate control of the peninsula (the group was salafist). But after the group served its purpose and began pursuing its own interests, Abdulaziz destroyed them.

Federal Republic of Germany (FRG)

1949-90 West Germany

Turkey

PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan - notoriously combative rhetoric. 03-present. Ruling Party - Justice and Development Party Population - 73 million Lost an ally in Egypt's MB Demands Israel remove blockade on Gaza before normalized relations - poor relations will exclude Ankara from negotiations with Cyprus and Greece over Med. energy development Kurdistan Regional Govt fragmenting - US has opposed pipeline Syrian jihadists recruiting poor Southeastern Turks Erdogan will run for Pres in 2014, but seeing competition from current pres Abdullah Gul Turkey knows US and Iran are moving towards negotiations, so is stressing it is not interested in antagonistic relationships with Iraq or Iran. Will not push on products such as independent pipelines w Kurds. Is Russia's second largest energy consumer, but is trying to find alternative suppliers. Azerbaijan can help out moderately, but only Iran has potential to seriously compete w. Russian influence. Previously had a large, conscripted army. The second largest military among NATO members. Its geography has necessitated a robust military. In 1952, it became a member of NATO, serving as the southwestern bulwark against Communism. Established mandatory service for all Turkish men - This has continued to this day. But short-term conscripts make up the largest bulk of the armed forces. So Turkish military has a small profesional core augmented by lightly trained forces. Times have changed. Where before it feared a Soviet groudn invasion, it now deals w domestic terrorism and Kurdish insurgents. A smaller, more agile professional force alongside paramilitary forces, are best. For decades, the Turkish military was guardian of the Kemalist principles upon which the country was founded. Maintaining a large standing army helped the military extend influence into state. But the rise of the Justice and Development Party undermined military. Once invulnerable generals are in jail. Pres elections in 2014, general elections in 2015. Limiting conscription will boost support for AKP. Part of a general pattern - military's are being reconfigured to be smaller, better-trained, and more expensive per capita. Smaller military is not necessary a cheaper military. Has very little oil reserves - imports almost all. TPAO - gas and oil company Important transit company btw former Soviet Union, Middle East, and Europe Turkish Straits/Bosporus links Black Sea to Med. Produces tons of coal, but imports much more. Weapons and ammo from Turkey to Syrian rebels has been cut off for fears of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant. In support of Iran negotiations, Turkey is making the US make a concession or two. Ankara has already burnt bridges w the Assad regime by supporting rebels, and is on shaky ground w Baghdad over pipeline being built btw Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan against Baghdad's will. Wants the US to ignore the completion of the pipeline, so that Turkey can get the oil and influence in Kurdistan that will translate into Kurdish votes during elections. But Washington is not looking to undermine Iran's ally or central authority in Iraq itself. Other bargaining point is Armenia. Turkey wants to normalize relations, and is trying to initiate this by reopening a railway between the two. Wants US to play an active tole in mediation. This would allow Turkey to deepen its foothold in the Caucusus against Russia and Persia. But US does not want a distraction/sticking point w Russia in the midst of negotiations w Iran. Wants to become a regional energy corridor for oil and gas flowing from Russia, the Caspian Basin, Central Asia, and the Middle East to the large consumer market in Europe. But its domestic demand makes it a huge net importer. Coal makes up 26% of Turkey's energy consumption, and domestic coal production falls short of demand. Imports huge quantities from Australia, Columbia, US, Russia, and South Africa. Natural gas is largest share of energy, and is rising. Most industry estimates see Turkey doubling its electricity consumption over the next decade. Only second to China in growing demand for electricity and gas for its power generation. Russia supplies 60% of gas, and it will grow. Iran provides 20%. Both are historical and regional rivals, and it depends on them. Unnerving. Turkey is Russia's second-largest energy customer. Along with huge amounts of gas, also coal and oil. Blue Stream Pipeline, which runs beneath the Black Sea, and another pipeline running from Ukraine, Romania, and Bulgaria before reaching Turkey's large population centers in Istanbul. Russia expects Turkey will soon pass Germany as largest energy client. Turkey wants cheaper prices from Russia, but Russia knows it is the only reliable and cost-effective option to provide large volumes of gas. Turkey cannot function without Russian gas. Plans to build 23 nuclear power plants by 2023 - Russia jumped to be first contract, hoping to be the primary supplier of nuclear fuel (Mersin, Mediterranean coast). Russia also trying to build natural gas storage facilities in Turkey. Storage facilities are among the most strategic energy assets Russia has pursued across Europe to maintain leverage on Continent Turkey remained neutral to both Nabucco and South Stream. Original Nabucco pipeline was downsized to Nabucco West, but would have excluded Russia to carry gas from Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Iran, Iraq, and Egypt to Europe. Nabucco West would have relied on Shah Deniz gas field in Azerbaijan. While West was costly and would flow to Central Europe, Trans-Adriatic Pipeline was cheap and crossed the Adriatic to Iraly. Smaller volume and end consumers of TAP were far less threatening to Russia (Nabucco would have supplied Central Europe). No coincidence that Russia, right before selection, allowed Azerbaijan's SOCAR to win rights to Greek natural gas transit firm DEFSA by withdrawing. Growing Azerbaijani-Russian energy cooperation. The heavier Russian presence in Caucasus, the more dependent Turkey is on Russia. Russia wants to be the middle man for transport of Central Asian energy to Europe - will pressure Turkmenistan to forgo pipeline through Caspian and Turkey to Europe. In the Middle East, focusing on Kurdistan. Kurdistan Regional Govt is desperate to export oil and gas against the wishes of Baghdad. Turkey under the AKP is using Kurdish dependence on Turkey for energy market as its containment policy. Hopes closer relationship w Iraqi Kurds will facilitate peace negotiations with Kurds in Turkey. But Kurds are internally fractured in Iraq. Nevertheless the pipeline is already in an advanced stage and investors are pressuring Ankara to see it through. Iran will oppose any undermining of Shia govt in Baghdad, and US wont want Turkish pipeline to incite sectarian warfare Already exists a Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline, but it is operating at a fifth of its capacity due to bombings. Tabriz-Ankara pipeline supplies Turkey w Iranian gas. But Iranian energy is unreliable due to infrastructure and logistical constraints. Thus Russia really is only reliable supplier. If US investment can revive the industry, could be viable alternative for Turkey. In eastern Mediterranean - Israel and Cyprus trying to develop offshore natural gas, sidelining Turkey. Greece, Cyprus, and Israel all are hostile toward Turkey. Israel would like a strategic partner, so could raise option of extending underwater pipeline to connect Israeli and Cypriot fields to Turkish infrastructure to sell to Europ. But Turkey would need to find political resolution w/ Israel and Cyprus. Lebanon claims Israel is encroaching its exclusive economic zone with exploration. For now, Turkey is simply sending exploration vessels to the coast of northern cyprus and threatening to send warchips if Nicosia produces energy. Hopes to force Cyprus into settlement over northern Cyprus in exchange for guarantee that Turkey will not interfere w/ energy production. Eastern Med. energy situation is too difficult and complex for Turkey to get involved in anyways. Has been searing for energy in the Black Sea and for shale gas potential in Anatolian basin (southeast, border w/ Iraq and Syria) and Thrace basin (northwest, part attached to Europe). But Turkey has been searching for Black Sea energy since 1970, with little reward. Investors are more interested in Romania's black sea coast. But some supermajors think Turkey has huge natural gas reserves. Is seeking out Western tech and investment, so it needs to contain Kurdish military in southeast, where most of gas is. Kurdistan Workers' Party is holding off attacks to pressure gov to offer concessions, but govt is contrained due to elections in 2014 Has two LNG import terminals- Marmara and Aliaga. US entry into LNG exports and gas production in North Africa could be potential diversification option. Already imports gas from Algeria, Nigeria, and Qatar, and smaller amounts from Norway and Egypt. Considering building two more LNG terminals near Dardanelles and at Iskenderun. But would have to invest substantial capital into regasification, as well as storage facilities. Ankara's need to keep up with energy consumption demands will prevent it from becoming energy nerve center and charting an independent foreign policy. Interests are more aligned with Iran than Saudis. Both face problems of Kurdish separatism, and Iran's market and energy exports could help Turkey diversify from Russia. Earlier in 2013, US pressured netanyahu to apologize for the flotilla deaths, and to compensate the families of those killed. Turkey shares Israel's fear of jihadists in Syria. Turkey's regional dynamics quickly changed when the Arab Spring Islamist governments failed. It was hoping that islamists would take over in Egypt, Jordan, and the Palestinian territories. Hamas has declined and MB in Egypt was overthrown. Flotilla raid 2010 - Israel raided six ships bringing aid to Gaza. 10 were killed. Ships were detained in Israel. Was in international waters. Had set off from Cyprus. The MV Marmara held somewhat radical activists, who fought the Israelies. Seeking to normalize relations with Armenia and strengthen cooperation with Georgia and Azerbaijan. Also seeks to diversify its energy. Must guard essential shipping lanes, so must maintain a presence in the Black Sea. Cannot normalize relations until Armenia and Azerbaijan resolve Nagorno-Karabakh. Russian navy's ability to project power in the eastern Mediterranean through places like Cyprus depends on Turkey's consent for Russian vessels to pass the Bosporus strait. The 1936 Montreux Convention guarantees Russian ships access to the strait, although Turkey is flexibly applying the Convention's rules, highlighted by the US deploying ships to the Black Sea during the Russian Georgian war in 2008. Normalizing ties to the two A's will help limit Iranian penetration to the region. Energy diversification will allow Turkey to pursue a more assertive policy in the Caucusus and Black Sea. On the surface, Turkey appears to be a modern state with a political system and parties similar to Europe. But it is not a modern state, but the collapsed star of an empire. Fundamental dynamic of the Ottoman Empire was an endless struggle btw the center, and the periphery. Centrifugal forces eventually tore the empire apart. Innovation and entrepreunerialism are alien concepts, replaced by business/government relationship. Throughout the 20th century, state -run enterprises dominated, and private fortunes depended on government connections. AKP came to power in 2002 promising freedom, an end to poverty, and an an end to corruption. Coalition of Islamists and liberals. Curtailed the ability of generals and jailed those who resisted. AKP assaulted the old guard and the military. Took down and redistributed the media and telecomm empire of the Uzan family. Next targeted the media and energy empires of the Dogan family. Then cut down the industrial and retail empire of the Koc family. Challenged by the Gullen movement, a powerful religious fraternity whose global network of media outlets, schools, and commercial enterprises make it a serious player in Turkish politics. It is led by preacher Fethullah Gullen, exiled in Pennsylvania. Proposes education reforms to close private university classes. Has allies in the police, media, and judiciary. But are not alone. The AKP has made many enemies. Could band together. Anti-Erdogan coalition could win the critical Istanbul mayor position. Now the center is back to challenge the upstarts from the periphery of Turkish politics. Ergenekon - Ergenekon is the name given to an alleged clandestine, secularist ultra-nationalist organization in Turkey with possible ties to members of the country's military and security forces. The would-be group, named after Ergenekon, a mythical place located in the inaccessible valleys of the Altay Mountains, is accused of terrorism in Turkey. Alleged members have been indicted on charges of plotting to foment unrest, among other things by assassinating intellectuals, politicians, judges, military staff, and religious leaders, with the ultimate goal of toppling the incumbent government. Ergenekon is by some believed to be part of the "deep state". By April 2011, over 500 people had been taken into custody and nearly 300 formally charged with membership of what prosecutors described as "the Ergenekon terrorist organization", which they claimed had been responsible for virtually every act of political violence—and controlled every militant group—in Turkey over the last 30 years. Sledgehammer - Operation Sledgehammer is the name of an alleged Turkish secularist military coup plan which reportedly dates back to 2003, and was allegedly in response to the Islamist Justice and Development Party gaining office. Documents detailing alleged plans to bomb two Istanbul mosques and accuse Greece of shooting down a Turkish plane over the Aegean Sea. The plan allegedly was to stir up chaos and justify a military coup. The army said the plans had been discussed but only as part of a scenario-based planning exercise at a military seminar The Republican People's Party founded the country, and other parties were not allowed until the late 40's. New parties were more akin to fiefdoms, functioning as patronage systems and managing the alliances of powerful families and the state. Elections in 1950 brought the peripheral/hinterland party, the Democrat Party to power. It was led by Adnana Menderes, who challeneged the rule of the center and the patronage networks. He would be overthrown in coup in '60 and hanged. Whenever a government strayed too far from the centrist line, the military stepped in. Two other coups in 71 and 80. Each party would solidify rise to power by propping up new wealthy class of supporters. In 1980's a new party let by Turgut Ozal's Motherland Party came to power again under support from the hinterland/periphery, bringing to power the 'Anatolian Tigers', a conservative bourgeoisie. Post-modern coup in 96 forced country's first Islamist govt to resign, where military old guard again took the reigns. Whenever a government strayed too far from the central line, the military steps in. Great family fortunes amassed, including the Eczacibasis, the Kocs, the Sabancis, and the Dogans. - Turkey's largest conglomerates today. Risk of clashes between Turkey and the Syrian regime are high. Syrian air missile batteries locked onto two Turkish F-16 jets running a sortie along the border. Numerous exchanges of artillery fire, and Syrian helicopter was shot down by Turkish aircraft after it violated airspace. Erdogan has denied supplying rebels and is hunting down Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant cells. But there is plenty of evidence that the regime is sending weapons and foreign fighters across the border, especially the Free Syrian Army and the Supreme Military Council. Also allies with the Syrian Turkmen Brigade, a small population of ethnic turks looking to fight the regime and establish a democratic govt. ISIL has been moving closer to the Turkish border crossings. As such, the Turks have toned down their demands for Bashar's ouster and have increased monitoring at the borders.. Has moved towards involving Iran in a stability negotiation to prevent the complete overthrow of the regime. Having committed itself publically to the demise of Al Assad, Ankara would like to avoid the humiliation of seeing him stay in power, especially as his government would seek revenge for Turkish support for the rebels. Ankara has been keeping close networks with more moderate rebel groups to play them off jihadists and kurdish groups. In the meantime, balancing btw Western nonlethal aid support to rebels and the more provocative GCC shipments of weapons and fighters. In 2014, Turkey will look to balance against Iran. Key to this will be northern Iraq, where it will make energy deals with the Kurdistan Regional Govt, while Iran will consolidate its power with the Shiites in Baghdad. Iraq will use Washington and Iran to pressure Turkey to respect its sovereignty. Erdogan will face strong opposition amongst Republican Peoples Party, Gulen Movement, and members of the business elite. Local and presidential elections this year. Govt will be too constrained to aggree to amnesty agreements with the Kurds. The Kurdistan Workers' Party will grow frustrated and could create large public demonstrations and potentially terrorist attacks. Turkey will continue negotiations with Armenia and Cyprus, but breakthrough is unlikely. Will quietly build up relationship with Israel. Trying to use interest rates as a weapon to defend Turkey's currency, the Lira. Is designed to jolt investor interest, but a continuing political crisis is eroding investor confidence. There has been capital flight partly due to the US Federal Reserve's tapering of stimulus measures, limiting Turkey's access to cheap liquidity. So now Turkey is desperately trying to stabilize the Lira. Is only going to intensify in the lead-up to local elections in March, presidential elections in August and parliamentary elections in 2015. Government has been trying to prevent raising interest rates, which it feared would hurt growth. Erdogan does not want to make any economic moves that could hurt the country's economy before elections, which could hurt his party's chances. Erdogan has declared war against an 'interest rate lobby'. He is very distrustful of high interest rates. This is because the defining moment of Erdogan's career was the '97 military coup that resulted in the ousting of the Welfare Party, which was the predecessor to the Justice and Development Party. At this time, Erdogan was sentenced to jail for 10 months for criticizing the military - at this time he was mayor of Istanbul. This was also a very volatile period for the Turkish economy, with the country facing chronic double-digit inflation and staggeringly high interest rates on foreign loans to cover a soaring budget deficit. Erdogan accused the traditional secular elite bank owners of profiting from the crisis. So when he came to power in 2002, he was determined to write off debt, contain inflation, and raise a new economic elite. His actions now are related to his paranoia of a similar economic situation now leading to the empowerment of his adversaries. His new economic elite is being targeted by former allies in corruption probes. The Gulen movement is determined to cut down Erdogan's power. Ultimately, Erdogan is fearful that the Gulen movement will form a quiet alliance with the old secular elite to fracture the ruling elite. Combination of economic downturn and political transition has produced a crisis. The AKP itself came into power in the wake of a 2001 banking crisis. Erdogan worked quickly to aid a new class of corporate loyalists, sidelining the traditional secular elite. Turkey became heavily reliant on outside investment to finance a hefty energy import bill. Turkish central bank is trying to ease foreign investment fears.

Thailand

Bangkok 67 Million PM Yingluck Shinawatra - Elected in 2011. Hot, only 45. Pheu Thai Party. Thaksin was her brother. Rejected demands of antigovernment protesters, who seek to topple her govt/parliament and replace it with a 'people's council' Only country in southeast Asia to escape colonial rule The East Asian financial crisis led to public disillusionment with free market policies, leading to the rise of Thaksin, a populist reviled by urban elites and loved by poor rural folks. Mostly Buddhist Opposition leader Suthep Thaugsuban. Democrat Party. 'Yellow Shirts' Protests triggered by an amnesty bill, which opponents fear will allow Thaksin Shinawatra to return to the country. Would pardon ppl involved in corruption. Since 2006, Red Shirts and Yellow Shirts have used mass protests to eject the other side from power Pits Bangkok's urban population against the rural supporters of the Shinawatras Anti-Thaksin coalition led from 2007-11, supported by military, before losing to Yingluck Thaksin was removed in a 2006 military coup. Is a lightning rod in politics. Business tycoon. founded the populist Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party in 1998 and became Prime Minister of Thailand from 2001 until 2006. He was convicted by the Supreme Court of abusing his power to help his wife buy public land at an auction, and was sentenced to two years in jail. Various criminal charges await him if he returns to Thailand. In 2008, anti-Thaksin protesters occupied capital's two airports for a week after occupying PM's office for three months. Thailand is the second largest net oil importer in Southeast Asia behind Singapore. Thailand's steadily growing electricity generation is highly dependent on natural gas, so the government is seeking ways to diversify fuel sources to include more renewable energy and potentially nuclear capacity in the long-term. 24 - natural gas 35 - oil 23 - coal Yingluck called for dissolution of parliament and new elections to be held in February. Opposition Democrat Party resigned from Parliament. Elections would most likely bring the Pheu Thai party back to power. Her brother used the same tactic when he faced opposition, as new elections allow renewed mandate to pass legislation. Thaugsuban claims elections are insufficient. Pheu Thai would look to pass new laws to remove the institutional checks that hinder it. Could reshape the Senate to be fully elected and bring in a wider range of candidates. Could draft less intense amnesty law. Or could broaden base of support with subsidies for farmers and families. A loss for Democrat Party would again expose them as a minority incapable of winning broad national support, leading them to return to their plan of obstruction. When Pheu Thai came to power in 2011, it kept the country stable for two years - impressive after bloody protests and political showdown in 2010. King Bhumibol Adulyadej (46-present) He is the world's longest serving head of state. Impending royal succession as King is about to die. Military is aware of the danger to its interests and will refuse to interfere until it deems its interests threatened. Opposition is planning to hold mass protests to shut down Bangkok. Wants to create People's Democratic Reform Committee, which would oversee a transition to new national govt appointed by King Bhumibol Adulyadej. Fears Yingluck will change the constitution and allow Thaksin to return from exile. Opposition will likely create an environment of uncertainty and disorder, making Yingluck's caretaker govt look ineffective and oppressive ahead of elections. Claims it will abstain from the elections to deprive Pheu Thai of any real victory. Thai Constitutional Court overturned Pheu Thai amendments to constitution, and National Anti-Corruption Commission impeached 308 Pheu Thai lawmakers for their amnesty bill. Royal Thai Army has changed its tone in willingness to carry out coup. Military is decisive actor in Thai politics - has staged 19 coups since 1932, most recently in 2006, when it overthrew Thaksin. Since this 2006 incident was seen as detrimental to the military's prestige and the country's stability, the military has attempted to play a subtler role in influencing politics, and has repeatedly denied direct involvement. Has continued neutrality by supporting Feb 2nd elections and distancing itself from Thaugsuban and his People's Democratic Reform Committee. But said that the door to a coup was neither closed or open, shifting large numbers of units to the city (which they did before the 2006 coup). Military is largely royalist. May be intended as a warning against the govt to refrain from excessive force against protestors by calling on its own supporters - the Red Shirts, who have occupied parts of the city in bloody protests in the past. Wants the Red Shirts to hold their protests in their own provinces, rather than Bangkok. Pheu Thai party's base is in North and north-east. Has a minority Muslim, ethnic Malay population in its southern provinces. Separatist struggles There have been frequent military border clashes with Cambodians over several disputed areas. The current political tensions could prevent it from benefitting from emerging economies in southeast Asia. Its skilled labor force has placed it among the world's leading manufacturers of auto parts and electronics. Huge influx of Japanese FDI. But Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam all have higher investment growth Ultimately wants to become a regional trade hub connecting Southeast Asian nations to China. Thailand's ambition was endorsed by Beijing, which wants to extend its reach into Southeast Asia. Over the past two years, China has revived a few key infrastructure projects, including a high-speed railway connecting its southwestern regions to Laos and Thailand, through which it hopes to connect farther into the Malay Peninsula. Other projects include roads connecting Myanmar and Thailand Has issued 60 day state of emergency, as opposition seeks to postpone or stop elections on Feb 2nd. Outlaws gatherings of more than 5 people, curtails media, and imposes curfews. 'Bangkok Shutdown' plan. Opposition wants the unelected council to take over. Calling for investigation into the govts controversial rice subsidy scheme. The decree in some ways requires the military to support the regime. Protests are somewhat dying down. The govt accuses allegations that the Red Shirts are attacking protesters as a conspiracy to induce the military to step in. Military said the Red Shirts, who are allied with the Pheu Thai government, were considering insurgency tactics if the military or other agencies forced a delay of the elections. But rice farmers, one of the pillars of pheu Thai support are upset with govt policies. Thailand used to be the bulwark of American power in southeast Asia. Anti-Communist state that was easy to govern because of rich agricultural heartland protected absence, and lacking ethnic and sectarian tensions. King Bhumibol Adulyadej's power base came from the Royal Thai Army, noble families and bureaucratic elite. The military controlled state corporations. Rice farming was the base of the economy. Peasant farmers revered the King, who provided infrastructural funds and development aid. Is the oldest US ally in the region, and served as basing for Vietnam war. Originated in the 1200's, when the Siamese migrated from southern China, and held off enemies in Burma and Khmer. Has never been colonized, unlike the rest of Indochina. Collaborated with the Japanese before switching to the US side in WW2. Established a constitutional monarchy after a military intervention in 1932, and have retained it despite numerous coups. Has a unified ethnic makeup. Buddhist. Strong service sector. Public's rejection of a military junta in 1992 led to new political trend, where military lost its former dominance, and a new corporate elite emerged. Thaksin had a formidable political base: a combination of the entrepreneurial nouveau riche, a new wave of nationalists who rejected Western economic encroachment in the form of unbridled capital flows and the International Monetary Fund, and a rural peasantry laboring with low incomes and inadequate social services. For peasants and small-business owners, Thaksin promised to reassert Thailand's ancient independent by redistributing wealth away from the Bangkok elite, who had pandered to the West. Thaksin demanded cheap healthcare, cheap loans and other rural subsidies -- in other words, he practiced cash populism. The opposition Democrat Party represents the old noble and elite families, and much of the military and bureaucratic elites, with their center of power in Bangkok (represents the old Cold War regime). Pheu Thai dominates the north and north east. Democrats dominate the capital and the peninsular south. Democrats have not won at the booth since Thaksin, and have only held power with the military's help. Thaksin has looked to remove checks and balances from the country's constitution. The king is about to die. His son Vajiralongkorn, the crown prince, is in line to succeed him - but he is more of a playboy. Some hope that the crown prince will be passed over in favor of the king's daughter, Sirindhorn, who seems more capable. A stable Thailand is a market for Chinese business and a critical juncture for its regional infrastructure plans. The US needs a strong and unified southeast asia to counter China. Instability in Thailand could spread across the region, which is very politically unstable at the moment. Combination of economic crisis and political transition has proved troublesome. Economy is not struggling as bad as the others, and still has huge foreign currency reserves. Elections on Feb 2 were controversial - widespread boycott, demonstrations, violence. Pheu Thai likely won, despite two months of protests and anger amongst farmers (their support base) over rice subsidy plan. The Election Commission has made clear the official results will not be announced until another round of voting to compensate for disruptions is held. This round has been delayed until Feb. 23 at the soonest, though the Election Commission appears to have left ultimate responsibility for the date in the hands of the government. Opposition seeking to challenge elections - One such legal challenge could center around the legal requirement that 95 percent of the parliament be settled within 30 days of polling. The inconclusive polls in the south could threaten this requirement. They want the results nullified as unconstitutional. When this challenge was posed in 2006, the military took over in a coup. Meanwhile, pending charge against 308 Pheu Thai politicians for trying to amend the constitution to make the Senate fully elected. (In the current state, 74 of 150 Senate members are appointed while the rest are elected.) With the potential for the election to be nullified, there is fear that Pheu Thai will bring out its red shirts to counter judicial moves. The country's traditional political economy -- a ruling elite centered in Bangkok -- is reaching the end of its ability to accommodate the country's rapidly changing political landscape as Thailand's rural population gains political influence. The rural masses have the numerical advantage at the polls, but the traditional elites maintain control of bureaucratic institutions, the judiciary and the military. Neither elections nor populist movements on the streets will break the impasse until both sides feel the need to seek a broader reconciliation.

Cote D'Ivoire

Currently hosts permanent French military forces

Rwanda

Kigali 1994 genocide under Hutu government Ended support for M23, which had provided vehicles, weapons, equipment, and special operation forces, after intense international pressure. Western states had cut aid to Rwanda. Loss of M23 minimizes access to smuggled minerals from east Congo. Worried about Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda, Hutu militia that sought refuge across border after 94 genocide and end of govt.

New Caledonia

New Caledonia - Off East Coast of Australia. Was a French penal colony.

Nuclear Triad

Refers to a nuclear arsenal which consists of three components, traditionally strategic bombers, intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). The purpose of having a three-branched nuclear capability is to significantly reduce the possibility that an enemy could destroy all of a nation's nuclear forces in a first-strike attack; this, in turn, ensures a credible threat of a second strike, and thus increases a nation's nuclear deterrence

Customs Union

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Western Sahara

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Slovenia

Balkans have been plagued by Habsburg Austrian-influenced north and a Third World Ottoman Turkish-influenced south Deepest integration w Habsburg Empire Joined EU a decade ago. Was always the most economically and socially developed country in Yugoslavia. But was still far behind Austria and other Central European communist countries. Banking crisis - has progressed too far, too fast Tried blocking Croatia's EU entry - a legacy of Yugoslavia's break up which ended w border disputes btw the two states

Chad

N'djamena Currently hosts permanent French military forces Chad Civil War ( 1978-1987 Chadian-Libyan conflict - Chadian Civil War began spreading to the north. The conflict was marked by a series of four separate Libyan interventions in Chad, taking place in 1978, 1979, 1980-1981 and 1983-1987. In all of these occasions Gaddafi had the support of a number of factions participating in the civil war, while Libya's opponents found the support of the French government, which intervened militarily to save the Chadian government in 1978, 1983 and 1986. The pattern of the war delineated itself in 1978, with the Libyans providing armour, artillery and air support and their Chadian allies the infantry, which assumed the bulk of the scouting and fighting. This pattern was radically changed in 1986, towards the end of the war, when all Chadian forces united in opposing the Libyan occupation of northern Chad with a degree of unity that had never been seen before in Chad. What followed was the Toyota War, in which the Libyan forces were routed and expelled from Chad, putting an end to the conflict. Gaddafi initially intended to annex the Aouzou Strip, the northernmost part of Chad, which he claimed as part of Libya on the grounds of an unratified treaty of the colonial period. In 1972 his goals became, in the evaluation of historian Mario Azevedo, the creation of a client state in Libya's "underbelly", an Islamic republic modelled after his jamahiriya, that would maintain close ties with Libya, and secure his control over the Aouzou Strip; expulsion of the French from the region; and use of Chad as a base to expand his influence in Central Africa

Singapore

People's Action Party - has ruled for 50 years. PM Lee Hsien Loong (04-present). Lee Kuan Yew (59-90)-Raised standard of living and quality of life from third world to one of the wealthiest countries from 60's to 90's Goh Chok Tong (90-04) Singapore owes much of its economic success to liberal immigration policies. The island is densely populated and fertility rate is low. With one of the highest life expectancies in the world and an aging population, the labor pool is being constricted. Elderly will vastly outnumber the working age population in 20 years. Thus immigration reform continues to be Singapores most viable solution for addressing the long-term labor issues, much to the chagrin of the public. The population is very heterogeneous, so even minor changes can upset the ethnic balance. Ethnic Chinese make up 75% of the population. Percentage of Indian nationals is growing, now at 9%. After gaining independence in the 60s, the govt restricted immigration. It reopened in the 80's to meet rising labor demand and fuel industrialization. Is now considering restricting again. Most recent influx brought in low-skilled laborers (70%) from India, Southeast Asia, and China. They have lower incomes and fewer benefits. Recent riots by foreign nationals. Public blames these workers for rising property prices and more competitive job market. In fact, anger over immigration led to the People's Action Party recording its worst ever performance in 50 years. Temporarily tightened requirements to appease voters, but concerns over labor shortages, frustrated investors trumped public sentiment and the gov reversed its regulations. Singapore's strategic location between the Indian and Pacific Oceans has allowed it to become one of Asia's major petrochemical and refining hubs. Malaysia and Indonesia currently supply all of the country's natural gas. The government is building a terminal to import liquefied natural gas and diversify its supply. Huge refining sector, but must import all its crude.

Mexico

Capital - Mexico City 120 million Pres. Enrique Pena Nieto 20012-present. Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI). PRI has rulled for most of the 20th century, with the exception of 12 years under the National Action Party Imports great deal of natural gas from the US Oil - 8, Gas - 18, Coal - 25. Felipe Calderon (06-12) PAN Vicente Fox (00-06) PAN Opposition - PRD (Democratic Revolutionary Party) Los Zetas (Lost top leader, Z-40) v. Gulf Cartel (lost its most powerful leader El Pelon)- In 2012 Velazquez faction betrayed Zetas to join Gulf Knights Templar (Gulf ally) v. Cartel de Jalisca Nueva Generacion Sinaloa Federation (Gulf ally) Trend throughout year has been for federal government to become increasingly concerned w the instability in the western state of Michoacan. Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion (based out of Jalisco state) have fought the Knights Templar of Michoacan. Has also led to the emergence of community vigilante groups to defend people. Violence was contained to the interior until recently Knights Templar attacked electricity grid near critical port. Until this point, Mexican crime avoided targeting government-owned infrastructure. So mexico sent in the military. Port Lazaro Cardenas is one of Mexico's most important ports. Largest by voilume and fastest growing port in all of North America. Import hub for Chinese goods and materials, and for exporting to Asia and Pacific US. NAFTA railway connects teh port to manufacturing core in central Mexico and on to US through Laredo border crossing. Only port deep enough to handle post-Panamax vessels after Canal expansion. Petroleos Mexicanos Paired landmark energy and political bills. PRI needs PAN as a partner to pass reform through legislature. The opposition PRD is opposed to energy reform bc it would change the ownership of energy deposits, which are currently guaranteed to the state by the Constitution. Made production-sharing agreement contracts (the international norm) impossible bc they require investing company claim part ownership of the reserves. No chance of Pemex being privatized, and national electric company CFE will also remain public. Success of reforms will depend on ability to attract foreign investment and technology to explore offshore and unconcential onshore sites. Mexico's energy sector has been on the decline for decades, but relies heavily on oil for its national budget. Political bill will be equally important. Were PAN's condition for cooperating with PRI's energy reform. Permits lawmakers to serve two terms in office, and gives strength to election authority and federal investigative body. Addresses structural issues that have historically stymied the political system. Will reduce political corruption. Under current laws, politicians cannot seek a second term, and are thus lame ducks the moment they enter office, and because they never have to face voters, there is no mechanism for holding them accountable. 2014 will bring about secondary legislation to increase competition into two sectors that have long been monopolized - energy and telecommunications. The President will continue to push for the creation of a new national gendarme and consolidating public security under single, highly-centralized command structure in each state. Will have to continue his predecessor's policy of using the military to hunt down criminal leaders. Michoacan state has seen large numbers of self-defense groups. The self-defense militias have been expanding into a coordinated body and now operate in more than a dozen municipalities. Their primary goal is to combat the Knights Templar, the dominant criminal group in the state, while taking charge of public security in each town they enter, at times by disarming local police. It is an economically important state, which is home of the strategic port city of Lazaro Cardenas and near Mexico's political and economic core. The Mexican army was then deployed to disarm the militia members, but many refused to surrender their weapons, resulting in firing on civilians. The focus of the militia operations has evolved from combatting established organized crime elements to supplanting government authority in public security matters. Government has long sought to keep control in the restive rural areas. The government in Mexico City has long been concerned about the threat of insurrections in regions outside the capital, where the lawless environment has enabled militant groups to challenge the government at various times in the country's history. This is, in part, why Mexican military doctrine focuses almost entirely on the country's interior. And since before the Mexican revolution, the government has encouraged residents in rural communities to maintain the rule of law by forming militias known as the rural guard, which have operated as auxiliaries to the military. But these groups are unwilling to bend to government authority. Govt does not want anything to threaten operations at the port of Lazaro Cardenas

Kenya

Capital - Nairobi 43 Million Uhuru Kenyatta - Pres since 2013. Wanted by ICC for inciting violence in 2007 election. Father was Jomo. KANU/PNU Jomo Kenyatta - Leader of Kenya from 63 (independence) to 78. Founding father of nation, considered a Pan-Africanist. Established dictatorial powers for Pres. Kenya African National Union (KANU) Daniel arap Moi - 2nd pres of Kenya from 78-2002. Followed in Jomo's footsteps. Strongly anti-communist. West supported them against Communist Ethiopia and Tanzania. After Cold War, he was regarded as a despot. Mwai Kibaki - 3rd Pres. 2002-13. Won in 2002 against Uhuru Kenyatta. Kibaki was re-elected in controversial circumstances in 2007 after beating prominent opposition leader Raila Odinga. PNU - Party of National Unity (Coalition) 50 years of independence - 63 Former British Colony Mau Mau Uprising - 52-60. Dedan Kimathi, the rebel leader, was captured and the uprising ended. 20,000 killed. Initiated by Kikuyu ethnic group, the largest group in Kenya (23%) Kenya is calling for all of Africa to withdraw from International Criminal Court Economic core is located near Lake Victoria and Athi basins (Nairobi and Mombassa). Sparse population along coast and in North. Kenya's nucleus lies in its western highlands Major water aquifers discovered in Turkana desert Poised to take China's place as low-end manufacturing hub Major transport and pipeline networks from Indian ocean westward into Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, and potentially South Sudan. Unlike Angola, financing and tech must come from Chinese and Japanese. Copper and cobalt from eastern DRC and hydrocarbons from South Sudan Trying to interest Chinese to build port from Lamu to South Sudan Northern corridor - connects Mombasa port to Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundu, as well as Ituri province of DRC. Remnant of British colony, which sought to link Great Lakes to Kenyan coast. Competing for foreign investment and economic development w Tanzania. Heavier traffic and more active. Tanzania is trying to establish itself as a credible alternative to Kenya. Passes through the most economically active area in East Africa - agricultural land north of Lake Victoria. Most traffic is road based. Main rail connection must be refurbished, bc it is unreliable and beset by delays. Could be useful for major iron ore mining in Mount Kodo in DRC's Ituri province. Will require its own heavy haul railroad and export terminal - wont be completed in the next decade. But major gold mining in Ituri - high grade. Would be forced to move industrial products and manufacturing products inland due to population away from coast. Attractive bc of its low cost of operations - large, cheap and stable workforces. But current transportation inadequacy cancels out gains. Is planning on building a standard gauge railway by 2018. Unlike Tanzania, Kenya has already begun the process w investment from Chinese. New Lamu Port for new link to South Sudan and Ethiopia (located on northern coast)- would take strain away from Mombasa. Would allow transport diversification, and would ease pressure on port of Mombasa. Hefty price, Kenya trying to entice China, Japan, and Europe to fund it. Mombasa is currently in same overwhelmed state as Dar es Salaam, although delays are less costly. And Mombasa can handle more cargo. Cannot accomodate large, post-Panamax ships. Lamu would be able to handle bigger ships. Lamu would focus on bulk cargoes, while Mombasa would take containers (Lamu would free up space for more containers). Only functioning pipeline system in East Africa. Ships from Mombassa refinery to inland Kenya. But there are plans to build a new section to Uganda. Would lower Kampala's fuel costs considerably, since the country depends on fuel trucked in from Kneya. A further spur could be added to Rwanda. Yet Uganda plans to construct its own refinery More ambitious plan is oil pipeline from Lamu Port to S. Sudan/Ethiopia. Primary purpose would be to give Juba an alternative energy option. No funding yet. Would be serviced by new refinery in Lamu, and would extend to Ethiopia. If built, would likely extend to recent oil finds in Uganda. Does not produce or hold any proven hydrocarbons, but plays a critical transit role. Most oil is imported from Gulf. Relies on trucking to export this then refined oil to neighboring countries. Kenya is the regional export and financial hub -- the gateway into East Africa Has by far the most developed financial and banking system. Uganda is Kenya's largest export partner, receiving more goods and commodities from its neighbor than to the rest of the bloc combined. East African Community - Common currency - Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi. One of the steps towards forming a unified East African Federation. Currency makes sense especially for Kenya and Uganda. Kenya is the dominant exporter, Uganda is the dominant importer. Uganda and Tanzania have the potential to be large gas and oil producers, which could lead to FDI dramatically appreciating the country's currency (Dutch disease). Common currency would mitigate these risks. But a single currency makes it difficult for individual countries to deal w their own problems, since monetary policy will become responsibility of the East African Central Bank. East African monetary union will be slow to develop over 10 years asa its member states harmonize their financial systems and institute necessary reforms. The heart of the EAC is the relationship btw Uganda and Kenya - Cores of the two countries are adjacent. Kenya's nucleus lies in its western highlands, while Uganda's lies on the northern shores of Lake Victoria. The two nations are thus linked an form a somewhat unified economy. Two countries complement each other - Uganda's traditional economy is agricultural, while Kenya strives to be the region's industrial and manufacturing hub. The EAC's other members are only an extension of this relationship.Uganda is Kenya's largest export partner, receiving more goods and commodities from its neighbor than to the rest of the bloc combined. Will only grow as infrastructure improves. Not to mention Uganda will begin exporting oil and gas to Kenya.

North Korea

Capital - Pyongyang DPRK Kim Jong Un - Supreme Leader. Youngest son of Jong-Il Ruling - Workers' Party. It is the only legal party in North Korea; two other parties nominally exist, but are completely subservient to the WPK. Kim Il-sung (1948-1994). 'The Eternal President', 'The Great Leader'. Began Korean War Kim Jong-il (beginning in 1997, when he officially took over as General Secretary until his death in 2011) Long term security requires unification w/ south, but would threaten elite's hold on power. Very wary of Libya's situation - Gave up WMD's, accepted internationally, then leadership ousted by US & EU. In reality, it's biggest fear is China Good deal of coal resources Dismissed his influential uncle, Jang Song Thaek, from his post as #2 most powerful figure. Is married to his aunt. He was believed to be the power behind the throne, and de-facto led the country in the years preceding Kim Jong Il's death. Had worked to ensure the young and untested son of Kim Jong Il took over power with his father's death. Was widely seen as an advocate of economic reform, and was previously purged from power in 2004, but was reinstated two years later. Was executed for crimes against the state, followed by a purge. Jang was effectively the regent to China, and was in charge of keeping Kim Jong Un in line. While N. Korea depends on China, it does not want to be subservient, and Jang's execution was meant to purge those who allied too closely to China than to the interests of the state and ruling elite. The older generation (Kim Jong Il's year) will suffer, while the rising generation will gain. It is suspected that Pyongyang will launch a missile or make a publicized move in order to undermine the Chinese and emphasize that Kim Jong Un is in charge. Wants to appear threatening to prevent others from sensing an opportunity to take advantage of internal weaknesses. China depended on Jang as their inside point of contact, and Beijing has moved more troops to the border. But Jang fell from grace not by attempting a coup, but as a result of Kim consolidating power. Jang was the figure most likely to challenge Kim. He had supported an active role in furthering Chinese activity in N. Korea's opening. Was a strong supporter of special economic zones and schemes to bring in FDI and increase exports. Kim is dismantling Jang's patronage network and prompted a new campaign of propaganda and 're-education' on loyalty to the supreme leader. Under Kim, the Workers' Party has been elevated to balance the military, which had become too powerful under the military first policy. Kim has appointed positions to party members instead of soldiers, has reemphasized party supremacy, and has worked to oust the military from economic spheres. Also has moved the country towards economic opening. Wants to raise economic development to the same importance as missile and nuclear weapon programs. Working to improve road, rail, adn port improvements on the Chinese and Russian borders. Hong Kong, Taiwan, Russia, India, Indonesia, and Mongolia are looking to invest in Pyongyang. Kim Il Sung's 'Juche' philosophy of isolation was based on centuries of invasion from outside forces. His new self-dependency shut out the outside world and provided hope for the people. Kim Jong Il's reign was first dynastic handover in a communist state. River separates China and N korea Songun policy - military first. Prioritizes the Korean People's Army in the affairs of state and allocates national resources to the army first. Songun elevates the Korean People's Army within North Korea as an organization and as a state function, granting it the primary position in the North Korean government and society. It guides domestic policy and international interactions. Grants the Korean People's Army the highest economic and resource-allocation priority, and positions it as the model for society to emulate Arirang Games - artistic performance representing splitting up of Korea. North Korea has threatened military steps, at a time when US and S. Korean forces are about to carry out annual military exercises. Spread leaflets over South Korean island threatening bombardment. North Korea's military is reasserting its power, and may resume long-range missile testing and nuclear testing. Pyongyang uses provacative actions to remind its neighbors that interference in its internal political affairs can have extreme and unwanted consequences. Uses threateneing actions to claim self-reliance and raise tensions before seeking negotations. May be looking to restart dialogue in recent months, and seeking aid and foreign investment, to wean itself from overdependence on China. Has already sought renegotiations with Seoul over expanding the joint Kaesong inter-Korean economic zone. Wants to signal that all is well at home. Wants to prevent the US, Japan, and Seaoul from threatening the North with military actions, cutting off aid, or ignoring the country. Kaesong inter-Korean economic zone/Industrial Zone. Collaborative economic development. The park is located ten kilometres (six miles) north of the Korean Demilitarized Zone, an hour's drive from Seoul, with direct road and rail access to South Korea. The park allows South Korean companies to employ cheap labour that is educated, skilled, and fluent in Korean, whilst providing North Korea with an important source of foreign currency. 123 South Korean companies were employing approximately 53,000 DPRK workers and 800 ROK staff. At times of tension between North and South Korea, southern access to the Industrial Park has been restricted. On 3 April 2013, during the 2013 Korean crisis, North Korea blocked access to the region to all South Korean citizens. On 8 April 2013, the North Korean government removed all 53,000 North Korean workers from the Kaesong industrial park, which effectively shut down all activities. On 15 August 2013, both countries agreed that the industrial park should be reopened Jang's ouster could be a clear directive to purge officials who have allied themselves more closely with China than with the interests of the state, and a warning to China about Pyongyang's long term effort to reduce heavy reliance on China. A stable and neutral North Korean regime is the very least Beijing can accept. North Korea recalled businessmen from China's northeastern cities of Dandong and Shenyang. Jang had spearheaded investment programs along the Chinese-Korean border, including the major Rason Economic Zone. Jang was the best means of getting N. Korea to act in China's interests, by maintaining stability and undertaking a China-style economic transition. Jang was accused of selling iron ore and minerals to China at low prices, and allowing China to sign 50-year leases on land in the Rason Economic Zone. He orchestrated the Hwanggumpyong Economic Zone along the border - but Pyongyang raised barriers to Chinese businessmen operating there and Chinese withdrew. Beijing clearly anticipated Jang's purge, given his excessive personal ambition. China may have allowed the move to ensure internal stability and economic interests. China needs the Korean Peninsula under its control, as a strategic buffer from which foreign threats have always invaded. Has long been concerned about instability in its eastern neighbor sparked by succession crisis or economic turmoil. China prefers a regime with its leadership consolidated. N. Korea depends on trade with CHina (over 90%). Worried that the country could pursue nuclearization and unify with Seoul, posing a nuclear threat right next door. Ferocious, weak and crazy - Ingenious, effective strategy. It is assumed that North Korea is planning another nuclear test. While North Korea has the GDP of a third-world country, it weilds international power. Was developed whene the Soviet union collapsed and governments assumed the Korean peninsula would unify. Regime wanted to survive, so it was terrified that outside powers would invade or support an uprising against it. Ferocious - Appeared to be on the verge of having devastating power. Originally would threaten to shell Seoul, by massing artillery along the border. Weakness - No matter how ferocious they were, there was no point in pushing them because they would collapse internally. Subtly highlighted weak economy and food insecurity and difficulty of life. Why risk unleashing ferocity when its internal weakness would bring it down. Crazy - Appearing unpredictable, with extravagant threats and seeming to welcome war. Sank South Korean ships for no reason. Best thing to do was not irritate them. Worried that pressure on them could lead them to rush to complete thier weapon and go to war at the slightest provocation. Tread lightly and persuade them not to do anything insane. North and China may be working together by timing northern provocation when China has other issues, such as the island disputes. Why should the US and Japan criticize China over the islands when it has the power to make North Korea ease up. Was a useful model that was copied by the Iranians. Brilliant strategy.

Poland

Capital - Warsaw PM Donald Tusk - Civic Platform. 2007-present. Trying to diversify natural gas suplies away from Russia Polish Oil and Gas CO - state owned Imports oil from Russia through Druzhba pipeline 80% of gas imports come from Russia. Also Germany and Norway Strongest supporter of shale gas - but dissapointing exploration Will build LNG import terminal on coast for imports from Qatar Transit state for Russian gas - Yamal and potentially Yamal II Building two nuclear reactors to diversify away from coal - second largest coal producer in Europe (consumes most of it, electricity 75% based on coal) Pres. Lech Walesa 90-95. First post-communist president and nobel peace prizewinner. He co-founded Solidarity (Solidarność), the Soviet bloc's first independent trade union Very exposed to Russia, with strong interest in Ukraine and Belarus. Has the most aggressive stance towards moscow of all Central European states. Seeking security ties with NATO and US, in the form of ballistic missile defense. Seeking to ease dependence on Russian natural gas with LNG import terminal, and by exploring shale gas supplies. 54% of gas comes from Russia. LNG import terminal will be completed in 2014

Liberia

Capital-Monrovia Only country in Africa colonized by the US. Beginning in 1820, the region was colonized by black people from the United States, most of whom were freed slaves. These immigrants established a new country with the help of the American Colonization Society, a private organization whose leaders thought former slaves would have greater opportunity in Africa. African captives freed from slave ships by the British and Americans were sent there instead of being repatriated to their countries of origin. In 1847, this new country became the Republic of Liberia, establishing a government modeled on that of the United States and naming its capital city Monrovia after James Monroe, the fifth president of the United States and a prominent supporter of the colonization. In 1980 a military coup overthrew the Americo-Liberian leadership, marking the beginning of political and economic instability and two successive civil wars. These resulted in the deaths of approximately 250,000 people and devastated the country's economy. A peace agreement in 2003 led to democratic elections in 2005. Former Pres Charles Taylor imprisoned for war crimes during Sierra Leone's civil war from '97-03. Was pushed out of power by rival militias in Guinea and Sierra Leone and eventually West African peacekeeping mission He agreed to resign in exchange for assylum in Nigeria-was then arrested anyways. Makes similar warlords resistant to seeking mediated resolutions-will cling to power until forcibly removed Pres-Ellen Johnson Sirleaf

Ivory Coast

Former President Laurent Gbagbo being tried by ICC-claims he was defending his legitimate govt against armed rebellion during civil war Small-scale plans to update links to Burkina Faso and to Niger to collect oil, natural gas and uranium

Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)

Founded by Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Singapore. Expanded to include Brunei, Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam

Foreign currency Reserves

Held by central banks and monetary authorities, usually in different reserve currencies, mostly the United States dollar, and to a lesser extent the euro, the United Kingdom pound sterling, and the Japanese yen Insurance in case economic relationship btw A&B reverses dramatically. EX if investors feel it is too risky and sell their assets in B. Sell their reserves to buy their own currency so that their $ does not suddenly devalue

Africa's Poverty

Isolation has been it's ultimate curse. Long coastline, but few natural deep-water harbors. Rivers are not navigable from interior to coast. Sahara acted as barrier to contact w/ Europe Yet exciting progress being made in East and South -- rest of continent will languish in poverty Two major networks to new scramble for interior of Africa (the edges of the DRC) -- South & East. Minor ones from West Africa and Horn of Africa

Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb

Received ransom from French for return of 4 citizens kidnapped in Niger at Areva Uranium mine. Reportedly received a year's worth of funding. Used Ansar Dine leader Iyad ag Ghali to negotiate release France, Spain, Canada, and Switzerland have all paid ransoms in the past. Wanted to bring about the Islamic Caliphate in Mali - incorporated ethnic Tuareg groups, including Ansar Dine Originated from Armed Islamic Group and the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat - Algeria in the 1990's and 2000's. Diffuse band of militants led by hierarchical command and leader Abdelmalek Droukdel (Abu Musab Abdel Wadoud) from northeastern Kabylie region of Algeria Group will most likely move to Libya and Tunisia, where local militaries are limited and foreign militaries are reluctant to intervene. France has interests in Mali, Niger, and Mauritania, but not Tunis and Tripoli. AQIM will try to incorporate local Tunisian and Libyan armed groups, like they did in Mali

Louisiana Purchase

Thomas Jefferson had warned to avoid foreign entaglements and alliances - neutrality Yet he made the Louisiana Purchase - initially only meant to buy New Orleans and sensed Napoleon would sell it to fund wars in Europe. Was surprised when he offered to sell all French possessions on the Continent for $15million. Brits were furious w/ purchase. Shortly after came war of 1812

Namibia

Windhoek Former German colony. Most of the territory became a German Imperial protectorate in 1884 and remained a German colony until the end of World War I. In 1920, the League of Nations mandated the country to South Africa, which imposed its laws and, from 1948, its apartheid policy. Walvis Bay - trying to develop connections to DRC's Katanga and Zambia's Copperbelt minerals - cobalt. Strongly limited by poor Zambian railways. Competing for one of four transport corridors

Mortgage Rates

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BRICS

Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa

Ukraine

Pres-Viktor Yanukovich Capital-Kiev Party of Regions - ruling party Naftogaz-state energy firm 46 million - population Julia Timoshenko - ex PM - jailed bc she signed natural gas deal w/ russia that was seen as unfavorable bc of pricing and conditions due to cutoff at the time. Sent to jail in politically motivated case, in 2011. She is in need of health care, and govt is considering releasing her for care in Germany Russia will only lower prices if Ukraine joins Customs Union and merges w/Gazprom Russia will engage in multi-billion dollar projects w Ukraine if they don't sign the association agreement w/ EU Nov 27th, will sign association and free trade agreement w the bloc Russia says the EU agrement will preclude Russian trade and economic ties, and enacted temporary restrictions on Ukranian goods to pressure Kiev. Energy is most important issue. Tymoshenko's gas deal was signed in 2009. Yanukovich has sought revision of agreement. But Russia has refused to lower prices unless Ukraine cedes strategic energy assets or joins Moscow's Customs Union. So Ukraine has sought to diversify away from Russia, and weaken leverage in natural gas sector. Ukraine's parliament decided not to allow prisoners to seek medical treatment abroad. Very unlikely that it will sign association and free trade agreement at third Eastern Partnership summit Few immediate economic benefits the EU can offer to counteract what Moscow would do to punish Kiev for closer ties w the West. Russia has shown its ability to weaken Ukrainian economic sectors through trade restrictions. Putin most likely offered investment and better energy deals as an incentive for Ukraine not to sign agreements with EU. Will likely normalize relations with Russia Looking to Slovakia - would allow Ukraine to get some gas from West through reverse flows (gas would still be Russian but purchased at lower price than buying directly from Gazprom). Has imported small amounts of reverse gas from Poland and Hungary. But Slovakia worries that relationship w Russia will sour if it offers Ukraine an alternative supply. Ukraine's geopolitical imperative is to balance btw the EU and Russia, without getting too close to either. Surrounded by NATO on west and Russia's Collective Security Treaty Organization on the east. Politically, western part of country has been oriented towards Europe, east towards Russia. Expected that Ukraine and Russia will sign major gas deal that would give Ukraine lower gas prices. But Russia wants access to strategic energy assets (pipeline transports) in the country and for Ukraine to join Customs Union. Talks with EU form leverage for Kiev in negotiating with Russia. Timoshenko and other pro-EU politicians have called for protests against Yanukovich - not good for elections in 2015. Orange Revolution - Winter 2004. In the immediate aftermath of the run-off vote of the 2004 Ukrainian presidential election which was claimed to be marred by massive corruption, voter intimidation and direct electoral fraud. Claims that results of the run-off vote of 21 November 2004 between leading candidates Viktor Yushchenko and Viktor Yanukovych were rigged by the authorities in favor of the latter. Results of the original run-off were annulled, and a revote was ordered by Ukraine's Supreme Court. The final results showed a clear victory for Yushchenko, who received about 52% of the vote, compared to Yanukovych's 44%. Yushchenko was declared the official winner and with his inauguration on 23 January 2005 in Kiev, the Orange Revolution ended. Many thought the new protesters upset over rejection of EU partnership, would bring about rebirth of Orange Revolution. But died down quickly. Russia selectively applied trade restrictions on Ukranian goods and warned of worse to come if Kiev signed the EU deals. Given Ukraine's economic dependence on Russia, the threat proved potent. Protests have reached critical mass. Yanukovich has assembled a meeting with the three former presidents of Ukraine. Three leaders of opposition have formed a troika. Vitali Klitschko - former boxer with deep ties to German government, specifically Merkel's CDU and the NGO Konrad Adenauer foundation. His political party is the Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reforms. Arsenly Yatsenyuk - heads Yulia Tymoshenko's former faction, Open Ukraine. Is strongly connected with German NGO Friedrich Ebert Foundation, the State Department, and the National Endowment for Democracy. Oleh Tyahnybok - nationalist and pro-West, but anti-Semitic. The troika is starkly different, and will have difficulty reaching a common stance. The Orange Revolution of 2004 was led by Tymoshenko and Yushchenko. This time, Yanukovich is trying to play the troika against eachother. He ordered a rade on Tymoshenko and Yatsenyuk's party offices. Ukraine is primary transit route for Russian energy to the West, so it will fight bitterly in Kiev. US support for the protest will keep Russia focused on its own region and off the offensive against the US. Leonid Kravchuk - First President of Ukraine (91-94) Leonid Kuchma - 94-2005. Victor Yushchenko - 05-10. Western NGO's and state-sponsored groups are on the ground supporting protesters, and have been operating in Ukraine for a long time. They were instrumental in bringing about the 2004 Orange Revolution. Provide financial support, organizational and political support, training for civil and political leaders, and propaganda. More than half of the country's primary energy supply comes from its uranium and coal resources. Heavily dependent on nuclear energy—its fifteen reactors generate roughly half of the total electric power supply. Only a relatively small portion of the country's total consumption is accounted for by petroleum and other liquid fuels. Russian natural gas, imported through the Bratstvo (Brotherhood) and Soyuz pipelines. Recent discoveries of shale gas deposits in Ukraine provide the country with a possible means to diversify its gas supplies away from Russia. Ukraine literally means 'on the edge'. Has been divided throughout its history, by Russia, Poland, and the Ottomans. Ukraine was caught between Stalin and Hitler, and no country suffered as much in the 20th century as Ukraine. Between 1914-45, Ukraine was a living hell. Largely due to the flat country. Ukraine has been independent for 18 years - longest in its history. While ukrainians want to join the EU, the EU is ambivalent at best about Ukraine. Doesn't want to take on another weakling. But Russia needs Ukraine, and gives it much attention. Ukraine is as important to Russian security as Texas is to the US, or Scotland to the UK. Ukraine is Russia's soft underbelly. Allow Russia to anchor its security in the Carpathians. Ukraine also controls Russian access to the black sea, and Russia benefits from access to the ports of Odessa and Sevastopol Following the breakup of the Soviet Union, Ukraine had a series of pro-Russian governments. In 2004 election, pro-Russian Yanukovich won. Crowds took to the streets and forced him to resign. Pro-Western coalition took over. Putin spent the next year working to reverse the outcome, seeking to split the coalition. In 2010 elections, Yanukovich returned to power. Largely bc the US was focused on the Middle East. Then w/ 2008 financial crisis, Germany drew close to Russia. Russian oligarchs used close ties to Ukranian oligarchs to influence the election. Yanukovich's 2010 victory is largely seen as repudiating the Orange Revolution, seeing him as a Russian tool. In most Eastern European countries, there is a class difference for EU membership. Political and economic elites are enthusiastic, while the lower classes are restrained. In Ukraine, the East is pro-Russia, West is pro-EU, and center is mixed. West speaks Ukranian, East speaks Russian. Eastern portion is industrial, and the people understand that their industries can't compete with Europe's. They know the Russians will buy what they produce, and they fear European factories in western Ukraine would cost them their jobs. Oligarchs hold huge power in Ukraine, and tie the economy and politics to Russia. Ukraine had always been seeking lower natural gas prices from Russia. The big deal gives Ukraine a 33% discount and Moscow agrees to buy $15 billion worth of Ukranian debt through its Russia's National Welfare Fund. Sends a strong political message that Kiev is inextricably tied to Moscow. Ukraine had requested billions in financial assistance from the EU, and the EU denied - opened the door for Ukraine and Russia to finally make a deal. Took the deal for financial reasons. Ukraine has a huge account deficit. Russia had threatened the restriction of trade. While Ukraine was a matter of interest for the EU, it was vital to Russia. Therefore Russia was willing pay billions of dollars to guarantee Kiev's orientation away from the West. The EU offered long term potential benefits. Both sides wanted Ukraine in their bloc, but only Russia was willing to pay for it. Yanukovich met for the first time with Klitchshko, Yatsenyuk, and Tyanhybok. They demanded the government's resignation and early elections. Protests have spread to several parts of Western and Central Ukraine. Main protesters are in Independence Square (commonly referred to as Maidan). Gov has not yet called a state of emergency. Protestors are still blockading regional administrative buildings. But now protests are starting to pop up in the east. Military has said it will not crack down, meaning Yanukovich is ready to concede. Offered to appoint Yatsenyuk as prime minister and Klitschko as deputy prime minister and to release demonstrators who have been detained. But the three opposition leaders declined, saying Yanukovich must step down and the anti-protest law must be repealed. Even if he does step down, the last pro-Western regime in Ukraine, led by Viktor Yushchenko, found out what it meant to turn away from Russia and toward the European Union and NATO. Moscow responded with natural gas cutoffs, among other measures, that resulted in severe economic and political pain. The Ukrainian parliament voted Jan. 28 to repeal the recently passed anti-protest laws that sparked demonstrations across the country, while Ukrainian Prime Minister Nikolai Azarov tendered his resignation on the same day. Was largely a result of Yanukovich's meeting with the three protest leaders. Parliament will vote whether to grant amnesty to protesters arrested. Protesters have applauded Azarov's resignation. Right-wing protest elements have been more vocal -- Right Sector calling for complete change of power and criticizing the more moderate elements of the protests for being too conciliatory. Thus, the three groups that met with Yanukovich do not represent all of the protest groups. Russia has threatened to remove its 15$billion loan if the govt is removed. Germany is worried that much of the opposition cannot be controlled. This crisis has shown that despite Russia's influence in Ukraine, it does not have complete control of events. Major issue will be appeasing the radical elements. Ukraine is critical to Russia's defense. Moscow is only 300 miles from border. And this land is flat and difficult to defend. And could threaten access to the Caucasus. And Odessa and Sevastopol ports are critical to Russia. Losing them would cut off Russian access to the Black Sea and Mediterranean. When Bolsheviks sued for peace in WW1, they demanded continued control of Ukraine. Ukrainian agriculture feeds Russia. Putin can rest knowing that any government in Kiev will have the same constraints as Yanukovich - Little hope of EU membership, dependence on Russian energy, and economic integration with Moscow. Eastern Ukraine speaks Russian, is russian orthodox, and is loyal to the Russian patriarch. Western Ukraine is catholic or loyal to the Kiev patriarchy. Increased EU pressure could split the country. The historical problem of Ukraine - It is in an important strategic location, meaning the pressures on it magnify any internal conflicts until they destabilize the country. Russia will avoid any direct moves with the Olympics going on. Since the landmark Ukrainian-Russian gas deal, Kiev has stopped importing energy from Europe. Prior to this, it attempted to diversify its options away from Russia, reverse importing gas from Poland and Hungary. Russia would not lower gas prices for the Ukraine while the country was engaged in talks with the EU. Parliament refused to consider oppositions demand to reform constitution, leading to deadliest day or riots. Right Sector has occupied buildings in Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk. Opposition's main demand is to return to the 2004 constitution, which empowers parliament over the presidency. Germany has considered sanctions. The US and EU do not want to be linked to supporting the more radical elements. But the opposition is very divided. Big Three could not stop Right Sector from targeting administrative buildings and police. They are trying to distance themselves from the Right Sector. Russia announced it would buy its next tranche of $2 billion in Ukrainian bonds this week, reacting to opposition meeting with Merkel to discuss EU aid to opposition. Lviv - Occupied by opposition in Western Ukraine, along with Khmelnytskyi, Ivano-Frankivsk, Uzhhorod and Ternopil. Led by People's Rada in Lviv, the largest and most important city in the West, who said they want to declare independence from Kiev. Lviv's history -- both as a hub for national movements and for its distinction from the eastern part of the country as a truly European city -- has been crucial in the history of Ukraine. Lviv was, from the 16th to the 18th century, part of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, when it was known as Lwow. The partition of the commonwealth at the end of the 18th century placed it under the control of Habsburg Austria, and the city was then referred to as Lemberg. Following World War I, it went back to Poland, then the Soviets took over after World War II and renamed it Lvov. After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine became an independent state, giving the city its current name of Lviv. So many different cultural influences intersect in Lviv. It was in Lviv -- not Kiev -- that Ukraine's national movement was strongest, both in its emergence in the late 19th century and during the final years of the Soviet Union that produced Ukrainian independence in 1991. Now it is in Lviv where opposition to Yanukovich -- who hails from the eastern Donbass region, which is politically and culturally at odds with western Ukraine -- is strongest. The city is known as 'Little Paris' and is a very European city. Lviv, in the far west of Ukraine, was able to avoid Soviet rule longer than any other part of the country, but it eventually succumbed after World War II. The city now fiercely guards its Ukrainian culture and European heritage, which set it apart from other parts of Ukraine. Lviv is the most Ukrainian of Ukraine's big cities and the most supportive of Ukraine's integration with the European Union. This is where influences from the West -- Poland, Austria and Europe in general -- are the strongest and influence from Russia is the weakest. Putin has sat back while the Europeans worked. Foreign ministers from Germany, France and Poland traveled to downtown Kiev amid violent clashes to meet first with the opposition and then with Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich. Meanwhile, scattered reports of police defections formed the backdrop to a frantic Yanukovich trying to reshuffle his security and intelligence chiefs in western Ukraine once again. The Ukrainian parliament passed a measure that would halt the "anti-terrorism operation" announced by Yanukovich the previous day. The law, if ratified by the speaker of parliament and not vetoed by Yanukovich within the next 10 days, would also order all law enforcement officers to lay down their guns and return to their barracks. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk also said that Yanukovich expressed his willingness to create an interim government and hold early presidential and parliamentary elections. Yanukovich hopes that the radical elements of the opposition reject the terms of the agreement, resume violence and torpedo the deal. Russia appeared indifferent throughout the day. The prospect of forcing early elections on a democratically elected government in Russia's periphery is a precedent that Moscow will naturally fight. But Putin also has much more serious moves to contemplate over Ukraine. Yanukovich has become a liability to Moscow's foreign policy agenda, and the Kremlin is not being shy about its rapidly declining opinion of the Ukrainian leader. But preparing a suitable alternative that the West can stomach but is still friendly to Russian interests is a process that requires time. Putin is giving the impression that time is on his side. His strategy is to let the Europeans and protesters overplay their hand. Significant numbers of Ukrainians still are outraged by the protests, even if they are disillusioned with Yanukovich. Meanwhile, the opposition in the west is unsustainable without foreign support. Poland is trying to sustain the momentum behind these protests, but Warsaw knows it faces major limits in confronting Moscow when Berlin is far more reluctant to challenge the Russians. Even a federalized Ukraine that gives the regions more authority may be a suitable outcome for Russia Combination of economic downturn and political transition has produced a crisis. Foreign reserves are plummeting. This is why russia's loan is important. EU and US offering technical and financial assistance - want to show that there is an alternative to Russian aid. Whoever is in charge of Ukraine will need secure financial assistance from abroad. But EU aid demands reform, involves a lengthy procedure to apply aid, and Europe's financial problems all limit EU inroads. Kiev will need to preserve financial and economic ties to Russia. Russia's aid has always been immediate and without demands. Ukraine is dire economic straits- severe debt and will be unable to repay bills without new loans. Meanwhile Ukrainian natural gas firm Naftogaz owes Gazprom $5.5 billion for past gas bills. Owes the IMF multiple billion. Foreign currency reforms are dwindling. Currency problems. EU cannot deal with trauma that would occur if a struggling EU diverted billions to a non-EU member. Germany and France do not want to send funds. Some industries, especially in the country's east, would initially experience dislocation if they integrated into a European market where their products are less competitive. Thus, these industries do not view abolishing trade barriers with Europe positively. The most potent tool the West has to help the Ukrainian government financially is the International Monetary Fund. The European Union and United States, through their voting power, could push the International Monetary Fund to reopen negotiations with Ukraine. Nonetheless, successful negotiations would be contingent upon the implementation of reforms. Disbursement of funds would strongly depend on both political stability in Ukraine and the willingness of future governments, regardless of political affiliation, to implement reforms that are unpopular among Ukrainian constituents across ideologies. Early Feb, pro-regime Ukrainian Front was established in Kharkiv (far east - second largest city in Ukraine) to provide a counterweight to the anti-regime movement unified around Maidan Square in Kiev. Although formed at a local conference administered by a branch of the ruling Party of Regions, several grassroots groups, including a cage-fighting club and a veteran's union, have affirmed their patronage. Unofficial support for the Ukrainian Front from President Viktor Yanukovich's government and Russia could turn the new organization into an important element of the Party of Regions' strategy for confronting opposition protesters. The Ukrainian Front enjoys official support from certain members of the Party of Regions as well as elements of the Communist Party. Its political base is currently concentrated in the eastern cities of Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv. Members of the veterans' group and the Oplot fight club will likely make up the core of these militias in the Kharkiv area. There are also reports that Russian bikers have arrived in Sevastopol, which adds a different dimension: Groups such as the Night Wolves, a prominent biker gang, eschew anti-establishment bombast, supporting Russian patriotism instead. Furthermore, while individuals in the country's industrial east tend to work in factories with fixed work schedules, seasonal work is common in the more agricultural west. As a result, workers in the east generally require greater incentives to engage in political protests.

Public & Foreign debt

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Solomon Islands

East of Papua New Guinea Includes Guadalcanal and Pavuvu

Sudan

Khartoum President Omar Bashir - wanted by ICC. Expected to leave office in 2015. Head of National Congress Party. Led military coup in 89 when country was at risk of major famine. ICC accused al-Bashir of genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes in Darfur. South Sudan's secession in 11. South controlled 70% of oil production. No provisions created to govern oil transport. Juba eventually halted production for over a year, until transit fee was agreed upon.But S. Sudan is dependent on Sudan because it must use Sudan's export pipelines and processing facilities. Prior to independence, the unified Sudan had fought two civil wars. The second civil war ended with the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement that was put in place from 2005 to 2011. Still border disputes. Struggling to obtain foreign currency, which it needs to purchase critical imports. Currency has been devalued numerous times to bridge gap btw official exchange rate and black market. Must halt inflation. Rising fuel and food costs. Protests in September 13 against fuel subsidy cuts. 200 protesters killed. Now bread shortages threaten stability. Imports 80% of its wheat. Currency devaluation has made food imports mroe expensive. Desert country with few natural resources other than oil, gold, and gum arabic. Land is unsuitable for agriculture, meaning food imports are critical. Oil, foreign currency, and food have symbiotic relationship. Trying to improve domestic wheat production through irrigation. Could be threatened by Ethiopia's Grand Renaissance Dam, which would limit water availability. Trying to get foreign reserves by auctioning off new undeveloped oil blocks and developing new mining ventures. Temporarily utilized $1billion loan from Qatar. Most of Sudan's and South Sudan's proved reserves of crude oil and natural gas are located in the Muglad and Melut basins, which extend into both countries. No natural gas production or consumption. Oil fields are mature and declining output. The China National Petroleum Corporation, India's Oil and Natural Gas Corporation, and Malaysia's Petronas hold large stakes in the leading consortia operating oil fields and pipelines. Sudapet - National oil company Darfur conflict is fueled by Chad and Libya. 300,000 dead. Chad kicked out the Darfuri rebels it had previously supported and a joint military border patrol was established.The rebels in Darfur lost the support from Libya after the death of Muammar Gaddafi and the collapse of his regime in 2011. Darfur wants share of govt's funds and say in policymaking. Two rebel groups - Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) and Sudanese Liberation Army (SLA). Government trained Janjaweed (translates to devil on horse) militias to attack villages in Darfur. Ethnic cleansing by Arabs against black Africans.

Senegal

Leopold Senghor - President of Senegal from 60-80. Often compared to Nelson Mandela, but he was eventually forced from power. Currently hosts permanent French military forces

Gambia

Located on the river Gambia Former UK colony (one of few in West Africa) Banjul President Yahya Jammeh Cut ties with Taiwan to court relations with mainland China

Niger

Niamey Small-scale plans to update links from Ivory Coast to Burkina Faso and to Niger to collect oil, natural gas and uranium President Mahamadou Issoufou Helped secure release of four French citizens taken hostage in Areva Uranium mine, located in the Agadez region of Niger Asked the French to intervene in southern Libya to prevent a terrorist incubator. Northern Niger is used as a key transit point from southern Libya to mali. When Gadhafi was in power, he armed and trained the Tauregs and encouraged local rebellions to keep the states to his south distracted - also deterred powers like France from invading libya. The tauregs have cooperated with AQIM. The rebellions in Mali, Niger and Chad are not much of a strategic threat to France, but the remobilization of weapons and fighters in southern Libya cannot be ignored.These states want France and the US to secure their desert borders. Niamey is already locked into a contentious debate with France over the future of uranium mining in norther Niger. Is likely seeking greater cooperation, training, and military aid from France. Successfully lobbied US to place drone base in Niger.

Cyprus

Nicosia 1 million Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades Far right National Popular Front - nationalist, fascist, anti-immigrant, and neo-nazi Divided since 1974 when Turkey invaded the north in response to a military coup on the island which was backed by the Athens government. "Green Line" - dividing the two parts from Morphou through Nicosia to Famagusta - is patrolled by United Nations troops. Drew up the Green Line as a ceasefire demarcation line in 1963 after intervening to end communal tension. It became impassable after the Turkish invasion of 1974, except for designated crossing points. In 1983 the Turkish-held area declared itself the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. The status of Northern Cyprus as a separate entity is recognised only by Turkey, which keeps around 30,000 troops in the north of the island UN-sponsored negotiations continued throughout 2002 and a peace plan was tabled. Soon afterwards the EU invited Cyprus to become a member. Failed to agree to the UN plan by the March 2003 deadline As EU entry approached, a revised UN reunification plan was put to both communities in twin referendums in April 2004. The plan was endorsed by Turkish Cypriots - though not by their then leader Rauf Denktash - but overwhelmingly rejected by Greek Cypriots. Because both sides had to approve the proposals, the island remained divided as it joined the EU in May. EU laws and benefits apply only to the Greek Cypriot community. More than two years later, hopes of progress were rekindled at UN-sponsored talks between Cypriot President Tassos Papadopolous and Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat. Hopes for a deal were dealt a blow by the victory of right-wing nationalists at parliamentary elections in northern Cyprus in April 2009. The invasion - President Archbishop Makarios, a Greek Cypriot, was deposed. The coup led to fears among the Turkish Cypriot community that the Greek-backed military rulers would ignore their rights and press for unification for Cyprus with Greece or enosis. Turks have made it clear they will not settle for anything less than the removal of the newly-imposed Greek Cypriot leader Nikos Sampson. About 160,000 Greek Cypriots fled south or were expelled - about 50,000 Turkish Cypriots moved north a year later. Northern and western countries are resisting it's accession to the Schengen Zone Was a financial haven for Russian depositors. Overhauling the energy sector will remain a long-term goal for Nicosia even though such reform will not improve the country's economic situation in the short term. Due to the size of the country and its distance from consumers, Cyprus has a small manufacturing base and is a strongly service-oriented (produce services rather than products - designed to improve efficiency of products) economy. Financial sector will remain a fundamental aspect of Cypriot economy. Nicosia hopes to diversify away from services by developing the country as an energy hub. The Eastern Mediterranean has large natural gas reserves, and Cyprus hopes to gain greater importance as a transit state for natural gas flows to Europe, as well as profit from domestic natural gas reserves off its coast. The Aphrodite natural gas field was discovered in 2011 off Cyprus' southeastern coast and raised hopes of further discoveries in Cypriot waters. A pipeline bringing natural gas from Israel to Europe through Cyprus is also an option being discussed. Further, Nicosia hopes to build a liquefied natural gas liquefaction terminal but needs further natural gas discoveries to make such a terminal commercially viable. Some kind of accommodation with Turkey would be necessary for commercial natural gas operations. Investors and competitors will need assurances that Turkey will not threaten energy infrastructure. Is seeking alternative relationship with Russia while the Continent is dealing with financial crisis. Nicosia and Moscow have long had strong ties, and the country looked to Moscow for financial assistance several times in the past. Russian capital will likely also be an important factor in future Cypriot privatizations demanded under the bailout agreement. This relationship keeps the West interested in the island, worried about expanding Russian influence into the Mediterranean. Syria's port of Tartus is Russia's only naval base in the Mediterranean and Cyprus is a good alternative location since it is not in NATO. Particularly since mid-2013, Moscow has been making greater efforts to gain more permanent access to Cypriot airfields and ports - potential for acquisition of Andreas Papandreou Air Base. Moscow has been allowed access to naval and air facilities. Although the agreement under discussion is unlikely to give Moscow a permanent base, it is an important deal given that Western countries with strong military interests in Cyprus closely follow the evolution of the Cypriot-Russian relationship. The United Kingdom in particular -- from which Cyprus gained independence in 1960 -- still owns two sovereign base areas on the island as part of its overseas territories. Capital controls over frozen assets/funds will continue to be gradually loosened. But they are unlikely to be completely removed. Weak banks will lead to little credit growth, and the issue of nonperforming loans will be critical. The financial situation was aggravated by Troika's restructuring of Cyprus's banking system after bailout. Before the crisis, Cyprus's banking was gigantic. Strong financial ties to Greece further exacerbated the situation. Troika demanded that depositors in Cypriot banks contribute - this will be a model on which future bank bailouts/reforms in other EU countries will look like. Taxpayers and govts should not be the only ones with the burden of rescuing the banks - depositors and creditors must help out as well. Placed capital controls in place to prevent the outflow of cash. Transfers abroad were prohibited, and daily withdrawals limited. Many foreign banks have been allowed to continue operations - symbolic of how import an Cyprus is as a financial gateway btw Europe and the Middle East. Providing financial services for foreigners will be one of the country's most important economic pillars. While the Cypriot people suffer, Cyprus banks will shield foreign institutions and depositors from the financial crisis. Attracting and retaining foreign depositors will be crucial to the country's economy. High unemployment means less domestic savings placed in banks.

Madagascar

One of few French colonies outside of West Africa

Mauritius

One of few French colonies outside of West Africa

Seychelles

One of few French colonies outside of West Africa

Afghanistan

Pres - Hamid Karzai Elections in 2014 - All Pashtun candidates, but run w/ VP's from different ethnicities Strongest candidates - Zalmai Rassoul, Abdullah Abdullah Pashtun-42% Tajik-27% Hazara(Shia, Persian speaking)-10% Uzbek-9% Virtually no energy resources Taliban suffered loss when embassy in Qatar closed. Chief Mullah Mohammad Omar. US understanding w Iran will undermine Taliban. US is confident that Taliban will not take over Is one of three countries chronically plagued by polio Loya Jirga - Grand Assembly. Karzai proposed that his successor should be the one to secure bilateral security agreement with the US, not him. Agreement would secure military presence beyond coalition withdrawal date of 2014, extending training, advisory, and support missions. Will also guarantee $4 billion in foreign aid annually. US assumes that Afghanistan depends on external financial and military aid, and thus will reach agreement before presidential elections in April. Sticking points are legality of US soldiers in country and issues with raids into private Afghan homes, which Karzai has opposed. US wants to avoid 'zero option', leaving no troops in a sudden withdrawal. Experience with Iraq has shown that this is no good. Karzai has a history of making dramatic public statements designed to better his negotiating stance and please domestic audience. He is hoping to gain further concessions from the US by opposing agreement, most important is that he remain politically relevant after election. International Security Assistance Force Afghan National Security Forces - endemic corruption in the security apparatus, due to patronage customs. Civilian and military aid surpassed Afghanistan's entire GDP. Lack of post-withdrawal agreement would result in chaotic return to tribalism If foreign assistance ended, black market trade of opium would surge. Cultivation is already at an all-time-high. Foreign aid subsidizes conventional crops and combats poppy growing. Opium is a national security issue for Afghanistan - its market funds militant groups, leading to local warlords and fueling organized crime. Agreement must be reached, or violence could spill over to Pakistan, which would further threaten fragile regime and its hold over nuclear weapons. Taliban - Power base is with the Pashtun people. Was engaged in civil war with Northern Alliance when the US invaded. Is a nationalist jihadist organization, and has never sought to transition transnationally. Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan 1996-2001, when it fell after controlling most of the country. Quetta Shura directs the insurgency from Quetta, Pakistan. Haqqani Network - Led by Haqqani father and son. Based out of tribal Waziristan. Allied with Taliban The Durand Line refers to the 2,640 kilometers (1,640 mi) long porous border between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Kabul will eventually agree to continue US military presence. Karzai will be difficult, but only to prevent negative public blowback when he announces his decision. Presidential election in 2014 will produce a successor to Karzai.

Uzbekistan

Pres - Islam Karimov (since independence) Has led since 89. From Samarkand tribe. Has been forced to balance the clans, sometimes with brutal force, while facing threats of coups and uprisings. 30 million ppl Traditionally not nomadic - settled Ferghana Valley - Has several exclaves in T&K Ethnic/border conflict with Kyrgyzstan (2010 - Limited invasion, then withdrawal, allowing Uzbek refugees to flee-stopped by Russia) Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan - opposition to Pres Islam Karimov's secular rule - driven out following invasion of Afghanistan in 2001. Numerous uprisings based out of Andijan Major succession issues 3rd largest nat gas producer in eurasia (18th globally) behind Russia and Turkmenistan - Rich in mostly nat gas, some oil, 3 refineries. Is a major exporter of electricity produced from gas and hydropower. Also has large deposits of gold, uranium, and copper. Uzbekneftegaz - heavy investment from Gazprom & CNPC Iran could be new export partner for Uzbek energy. Uzbekistan holds most of Central Asia's heartland - Ferghana Valley. Makes it the natural leader. Largest population among the five Central Asian states. Used to be the route for the Silk road to Asia. Also is the only nation to border all other Central Asian states, and Afghanistan. Uzbeks originated in the 15th century, when a tribal group under the mongol Golden Horde consolidated. Ceased the traditional nomadic and warring life, and settled in the two oases of Central Asia - Ferghana Valley and Samarkand. Throughout the century, even the non-ethnic Uzbek residents - Persians, Mongols, and Turks - began calling themselves Uzbeks. Agriculture (wheat and cotton) makes up 25% of its GDP. Therefore, is far more self-sufficient than its neighbors, who rely on foreign help fro energy and food. Therefore, has historically had an independent streak, being most resistant to the Russian Empire and Soviet Union. Pulled out of the Collective Security Treaty Organization. Gets more conservative Muslim, the farther east you go. Also holds true for most Central Asia. Eastern Central Asia is far more religiously conservative than the west. Clan divides are a vulnerability that outside powers have exploited throughout history. With Karimov about to die, the clans are jostling for power, as well as Russia and China. Three main regions - the Bukhara (Samarkand Province in East - btw the two arms), Khiva (Khorezm Province (southeast sliver), and Kokand (Ferghana Province - Far East). Russian expansion in 1800's changed these regions, and separated them, allowing each to elect their own leader. Before Soviet control, a brief period brought about an opportunity for Uzbek provinces to unite and create an independent Uzbek nation as a European-style democracy - but failed because Uzbeks could not cooperate. Borders constantly shifted, due to Stalin and Kremlin interference. The legacy of constantly shifting borders is still evident in border disputes among the countries of Central Asia. Soviets knew a unified Uzbek nation would be a threat. Formalized country into three main clans - Tashkent, Fergana, and Samarkand (All located in eastern half. In order to keep the clans equally strong, without one being strong enough to consolidate the Uzbek people). Fergana and Samarkand were most powerful during imperial power (Fergana was bulk of population, Samarkand was cultural center). Soviets moved capital from Samarkand to Tashkent to bolster the Tashkent clan and equalize the three clans' power. Played the clans off one another. Moscow rotated the top position among the three primary clans. When one Uzbek leader proved particularly loyal and a good manager of the clans, he served longer than most. Karimov is the grand arbiter between the clans - when he passes, there will be major conflict. The four smaller clans -- the Jizzakh, Kashkadarya, Khorezm and Karakalpak -- tend to change alliances. These four smaller clans are more interested in their regional businesses and local governments. Sharof Rashidov (59-83) From Samarkand clan. Longest serving head of state, along with Karimov. His death brought about internal conflict and turmoil. Karimov was not powerful enough to cause concern within the Tashkent and Fergana clans, or Moscow. By 1999, the Samarkand clan had more or less broken away from Karimov politically, due to his diversified loyalties. Karmiov has constantly had to deal with rumors that Samarkand's Jurabekov (director of internal intelligence agency) and Almatov are attempting coups. Constant power struggle between National Security Services (controlled by Tashkent) and Interior Ministry forces (Samarkand). There has been relative stability in Uzbekistan for the past few years (a byproduct of Karimov's mastery of balancing the clans). 2005 Andijan massacre, in which government forces clamped down on protests in the Fergana Valley. A purge started in late 2004 and early 2005 of Fergana clan elite and businessmen. Supposedly led by Tashkent. Thousands were on the streets when the border guards and Interior Ministry forces cracked down. Killed 1,500. Krygyzstan shut down borders to prevent refugee influx. In the aftermath, Karimov blamed the uprising on extremists in order to downplay Uzbekistan's internal struggles. The crisis led to massive international condemnation of the Uzbek government and sanctions from many Western nations on Uzbekistan. This in turn led Uzbekistan to close the U.S. military base at Karshi-Khanabad. In the aftermath of the incident in Andijan, Karimov ousted Almatov as head of the Interior Ministry forces, leaving the Samarkand clan crippled. This has left the Tashkent clan dominant, until recently. Now, Samarkand and Ferghana tribes are aligning together again. But Tashkent and Inoyatov's National Security Services are targeting Ferghana leadership, leaving them crippled. Are also targeting Karimov's estranged daughter, Gulnara Karimova, who is hated by the Samarkand and Tashkent clans. It is probable that Inoyatov is pressuring Karimov to carry out these acts. What is clear is that the Fergana clan, and any support Karimova has, is being systematically shut down in the country. The last time the Fergana clan was targeted on such a large scale, it contributed to the instability that led to the Andijan crisis. Inoyatov's power may be too great for Karimov to contain. He has even begun targeting Samarkand clan. The Tashkent clan's increased targeting of both the Fergana and Samarkand clans could signal that Tashkent is preparing for the presidential succession. Two obvious players from the Samarkand and Tashkent clans jockeying for the position. From the Samarkand clan, Mirziyoyev is the most likely successor, with the former Samarkand leader Jurabekov supporting him behind the scenes. Samarkand continues to hold its base, with the Interior Ministry forces as its greatest tool. Inoyatov of the Tashkent clan has eyed the position, but he is 70 years old, and if he did take Karimov's place it might not be for long. His fellow Tashkent clan member, Rustam Azimov, is instead the most likely choice as successor from the Tashkent clan. But he and Inoyatov do not get along, although he has Karimov's support. The Fergana clan is currently in shambles, with no leader. However, given that the remaining clan members have strong Russian ties and a wealthy oligarch -- Usmanov -- in Moscow who has an interest in seeing the Fergana clan remain prominent in his home country, this weakness most likely will not last long. The Fergana Valley is one of the most conservative Islamic parts of Central Asia. Jumma Kasimov, founder of Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, was from Ferghana. This region is also one of the poorest, which led to stirrings among male youths in the early 1990s that Kasimov was able to exploit to build his forces and significantly challenge Karimov -- arguably more than any of the clan leaders could. In February 1999, six car bombs exploded across Tashkent within 90 minutes, targeting government buildings. In 2004, another wave of bombings took place -- explosions in Tashkent in March and April targeted police, and blasts occurred at the U.S. and Israeli embassies in Tashkent. Officials blamed the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, the Islamic Jihad Union and Hizb ut-Tahrir for the bombings. Again, various clans were accused of supporting the militant groups, though nothing could be proved. Samarkand - 20% of population (Centrist religiously). Tashkent - 17% (Liberal religiously, highly educated populace). Ferghana - 17% (extremely conservative, strong ties to Russia). Both Russia and China see Uzbekistan as the key to influencing Central Asia as a whole. Half of Uzbek gas goes to Russia. Russia holds many levers in Uzbekistan, the most important of which is the population of Uzbek migrant laborers working in Russia. 8% of the Uzbek population lives in Russia. Huge $ in remittances from Russia. With Uzbekistan concerned about an insufficient number of jobs for its growing population at home, the country needs continued access to Russia for its workers. Usmanov is one of Russia's richest men, with a fortune of nearly $20 billion. He also has close ties with the Kremlin. Usmanov is from the Namangan province and has close ties with the currently leaderless Fergana clan. Uzbekistan holds natural gas, gold, uranium and copper supplies -- all of which are of interest to Beijing. Uzbekistan -- being the center of the region -- is an important piece of the trade corridor from China through Central Asia to the Middle East and South Asia, as it was during the days of the Silk Road. China has been interested in diversifying its supply routes, coupling its ongoing reliance on sea-based transit with new or improved land routes, and this includes reviving the former Silk Road connections for trade. Already China is in talks with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan on rail and road transit, and Uzbekistan could be next. But China's influence in Uzbekistan now is low. But could offer much needed investment in Tashkent's gas sector. Uzbekistan could be interested in receiving arms from a non-Russian player, particularly as Russia increases its influence in Central Asia. Since the country borders all the other Central Asian states, should Uzbekistan destabilize, it could have repercussions throughout the region. Kyrgyzstan has large diaspora strongly tied to Ferghana tribe, and Tajikstan's large diaspora is tied to Samarkand. Thus, clan infighting could reach into the diasporas in the other Central Asian states. Should Uzbekistan be able to remain stable and beef up its energy sector, it could erode Turkmenistan's dominance in sending natural gas to China and could compete with Kazakhstan's future exports. Uzbekistan is especially vulnerable to water shortages because of its economic reliance on cotton, irrigated with the waters of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, for export. Thus, Uzbekistan has viciously opposed plans to build dams in the poorer upstream nations and has even cut off energy shipments in the past. Karimov has threatened war with the tow upstream nations if they begin to use water as leverage.

Cambodia

Prime Minster Hun Sen (98-present). Opened the country up economically. Phnom Penh Cambodian People's Party Opposition - Cambodia National Rescue Party - Led by Sam Rainsy. Rejects the July Parliamentary results. Wants to reform an electoral system widely seen as instrumental in the ruling party's two decades of political domination Cambodia's textile and garment industry is a linchpin of the country's emerging economy. Growth was fueled by low wages and lax labor regulations that secured low production cost for foreign investors. But as the country has continued to rely heavily on the garment industry, low wages, poor working conditions and a loose regulatory environment have taken a toll on the industry. With the state's high dependence on this industry, garment workers and trade unions have emerged as prominent social forces and have given rise to a higher degree of political competition. The country's rampant corruption and poor infrastructure have made Cambodia one of the least popular destinations for foreign investment among Association of Southeast Asian Nations member Violent protests calling for higher wages rose in 2013, but now aggrieved garment industry workers have joined forces with anti-government protesters

Aleutian Islands

Westernmost part of Alaska. Chain of 14 large volcanic islands and 57 smaller ones. At the extreme western end the small, geologically related, and remote Commander Islands are in Russia. The islands, with their 57 volcanoes, are in the northern part of the Pacific Ring of Fire. During World War II, small parts of the Aleutian islands were occupied by Japanese forces, when Attu and Kiska were invaded in order to divert American forces away from the main Japanese attack at Midway Atoll. The U.S. Navy, having broken the Japanese naval codes, knew that this was just a diversion, and it did not expend large amounts of effort in defending the islands. During the Aleutian Islands Campaign, American and Canadian forces invaded Japanese-held Attu and defeated the Japanese, and subsequently regained control of all the islands. The islands were also a stopping point for hundreds of aircraft sent from California to Russia as part of the war effort.

Jordan

Amman Abdullah II of Jordan 99-present Hussein bin Talal - 52-99. Recognized Israel in 94, becoming the second head of state to do that. In ten years, Hashemite Kingdom could become a Palestinian state. Hashemites were originally a family tribe based in Arabian peninsula along the Red Sea (Hijaz), but were ousted by the Sauds. Were given land in Jordan by Brits and French post WW1. Gained independence post WW2 in 46. Hashemites ultimate prize was Iraq, but There is little to expect from the peace process in Israel, but there may be significant economic deals made with Jordan. A part of Kerry's deal involves utilizing advanced technology and weaponry to prevent the need for masses of Israeli soldiers on the West bank, which would naturally involve Jordan. There is little incentive for the Israelis to work with a fragmented Palestinian side, especially as the US is working with Iran despite Israel's objections. But in the meantime, Jordan is looking to further link its economy to Israel. Israeli and American energy giants are close to signing 15-year contract with Jordan's Arab Potash Company, one of the world's largest (and in which the Jordanian gov has a 26% stake. Arab Potash would supply Israeli natural gas to large potash factory. Pipeline would be built across the Dead Sea. Would be completed in 2016. Meanwhile a water supply treaty was finalized between the PNA, Israel, and Jordan in December. Israel would provide Jordan with water from the Sea of Galilee. Would include a desalination plant in Aqaba. These economic deals are critical for Israel to maintain its healthy relationship with Jordan. One of the biggest casualties of Egyptian unrest was a pipeline from the Sinai to Israel. Has been attacked numerous times. Meanwhile the Egyptians are upset because it seems that Egypt was selling the gas at better prices to Israel than to their own people. The pipeline has therefore been suspended. Jordan meanwhile cannot expect reliable gas shipments from Egypt, especially as Cairo is experiencing a shortage of gas itself. Jordan imports 97% of its energy. After losing its main natural gas supply from Egypt, Jordan has had to import more fuel oils from Gulf Cooperation Council states. This means that the country's energy bill has skyrocketed. High gas prices could make it difficult to passify a restive population in Amman. Israel needs to maintain a stable Hashemite regime in Jordan. So it will export much of its excess natural gas to Jordan. Israel is in a good position to do this after its Tamar field just came online and its Leviathan field will be online in 2017. Israel has decided to keep 60% of its gas reserves and sell 40% abroad. Jordan remains the key business and political partner for Israel in the neighborhood.

Belgium

Brussels Antwerp Port on the Scheldt River. Was a CRUCIAL port for WWII armies. Ardennes Forest - Battle of the Bulge The country is populated by a Flemish ('Flemings' - Flanders State - Northern coastal region, including Brussels) majority of about 6,000,000 people speaking Dutch, a Walloon (Southern half - state of Wallonia) minority of 4,100,000 people speaking French. During the industrial revolution, Wallonia was second only to the United Kingdom in industrialization, capitalizing on its extensive deposits of coal and iron. This brought the region wealth, and, from the beginning of the 19th to the middle of the 20th centuries, Wallonia was the more prosperous half of Belgium. Since World War II the importance of heavy industry has greatly declined, and the Flemish Region surpassed Wallonia in wealth as Wallonia economically declined. Close to the Strait of Dover - UK and France - Dover is the closest city in the UK. Dunkirk is right across the border in France General elections scheduled for 2014

Brazil

Pres. Dilma Rousseff Ruling-Workers' Party(14 yrs) Lula de Silva traditional Opposition - Brazilian Social Democracy Party New Opposition Marina Silva's 'Sustainability Network' (environmental activist) formed coalition with Campos's Socialist Party Protests over public transportation cost increases Five years ago, massive oil reserves found offshore (pre-salt). Upon discovering the Tupi field, Lula said "God is Brazilian". Yet Brasilia needs foreign investments to develop pre-salt fields bc of the difficulties and cost Formed strict regulatory for pre-salt Petrobras - state oil company Auction of Libra field (same massive size as Tupi)-poor showing Expensive oil subsidies paid by govt In 2014, as the global economy shifts structurally, the country will need to maintain stability. The end of the US Federal Reserve monetary expansion program and the end of credit-driven growth spurt, Brasilia will need to carefully balance inflation and growth. 2014 will see high inflation and slower growth. With the Cup approaching, govt will be preoccupied finishing major infrastructure projects and readying its law enforcement. Political opposition will leverage protests to gain popularity ahead of elections. In October, new president will be elected. Rousseff and the Workers' Party will likely win.

South Africa

Pretoria Ruling ANC - African National Congress - black dominated National Party ruled during apartheid - authoritarian, extensive state control over all political economy aspects, strict labor requirements, banking, mining, industry restrictions Transitioned from apartheid in 1994 Looking to correct its investment regime - When it emerged from sanctions, it needed quick investment to restore struggling economy. Signed tons of investment agreements. Needs new investments to ensure opportunities for disadvantaged blacks. Planning major networks from Indian Ocean to Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, and Zambia, ending in Southern DRC. Gold, diamonds, copper, coal. ANC has same geopolitical imperitives as white Afrikaner regime - mining created the modern South Africa - discovery of gold and diamonds combined with temperate climate and natural deep-water harbors. China and South Korea are most important non-European investors - Europe has a large presence. ANC faces no threat to its control of parliament - elections in 2014. Its constituency is the average black South African Transformation & Benefication - key economic principles. Transformation means employment for black and non-white minorities. Benefication means developing manufacturing instead of simply exporting natural resources - MOVING UP THE VALUE ADDED CHAIN 95% of Africa's total coal reserves - fifth largest exporter Sole importer of natural gas from Mozambique Imports huge quantities of oil from OPEC for refining Competing for access to copper and cobalt in Katanga and Copperbelt provinces. One of four transport corridors. But no single railway bc of distance. Roads link to Durban port Mandela was born into a royal family, a lawyer, activist, guerrilla leader, and prisoner at the infamous Robben Island. He defied the self-enrichment that has characterized the continent's leaders since independence. Stepped down from office after one term. Although initially committed to non-violent protest, he co-founded the militant Umkhonto we Sizwe (MK) in 1961, in association with the South African Communist Party, leading a sabotage campaign against the apartheid government. In 1962, he was arrested, convicted of conspiracy to overthrow the state, and sentenced to life imprisonment in the Rivonia Trial. Served 27 years in prison. Mandela understood South Africa's geopolitical limitations. It is a country awash with riches, but its markets for the products lay beyond its shores - in the West for its diamonds, gold, and other mineral resources, and in the East for its coal, oil, and natural gas. After apartheid and sanctions, the ocuntry badly needed foreign capital - industry, mining, and transportation infrastructure all needed improvement. He re-opened to the world and saw recovery of FDI. 2014 will see national elections (April). Jacob Zuma will have a comfortable win. Bargaining over wage agreements in the mining agreements will come about again mid-year. But if the demand and pricing for the raw materials remains weak, the predominant unions (National Union of Mineworkers and the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union) will be pragmatic and selective in their agreements.

Syria

Bashar al-Assad Damascus 22 million Won independence from France in 46. 1958-61 it united with Nasser's Egypt, but an army coup restored independence before the pan-Arab nationalist Baath (Renaissance) party took control in 1963. Hafez al-Assad (70-2000) followed Baathism - Arab socialism opposed to Western colonization. Came to power through coup. Assad de-radicalized the Ba'ath regime when he took power, by giving more space to private property and strengthening the country's foreign relations. When he took power, Assad instituted one-man rule and organized state services into sectarian lines (the Sunnis becoming the formal heads of political institutions, while the Alawites were given control over the military, intelligence and security apparatuses). Assad began looking for a successor. His first choice as successor was his brother Rifaat al-Assad, widely seen as corrupt. In 1983-84, when Assad's health was in doubt, Rifaat al-Assad attempted to seize power, claiming that his brother wouldn't be fit rule if he recovered. When Assad's health did improve Rifaat al-Assad was exiled from the country. His next choice of successor was his own son, Bassel al-Assad. However, things did not go according to plan, and in 1994 Bassel al-Assad died in a car accident. His third choice was his son Bashar al-Assad, who had by that time no practical political experience. This move was met with open criticism within some quarters of the ruling class, but Assad reacted by demoting several officials who opposed his succession plan. Islamist uprising from 1976 until 1982. During the violent events Islamists attacked both civilians and off-duty military personnel, and civilians were also killed in retaliatory strike by security forces. The uprising had reached its climax in the 1982 Hama massacre, when some 10,000- 40,000 people were killed in the siege of the city by regular Syrian Army troops. Syria pulled its forces out of Lebanon in 2005, having come under intense international pressure to do so after the assassination of Lebanese former prime minister Rafik Hariri. A UN report implicated Syrian and pro-Syria Lebanese officials in the killing, although Damascus still denies any involvement. Tens of thousands are estimated to have been killed in the suppression of the 1982 uprising of the Muslim Brotherhood in Hama. Hezbollah and Iraqi Shiites recently skirmished. Hezbollah is posed to play its biggest role yet, with thousands of fighters being mobilized for the Qalamoun offensive. Regime forces poised to take Qara, overlooking the critical M5 highway, bordering Lebanon and the mountainous Qalamoun region. Will allow regime to have stable supply line from Damascus north. Rebels are plagued by infighting and useless conflict with Kurds in northeast. Weapons and ammo from Turkey has been cut off for fears of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant. Twin bombings in Iranian Embassy and Ambassador's residence in Lebanon, carried out by jihadists. Iranian embassy is located in Hezbollah stronghold. Iran and Hezbollah recognize the unique opportunity to bolster Bashar al Assad's position while US-Iranian negotiations are underway. Only the Saudis are providing weapons to the rebels. Hezbollah and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps will proceed with Qalamoun offensive - have already taken Qara. Whoever has Qalamoun controls the northern approach to the capital. Has seen resurgence of polio - traced to Pakistan. Makes it more controversial to take Syrian refugees and asylum seekers. Skepticism about deeper European integration and Schengen expansions Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) has continued trying to absorb another Syrian al Qaeda franchise group, Jabhat al-Nusra, even after al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri (Egyptian) ordered it to stay in Iraq. Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) initially provided support to Jabhat al-Nusra, but eventually became strongest jihadist group in Syria. Has tried to subsume Jabhat, which appealed to al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri (Egyptian), who ordered ISIL to confine efforts to Iraq and allow Jabhat to maintain responsibility for Syria. But ignored the order. Jabhat al Nusra - Leader Abu Mohammad al-Golani US is trying to bring enough rebel factions to the negotiating table with al Assad to work out a power-sharing agreement. But US is reluctant to have Iran participate in the Syrian talks - Saudis want Iran out of the negotiations. Most serious rift btw rebels and al-Qaeda forces since start of war. Provoked by ISIL's raids, detentions, assassinations, mutilations, and strict sharia law in rebel-held territories, the Jaish al-Mujahideen and Syrian Revolutionaries Front attacked ISIL positions across northern Syria. ISIL threatened to withdraw from conflict with Bashar if fighting didnt stop. Large number of rebels even accuse group of being a creation of the Syrian regime. Powerful Islamic Front has also criticized the group, especially for the murder of popular leader of Anshar al-Sharia. Jabhat al-Nusra, which also claims to be joined with Al Qaeda, has also taken ISIL positions in the north, with the help of longtime ally Ahrar al-Sham. ISIL has found itself in unsustainable two-front war in Iraq and Syria, fighting with practically all armed forces in both states. ISIL is headed by meglomaniac leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi Conflict will not end by 2014, but regime will make significant gains. Bashar will be able to manipulate elections scheduled for the spring to keep Alawites in power Geopolitics of the Syrian civil war - 1916 Sykes Picot agreement separated the middle east into an awkward group of states. Syria is bounded by the Taurus mountains to the north. Referred to by Arabs as the Sham - land to the left, referring to the Holy sites of the Hijaz. Syria has always been in the unfortunate position of being surrounded by stronger powers. Sea of Marmara, Nile delta, Mesopotamia -- all posed major threats as larger population and economic centers. Whenever those nations expanded, they first came into contact with Syria. Thus only twice before was Syria an independent state. Hellenistic Seleucid dynasty (301-141 BC) based out of Antioch in the far south of Turkey on the Mediterranean. And during the Umayyad Caliphate - based out of Damascus (661-749 AD). Ultimately, the country is a borderland. An aspiring Syrian state requires sea coastline to participate in trade and protect against naval powers. But also needs cohesive hinterland to protect food security. Syria's rugged geography and various ethnic minorities have been a major challenge to this imperative. In the western coastline, various minorities like the Alawites, Christians, and Druze have lived, distrustful of outsiders to the west and local rulers to the east, but willing to cooperate with whoever will protect their security. Persecuted sects can hunker down in the extensive mountain chains. Euphrates originates in eastern Turkey and flows through the east of Syria. Damascus is formed by the desert oasis flowing from the Barada river. It is protected from the coast by the Anti-Lebanon mountains and the Jabal al Druze mountains, and huge desert to the east. The city is a virtual fortress, but in order to produce capital, it needs a corridor running West through the mountains to the Lebanese coastal ports, as well as a corridor north through the semi-arid steppes of Homs, Hama, Idlib, to Aleppo. Aleppo is a natural trade corridor reaching out to the markets of the Fertile Crescent, Anatolia, the Mediterranean via the Homs Gap, and Damascus. Aleppo has historically been vulnerable to Anatolian powers, and can use its relative distance to rebel against Damascus at times. But it is a vital economic hub of any power in Damascus. The deserts to the east have been traveled by small groups of nomads, from caravan traders to bedouin tribesmen, to Islamist militants. Eastern Orthodox Christians were the majority in Syria during the Byzantines. The muslim conquests led to a major Shiite population. Over time, Sunni empires originating from Mesopotamia, Asia Minor, and the Nile made Syria what it is today - a Sunni nation. Sunnis dominated the steppes from Damascus to Aleppo, while minorities thrived in the relative protection of the coast, separated by mountains. The minorities formed small coalitions and constantly searched for a sea power to ally with to counterbalance the sunni majority. The French utilized these minorities, allying with the Maronite Christians of Lebanon, who came to dominate the sea trade out of major ports, at the expense of poorer Sunni merchants. Also allied with a group called the Nusayris, which would later become the Alawites, who lived along the Syrian coast. Then the French mandate ended in 43. Led to the bloodless coup by Hafez al Assad in 1970 that began the Alawite rule. It is somewhat ironic that the French now support the Sunnis and Saudis against a regime they helped create. The trend of a powerful Alawite minority ruling Syria is not going to change anytime soon. Hezbollah needs to secure the supply chain from Damascus through the Bekaa, as well as the Orontes river valley to the Alawites on the coast. Assad is pushing north to regain the route to Aleppo. The regime will utilize temporary cease fires to conserve its resources and bring food supplies to the Aleppo garrisons. Assad knows that the Kurds are more of a threat to the Turks than to the regime. In the 1800's a Lebanese civil war between Maronites and Druze spread to Damascus. Now the civil war is spreading from Damascus to Lebanon - in reverse. The US primary regional goal is rapprochement with Iran - one of the concessions it will likely allow is for Assad to remain in power. Syria's main threat comes from the north - Turkey. And ultimately, Syria needs to remain linked to the coast, the economic heartland.

UAE

Balances btw Iran and Saudis Dubai has close ties with Tehran. President Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan - Ruler of Abu Dhabi holds presidency customarily.

Bahrain

King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa Manama 1.5 million population Al Khalifa family has ruled since late 1700's Dependent on Saudis Possibility of Saudi-Bahraini political union. Peninsula Shield Force - 2011. Quelled Shia-led uprising. Population is Shiite Lacks energy wealth.

Kyrgyzstan

Bishkek 5.5 million Pres Almazbek Atambayev (Northerner) 11-PRESENT. Southern protests occur on a regular basis over issues such as the detention of opposition figures in the south and security sweeps for alleged militants operating in the area. Traditionally nomadic Will join Customs Union Ferghana Valley - Has several exclaves in T&U Ethnic/border conflict with Uzbekistan (2010). Uzbeks are primarily located in far south of country. There is tension between the Kyrgyz and Uzbek communities in the south (notably Osh) over land and housing, and relations with Uzbekistan were strained following the flight of refugees into Kyrgyzstan after clashes in the Uzbek city Andijan in 2005. Most of the country is only nominally Muslim, although there has been a resurgence of religious identity. Govt is worried about Hizb-ut Tahrir making inroads in South Divided btw north and south - 2 armed revolutions in last 10 years - (Southern politicians attempted coup) Southern is radicalizing (Islam) North-Bishkek, South-Osh and Jalal-Abad. Power has shifted back and forth Strong Russian military presence - Kant Air Base. Kicked US out of Manas Air Base-will let lease expire in 2014. Russians have a significant presence in the north and in the capital, Bishkek. Virtually no energy resources - but rich in mineral resources - gold Protests over ownership of Kumtor gold mine-South wants nationalization. Has been locked in a bitter dispute with Canadian mining firm Centerra, whose operations in the Kumtor gold mine in the eastern part of the country have been the source of protests Mountainous territory makes infrastructure difficult/expensive Tulip Revolution - Part of the three 'color revolutions' that Russia blames Western NGO's and state-sponsored groups. 2005. Overthrew President Askar Akayev (90-05) and his northern government after the parliamentary elections of March 2005. The protests were largely sparked by people in Jalalalbad and Osh in the south. The revolution sought the end of rule by Akayev and by his family and associates, who in popular opinion had become increasingly corrupt and authoritarian. Following the revolution Akayev fled to Kazakhstan and then Russia. Pres Kurmanbek Bakiyev took over after Akayev, a southerner from Jalal-Abad and a member of the southern Ak Jol party. In 2010, Bakiyev, too, was ousted in a revolution, which was in large part due to corruption and nepotism but that nevertheless began in the northern city of Talas before spreading to Bishkek and elsewhere across the country. Led to introduction of parliamentary system, but in reality the president held all the power. Upcoming local elections. Mayoral elections will be held in the key cities of Bishkek (most populous city in North) and Osh (most populous city in south) on Jan. 15, marking the first time that mayoral candidates were nominated by city governments rather than by the president. Osh in particular will be a tight race. Osh is notable not only for its political polarization and regular protests but also as a major site of ethnic tensions between Kyrgyz and Uzbeks, the latter of which make up a significant minority in southern Kyrgyzstan. These tensions occasionally lead to violence, such as the June 2010 riots in Osh and Jalal-Abad that nearly precipitated a military intervention from Uzbekistan. Already there have been claims that riots could occur if Myrzakmatov loses the elections, and there are reports of leaflets being spread in markets and other public places urging action against ethnic Uzbek deputies and listing their home addresses. China, Russia, and Canada are worried about the potential for unrest.

Japan

Shinzo Abe Liberal Democrats (Have ruled the country from 1955 to 2009). Tokyo 128 million Opposition - Democratic Party of Japan - briefly held power from 2009-12, until Fukushima. Led by popular politician Junichiro Koizumi, who has been criticizing Abe's reopening of nuclear facilities. 2009 marked a substantial change in Japan's political landscape, allowing party competition and limiting the LDP's stranglehold on government. 2011 Fukushima disaster Ryukyu islands are the chains south of Japan to Taiwan - including Okinawa and Senkaku/Diaoyu. The chain from Taiwan to Philippines is the Luzon Straight. This string is called the First Island Chain. Second Island chain is far further back Has controlled the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands since 1972 Conflict btw Japan and China is btw the third and second largest economies in the world Will continue to monitor its ADIZ energetically. Rising number of jet scramblings to intercept aircraft breaching the ADIZ. Liberal Democrats terming military as 'active pacifism' effectively means full military normalization. And US wants this to balance against China. Japan has never fully apologized for WWII. Carried out acts such as the Bataan Death March, the sacking of Manilla, and the massacres in Singapore. The Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo honors the souls of Japan's war dead, including war criminals who massacred civilians and slave laborers and tortured prisoners of war. Very contentious issue, especially since the Emperor visited the shrine. In December, Shinzo Abe visited the Yasukuni war shrine, the first time a Japanese leader has done so in seven years. Japan has four times as many warships as the UK, and more tanks than Germany. Has niche capacities for special operations forces and strong diesel-electric submarines, and is developing new amphibious capabilities. Koreans are deeply bitter about Japanese cruelties during the occupation from 1910-45. Airborne early warning and control capabilities are essential to the territorial dispute. These aircraft fly at high altitudes, and are well suited to monitor air and vessel activity around the islands. Chinese do not have Japan's institutional experience that comes with decades of intensive early warning operations, and thus are still in the early stages of development. Chinese have more aircraft than Japan, but lag behind in quality. For the time being, the two sides will prioritize the development of these systems, as they are force multipliers. Japan already imports 10 percent of its LNG from Russia, and this will increase as it diversifies from the Middle East. Will hold stake in LNG export facility at Vladivostok. Japan also holds stake in LNG facilities at Sakhalin 2. Sakhalin has been claimed by both Russia and Japan over the course of the 19th and 20th centuries. This has led to bitter disputes between the two countries over control of the island. Russia seized the island from the Japanese near the end of World War II. Russia and Japan are technically still at war Abe is trying to introduce competition into the electricity sector to lower prices - must split up the regional power company monopolies. De-regulation and privitization of energy sector combined with slow resumption of nuclear power. The modern sector is a relic of the American occupation, which created inefficient regional utility companies, which gained powerful political power (especially with the Liberal Democratic Party). Little connectivity btw regional power grids. Although the country has some hydroelectric power plants and other sources of renewables, it must import fossil fuels or develop nuclear power. Fukushima led to the shut down of all nuclear reactors, and it is not known when they will restart. Public outcry after the meltdown led to the defeat of the Democratic Party of Japan. Liberal Democratic Party came back to power, and its deep ties to the electric utilities and strong approval ratings allowed it to pass the first comprehensive energy reform of the postwar era in November. Will create an independent systems operator to control electricity flow across the entire country, and open up the sector to competition. Process will not be completed until 2020, and another political change could derail the plan. Loss of nuclear power has led to a massive increase in imports of gas and to a lesser extent, oil. Trying to increase presence in Indian Ocean - requesting to take part in Malabar training exercise with US and India - in the past India has rejected this request, not wanting to antagonize China. The Japanese just concluded their first-ever bilateral naval exercise with the Indians in the Bay of Bengal in December 2013. The Indian government also affirmed in early January that Tokyo and New Delhi have agreed to hold more regular bilateral air and naval exercises. Would better allow Japan to protect its maritime sea routes. Since the end of World War II, Japan's naval structure has been expressly geared toward the direct protection of the home islands. Had relied on the US for naval protection. But with the US preoccupied in the Middle East, Japan was encouraged to build up its own navy. Emperor Hirohito - 1926-89. Hideki Tojo - Former general of army, then PM of Japan for most of WW2. Was directly responsible for Pearl Harbor. After the end of the war, Tōjō was arrested, sentenced to death for Japanese war crimes, and hung.

Switzerland

Bern 8 million Direct Democracy - Typically uses system of frequent popular referendums to deal with major political questions. The people are given a direct say in their own affairs under Switzerland's system of direct democracy, which has no parallel in any other country. They are invited to the polls several times a year to vote in national or regional referendums and people's initiatives. 2/3 of the population speaks German. During the Cold War the Swiss maintained one of Europe's largest land-based armies. The extremely costly militia system, under which every adult male was conscripted and remained in the reserves until middle age, has been slowly streamlined. Banking system is huge. At the same time Switzerland has been gradually acceding to international pressure to allow greater scrutiny/transparency of its famously secretive banking sector, amid growing concerns about money-laundering and the financing of terrorist groups. Has remained neutral for almost 500 years. Resists full institutional integration with Europe for strategic reasons. Tries to find a balance between independence and integration with the rest of Europe. The Swiss generally understand that, because of their country's topography and position, they are dependent on good relations with their neighbors and the rest of Europe to secure the country's economic well-being. Did not join the EU till 2002, trying to keep its neutrality. Switzerland's approach and success thus far is likely to gain attractiveness among Euroskeptics and be used to justify the benefits of a more selective approach to European integration. Pressure on Switzerland will likely radicalize the Euroskeptics in Switzerland and divide the Swiss public, especially as business representatives warn of the dire economic consequences from worse relations with the European Union. Has followed a discriminatory approach to immigration, fearing the country is overpopulated. EU is worried that this policy will spread to neighboring countries. Immigration has long been a controversial issue in the country. But like most of Europe, Switzerland has a low birth rate and an aging society. Therefore, attracting foreign labor is vital to ensure the sustainability of the work force and social security system. Switzerland's high salaries and economic resilience to the European crisis have attracted people to the country. This high level of immigration fuels debates about having a more restrictive policy. Switzerland will hold a referendum Feb. 9 on the introduction of annual quotas on residence permits for foreigners. The Swiss business community and government have opposed the referendum Swiss People's Party - right wing, euroskeptical and anti-immigration. Largest party in country. Gaining popularity. Does not want to lose sovereignty to EU. With the Swiss system historically being very decentralized, strong fear of centralizing forces. Mountainous territory with few natural resources. Is an important transit state with extremely high exports - highly dependent on EU market. Stronger proportionate exporter to EU than Germany, mostly in pharmaceuticals and machinery. Unexpectedly rejected EU admission in 92. Since then, Bern's strategy has been to seek deeper integration with Europe in specific areas through bilateral agreements while avoiding full membership. During both World War I and World War II, Switzerland managed to keep a stance of armed neutrality, and was not involved militarily. However, precisely because of its neutral status, Switzerland was of considerable interest to all parties involved, as the scene for diplomacy, espionage, commerce, and as a safe haven for refugees. In the course of WW2, detailed invasion plans were drawn up by the German military command, such as Operation Tannenbaum, but Switzerland was never attacked. The Swiss military strategy was changed from one of static defence at the borders, to a strategy of organized long-term attrition and withdrawal to strong, well-stockpiled positions high in the Alps known as the National Redoubt. This controversial strategy was essentially one of deterrence. The idea was to cause huge losses to German forces and render the cost of invading too high. During an invasion, the Swiss Army would cede control of the economic heartland and population centres, but retain control of crucial rail links and passes in the National Redoubt. Attempts by Switzerland's small Nazi party to effect an Anschluss with Germany failed miserably, largely as a result of Switzerland's multicultural heritage, strong sense of national identity, and long tradition of direct democracy and civil liberties. Nazi Germany repeatedly violated Swiss airspace. Later, Hitler and Hermann Göring sent saboteurs to destroy Swiss airfields, but the sabotage team was captured by the Swiss army before it could cause any damage. As a neutral state bordering Germany, Switzerland was easy to reach for refugees from the Nazis. However, Switzerland's refugee laws, especially with respect to Jews fleeing Germany, were strict and have caused controversy since the end of World War II. Narrowly approved referendum in Bern. Will enact immigration quotas for EU citizens, against the wishes of the countries political and economic leadership. Used to be able to visit, work, or reside in Switzerland freely. Its decision has emboldened Euroskeptical parties elsewhere to enact populist policies. Populism - Groundswell of mass opinion overwhelms the elite. Switzerland Reverses the Trend of European Integration - While not a member of the EU, Bern has moved towards European integration through bilateral deals with Brussels. Right-wing Swiss Peoples' Party pushed through immigration quota referendum. Will require gov to renegotiate with EU over free movement of peoples. The referendum passed with 50.3 percent of the vote despite warnings by the government, economic federations and labor unions that approval would harm Switzerland's relations with the European Union and jeopardize economic stability. The Swiss are concerned that high immigration is putting pressure on real estate and labor markets, straining transportation infrastructure and raising the crime rate. EU says the referendum violates relationship with Brussels. Swiss have three years to implement the law, so there will not be immediate effects. EU cannot isolate Bern bc it relies on the Swiss for strong economic ties and transit. On the other hand, the European Union needs to make the consequences of implementing a quota system in Switzerland as evident as possible by putting the status of the bilateral agreements in question. This pressure could lead to additional referendums to reverse anti-EU decisions, out of fear of being isolated from trade bloc. France's National Front, Britain's U.K. Independence Party and Italy's Northern League were quick to praise Switzerland's referendum, while the Alternative for Germany party called for a domestic debate on immigration and integration policy.

Eritrea

Former Italian colony

Sao Tome and Principe

Former Portuguese colony (one of five)

Angola

Luanda Former Portuguese colony (one of five) Exclave province of Cabinda- Angolan troops invaded Republic of Congo's land in October to fight the Front for the Liberation of the Enclave of Cabinda (wants Cabinda's independence since 1963). Rebels retreat to ROC territory- little army presence there bc of mountanous and porous territory. 25-year civil war Major hub for trade routes to central africa. Luanda is one of the few countries that can actually pay Asian developers to construct inroads to extraction of diamonds & copper in southern DRC Competing for one of four paths into DRC's Katanga and Zambia's Copperbelt minerals - cobalt and copper. Shortest route, but requires the DRC to improve their rail network to port city of Lobito China imports 15% of its total oil from Angola. Achieved independence in 1975. Jose Eduardo dos Santos - President of Angola since 79. Used power to bring himself great riches.

Spain

Madrid PM Mariano Rajoy. Popular Party. Won elections in 2011. Pledged not to raise taxes or use public money to assist banks in distress. But had to do both with crisis (although the banking bailout was relatively small). Froze pensions and cut spending in health care and education, which led to protests. Plagued by corruption scandals, including Barcenas Affair, where treasurer of party had been collecting money from businessmen and paying party leaders. Popular Party (Center-right) and Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (Center-left) have traditionally been the two largest parties (conservatives v socialists). Economic crisis has led to rise of leftist parties, which oppose austerity measures and have criticized Germany's leadership of EU. Next election is in 2015, could mark end of traditional two-party system, leading to fragmented system where coalitions involve smaller parties. Catalonia has for centuries claimed independence. One of the wealthiest in Spain, but hasn't received its proportionate share of fiscal revenues. Will hold independence referendum in 2014. But the region is led by a fragile ruling coalition. Ruled by the Convergance and Union - Convergence is far more supportive of independence than Union. Originally pushed simply for greater fiscal autonomy. President of Catalonia is Artur Mas. Madrid considers the referendum illegal, because the Spanish Constitution does not allow for secession. Even if on the surface it seems Catalonia is making progress, it has in fact gotten worse. September 2014 will be the 300th anniversary since Spanish forces defeated Catalans in aftermath of Spanish War of Succession. Capital is Barcelona. Catalans feel they receive little in the way of benefits and assistance in return for their production. Financially, exports have recovered, interest rates on sovereign debt dropped, and Spain exited long recession. But the problem is unemployment. Led to large wave of emigration and declining support for mainstream politicians. Second highest unemployment rate in Europe, after Greece Rise of grassroots movements. Platform of People Affected by Mortgages was created to fight evictions in Spain and reform mortgage laws, but formed ties with other grassroots groups. Controls Canary Islands, Ceuta and Melilla - all on the coast of Morocco, except for Canaries, which are islands off the coast of Morocco Spanish neutrality during WW2 - The Spanish State under General Franco was officially non-belligerent during World War II. This status, although not recognised by international law, was intended to express the regime's sympathy and material support for the Axis Powers, to which Spain offered considerable material, economic, and military assistance. Despite this ideological sympathy, Spain did not enter the war as a belligerent and, in fact, frustrated German designs on Gibraltar and stationed field armies at the Pyrenees to dissuade Germany from occupying the Iberian Peninsula. This apparent contradiction can be explained by Franco's pragmatism and his determination to act principally in his regime's interests, in the face of Allied economic pressure, Axis military demands, and Spain's geographic isolation. Unemployment is still at record levels. This in turn hurts domestic consumption, which in turn hurts domestic companies - in particular the small and medium sized enterprises, that were previously the backbone of the European economy. Meanwhile salaries have been frozen while the cost of living keeps rising. This limits the amount of credit available for small and medium companies, which are heavily dependent on banks for financing. The banks simply want to improve their financial situaiton and limit their exposure to bad loans. Turns into a vicious cycle. Govts under pressure from EU to reduce deficits freeze pensions and salaries in the public sector while increasing taxes and reducing social spending. Households see their purchasing power decline and some reduce consumption. Banks are scared of making loans that they could never get back, but they are enjoying relative stability as a result of the intervention of the European Central Bank. This means small and medium sized companies are struggling to survive, as consumption decreases and credit conditions remain tight. Catalan government will use its plans for referendum as leverage in negotiations with Madrid. PM Rajoy will threaten to annul the referendum by taking it to the Constitutional Court. Divisions within the Catalan movement will prevent it from making a unilateral declaration of independence. Unemployment is staying the same because workforce is shrinking as people emigrate, retire, or stop looking for jobs. Means less people paying taxes. Most of the jobs being created are part-time. Spain is committed to shrinking public sector jobs to comply with EU policies. Has seen record numbers of nationals and foreigners emigrate. South America, Morocco, and Romania are the top locations for emigrants. Shrinking and aging population.

Nicaragua

Managua President Daniel Ortega. Led Nicaragua's post-revolutionary junta in 1979. Assumed presidency from 1984-90 and made country a key ally of Soviets. Then took 17-year hiatus, to return to power in 2007. Strong populist policies. Ruling Sandinista National Liberation Front Opposition Independent Liberal Party weak and divided Major constitutional revisions will pass without opposition, allowing Ortega to run for office a fourht time, to rule by decree, lift ban on military officers serving govt positions, and formalizing Nicaragua's claim to disputed territory with Columbia. Another term will allow the 67-year old to appoint a successor, which could be his wife Rosario Murillo. Elections will take place in November 2016 Economy is very stable, thanks to strong FDI due to lowest minimum wage in ventral America. Has largely avoided the drug violence of Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador. No challenge from military, bc very close relationship, especially since Ortega's brother led army for a while. No natural resources.

USA

Navigable rivers have contributed to economic success. 12,000 miles of rivers maintained by US Army Corps of Engineers through farmland. But infrastructure for transport is aging, which could hurt US competitiveness. Mississippi, Ohio, and Illinois are all the busiest rivers, and each have expansive lock systems. Most of these locks are 80 years old, and were only developed to be used for up to 50yrs, leading to unexpected delays. Very underfunded. With the expansion of Panama Canal, Gulf and East coast cities are trying to deepen ports.US Army Corps of Engineers expects $125 billion will revamp entire inland waterway system. Under the current budget, upgrading the system will be a long, drawn out process, and unintended delays are likely to continue. Agriculture, coal, petroleum, and fertilizer industries all depend on river transport. Water is least expensive mode of long distance shipping (2 cents per mile, rail 4 cents per mile, 18 cents per mile). cost increases due to delays could lead to prices rising. Arctic security play only a minor role in overall US defense policy-only focused on air and missile defense. Kodiak Island is used for monitoring (South of Alaska). No sizable land unit designed to operate in Arctic.

OPEC

OPEC can no longer influence prices b/c of increased production in the US, Canada, Russia, and Brazil Potential for revitalized oil production in Iraq and Iran. Could lead to lower prices than the cartel desires. OPEC's biggest consumer was the US, but it is increasing its own domestic production. Ultimately, emerging markets in Asia will set global demand. The region is now the world's biggest importer. Bigger than Europe and N. Africa combined. Historically was used as a political tool to increase oil prices or place embargo on exports, it will not be trying to keep oil prices reasonably low. Low prices will ensure that developing markets in Asia can afford to keep buying the oil and thus prevent alternatives such as shale, electric cars or LNG tech from becoming economically feasible. Organized in the 1960's. Unified oil export policies, and hopefully dictating a high price for their oil. Only Saudis and to a limited extent, the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait, retain the ability to voluntarily adjust production levels. Other members must maintain production to finance their budgets. Production is also set to take off in Canada and potentially Brazil. Most of the US's increase in production has been offset by Libya's chaos Iraq and Iran will be the key issue.

TPP

Trans-Pacific Partnership. Congress has again interfered w/ its implementation. Allows the US and 10 other Pacific rim countries to trade goods w near zero tariffs, and to deal more freely in services, investment, public projects, and intellectual property. Congress in the past passed three trade agreements without fast track (Panama, Columbia, South Korea in 2011) Is the economic/commercial agenda of Washington's pivot to Asia-Pacific. Seeks to draw states like Malaysia nad Vietnam further into US economic system. But it also excludes Washington's oldest allies - Thailand and Philippines. US and China even might come to accords to let China join. Washington never intended to shut out China permanently, but to make the rules so that China or any country seeking to join would have to play by them. Have been trying to finalize deal by year's end. Obama had planned to sell TPP to region w his cancelled trip to Indonesia.

Grenada

Operation Urgent Fury - 83. Gained independence in 74. Sir Eric Gairy had led the country to independence and was head of state and the Grenada United Labor Party. His private army, the Mongoose Gang, battled with gangs fielded by the New Jewel Movement (NJM). NJM began getting trained out of country. When Gairy was out of state, the NJM led military coup. Led by Maurice Bishop, they announced a revolution and the new People's Revolutionary Government. In 83, Bernard Coard seized power and placed Bishop under house arrest. Under mass protests, Bishop escaped, but was rounded up and executed. Army formed military council to rule country. The army announced a four-day total curfew where anyone seen on the streets would be subject to summary execution. The Bishop government began constructing the Point Salines International Airport with the help of Britain, Cuba, Libya, Algeria, and other nations. The U.S. government accused Grenada of constructing facilities to aid a Soviet-Cuban military build-up in the Caribbean based upon the 9,000 ft length, which could accommodate the largest Soviet aircraft like the An-12, An-22 and the An-124, which would enhance the Soviet and Cuban transportation of weapons to Central American insurgents and expand Soviet regional influence. Bishop's government claimed that the airport was built to accommodate commercial aircraft carrying tourists, pointing out that such jets could not land at Pearl's Airstrip on the island's north end (5,200 ft) and couldn't be expanded because its runway abutted a mountain and the ocean at the other end. President Reagan began issuing warnings about the threat posed to the United States and the Caribbean by the "Soviet-Cuban militarization" of the Caribbean as evidenced by the excessively long airplane runway being built, as well as intelligence sources indicating increased Soviet interest in the island. He said that the 9,000-foot runway and the numerous fuel storage tanks were unnecessary for commercial flights, and that evidence pointed that the airport was to become a Cuban-Soviet forward military airbase The invasion was highly criticised by the governments in Canada, Trinidad and Tobago, and the United Kingdom. Castro made the comment,"Now there are four of us."The reference was to four Marxist governments in the Caribbean area: Cuba,Nicaragua,Jamaica,Grenada. Claimed to be protecting near 200 American students on the island.

Yemen

Sanaa President Abd Rabboh Mansour Hadi 24 million ppl Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. Was location of the first jihadist attack against US in 1992 at hotel in Aden where Marines were stationed on their way to Somalia. AQAP formed in 2009, when Yemeni jihadist groups joined with remants of Saudi al Qaeda franchise, which had been devastated and forced to seek refuge in Yemen. Most active transnational jihadist group. Internet magazines (Arabic-language Sada al-Malahim and English-language Inspire). Was forced to pull back from areas it had conquered and return to its hideouts in Yemen's rugged, remote interior in mid-2012. Leader of AQAP - Nasir al-Wuhayshi (Abu Basir) Nasir escaped from Sanaa prison in 2006 and used to be Bin Laden's secretary. Refrained from declaring an emirate in southern Yemen bc its control was tenuous and it lacked the ability to provide services for the people. Has suffered serious setbacks over the past 18 months and has lost most of its gains. Obstacles to a federalist system in Yemen - Approved breakup of Yemen into 6 regions. There are a number of issues with the notion of provincial autonomy in Yemen, where each tribe, sect and region is vying for rights and revenue from the country's resources. Will most likely not be implemented. The north is ruled primarily by tribal politics and contains regions where competing sects live in proximity, such as the al-Houthi rebels and Salafists in the northern province of Saada. Unlike the north, the south tends to be more religiously liberal and more socialist, and much of the country's energy resources are located within its territory. This is due to the south's history first as a British protectorate, from the early 1800s until 1967, and later as an independent Marxist state (the People's Democratic Republic of Yemen) until 1990, when the north and south merged. Northern Yemen, the Yemen Arab Republic, was far more tribal and Islamic. In 1994 the south tried to break away, leading to civil war. The north won the war in part by using jihadist fighters, who had returned to Yemen from Afghanistan, against the southern socialists. Southerners' disdain for the north grew after the war when northern tribes seized much of the land and jobs belonging to those in the south. In addition, jihadism has been spreading its roots within the country since the 1990s, and in 2009 one of al Qaeda's most active and prominent jihadist franchises, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, was formed. Yemen can truly be governed only under the control of a leader with a somewhat reliable military apparatus and the ability to pit potentially threatening groups against one another. Pres Saleh did this masterfully. Saleh made it a point to co-opt sheikhs in political and military arenas and solidified his power through the promotion of clansmen and his own relatives in Yemen's state institutions. It was through these connections and the use of a complex system of bribes, patronage and threats that Saleh was able to hold the country together without having complete control over all of Yemen. Then came the Arab Spring. When Saleh used the military to fire on protesters, an important tribal ally (the al-Ahmar tribe, which controlled a significant portion of the military) sided with the protesters and demanded that Saleh step down. GCC forced him to step down. Although Hadi is the current president, he is not the overwhelmingly powerful leader Saleh was; he has struggled to overcome some significant constraints such as the fragmented military he inherited after the 2011-12 unrest. Hadi has tried for two years to consolidate control and has even restructured the military to ensure loyalty to him, but Saleh and his devoted factions remain within the government and have prevented Hadi from fully grabbing power. Hadi has also been unable to effectively use threatening groups and sects against one another as Saleh once did. It is thought that a federalist system may appease the al-Houthis in the north who have been expanding their control south toward Sanaa, seizing land from local tribes. Moreover, southerners who are part of the Southern Separatist Movement, also known as Hirak, have been calling for greater autonomy and a federalist state. An attempt toward federalism in the early 1990s failed due to the fact that the political systems in place in both the north and south were so different that a central political system of government could not be agreed upon. Nearly all sects and factions participating in the national dialogue and talks with Hadi would like to see a six-region divide -- four in the north and two in the south. However, Hirak is vehemently opposed and is instead demanding a return to the two-state divide between north and south. It is unlikely that Sanaa would implement such a system because the creation of an autonomous and united south could lay the foundation for the south to secede.the bulk of the oil fields and energy infrastructure is in the south and east, with export infrastructure located on the coasts along the west and south. There are already disputes over how the revenue and wealth from the energy infrastructure is split among the provinces. Should each region of a federalist Yemen be responsible for its own local government and policies, the issue of funding and oil revenue would be a point of major disagreement. Even if it does implement such a system, the radical elements of Hirak and rebel al-Houthi fighters have distanced themselves from the mainstream members of their groups who are participating in talks with Hadi. As a result, it is unlikely that it would stop them from pursuing their ultimate goals through violence. Moreover, with or without federalism, al Qaeda has vowed to establish an Islamic emirate in the Arabian Peninsula and will continue to use violence in an attempt to bring down whichever government is in control and whatever group stands in its way.

Bosnia-Herzegovina

Sarajevo Centuries of invasions -- most notably by the Ottoman and Austro-Hungarian empires -- wrought a complex ethnic landscape comprising Catholic Croats, Orthodox Serbs and Muslim Bosniaks. Overlapping foreign interests in Bosnia persist, with the European Union identifying Bosnia as a potential member and Turkish companies serving as a significant source of investment in the country. (Roughly 2 million people of Bosniak ancestry live in Turkey.) Present political crisis resulted from the Dayton Agreement of 1995, which ended the Bosnian war. The peace treaties created a largely decentralized federation comprising two autonomous entities, the Federation of Bosnia-Herzegovina and Republika Srpska, and one region with local government, the Brcko District. dding to the complexity, the peace agreements created a three-member presidency composed of a member of each major ethnic group. Perhaps unsurprisingly, a mechanism meant to please everyone ended up upsetting most everyone. The effort to create ethnic balance made decision-making complex and inefficient. The original Dayton Accords envisaged a transition to a less cumbersome system, but political and ethnic divisions made this impossible. Lack of central control limited ability to transition from planned economy to capitalism. Remittances from Bosnians abroad is important for the economy, but after the European crisis, these have fallen dramatically. Meanwhile, prices on utilities and health care have risen in recent years, further reducing households' purchasing power. 2/3 youth are unemployed. Unemployment rates are relatively higher in the Federation of Bosnia-Herzegovina than in the Republika Srpska. And international organizations have repeatedly criticized the country for its strong presence of organized crime and the pervasiveness of its shadow economy. Bosnian Protests Create an EU Dilemma - Protests calling for early elections and an end to corruption. Tuzla, where the protests errupted are representative of Balkan instability. he northeastern city served as an economic and cultural center during the Communist years, but a series of privatizations of state-owned companies (some linked to corruption, according to locals) led to firings of workers, and economic decay set in. Recently fired workers at privatized companies, angered by rising unemployment and widespread corruption, initiated the current protests, which soon spread to other cities and morphed into anti-government demonstrations as people saw an opportunity to express their own frustrations and dissatisfaction with the authorities. While some Bosnians criticized protesters' use of violence -- several public buildings and cars have been set on fire -- most share the protesters' anger at the ruling elite. The main protests took place in the Federation of Bosnia-Herzegovina, where the largest Bosniak population lives. Most parts of Republika Srpska, where Serbs are a majority and there is a more centralized government, remained relatively quiet. Bosnian government will probably offer subsidies and financial help to appease protesters. Moreover, the protesters lack the organization and structure to guarantee their continuity as a significant political entity. To a large extent, the protests were spontaneous, with little coordination among demonstrators in different cities. While some informal citizens' groups (such as "Revolt" and "Udar") were linked to the protests in Tuzla, they have yet to operate at the national level. Bosnia's ethnic divides also make it difficult for a countrywide movement to emerge. Meanwhile the EU has wanted to expand to Balkans to pacify the region, and prevent a repeat of the wars which took place in 90's. The European Union provides technical and financial aid to Bosnia. While Bosnia is unlikely to join the European Union in the coming decade, Brussels will probably continue assisting the country -- but considering the European Union's own political and economic troubles, there's little Brussels can do to bring economic prosperity to the country

Zambia

Southern countries are competing for the Copperbelt province north-central. Produces huge amount of copper and cobalt. Limited rail connection to Dar es Salaam port Tanzania's only existing pipeline is the Tazama Pipeline, which carries crude oil from Dar es Salaam to a refinery in Zambia. Only fuels Zambia, and, along with the Tazara Railway, was built to allow Zambia to reduce dependence on apartheid South Africa Now Zambia imports most refined oil through South Africa. The Tamaza is seriously deteriorated. Little strategic importance. Zambia is considering the construction of a second refinery at Hoima, along with seperate pipeline, which would make Tamaza even less significant.

Bolivia

Sucre Pres Evo Morales running for third term in 2014 Coca grows in Western and Central highlands. It is legal in Bolivia for medicinal and traditional cultural purposes. Cocaine manufacturing labs are concentrated in eastern lowlands. By law, excess coca must be destroyed by govt. But sale of coca helps support poor farmers, who are Morales's constituency DEA was kicked out of country in 2008 and State Department stopped assisting counternarcotics last year Cochabamba produces most illegal cocaine. But controlled by Six Federations of the Cochabamba Tropics, a coca growers' group that Morales in pres of, and which funded his presidency. Too politically sensitive to crack down. No realistic opponents in election Cocaine production will not grow unless security improves in Peru, the largest coca source Is experiencing energy boom, as Argentina is importing large amounts of natural gas from Bolivia to feed its high consumption levels.

Mongolia

Ulan Bator PM Norovyn Altankhuyag 22 in coal worldwide Gobi Desert In a year, Mongolia saw its investment reputation spiral downwards Massive Ovoot Tolgoi coal project near Chinese border - sought after by Chinese aluminum company, Chalco Passed the Strategic Entities Foreign Investment Law in 2012 to block Chinese state companies from taking over strategic resources. Also prevented Australia-based mining company Rio Tinto to own Oyu Tolgoi, multi-billion gold and copper mining project Mining sector is huge. Investors are fleeing because spooked by unpredictable legal and political systems. Due to this, parliament overturned Law. Mongolia cannot afford to alienate China, which will continue to be only real customer - will reopen its doors to China Potential for freight shipment with China -- currently only trucks lake khassan - Attempt by Japan to occupy Soviet territory in 38.

Honduras

Tegucigalpa President Porfirio Lobo Sosa. Emphasized creation of nationwide gendarme, the Military Police for Public Order, and deployed the army on patrols. November elections 2009 political crisis - coup that forced former president Manuel Zelaya into exile. His supporters protested for months and he was eventually allowed to return to Honduras in 2011 Zelaya's wife Xiomara Castro of the leftist coalition Liberty and Refoundation (Libre). Criticized the government's emphasis on military as law enforcement body, undoubtedly because of the military's role in her husband's overthrow. Wants redistributive policies such as land reform. Will meet resistance from conservative business elite and armed forces. Would not have much success nationalizing businesses or expropriating land. Juan Orlando Hernandez of the conservative ruling National Party. Handpicked by Sosa. Running on pro-business, law-and-order platform. Relies on foreign capital. Most important foreign relationship is w the US. Part of the strategically important Caribbean Basin, located near maritime corridors connecting US energy and agricultural centers to global markets. This is why US frequently intervened militarily in Central America prior to WW1 and supported anti-communist governments during the Cold War. After Cold War, primary US interest in region was trade and counter narcotics. US is Honduras's largest trading partner by far and provides security assistance against cocaine traficking and urban gangs. Honduras has the highest homicide rate in the world. Gangs such as MS-13 and Calle 18 run wild. Relies on the IMF for lines of credit. Military traditionally has close ties with Honduran political elite.

The Little Entente

The Little Entente was an alliance formed in 1920 and 1921 by Czechoslovakia, Romania and Yugoslavia with the purpose of common defense against Hungarian revision and the prevention of a Habsburg restoration. France supported the alliance by signing treaties with each member country.

Togo

Was former German colony until post WW1, when it was given to France.

Australia

Capital - Canberra Tony Abbott Energy - 2nd largest coal exporter, 3rd largest LNG exporter. Highly dependent on oil. Oil production decreasing rapidly. Will compete with Russia in Northeast Asia to export LNG. After the discovery of the continent by Dutch explorers in 1606, Australia's eastern half was claimed by Great Britain in 1770 and settled through penal transportation to the colony Normalizing defense ties with Myanmar -- particularly concerned regarding naval issues. First defense attache in Myanmar since 79. Australia is increasingly attracted to the Indian ocean and coast of Myanmar as a strategic asset. In 2012, Australia ended the last of its bilateral sanctions on travel and financial accounts for Myanmar's generals. Australian banks have moved to Myanmar again. In March 2013, Canberra hosted the Myanmar president, promising to help develop the country's health and education. Woodside Petroleum gained rights to explore off the coast. Is looking to expand country's firms' access to Naypyidaw. But it still maintains an arms embargo and has called for a reduction of the army's role in politics, to provide better freedom and welfare for citizens, and better manage its interethnic conflicts. It particularly wants the country to stop pushing Rohingya refugees to Australia's shores. This comes as the Australia is beginning to use naval ships to interdict refugees. Myanmar will use Australian cooperation to gain aid and investment in Myanmar's ports. Australia wants to better integrate Myanmar into ASEAN, and sees Myanmar as an important market for Australia's advanced service industry. Needs stability in Indian Ocean to protect its vulnerable West Coast, which contains its offshore oil and gas hubs, and to secure its sea lines of communication. Expanding its strategic horizon westward.

Latvia

Capital - Riga PM Valdis Dombrovskis Will join Eurozone in Jan, 2014 - 18th member. Most Latvians opposed. Sees Estonia as example - joined in 2011 and grew Banking is dangerously dependent on foreign deposits from former Soviet Union - 49% Heavy reliance on Russian energy imports - all gas and most oil Russian population 27% - Harmony Center party is in opposition but has most seats in Parliament Important role as Russian gas transit

Estonia

Capital - Talinn Important transit for Russian oil One of the few producers of oil shale in world

Somalia

Former Italian colony Al Shabaab - predecesser was Islamic Courts Union. ICU's predecessor was Al-Itihaad al-Islamiya. Leader Ahmad Abdi Godane (Abu Zubayr, Somali, trained in Afghanistan, is more transnationally focused than his other commanders). Led coup/purge of lower commanders (Godane Coup). Has yet to demonstrate the ability to carry out anythin but rudimentary attacks outside Somalia. Al Shabaab can carry out sophisticated attacks in Somalia, but is tactically weak in neighboring countries - regional threat but not transnational Housing troops from Uganda, Ethiopia, and Kenya ICU held govt until Ethiopia invaded and overthrew them in 2007 Has seen spread of polio - traced back to Nigeria Italian invasion of British Somaliland - 1940. When Italy declared war on 10 June 1940, the Italian troops were not prepared for a prolonged war in North Africa or East Africa. As a consequence, Italian dictator Benito Mussolini ordered only some limited aggressive actions to capture territory along the borders of Egypt, Kenya, and Sudan. The Italian Army crossed the border between Italian East Africa. British Somaliland remained part of Italian East Africa for a matter of months. On 16 March 1941, the British executed Operation Appearance which was staged from Aden; The British and Indians re-captured the whole of British Somaliland from its Italian occupiers. The conquest of the British Somaliland was the only campaign victory Italy achieved — without the support of German troops — during World War II against the Allies.

Guyana

Georgetown 60% of its land is claimed by Venezuela. This is land rich in gold and potentially in oil and gas. Venezuelan navy intercepted oil exploration ships in offshore blocks - very promising energy outlook as great deals of energy have been found in neighboring Trinidad & Tobago, and Suriname.

WWI

German victory in Europe would have left the country with access to Russia's vast resources and France's dominant industry US entered after Russian czar abdicated and Germans began attacking neutral countries

Kuwait

Kuwait City Emir Sabah IV The House of Al-Sabah dynasty came to partial power in 1718 Will take the rejected Security Council seat of the Saudis- would benefit Riyadh bc Kuwait is closest ally of Saudis Protected Saud's before they recaptured Penninsula in late 1800's. Sunni state adhering to salafist ideology. 30% Shia- ruling family has isolated them from Iranian influence, as well as shia empowerment in Iraq. Other groups-Muslim Brotherhood, liberals Will be the backchannel spokespiece for Saudis while they take on a more aggressive foreign policy. Has a sizeable Shiite minority and location close to Iraq - is seeking to develop a close working relationship with baghdad in order to keep the Shia at bay.

Peru

Lima World's largest coca source, took over from Columbia after security cracked down. Production high in Southern Peru

Myanmar

Naypyidaw President Thein Sein Large reserves of tin, lead, nickel, gold, manganese, copper, coal - but much of these reserves is found in restive ethnic regions - and local companies do not have the capital or expertise to exploit resources. China has some presence in the industry, to receive minerals vital to its manufacturing economy - copper and nickel. New bill could unrestrict mining, but resource bans will be sticking point (the baning of exporting raw ore or gold/coal. Myanmar is divided into two distinct geological regions An opening will benefit Myanmar's companies- Htoo Trading, Asia World, and Military's Union of Myanmar Economic Holdings Ltd. Ethnic insurgents - Wa, Shan, Karen, Kachin. Karen National Union and Kachin Independence Army are conducting negotiations with government. Human rights violations could deter investors. Gov will coopt insurgents by granting some mineral extraction rights. Vital geographic position btw China and India, and southeast Asian manufacturing powers - Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia Opened up govt in 2010 by writing new constitution and making economic reforms. Will take on low-end industries from China Andaman Sea New constitution was created in 2008. Held national elections in 2010 and 12. Redesigned its regulatory regime to promote trade and investment, and released political prisoners. But military is still dominant player. Dealing with mounting public demands for economic, social, and political reforms. These pressures will be strong with elections coming in 2015. Wants to improve its naval capabilities as it builds on its ports, both for a growing export sector and to secure its role as a transit corridor to southwestern China and northeastern India. Rivaled with Bangladesh and Thailand.

Czech Republic

Prague Western portion of country is Bohemia, eastern is Moravia. Prague Spring-eight months in 1968. Reformist Alexander Dubcek was elected leader of Communist Party in Czechoslovakia. Wanted to decentralize and liberalize the economy and politics. Loosen restrictions on speech, media, and travel. Soviet Union invaded with all Warsaw countries. Gustav Husak took over as president and reversed all reforms. Would remain under Soviet control until 1989 Velvet Revolution (Slovaks call it the Gentle Revolution). Ended 41 years of Communist rule. Nonviolent. November, 1989 police broke up student riot. Poland, Hungary and other Warsaw countries had dismantled Communist govts. Gustav Husak ended single-party state and resigned, Alexander Dubcek became speaker of parliament, and Vaclav Havel was elected President. Havel would be the last president of Czechoslovakia Dissolution of Czechoslovakia (Velvet Divorce)-January 1, 1993. No violence Moderate coal resources Far more buffered than Poland from Moscow. Highly dependent on Russia for gas (80%). Does not have the option for LNG terminal, since landlocked. Although may attempt pipeline linkage to coastal LNG facility. Most integrated economically with the EU than other countries, so less reliant on Russian market and susceptible to Russian economic pressure.

German Democratic Republic (GDR)

1949-90 East Germany The Stasi security force was established to defend the state against political subversion and was helped by the Soviet Army to suppress an anti-Stalinist uprising in 1953. Until 1989, the GDR was governed by the Socialist Unity Party (SED) with other parties functioning in its alliance organisation, the National Front of Democratic Germany. The economy was centrally planned, and predominantly state owned Richest economy in east bloc Emigration to the West was a significant problem — as many of the emigrants were young well-educated people, it further weakened the state economically. The government tried to stop people leaving by fortifying its western borders and in 1961 by establishing the Berlin Wall. Several hundred people were killed by border guards. In 1989, a peaceful revolution in the GDR led to the destruction of the Berlin Wall and emergence of a government committed to liberalization. The following year, free elections were held, and international negotiations led to the signing of the Final Settlement treaty on the status and borders of Germany. The GDR was dissolved and Germany was reunited on 3 October 1990.

Central African Republic

Bangui President Michel Djotodia. Brought to power by Seleka alliance of rebels in March. He then disbanded the alliance, but has lacked control over fragmented rebels. Violence against civilians. 1,000 French troops will be sent to aid African peacekeeping forces. Previously limited presence to protecting airport, French interests, and providing logistical support to peacekeepers. Peacekeeping force will eventually evolve into African Union operation, and potentially UN mission later. France is trying to allow African and French troops to use all necessary measures to protect civilians. Currently 2,500 troops from Cameroon, Chad, Gabon, and Republic of the Congo, operating mainly in Bangui. Was organized by Economic Community of Central African States. Only focusing on hotspots - capital, Bossangoa, and Bouca, which are north of capital. French troops could be used to patrol main roads connecting capital to Cameroon and to northwest. Could prevent attacks in Cameroon, like one that occured in November. But France will avoid direct contact with militants, pushing Africans to respond. Seleka militias are preoccupied with local looting. May be able to prevent spread of violence to neighboring countries and major towns, but smaller rebel groups will continue to operate. Population and economic core of country is in West. Mostly Christian country, but Seleka are Muslim group. UN Security Council decision granted a mandate for African Union and French forces to intervene. France brought in an additional 400 troops from Cameroon. Seleka rebels have began to disarm and leave the capital Local Christian and self-defense militias and military units loyal to President Francois Bozize have started attacking Muslim neighborhoods. Unlikely that France will be able to destroy the rebels. The country is vast, and it is a great distance to the remote eastern region. Uganda's Lord's Resistance Army has managed to survive in eastern part of country despite international attempts to eliminate them. With Bangui calm, Bossangoa has become a hot spot of rebel violence. US is airlifting 850 Burundi troops into the country. French troops have been supported by fighter aircraft based out of N'Djamena Djotodia has already agreed to step down from power after elections in 2014. Paris does not want its decision to be seen as a unilateral move.

Italy

Capital - Rome PM - Matteo Renzi Unified in 1871 - Along with Germany, unified late into federal republic. Giuseppe Garibaldi, Mazzini, Cavour all led to unification. Napoleon's invasion made Italy seek unification. Po River seperates country north and south. Mountains split it east and west. Ruling Party - center-left Democratic Party, Coalition party - center-right People of Freedom (Berlusconi) Consists of the Boot, Siciliy and Sardinia San Marino & Vatican City enclaves. Small Exclave in Switzerland House of Savoy ruled Italy until end of WWII Apennines - Mountain chain that bisects the country down to toe of boot. Adriatic sea on east. Tyrrhenian Sea on west. Ionian sea to southeast by heel of boot. Five Star Movement - since its performance in 2013 elections, it has struggled to realize that real power means real responsibility and constraints. Presence in parliament requires it makes unpopular decisions. Proportional representation for elections make it easier for fringe parties to enter parliament Gustav Line - part of the winter line. Anchored in center by Cassino, which dominated the entrance to the Liri Valley and then Rome. Commonly confused with the Bernhardt line, which was a subsection around Cassino that preceded the Gustav Line. Silvio Berlusconi, 77 years old, came to political stage in 94, promising to clean up the postwar political system. Modern Italy's longest-serving PM. The political system of the past was ripped apart by the 'mani pulite' (polished hands) corruption scandal that tainted ruling and opposition party. Berlusconi had been leader of one of Italy's largest media groups, and president of AC Milan. Ran on center-right platform, supporting business interests against resurgent communism and threats from powerful unions. Huge political charisma, and the most memorable political figure since the war. Unique brand of authoritative populism was loathed by Angela Merkel, who was the figurehead of austerity, and may have planned Berlusconi's resignation as PM in 2011. String of scandals - underage prostitution, embezzlement, nepotism, and corruption. In the end a lowly tax fraud took him down. Senate banished him, but may prove a positive turn of events for him, as the continent moves towards non-traditional parties. Will present himself as defenders of small business and oppose higher taxes and austerity measures pushed by Letta's pro-European Cabinet. Will claim to be victim of an increasingly unpopular mainstream. Will have serious succession issues however - will hand reins over to his daugher Marina Berlusconi. His name will still play strong role in Italian politics. Pitchforks Movement - began in Sicily in 2012. Has been staging rallies across the country, blocking highways, rail, and subway stations. Relatively small, but affecting cities across the country. Began as a group of agricultural producers and trucking companies protesting the rise of fuel and fertilizer prices. Was originally Sicillian in nature, criticizing the central gov in Rome and seeking greater autonomy for the island. Anti-establishment --critical of politicians, austerity measures, and the EU. Staunchly opposed to taxes. Wants the resignation of Italy's govt and new elections. Has moved to the center and more affluent north - the north is more industrial and less dependent on agriculture on the south, but still has found ground to spread. Movement has also attracted all kinds of members from the lower and middle class, bound together by opposition to tax burdens, rising unemployment, and govt corruption. Has also been tied to far-right political parties, and even extremist groups/violent soccer hooligans. Five Star Movement and Berlusconi only supported the movement when they attracted large numbers. Movements such as Pitchforks represent growing trend, where traditional representative institutions - political parties and trade unions - are incapable of channeling social unrest. Very similar to the Red Caps in France, a movement that emerged as an anti-tax group in agriculture but represented a larger sector of the population that did not feel represented by traditional political parties and unions. The crisis is widening the gap btw voters and traditional ruling elites, and that gap is being filled by anti-establishment parties and grassroots movements. These groups often lack cohesion and organization to survive long enough to affect the political system. Links to the far-right and extremist groups reduce support among the public. Little to no domestic production. Depends on energy imports. Italy's main crude oil suppliers are Libya, Azerbaijan, Saudi Arabia, and Russia. The majority of Italy's natural gas imports come from Algeria and Russia. A significant portion of Italy's imported natural gas comes from Algeria and Libya through the Trans-Mediterranean (also known as Enrico Mattei) and Greenstream pipelines, respectively. Italy has the second largest crude oil refining capacity in the European Union after Germany PM Mario Monti (2011-13) Technocratic govt. Centrist party, Civic Choice. Alps act as natural barriers to the North. Has two largest islands in Mediterannean - Sicily and Sardinia. Po Valley is the core of the country - Bisected horizontally by the Po River - heart of industrial north, containing Milan, Venice, and Turin. South is more agricultural and less developed. Italy's rugged geography led to strong regional identities. For this reason, it never formally united until mid 1800's. Primary imperitive is to maintain central govt and unity. Ruling Democratic Party removed support for Letta, allowing Matteo Renzi to take over premiership. Third Italian PM to be sworn in in 2 years without public elections. Italy's elite do not want elections at a time when the public is disaffected with the traditional political parties. Mario Monti, a technocrat, originally took over from Berlusconi in 2011 without elections. At the time, center-left Democratic Party and center-right People of Freedom supported monti fragily, but only lasted for a year. After elections in 2013, no party had seats to form govt, but most surprising was the success of Five Star movement. So the two major parties again formed a fragile coalition, bringing to power Letta. Political infighting led to both parties threatening to withdraw support if not given concessions. When Berlusconi was expelled from Parliament and the center-right split in two, it looked as if Letta was safe. But in late 2013, Renzi, mayor of Florence, was elected secretary general of Democratic party, proposing a reform to the country's electoral law and constitution and presenting measures to boost the economy in parallel with Letta's government agenda. Renzi then encouraged his fellow party members to withdraw support for Letta. While the mainstream parties fight for power, consumption decreases and tight restrictions on credit lead to the failure of small and medium size businesses - these are well known as the backbone of the Italian economy. And now the Pitchfork movement is threatening roads and highways for weeks. The main political parties are afraid of being voted out of power, and so will delay elections as long as possible. Very similar to Greece, where two former rivals are clinging to power, afraid of Syriza and Golden Dawn. Gap btw voters and elite is growing daily, leading to anti-system parties and grassroots movements. Red Brigades - Cold war terrorist organization trained by Soviets. Founded in the 1970s to remove Italy from NATO. Found supporters among the workers and students, and found help from trade unions eager to displace the political elite. It primarily received its funding, small arms and explosives from the Czechoslovakian secret police and the Palestinian Liberation Organization, and its members were trained in Prague, North Africa and Syria. Main area of operation was factory districts in northern Milan and Turin. During this time, the Red Brigades carried out its most notable kidnapping -- that of the Christian Democracy party leader, Prime Minister Aldo Moro, who was later killed by his captors. In 1981, the Red Brigades split into two factions, the largest calling itself the Communist Combatant Party and the minority faction adopting the nom de guerre Union of Combatant Communists. At present, these groups have no support and only carry out limited criminal activities.

Gregorian Calendar

Devised by Pope Gregory, to replace Julius Caesar's Julian Calendar.. Though Catholic countries like Spain and Portugal adopted the new system quickly, many Protestant and Eastern Orthodox countries saw the Gregorian calendar as an attempt to bring them under the Catholic sphere of influence. These states, including Germany and England, refused to adopt the new calendar for a number of years, though most eventually warmed to it for purposes of convenience in international trade. Russia only adopted it in 1918 after the Russian Revolution in 1917 (the Russian Orthodox Church still uses the Julian calendar), and Greece, the last European nation to adopt the Gregorian calendar for civil purposes, did not do so until 1923. In 1793, following the French Revolution, the new republic replaced the Gregorian calendar with the French Republican calendar, commonly called the French Revolutionary calendar, as part of an attempt to purge the country of any remnants of regime (and by association, Catholic) influence. As part of a larger bid to shift power away from the clergy, the shah of Iran in 1976 replaced the country's Islamic calendar with the secular Imperial calendar -- a move viewed by many as anti-Islamic -- spurring opposition to the shah and his policies. After the shah was overthrown in 1979, his successor restored the Islamic calendar to placate protesters and to reach a compromise with Iran's religious leadership. Several countries -- Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia and Iran among them -- still have not officially adopted the Gregorian calendar. The Gregorian calendar's shortcomings have translated into substantial losses in productivity for businesses in the form of extra federal vacation days for employees, business quarters of different sizes and imperfect year-on-year fiscal comparisons. Perhaps the most workable attempt at calendrical reform to date -- The Hanke-Henry Permanent Calendar.

East Timor

Dili - Capital Former Portugese colony First new nation of the 2000's 1000 Timolese died as a result of Indonesia's 25-year rule, which ended in 1999. Portugal had colonized the east part of Timor, Netherlands the West. Portugal invested little in East Timor, and left in 1975. Indonesians invaded within days Falintil guerillas fought the indonesians. Independence referendum in 1999. Militia threatened force for ppl showing up at polls. When referendum showed overwhelming support for independence, militias went on rampage. UN peacekeeping force sent in. Unmiset. Vast offshore oil and gas fields in the Timor Sea hold much potential. East Timor and Australia have agreed to share revenues from the reserves. As a part of the deal, a decision on the disputed maritime border in the area was deferred. Christianity 1.7 million ppl

Croatia

Has become newest member of the EU, bringing the number to 28. Has 50% youth unemployment. Will be neither part of the eurozone or the Shengen Agreement, which allows citizens to cross borders without passport or immigration controls Unstable center-left coalition with approval rating of 24% Among the most corrupt states in Europe, with organized crime and state companies difficult to privatize Will get development funds, further draining Brussels Dalmation Coast will bring many European tourists. Trying to get Qatar to finance an LNG import terminal. Balkans have been plagued by Habsburg Austrian-influenced north and a Third World Ottoman Turkish-influenced south Northern and western countries are resisting it's accession to the Schengen Zone Following WWI, Croatia had a brief stint as an independent nation, then was integrated into Yugoslavia. Croatia went from a small province of a flourishing empire to a major member of a stagnating socialist bloc under Josip Broz Tito. Now is trying to capitalize on its position to develop a profitable tourism economy and become the gateway for energy into the Balkans and Central Europe. Is a substantial refiner and importer of oil. Also seeking to build a LNG import terminal next to Rijeka (signed major deals with Qatar). Hungary has a significant presence in the Croatian energy sector. Hungarian oil and natural gas giant MOL is Hungary's largest company and is one of the government's largest sources of revenue. It is the largest stakeholder in Croatian energy firm INA. INA was a state-owned company until Croatia privatized its energy sector to join the EU. MOL bought 49% of the new shares. MOL has demanded broader management powers from INA, which Croatia has viciously rejected. MOL has in turn threatened to sell its stake in INA, but Croatia can ill afford the several billion $ needed to purchase the shares. Meanwhile, Russian firms have offered to buy the shares. Having one of Croatia's most strategic assets fall into Russian hands would reverse Croatia's western reorientation. But Stratfor assumes MOL's threat is simply meant as pressure tactics to gain a greater hold over the Croatian company. Would allow Orban to have a greater say in the shaping of Croatia's energy future. If Russia moves closer to Hungary, Orban could extract lower natural gas prices and gain economic relief from Moscow. If the EU moves closer to Hungary, he could help move the country away from Russian energy and potentially make Budapest an energy hub for the region.

Cuba

Havana Pres. Raul Castro Without the sponsorship of a global power, Cuba presents no strategic threat to the US. Tough for Democratic presidents to support normalization, as there is strong anti-Castro sentiment in Florida, which controls 27 electoral votes. Cuba would be required to release US contractor Alan Gross from prison and to provide some roadmap to democracy. Cuba is changing. Transformation away from strict communism kept alive by Soviet subsidies. Economic collapse in 90's led to resurgence of tourism. But tourism is not enough. Raul has opened the country up incrementally. He is a fan of the Chinese model of economic management, where each change is made with strict levels of state control and caution. Normalized relations btw Cuba and the US are inevitable at some point, but Cuba may not be ready for it. There is no guarantee that Cuba could even benefit from it. It will be Cuba's slowly evolving economic adjustments that determine how fast the country emerges from isolation. Unusual instances of protests by private vendors. Largely due to Cuban govt enforcing laws meant to regulate the country's small business sector. Political dissidents may be able to coopt rising economic frustration. There will continue to be tension btw private entrepreneurs and central govt. Unusual bc the protests do not involve the political opposition. Protests that do not involve political dissidents is very rare. In 2010, Raul Castro approved economic reforms to allow Cubans to legally own small businesses. Much of Cuba's previously illicit informal economy of private restaurants, small hotels and vendors registered with government authorities after Castro's decision. But new illicit businesses have expanded operations. Increased smuggling of goods into Cuba for sale in-country. Others are reselling goods bought in state stores, while others operate without govt licenses and without paying taxes. So the govt recently passed several laws regulating small businesses who had been legalized in 2010. Has outlawed certain forms of business. Cuban govt will utilize its powerful security/intell services to prevent future protests. With the country preparing for a political transition, it must maintain stability. Read more: Unusual Social Unrest in Cuba | Stratfor Follow us: @stratfor on Twitter | Stratfor on Facebook

Yugoslavia

Josep Broz Tito Belgrade Nazi invasion in 41. Came following coup d'etat. The coup was planned and conducted by a group of pro-Western Serb-nationalist Royal Yugoslav Air Force officers formally led by Air Force General Dušan Simović. Two days before the coup, the Cvetković government had signed the Vienna Protocol on the Accession of Yugoslavia to the Tripartite Pact (Axis). The coup had been planned for several months, but the signing of the Tripartite Pact spurred the organisers to carry it out, encouraged by the British Special Operations Executive. The invasion commenced with an overwhelming air attack on Belgrade and facilities of the Royal Yugoslav Air Force by the Luftwaffe and attacks by German land forces from southwestern Bulgaria. These attacks were followed by German thrusts from Romania, Hungary and the Third Reich (modern-day Austria). Italian forces were limited to air and artillery attacks until 11 April, when the Italian army attacked towards Ljubljana and through Istria and Lika and down the Dalmatian coast. On the same day, Hungarian forces faced practically no resistance. A Yugoslav attack into the northern parts of the Italian protectorate of Albania met with initial success, but was inconsequential due to the collapse of the rest of the Yugoslav forces.

Uruguay

Montevideo 3.3 million people Montevideo was founded as a military stronghold by the Spanish in the early 18th century, signifying the competing claims over the region. Is roughly located on the Banda Oriental, or the "Eastern Shore". Uruguay won its independence between 1811 and 1828, following a four-way struggle between Spain, Portugal, Argentina and Brazil. In 1811, José Gervasio Artigas (the father of Uruguay), who became Uruguay's national hero, launched a successful revolution against the Spanish authorities. Artigas broke from Argentina and took the city of Montevideo, creating an autonomous govt. In 1816, Portuguese troops invaded Montevideo and after four years of war annexed the state into Portuguese Brazil. The 'Thirty-Three Orientals' (led by Juan Antonio Lavalleja, revolutionaries against the empire of Brazil) declared independence from Brazil. Were supported by Argentina. This led to the 500-day-long Cisplatine War. Neither side gained the upper hand and in 1828 the Treaty of Montevideo, fostered by the United Kingdom, gave birth to Uruguay as an independent state.

Sweden

Opposition - Swedish Democrats - Anti-immigration WW2 - Soviets largely persuaded Germany to allow Sweden to be neutral. During the German invasion of the Soviet Union, Sweden allowed the Wehrmacht to use Swedish railways to transport the German divisions along with howitzers, tanks and anti-aircraft weapons and associated ammunition, from Norway to Finland. Iron ore was sold to Germany throughout the war (The Soviet Baltic Fleet at Leningrad was crucial in interrupting this flow of raw material to Nazi Germany). And for the Allies, Sweden shared military intelligence and helped to train soldiers made up of refugees from Denmark and Norway, to be used in the liberation of their home countries. It also allowed the Allies to use Swedish airbases between 1944 and 1945. Was also a safe haven for Norwegian and Danish Jews. General elections scheduled for 2014

Haiti

Port-au-Prince Haiti became the world's first black-led republic and the first independent Caribbean state when it threw off French colonial control and slavery in a series of wars in the early 19th century. Now it is the poorest nation in the Americas. Mountainous and tropical. Origin of voodoo. Brutal dictatorships of the voodoo physician Francois "Papa Doc" Duvalier and his son, Jean-Claude, or "Baby Doc". Tens of thousands of people were killed under their 29-year rule. Hopes that the election in 1990 of Jean-Bertrand Aristide, a former priest, would herald a brighter future were dashed when he was overthrown by the military a short time later. Believed that the US helped military overthrow him. Then in 94, Clinton sends 20,000 troops under UN to restore democratically-elected president Jean-Bertrand Aristide. Operation 'Uphold Democracy'. Authorized by the UN. Before invasion, former pres Carter and others persuaded leaders to step down. Ended in 95 and was replaced by a UN Stabilization Force. Aristide then was pres for 2 more years, then came back to the position from 2000-04, until being overturned in another coup. Lived in exile. François 'Papa Doc' Duvalier - Pres from 57-71. Populist and black nationalist. His rule, based on a purged military, a rural militia known as the Tonton Macoute and the use of a personality cult and voodoo, resulted in the murder of an estimated 30,000 Haitians and the exile of many more Jean-Claude 'Baby Doc' Duvalier - pres from 71-86, when he was overthrown by popular uprising. Though thousands of Haitians were killed or tortured, and hundreds of thousands fled the country.He maintained a notoriously lavish lifestyle and made millions from involvement in the drug trade and from selling body parts from dead Haitians while poverty among his people remained the most widespread. But was strongly anti-communist. Exiled in France. Haiti's most serious underlying social problem, the huge wealth gap between the impoverished Creole-speaking black majority and the French-speaking minority, 1% of whom own nearly half the country's wealth, remains unaddressed. Natural disaster struck with full force early in 2010, when the capital Port-au-Prince was hit by a magnitude 7.0 earthquake - the country's worst in 200 years. Tens of thousands of people were killed

Cameroon

Yaounde Former German colony, until post WW1, when it was split btw French and British Kidnappings and skirmishes along the Cameroon border, leading to intensified border control. Foreign refugees and fighters are fleeing into the country. But these men have limited support base and must exist in remote locations. Has fought with Boko Haram (in far north of country) and Seleka rebels (in east). Seleka rebels are trying to flee French and African troops, and have found refuge on the main road into and out of cameroon/CAR. Muslim refugees are fleeing to Cameroon to avoid reprisals from Christians. Cameroon military wants to prevent Seleka rebels from using the country as a base for launching attacks in the CAR. One of the main responsibilities of French forces has been to patrol the roads leading from Cameroon to Bangui. French troops use Cameroon as a staging base and have access to a major airway. French forces disembarked at the Cameroonian port of Douala and moved heavy equipment and troops closer to the Central African Republic using the Cameroonian rail network. Cameroon is French main supply line. Boko Haram attacks in north may hinder tourism, but the south will be stable. Thick vegitation in the east, and major hills in the north. Difficult and remote territory along borders.

Armenia

Yerevan President Serzh Sarkisian. Republican Party. Since 2008. Robert Kocharyan 98-2008. Levon Ter-Petrosyan 91-98. First pres of Armenia. Led the Karabakh movement for the unification of the Armenian-populated Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia in 1988. Lost presidential election to Serzh in 2008. Founded the main opposition party, the Armenian National Congress. Nagorno-Karabakh. Russian mediated discussions in Jan 2012. Move toward US-Iranian raprochement may upset the status quo. Disputed territory in 1988 during collapse of Soviet Union. Was part of Azerbaijan, but Armenia sought to annex it since majority of population was Armenian. War lasted until 1994 when Armenia won. Negotiations by Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe's Minsk Group - Russia, US, and France as co-chairs. But Armenia was not interested in a settlement, and Russia wants to keep the status-quo. November negotiations spurred by US and Turkey. Turkey wants US involvement on the issue in exchange for accepting the Iranian negotiations. Turkey hopes to normalize relations w Armenia. Turkey had tried to normalize these relations in 2009, but Baku was furious. 5,000 troops are stationed in Armenia Entirely dependent on Russia in almost every aspect. But Iranian influence through trade and energy exports could challenge Russia. W Eastern Partnership Program, Russia threatened to raise gas prices while offering financial and security incentives if it halted integration with EU. Then joined Customs Union Could challenge Russia's economic and political influence in Armenia by increasing natural gas exports. The Iran-Armenia pipeline could be refurbished. More Iranian gas would allow Armenia to diversify. In Azerbaijan, it holds concerns about Azerbaijan's influence on the significant Azeri minority in Iran and may seek a resolution. Azerbaijan has sought to balance Iran by allying with rivals such as Israel. Recent border incidents have stoked tensions. US and EU have been trying to lure Armenia away from the Russian camp for years. But Russia owns the Armenian economy and there are 5,000 soldiers in Yerevan. And the Russians provide strategic level of protection that allows them to keep the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh

Ireland

Capital - Dublin Ruling party - Fine Gael, Junior coalition partner - Labor Party Irish Republican Army - terrorist organization trained by Soviets. Formed in the 1920's as a nationalist paramilitary organization. Attacked british interests to gain Irish independence, and merge with Northern Ireland. The first split occurred in 1969, mainly because of a disagreement over ideology and the implementation of force. The result was the creation of the Official Irish Republican Army and the Provisional Irish Republican Army. The former represented the group's Marxist-oriented faction, which, having no military capacity, opposed an armed campaign against the British. The Provisional IRA -- the more militant faction -- was intent on escalating the armed campaign against the British and Northern Irish. The problem was that it was poorly armed, and it seemed to have adopted the Marxist ideology mainly as a way to ensure a steady flow of modern Soviet-bloc weapons from countries such as Libya, the Soviet Union and Yemen and militant groups such as the Palestinian Liberation Organization. Had strong ties to Basque groups, FARC, and PLO. In addition to sharing bombmaking and urban warfare techniques, these groups also provided weapons and funding to IRA militants. After the Provisional IRA's cease-fire in 1994, the group fractured again, this time into the Continuity Irish Republican Army and the Real Irish Republican Army, with a combined membership estimated to be in the hundreds. Several IRA factions, including the Continuity IRA and the Real IRA, have been designated as terrorist organizations by the United States and the United Kingdom, while the Provisional IRA has been deemed a terrorist organization by only the United Kingdom. Today, both the Continuity IRA and the Real IRA occasionally target government security installations in Ireland, mainly with small improvised explosive devices and occasional vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices. However, factions now rarely use the kind of large vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices that the Provisional IRA used to such devastating effect from 1969 to 2001. The Good Friday Agreement in 1998 formalized, among other things, a system of government in Northern Ireland and the relationships between the United Kingdom, Ireland and Northern Ireland. The IRA still exists, but is very weak.